Different magnitudes of market value changes: Cameron Kusher
Housing markets show different performances geographically as well as across product types and pricing points.
Across the capital cities, a useful measure of capital gain across broad price points is our stratified hedonic index.
The CoreLogic RP Data Stratified Hedonic Index looks at the movement in home values across three broad value based segments of the housing market. The three segments are divided across quartiles and provide an insight about capital gains across the most affordable 25% of capital city suburbs, the middle 50% of capital city suburbs and the most expensive 25% of capital city suburbs.
Over the 12 months to October 2015, dwelling values across the combined capital cities increased by 8.2% across the most affordable suburbs, 9.6% across the middle priced suburbs and 11.4% over the most expensive suburbs. The trends are somewhat different over the past three months with the most affordable suburbs recording the strongest value rises.
Over the period, the most affordable suburbs have seen values increased by 1.5% compared to 1.2% growth across the middle market and a 1.3% increase in values across the most expensive suburbs. Over the current growth phase, which broadly commenced in June of 2012, combined capital city home values have increased by 26.5% across the most affordable quarter of capital city suburbs, by 32.4% across the ‘middle’ of the market and by 33.7% across the most expensive quarter of suburbs.
Looking at the data across the five largest capital cities shows some quite different results. Across the most affordable capital city suburbs, home value changes over the past year have been recorded at +14.3% in Sydney, +8.8% in Melbourne, +3.1% in Brisbane, +3.4% in Adelaide and -1.4% in Perth.
Looking at the middle 50% of suburbs the value changes over the past year have been recorded at: +14.8% in Sydney, +11.2% in Melbourne, +4.6% in Brisbane, +2.6% in Adelaide and -2.9% in Perth. Finally the most expensive quarter of the market recorded value changes over the past year of +17.1% in Sydney, +14.6% in Melbourne, +3.5% in Brisbane, +1.5% in Adelaide and -4.3% in Perth.
Based on these results you can see that it has been the most expensive suburbs recording the greatest value rises in Sydney and Melbourne with the most affordable suburbs recording the slowest rate of growth. In Brisbane the middle market is seeing the greatest rise in values while the most affordable suburbs are seeing the slowest rate of growth. In Adelaide and Perth the best performed segment is the most affordable end of the market with the most expensive suburbs the weakest. Note that in Perth all three segments analysed have recorded value falls over the past year.
Focussing on quarterly data, the most affordable suburbs have been the strongest for growth in Melbourne, Adelaide in Perth. The middle market has recorded the strongest value growth over the quarter in Brisbane while in Sydney the most expensive suburbs have recorded the highest rate of value growth.
The differing performance of the segments provides a good insight into the current market dynamics as to where housing demand is strongest. In Sydney and Melbourne it is typically higher priced stock, in Brisbane it is the middle market and in Adelaide and Perth demand is largely for more affordable housing stock.
As the rate of growth slows in Sydney and Melbourne we are likely to see the profile of where demand is strongest also change in those cities. Furthermore, if Sydney and Melbourne buyers look to purchase in other cities they may be able to afford more expensive stock than the local buyers in Brisbane, Adelaide and Perth. As a result we may see higher levels of value growth across the higher priced market segments.
Cameron Kusher is research analyst for CoreLogic RP Data. You can contact him here.
