Population

<html><body><p>The Reserve Bank of Australia governor Philip Lowe has warned that "history suggests that shifts in population growth can have large effects on the housing market."

It was his bluntest warning yet about the dangers of the current house price boom across most of the country.

The RBA boss affirmed the financial regulators were "watching carefully" to see if home lending restrictions were necessary while giving a speech at the Australian Financial Review's Business Summit.

"There are many moving parts at present," he noted.

"Record low interest rates; a shift in preferences towards houses and away from apartments; strong demand for housing outside our largest cities; large government incentives for first-home buyers and home builders; and the slowest population growth in a century," he observed.

"Time will tell as to how these various factors ultimately balance out, but history suggests that shifts in population growth can have large effects on the housing market."

"At its recent meetings, the board has discussed developments in the housing market, including the rising housing prices across most of the country.

"Looser standards would increase medium-term risks and add to the upward pressure on prices, so would be of concern," he advised.

Lowe said he recognised that low interest rates were one of the factors contributing to higher housing prices "and that high and rising housing prices raise concerns for many people."

"I would like to reiterate that the RBA does not target housing prices, nor would it make sense to do so. 

"I recognise that low interest rates are one of the factors contributing to higher housing prices and that high and rising housing prices raise concerns for many people. 

"There are various tools, other than higher interest rates, to address these concerns, leaving monetary policy to maintain its strong focus on the recovery in the economy, jobs and wages," he noted.</p></body></html>

The RBA governor Philip Lowe noted "history suggests that shifts in population growth can have large effects on the housing market."

jchancellor

RBA boss Dr Philip Lowe warns on low population growth impact on housing

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<p>GUEST OBSERVER</p>
<p>The Eastern seaboard markets have performed counter-cyclically to growth in wages and GDP, both of which are trending below the historical average.</p>
<p>When wages are low but growth in housing is high, the credit used to fund this growth in housing is found elsewhere.</p>
<p>Reportedly, an increased number of Australians coming into retirement have used money in a Self-Managed Super Fund (SMSF) to take out a loan for property. The new normal of low economic growth and low yields from most assets makes east-coast property an economic anomaly.</p>
<p class="Body1">Graph 3 shows the latest data from the Australian Taxation Office on SMSFs. The graph plots the number of SMSFs and the asset allocation to property, at each quarter over the last 5 years.</p>
<p><span><strong>Graph 3: Percentage of Real Estate Assets in SMSFs vs No. SMSFs</strong></span></p>
<p><a href="/images/2016/08/04/Graph_3.jpg" target="_blank"><span><strong>Click to enlarge</strong></span></a></p>
<p><img src="/images/2016/08/04/Graph_3.jpg" alt=""></p>
<p><em><span>Source: ATO, SMSF Statistical Report September 2015</span></em></p>
<p>Without a longer time series, it is difficult to say whether residential property has made up an increasing percentage of retirement portfolios. However, the increase of SMSFs with a fairly consistent rate of allocation to residential real estate suggests this could be one source of growth in the Australian housing market.</p>
<p>From the March to September quarter of 2015, there was an increase of allocation to residential property from SMSFs, of 0.43 percent. This was a time when the Sydney market was coming into its peak growth rates for this cycle.</p>
<p>Interestingly, the same period saw a higher increase in the share of commercial property that composed SMSFs assets. This could be because the ATO sometimes permits the purchase of business premises for fund members to operate in. Commercial property also presents a favourable tax environment, with a capital gains tax of just 10 percent if the property is held for over 12 months.</p>
<p>These trends are important to note as they highlight the sources of demand outside of Australian wages and employment. When there are multiple sources of demand flowing into a locally supplied market, property prices could be affected by the current regulatory uncertainty around superannuation.</p>
<p>It is also important to note that the oldest baby boomers in Australia are now at retirement age. The property purchased through SMSFs will one day need to be liquidated in order to supplement pension income and address extremely high health and aged care costs. If a large number of stock is to be liquidated at once, this could erode some value in the properties owned by retirees, unless offset by an increased population.</p>
<p>Eliza Owen, is market analyst for Onthehouse.com.au and can be contacted <a href="https://www.onthehouse.com.au/" target="_blank">here</a>.</p>
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jchancellor-FAypfDUnLy

