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The Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) released building approvals data for August 2014 earlier this month.
At a headline level, dwelling approvals were 3.0% higher over the month and are now 14.5% year on year. With 16,810 approvals over the month there is clearly a strong level of residential development activity with monthly approvals just -5.0% lower than their recent peak.
<img src="/images/2014/10/8/Chart-1.jpg" alt="">
Of the 16,810 dwelling approvals in recorded over the month of August, 9,401 were for houses and the remaining 7,409 were mulit-unit dwellings (typically apartments).
Over the month, house approvals fell by -1.4% while unit approvals rose by 9.2%. Year-on-year, house approvals are 12.6% higher while unit approvals are up 17.1%. 
As the chart above shows, the six month trend indicates a slowing of dwelling approval numbers and it also shows that monthly movements in unit approvals tend to be much more volatile. Also remember that a multi-unit development is more risky than developing a single house and ultimately less likely to ultimately be constructed.
<img src="/images/2014/10/8/Chart-2.jpg" alt="">
Focussing on dwelling approvals on an annual basis we have seen more house and unit approvals than ever before over the 12 months to August 2014. Over the 12 month period there were 197,571 dwelling approvals, of which 111,020 were for houses and 86,552 were units. The annual number of approvals has increased by 19.2% over the past year.
Although approvals have surged, as the chart shows it is largely due to a significant lift in unit approvals. Although the number of unit approvals over the past year was at a record high, house approvals are still -6.8% lower than their previous peak over the year to July 2010 and -21.2% lower than their all-time high of 140,832 over the year to April 1989.
Historically, units have been much less likely to move from approval to construction. Units also tend to be much more likely to be owned by investors than houses. 
With the Reserve Bank flagging that deliberations are ongoing into the introduction of macroprudential policies to slow the level of investor activity in the housing market, there is potentially an even bigger than normal risk that these units won't make it to completion.
<img src="/images/2014/10/8/Chart-3.jpg" alt="">
Across the combined capital cities, there was an all-time high of 147,122 dwellings approved for construction over the 12 months to August 2014. The number of capital city dwelling approvals has increased by 21.9% over the past year. 
Over the year there were, 71,662 approvals for houses and 75,460 unit approvals with house approvals up 20.6% and unit approvals 23.2% higher.
Much like the national results you can see that unit approvals are at their higher levels while house approvals are only just approaching their previous peak levels.
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Across the individual capital cities, Brisbane has recorded the greatest increase in dwelling approvals over the year (41.8%) followed by: Perth (24.9%), Adelaide (24.0%) and Sydney (23.3%). Dwelling approvals are lower over the year in Darwin (-6.8%) and Canberra (-6.4%) while Melbourne (16.3%) and Hobart (19.4%) have recorded only moderate rises in dwelling approvals. 
Despite certain cities recording significant rises in dwelling approvals, Sydney and Melbourne have accounted for more than 57% of all capital city dwelling approvals over the past year. With 26,123 dwelling approvals over the past year, approvals in Perth are at a record high while Brisbane approvals are just shy of their record high.
<img src="/images/2014/10/8/Chart-5.jpg" alt="">
A key driver of the overall increase in dwelling approvals has been the rising prominence of the unit market. Over the past year, the increase in unit approvals has been greater than the increase in house approvals in Sydney, Brisbane, Adelaide and Perth.  Although unit approvals have recorded greater increases in these cities, there has been a substantial decline in unit approvals across Hobart and falls in both Darwin and Canberra.
<img src="/images/2014/10/8/Chart-6.jpg" alt="">
With more than half of all capital city dwelling approvals for units as opposed to houses, all individual capital cities except for Adelaide (31.8%), Perth (25.9%) and Hobart (7.0%) are seeing a majority of approvals for units. In Sydney, 67.7% of dwelling approvals were for units over the past year, elsewhere 53.0% were for units in Melbourne, 55.9% in Brisbane, 63.2% in Darwin and 57.9% in Canberra.
Sydney has consistently approved more units than houses since 1993 and Darwin has consistently approved more units than houses since 2003, while across the other cities it is a relatively new phenomenon.  
Melbourne has only been approving more units than houses since mid-2012, in Brisbane it has occurred since mid-2013 and in Canberra since mid-2010. Of course, there is an increasing level of demand for units, but particularly in Melbourne and Brisbane the number of units in the pipeline is largely untested in the market. 
Furthermore, units tend to be more appealing to the investor market rather than owner occupiers. While demand may currently be strong it remains to be seen whether there is enough investor demand to satisfy all of the supply in the pipeline.
Dwelling approvals remain at a very high level and with the rate of population growth slowing it is encouraging to see that supply is finally responding.  With their lower price point compared to houses and superior rental returns no doubt we are seeing a rising level of demand for units, particularly in inner city markets. 
Of course, the Reserve Bank of Australia has raised concerns about the level of investment lending which is most prominent for inner city units.
If controls are introduced to slow the level of investment there may be an adverse impact on demand and subsequently values of inner city units, particularly new inner city units which are a strong target from the investment segment of the market.
 
