Home Values

The Brisbane unit market is showing consistent growth,&nbsp;according to CoreLogic&#39;s Monthly Hedonic Home Value Index.

Values jumped 1.4%, following the 1.6% gains in March and 1.5%&nbsp;over February. Values are now 6% up over 2022 already, well on their way to matching the 14.4% growth over 2021.

The quarterly performance, up 4.6%, is the highest in the country for the unit market.

The median apartment value in Brisbane is now $488,393. At the start of 2021, it was just over $390,000.

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Following the RBA&#39;s first interest rate rise in nearly 12 years at the May meeting,&nbsp;the Real Estate Institute of Queensland (REIQ) said the&nbsp;resilient Queensland market the higher rate forecasts.

REIQ CEO Antonia Mercorella said given the level of inflation, this may not be the last interest rate rise we see, but it was important to recognise that many market conditions and external factors remain favourable in Queensland.

&ldquo;We know that consumer confidence is key, and this move by the RBA will certainly make people stop and think more carefully about how much they are prepared to borrow, because it&rsquo;s a timely reminder that interest rates can and do go up,&rdquo; she said.

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&ldquo;While on the face of it, it&rsquo;s not an insignificant rise, in the grand scheme of things interest rates have been at historic lows for some time and are still very low.

&ldquo;This is also where our relative affordability is an advantage, as our average home loan rate is much lower than in capital cities like Sydney and Melbourne, and so the impact will be felt less here.

&ldquo;We remain confident in the resilience of the Queensland market because the need and demand for housing is irrespective, and an interest rate rise simply causes people to rethink what they are prepared to spend and how big of a loan they are prepared to enter into.&quot;

Total advertised inventory of both houses and apartments&nbsp;is more than 20 per cent below levels from a year ago in Brisbane, and around 40 per cent lower than the previous five-year average.

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The median apartment value in Brisbane is now $488,393. At the start of 2021, it was just over $390,000

Joel Robinson

Brisbane apartment market insights: What happened over April

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Over the 10 years to January 2016, home values across the combined capital cities have increased by a total 72.0% which is well short of values doubling over the decade. 
If we look at the split between houses and units, house values are 73.1% higher compared to a 64.3% increase in unit values.
Although combined capital city home values haven’t doubled over the past decade, the previous decade was quite a different story. Between January 1996 and January 2006 combined capital city home values increased by 151.7% with house values up 159.6% and unit values 110.1% higher. Based on this data, the most recent decade of capital city home value growth has been half that of the previous decade. 
<a href="/images/2016/02/11/Screen%20Shot%202016-02-11%20at%201.14.30%20PM.png" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="/images/2016/02/11/Screen%20Shot%202016-02-11%20at%201.14.30%20PM.png" alt="">
At a combined capital city level, the index is weighted so it is therefore heavily influenced by the performance of the larger capital cities. Taking a look at value growth over the past decade across individual capital cities shows a diversity in results.
Melbourne is the only capital city housing market where home values doubled over the past decade. In fact, many cities are a long way from having doubled with values in Brisbane, Adelaide, Perth, Hobart and Canberra having all increased by less than 50% over the past decade. Home values in Sydney and Darwin have each recorded increases of more than 75% over the past decade however, they too fell well short of seeing values double over the decade.
Over the previous decade (10 years to January 2006) home values more than doubled across each capital city (note that Hobart values are for houses only and data is not available for Darwin). 
In fact, value growth over the previous decade was more than three times greater than over the most recent decade in Brisbane, Adelaide, Perth, Hobart and Canberra while nationally it was more than double the rate of value growth over the past 10 years. Even Sydney and Melbourne recorded much stronger home value growth over the previous decade compared to the past decade. 
Looking at value growth over the five years to January 2016, it looks unlikely that by the time January 2021 rolls around that home values would have doubled over the decade in any of the capital cities. Over the past five years, Sydney and Melbourne are the only capital cities in which home values have increased by more than 10% with values lower in Hobart and Darwin.
<a href="/images/2016/02/11/Screen%20Shot%202016-02-11%20at%201.15.41%20PM.png">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="/images/2016/02/11/Screen%20Shot%202016-02-11%20at%201.15.41%20PM.png" alt="">
While there was a time when home values doubled over a 10 year period the data suggests that the days of such rapid value rises are behind us. It’s important to remember that in recent times we have had record low mortgage rates yet that has failed to spark any substantial home value growth outside of Sydney and Melbourne. 
With little wage growth and ongoing economic uncertainty it is clear that in most areas of the country there are limits to what people can pay for housing. Subsequently there has been little impetus for any significant value growth outside of the two largest capital cities. Even in Sydney and Melbourne value growth has been substantially lower over the past decade than over the previous decade.
Cameron Kusher is research analyst for CoreLogic RP Data. You can contact him <a href="https://blog.corelogic.com.au/about/" target="_blank">here</a>.
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Property values – do they double every decade? Cameron Kusher