Housing and an ageing population: Eliza Owen

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<p>GUEST OBSERVER</p>
<p>In Sydney and Melbourne, the squeeze is on. Population is booming; house prices are still rising; roads and trains are congested.</p>
<p>Australian governments generally have ignored the benefits of relating metropolitan and regional planning.</p>
<p>However, some state governments are now investigating more integrated sectoral and spatial planning strategies, initially through shifting public sector jobs to regional centres. </p>
<p>In particular, improved regional rail connections do work. Already rail investments have brought Ballarat, Geelong and other regional centres closer in travel time to Melbourne than many outer suburbs, and this trend will continue. </p>
<p>Sydney has similar opportunities with regional rail connections, but has not yet exercised them. Rail services to and from Gosford, Newcastle and Wollongong have improved little over recent decades. </p>
<p>Rail bypasses clogged arteries</p>
<p>For decades, policymakers’ preferred solution to congestion has been adding and widening freeways. But promises of faster travel times and freer movement have been illusory. New roads and freeway lanes induce more traffic and will provide short-lived solutions in our biggest cities.</p>
<p>These cities are the main drivers of Australia’s national economy, attracting advanced business service professionals and knowledge providers. </p>
<p>Access to high-value jobs, transport arteries that function well, and better-managed population growth will become critically important to urban economies as these cities move towards populations of 8 million people. </p>
<p>In Sydney and Melbourne, critics are claiming that major new road projects such as WestConnex and the Western Distributor will increase central city traffic congestion, particularly for work-related journeys. </p>
<p>Victoria proves regional rail works</p>
<p>Contrast that with the success of regional rail development. Victoria has invested several billion dollars in a series of projects. These have raised maximum regional train speeds to provincial cities to 160kph, increased reliability, provided new and much faster trains and transformed frequency.</p>
<p>The 119km peak-hour trip from Ballarat to Melbourne before these investments took two hours, with four trains a day on offer. Today 22 daily trains operate in each direction between Melbourne and Ballarat. Boarding the 4.33pm from Southern Cross delivers passengers to Ballarat 65 minutes later. </p>
<p>From Geelong, the transformation has been even greater. The recently completed Regional Rail Link runs 55 daily trains each way. The project was the first to be approved by Infrastructure Australia, backed by A$3.8 billion in state and Commonwealth funding.</p>
<p>Patronage boom calls for more work</p>
<p>These upgrades, however, have become victims of their own success. Some lines have recorded a 300% increase in patronage. Similar increases are projected for the next decade. </p>
<p>Remarkably, within two years of opening, patronage growth has already reached capacity on the inner part of the Regional Rail Link (which segregates metropolitan from country trains for travel to and from central Melbourne). There is little or no capacity for extra trains to be run in peak times. </p>
<p>Trains are becoming ever more crowded. Long-distance commuters have valued their ability to work, read or sleep on these trains, especially during their homeward journeys. They must now compete for seats with others from rapidly expanding western suburbs, which are yet to gain their own suburban train services. </p>
<p>A short-term fix would create longer trains of eight carriages instead of six. A medium-term fix would electrify and provide separate services to the part of the Geelong line that serves the new dormitory suburbs. </p>
<p>These changes need to be complemented by more frequent and better co-ordinated feeder bus services to stations. In addition, easily accessed large commuter carparks need to be built on vacant land on the Melbourne side of the major regional centres.</p>
<p>In the longer term, the answer lies in providing more multiple tracks to fully segregate suburban and regional trains in suburban areas. Providing robust double-line railways in each corridor will prevent the cascade effect that occurs when trains delay each other on single lines. </p>
<p>The completion of level-crossing removals will also allow higher operating speeds and safer operations. Trains will be able to move progressively to maximum speeds of 200kph where feasible rather than 160kph. </p>
<p>Regional cities must avoid past mistakes</p>
<p>These rail investments will further promote population growth in regional cities. Already, regionally developed services, more affordable housing stock and less frantic lifestyles are acting as attractors.</p>
<p>It is essential to integrate the planning of major regional transport projects with spatial planning to avoid the undesirable results of fragmented policy. </p>
<p>Some regional centres are repeating the worst mistakes of metropolitan low-density urban sprawl by expanding on greenfield sites far from town centres. Modelling of Victorian regional towns has shown that they contain in-fill opportunities to at least double existing populations and provide a range of affordable housing options. </p>
<p>To maintain liveability for expected high population growth, heavy rail investment is vital. Carefully targeted regional rail investment can shrink distance, provide access to more jobs and better lifestyles, and contribute to wider housing choices. </p>
<p>This investment is a critical requirement for continued prosperity in Australia’s largest urban centres.</p>
<p><span class="fn author-name"><a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/michael-buxton-1381" target="_blank">Michael Buxton</a> is p</span>rofessor of Environment and Planning, RMIT University and author for <a href="https://theconversation.com/au" target="_blank">The Conversation</a>.</p>
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This is how regional rail can help ease our big cities’ commuter crush

'We don’t know our neighbours' - a cliché of contemporary urban life: Hugh Mackay

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<p>GUEST OBSERVER</p>
<p>The Australian Census came under intense scrutiny in the wake of <a href="https://theconversation.com/au/topics/censusfail-30048">#censusfail</a>. Parliament conducted a review, the Senate an inquiry, and some in the media questioned the entire point. </p>
<p>But cost and privacy concerns aside, population is one of the three pillarsof the economy. </p>
<p>Understanding population characteristics is vital to inform us of challenges and opportunities, and is a necessary input in other economic indicators. The quality and timely population data found in the census is not gathered through any other means. If changes need to be made, it’s in the discussion around the census.</p>
<h2>So we know who is where</h2>
<p>The census is unique in that it is a total survey of the population, covering a range of social and economic variables. At present, it is the only way such data is obtained in Australia. </p>
<p>Without the census, we wouldn’t know how many we are, who we are and where we live. This means important planning and policy issues couldn’t be addressed. The location of schools and hospitals, provision of medical facilities, funding for major infrastructure would all be done without an accurate idea of who is where. </p>
<p>In fact, local, state and federal governments rely heavily on data only available in the census. The number of children, working age population, travel to work information, occupations, housing suitability and vulnerable populations is all data only found in the census.</p>
<p>The census also allows for sub-national analyses to be performed, particularly legislated population estimates and projections. These estimates form the basis of economic indicators such as labour force statistics and gross domestic product per capita.</p>
<p>The estimates and projections also highlight inequalities within society, and provide opportunities for policy responses and development at a regional level.</p>
<p>But the purpose of taking a census goes beyond informing resource allocation, taxation and electoral representation. </p>
<p>The statistical benchmarks used in surveys and studies, research and analysis, and, most importantly, lower level aggregates and groups of interest can only be informed by census data. Low level aggregates allow identification of need. Identification of areas with high proportions of young people who cannot access employment or education can provide much insight into barriers to economic participation.</p>
<p>Quality information about homelessness, minorities, and Indigenous populations is only truly obtained via a census.</p>
<h2>The data we already collect won’t do</h2>
<p>One of the arguments against the census is that we can get the same data elsewhere from the multitude of service providers that already come in contact with the public. </p>
<p>The problem is that these data collections are administrative. They’re collected for a reason and with limited scope. </p>
<p>Centrelink data is collected to provide a service. Information we provide to the tax office ensures tax compliance. Medicare doesn’t keep information about overseas nationals and people who have never had their birth registered, which is an issue in remote and Indigenous communities.</p>
<p>Australia’s large immigrant population would become a blind spot if we were to rely on the data the government already collects, as many aren’t eligible for certain government services. The data collected by Centrelink, the tax office and Medicare don’t provide sufficient scope. So far the census is the only data source that fits the bill.</p>
<h2>Some alternatives</h2>
<p>Population registers are a viable alternative to our five-yearly censuses. Finland uses a computerised system to record population data including births, deaths, marriages, migration and so on. The Netherlands, on the other hand, conducts a virtual census by pulling together digital data from a number of different sources. </p>
<p>These registers offer real-time data, but they require ongoing maintenance and verification and often exceed the cost of our census. Ironically, they also need to be checked against a census. And Germany’s experience shows population registers are not always accurate. </p>
<p>Further, major legislation changes would have to go through for Australia to be able to pool data like this. The establishment of a national population register would be costly and demand interdepartmental government coordination.</p>
<p>We could also look to the United States’ method of conducting surveys in between a 10-yearly census. This mixed methodology was suggested by the ABS in 2015 to cut costs.</p>
<p>However, limited financial upside, together with lower quality data, makes it a risky alternative for Australia. Plus we shouldn’t think of the census as an unrecoverable cost. The Office of National Statistics in the United Kingdom estimated the costs of their 2011 census were recoveredin just over a year.</p>
<h2>The future is data</h2>
<p>So how can we improve our census?</p>
<p>Online census completion will save money, improve data quality and reduce data processing time. However, online collection must be balanced to ensure disadvantaged populations aren’t excluded. The end of the census collector hasn’t arrived just yet.</p>
<p>More importantly, we must define contemporary data needs moving into the future. An informed public conversation about migration, employment, families and our changing population is much needed to gain social licence to collect and use relevant data. </p>
<p>Whether the methodology of census continues as is or we introduce an alternative method of data collection, the key going forward is the question of legitimacy. Steps must be taken to justify the need to take a census, and to assuage privacy and security concerns. Without social license we’ll see the failings of the 2016 census play out over and over again.</p>
<p>Australia’s future relies on strong evidence we can agree on. This isn’t solely the domain of researchers. We all have a stake.</p>
<p><em><span class="fn author-name">Liz Allen is p</span>ostdoctoral fellow, Centre for Aboriginal Economic Policy Research, Australian National University and author for The Conversation. She can be contacted <a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/liz-allen-10193" target="_blank">here</a>.</em></p>
<p> </p>
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In a world awash with data, is the census still relevant?

