Tightening lending practices could negatively effect economy: Finder's RBA survey
The RBA survey of experts from Finder.com.au has seen 94 percent say tightening lending practices could negatively effect the economy.
Anticipating a tightening of lending practices following the Royal Commission, 80% of the twenty experts and economists polled in the survey say that it will be increasingly difficult for small businesses to access credit.
Half the experts predict businesses to turn to smaller lenders rather than relying on the big four banks.
Graham Cooke, insights manager at Finder.com.au, said the increased scrutiny from the Royal Commission on the larger institutions means now is the time for smaller lenders to shine.
“Increased oversight creates stricter lending criteria which usually means the smaller players can’t access cash as easily.
“There is a big opportunity here for smaller lenders to gain an edge over the big banks due to the increasingly competitive market.”
All 32 members of the survey predicted a rate hold today, while the confidence in the next cash rate being a hike has waned since September.
Of the 27 expert responses, only 21 (78%) predicted a rise, down from 88% in September.
Six experts (22%) are predicting a rate cut, with four citing a final cash rate of 1%.
Cooke said for the first time, Finder analysis shows one in four economists saying there will be no rise until 2020.
“This will be good news for mortgage holders who will already have taken a financial hit from increasing energy and petrol prices.
“If we don’t see any movement until 2020, this will represent an unprecedented 29 months with a static cash rate.”
Dr Andrew Wilson, chief economist at My Housing Market, said the RBA may be tangled in a web of its own design.
“Drums are beating louder for a cut, but the RBA have somewhat painted themselves into a corner with recent consistent statements that the next move is likely to be up.
“Ordinary inflation data, unions marching in the streets demanding higher wages, stock market crumbling and housing markets tanking. If the next wages index remains benign, then a louder cut chorus will be heard,” Wilson said.