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Despite the recent slowdown, housing finance data highlights that investor activity in the housing market is starting to rise again and when you look at total returns from housing it’s no surprise.
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The CoreLogic RP Data Accumulation Index which has been published since June 2009 highlights the total returns from residential property.  The total returns include both the increase in values as well as gross rental returns.  
The first chart shows the annual change in the total returns (accumulation) index over time. While combined capital city home values recorded longer and deeper falls during 2011-12, total returns were negative for only a short period of time thanks to the uplift from rental yields. More recently you can see that the annual change in total returns across the combined capital cities has remained quite strong.
<h3>Combined capital city annual changes in total returns for houses and units</h3>
<a href="/images/2016/06/09/2016-06-06--img1.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="/images/2016/06/09/2016-06-06--img1.jpg" alt="">
 Over the 12 months to May 2016, combined capital city home values have increased by 10.0 percent while total returns have been recorded at a higher 13.9 percent. Looking at the individual capital cities, all cities except for Perth have recorded positive total returns over the past year. Sydney and Melbourne which have been the most active investment markets have seen the highest total returns at 16.9 percent and 17.5 percent respectively over the past twelve months. It should be noted that gross rental returns in both of these cities are now at record lows highlighting that the majority of these returns have come via an increase in home values.
<h3>Annual change in capital city total returns, 12 months to May 2016</h3>
<a href="/images/2016/06/09/2016-06-06--img2.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="/images/2016/06/09/2016-06-06--img2.jpg" alt="">
The third chart highlights the total returns over the past five years across all capital cities. Again, Sydney in particular, has seen far superior total returns compared to all other capital cities. 
Melbourne has also experienced relatively strong total returns over the past five years. 
Again this highlights why these two cities in particular have remained so popular with investors. In all other capital cities returns from residential property have been positive.  In many of these cities the total returns have been driven more so by the rental returns rather than the capital growth which has been the key driver in Sydney and Melbourne.
<h3>5 year total change in total returns, to May 2016</h3>
<a href="/images/2016/06/09/2016-06-06--img3.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="/images/2016/06/09/2016-06-06--img3.jpg" alt="">
Despite the recent rebound in value growth, the mature capital growth cycle and record low rental returns in Sydney and Melbourne, total returns are unlikely to be as strong in these cities over the coming years. A more balanced investment approach which focusses on moderate capital growth and relatively strong rental returns is likely to be a superior housing investment profile over the coming years. 
This data also highlights why housing investment has been so popular. In a low interest rate and subsequently low return environment housing has, over recent years, offered attractive returns. Whether this continues to be the case remains to be seen.
Cameron Kusher is research analyst for CoreLogic RP Data. You can contact him <a href="https://blog.corelogic.com.au/about/">here</a>.
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Total property returns show why housing investment remains so popular: CoreLogic

