Property market

The Brisbane unit market is showing consistent growth,&nbsp;according to CoreLogic&#39;s Monthly Hedonic Home Value Index.

Values jumped 1.4%, following the 1.6% gains in March and 1.5%&nbsp;over February. Values are now 6% up over 2022 already, well on their way to matching the 14.4% growth over 2021.

The quarterly performance, up 4.6%, is the highest in the country for the unit market.

The median apartment value in Brisbane is now $488,393. At the start of 2021, it was just over $390,000.

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Following the RBA&#39;s first interest rate rise in nearly 12 years at the May meeting,&nbsp;the Real Estate Institute of Queensland (REIQ) said the&nbsp;resilient Queensland market the higher rate forecasts.

REIQ CEO Antonia Mercorella said given the level of inflation, this may not be the last interest rate rise we see, but it was important to recognise that many market conditions and external factors remain favourable in Queensland.

&ldquo;We know that consumer confidence is key, and this move by the RBA will certainly make people stop and think more carefully about how much they are prepared to borrow, because it&rsquo;s a timely reminder that interest rates can and do go up,&rdquo; she said.

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&ldquo;While on the face of it, it&rsquo;s not an insignificant rise, in the grand scheme of things interest rates have been at historic lows for some time and are still very low.

&ldquo;This is also where our relative affordability is an advantage, as our average home loan rate is much lower than in capital cities like Sydney and Melbourne, and so the impact will be felt less here.

&ldquo;We remain confident in the resilience of the Queensland market because the need and demand for housing is irrespective, and an interest rate rise simply causes people to rethink what they are prepared to spend and how big of a loan they are prepared to enter into.&quot;

Total advertised inventory of both houses and apartments&nbsp;is more than 20 per cent below levels from a year ago in Brisbane, and around 40 per cent lower than the previous five-year average.

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The median apartment value in Brisbane is now $488,393. At the start of 2021, it was just over $390,000

Joel Robinson

Brisbane apartment market insights: What happened over April

Melbourne&#39;s unit market has continued to hold firm despite a cooling off in the house market.

CoreLogic&rsquo;s national Home Value Index pegged the Melbourne-wide apartment growth at 0.4% over April, the third consecutive month growth in the unit market has outstripped growth in the house market.

The Melbourne unit market (which incorporates both units and townhouses), is now 0.2% since the start of 2022, after posting 0.2% growth across March and 0.1% in Feb. Values started the year poorly, going backwards -0.4% in January.

The median apartment value in Melbourne is now $630,671.

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The growth in unit values is a stark contrast to the house market, which is sliding due to the affordability factors brought to more of a head following the RBA&#39;s interest rate hike in May, and expectation of further rate hikes.

Houses Melbourne-wide, on average, have remained flat since the start of 2022, but that was mainly due to a strong start in January. The rolling quarterly growth is now -0.5% after a 0.2% decline across April, CoreLogic data found.&nbsp;

CoreLogic&rsquo;s Research Director Tim Lawless&nbsp;says the weakening state of the market has taken the rolling quarterly trend into negative territory across Melbourne for the first time since these cities were in the midst of extended lockdowns in mid-to-late 2020.

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Advertised inventory, at a national level, is tracking almost 30 per cent below the previous five-year average however, in weaker markets like Melbourne, advertised supply levels have normalised, with listings in Melbourne 8.2%&nbsp;higher.

Higher stock levels across these markets can be explained by an above average flow of new listings coming on the market in combination with a drop in buyer demand

&ldquo;With higher inventory levels and less competition, buyers are gradually moving back into the driver&rsquo;s seat. That means more time to deliberate on their purchase decisions and negotiate on price,&rdquo; Lawless says.

Rental markets are also showing multi-speed conditions, with most of the capital cities experiencing an upward trend in rental growth in 2022. Nationally, rents were up 2.7% over the three months to April, taking the annual change in national rents to 9.0%. A year ago, the annual change in national rents was 4.9 per cent. Based on the annual change, house rents (+9.1 per cent) are rising faster than unit rents (+8.7 per cent), however this trend is changing sharply as demand for unit rentals increases.

