Population

<html><body><p>The Reserve Bank of Australia governor Philip Lowe has warned that "history suggests that shifts in population growth can have large effects on the housing market."

It was his bluntest warning yet about the dangers of the current house price boom across most of the country.

The RBA boss affirmed the financial regulators were "watching carefully" to see if home lending restrictions were necessary while giving a speech at the Australian Financial Review's Business Summit.

"There are many moving parts at present," he noted.

"Record low interest rates; a shift in preferences towards houses and away from apartments; strong demand for housing outside our largest cities; large government incentives for first-home buyers and home builders; and the slowest population growth in a century," he observed.

"Time will tell as to how these various factors ultimately balance out, but history suggests that shifts in population growth can have large effects on the housing market."

"At its recent meetings, the board has discussed developments in the housing market, including the rising housing prices across most of the country.

"Looser standards would increase medium-term risks and add to the upward pressure on prices, so would be of concern," he advised.

Lowe said he recognised that low interest rates were one of the factors contributing to higher housing prices "and that high and rising housing prices raise concerns for many people."

"I would like to reiterate that the RBA does not target housing prices, nor would it make sense to do so. 

"I recognise that low interest rates are one of the factors contributing to higher housing prices and that high and rising housing prices raise concerns for many people. 

"There are various tools, other than higher interest rates, to address these concerns, leaving monetary policy to maintain its strong focus on the recovery in the economy, jobs and wages," he noted.</p></body></html>

The RBA governor Philip Lowe noted "history suggests that shifts in population growth can have large effects on the housing market."

jchancellor

RBA boss Dr Philip Lowe warns on low population growth impact on housing

<html><body>
<div>Population growth in Australia has slowed from its recent peak of a shade above 405,000 per annum in September 2013 back to around 354,600 per annum on the latest figures.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>This headline number will have some way to fall yet, with the December 2014 figures yet to be reported.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>However, a rebound is in the post in time.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>In the summer month of January 2015, traditionally a strong month for long term arrivals, the <a href="https://www.abs.gov.au/ausstats/abs@.nsf/mf/3401.0/" target="_blank"><em>Australian Bureau of Statistics</em> figures</a> recorded a bounce from 52,160 to 76,310, although the January result is still 9 per cent lower than one year ago.</div>
<div> </div>
<div><img src="/images/2015/06/09/wargent1.jpg" alt="" width="751" height="366"></div>
<div> </div>
<div> </div>
<div>
<div>On the departures side, however, long term and permanent departures also declined in January from 46,740 to 42,100, which notably is a below<strong> </strong>figure than the prior year comparative.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>On a rolling annual basis net long term migration of 318,560 sits some 22 per cent below the most recent peak of January 2013.</div>
<div> </div>
<div><img src="/images/2015/06/09/wargent2.jpg" alt="" width="673" height="324"></div>
<div> </div>
<div>
<div>When it comes to the long term and permanent departures data, stated intentions when ticking boxes on forms are one thing, but today's reality is quite another.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Boomerang departures are one of the reasons that our capital cities appear so crowded, despite the apparently slowing population growth data.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>On the one hand we now have record high short term arrivals at close to 7 million per annum.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>And meanwhile most of those who claim to be migrating overseas permanently have "pulled a boomerang" within a year of leaving.</div>
<br><div>
<a href="https://www.abs.gov.au/ausstats/abs@.nsf/Latestproducts/3401.0Main%20Features2Jan%202015?opendocument&amp;tabname=Summary&amp;prodno=3401.0&amp;issue=Jan%202015&amp;num=&amp;view=" target="_blank">Analysis</a> of prior years' data from the <em>Australian Bureau of Statistics</em> reveals that while ostensibly more than 380,000 Australians left the country on a long term or "permanent" basis over the past 12 months, more than 80 per cent of them are likely return home within just a year!</div>
<br><div><span><span><em>"Analysis shows that the majority of those with an intention of permanently departing, return to Australia within the following year. </em></span></span></div>
<div><span><span><em> </em></span></span></div>
<div><span><span><em>For example, in the calendar year 2011, out of the 84,240 Australian residents who stated they were departing permanently, only 15,890 spent 12 months or more overseas."</em></span></span></div>
<div> </div>
<div>So much for the "long term-ness" of the long term departures, if you'll kindly pardon my dreadful English.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Perhaps those pastures further afield aren't as greener-er as what people think they are, and that's why they done that.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>OK I'm getting rather grammatically bogged down here, so let's move on to look at...</div>
<div> </div>
<div><strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">Record high visitors (the delayed Oprah effect)</span></strong></div>
<div> </div>
<div>Shifting seamlessly along to short term arrivals we can see that visitors to Australia have sprinted to their highest level on record at more than 6.9 million.</div>
<div> </div>
<div><img src="/images/2015/06/09/wargent3.jpg" alt="" width="829" height="390"></div>
<div> </div>
<div>
<div>The idea that Kiwis are flocking home to rediscover the beauty of their homeland is an appealing narrative, but also one that has been overplayed.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>In fact, record numbers of New Zealanders arrived in Australia in the past year on a "short term" basis at close to 1.25 million.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>There has also been a notable surge in the number of American visitors to Australia to a record 555,300 on a rolling annual basis.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Oprah Winfrey said it'd happen, and it seems she was right.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Although the detailed figures do show a spike relating to her December 2010 visit - from memory she brought along a few hundred whooping guests, and even greater numbers of security guards and filming crew - it is only in the past 12 months that American visitor numbers have really picked up strongly.<br><br>Naturally the decline of the Aussie dollar towards the mid 70 cent range against the greenback is a big driver here. </div>
<div> </div>
<div><img src="/images/2015/06/09/wargent4.jpg" alt="" width="893" height="434"></div>
<div> </div>
<div><span>And the below mega-trend, I've documented here often previously.</span></div>
<div><span> </span></div>
<div><span><img src="/images/2015/06/09/Screen%20Shot%202015-06-09%20at%209.45.00%20AM.png" alt="" width="744" height="341"></span></div>
</div>
<div> </div>
<div>
<span>Expect more of the same based upon what I've seen around the traps in 2015.</span><br><br><strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">Asian settlers </span></strong><br><br><div>In terms of settlers in Australia the trend has clearly been away from Brits and Kiwis since the financial crisis and towards Chinese and Indians.<br><br>
</div>
<div>However, there was a reasonable rebound in the number of New Zealander settlers in January so this particular downtrend may have run its course for now, although Kiwi settler numbers are still clearly down by 10 per cent or so from a year ago.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Poms clearly are evidently still opting to stay at home, though.</div>
<div> </div>
<div><img src="/images/2015/06/09/Screen%20Shot%202015-06-09%20at%209.46.16%20AM.png" alt="" width="817" height="411"></div>
<div> </div>
<div><span>The last 12 months has seen some 71,310 settlers from Asia, another mega-trend that shows no real sign of abating.</span></div>
<div><span> </span></div>
<div><span><img src="/images/2015/06/09/Screen%20Shot%202015-06-09%20at%209.47.21%20AM.png" alt="" width="828" height="418"></span></div>
<div> </div>
<div> </div>
<div>
<div id="post-body-3022590133789834441" class="post-body entry-content">
<div><strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">The wrap</span></strong></div>
<div> </div>
<div>The rolling long term net migration figures imply that Australian population growth will sink back towards the low 300,000s range over the near term.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>However, a complex range of factors will combine to drive a rebound in due course. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>Not least of these trends is that most who claim to be slinging their hooks for good don't even make it past year one before "pulling a boomerang".</div>
<div> </div>
</div>
<div class="post-footer">
<em><span>PETE WARGENT</span> is the co-founder of <a href="https://allenwargent.com/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">AllenWargent</a> property buyers (London, Sydney) and a best-selling author and <a href="https://petewargent.blogspot.com/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">blogger</a>.</em><br><p><em>His book '<a href="https://www.bigskypublishing.com.au/Books/General-Interest/Four-Green-Houses--and-a-Red-Hotel/1015/productview.aspx" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">Four Green Houses and a Red Hotel</a>' is out now.</em></p>
</div>
</div>
</div>
</div>
</div>
<div> </div>
</body></html>