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On CoreLogic-RP Data's Index, prices in Melbourne and Sydney have accelerated over the past quarter to an astonishing pace, though this index probably lags. Prices are reported as up for the year, quarter...and even the day...for all capital cities in the index.
<a href="/images/2015/08/12/RPD%20Sea%20of%20GReen.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="/images/2015/08/12/RPD%20Sea%20of%20GReen.jpg" alt="">
 
PETE WARGENT is the co-founder of <a href="https://allenwargent.com/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">AllenWargent</a> property buyers (London, Sydney) and a best-selling author and <a href="https://petewargent.blogspot.com/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">blogger</a>. 
His latest book is <a href="https://www.bigskypublishing.com.au/Books/General-Interest/Four-Green-Houses--and-a-Red-Hotel/1015/productview.aspx" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">Four Green Houses and a Red Hotel</a>.
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A new high for Australian home values: Pete Wargent

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The increase in the value of Sydney homes over recent years has been significant and Sydney home owners now have a substantial amount of equity, it will be interesting to see what they do with it.
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The latest CoreLogic RP Data Home Value Index results were released earlier this week.  Apart from an update how house and unit values have shifted in November, the release includes the latest update on median selling prices for houses and units across the capital cities.  From this data it is becoming increasingly evident that housing costs in Sydney have well and truly separated from the rest of the country.
The CoreLogic RP Data Home Value Index results highlight just how much stronger value growth has been in Sydney, and to a lesser degree Melbourne, relative to all other capital cities.  The first chart highlights that since the current growth phase commenced in June 2012, value growth has been significantly greater in Sydney than in most other cities.  This has occurred despite the fact that Sydney was already the most expensive capital city.
<a href="/images/2015/12/7/Screen%20Shot%202015-12-07%20at%202.16.35%20PM.png" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="/images/2015/12/7/Screen%20Shot%202015-12-07%20at%202.16.35%20PM.png" alt="" width="716" height="358">
The second chart compares median house and unit prices across each of the capital cities.  This data is based on median prices over the three months to November 2015. Sydney has the greatest median house ($950,000) and unit price ($675,000).  In fact, Sydney’s median unit price is higher than the median house price in all other cities except Melbourne where they sit at the same level.  To put the differential into some perspective the combined median house ($495,000) and unit price ($400,000) is lower than the median house price in Sydney.
<a href="/images/2015/12/7/Screen%20Shot%202015-12-07%20at%202.17.54%20PM.png" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="/images/2015/12/7/Screen%20Shot%202015-12-07%20at%202.17.54%20PM.png" alt="" width="626" height="308">
 
It is important to remember that the median price provides an indication of the typical home selling at a period of time.  It can be impacted by compositional bias if lower or higher priced stock is selling.  Nevertheless it does afford an understanding of what the typical home is currently selling for.
To better understand exactly how much Sydney has separated from the rest of the capital cities in pricing terms, we’ve looked at the approximate dollar value change from the recent low point in the market through to the end of November.  The data shows that home values have increased substantially across Sydney and those who have owned a property in Sydney for more than a few years are likely to have accumulated a sizeable level of equity in their property.
<a href="/images/2015/12/7/Screen%20Shot%202015-12-07%20at%202.19.12%20PM.png" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="/images/2015/12/7/Screen%20Shot%202015-12-07%20at%202.19.12%20PM.png" alt="" width="775" height="610">
At their most recent low, Sydney median house prices were recorded at $620,000 and median unit prices were $465,000. From that time to the end of November Sydney house values had increased by 51.7% and unit values by 38.3%.  In dollar value terms this is an increase of $320,265 and $178,245 respectively. Of course some of that increase may be due to improvements however, that rise in the value of Sydney houses and units are much greater than increases in all other capital cities.
The substantial rise in prices and the subsequent boost in housing equity probably also points to why many lifestyle markets are now seeing value rises.  Anecdotally, home owners from Sydney and Melbourne are now more able to purchase lifestyle properties given the wealth effect of higher property prices.  It also indicates that someone could sell out of Sydney, buy into another market and pocket a significant amount of capital from the balance from the sale.  This is probably quite appealing to some Sydney-siders that are retired or close to retirement as well as those that own their own business.
Cameron Kusher is research analyst for CoreLogic RP Data. You can contact him <a href="https://blog.corelogic.com.au/author/cameron-kusher/" target="_blank">here</a>.
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Sydney prices have separated from the rest of the country: Cameron Kusher