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ckusher-ujnxiKuFQs

Units are driving dwelling approvals, but will they get built?

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Last week the Reserve Bank’s (RBA) Head of Financial Stability Luci Ellis gave an interesting speech entitled ‘Property Markets and Financial Stability: What We Know So Far.' 
In my opinion one of the more interesting pieces of analysis in the speech was the analysis of inner city housing prices relative to those in the outer ring.  The chart below was the analysis showed in the speech.
<a href="/images/2015/09/16/Chart-12.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="/images/2015/09/16/Chart-12.jpg" alt="">
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Regarding this chart, the speech noted the following key points:
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<li>Land is two things: it is both space and place. Many have observed that Australia has plenty of the former. But I think the lesson of past booms as well as recent times is that it’s place – location – that really matters. If we think back to boom–bust episodes of the past, whether in land for new development, railways or prime office buildings, in every case you can see people trying to get their hands on the best locations, to take advantage of whatever future economic outcomes they expect. </li>
<li>Location explains far more of the variation in individual property prices than block size (Hansen 2006). Yes, some people like a bigger garden, for privacy or to enjoy in other ways. But being in the ‘right’ kind of neighbourhood with the best amenities, close to commercial centres and other services, is more important to most people, if their willingness to pay for it is any guide.</li>
<li>The physical reality is that the supply of good locations is more or less fixed in the short term. So any sizeable boost to demand cannot be fully absorbed by more supply. The newly built property is simply not the same as the existing stock, because it’s somewhere else. We should therefore not be surprised that strong demand for property does not just change the general price level for that asset, but also its distribution. We can see this in the increase in prices of inner-ring properties relative to those further out, especially in Sydney</li>
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I agree with this analysis; housing closer to the city centres and closer to major working nodes is more desirable. Also in many capital cities, as we see houses in inner city areas knocked down to make way for higher density development, the underlying land component becomes intrinsically more valuable. Subsequently, the availability of houses in many inner city areas are actually reducing. After I read this section of the speech I decided to go digging in the data to see just how much difference there was in terms of inner city house values and growth in these values over the past year relative to values and growth across the rest of the capital cities.  For the purposes of this analysis we have determined that the inner-city region is within 10 kilometres of each capital city.
<a href="/images/2015/09/16/Chart-22.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="/images/2015/09/16/Chart-22.jpg" alt="">
The above chart shows that in terms of median house values, the proportion of homes above the city-wide median is substantially higher in inner city areas. Even in a city such as Sydney where housing is less affordable, once you shift more than 10 kilometres from the city centre, only 29.3% of suburbs have a median house value above the city-wide median. In all cities, more than half of all inner city suburbs have a median higher than the city-wide median and all non-inner city areas have less than 50% of suburbs with a median greater than the city-wide median.
While the fact that the cost of housing is higher as you move closer to the city-centre the magnitude of the difference is significant. The other factor to consider is the growth in values in the inner-city versus the rest of the city.  This is where the results change somewhat.
<a href="/images/2015/09/16/Chart-31.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="/images/2015/09/16/Chart-31.jpg" alt="">
Sydney is probably the most interesting result here. Although it has seen the sharpest rises in home values over the past year, suburbs outside of the 10 kilometre inner ring have generally experienced stronger value growth. Of course it is important to recall that Sydney values have been rising for more than three years, and growth, while continuing, has shifted from inner city areas to more affordable outer housing markets. 
Melbourne, Brisbane, Adelaide and Canberra were the only capital cities in which more than half of the inner city suburbs have recorded value growth in excess of that recorded across the cities. Notably each of Perth, Hobart and Darwin are seeing more outer suburbs outperforming than inner suburbs. Of course it should be remembered that home values are now falling in Perth and Darwin and clearly this is impacting the inner city performance. 
The lesson here of course is just because inner city housing is generally more desirable, it doesn’t mean it is immune from falls in the event of a housing market downturn.
Inner city housing markets will likely remain more desirable than those suburbs further afield, due in large to the abundant amenity typically available in these areas.  Although the desire to live in these inner city areas is strong, the reality is that the cost of housing in these locations is restrictive and the supply is relatively short, so many can’t access the housing they want in these areas. 
As some of the examples show, although housing in inner city areas is more expensive, it doesn’t necessarily mean that value growth will consistently outperform growth across the rest of the city. 
Furthermore, as the Perth and Darwin highlights, inner city housing isn’t bullet-proof and in the event of a housing market downturn it has in the past and will potentially in the future also see value declines.
Cameron Kusher is research analyst for CoreLogic RP Data. You can contact him <a href="https://blog.corelogic.com.au/author/cameron-kusher/" target="_blank">here</a>.
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Inner city housing more expensive but growth not strongest: Cameron Kusher