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<p>GUEST OBSERVER</p>
<p>The latest statistics show Australia's population growth in the last decade has been significantly higher than in other developed countries.</p>
<p>Population growth has profound impacts on Australian life, and sorting myths from facts can be difficult. This is the second article in our series, Is Australia Full?, which aims to help inform a wide-ranging and often emotive debate.</p>
<p>Population change has long been a topic of public debate in Australia, periodically escalating into controversy.</p>
<p>It is inextricably linked to debates about immigration levels, labour force needs, capital city congestion and housing costs, refugee intakes, economic growth in country areas and northern Australia, the “big versus smaller” Australia debate, and environmental pressures.</p>
<p>Views about the rate of population growth in Australia are numerous and mixed. At one end of the spectrum are those who are vehemently opposed to further population increases; at the other end are supporters of substantially higher population growth and a “very big” Australia.</p>
<p>Logically, population debates usually quote Australia’s demographic statistics. But there is value in comparing our population growth in the international context.</p>
<h2>Average growth rates compared globally</h2>
<p>Although growth rates have fluctuated considerably from year to year, statistics just released by the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) show that Australia’s population grew by 3.75 million between 2006 and 2016. This indicates an average annual growth rate of 1.7%.</p>
<p>As the chart below shows, this was quite high compared to other countries and global regions. Over the decade, other English-speaking countries such as New Zealand, Canada and the US all experienced growth rates lower than Australia’s. The world’s more developed countries in aggregate grew by an annual average of 0.3%.</p>
<p>The world’s population as a whole increased by an average of 1.2% per year.</p>
<p><a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/07/05/6%20july%20expert.jpg" target="_blank"><span>Click to enlarge</span></a></p>
<p><img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2017/07/05/6%20july%20expert.jpg" width="700" height="571"></p>
<p>According to the UN Population Division, Australia ranked 90th out of 233 countries in terms of population growth rate over the decade. The countries or territories with higher growth rates were mostly less developed countries, particularly in Africa, and the oil-rich Gulf states. The only developed countries with faster rates of growth were Singapore, Luxembourg and Israel.</p>
<h2>Why Australia’s population growth rate is higher</h2>
<p>There are two main reasons for Australia’s high growth.</p>
<p>Net overseas migration (immigration minus emigration) is one major factor. It has been generating a little over half (56%) of population growth in recent years.</p>
<p>Demand for immigration – to settle permanently, work in Australia, or study here for a few years – is high, and there are many opportunities for people to move to Australia. In the 2015-16 financial year about 190,000 visas were granted to migrants and 19,000 for humanitarian and refugee entry. Temporary migrants included 311,000 student visas, 215,000 working holidaymaker visas and 86,000 temporary work (skilled) 457 visas.</p>
<p>Over the last five years, ABS figures show that immigration has averaged about 480,000 per year and emigration about 280,000. This puts annual net overseas migration at around 200,000.</p>
<p>This is high in international terms. UN Population Division data for the 2010-15 periodreveals Australia had the 17th-highest rate of net overseas migration of any country.</p>
<p>But it is not just overseas migration driving Australia’s population growth. High natural increase (the number of births minus the number of deaths) also makes a substantial contribution. Natural increase has been responsible for a little under half (44%) of population growth in recent years (about 157,000 per year).</p>
<p>Australia has a relatively healthy fertility rate, which lately has averaged almost 1.9 babies per woman. We also enjoy one of the highest life expectancies in the world.</p>
<p>This combination of an extended history of net overseas migration gains, a long baby boom and a healthy fertility rate has resulted in Australia being less advanced in the population ageing transition than many other developed countries.</p>
<p>In particular, relatively large numbers of people are in the peak childbearing ages. This means that even if migration fell immediately to zero the population would still increase. Demographers call this age structure effect “population momentum”.</p>
<h2>Whether Australia’s population is growing too fast</h2>
<p>While Australia’s population growth rate is high in a global context, this does not necessarily mean its population is growing too fast. It all depends on your point of view.</p>
<p>It is important to stress that the overall population growth rate is just one aspect of Australia’s demography. A more comprehensive debate about the nation’s demographic trajectory should consider a broad range of issues, such as:</p>
<ul>
<li>
<p>population age structure (the numbers of people in different age groups);</p>
</li>
<li>
<p>the health and wellbeing of a rapidly growing population at the highest ages;</p>
</li>
<li>
<p>population distribution across the country;</p>
</li>
<li>
<p>economic growth and development;</p>
</li>
<li>
<p>the contributions of temporary workers and overseas students;</p>
</li>
<li>
<p>appropriate infrastructure for the needs of the population; and</p>
</li>
<li>
<p>environmental management and per-capita carbon emissions.</p>
</li>
</ul>
<p>Progress on issues such as healthy ageing, economic development,and environmental management depend on appropriate strategies to deal with these challenges. Total population numbers will often be relevant to the discussion, but they are only part of the equation.</p>
<p><em>Tom Wilson is a Principal Research Fellow at Charles Darwin University and author for The Conversation. He can be contacted <a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/tom-wilson-1717" target="_blank">here</a>.</em></p>
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How babies and migrants have contributed to Australia’s population growth: Tom Wilson