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Looking at data for the 50 most populous non-capital city council areas, the majority of them have seen house and unit values increase over the 12 months to May 2017. 
The data indicates that after a long period of soft housing market conditions following the financial crisis, housing demand is starting to pick up across many of the larger regional areas. 
Those areas that are continuing to see values fall are in many instances linked to the mining and resources sector.
Of the non-capital city council areas analysed, the Wollongong council area is the most expensive for houses ($730,427) and units ($530,170) as well as having seen the greatest increase in house values and the fourth highest increase in unit value over the past year. 
The Wollongong housing market has seen housing demand rise as demand ripples away from Sydney where affordability constraints are more pressing. 
Additionally, prices are being pushed higher as more people seek out coastal and lifestyle properties.
In New South Wales in particular, regional areas of the state, particularly those reasonably close to Sydney are generally seeing strong value growth. 
This is most likely linked to affordability relative to Sydney as well as Sydney home owners using the equity in their home to purchase investment properties in lifestyle markets.
The regional areas of Victoria, particularly those close to Melbourne, are experiencing value growth however, it is nowhere near the magnitude to which values are growing in those locations close to Sydney. 
Although values are rising, the relatively softer growth can be linked to the fact that values have not risen as sharply in Melbourne as they have in Sydney and subsequently affordability hasn’t deteriorated as severely in Melbourne.
Queensland’s results are somewhat more mixed with the south-east corner generally seeing values rise while elsewhere growth is extremely mild or values have fallen.
<a href="https://www.urban.com.au/news/2017-06-23--pp1.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge </a>
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2017/06/29/2017-06-23--pp1.jpg" alt="">
In fact, the Gold and Sunshine Coasts and Noosa are seeing more rapid value growth than Brisbane is. 
It seems as if a lot of demand across these regions is coming from the accelerating internal migration to Queensland and buyers from Sydney and Melbourne that have substantial equity in their homes and are looking for lifestyle properties.
Of the areas that we looked at, each of the 24 regions we highlighted in New South Wales have recorded value growth for houses over the past year. 
For units, only 4 of the 24 regions have recorded value falls over the past 12 months.
In Victoria we highlighted 10 regional council areas in the analysis. 
Of these regions analysed, two recorded value falls over the year for houses and 2 regions also recorded falls for unit values. 
Greater Shepparton was the only council area of the state which recorded value falls for houses and units.
Of the 13 regions highlighted for Queensland, five have recorded value falls for houses over the past year and seven have recorded declines for units.
Each of the regions highlighted in Western Australia have recorded value falls over the past year for houses and units.
Launceston was the only region analysed in Tasmania and it has seen house and unit values rise over the past year. 
It should be noted while values have increased they have done so at a more moderate pace than those in Hobart.
Overall it seems that housing demand in regional areas of the country is rising. 
While many regions are seeing value increase, the strongest demand appears to be in those areas within relatively close proximity to capital cities, particularly those which are coastal and tap into lifestyle demand.
Cameron Kusher is research analyst for CoreLogic. You can contact him <a href="https://blog.corelogic.com.au/about/">here</a>.
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Gladstone houses and apartment struggling as regions typically see values rise: Corelogic

