Finder.com.au

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A record two thirds of Australians say now is a good time to buy property, according to the latest research from comparison website Finder.

Having surveyed over 20,000 respondents in their Consumer Sentiment Tracker nationally, 67 per cent believe now is a good time to buy, an all-time high since Finder began tracking the stat in May 2019.

It was 42 per cent in April. 
Graham Cooke, insights manager at Finder, said that the recent uptick in buyer confidence is a good sign for the economy.  
“This rebound in buyer confidence is indicative of increased economic activity over the past few months, along with an optimistic outlook for 2021," Cooke says. 
“Not only did the Australian government do a better job than most at restricting the spread of COVID-19, but federal and state economic support measures helped prop up the property market.  

<img alt="" height="738" src="https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/pictures/article-images/finder_survey_january.jpg" width="1200">

“Now we're seeing that house values in every capital city bar Melbourne are higher than they were compared the same time last year.  
“This trajectory looks set to continue, with 86% of economists telling Finder* that they expect prices to fully recover nationally this year,” Cooke said. 

Nearly 19 per cent of Australians expect house prices to "significantly increase" in their area. That was just five per cent in September. 
Those who expect property values to "somewhat increase" has jumped to 44% from a low of 18% back in April. 
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Graham Cooke, insights manager at Finder, said that the recent uptick in buyer confidence is a good sign for the economy.