pwargent-M4siyDbqQY

Boomerang departures drive population growth rebound: Pete Wargent

<html><body>
<h3 class="post-title entry-title"> </h3>
<div id="post-body-5183975004734142219" class="post-body entry-content">
<div>
<span style="line-height: 1.3em;">After a bit of pause in the ABS </span><a href="https://www.abs.gov.au/AUSSTATS/abs@.nsf/Lookup/3401.0Main+Features1Apr%202015?OpenDocument" target="_blank" style="line-height: 1.3em;">Overseas Arrivals and Departures</a><span style="line-height: 1.3em;"> survey we have had no fewer than </span><strong style="line-height: 1.3em;"><span style="text-decoration: underline;">seven</span></strong><span style="line-height: 1.3em;"> such releases since May...and there's yet another in the post in the next couple of days too!</span>
</div>
<div> </div>
<div>The slowdown in Australia's population growth to +330,000 in 2014 was straightforward enough to predict for those who were paying attention - with Sydney and Melbourne leading the population growth charts - and regular readers will be well across the drivers of the downtrend.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>While most commentary is finally just about latching on to last year's story, I'm now getting more interested in trying to anticipate the eventual rebound - the causes thereof, and the likely timing.<br><br>Let's have a look at a four trends to watch, and particularly the role of exchange rates thereon.</div>
<br><strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">1 - Net long term migration</span></strong><br><br><div>Rolling annual net long term migration slowed considerably from around 411,000 in January 2013 to just above 300,000 by April 2015.</div>
<div> </div>
<div><a href="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-CsKHLxNp92E/VZhovUp0ezI/AAAAAAAAWog/kgkTP1sMsjg/s1600/Arr1.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></div>
<br><div class="separator"><a href="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-CsKHLxNp92E/VZhovUp0ezI/AAAAAAAAWog/kgkTP1sMsjg/s1600/Arr1.jpg"><img src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-CsKHLxNp92E/VZhovUp0ezI/AAAAAAAAWog/kgkTP1sMsjg/s640/Arr1.jpg" width="640" height="280"></a></div>
<br><div><span>The downtrend is still in place but appears to be slowing. </span></div>
<div><span> </span></div>
<div><span>In any case, following some analysis of<span> previous years' data the ABS itself <a href="https://petewargent.blogspot.com.au/2015/06/boomerang-departures-to-drive" target="_blank">cast doubts</a> on the relevance of the permanent departures statistics.</span></span></div>
<span><span><br></span></span><span><span>The ABS research implied that while ostensibly more than 380,000 Australians left the country on a </span></span><span><span>long term or "permanent" basis over the past 12 months, a high proportion of them are likely return home within just a year. </span></span><span>Observed the ABS:</span><br><div><span> </span></div>
<div>
<span><em>"Analysis shows that the majority of those with an intention of permanently departing, return to Australia within the following year. </em></span><em><span><span>For example, in the calendar year 2011, out of the 84,240 Australian residents who stated they were departing permanently, only 15,890 spent 12 months or more overseas</span><span>."</span></span></em>
</div>
<br><div>Whether or not this proves to be true in the future is less clear, but it does serve as a timely reminder that all is often not as it seems when it comes to demographic trends.</div>
<br><div><strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">2 - Record short term arrivals</span></strong></div>
<div> </div>
<div>As the Aussie dollar has declined from around 110 US cents close to just 75 cents, the domestic economy is set to benefit from record high short term arrivals, now tracking at well over 7 million in the year to April 2015.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>The chart below suggests that we might expect trends in short term arrivals and departures to dovetail with respect to changes in the strength or otherwise of our currency.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>With the awesome strength of the Aussie dollar through the mining investment boom it was no surprise to see short term departures exploding higher.<br><br>
</div>
<div>I even took full advantage of this myself to undertake a rather extravagant world cruise in 2011, something which seems somewhat less appealing now, at least from a cost perspective!</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Now that the dollar has depreciated it is all but inevitable that this rampant trend towards overseas travel will reverse and comparatively fewer Australians will choose to travel and holiday overseas.</div>
<div> </div>
<div><a href="https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-aeVfFBTDcNc/VZhoxu3OR4I/AAAAAAAAWo0/POJh6u2LYwI/s1600/arr4.jpg">Click to enlarge</a></div>
<br><a href="https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-aeVfFBTDcNc/VZhoxu3OR4I/AAAAAAAAWo0/POJh6u2LYwI/s1600/arr4.jpg"><img src="https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-aeVfFBTDcNc/VZhoxu3OR4I/AAAAAAAAWo0/POJh6u2LYwI/s640/arr4.jpg" width="640" height="290"></a><br><br>In fact, although the above chart doesn't yet appear to suggest so, this has already begun to happen, which is a net positive for the domestic economy.<br><br><div>The below chart records the ratio of short term departures to short term arrivals by month, and reveals that the ratio has steadily fallen to sit at its lowest level since the first quarter of calendar year 2011.</div>
<div> </div>
<div><a href="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-d6rsK8_HQD0/VZhow5WJAMI/AAAAAAAAWoo/hGaZ0NeT8ys/s1600/Arr8.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></div>