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The moderation in the rate of growth across our combined capital cities index in September is likely to be a positive development for Australian regulators such as the Reserve Bank and APRA who have been highlighting concerns about the strong rate of value growth in Sydney and Melbourne.
Of course it is only one month and it will be interesting to see whether the slowing trend will persist, particularly as we head into the busy spring selling season. 
<a href="/images/2015/10/16/Screen%20Shot%202015-10-16%20at%208.51.33%20PM.png" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="/images/2015/10/16/Screen%20Shot%202015-10-16%20at%208.51.33%20PM.png" alt="" width="436" height="370" style="line-height: 1.3em;">
The annual expansion in investor-related housing credit has continued at a pace that is higher than APRA’s mandated 10% growth per annum however, July figures from the Reserve Bank show credit for investment housing has increased by 10.8% over the year, down from growth of 11.1% the previous month.
Furthermore, in June investor housing credit rose by 0.6% which was its slowest monthly increase since October 2013. With many banks now placing a premium on investment mortgage interest rates and also increasing serviceability limits on all mortgages we may be starting to see the first evidence of a cooling in investment housing demand.
<a href="/images/2015/10/16/Screen%20Shot%202015-10-16%20at%208.58.44%20PM.png" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="/images/2015/10/16/Screen%20Shot%202015-10-16%20at%208.58.44%20PM.png" alt="" width="414" height="161">
The cumulative effect of tighter lending conditions, more expensive mortgage rates for investors and lower yields, as well as natural affordability constraints and higher levels of new housing supply, is likely to dampen some of the exuberance we have seen across the Sydney and Melbourne housing market. Listing numbers are already showing their seasonal spring climb which will provide a timely test of the housing markets strength through spring.
<a href="/images/2015/10/16/Screen%20Shot%202015-10-16%20at%209.13.16%20PM.png" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="/images/2015/10/16/Screen%20Shot%202015-10-16%20at%209.13.16%20PM.png" alt="" width="555" height="528">
Furthermore auction clearance rates have been trending lower in both Sydney and Melbourne over the past couple of months potentially highlighting a moderation in the rate of home value growth in these cities.
<a href="/images/2015/10/16/Screen%20Shot%202015-10-16%20at%209.00.28%20PM.png" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="/images/2015/10/16/Screen%20Shot%202015-10-16%20at%209.00.28%20PM.png" alt="" width="620" height="436">
Cameron Kusher is research analyst for CoreLogic RP Data. You can contact him <a href="https://blog.corelogic.com.au/author/cameron-kusher/" target="_blank">here</a>.
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Potential cooling in investment housing demand: Cameron Kusher 

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The Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) released building approvals data for July 2015 earlier this week. According to the data there were 19,298 dwelling approvals over the month which represents an increase of 4.2% over the month and a year-on-year rise of 13.4%. Monthly dwelling approvals reached a record high of 20,260 approvals in March 2015 and the July 2015 result represents the fifth largest monthly number of dwelling approvals on record.
<a href="/images/2015/09/02/Chart-1.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="/images/2015/09/02/Chart-1.jpg" alt="">
 
Over the month there were more unit approvals than house approvals. In fact it was only the seventh time on record that there were more units approved over the month than houses, five of which have happened in 2015. Although unit approvals outnumbered house approvals over the month it is important to note that they tend to be much more volatile than house approvals and are ultimately less likely to be built than houses (approximately 85% of all unit approvals proceed through to a completion historically). Although this is the case, particularly for larger unit development, the economic benefit is extended over a longer period because they take much longer to complete.
In July 2015 there were 9,479 houses and 9,819 unit approvals over the month. House approvals fell by -2.6% in July and were -2.1% lower year-on-year.  Meanwhile, unit approvals increased by 11.7% in July (following a fall of -13.3% in June) and were 33.8% higher year-on-year.  On an annual basis there has been a record high 224,121 approvals to July 2015. To put the recent ramp-up in approvals into perspective, three years ago there were just 148,449 approvals over the year.
<a href="/images/2015/09/02/Chart-2.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="/images/2015/09/02/Chart-2.jpg" alt="">
As the number of approvals has increased, the greatest rise has occurred across the multi-unit segment. Over the past 12 months a record high 48.3% of all approvals were for units. If you look just at the capital city markets 55.7% of all dwelling approvals were for units.  
The rise in unit approvals is reflective of changing lifestyle patterns with more and more people preferring to live closer to the city centre and along transport spines where most of these units are located. It also shows that developers are enjoying a level of confidence by seeking approvals for a record high number of units.  
Another factor contributing to the rise in higher density dwelling approvals is changes in town planning policies where governments are aiming to maximise existing transport infrastructure by allowing higher densities along existing and planned transport corridors and mixed use precincts.
<a href="/images/2015/09/02/Chart-3.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="/images/2015/09/02/Chart-3.jpg" alt="">
 