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With home values rising across most capital cities, the proportion of home sales below $400,000 continues to trend lower making it harder for price-sensitive buyers to purchase into capital city markets.
Over the 12 months to July 2015, combined capital city home values have increased by 11.1%. Most capital cities also have median prices which are now above $400,000 resulting in fewer more affordable properties available for sale.
37.4% of all home sales nationally were at less than $400,000 compared to 52.0% between $400,000 and $1 million and 10.6% over $1 million over the 12 months to June 2015. Sales below $400,000 were at a record low over the past year and sales above $1 million were at a record high. Focusing just on capital cities, 25.1% of home sales were under $400,000, 60.1% were between $400,000 and $1 million and 14.8% were in excess of $1 million.
<a href="/images/2015/08/31/2015-08-30--01--annual-capital-city-home-sales-price-point-over-time.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="/images/2015/08/31/2015-08-30--01--annual-capital-city-home-sales-price-point-over-time.jpg" alt="">
Ten years ago, the proportion of sales under $400,000 had fallen sharply relative to 10 years earlier. At this time, 66.2% of houses and 73.8% of units had sold over the year for less than $400,000. In comparison, 4.0% of houses and 2.3% of units across the capital cities sold for more than $1 million.
<a href="/images/2015/08/31/2015-08-30--03--sales-price-point-year-june-2005.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<h3>% of sales by price point – year to June 2005</h3>
<img src="/images/2015/08/31/2015-08-30--03--sales-price-point-year-june-2005.jpg" alt="">
Five years ago, around a third of all capital city house sales (34.1%) and 46.4% of units sold for less than $400,000. At the same time, 10.1% of capital city houses and 3.8% of units sold for more than $1 million.
Click to enlarge
<h3>% of sales by price point – year to June 2010</h3>
<img src="/images/2015/08/31/2015-08-30--04--sales-price-point-year-june-2010.jpg" alt="">
Over the past year, Canberra (7.4%) and Sydney (7.8%) have recorded the lowest proportion of house sales under $400,000 over the year. Hobart (61.2%) was the only city to have more than half of all house sales over $1 million. The unit market offers more opportunity to purchase below $400,000 however, each of Sydney (16.3%), Melbourne (35.9%), Perth (38.5%), Darwin (29.7%) and Canberra (43.3%) recorded a majority of unit sales above this price point.
 
<a href="/images/2015/08/31/Screen%20Shot%202015-08-31%20at%203.35.58%20PM.png" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<h3>% of sales by price point – year to June 2015</h3>
<img src="/images/2015/08/31/Screen%20Shot%202015-08-31%20at%203.35.58%20PM.png" alt="" width="763" height="303">
There was a record high proportion of houses and units sold for more than $1 million over the past 12 months. In Sydney, more than a third of all houses (36.8%) sold for more than $1 million. Melbourne had the second highest proportion of sales over $1 million (17.7%). Although Melbourne had a record high proportion of houses sold over $1 million it was less than half the proportion of sales in excess of $1 million recorded in Sydney. For units, Sydney had the highest proportion of sales over $1 million (11.6%) and was the only capital city in which more than 10% of unit sales were in excess of $1 million. In fact, Sydney had a higher proportion of unit sales over $1 million than each of Brisbane, Adelaide, Hobart, Darwin and Canberra had for houses.
Although we anticipate that the rate of capital growth will slow over the coming year we still expect values to generally rise. As a result we would expect a further decline in the proportion of homes selling below $400,000.
Tim Lawless is head of the CoreLogic RP Data research and analytics team and can be contacted <a href="https://blog.corelogic.com.au/author/timlawless/" target="_blank">here</a>.
 
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Proportion of sales below $400,000 keeps falling: Tim Lawless

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According to the just-launched CoreLogic-Moody’s Analytics Australian Forecast Home Value Index, home values are forecast to continue rising solidly in Sydney and Melbourne over the next decade. 
<a href="/images/2016/02/29/Modys.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="/images/2016/02/29/Modys.jpg" alt="">
 