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&ldquo;On a rolling quarterly basis, we are now seeing unit rents rising faster than house rents especially in Melbourne where rental conditions across the unit sector were previously much softer,&rdquo; Lawless says.

&ldquo;The shift in rental demand towards units reflects both rental affordability pressures, which are deflecting more demand towards the &lsquo;cheaper&rsquo; unit sector, and the return of overseas migrants and visitors. Rental demand from overseas arrivals tends to skew towards inner city and higher density precincts.&rdquo;

In Melbourne, unit rents are 3.6 per cent higher over the past three months compared with a 1.2 per cent rise in house rents. Higher yields and long-term prospects for capital growth could see investors comprising a larger portion of housing market activity.

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With the cash rate set to move through a rapid tightening cycle, CoreLogic expect this trend towards a gradual softening in the growth rate will become more pronounced over the coming months, before the national index starts to trend lower.

&ldquo;Although we are expecting the housing market to move into a downturn through the second half of the year, it is important to remember the context of the recent growth phase,&rdquo; he says.

Melbourne's unit market has continued to hold firm despite a cooling off in the house market


alisonwarters@gmail.com

Melbourne apartment market insights: What happened over April

As Brisbane&rsquo;s median house price skyrockets, the gap to the median apartment price widens, but it&rsquo;s set to be short-lived with Colliers research showing the apartment market tipped is for a dramatic price increase.

Brisbane&rsquo;s median house price increased by 10.7 per cent to $890,000 in the March quarter, according to research by Colliers.

The gap between the median house price and the median apartment price is at 49 per cent, the greatest differential Brisbane has seen in two decades.

However, Colliers Director Residential Queensland Andrew Roubicek believes the city is in for a significant price increase in the apartment market as we move into the second half of 2022, with compounding pressures on the construction sector forcing developers of new stock to lift prices.

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&ldquo;Working closely with developers, builders and architects as part of the project marketing arm of Colliers, and selling more than 5,000 apartments annually, we have seen first-hand the impact of labour and material shortages,&rdquo; Roubicek said.

&ldquo;Costs are rising by up to 30 per cent, and recent floods and COVID-induced issues are intensifying the problem and causing significant delays on construction timeframes.&rdquo;

The impact of cost increases as a result of compounding environmental factors has had a dramatic impact on the construction sector, with several builders entering voluntary administration of falling into receivership.

However, Roubicek said the impacts of the cost increases and external pressures had a far wider reaching implications than the construction sector alone.

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&ldquo;There have been several examples of new developments achieving presale requirements of around 80 per cent, only to have developers refund deposits and tear up contracts because building costs have escalated to a point that the development is financially unviable,&rdquo; he said.

&ldquo;It&rsquo;s left homebuyers utterly upset and disgruntled, particularly in what has become such a competitive market.

&ldquo;As a consequence, developers who are looking to acquire new development sites are forced to increase their projected sale prices by around 20 per cent in their feasibilities. Just 18 months ago a two-bedroom apartment in Brisbane might have sold off the plan for $9,000 per square metre.

&ldquo;But, to build that apartment today the developer would need to achieve a sale price of $11,000 per square metre for the project to stack up. That&rsquo;s a 20 per cent price increase passed directly onto buyers,&rdquo; he added.

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Roubicek said the economic impact of interest rate increases would further impact on housing affordability, forcing buyers back into the apartment market.

&ldquo;Buyers may see better value in the established apartment market in the short-term, as opposed to buying new off the plan. However, this will be a short-lived alternative as supply dries up and investors stake advantage of rental vacancy rates.

&ldquo;We expect surge in demand from investors as the rental vacancy rates continue to fall to less than one per cent and rental yields approach five per cent. This increase in demand will have a significant impact on the second hand apartment pushing up prices reflecting the price of a new apartment.&rdquo;

The gap between the median house price and the median apartment price is a staggering 49 per cent, the greatest differential Brisbane has seen in two decades.