<br><a href="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-d6rsK8_HQD0/VZhow5WJAMI/AAAAAAAAWoo/hGaZ0NeT8ys/s1600/Arr8.jpg"><img src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-d6rsK8_HQD0/VZhow5WJAMI/AAAAAAAAWoo/hGaZ0NeT8ys/s640/Arr8.jpg" width="640" height="274"></a><br><br>The Aussie dollar likely has further to fall, and in turn so too does this ratio.<br><br><span style="text-decoration: underline;"><strong>3 - Compositional shift of arrivals</strong></span><br><br>When people observe housing market trends and opine that the role of Chinese investment might be a passing fad, they might want to think again.<br><div> </div>
<div>Credit Suisse projects that Chinese investors will drop some $60 billion into Australia's housing markets over the five years to 2020, more than double the estimated $28 million in the preceding five years. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>Meanwhile the number of Chinese USD millionaires is expected to rise at 14% per annum (Chinese stock market corrections notwithstanding!) thereby doubling to 2.6 million by the end of the decade.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>While there must be an element of guesswork and extrapolation involved here, I've seen nothing in the housing market activity which causes me to cast doubt on the estimates.</div>
<br><div>Comfortably the most significant change in short term visitors to Australia has been the explosion in Chinese short term arrivals since the turn of the century.</div>
<br><div>In February 2015, the month which incorporated Chinese New Year, an astonishing 198,700 visitors came to Australia from China, Hong Kong and Taiwan combined.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>
<a href="https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-FriL70hzVFg/VZjW4f53AUI/AAAAAAAAWp8/RZosv0cwvJw/s1600/Chindia.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a><br><br><div class="separator"><a href="https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-FriL70hzVFg/VZjW4f53AUI/AAAAAAAAWp8/RZosv0cwvJw/s1600/Chindia.jpg"><img src="https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-FriL70hzVFg/VZjW4f53AUI/AAAAAAAAWp8/RZosv0cwvJw/s640/Chindia.jpg" width="640" height="276"></a></div>
</div>
<span>Interestingly the "original" data for the three months to April also revealed unprecedented numbers of Indian short term arrivals at 66,500, while the Americans are also enjoying the shifts in the exchange rate with rolling annual number of short term visitors rising to a record 563,800.</span><br><div class="separator"> </div>
<br><div>We can expect that eventually some of these trends will flow through to Australia's permanent settler figures.</div>
<br><div>While the number of Brits settling is threatening to become immaterial - at just 590 settlers in April, less than a quarter of the levels seen in 2008 - and permanent New Zealander immigrants are trending sharply down, Indian and Chinese settlers are rapidly tracking at or close to record levels.<br><br>
</div>
<div><a href="https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-f8touQwzFSo/VZhowb-0JsI/AAAAAAAAWos/5pVKyqyQIbY/s1600/Arr6.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></div>
<div> </div>
<a href="https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-f8touQwzFSo/VZhowb-0JsI/AAAAAAAAWos/5pVKyqyQIbY/s1600/Arr6.jpg"><img src="https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-f8touQwzFSo/VZhowb-0JsI/AAAAAAAAWos/5pVKyqyQIbY/s640/Arr6.jpg" width="640" height="278"></a><br><div> </div>
<div>Indeed, there were 73,370 settlers hailing from Asia in the year to April 2015 as compared to fewer than 15,000 from Europe.</div>
<br>It's a huge shift in composition that is underway.<br><div class="separator"> </div>
<strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">4 - Record education enrolments in Q1 2015</span></strong><br><br><div>One other unfolding trend to watch which is also tied to the depreciation of the currency is the record number of foreign student enrolments seen in the first quarter of 2015.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>The ABS series shows that the rolling annual number of short term arrivals into Australia in the year to April for education has blasted to its highest ever level at 421,400.</div>
<div> </div>
<div><a href="https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-rfQpqET2No8/VZhovXWXDPI/AAAAAAAAWoc/7GjRMo7Gbjo/s1600/Arr5.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></div>
<br><div class="separator"><a href="https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-rfQpqET2No8/VZhovXWXDPI/AAAAAAAAWoc/7GjRMo7Gbjo/s1600/Arr5.jpg"><img src="https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-rfQpqET2No8/VZhovXWXDPI/AAAAAAAAWoc/7GjRMo7Gbjo/s640/Arr5.jpg" width="640" height="280"></a></div>
<br><div>This is another demographic trend which is heavily skewed towards Asian participants, and Chinese students in particular, and one we can expect to keep on growing.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>
<span><em>PETE WARGENT is the co-founder of <a href="https://allenwargent.com/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">AllenWargent</a> property buyers (London, Sydney) and a best-selling author and <a href="https://petewargent.blogspot.com/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">blogger</a>.</em><br></span>
<p><em>His latest book is <a href="https://www.bigskypublishing.com.au/Books/General-Interest/Four-Green-Houses--and-a-Red-Hotel/1015/productview.aspx" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">Four Green Houses and a Red Hotel</a>.</em></p>
</div>
</div>
</body></html>