If we look at the types of units that are being approved it is interesting to note the sharp rise in high-rise approvals, that is units in a block of four or more storeys.  Over the past 12 months, a record high 63.4% of all unit approvals were within high-rise projects while a record low 26.2% of approvals were terrace and townhouses and a record low 4.9% of approvals were for units in a one or two storey block. Again, these figures just go to show the heightened level of developer confidence particularly when you consider the relative level of risk associated with high rise development.
The number of dwelling approvals remains high albeit it is slightly lower than recent record highs. Strength in the approvals figures are becoming increasingly reliant on the multi-unit sector which tend to be much more volatile than house approvals. With many banks, credit unions and building societies tightening their lending criteria it will be interesting to see over the coming months if this flows into approvals and causes developer confidence to wane.
No matter what happens with approvals over the coming months and years there is a strong pipeline of new construction, much of which is high-rise and will extend out over a number of years.  Furthermore, with population growth slowing we should see a better relationship between housing supply and housing demand.  This is already being seen by the fact that capital city rental rates are increasing at an historic low rate currently.
Cameron Kusher is research analyst for CoreLogic RP Data. You can contact him <a href="https://blog.corelogic.com.au/author/cameron-kusher/" target="_blank">here</a>.
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Rise in unit approvals drives rebound: Cameron Kusher

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As a result of new lending criteria delivered to deposit-taking institutions by Australian Prudential Regulation Authority (APRA) a lot of attention has been placed on the pace of lending for residential housing investment. 
The APRA guidelines highlighted a limit on annual investment credit growth for ADIs of 10% however, from that point until June 2015 the annual rate of investment credit growth continued to increase.
<a href="/images/2015/09/03/Screen%20Shot%202015-09-03%20at%2012.30.35%20PM.png" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="/images/2015/09/03/Screen%20Shot%202015-09-03%20at%2012.30.35%20PM.png" alt="">
 
Although it’s only one month of data, the latest housing credit data to July 2015 suggests that we may be finally set to see a slowing of investment credit growth. 
Over the 12 months to July 2015, the Reserve Bank (RBA) reports that total housing credit rose by 7.4%; its fastest annual rate of growth since October 2010, and consisted of a 5.3% annual increase in owner occupier credit (fastest growth since March 2012) and a 10.8% annual rise in investor credit.
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<img src="/images/2015/09/03/Screen%20Shot%202015-09-03%20at%2012.31.43%20PM.png" alt="">
 
Investor housing credit is still growing at a robust pace however, at 10.8% over the year it is down from 11.1% in June and at its lowest level since March 2015. “In fact, the monthly investor housing credit data shows credit advanced by just 0.6% in July which was its lowest monthly increase since October 2013. 
Investment segment lending data on the investment segment suggests that following recent changes to lending policies by Australian ADIs, lending to the investment segment of the market is set to slow further over the coming months. 
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With mortgage rates remaining low we would anticipate the rate of growth will slow to around the 10% per annum benchmark, however this is unlikely to drop much further than that.
While any slowdown in investment growth may have an impact on overall housing credit figures, Mr Kusher noted that it’s important to recall that a much greater proportion of overall lending goes to owner occupiers. 
In July 2015, the total value of outstanding housing credit was $1.476 trillion. This figure was comprised of $906.4 billion in lending to owner occupiers and $569.8 billion to investors. 
It’s important to remember that the rate of growth in owner occupier lending has also been rising although over the past year there was a $45.2 billion expansion in credit to owner occupiers compared to $56.1 billion to investors. Furthermore, the proportion of total mortgage credit to investors is at a record high 38.6%. 
ADIs of course don’t lend exclusively for mortgages and the latest data shows an encouraging lift in credit to businesses. In July 2015 business credit rose by 0.7% to be 4.8% higher over the year. Total business credit is currently recorded at $799.7 billion, which is significantly larger than investment housing credit.
<a href="/images/2015/09/03/Screen%20Shot%202015-09-03%20at%2012.33.38%20PM.png" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="/images/2015/09/03/Screen%20Shot%202015-09-03%20at%2012.33.38%20PM.png" alt="">
 