Why Brisbane apartments are set to see significant price growth: Colliers International Australia

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Channel 9 sports commentator and former World Surfing Champion legend Mark Warren and his wife Helen have secured $2,435,000 for their northern beaches home.

Their renovated North Avalon home with vaulted bamboo ceilings sold through LJ Hooker Palm Beach’s David Edwards who was suggesting $2 million plus for the home in North Avalon's so-called golden triangle.

Set two minutes walk to the beach and rockpool, the home sits on a <a href="https://palmbeach.ljhooker.com.au/35AF6Z/15-harley-rd-avalon-beach" target="_blank">level 930-square-metre Harley Road block</a> with tropical gardens. Its kitchen was designed by Brian Boaler.

The empty nest couple, who will downsize locally, bought it for $365,000 in 1995.

This article was first published in the Saturday Daily Telegraph. 

<h2>NSW properties now selling:</h2>

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Surfing champion Mark Warren sells on northern beaches

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This time every year, with the close of February approaching, we all dream of an endless summer. But according to our agents, the sun hasn’t set on the marketplace, and won’t for some time.
Spring and summer have traditionally been the major selling seasons for vendors, but conditions could turn that tradition on its head in the coming cooler months, especially with the recent strength seen in auction markets in both Sydney and Melbourne.
The numbers of people turning out to open-for-inspections have been very strong since the holidays wound up. Many buyers have been enticed by a slowdown in price growth across certain markets.
It is this very demand combined with positive economic fundamentals that will keep real estate markets humming along in 2016.
However, overzealous commentators trying to capture media headlines and mountains of data risk overloading and confusing consumers. It is, therefore, important that buyers and sellers not be swept up in the short-term outlook.
Ensure that you do what is right for your situation and your own investment strategy rather than trying to second-guess the timing of the market.
The best data to keep an eye on is that from your own street and neighbourhood.
Strong employment figures combined with the share market volatility and already historic low-interest rates should negate any “gloom and doom” talk directed towards property markets.
While buyers are out and about, listings are tightening in parts of the country. 
We can see this in Melbourne where a lack of stock has resulted in price growth of 2.5 percent In January, outperforming even Sydney (+0.5%). The figures from CoreLogic RP Data, released last week, could well indicate both these markets are bouncing back following a slow down at the end of last year. 
Overall the economic outlook remains positive with retail spending increasing and cheaper petrol adding more money to family budgets.
Homeowners have income to pay mortgages, interest rates are still low and affordability is improving. Some of these savings will be used by people to try and pay down their debt quicker. 
Homes will spend longer on the market as we return to more normal conditions but it doesn’t necessarily mean sellers will be disappointed with the final result. 
In fact, it could prove to be similar to what I have seen from our Harveys real estate business in New Zealand where prices in Auckland skyrocketed over the past 12 months, driven by migration. Prices there are now starting to moderate to a more sustainable level, as buyer demand turns to more affordable regional markets.
Grant Harrod is chief executive officer of LJ Hooker and can be contacted <a href="https://about.ljhooker.com.au/leadership-team" target="_blank">here</a>.
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The sun hasn’t set on the marketplace: LJ Hooker's Grant Harrod