Joel Robinson

A good time to buy property? A record high number of Aussie's think so

<html><body>The cash rate is likely to remain untouched at the next board meeting tomorrow (01/04/2018), but increased rates from the US Federal Reserve may trigger out-of-cycle rate hikes within the Australian lending market, according to <a href="https://finder.us9.list-manage.com/track/click?u=cc5e9bce699fa1d71a67cf499&amp;id=3dd987276e&amp;e=58cd8ffd03" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">finder.com.au</a> research. When asked to predict the cash rate decision for May 2018, 97% (29/30) members of the <a href="https://finder.us9.list-manage.com/track/click?u=cc5e9bce699fa1d71a67cf499&amp;id=c608319a35&amp;e=58cd8ffd03" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">finder.com.au RBA survey</a> forecast no change. Experts and economists believe a mixed economic climate and low inflation are the main catalysts behind this expected monetary policy decision.  Eighty-seven percent of economists who weighed in on the direction of the next rate move believe the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) will push the cash rate upwards. Economists were also asked to indicate exactly when the next cash rate change may happen.  Graham Cooke, Insights Manager at finder.com.au, says the estimated time of a rate movement is creeping forward. “Of the seventeen economists who specified a date for an upward rate movement, fourteen of them (82%) don't expect this to happen until 2019.” “We could be looking at a stagnant cash rate for the rest of the year, at least,” he says. An Australian online bank recently lifted interest rates out-of-cycle for owner-occupiers and investors, citing increased funding costs as a result of rising US interest rates. When asked about this, most panellists (14, 78%) from the survey are expecting other banks to follow suit. “Increased international lending costs may force banks to increase rates for home loan customers out-of-cycle, even if the cash rate doesn’t budge. “The days of super-low interest may be over for borrowers sooner than expected. “Brace yourself for out-of-cycle rate hikes, especially if the US Federal Reserve lifts rates again,” Mr Cooke says. When considering the broader economic outlook, household debt was pinpointed as an area of concern in finder’s Economic Sentiment Tracker. Of the 17 panellists who participated, none had a positive outlook for household debt.  In fact, 53% of respondents reported a negative outlook on household debt. “With household debt at an all-time high, this does not bode well for stressed borrowers,” Mr Cooke says. On the other hand, the highest percentage of positive sentiment was given to employment (60%) followed by wage growth (35%) and housing affordability (21%). “This optimism for future employment has likely been fostered by government support. “Employment was a key part of the 2017-18 budget with a focus on helping disadvantaged members of society such as parents, Indigenous Australians and older people, find employment opportunities. “Initiatives such as ParentsNext and Closing the Gap are two examples of this, and it’s likely employment and job creation will remain a central theme in the 2018-19 budget, due to be released next Tuesday (08/05/2018),” Mr Cooke says. Here’s what our experts had to say: Jordan Eliseo, ABC Bullion (Hold): "The RBA will keep the cash rate steady at 1.50% at their next meeting. Inflation is soft, property prices are easing, and employment growth looks to be slowing down, so we are still of a view that the next move will be a cut, though this will take some time to come through." Shane Oliver, AMP Capital (Hold): "Strong business conditions and employment, rising non-mining investment, strong global growth and the RBA's own forecasts argue against a cut but low inflation and wages growth, risks around the outlook for consumer spending, the slowing Sydney and Melbourne property markets and tightening bank lending standards argue against a hike. So the RBA is likely to remain on hold." Alison Booth, ANU (Hold): " The fundamentals do not yet justify a change." John Hewson, ANU (Hold): "Economy still mixed Household debt constraint" Malcolm Wood, Baillieu Holst (Hold): "Muddle-through economy, inflation at low end of target band" Paul Dales, Capital Economics (Hold): "Economic growth and inflation still aren't strong enough to warrant higher interest rates" Michael Blythe, CBA (Hold): "Inflation is low, the downtrend in unemployment appears to have stalled and the RBA is emphasising ‘patience’." Saul Eslake, Corinna Economic Advisory (Hold): "None of the data released since the last meeting, nor anything else that has occurred since then, will have altered the RBA's assessment of the economic outlook sufficiently to prompt a change in its view that current monetary policy settings are appropriate for the time being." Peter Gilmore, Gateway Bank (Hold): "The RBA knows that pressure from home price rises is beginning to stabilise, however, it's still too soon to move on the cash rate with so many borrowers heavily exposed to rising rates and inflation still low." Mark Brimble, Griffith Uni (Hold): "Insufficient traction or momentum in the economy to consider any tightening for the year" Shane Garrett, Housing Industry Association (Hold): "No real inflationary pressures, strong jobs market." Alex Joiner, IFM Investors (Hold): "The economy is tracking along the RBA's own projections, however, private demand is picking up only gradually and consequently inflationary pressures remain modest. Further strong labour market outcomes have not as yet prompted a discernible acceleration of broad-based wages growth that would underpin an inflationary pulse. The RBA has little cause to shift its policy stance as a result. " Michael Witts, ING Bank (Hold): "Month on month no significant changes to require changes in policy rate." Leanne Pilkington, Laing+Simmons (Hold): "The fundamentals have remained relatively static, meaning the RBA has no impetus to adjust interest rates at this time. There’s a strong argument to leave the cash rate unchanged for the foreseeable future given stagnant house prices, the marked drop in investor lending and other macro challenges to the economy, especially when the banks cannot be trusted not to hike rates independently." Mathew Tiller, LJ Hooker (Hold): "Inflation and wages growth remain too soft to see any movement in the cash rate." John Caelli, ME (Hold): "The RBA will want to see inflation and wages improve and lower unemployment before making any changes." Michael Yardney, Metropole Property Strategists (Hold): "RBA  Governor Philip Lowe has warned the next shift in the official cash rate will be up rather than down, but there is no reason for this to occur until there is a pick up in economic growth and wages. Both of these are likely to be gradual so there is no case for any near-term change in policy." Mark Crosby, Monash University (Hold): "The RBA have signaled that they will keep rates at low levels for a while longer, but that the next move is likely to be upwards." Jacqueline Dearle, Mortgage Choice (Hold): "When the economy can better absorb the impact of an increase and inflation is at 2% or near that target level, Gov Lowe will lift the rate." Dr Andrew Wilson, My Housing Market (Increase): "Latest data remains neutral for the current setting environment with ABS March quarter CPI still clearly underwhelming. Predictable end to APRA market manipulation reflects generally moderated housing market activity so RBA can concentrate on main macro game." Alan Oster, NAB (Hold): "Too early to change. Waiting on data regarding wages and unemployment." Matthew Peter, QIC (Hold): "After the tepid March quarter CPI report and the ongoing slowdown in the housing market, the RBA can park monetary policy into 2019." Noel Whittaker, QUT (Hold): "Won't drop them - property prices flat - why move." Nerida Conisbee, REA Group (Hold): "Although momentum seems to be slowly building in the Australian economy, it still isn't at a point where interest rates will start to increase. We are now running at quite a different speed to large parts of the rest of the world - our time will come but it is taking lot longer than expected." Christine Williams, Smarter Property Investing P/L (Hold): "Even with unemployment reducing and the positiveness within the business sector, and the slowing of the housing market in many states I feel with the Royal Commission at is peak and the findings that have been released the RBA Reserve Bank would be very courageous to increase interest rates at the present." Janu Chan, St.George Bank (Hold): "The RBA has explicitly stated that the next move is likely to be up, but given that spare capacity remains in the labour market, wage growth continues to be subdued and inflation pressure muted a hike is not likely to occur for some time." Brian Parker, Sunsuper (Hold): "Nothing in the recent data to force them to adjust rates one way or the other.  Still enough labour market slack to keep them from raising rates, and they've made it clear they would be very reluctant to ease at this point."</body></html>