The RBA and APRA are likely to be very encouraged to see the first signs of a slowing of lending to the investment housing segment and would hope that it continues over the coming months. 
While this may result in a slight slowing in overall housing credit growth increases, this shouldn’t be viewed as a negative outcome. If the recent increase in business credit can continue it would arguably provide greater economic benefit. 
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Cameron Kusher is research analyst for CoreLogic RP Data. You can contact him <a href="https://blog.corelogic.com.au/author/cameron-kusher/" target="_blank">here</a>.
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Has growth in investor housing credit reached its apex? Cameron Kusher

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2015 was a lacklustre year for rental growth in Australia with rents increasing by just 0.3% in 2015; not exactly the news investors are looking to read about but good news for those looking to rent.
We’ve never seen rental growth as sluggish as it is at the moment. Furthermore, we’re expecting to see more of the same over the coming months due to increases in the supply of new housing, rental stock and a further slowdown in migration rates. 
The only cities to see an increase in weekly rental rates were Sydney with an increase of 1.9 percent, Melbourne (2.2 percent), Hobart (0.6 percent) and Canberra (1.9 percent) while rates fell in Brisbane by (-0.3 percent), Adelaide (-0.2 percent), Perth (-8.0 percent) and Darwin (-13.3 percent).  
A comparison between December 2015 and December 2014 shows in 2014 annual rental growth was slowing but was tracking at a much higher 1.8% which highlights just how much the rental market eased throughout 2015. 
<a href="/images/2016/01/12/Screen%20Shot%202016-01-12%20at%209.21.53%20AM.png" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="/images/2016/01/12/Screen%20Shot%202016-01-12%20at%209.21.53%20AM.png" alt="">
The construction boom across the capital cities, coupled with slowing population growth, low mortgage rates and the recent heightened level of activity from investors are the major contributing factors to the slowing rental growth in 2015.
Although Sydney and Melbourne saw the largest ramp up in new housing supply, both cities still recorded rental increases over the year, although rental growth is slowing relative to 12 months earlier.
It is clear that the increase in investment stock continues to provide landlords with little scope to lift rental rates while the low mortgage rate environment provides little incentive to push yields higher.
We envisage that growth in rental rates is likely to remain weak or potentially slow even further over the coming months. The good news for those looking to rent is the possibility that rental rates will fall even further over the coming year.
While the news for renters will be welcomed, investors may be facing weaker capital gains coupled with little in the way of rental growth or yield.
The large pipeline of residential construction activity and recent high levels of investment demand means that renters are likely to continue to have plenty of choice.
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Cameron Kusher is research analyst for CoreLogic RP Data. You can contact him <a href="https://blog.corelogic.com.au/about/" target="_blank">here</a>.
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Annual national rental growth lowest on record for landlords: Cameron Kusher

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Housing finance data for November 2015 was released this month by the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) showed that on a seasonally adjusted basis, the value of housing finance commitments rose by 1.8% in November to $33.3 billion.
<a href="/images/2016/01/18/Chart-1-1-580x208.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="/images/2016/01/18/Chart-1-1-580x208.jpg" alt="">
 
Looking at the different components of mortgage lending, it shows that the value of commitments to owner occupier non-first home buyers (subsequent buyers who are generally either upgrading or downgrading) is now greater than the value of commitments to investors. 
With mortgage rates remaining low and competition from lenders being fierce, refinance activity continued to trend higher while demand from the first home buyer segment of the market remains quite weak.  As investment demand has faded, this demand has been replaced by demand from owner occupiers, mainly those upgrading or downgrading.
<a href="/images/2016/01/18/Chart-2-1-580x207.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="/images/2016/01/18/Chart-2-1-580x207.jpg" alt="">
 
In November 2015 there was $21.8 billion worth of housing finance commitments to owner occupiers.  These commitments were split between $1.9 billion for construction of dwellings, $1.2 billion for purchase of new properties, $7.1 billion for refinances and the remaining $11.6 billion for purchase of established properties.  
As the chart shows, demand for new properties (construction and purchase of new) is fairly flat while refinance commitments and those for the purchase of established homes continues to rise strongly. Interestingly after its recent low of $17.6 billion in commitments in May 2015, the value of owner occupier commitments has increased by 23.3% to November 2015. 
If you look at the actual number of owner occupier housing finance commitments over the same period they have increased by a much lower 11.8%. This would suggest that although the number of commitments to owner occupiers is rising, the increase in the value of commitments is being exacerbated by borrowers taking out larger mortgages.
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The value of investor housing finance commitments was recorded at $11.5 billion in November 2015.  Investor mortgage demand has fallen sharply since peaking at $14.2 billion in April 2015, down -18.7% to November 2015.  Although investor mortgage demand has slowed sharply over recent months, it actually rose by 0.7% over the month.
It is important to remember that the Australian Prudential Regulation Authority’s (APRA) guidelines aim to limit housing credit (total value of outstanding mortgages) to investors at 10% per annum.  Investor credit growth was recorded at 9.1% over the year to November 2015, comfortably within these guidelines.  Given this, it is no surprise we have seen a small bounce in investor mortgage demand and we may see further moderate increases over the coming months as lenders aim to grow investor credit at close to the 10% threshold.
Demand remains for mortgages despite the fact that banks have lifted mortgage rates independently of the Reserve Bank cash rate and have increased mortgage rates to investors. Understandably this has seen a slowing of demand from the investor segment of the market however, demand from owner occupiers is rising and currently filling the space. As previously mentioned demand from the investment segment may actually start to pick-up a little due to the fact investor credit growth is now comfortably below 10% per annum. 
With home value growth in Sydney and Melbourne now showing signs of slowing it will be interesting to see over the coming months whether mortgage demand continues to grow. 
If it does it may indicate that although demand in Sydney and Melbourne is slowing it is picking up elsewhere.
Cameron Kusher is research analyst for CoreLogic RP Data. You can contact him <a href="https://blog.corelogic.com.au/about/" target="_blank">here</a>.
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Housing finance demand still growing, driven by owner occupier demand: Cameron Kusher