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GUEST OBSERVER
Suburbs such as Fitzroy and East Melbourne have historically strong capital gains. 
Conventional wisdom is that by investing in neighbouring suburbs that have lower median prices, an investor would achieve stronger growth than in the blue chip suburb. 
This is because they would benefit from the spillover effect of buyers being unable to afford the blue chip locations and the subsequent gentrification of the suburb. 
We have analysed the growth of 5 bride and bridesmaid suburb pairs in inner Melbourne. 
A bride suburb is a relatively expensive suburb with good capital gains. It may be out of reach for a large proportion of property investors due to the high entry point. 
A bridesmaid suburb is a neighbouring suburb that boasts a lot of the qualities that make the bride such a good investment, yet with properties selling for much lower prices. 
To compare, the median sale prices and annual growth rates since 2011 for all suburbs shown in Figure 1 were gathered. 
<a href="/images/2016/08/02/Screen%20Shot%202016-08-02%20at%209.44.23%20AM.png" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
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These suburbs were divided into suitable pairs, based on locality and differences in median prices. The results are shown in Table 1 below.
This data tells us that while entry points for bridesmaid suburbs may be considerably lower, bride suburbs still offer better returns. This is most likely a reflection of these areas being more desirable and having a lower turnover rate, resulting in reduced supply, than their cheaper neighbours. While the average property in Brunswick East can be bought for $150,000 less than comparable properties in Carlton North, median growth over the past five years has been half as good. The best alternative in the list is Kensington, where properties grew in price on average only 0.2 percent less than properties in North Melbourne, while being on the market for about $115,000 less.
<a href="/images/2016/08/02/Screen%20Shot%202016-08-02%20at%209.42.03%20AM.png" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
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To conclude, it is often not the suburb that determines your returns, but rather selecting the right property for the right price. Great returns are possible in almost all of inner Melbourne, provided that the property selected meets the right value criteria.
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For more information, <a href="https://secretagent.com.au/" target="_blank">click here</a>.
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Melbourne's bride and bridesmaid suburbs: Secret Agent

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GUEST OBSERVER
In April, Chinese house prices data showed a further broadening of momentum across the 70 major cities that report.
For new housing, 65 cities reported price gains in April relative to March; that compares to 62, 47, and 38 respectively in March, February and January.
In contrast, momentum in the existing market failed to improve: at 51, the number of cities reporting gains was marginally down on March’s 54, but up from around 35 in January and February.
Relative to a year ago, new and existing housing price growth improved in April, albeit only at the margin. For tier-1 cities, prices for new and existing houses are up 31.5 percent yr (from 29.4 percent yr in March) and 36.1 percent yr (from 35.6 percentyr). Within tier-1, Shenzhen remains the clear leader, with new house prices there up 62.5 percentyr versus the next-best (Shanghai) at 28.6 percent yr. Shenzhen also has the strongest performing existing market, although the divergence is less obvious: 56.2 percent yr against 37.3 percent yr in Beijing and 30.1 percent yr for Shanghai.
Price growth in tier-2 and tier-3 cities remains a striking contrast against tier-1. For tier-2, new and existing house prices have risen 5.0 percent yr and 5.5 percent yr respectively (up from 3.6 percent yr and 4.4 percent yr). And in tier-3, prices are up just 1.6 percent yr and 1.3 percent yr (0.5 percent yr and 0.8 percent yr).
It is certainly a positive that prices are growing in tier-2 and tier-3 cities, but the uptrend is hardly robust. The divergence across the three tiers continues to suggest that, while established wealth is being put to use in the most-developed cities, conditions remain quite subdued elsewhere, with easier policy only having an impact at the margin.
So as to give longevity to the burgeoning upturn in residential activity, there is a need to limit speculative excess at the top while maintaining accommodation to other regional markets.
Clearly there is more work to do in this area.
 
‎Elliot Clarke is director and Senior Economist, Westpac, and can be contacted <a href="https://www.westpac.com.au" target="_blank">here</a>.
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Chinese 70-city property prices: Westpac's Elliot Clarke 