Watch the dollar driven demographic dispositions: Pete Wargent

<html><body>
<div>The 2016 Census showed that Australia still has an ageing population, and the number of deaths continues to rise to record highs, in turn meaning that the natural increase in the population has been slowing. </div>
<div class="separator"> </div>
<div class="separator"><a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/09/28/1.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></div>
<div class="separator"> </div>
<div>
<div class="separator"><img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2017/09/28/1.jpg" alt=""></div>
</div>
<div> </div>
<div>The ageing of the population has been combated through the immigration programme, which is largely - if not exclusively - tilted towards younger migrants into Australia.<br><br>While new government figures show that 457 visa issuance is falling, student visas are recording double digit rates of growth, and now sit at the highest level on record.<br><br>The rising tide of international students will largely impact the inner suburbs of Melbourne and Sydney. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>And annual net overseas migration has really picked up the pace over the past six quarters, up by +30 per cent to +231,890 in the March 2017 quarter. </div>
<p><a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/09/28/2.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></p>
<p><img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2017/09/28/2.jpg" alt=""></p>
<div>This surge in net overseas migration has pushed the annual national rate of growth in the estimated resident population back up to +1.6 per cent or +389,072. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>Population growth in the seasonally strong March quarter was particularly stark in 2017 at +126,138. </div>
<p><a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/09/28/3.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></p>
<p><img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2017/09/28/3.jpg" alt=""></p>
<div>Headcount growth remains a bit below the rate of growth seen during the headiest of the mining boom migration years, but is nevertheless very strong.</div>
<div> </div>
<div><strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">Apartment glut picked off</span></strong></div>
<div> </div>
<div>Moreover, there's a concentration issue afoot, with immigrants overwhelmingly heading to three main regions: Sydney, Melbourne, and south-east Queensland. </div>
<div> </div>
<div class="separator"><a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/09/28/4.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></div>
<div class="separator"> </div>
<div>
<div class="separator"><img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2017/09/28/4.jpg" alt=""></div>
</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Internally, migration continues to take folks away from Sydney (nothing new there, it's been happening for decades).<br><br>Some Sydneysiders are taking their boosted equity out to regional New South Wales - especially to the South Coast and to the Hunter - and others are heading north to Queensland.<br><br>Western Australia, Northern Territory, and South Australia continue to lose residents at a concerning rate, with internal migrants largely headed to Melbourne (for jobs) or south-east Queensland (for climate, lifestyle...and, well, hopefully a job).<br><br>A smattering of interstate migrants are also bound for Hobart and Canberra. </div>
<p><a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/09/28/5.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></p>
<p><img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2017/09/28/5.jpg" alt=""></p>
<div>The net result has been to send Victoria's annual population growth steaming up to a gold-rush-like +149,374 or +2.43 per cent, which is a staggering rate of growth, and renders predictions of a Melbourne dwelling oversupply meaningless, at least until population growth slows. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>From a year earlier, growth in the estimated resident population has also accelerated very strongly in New South Wales (+123,296) and Queensland (+75,372).<br><br>The capital cities account for the great bulk of the population growth in the two most populous states, and somewhat less so in Queensland's case. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>Annual population growth appears to have steadied in Western Australia, after some downward revisions to previous estimates. </div>
<div> </div>
<div><a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/09/28/6.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></div>
<div>
<br><div class="separator"><img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2017/09/28/6.jpg" alt=""></div>
</div>
<div><strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;"> </span></strong></div>
<div><strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">Build, and they may come</span></strong></div>
<div> </div>
<div>With the ageing of the population and an accelerating 'death bust', if that's not too dramatic a term, growth in headcount has become much more focused on net immigration than natural increase. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>It's interesting to note that the sharp increase in the estimated resident population over the past 18 months has largely impacted the apartment construction hotspots of Sydney, Melbourne, and Brisbane. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>A high number of apartment completions are expected in 2017, yet with the estimated resident population increasing by more than 126,000 in the first three months of the calendar year alone, the assumed apartment glut may not deliver the jolt previously anticipated. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>
<p class="p1"><span class="s1">PETE WARGENT is the co-founder of <a href="https://allenwargent.com/" target="_blank"><span class="s2">AllenWargent</span></a> property buyers (London, Sydney) and a best-selling author and <a href="https://petewargent.blogspot.com/" target="_blank"><span class="s2">blogger</span></a>.</span></p>
<p class="p2"><span class="s3"><em>His latest book is </em><a href="https://www.bigskypublishing.com.au/Books/General-Interest/Four-Green-Houses--and-a-Red-Hotel/1015/productview.aspx" target="_blank"><span class="s2"><em>Four Green Houses and a Red Hotel</em></span></a><em>.</em></span></p>
</div>
</body></html>

Build and they may come: Pete Wargent on the headcount and apartment glut speculation

<html><body>
<p><span style="line-height: 1.3em;">In case it wasn't already obvious from reading this blog, I absolutely love analysing data flows, and I particularly love it when the numbers "just work"!</span></p>
<p>Immigration and population growth is a great case in point.</p>
<p>There was a huge surge in immigration and population growth to more than 450,000 per annum through the mining boom, which naturally slowed as the peak was passed and unemployment began to rise.</p>
<p>I've been hinting on this blog for a while that population growth probably bottomed out in 2015 and by now is probably rising again, though I haven't had any hard data to back that up just yet.</p>
<p>This is partly because a better performing Australian economy is now attracting more migrants - annual employment growth of about +2.3 per cent has been far outpacing population growth of about +1.3 per cent, helping the unemployment rate to cascade into a 28 month downtrend.</p>
<p>And secondly because, largely unrecognised by commentary, a relaxation of visa rules will see tens of thousands of international students acquire permanent residency through the "back door" of higher education.</p>
<div><strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">Immigration rises again</span></strong></div>
<div> </div>
<div>There was a significant +14 per cent year-on-year jump in the number of permanent and long term arrivals in February to 91,590, while the number of permanent and long term departues wasn't much changed at +31,700, for a net monthly inflow of just under 60,000.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>I wouldn't read too much into one month of figures, granted, but mapping the data on a rolling annual basis showed a rise in net immigration for the first time in two years. </div>
<div id="post-body-6916561749567946338" class="post-body entry-content">
<br><a href="/images/2016/04/8/A3.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
</div>
<div class="post-body entry-content">
<img src="/images/2016/04/8/A3.jpg" alt=""><br><br><div>The share of settlers from Asia over the year to February continued to increase to its highest ever level at +58.1 per cent, largely at the expense of arrivals from the United Kingdom and New Zealand. </div>
<br><a href="/images/2016/04/8/A4.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
</div>
<div class="post-body entry-content">
<img src="/images/2016/04/8/A4.jpg" alt=""><br><div> </div>
<div><strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">Record short term arrivals help rebalancing</span></strong></div>
<div> </div>
<div>The lower dollar is very slowly but surely helping the rebalancing of the economy, with a record 7.55 million short term arrivals in the year to February.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Australia is a wealthy nation when measured in per capita terms, yet provided the dollar stays low enough for long enough evenutally there could even come a time when short term arrivals match the number of our own overseas trips, as more Aussies opt to holiday at home, thereby boosting the economy. In the words of British Rail, "we're getting there".</div>
<br><a href="/images/2016/04/8/A5.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
</div>
<div class="post-body entry-content"> </div>
<div class="post-body entry-content">
<img src="/images/2016/04/8/A5.jpg" alt=""><br><div> </div>
<div>The annual number of short term arrivals from China, Hong Kong &amp; Taiwan (1.44 million) is poised to eclipse those from New Zealand &amp; Oceania imminently (1.49 million). </div>
<br><div class="separator"><a href="/images/2016/04/8/A1.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></div>
<div class="separator"><img src="/images/2016/04/8/A1.jpg" alt=""></div>
<br><strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">Education arrivals going vert!</span></strong><br><br><div>With the share of overseas born Aussies now at a 120 year high, more than 2 million persons per annum are venturing Down Under to visit friends and relatives, which in turn reinforces the strength in the number of visitors from Asia. </div>
<br><a href="/images/2016/04/8/A6.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
</div>
<div class="post-body entry-content">
<img src="/images/2016/04/8/A6.jpg" alt=""><br><div> </div>
<div>The most significant demographic shift of all has been the near-exponential surge in education arrivals, which bolted to another new record high of 95,100 in February, taking the annual total past half a million for the first time on record. </div>
<div> </div>
<div class="separator"><a href="/images/2016/04/8/A2.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></div>
<div class="separator"><img src="/images/2016/04/8/A2.jpg" alt=""></div>
<br><div class="separator">This is extremely significant, as in the years ahead tens of thousands of these international students will become permanent residents, largely in the largest capital cities.</div>
<div class="separator"> </div>
<div class="separator"><strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">The wrap</span></strong></div>
<div> </div>
<div>Well, it has certainly been a while coming, but February saw the first rebound in immigration in a couple of years.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>In truth, population growth never really slowed that much in the largest capital cities anyway - still chugging along at a thunderous 80,000 to 90,000 per annum - the slowdown was more of a resources and a regional thing. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>In any case from observing the ABS data and from mapping out official government forecasts it looks as though population growth probably bottomed out at around 310,000 per annum, and is set to increase to about 340,000 in 2016, and to beyond 400,000 per annum before the end of the decade.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Perhaps just as relevantly, it is important to note that the population growth is becoming increasingly centralised and focussed on a handful of capital cities, a trend which will only accelerate thanks to Asian and international student migration. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>
<p><span><em>PETE WARGENT is the co-founder of <a href="https://allenwargent.com/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">AllenWargent</a> property buyers (London, Sydney) and a best-selling author and <a href="https://petewargent.blogspot.com/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">blogger</a>.</em><br></span></p>
<p><em>His latest book is <a href="https://www.bigskypublishing.com.au/Books/General-Interest/Four-Green-Houses--and-a-Red-Hotel/1015/productview.aspx" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">Four Green Houses and a Red Hotel</a>.</em></p>
</div>
</div>
</body></html>