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The Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) released its quarterly Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for the December 2015 quarter.
The data showed that inflationary pressures remain very low with headline inflation rising 1.7% over the year and core inflation (underlying inflation) increasing by 2.0% over the past year, which is right at the lower end of the Reserve Bank’s (RBA) target range for inflation of 2% to 3%. Of course across most developed nations there are very few inflationary pressures currently despite record low interest rates.
As a follower of the residential housing market I always like to have a look at the impact of inflation on Australian capital city home values by adjusting the CoreLogic RP Data Home Value Index for the impact of inflation. 
As you’d expect with inflation so low it is having minimal impact however, over the longer term it has had an impact on the real increase in capital city home values.
<a href="/images/2016/01/29/Chart-1-2-580x209.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="/images/2016/01/29/Chart-1-2-580x209.jpg" alt="">
With nominal home values increasing by 7.8% in 2015 across the combined capitals, when adjusted for inflation growth is somewhat lower at 6.0% over the year.  In terms of the individual capital city performances the four cities which recorded nominal value increases have still seen values rise in real terms albeit the rate of growth is lower.  Alternatively, the cities which recorded value falls have seen larger value falls in real terms.
<a href="/images/2016/01/29/Chart-2-2-580x206.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="/images/2016/01/29/Chart-2-2-580x206.jpg" alt="">
The trends across the capital city housing markets have shifted substantially since the financial crisis after home values declined during 2008.  Since the financial crisis home value growth has surged in Sydney and Melbourne, while elsewhere the rate of value growth has generally been comparatively modest. 
The chart above shows nominal and real home value changes over the seven years from December 2008 to December 2015.  While Hobart was the only capital city to record a nominal value fall over that time, in real terms values are lower over the past seven years in Brisbane, Adelaide and Perth while they have barely moved in Darwin and Canberra.
<a href="/images/2016/01/29/Chart-3-1-580x210.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="/images/2016/01/29/Chart-3-1-580x210.jpg" alt="">
To further highlight the previous point, the above chart shows the change in real home values across each capital city since their previous cyclical peak.  Sydney and Melbourne are the only two capital cities in which home values are higher than their previous peak. 
After Sydney home values hit a previous peak in March 2004 they are currently 21.1%, in Melbourne home values peaked in September 2010 and are currently 6.5% higher.  Elsewhere home values are -11.0% lower than the March 2008 peak in Brisbane, -9.8% lower than their June 2010 peak in Adelaide, -13.5% lower than their September 2007 peak in Perth, -21.8%  lower than their December 2007 peak in Hobart, -19.3% lower than their September 2010 peak in Darwin, and -8.5% lower than their June 2010 peak in Canberra. 
Despite historic low mortgage rates over recent years, home value growth in real terms over recent years has been soft.
Of course most people don’t think about the ‘real’ growth in home values, we tend to operate in a nominal world.  We see the value of our assets rising and we are generally quite happy with that however, it is important to at times consider the impact of inflation and if our asset values are rising at a faster pace than prices more broadly.
The data shows that even with historic low mortgage rates, real home value growth has failed to show any substantial or sustainable pick-up outside of Sydney and Melbourne.
This suggests that other economic factors are impacting on demand for housing. Furthermore, the drivers of housing demand in Sydney and Melbourne are somewhat different to the rest of the country. Some suggestions as to what these factors are would be the rise in demand from overseas purchasers, greater demand due to better jobs growth and employment prospects as well as the fact that these cities already have more than 4 million people compared to our next largest city at around 2 million people.
The much higher population results in substantially more housing demand than elsewhere in the country.
 