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GUEST OBSERVER
The return to dominance of homebuyers is seen as a major positive for property markets around Australia.
This follows several years in which foreign and local investors have been the major players, but the tide is now starting to turn in favour of owner-occupiers.
We want to see homebuyers driving the market. Lender restrictions in response to the Australian Prudential Regulation Authority (APRA) crackdown have helped to generate a marked drop-off in loans to investors.
At the same time, state governments surcharges and tighter lending criteria for offshore borrowers are likely to curtail the buying by foreign investors, which were at record levels in 2015.
We are likely to see a pullback in foreign investment into Australian residential real estate, which is a positive thing because it has tripled in the last two years. We think this is a good thing for the stability of the market.
Performance Property research indicates that both Sydney and Melbourne have passed their peaks, in terms of the optimum time for investors to buy. However, Adelaide and Brisbane both have positive indicators for investors, while Perth may present possibilities for counter-cyclical buyers.
Our assessment of the five major city markets is as follows:
Sydney:
It’s clear this market has peaked. The Performance Property affordability index is at 59 percent for Sydney – historically, the market has pulled back whenever the index has risen beyond 47 percent. This has happened three times since 1985 and each time the outcome has been that prices post-boom have stagnated or fallen slightly.
The Sydney market has been under-supplied since 2007, with vacancies at their lowest levels since 2008, and both wages and population growth remain strong.
But the affordability equation is negative and typical gross yields are now 2.2 percent. It’s pretty hard to build a case for strong short-term price growth in Sydney.
Melbourne:
Like Sydney, the affordability index for Melbourne has reached a level where prices stagnate - and typical gross yields are down to 2.5 percent, indicating the market has peaked.
The number of properties listed for sale is low and days on the market are low also, so there’s still strong competition in selected markets and suburbs. Population growth remains strong and we may see some rental growth, which would see yields increase.
However, the Melbourne market is starting to run out of steam. It has the second lowest yields in the nation and is well ahead of its long-term price comparison.
The Melbourne market has some clear distinctions: there’s an oversupply of inner- city apartments causing downward pressure on rental and price growth, but a shortage of quality housing stock in established suburbs placing upward pressure on prices and rents.
Adelaide:
Historically Adelaide capital growth rates have been in line with the major capital cities, which surprises a lot of people. The long-term compound growth rate is 8.4 percent, but in the last five years it’s been under-performing, around 2.4 percent per year. It’s now showing some real value for investors and there are some positive signs emerging within the local economy to underpin growth.
When the affordability index for Adelaide is around 25 percent, it generally means prices will rise. Currently it’s around 27 percent, making this market very affordable and attractive for first-home buyers and ‘next-time buyers’. It’s a major positive for the Adelaide market.
The Adelaide market is oversupplied by 3,500 dwellings but again it’s a tale of two markets: a real under-supply of A Grade family accommodation within close proximity of the CBD, particularly in the school belts which will underpin price growth, but oversupply in other areas.
Brisbane:
The affordability index is about 30 per cent - in the past when it’s been in the 25-30 percent range, there have been price rises in this market. Income growth has been out-pacing price growth in South-East Queensland, which is a positive for the Brisbane market, while recent price growth has been below par.
Brisbane generally has been under-supplied since 2006 but we are starting to see that change, particularly with the looming oversupply in the inner-city apartment markets. Vacancy rates have increased, reflecting the amount of apartment stock being built. But good-quality family homes are in undersupply and in some pockets we are seeing solid price and rental growth.
Perth:
This is a wait-and-see market. The affordability equation is quite positive for Perth, at 27 percent. When it gets down to 25 percent, historically it leads to price increases so there could be some price growth in Perth in the medium term.
A weakening economy and an oversupply is the biggest issue for the Perth market, with vacancies now over 5 percent, rents down 15 percent and prices down 10 percent over the past three years.
The market hasn’t quite bottomed out, net interstate and net overseas migration is slowing, wage growth has slowed and unemployment is on an upward trend, which is contributing to the fragility in the local economy and confidence in the market. Vendors are continuing to discount and that’s likely to continue.
The Perth market is starting to show some signs of value for investors from a counter-cyclical viewpoint, but we are awaiting more evidence.
Heath Bedford is associate director of Performance Property Advisory and can be contacted <a href="https://performanceproperty.com.au/" target="_blank">here</a>.
 