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<p>GUEST OBSERVER</p>
<p>A recent episode of ABC TV’s Ask the Doctor pointed to poor urban planning as a major culprit in worsening obesity rates and associated lifestyle diseases such as diabetes. The show highlighted suburbs without footpaths, fresh-food outlets or exercise opportunities.</p>
<p>Built environments are important contributors to our health and wealth. Urban planners strive to create the best environments, but many describe the results as “obesogenic” – that is, places where fast-food outlets abound and there are few opportunities to be sufficiently physically active.</p>
<p>Increasing access to health data, along with the powerful analytical tools needed to interpret these data, provides an opportunity to develop a real fix for this worsening situation.</p>
<p>How far planners have come</p>
<p>Urban planners have come a long way in supporting healthy and active living. Internationally, this goes back to the late 1940s, when the World Health Organisation (WHO) defined health as much more than the absence of disease.</p>
<p>The subsequent and ongoing development of the WHO Healthy Cities movement, the declaration of the Ottawa Charter, and the publication of the social determinants of health and the related settlement map, further reinforced the importance of urban planning and design in creating places that support health and wellbeing.</p>
<p>Recently, the UN Sustainable Development Goals cemented this focus on healthy built environments.</p>
<p>In Australia, this global recognition has brought built environment and health professionals into a closer working relationship. For example:</p>
<p>The Victorian government requires local councils to prepare municipal health plans.</p>
<p>The New South Wales government policy acknowledges the built environment as a key determinant of health.</p>
<p>In Western Australia, the longitudinal RESIDE project traces the health impacts on residents of the Liveable Neighbourhoods Community Design Guidelines.</p>
<p>In Queensland, a Healthy Futures Commission has been legislated to tackle chronic disease by adopting healthy lifestyles.</p>
<p>The National Heart Foundation has made an impressive set of contributions to healthy built environments.</p>
<p>The Planning Institute of Australia has spearheaded interdisciplinary collaborations. Most recently, it issued a statement supporting healthy built environments.</p>
<p>How health data can help</p>
<p>Despite this progress, some health indicators continue to deteriorate. The numbers of children either overweight or obese is a global public heath epidemic. In Australia, around 25% of children are overweight or obese.</p>
<p>This trend is worrying, as obesity in childhood and adulthood is strongly linked.</p>
<p>Being overweight or obese is a significant risk factor for developing type 2 diabetes. Globally, more than 420 million people have type 2 diabetes, and these numbers have quadrupled since 1980. In Western Sydney alone, 60% of adults are overweight or obese.</p>
<p>But increasing access to health data and more readily available analytical tools offer new opportunities to tackle ever-growing rates of obesity.</p>
<p>The Heart Foundation has published comprehensive design guidelines and a website linking research evidence to good practice.</p>
<p>In NSW, the Healthy Urban Development Checklist assists health professionals to comment on the extent to which urban planning proposals will support health. In Victoria, Community Indicators link practitioners with communities to create healthy places.</p>
<p>Other tools include Healthy Built Environment Indicators and the NSW Integrated Planning and Reporting Framework to get physical activity and healthy eating into local council community strategic plans.</p>
<p>Beyond these approaches, geographical information systems (GIS) and other analytical tools can help tackle obesity. South Australia’s Department for Health and Ageing used GIS to plot gaps in built environment facilities and resources that impact childhood obesity. One study established a link between obesity and access to fast-food outlets.</p>
<p>Another initiative provided insights into the spatial patterning of health issues by developing a diabetes map.</p>
<p>Using these tools is a step in the right direction. But challenges remain, particularly in terms of access to health data. The release of datasets such as the National Health Services Directory and the National Deaths and Mortality database is encouraging.</p>
<p>Greater ease of use improves implementation</p>
<p>Increasing user-friendliness of analytical tools, such as GIS and online portals like the AURIN workbench, and walkability planning support systems offer more powerful means of understanding the relationship between health and the built environment.</p>
<p>However, to seize these opportunities, we need enhanced data analysis, interpretation and presentation skills for planners and policymakers.</p>
<p>It takes skill to communicate the stories in the data and clearly identify the implications and required policy responses. Practical and policy-relevant research is critical.</p>
<p>Enshrining the need for planning healthy built environments in legislation will help planners in their fundamental role of promoting healthy lifestyles. Planners can be taught the theory. But putting it into practice requires a strong policy framework to support principles, maintain standards and withstand cost-cutting pressures.</p>
<p>With the increasing democratisation of health data and better access to analytical tools such as Australian National Data Services, AURIN and others, spatial thinking, data-driven approaches and collaborative action can fast-track plans for new and renewed environments that enable healthy living.</p>
<p><span class="fn author-name"><a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/alison-taylor-388947" target="_blank">Alison Taylor</a> is l</span>ecturer, Faculty of Built Environment, UNSW.</p>
<p><span class="fn author-name"><a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/christopher-pettit-388997" target="_blank">Christopher Pettit</a> is p</span>rofessor of Urban Science, UNSW.</p>
<p><span class="fn author-name"><a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/ori-gudes-114294" target="_blank">Ori Gudes</a> is r</span>esearch fellow, Cities Futures Research Centre, UNSW.</p>
<p><span class="fn author-name"><a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/susan-thompson-116543" target="_blank">Susan Thompson</a> is p</span>rofessor of Planning and Head, City Wellbeing Program, City Futures Research Centre, UNSW.</p>
<p>All are authors for <a href="https://theconversation.com/au" target="_blank">The Conversation</a>.</p>
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With better data access, urban planners could help ease our weight problems