Population growth to rebound in 2016: Pete Wargent

<html><body>
<div>There's quite a bit been said on the apparent mass exodus from Sydney.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Again, there's a strong element truth to this story.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>But it's equally important not to take away the wrong visual image from this. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>The fact is, New South Wales always loses people interstate, and it always will, largely to Brisbane, south east Queensland, and even to Melbourne.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>In reality, though, the numbers leaving the state on a net basis were dramatically lower in the 2011-2016 Census period than they were in the preceding five years.<br><br>And they were much, much lower than they were in the five years before that, with net interstate migration tracking at way under the half the rate of seen from 2001 to 2006.</div>
<p> </p>
<div class="separator"><a href="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-tkZj2K3gX30/We7_dSCSWdI/AAAAAAAAmug/igPMz15WmG8_HIPuqq8mUqdxzrGXqo71gCLcBGAs/s1600/A1.jpg"><img src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-tkZj2K3gX30/We7_dSCSWdI/AAAAAAAAmug/igPMz15WmG8_HIPuqq8mUqdxzrGXqo71gCLcBGAs/s640/A1.jpg" width="640" height="396" data-original-height="831" data-original-width="1343"></a></div>
<p> </p>
<div>
<strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">To the regions...</span></strong><br><br>Now it's true that more people, especially Baby Boomers, have been taking their newly-boosted Sydney equity to move out to regional New South Wales, such as to the Hunter Valley, or to the South Coast.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>However, this has been offset by a marked <a href="https://petewargent.blogspot.co.uk/2017/09/population-growth" target="_blank">increase in immigration to Sydney</a>, as migrants seek employment opportunities.<br><br>The harbour city of Greater Sydney is growing at a faster pace than previously, probably now at somewhere close to 100,000 per annum, which is well ahead of the decade average.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>This will presumably continue for as long as Sydney continues to create <a href="https://petewargent.blogspot.co.uk/2017/09/jobs-boom-to-continue" target="_blank">record job openings</a>. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>The net impact of this dynamic - high immigration and resident Sydneysiders moving outwards or interstate - is that Sydney has a substantial foreign-born population (which now comprises more Chinese-born residents than British-born, a remarkable statistic in its own right).<br><br>There's plenty of disingenuous 'analysis' of the capital city economies, focusing on resources exports and ignoring services exports, for example, while also ignoring Australia's record levels of household wealth and the comparative improvement in standard of living for so many immigrants.<br><br>The Productivity Commission ("PC") has delivered another long report on the importance of the large cities to Australian wealth, and why services industries and employment growth fare best within them, in part due to proximity to other businesses and labour supply.<br><br>The fact is that over the most recent year Sydney (38.6 per cent) and Melbourne (28.4 per cent) have unsurprisingly dominated contributions to Australia's GDP growth, according to analysis by Terry Rawnsley of SGS Economics &amp; Planning.<br><br><strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">Challenges abound</span></strong>
</div>
<div> </div>
<div>All of the above having been said, it's reasonable expect to see interstate migration to south east Queensland accelerating again over the next five years.<br><br>One of the most noteworthy challenges identified by the PC is that about 60 per cent of new jobs are created within 10 kilometres of the Central Business Districts, but housing supply in those locations is not keeping up with this pace of growth by about half.<br><br>The PC found that most jobs that can be reached within 45 minutes by car are located in the inner city, while on the city fringe this is the case for fewer that 20 per cent of jobs.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>By 2050 an additional 10.8 million people are projected to be living in Australia's capital cities, as well as an extra 2.4 million people in the non-capital city areas. </div>
</body></html>