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The tide is turning for owner-occupiers

Australia’s links to China set to broaden: HSBC's Paul Bloxham

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GUEST OBSERVER
The property market always moves reliably in swings, peaks and corrections. Just like the stock market it can be fuelled by skittishness, nerves and sheer hype. When you add emotion to that, you get a dangerous mix.
A number of property experts, from Goldman Sachs, Merrill Lynch and the University of NSW and many others have all come out recently to warn of an oversupply of apartment products and a projected decline in demand. While Melbourne seems to be headed for a certain oversupply, Sydney is also in danger of falling down this path.
In such a fertile time for property investment how could this be? To understand this you need to comprehend the historic reasons that have led us here.
In the aftermath of the GFC confidence in the property market, in any market really, was at an all time low. It was extremely difficult for even some of the strongest property groups in Australia to get their projects up. Major lenders were very cautious and the whole market was flat and carefully ticking along. Land developers were actually trying to encourage people to buy blocks out in Western Sydney – which, only five years on, seems absurd now.
The real trigger that caused a turnaround was the last Federal election. This led to a feverish run in investor sentiment. A realisation dawned that it wasn’t the end of the world and that financially speaking. Australia had actually been in pretty good shape.
Sentiments quickly changed and this caused a sharp spike in prices. As everyone started buying land or apartments there was a massive price escalation. The problem, of course, is that it takes a while to get any stock on the market. Consider the general bureaucratic hurdles in getting a DA approval or land subdivisions.
The low interest rates, a relatively strong economy and the appeal of property (which has now overtaken the share market as a better place to invest cash) all served to create hype and euphoria. Add to this the average assets in Sydney and Melbourne being so much higher than in other parts of Australia, has allowed people to borrow off their equity and make big investments elsewhere. Then, because everyone has seen values increase quickly in a short space of time, this has led to a frenzy of buying and investment.
So a log jam of development submissions and big land projects from a few years ago is now bursting into fruition. The problem is that it’s now outstripping demand. A recent report by BIS Shrapnel has estimated that we’ll see almost  12,000 new apartments built in Sydney in the next three years. There’s still quite a waiting list in land out in western Sydney as this is now all that’s available in Sydney.
The big problem has been buying the wrong kind of product at the wrong time. Specifically the mistakes made by investors has been mostly found in off the off the plan products. Developers are very good at feeding off hype. They will create the most gorgeously glossy brochures loudly broadcasting apartments that you can buy into, starting at only $700,000 for a one-bedroom apartment in Sydney.
But, as we often discover, that can mean you’re buying the worst apartment and the prices in the complex just start escalating from there. Many investors are buying believing the recent gains will continue at the same pace. What they risk is over-paying or buying at the top of the market and seeing their prices go sideways for many years. The climate is similar to 2002/2003 wherein Sydney had already seen an incredible run up in prices, when the market then peaked.
Sydney then had the worst property market for a decade, in terms of growth up to 2012. The last 3 years have been quite dramatic, yet it would be very foolish to pay record prices at the top of the market hoping that in 12-18months you will have made a gain. The opposite could very well be the result.
The other problem has been investors trying to get finance for off-the-plan apartments. Loan approvals only last three months yet the settlement may not occur for 12 – 18 months. In the background, APRA have been putting a squeeze on banks to slow down investor lending, so this too has a consequence.
So by the time the investor is ready for finance, the banks may reduce their initial valuation of the property and demand a higher deposit. For investors working with tight margins this can be disastrous. The investor is then unable to settle because they don’t have enough cash and the banks have valued lower. They default and lose their deposit and their property becomes another form of supply on the market.
 This then creates a perfect storm where values start dropping and the positive sentiment disappears. This has another consequence that with an oversupply of apartments (often negatively geared) there’s too much competition and so rents start dropping, which in turn pushes the investment downwards.
 So from a confident position of market jubilation it’s remarkable and instructive how quickly things can change. The key message is that it doesn’t matter how good the conditions are if you purchase the wrong product and don’t look at the bigger picture. Far too many first time investors make classic mistakes through eagerness and not talking to an expert.
It’s worth remembering that a market driven by hype will always be found out.
 
SAM KHALIL is founder and director of <a href="https://www.dpn.com.au/" target="_blank">Direct Property Network</a>.
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