Cameron Kusher is research analyst for CoreLogic RP Data. You can contact him <a href="https://blog.corelogic.com.au/about/" target="_blank">here</a>.
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Sydney and Melbourne are the only capital cities with any significant increase after inflation: Cameron Kusher

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Entering the property market is a tough gig for first home buyers, especially when faced with competition from buyers who hold larger buying budgets, some of which has been accrued from property equity earned as a result of recent strong capital gains.  
While home value rises have been moderate over recent years outside of Sydney and Melbourne, it provides little comfort for first home buyers in the two largest cities who struggle to compete with those that already own homes.
In 2008, combined capital city home values fell by -6.1 percent in the space of 9 months. By the end of the year, home values had reached and began to climb further thereafter. 
<a href="/images/2016/05/25/Screen%20Shot%202016-05-26%20at%203.35.10%20PM.png" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="/images/2016/05/25/Screen%20Shot%202016-05-26%20at%203.35.10%20PM.png" alt="">
The growth drivers largely came from two forms of stimulus: aggressive interest rate cuts and a boost to the First Home Owners Grant (FHOG). Since the removal of the FHOG boost and scaling back and complete removal of others, first home buyers have continued to languish at near record-low levels.
The increase in home values across each capital city from December 2008 to April 2016 can be seen in the first of the adjacent charts. Another way to think about this is that if in December 2008 you owned a home worth $500,000 it is now worth $758,418 which is $258,418 more than in December 2008. Looking at this same calculation across each capital city, the increases in value over that time based on a $500,000 home owned in December 2008 are: Sydney ($400,825), Melbourne ($338,866), Brisbane ($73,417), Adelaide ($81,029), Perth ($64,096), Hobart ($11,263), Darwin ($109,293) and Canberra ($126,262).
The data clearly shows that the value property for home owners has undergone some massive rises, the increase in inflation and wages has been comparatively more sedate. 
Although combined capital city home values have increased by 51.7 percent between December 2008 and April 2016, inflation has increased by a significantly lower 17.1 percent over the period. CPI has increased by a greater amount than values in Brisbane, Adelaide, Perth and Hobart indicating ‘real’ home values have fallen. Meanwhile in Sydney, Melbourne, Darwin and Canberra CPI growth has lagged that of home value growth. 
Looking at wages growth between December 2008 and March 2016, the data shows that nationally, and in New South Wales, Victoria and the ACT, it has lagged value growth across the capital cities; wages are now growing at their slowest pace in at least 18 years. 
While the increases highlighted include strong wage increases in the latter part of the mining boom, nonetheless, it shows that in NSW and Vic wages are increasing at a much slower pace than home values in Sydney and Melbourne are. 
The last chart shows the change in the value of new lending (excluding refinances) to investors, owner occupier first home buyers and subsequent buyers between December 2008 and March 2016, and highlights how the value of lending to owner occupier first home buyers is now lower than it was in December 2008 across each state and territory. 
This has occurred despite the increase in home values over the timeframe.
While lending to owner occupier first home buyers has fallen, lending to investors and subsequent buyers has increased in most states and territories with substantial rises in NSW and Vic.
Outside of Sydney and Melbourne home values have increased below or at a similar pace to inflation and wages, however, it is a very different story in the two largest capital cities where existing Sydney and Melbourne home owners have seen significant increases in the ‘real’ value of their home.
Those that do not yet own a property will struggle to compete with investors and upgraders who have been active in the market and where significant equity has been acquired.
<a href="/images/2016/05/25/Screen%20Shot%202016-05-26%20at%203.36.10%20PM.png" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="/images/2016/05/25/Screen%20Shot%202016-05-26%20at%203.36.10%20PM.png" alt="">
The simple answer for first home buyers, particularly in Sydney and Melbourne, is to look to buy properties outside of these cities however, that may seem a little simplistic given jobs creation has not been as strong outside of Sydney and Melbourne and for many moving interstate, employment opportunities are generally a big decision.
Even buying outside of Sydney in nearby regional cities may not be attractive because transport infrastructure does not provide quick and efficient access to Sydney and Melbourne from nearby regional cities. 
Whatever the outcome, we certainly don’t advocate for the return of grants for first home buyers as they have tended to just push up the cost of housing.
Cameron Kusher is research analyst for CoreLogic RP Data. You can contact him <a href="https://blog.corelogic.com.au/about/">here</a>.
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Investors and owner occupiers keeping first home buyers out of market: CoreLogic RP Data's Cameron Kusher