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<p>GUEST OBSERVER</p>
<p><span>Considering all the aspects of life in Australia that are affected by population, it's remarkable that the nation doesn't have a national policy on it.</span></p>
<p>Population growth has profound impacts on Australian life, and sorting myths from facts can be difficult. This is the first article in our series, Is Australia Full?, which aims to help inform a wide-ranging and often emotive debate.</p>
<p>Australia lacks an overarching population policy or strategy. Over the years, multiple inquiries have recommended such a policy. Population policies the world over typically focus on births and migration.</p>
<p>As part of post-war reconstruction, Australia adopted a 2% population growth target. Mass immigration was a defining feature, and couples were called on to populate or perish. Immigration was successful, but women were big losers in the push for births.</p>
<p>The 1975 National Population Inquiry proved a significant moment in Australian demography. The inquiry found that Australia should not seek to influence population, but should anticipate and respond.</p>
<p>Population policy was revisited in the 1990s with the National Population Council. Its 1994 report found no optimal population size for Australia, but again called for a responsive population policy of preparedness.</p>
<p>Interest in sustainable population policy was renewed in 2010 following Kevin Rudd’s infamous endorsement of a “big Australia”. We even had a minister for population, Tony Burke, for about six months until the portfolio was expanded. Population was subsequently dropped from any ministerial title.</p>
<p>After an exhaustive inquiry, A Sustainable Population Strategy for Australia was released in 2011. This stopped short of recommending a population policy but removed any option of population limits. Change felt possible in shifting the narrative to a proactive endeavour concerning population matters, particularly evident in the National Urban Policy.</p>
<p>Despite such inquiries and recommendations to adopt a population policy, governments have so far resisted. Unsuccessful attempts at population policy can be understood in terms of difficulties in gaining political support and concerns about coercion.</p>
<p>But national population policy need not be coercive – unlike, for example, in India or China. Instead, it can be a series of targets and connected policy domains with oversight.</p>
<p>Presently, the policy landscape is disjointed. Parenting leave, family and childcare payments, and immigration are each somewhat responsive to population changes, but not prepared. Family payments have been shown not to increase birth rates.</p>
<h2>Births, deaths, migration – and taxes</h2>
<p>The intergenerational reports have been our only glimpse of responsiveness and preparedness. But these have increasingly been criticised for their political tone. Who could forget the Challenge of Change campaign?</p>
<p>What we know is that Australia’s population continues to age, so among the nation’s pressing issues is fewer taxpayers. The total age-related dependency ratio, of people aged over and under working age relative to the working-aged population, was 52 per 100 people in 2016.</p>
<p>While the child-dependency rate (0-14 year olds) is higher than the aged-dependency rate (people 65 and over), the rate of people aged less than 15 has steadily declined as the population aged 65 and over has driven increases in the so-called dependency burden.</p>
<p><a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/07/05/fedwrefedde.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></p>
<p><img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2017/07/05/fedwrefedde.jpg" width="700" height="455"></p>
<p>The relative increase in people older than working age is increasing pressure on the economy and government budgets. While government spending on young people is substantial, the highest per person spending is among people aged 65 and over.</p>
<p>A robust workforce contributing income tax and services is essential to ensure current lifestyles are afforded to the young while also sustaining the public spending necessary for people over 65 years who have over their lives contributed to the nation.</p>
<p>With birth rates low and deaths increasing, natural increase is no longer driving Australia’s population. Immigration is increasingly relied on to offset the ageing of the workforce. Over half (54%) of Australia’s population growth is from net overseas migration.</p>
<p><a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/07/05/xdgfchgjhjn.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></p>
<p><img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2017/07/05/xdgfchgjhjn.jpg" width="700" height="473"></p>
<h2>Preparing for an older population</h2>
<p>In a 2013 United Nations survey, the Australian government reported concerns about population ageing, a desire to increase the “too low” birth rate, but satisfaction with the level of net overseas migration. Interestingly, a preference for migration away from cities was also cited.</p>
<p>From current policy and discourse, you would not know these views were held. Most Australians also report a preference for the level of immigration to remain the same or be increased, contrary to sentiments we often hear.</p>
<p>Australia has time to prepare for, and make opportunities of, the challenges of an ageing population. Some countries are facing tough decisions now and it is interesting to watch the politics play out. What Japan, China and Germany show is that we need to take action now.</p>
<p>Insightful guides are in place already. South Australia has had a population strategy since 2004. Tasmania recently adopted one.</p>
<p>These state strategies focus on growth to curb economic downturn. What is important in these two cases is that both emphasise policy portfolio linkages, as well as evidence and reporting against targets without coercive measures.</p>
<h2>What is a sensible approach to population policy?</h2>
<p>A renewed, earnest and transparent population conversation is needed. With ever more reliance on immigration, we must go beyond the unhelpful pro-immigration versus pro-nationalism debate to consider our population prospects.</p>
<p>The key question is: how can Australia make opportunities of its demographic challenges?</p>
<p>Australia has the potential to be a global leader in innovative markets and research and development. An ageing population provides an interesting market opening; we just need to be smart about it. Without careful consideration, Australia will be merely a bystander in the increasingly competitive global market.</p>
<p>Policy connectedness should exist between portfolios. These include: health; housing; education, skills and training; employment; infrastructure; regional development; water and energy; environment; and migrant settlement.</p>
<p>We can invest more effectively in young people – our future workforce and economic lifeblood – if we consider a life-course approach to population dynamics. Family friendly, gender-equal workplaces will go a long way to ease the pressures of having children. Integral to this is affordable and accessible child care.</p>
<p>And establishing a ministerial portfolio overseeing population strategy would be a good start.</p>
<p><em>Liz Allen is a Demographer, ANU Centre for Social Research and Methods, Australian National University and author for The Conversation. she can be contacted <a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/liz-allen-10193" target="_blank">here</a>.</em></p>
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Australia doesn’t have a population policy – why? Liz Allen