The population exodus from Sydney: Pete Wargent

<html><body>
<p>EXPERT OBSERVER</p>
<p>Aussie population growth was easing even before the COVID-19 outbreak reached our shores and international and state borders were shut. Annual population growth hit a 13½-year low of 1.39 per cent in December 2019.</p>
<p>Population growth rates eased across most states and territories in 2019, led lower by major cities on Australia’s East Coast. Canberra’s population growth rate at 0.99 per cent was the weakest annual pace in 14 years. And annual growth rates have fallen to near 8-year lows in Victoria and NSW. Queensland’s annual population growth rate of 1.57 per cent was the slowest in 3 years.</p>
<p>That said, the resurgence in iron ore mining activity is luring more Aussies and overseas migrants to Western Australia - posting the strongest annual population growth rate in 5½ years.</p>
<p>Perhaps the economic lockdown in the March quarter, 2020 may see a continuation of the mini baby boom? There were already 305,800 babies born in the year to December - a 2-year high!</p>
<p>With the Federal Government yesterday confirming that Australia’s international borders will likely remain shut until at least 2021 due to virus restrictions, Aussies holidaying at home could provide a vital lifeline for Aussie tourism businesses.</p>
<p>In fact, a record 11.3 million overseas trips were taken by Aussie residents in 2019, up by 247,500 from 2018, according to the ABS, Austrade and Tourism Research Australia (TRA) data. So which states had the most outbound tourists? Unsurprisingly, NSW (34 per cent), Victoria (28 per cent) and Queensland (18 per cent) dominated the proportion of short-term residents returning from overseas journeys in 2019.</p>
<p>And when holidaying, visiting friends and family, or travelling overseas for business, Aussies spent a gargantuan $66.6 billion in other countries. So could this potentially offset the $45.4 billion in lost annual international tourism income? Well, yes. Prior to the COVID-19 outbreak, Aussies undertook 117.4 million overnight trips, spending $80.7 billion (interstate $45 billion/intrastate $35.7 billion) last year. And while some interstate borders remain closed, it’s worth noting that intrastate travel (trips within a traveller’s state of residence) accounted for around two thirds of all trips in 2019, according to TRA data.</p>
<p>Australia’s state tourism satellite accounts were released by Austrade a couple of weeks ago. The accounts revealed that in financial year 2018/19, growth in Gross Value Added terms (GVA – excludes taxes paid and takes into account subsidies) was highest for Western Australia (up 13.6 per cent), followed by Tasmania (up 11.1 per cent), Victoria (up 10.8 per cent), Northern Territory (up 9.5 per cent), South Australia (up 8.3 per cent), Queensland (up 3.3 per cent) and NSW (up 2.3 per cent). But GVA fell in the ACT by 6.7 per cent. Across all states and territories, domestic overnight visitors account for 57 per cent of total GVA, followed by day trip visitors (13 per cent) and international visitors (30 per cent).</p>
<p>So which Aussie regions could benefit from a lift in interstate or intrastate visitors? Outside of the major capital cities, the NSW North Coast, Gold Coast, Sunshine Coast, Tropical North Queensland, NSW South Coast, Hunter Valley and Australia’s South West regions were amongst the biggest recipients of interstate and intrastate tourism expenditure in 2018/19.</p>
<p><strong>What do the figures show?</strong></p>
<p><em>Population Statistics – December quarter</em></p>
<p>Australia’s population increased by 349,833 people over the year to December 2019 to 25,522,169 people. Overall, Australia’s annual population growth rate eased from 1.43 to 1.39 per cent – the slowest pace in 13½ years. Natural increase contributed 39.8 per cent to the annual lift in population with 60.2 per cent from migration.</p>
<p>Over the year to December, population growth was strongest in Victoria (1.87 per cent), followed by Queensland (1.57 per cent), Western Australia (1.28 per cent), NSW (1.13 per cent), the ACT (0.99 per cent), Tasmania (0.97 per cent), South Australia (0.90 per cent) and the Northern Territory (-0.38 per cent).</p>
<p>By state and territory, the ACT population growth rate at 0.99 per cent was the weakest annual pace in 14 years. Victoria’s population growth rate hit 8-year lows at 1.87 per cent. NSW’s annual population growth rate of 1.13 per cent was the slowest pace in 7½ years. Tasmania’s annual population growth rate of 0.97 per cent was the slowest rate in 2½ years. And Queensland’s annual population growth rate of 1.57 per cent is the slowest in 3 years.</p>
<p>Western Australian annual population growth of 1.28 per cent was the highest in 5½-years. Annual population growth in South Australia (up 0.90 per cent) is just below 5-year highs. Northern Territory lost 900 residents in 2019.</p>
<p>Australia’s population grew by 70,234 people in the December quarter or 0.3 per cent after growing by 94,382 people in the September quarter.</p>
<p>A net total of 210,600 people (3½-year low) migrated to Australia over year to December, down from 220,400 people in the year to September. Migration growth is down from the peak of 315,700 migrants in the year to December 2008.</p>
<p>There were 305,800 babies born in the year to December - a 2-year high - up from 304,400 births over the year to September.</p>
<p>And there were 166,700 deaths in the past year, up by 1,100 on the year to September.</p>
<p>Natural increase (births less deaths) for the year to December was 139,200 to be down by 5.2 per cent.</p>
<p><strong>State Tourism Satellite Accounts – 2018/19</strong></p>
<p>Australia’s state tourism satellite accounts were released by Austrade a couple of weeks ago and revealed that in financial year 2018/19 total tourism consumption was $152 billion, up 6.2 per cent on 2017/18. Almost three quarters of consumption came from domestic tourism, with growth in the domestic sector outpacing international tourism growth in 2018/19.</p>
<p>And growth in Gross Value Added terms (GVA – excludes taxes paid and takes into account subsidies) was highest for Western Australia (up 13.6 per cent), followed by Tasmania (up 11.1 per cent), Victoria (up 10.8 per cent), Northern Territory (up 9.5 per cent), South Australia (up 8.3 per cent), Queensland (up 3.3 per cent) and NSW (up 2.3 per cent). But GVA fell for the ACT by 6.7 per cent. Across all states and territories, domestic overnight visitors account for 57 per cent of total GVA, followed by day trip visitors (13 per cent) and international visitors (30 per cent).</p>
<p><strong>What are the implications of today’s decision?</strong></p>
<p>Our population growth has long been one of the strongest amongst OECD countries. But Australia’s population boom is at an end due to the virus-enforced closure of our international borders.</p>
<p>The Government has recently announced that it expects net overseas migration – a key driver of population growth – to fall by around 30 per cent in 2019/20 and about 85 per cent in 2021/22. CBA Group economists forecast annual population growth to fall to 0.7 per cent over the period – the slowest pace on record. Of course, this will have a significant impact on the labour and housing markets.</p>
<p>Analysis of tourism data shows that we all have a part to play supporting our regional economies. By holidaying locally we can help Aussies in the accommodation, hospitality, travel and retail sectors get back to work.</p>
</body></html>