<div>It sees annual price growth of more than +5 per cent returning for Perth by 2017, but subdued growth for Adelaide over the next two years, while Darwin prices are expected to decline in 2016.</div>
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<div>Of the capital cities, Brisbane is forecast to fare best over the next two years with home value growth of around +12 per cent.</div>
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PETE WARGENT is the co-founder of <a href="https://allenwargent.com/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">AllenWargent</a> property buyers (London, Sydney) and a best-selling author and <a href="https://petewargent.blogspot.com/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">blogger</a>. 
His latest book is <a href="https://www.bigskypublishing.com.au/Books/General-Interest/Four-Green-Houses--and-a-Red-Hotel/1015/productview.aspx" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">Four Green Houses and a Red Hotel</a>.
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10 year home price forecast for Sydney: Pete Wargent

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Housing markets show different performances geographically as well as across product types and pricing points.  
Across the capital cities, a useful measure of capital gain across broad price points is our stratified hedonic index.  
The CoreLogic RP Data Stratified Hedonic Index looks at the movement in home values across three broad value based segments of the housing market.  The three segments are divided across quartiles and provide an insight about capital gains across the most affordable 25% of capital city suburbs, the middle 50% of capital city suburbs and the most expensive 25% of capital city suburbs.
<a href="/images/2015/11/23/Chart-11.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="/images/2015/11/23/Chart-11.jpg" alt="">
 
Over the 12 months to October 2015, dwelling values across the combined capital cities increased by 8.2% across the most affordable suburbs, 9.6% across the middle priced suburbs and 11.4% over the most expensive suburbs.  The trends are somewhat different over the past three months with the most affordable suburbs recording the strongest value rises.  
Over the period, the most affordable suburbs have seen values increased by 1.5% compared to 1.2% growth across the middle market and a 1.3% increase in values across the most expensive suburbs.  Over the current growth phase, which broadly commenced in June of 2012, combined capital city home values have increased by 26.5% across the most affordable quarter of capital city suburbs, by 32.4% across the ‘middle’ of the market and by 33.7% across the most expensive quarter of suburbs.
<a href="/images/2015/11/23/Chart-21.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="/images/2015/11/23/Chart-21.jpg" alt="">
 
Looking at the data across the five largest capital cities shows some quite different results.  Across the most affordable capital city suburbs, home value changes over the past year have been recorded at +14.3% in Sydney, +8.8% in Melbourne, +3.1% in Brisbane, +3.4% in Adelaide and -1.4% in Perth.
  Looking at the middle 50% of suburbs the value changes over the past year have been recorded at: +14.8% in Sydney, +11.2% in Melbourne, +4.6% in Brisbane, +2.6% in Adelaide and -2.9% in Perth.  Finally the most expensive quarter of the market recorded value changes over the past year of +17.1% in Sydney, +14.6% in Melbourne, +3.5% in Brisbane, +1.5% in Adelaide and -4.3% in Perth. 
Based on these results you can see that it has been the most expensive suburbs recording the greatest value rises in Sydney and Melbourne with the most affordable suburbs recording the slowest rate of growth.  In Brisbane the middle market is seeing the greatest rise in values while the most affordable suburbs are seeing the slowest rate of growth. In Adelaide and Perth the best performed segment is the most affordable end of the market with the most expensive suburbs the weakest. Note that in Perth all three segments analysed have recorded value falls over the past year.
Focussing on quarterly data, the most affordable suburbs have been the strongest for growth in Melbourne, Adelaide in Perth. The middle market has recorded the strongest value growth over the quarter in Brisbane while in Sydney the most expensive suburbs have recorded the highest rate of value growth.
The differing performance of the segments provides a good insight into the current market dynamics as to where housing demand is strongest.  In Sydney and Melbourne it is typically higher priced stock, in Brisbane it is the middle market and in Adelaide and Perth demand is largely for more affordable housing stock. 
As the rate of growth slows in Sydney and Melbourne we are likely to see the profile of where demand is strongest also change in those cities.  Furthermore, if Sydney and Melbourne buyers look to purchase in other cities they may be able to afford more expensive stock than the local buyers in Brisbane, Adelaide and Perth.  As a result we may see higher levels of value growth across the higher priced market segments.
Cameron Kusher is research analyst for CoreLogic RP Data. You can contact him <a href="https://blog.corelogic.com.au/author/cameron-kusher/" target="_blank">here</a>.
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Different magnitudes of market value changes: Cameron Kusher