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<div>Population growth in Australia has slowed from its recent peak of a shade above 405,000 per annum in September 2013 back to around 354,600 per annum on the latest figures.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>This headline number will have some way to fall yet, with the December 2014 figures yet to be reported.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>However, a rebound is in the post in time.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>In the summer month of January 2015, traditionally a strong month for long term arrivals, the <a href="https://www.abs.gov.au/ausstats/abs@.nsf/mf/3401.0/" target="_blank"><em>Australian Bureau of Statistics</em> figures</a> recorded a bounce from 52,160 to 76,310, although the January result is still 9 per cent lower than one year ago.</div>
<div> </div>
<div><img src="/images/2015/06/09/wargent1.jpg" alt="" width="751" height="366"></div>
<div> </div>
<div> </div>
<div>
<div>On the departures side, however, long term and permanent departures also declined in January from 46,740 to 42,100, which notably is a below<strong> </strong>figure than the prior year comparative.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>On a rolling annual basis net long term migration of 318,560 sits some 22 per cent below the most recent peak of January 2013.</div>
<div> </div>
<div><img src="/images/2015/06/09/wargent2.jpg" alt="" width="673" height="324"></div>
<div> </div>
<div>
<div>When it comes to the long term and permanent departures data, stated intentions when ticking boxes on forms are one thing, but today's reality is quite another.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Boomerang departures are one of the reasons that our capital cities appear so crowded, despite the apparently slowing population growth data.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>On the one hand we now have record high short term arrivals at close to 7 million per annum.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>And meanwhile most of those who claim to be migrating overseas permanently have "pulled a boomerang" within a year of leaving.</div>
<br><div>
<a href="https://www.abs.gov.au/ausstats/abs@.nsf/Latestproducts/3401.0Main%20Features2Jan%202015?opendocument&amp;tabname=Summary&amp;prodno=3401.0&amp;issue=Jan%202015&amp;num=&amp;view=" target="_blank">Analysis</a> of prior years' data from the <em>Australian Bureau of Statistics</em> reveals that while ostensibly more than 380,000 Australians left the country on a long term or "permanent" basis over the past 12 months, more than 80 per cent of them are likely return home within just a year!</div>
<br><div><span><span><em>"Analysis shows that the majority of those with an intention of permanently departing, return to Australia within the following year. </em></span></span></div>
<div><span><span><em> </em></span></span></div>
<div><span><span><em>For example, in the calendar year 2011, out of the 84,240 Australian residents who stated they were departing permanently, only 15,890 spent 12 months or more overseas."</em></span></span></div>
<div> </div>
<div>So much for the "long term-ness" of the long term departures, if you'll kindly pardon my dreadful English.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Perhaps those pastures further afield aren't as greener-er as what people think they are, and that's why they done that.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>OK I'm getting rather grammatically bogged down here, so let's move on to look at...</div>
<div> </div>
<div><strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">Record high visitors (the delayed Oprah effect)</span></strong></div>
<div> </div>
<div>Shifting seamlessly along to short term arrivals we can see that visitors to Australia have sprinted to their highest level on record at more than 6.9 million.</div>
<div> </div>
<div><img src="/images/2015/06/09/wargent3.jpg" alt="" width="829" height="390"></div>
<div> </div>
<div>
<div>The idea that Kiwis are flocking home to rediscover the beauty of their homeland is an appealing narrative, but also one that has been overplayed.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>In fact, record numbers of New Zealanders arrived in Australia in the past year on a "short term" basis at close to 1.25 million.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>There has also been a notable surge in the number of American visitors to Australia to a record 555,300 on a rolling annual basis.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Oprah Winfrey said it'd happen, and it seems she was right.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Although the detailed figures do show a spike relating to her December 2010 visit - from memory she brought along a few hundred whooping guests, and even greater numbers of security guards and filming crew - it is only in the past 12 months that American visitor numbers have really picked up strongly.<br><br>Naturally the decline of the Aussie dollar towards the mid 70 cent range against the greenback is a big driver here. </div>
<div> </div>
<div><img src="/images/2015/06/09/wargent4.jpg" alt="" width="893" height="434"></div>
<div> </div>
<div><span>And the below mega-trend, I've documented here often previously.</span></div>
<div><span> </span></div>
<div><span><img src="/images/2015/06/09/Screen%20Shot%202015-06-09%20at%209.45.00%20AM.png" alt="" width="744" height="341"></span></div>
</div>
<div> </div>
<div>
<span>Expect more of the same based upon what I've seen around the traps in 2015.</span><br><br><strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">Asian settlers </span></strong><br><br><div>In terms of settlers in Australia the trend has clearly been away from Brits and Kiwis since the financial crisis and towards Chinese and Indians.<br><br>
</div>
<div>However, there was a reasonable rebound in the number of New Zealander settlers in January so this particular downtrend may have run its course for now, although Kiwi settler numbers are still clearly down by 10 per cent or so from a year ago.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Poms clearly are evidently still opting to stay at home, though.</div>
<div> </div>
<div><img src="/images/2015/06/09/Screen%20Shot%202015-06-09%20at%209.46.16%20AM.png" alt="" width="817" height="411"></div>
<div> </div>
<div><span>The last 12 months has seen some 71,310 settlers from Asia, another mega-trend that shows no real sign of abating.</span></div>
<div><span> </span></div>
<div><span><img src="/images/2015/06/09/Screen%20Shot%202015-06-09%20at%209.47.21%20AM.png" alt="" width="828" height="418"></span></div>
<div> </div>
<div> </div>
<div>
<div id="post-body-3022590133789834441" class="post-body entry-content">
<div><strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">The wrap</span></strong></div>
<div> </div>
<div>The rolling long term net migration figures imply that Australian population growth will sink back towards the low 300,000s range over the near term.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>However, a complex range of factors will combine to drive a rebound in due course. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>Not least of these trends is that most who claim to be slinging their hooks for good don't even make it past year one before "pulling a boomerang".</div>
<div> </div>
</div>
<div class="post-footer">
<em><span>PETE WARGENT</span> is the co-founder of <a href="https://allenwargent.com/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">AllenWargent</a> property buyers (London, Sydney) and a best-selling author and <a href="https://petewargent.blogspot.com/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">blogger</a>.</em><br><p><em>His book '<a href="https://www.bigskypublishing.com.au/Books/General-Interest/Four-Green-Houses--and-a-Red-Hotel/1015/productview.aspx" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">Four Green Houses and a Red Hotel</a>' is out now.</em></p>
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pwargent-M4siyDbqQY