j.ballantyne1990-6AQqhLzZaK

Population growth hits 13½-year low: CommSec's Ryan Felsman

<html><body>
<p class="legacy">Australians are among the most mobile populations in the world. More than 40% of us change address every five years, about twice the global average. Yet the level of internal migration – moving within Australia – has gone down over the past four decades.</p>
<p>The proportion of Australians changing state of residence <a href="https://www.abs.gov.au/ausstats/abs@.nsf/Lookup/by%20Subject/2071.0%7E2016%7EMain%20Features%7EPopulation%20Shift:%20Understanding%20Internal%20Migration%20in%20Australia%7E69" target="_blank">fell by 20%</a> between 1981 and 2016, particularly after 1991. Their movement between regions within states – between, say, Brisbane and Mackay – <a href="https://www.abs.gov.au/ausstats/abs@.nsf/Lookup/by%20Subject/2071.0%7E2016%7EMain%20Features%7EPopulation%20Shift:%20Understanding%20Internal%20Migration%20in%20Australia%7E69" target="_blank">dropped by a whopping 25%</a>.</p>
<p><a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/323130/original/file-20200326-168918-jmxrg6.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=1000&amp;fit=clip" target="_blank">Click here</a> to enlarge:</p>
<p><a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/323130/original/file-20200326-168918-jmxrg6.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=1000&amp;fit=clip"><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/323130/original/file-20200326-168918-jmxrg6.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=754&amp;fit=clip" alt=""></a></p>
<p><span class="attribution"><span class="source">Data: ABS Census of Population and Housing, 1981-2016</span>, <span class="license">Author provided</span></span></p>
<p>The decline in migration is a feature of a number of <a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/https://www.routledge.com/Internal-Migration-in-the-Developed-World-Are-we-becoming-less-mobile/Champion-Cooke-Shuttleworth/p/book/9781472478061" target="_blank">advanced economies</a>, including the United States. Policymakers have been concerned this trend heralds a less flexible economy where workers do not move to regions with jobs. If that’s the case, it could prolong recessions and reduce growth.</p>
<p>So why are Australians moving less? Several factors might help explain it.</p>
<h2>Australia is getting older</h2>
<p>Population ageing is one of the main explanations because older people move less than young people. It’s enough to account for 20-30% of the decline in internal migration in Australia.</p>
<p>However, the increase in the share of mobile groups – such as renters, tertiary-educated people and recently arrived immigrants – has <a href="https://qcpr.files.wordpress.com/2020/03/qcpr_working-paper_kalemba-et-al-2020.pdf" target="_blank">fully compensated</a> the downward effect of population ageing. This means the net effect on migration levels of changes in the composition of the Australian population is close to null.</p>
<p>So the decline is not the result of overall changes in population composition. It is the result of deeper behavioural changes. People in their 20s, 30s and 40s are simply moving less today than in the past.</p>
<h2>Working arrangements have changed</h2>
<p>Information and communication technology and the changes in working arrangements brought by the internet are often thought to have contributed to lower migration levels. But, the proportion of individuals who telework remains small. <a href="https://www.researchgate.net/profile/Aude_Bernard/publication/339899498_Decline_in_internal_migration_levels_in_Australia_Compositional_or_behavioural_effect/links/5e6b3077a6fdccf321d93834/Decline-in-internal-migration-levels-in-Australia-Compositional-or-behavioural-effect.pdf" target="_blank">Only 5%</a> of the Australian workforce worked from home at the 2016 census.</p>
<p>Perhaps more significant is the increase in dual-income households. They now account for <a href="https://www.urban.com.au/property-observer" target="_blank">two-thirds of couples</a> compared with 56% in 2001. Because these couples find it more challenging to jointly relocate than traditional male-breadwinner families, this shift <a href="https://qcpr.files.wordpress.com/2020/03/qcpr_working-paper_kalemba-et-al-2020.pdf" target="_blank">explains about 10%</a> of the decline in interstate migration in Australia.</p>
<p>Despite these transformations, the mix of reasons for moving hasn’t changed over the past 15 years. Australians still move mainly for family and work reasons.</p>
<p>So, what is going on?</p>
<p><a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/323142/original/file-20200326-168889-xy3fj2.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=1000&amp;fit=clip" target="_blank">Click here</a> to enlarge:</p>
<p><a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/323142/original/file-20200326-168889-xy3fj2.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=1000&amp;fit=clip"><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/323142/original/file-20200326-168889-xy3fj2.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=754&amp;fit=clip" alt=""></a></p>
<p><span class="attribution"><span class="source">Authors’ calculations using Household, Income and Labour Dynamics in Australia (HILDA) Survey data</span>, <span class="license">Author provided</span></span></p>
<h2>Place attachment plays a part</h2>
<p>In the United States, this downward trend has been linked to “<a href="https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1002/psp.670" target="_blank">rootedness</a>”, the idea that individuals have become more attached their families and communities and are therefore less inclined to relocate.</p>
<p>Such concepts are difficult to measure and quantify. Yet a <a href="https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1002/psp.2225" target="_blank">2019 study</a> showed that Australians with strong place attachment and social networks are less likely to migrate, particularly over long distances. But it is not clear how place attachment has changed over time and whether it has contributed to the decline in internal migration.</p>
<h2>Young people are staying put</h2>
<p>We know young people are moving less than they used to. In 2017, <a href="https://theconversation.com/over-50-of-young-australian-adults-still-live-with-their-parents-and-the-numbers-are-climbing-faster-for-women-120587" target="_blank">56% of Australians below the age of 30</a> were still living at home compared with 47% in 2001. Explanations for this trend include increasing housing costs and delayed union formation.</p>
<p>The consequences not only bring down current migration levels but also in the future. This is because <a href="https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1002/psp.2286" target="_blank">migration is self-reinforcing</a>: having moved in the past increases the chances of moving again. So, young adults who are staying put now are less likely to move later because they have not been exposed early in life to the challenges of relocating.</p>
<p>This means the level of migration in Australia is likely to remain low, but this downward trend may level off as we have seen in the <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0378437119316875" target="_blank">United States</a>.</p>
<h2>Is this new low a problem?</h2>
<p>There is no evidence Australians are less willing to relocate for their jobs, so this downward trend should not have major impacts on the economy.</p>
<p>What is more concerning is <a href="https://qcpr.files.wordpress.com/2020/03/qcpr_working-paper_kalemba-et-al-2020.pdf" target="_blank">some groups have been affected</a> more than others, particularly those in part-time work and in low-paid sectors such as retail and trade. These workers are less mobile than in the past and their share in the workforce has increased.</p>
<p>Individuals with limited resources face <a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/https://digital.lib.washington.edu/researchworks/handle/1773/38220" target="_blank">greater difficulties</a> in being mobile, particularly when faced with rising housing costs and stagnant wages. We need to ensure Australia does not evolve toward a two-tier migration system, in which some can afford to move and others are “trapped”. This could, in the long term, reinforce socio-economic inequalities.<img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/133767/count.gif?distributor=republish-lightbox-basic" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" style="border: none !important; box-shadow: none !important; margin: 0 !important; max-height: 1px !important; max-width: 1px !important; min-height: 1px !important; min-width: 1px !important; opacity: 0 !important; outline: none !important; padding: 0 !important; text-shadow: none !important;"></p>
<p><span><a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/aude-bernard-316886" target="_blank">Aude Bernard</a>, Lecturer, Queensland Centre for Population Research, <em><a href="https://theconversation.com/institutions/the-university-of-queensland-805" target="_blank">The University of Queensland</a></em> and <a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/sunganani-v-kalemba-997197" target="_blank">Sunganani V. Kalemba</a>, PhD candidate, <em><a href="https://theconversation.com/institutions/the-university-of-queensland-805" target="_blank">The University of Queensland</a></em></span></p>
<p>This article is republished from <a href="https://theconversation.com" target="_blank">The Conversation</a> under a Creative Commons license. Read the <a href="https://theconversation.com/australians-are-moving-home-less-why-and-does-it-matter-133767" target="_blank">original article</a>.</p>
</body></html>

Australians are moving home less. Why? And does it matter?