j.ballantyne1990-6AQqhLzZaK

Increased international lending costs may force banks to increase rates for home loan customers out-of-cycle

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Experts say now may not be the best time to buy property, according to comparison site Finder.
In this month’s Finder RBA Cash Rate Survey™, while all experts surveyed expect a cash rate hold in July (43/43), just one third of respondents (15, 35%) said that now is a good time to buy property.
Another third (13, 30%) believe that buyers should sit tight and wait for the property market to settle, while the others were unsure (15, 35%).
Clearance rates – which measure the percentage of homes that sell at auction – have fallen in Sydney and Melbourne from 77% in February to 63% and 61% respectively.
Experts predict that clearance rates for both Sydney and Melbourne should sit at around 61% by the end of September.
Graham Cooke, insights manager at Finder, said the housing market is in a very unsettled position, with reduced stock levels and lower clearance rates.
“Increasingly, auctions are topping-out at final bids well below reserve."
“With more job uncertainty on the horizon, it’s difficult to see any improvement in the near future,” Cooke said.
Experts were asked to make predictions about house and unit property values in the eight capital cities.
<img src="https://mcusercontent.com/cc5e9bce699fa1d71a67cf499/images/a8275f42-f4d2-4125-846d-844d591e0e60.jpg" data-imagetype="External"> 
Apartments are due to be harder hit than houses, with 7-8% price drops predicted by the end of September against just under 5% for houses.
<img src="https://mcusercontent.com/cc5e9bce699fa1d71a67cf499/images/5c40e2e8-23df-490e-be51-c4c670720639.jpg" data-imagetype="External">
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Experts warn against buying property with units to be hit hardest: Finder.com.au