Boomerang departures drive population growth rebound: Pete Wargent

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<h3 class="post-title entry-title"> </h3>
<div id="post-body-5183975004734142219" class="post-body entry-content">
<div>
<span style="line-height: 1.3em;">After a bit of pause in the ABS </span><a href="https://www.abs.gov.au/AUSSTATS/abs@.nsf/Lookup/3401.0Main+Features1Apr%202015?OpenDocument" target="_blank" style="line-height: 1.3em;">Overseas Arrivals and Departures</a><span style="line-height: 1.3em;"> survey we have had no fewer than </span><strong style="line-height: 1.3em;"><span style="text-decoration: underline;">seven</span></strong><span style="line-height: 1.3em;"> such releases since May...and there's yet another in the post in the next couple of days too!</span>
</div>
<div> </div>
<div>The slowdown in Australia's population growth to +330,000 in 2014 was straightforward enough to predict for those who were paying attention - with Sydney and Melbourne leading the population growth charts - and regular readers will be well across the drivers of the downtrend.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>While most commentary is finally just about latching on to last year's story, I'm now getting more interested in trying to anticipate the eventual rebound - the causes thereof, and the likely timing.<br><br>Let's have a look at a four trends to watch, and particularly the role of exchange rates thereon.</div>
<br><strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">1 - Net long term migration</span></strong><br><br><div>Rolling annual net long term migration slowed considerably from around 411,000 in January 2013 to just above 300,000 by April 2015.</div>
<div> </div>
<div><a href="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-CsKHLxNp92E/VZhovUp0ezI/AAAAAAAAWog/kgkTP1sMsjg/s1600/Arr1.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></div>
<br><div class="separator"><a href="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-CsKHLxNp92E/VZhovUp0ezI/AAAAAAAAWog/kgkTP1sMsjg/s1600/Arr1.jpg"><img src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-CsKHLxNp92E/VZhovUp0ezI/AAAAAAAAWog/kgkTP1sMsjg/s640/Arr1.jpg" width="640" height="280"></a></div>
<br><div><span>The downtrend is still in place but appears to be slowing. </span></div>
<div><span> </span></div>
<div><span>In any case, following some analysis of<span> previous years' data the ABS itself <a href="https://petewargent.blogspot.com.au/2015/06/boomerang-departures-to-drive" target="_blank">cast doubts</a> on the relevance of the permanent departures statistics.</span></span></div>
<span><span><br></span></span><span><span>The ABS research implied that while ostensibly more than 380,000 Australians left the country on a </span></span><span><span>long term or "permanent" basis over the past 12 months, a high proportion of them are likely return home within just a year. </span></span><span>Observed the ABS:</span><br><div><span> </span></div>
<div>
<span><em>"Analysis shows that the majority of those with an intention of permanently departing, return to Australia within the following year. </em></span><em><span><span>For example, in the calendar year 2011, out of the 84,240 Australian residents who stated they were departing permanently, only 15,890 spent 12 months or more overseas</span><span>."</span></span></em>
</div>
<br><div>Whether or not this proves to be true in the future is less clear, but it does serve as a timely reminder that all is often not as it seems when it comes to demographic trends.</div>
<br><div><strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">2 - Record short term arrivals</span></strong></div>
<div> </div>
<div>As the Aussie dollar has declined from around 110 US cents close to just 75 cents, the domestic economy is set to benefit from record high short term arrivals, now tracking at well over 7 million in the year to April 2015.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>The chart below suggests that we might expect trends in short term arrivals and departures to dovetail with respect to changes in the strength or otherwise of our currency.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>With the awesome strength of the Aussie dollar through the mining investment boom it was no surprise to see short term departures exploding higher.<br><br>
</div>
<div>I even took full advantage of this myself to undertake a rather extravagant world cruise in 2011, something which seems somewhat less appealing now, at least from a cost perspective!</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Now that the dollar has depreciated it is all but inevitable that this rampant trend towards overseas travel will reverse and comparatively fewer Australians will choose to travel and holiday overseas.</div>
<div> </div>
<div><a href="https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-aeVfFBTDcNc/VZhoxu3OR4I/AAAAAAAAWo0/POJh6u2LYwI/s1600/arr4.jpg">Click to enlarge</a></div>
<br><a href="https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-aeVfFBTDcNc/VZhoxu3OR4I/AAAAAAAAWo0/POJh6u2LYwI/s1600/arr4.jpg"><img src="https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-aeVfFBTDcNc/VZhoxu3OR4I/AAAAAAAAWo0/POJh6u2LYwI/s640/arr4.jpg" width="640" height="290"></a><br><br>In fact, although the above chart doesn't yet appear to suggest so, this has already begun to happen, which is a net positive for the domestic economy.<br><br><div>The below chart records the ratio of short term departures to short term arrivals by month, and reveals that the ratio has steadily fallen to sit at its lowest level since the first quarter of calendar year 2011.</div>
<div> </div>
<div><a href="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-d6rsK8_HQD0/VZhow5WJAMI/AAAAAAAAWoo/hGaZ0NeT8ys/s1600/Arr8.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></div>