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While home value rises have been moderate over recent years outside of Sydney and Melbourne, it provides little comfort for first home buyers in the two largest cities who struggle to compete with those that already own homes.
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In 2008, combined capital city home values fell by -6.1 percent in the space of 9 months. By the end of the year, home values had reached and began to climb thereafter.
The drivers of this growth was largely two forms of stimulus: aggressive interest rate cuts and a boost to the First Home Owners Grant (FHOG). Since the boost to the FHOG was removed and many of the existing grants were removed or scaled back, first home buyers have continued to languish at near record low levels. The harsh reality is that first home buyers are struggling to compete with those who already own a home or who are investing.
The first chart highlights the increase in home values across each capital city from December 2008 to April 2016. Another way to think about this is that if in December 2008 you owned a home worth $500,000 it is now worth $758,418 which is $258,418 more than in December 2008. Looking at this same calculation across each capital city, the increases in value over that time based on a $500,000 home owned in December 2008 are: Sydney ($400,825), Melbourne ($338,866), Brisbane ($73,417), Adelaide ($81,029), Perth ($64,096), Hobart ($11,263), Darwin ($109,293) and Canberra ($126,262).
<h3>Cumulative change in home values December 2008 to April 2016</h3>
<a href="/images/2016/05/30/2016-05-30---img1.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="/images/2016/05/30/2016-05-30---img1.jpg" alt="">
While the value of a home owner’s property has undergone massive rises, the increase in inflation and wages has been comparatively more sedate.
<h3>Cumulative change in CPI (inflation)  December 2008 to March 2016</h3>
<a href="/images/2016/05/30/2016-05-30---img2.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="/images/2016/05/30/2016-05-30---img2.jpg" alt="">
Although combined capital city home values have increased by 51.7 percent between December 2008 and April 2016, inflation has increased by a significantly lower 17.1 percent over the period. CPI has increased by a greater amount than values in Brisbane, Adelaide, Perth and Hobart indicating ‘real’ home values have fallen. Meanwhile in Sydney, Melbourne, Darwin and Canberra CPI growth has lagged that of home value growth.
Looking at wages growth between December 2008 and March 2016, it shows that nationally and in New South Wales, Victoria and the ACT it has lagged value growth across the capital cities. It should be noted that wages are now growing at the slowest pace in at least 18 years and that the increases highlighted do include strong wage increases in the latter part of the mining boom. Nonetheless, the data highlights that in NSW and Vic wages are increasing at a much slower pace than home values in Sydney and Melbourne are.
<h3>Cumulative change in Wage Price Index December 2008 to March 2016</h3>
<a href="/images/2016/05/30/2016-05-30---img3.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="/images/2016/05/30/2016-05-30---img3.jpg" alt="">
The final chart shows the change in the value of new lending (excluding refinances) to investors, owner occupier first home buyers and subsequent buyers between December 2008 and March 2016. The chart highlights how the value of lending to owner occupier first home buyers is now lower than it was in December 2008 across each state and territory. This has occurred despite the increase in home values over the timeframe. While lending to owner occupier first home buyers has fallen, lending to investors and subsequent buyers has increased in most states and territories with substantial rises in NSW and Vic.
<h3>Change in the value of new lending to investors, FHB and subsequent buyers December 2008 vs. March 2016</h3>
<a href="/images/2016/05/30/2016-05-30---img4.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="/images/2016/05/30/2016-05-30---img4.jpg" alt="">
While outside of Sydney and Melbourne home values have increased below or at a similar pace to inflation and wages, it is a very different story in the two largest capital cities. Existing owners of homes in Sydney and Melbourne have seen a significant increase in the ‘real’ value of their home. Subsequently those that do not yet own struggle to compete with investors and upgraders that have been so active in the market and already have significant equity.
The simple answer to this problem is that first home buyers in Sydney and Melbourne should look to buy properties outside of these cities however, that may be a little simplistic. Job creation has not been as strong outside of Sydney and Melbourne and for many moving interstate, employment opportunities are generally a big decision. Even buying outside of Sydney in nearby regional cities may not be attractive because transport infrastructure does not provide quick and efficient access to Sydney and Melbourne from nearby regional cities.
We certainly don’t advocate for the return of grants for first home buyers as they have tended to just push up the cost of housing. Prospective first home buyers are facing some tough choices as they compete with other segments of the market who may have larger budgets or a great deal of equity behind them thanks to a history of strong capital gains. Remaining (or joining) the rental market is one option that many may choose, considering weekly rents are down 0.2 percent across the combined capitals.
Those choosing to rent may decide to make their first home purchase an investment property in a location that is more affordable and better suits their budget. For those first home buyers looking to buy their first home to live in, their options will often be limited to the city outskirts if they are to purchase a detached dwelling, or compromising on space to live closer to where they work and play by choosing a higher density option.
Cameron Kusher is research analyst for CoreLogic RP Data. You can contact him <a href="https://blog.corelogic.com.au/about/">here</a>.
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Cameron Kusher

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