<html><body>
<p class="post-title entry-title">EXPERT OBSERVER</p>
<div>Moves to slow permanent migration to Australia took some effect across recent quarters.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>The natural increase of the population was a bit higher over the 2019 financial year at +142,600.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>And net overseas migration of +238,800 was just +100 higher than it was in the prior year. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>Overall, population growth in FY 2019 was therefore only modestly higher year-on-year at +381,600 (FY 2018: +380,800).</div>
<div class="separator"> </div>
<div class="separator">
<img src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-NZQIqWCq11A/XftAQbU_Y1I/AAAAAAAAzb0/pKAFo-0IVxYhmhH8RKtSPZO0ogHr0gFKgCNcBGAsYHQ/s640/C2.jpg" width="640" height="376" data-original-height="816" data-original-width="1387"> </div>
<div class="separator"> </div>
<div>The rampant population growth of a few years ago has therefore eased a little, although levels of growth do remain very strong. </div>
<p class="post-body entry-content"><img src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-LHpqcnKfzS0/XftAQe19E8I/AAAAAAAAzbs/pcRC-Fl0cck2S3xeszxVlWjAz46wonGYgCNcBGAsYHQ/s640/C3.jpg" width="640" height="376" data-original-height="813" data-original-width="1377"></p>
<div>South-east Queensland as a destination continued to dominate the interstate moves over the financial year, while net interstate migration to Victoria has now calmed down a little.<br><br>People are less inclined to leave Western Australia now than they have been for some years. </div>
<div> </div>
<div class="separator">
<img src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-q-ez-aBzruE/XftAQY2YUhI/AAAAAAAAzbw/pyU_WjwI7iUnShI4BSw-JQbTTocrJCvPgCNcBGAsYHQ/s640/C1.jpg" width="640" height="382" data-original-height="830" data-original-width="1387"> </div>
<div class="separator"> </div>
<div>Piecing it together, some 86 per cent of population growth in FY 2019 was accounted for by New South Wales (+109,400), Victoria (+132,800), and Queensland (+85,700).</div>
<div> </div>
<div class="separator"><img src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-7eTpm9BOtFE/XftARHsgOVI/AAAAAAAAzb4/jX74T6wiBOUhIwoD5DzWwvnsdgW0GStNgCNcBGAsYHQ/s640/C4.jpg" width="640" height="370" data-original-height="815" data-original-width="1407"></div>
<div class="separator"> </div>
<div class="separator">The estimated resident population of the Northern Territory continues to shrink, to be down by -1,200 over the year to June 2019.</div>
<p id="post-body-6058482780182589055" class="post-body entry-content">Nerida Conisbee of REA Group has noted that the Darwin housing market is really struggling, with no positive indicators registered at all.a</p>
<p class="post-body entry-content">Next up we can map these figures against dwelling completions.</p>
<p class="post-body entry-content"><em>PETE WARGENT is the co-founder of AllenWargent property buyers (London, Sydney) and a best-selling author and <a href="https://petewargent.blogspot.com/" target="_blank">blogger</a>. </em></p>
</body></html>

Population growth of 381,600 in FY2019: Pete Wargent

<html><body>
<p>A new report  by the ARC Centre of Excellence in Population Ageing Research (CEPAR), investigating the links between home ownership and population ageing, has found that delays in home purchase are broadly consistent with other social and demographic trends.</p>
<p>While younger people are less likely to commit to buying a home than they were in the past, this “makes sense given that lives have become longer and people are settling down at older ages”, according to the report’s lead author Rafal Chomik, a CEPAR senior research fellow at UNSW Sydney.  </p>
<p>“To give some examples, over the past 50 years the median age of home purchase has increased by six years, from age 27 to 33. Over the same period, the median age of getting a first job has increased by two years; finishing education has been delayed by five years; having a child has been delayed by seven years; and getting married is now taking place eight years later. In fact, the median age at death is now 12 years later, adding scope for people to catch up and purchase a house later in life,” he said.</p>
<p><img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2019/11/18/graph%20.png" alt=""></p>
<p>“This is not to say that affordability and access to housing finance are not important. But the trend toward home purchase delay takes on a new complexion when placed in a broader demographic context,” Chomik added.</p>
<p>In a wide-ranging analysis of the links between housing and demographic ageing, the report, ‘Housing in an ageing Australia: Nest and nest egg?’ concludes that those at greatest disadvantage in retirement are renters. It reports on CEPAR estimates that indicate that relative poverty rates in this group are among the highest in the OECD.</p>
<p>“Home ownership serves multiple purposes and housing outcomes affect financial and personal health and well being over the lifecycle. It acts as a home – the nest – as well as a store of wealth – the nest egg – to guarantee financial security in retirement,” said Chomik.</p>
<p>“As lifespans increase and Australia’s population ages, it is important to understand the interactions between demography and housing.”</p>
<p>Centre Director John Piggott, Scientia Professor of Economics at UNSW Business School, said the research brief, which features and synthesizes research outcomes from more than 20 CEPAR researchers, was timely. It helped crystallise the role of housing in broader policies directed towards social support over the life course.</p>
<p>“Housing has long been a critical pillar in wellbeing and social support through the life course,” he said.</p>
<p>“One way or another, it has always been a central piece of our social support system. It is at least arguable that our social protection system has relied on a high owner-occupier ratio in order to function sustainably and adequately.”</p>
<p><strong>Postponement of home purchase can have consequences</strong></p>
<p>With the Australian retirement system built on the premise of home ownership, excessive or indefinite deferral of home purchase can have consequences.</p>
<p>“Lifetime home ownership rates will decline if some people postpone purchasing a home indefinitely,” said Chomik.</p>
<p>“Banks may be reluctant to lend past a certain age given retirement ages are increasing more slowly. Greater shares may retire with debt. In the report, we look at how ready Australia is for the population purchasing homes at later ages, or not at all, and provide an overview of evidence-based research in this area.</p>
<p>“There is the potential that in the future more older people end up renting, and if so, we need a safety net to support them as the current retirement income system is failing renters.</p>
<p>“Currently, the Age Pension offers the same maximum benefit for owners as it does for renters. The Government’s retirement income system review, due to report next year, is an opportunity to take housing into account more fully with the aim of narrowing the financial gap between renters and owners in the future.”</p>
<p><strong>Older renters continue to experience significant vulnerabilities</strong></p>
<p>The report outlines some of the challenges associated with people postponing their home purchase indefinitely and looks at how it may lead to vulnerabilities at older ages, including relative poverty, housing affordability stress, and, in the extreme case, homelessness.</p>
<p>New estimates, that take account of housing, suggest that older Australian renters have among the highest relative poverty rates in the OECD. They also have greater rental affordability stress than other age groups. While increases in measured homelessness among older women were due to greater numbers in this age group rather than higher incidence, their increased use of homelessness services was disproportionate.</p>
<p><img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2019/11/18/graph%202.png" alt=""></p>
</body></html>

Population

Editor's Picks

Have something to contribute?

Developments

New apartments

New townhouses

News

Population

Editor's Picks

Receive the latest news stories to your inbox

Have something to contribute?

Developments

New apartments

New townhouses

News