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Combined capital city home values have increased substantially since the financial crisis in 2008 however, this is largely being driven by Sydney and Melbourne with value growth muted in most other capital cities.
As the financial crisis hit in 2007/08, Australia’s combined capital city housing markets experienced a -6.1% decline in home values between March and December 2008.  Due to aggressive interest rate cuts by the Reserve Bank (RBA) and the introduction of the boost to the First Home Owners Grant, further home value declines were averted.  In fact, home values began to rise across two cycles; from December 2008 and in June 2016, 7.5 years later, combined capital city home values are now 54.9 percent higher.
The first chart highlights the increases in home values over the past 7.5 years.  What is immediately noticeable is that the increases have been all about Sydney (87.9 percent) and Melbourne (71.8 percent).  In fact, most other capital cities have recorded growth which is around or below the rate of inflation.
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<h3>Total change in capital city dwelling values December 2008 to June 2016</h3>
<a href="/images/2016/07/19/2016-07-15--image1.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="/images/2016/07/19/2016-07-15--image1.jpg" alt="">
From December 2008, combined capital city home values increased until October 2010, rising by 21.8 percent. 
Official interest rates were first increased coming out of the financial crisis in October 2009, rising by 175 basis points to November 2010.  The boost to the First Home Buyers Grant was partially removed in September 2009 and completely removed after December 31 2010.  These combined factors saw the rate of value growth slow, followed by a decline in dwelling values. 
The second chart highlights that from December 2008 to October 2010 dwelling values rose in all cities with Sydney, Melbourne and Darwin the standouts.  Despite very low interest rates, Brisbane, Adelaide, Perth and Hobart recorded little value growth over this period.
<h3>Total change in capital city dwelling values December 2008 to October 2010</h3>
<a href="/images/2016/07/19/2016-07-15--image2.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="/images/2016/07/19/2016-07-15--image2.jpg" alt="">
Between October 2010 and May 2012 as stimulus was removed from the housing market, combined capital city home values fell by -7.4 percent.  Darwin, Melbourne and Brisbane recorded the largest falls over the period.  Looking back at this period it is clear that low interest rates and first home buyer incentives stimulated the market and, as they were removed, demand was shown to be fragile. 
In October 2010, official interest rates were recorded at 4.75 percent and by May 2012 they had fallen by 100 basis points to 3.75 percent.
<h3>Total change in capital city dwelling values October 2010  to May 2012</h3>
<a href="/images/2016/07/19/2016-07-15--image3.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
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From May 2012 to June 2016, combined capital city home values have increased by 37.3 percent while official interest rates fell by 200 basis points to 1.75 percent.  Although home values have increased over the period, Sydney and Melbourne have recorded a substantially higher rate of value growth than all other capital cities. 
<h3>Total change in capital city dwelling values May 2012 to June 2016</h3>
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The data indicates that since the financial crisis the capital city housing market could be described as being extremely interest rate sensitive.  Digging deeper into the data shows that in reality it is only Sydney and Melbourne that have really responded to the stimulus of low interest rates.  The relative strength of the Sydney and Melbourne economies and the much greater employment growth has clearly assisted drive housing values higher in these cities.
Until the economic performance improves outside of Sydney and Melbourne it seems unlikely that sustainable growth will return in these areas despite the extremely low interest rates which are set to potentially move even lower over the coming months.  For Sydney and Melbourne although affordability is increasingly becoming stretched home owners have experienced a substantial increase in equity. 
With historically weak rental markets and record low yields it will be interesting to see if investors and upgraders in the two largest capital cities continue to show a thirst for housing in these cities given the growth phase has now been running for more than four years.
Cameron Kusher is research analyst for CoreLogic RP Data. You can contact him <a href="https://blog.corelogic.com.au/about/">here</a>.
 
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