<br><a href="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-d6rsK8_HQD0/VZhow5WJAMI/AAAAAAAAWoo/hGaZ0NeT8ys/s1600/Arr8.jpg"><img src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-d6rsK8_HQD0/VZhow5WJAMI/AAAAAAAAWoo/hGaZ0NeT8ys/s640/Arr8.jpg" width="640" height="274"></a><br><br>The Aussie dollar likely has further to fall, and in turn so too does this ratio.<br><br><span style="text-decoration: underline;"><strong>3 - Compositional shift of arrivals</strong></span><br><br>When people observe housing market trends and opine that the role of Chinese investment might be a passing fad, they might want to think again.<br><div> </div>
<div>Credit Suisse projects that Chinese investors will drop some $60 billion into Australia's housing markets over the five years to 2020, more than double the estimated $28 million in the preceding five years. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>Meanwhile the number of Chinese USD millionaires is expected to rise at 14% per annum (Chinese stock market corrections notwithstanding!) thereby doubling to 2.6 million by the end of the decade.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>While there must be an element of guesswork and extrapolation involved here, I've seen nothing in the housing market activity which causes me to cast doubt on the estimates.</div>
<br><div>Comfortably the most significant change in short term visitors to Australia has been the explosion in Chinese short term arrivals since the turn of the century.</div>
<br><div>In February 2015, the month which incorporated Chinese New Year, an astonishing 198,700 visitors came to Australia from China, Hong Kong and Taiwan combined.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>
<a href="https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-FriL70hzVFg/VZjW4f53AUI/AAAAAAAAWp8/RZosv0cwvJw/s1600/Chindia.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a><br><br><div class="separator"><a href="https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-FriL70hzVFg/VZjW4f53AUI/AAAAAAAAWp8/RZosv0cwvJw/s1600/Chindia.jpg"><img src="https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-FriL70hzVFg/VZjW4f53AUI/AAAAAAAAWp8/RZosv0cwvJw/s640/Chindia.jpg" width="640" height="276"></a></div>
</div>
<span>Interestingly the "original" data for the three months to April also revealed unprecedented numbers of Indian short term arrivals at 66,500, while the Americans are also enjoying the shifts in the exchange rate with rolling annual number of short term visitors rising to a record 563,800.</span><br><div class="separator"> </div>
<br><div>We can expect that eventually some of these trends will flow through to Australia's permanent settler figures.</div>
<br><div>While the number of Brits settling is threatening to become immaterial - at just 590 settlers in April, less than a quarter of the levels seen in 2008 - and permanent New Zealander immigrants are trending sharply down, Indian and Chinese settlers are rapidly tracking at or close to record levels.<br><br>
</div>
<div><a href="https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-f8touQwzFSo/VZhowb-0JsI/AAAAAAAAWos/5pVKyqyQIbY/s1600/Arr6.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></div>
<div> </div>
<a href="https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-f8touQwzFSo/VZhowb-0JsI/AAAAAAAAWos/5pVKyqyQIbY/s1600/Arr6.jpg"><img src="https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-f8touQwzFSo/VZhowb-0JsI/AAAAAAAAWos/5pVKyqyQIbY/s640/Arr6.jpg" width="640" height="278"></a><br><div> </div>
<div>Indeed, there were 73,370 settlers hailing from Asia in the year to April 2015 as compared to fewer than 15,000 from Europe.</div>
<br>It's a huge shift in composition that is underway.<br><div class="separator"> </div>
<strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">4 - Record education enrolments in Q1 2015</span></strong><br><br><div>One other unfolding trend to watch which is also tied to the depreciation of the currency is the record number of foreign student enrolments seen in the first quarter of 2015.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>The ABS series shows that the rolling annual number of short term arrivals into Australia in the year to April for education has blasted to its highest ever level at 421,400.</div>
<div> </div>
<div><a href="https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-rfQpqET2No8/VZhovXWXDPI/AAAAAAAAWoc/7GjRMo7Gbjo/s1600/Arr5.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></div>
<br><div class="separator"><a href="https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-rfQpqET2No8/VZhovXWXDPI/AAAAAAAAWoc/7GjRMo7Gbjo/s1600/Arr5.jpg"><img src="https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-rfQpqET2No8/VZhovXWXDPI/AAAAAAAAWoc/7GjRMo7Gbjo/s640/Arr5.jpg" width="640" height="280"></a></div>
<br><div>This is another demographic trend which is heavily skewed towards Asian participants, and Chinese students in particular, and one we can expect to keep on growing.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>
<span><em>PETE WARGENT is the co-founder of <a href="https://allenwargent.com/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">AllenWargent</a> property buyers (London, Sydney) and a best-selling author and <a href="https://petewargent.blogspot.com/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">blogger</a>.</em><br></span>
<p><em>His latest book is <a href="https://www.bigskypublishing.com.au/Books/General-Interest/Four-Green-Houses--and-a-Red-Hotel/1015/productview.aspx" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">Four Green Houses and a Red Hotel</a>.</em></p>
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