<html><body>Despite spending more than $320 billion in response to COVID-19, experts say even more money will be needed from the government, according to the latest Finder survey. Results from the <a href="https://www.finder.com.au/rba-cash-rate" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" data-auth="NotApplicable">Finder RBA Cash Rate Survey™</a> this week, show that experts and economists are unconvinced that the federal government’s stimulus packages will be sufficient to see the country through to the end of the year. Three-quarters (73%, 16) of respondents said they expect another stimulus package will be needed.  A similar number (75%, 15) who weighed in on the Australian shares market, expect it to fall further this year. Graham Cooke, insights manager at Finder, said as hard as it is to believe, 16.4% of the country’s nearly $2 trillion GDP may still not be enough. “If the aim is to build a bridge to the other side of this crisis, there might still be some materials that need to be purchased. “On top of trying to close the gap, this pandemic has created, the near-40% loss in value of Australia’s share market may not be over just yet.  “With the full effects of coronavirus still to be understood, expect the high volatility we have seen in the shares market of late to continue for months.” Cash rate to stay put, but QE on cards All 23 economists and experts surveyed expect the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) to hold the cash rate at 0.25% on Tuesday. “Most economists highlighted that the RBA will treat 0.25% as if it is 0% and have no appetite to cut further.  “This leaves only one effective tool in the RBA’s armoury: quantitative easing,” Cooke said. Quantitative easing (QE) is a process where the central bank creates new cash to decrease, or ease, the cost of borrowing. In Finder’s December 2019 survey, nearly half (46%) of experts predicted it was likely we’d see QE in 2020, well before there was any concern of a global pandemic or a lockdown.  RBA governor Phillip Lowe insisted at the time that the federal bank had “no appetite” for QE. Shane Oliver of AMP Capital said history has shown the folly of going to negative interest rates in other countries. "0.25% has long been identified by the RBA as the lower bound.  “There is little benefit to be gained by going to zero or negative based on the experience of Europe and Japan," Oliver said. Economic Sentiment Tracker  Results from Finder’s Economic Sentiment Tracker, which gauges five key indicators – housing affordability, employment, wage growth, cost of living and household debt – dropped to new lows across most metrics. Cooke said negative sentiment on household debt, wage growth and employment are at 62%, 86% and 100%, respectively. “The sentiment on employment is our first-ever 100% negative response on any economic metric. The COVID-19 pandemic has taken a sledgehammer to the economy, and there is no end in sight,” he said <img src="https://lh5.googleusercontent.com/EkKquNOhes7Tm1rEIH4TFfqG7gKfRn233LzWKxxaIRJXA-ImJe6d6KF7EGwabJCLcn9OQG0GrB6ASTYvrYvnrKH7SF_TFwrgf2jpizHNlXOWHmWnd8FAExFiYndLN7H4_8L6Hjao" width="602" height="387" data-imagetype="External"> Cooke said there was one result that portends good news for homebuyers. “The social gathering restrictions have had a large positive effect on housing affordability. “With estate agents obliged to take viewings by appointment only, and auctions forced online, downward pressure on the housing market is inevitable.  “With both fixed and variable rates at record lows, anyone who has a deposit saved up right now could be in a very powerful position.” The rise in positivity around housing affordability – at its highest level since last June – has pulled the average of positivity across all five metrics higher than last month. “Before the pandemic hit, the worry was that housing prices were continuing to rise even as wages, household debt and cost of living didn’t improve.  “Now, after a global business disruption unrivalled in recent history, the cost of housing might just come back into sight for some Aussies looking to buy,” Cooke said. <img src="https://lh5.googleusercontent.com/QYdBAIcGt_SVYh6Bc-ixcBeeNpaIlPnjBzGbuvmBOPXlXRoqJhZtwY_hbG5PBkmVpSky4kpLBbnJEbAqPxSadD0IAD8NxBxouhp8y2nKXur0bWsqP0MeOfsyrhSGxmARElDpIcEC" width="602" height="399" data-imagetype="External"> <img src="https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/Nn1XHJFGWvNg2nZlmyxjukWBdAKyluQlFllWabQWb53kZ2ib9gOy0ZQEkRVYuil9Rlxr-bc6WCU2Um_hRp722YTcHoEBzec_PXZ61XbJqfH5H9zGd6PM8QWlJBOzRMsCsEkNizs7" width="602" height="404" data-imagetype="External"></body></html>

Experts forecast more economic stimulus and ASX falls: Finder.com.au

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More than four-fifths of experts (29/34, 85%) say the economy won’t fully recover until at least 2022.
However, more than one-third of experts (37%, 14/38) expect Australia to have its first quarter of GDP growth in Q3 2020.
<img src="https://mcusercontent.com/cc5e9bce699fa1d71a67cf499/images/d8d0b433-be64-41ce-8ca2-8f894987f81f.png" data-imagetype="External">
Mark Crosby, applied macroeconomist at Monash University, said Q3 GDP growth is more about how bad the preceding quarters have been.
“If growth in Q3 2020 was measured against any quarter in 2019 it would be negative.
“In other words it's growth but nowhere near a reversion towards trend in Q3, not the end of recession (other than in definition) and not the end of rising unemployment,” Crosby said.
Restaurants and bars won’t return to normal until 2021
Those anxious for a "normal" restaurant experience once restrictions ease, may be waiting longer than they think.
Nearly half (47%, 15/31) of the experts who weighed in on hospitality said restaurants and bars won’t be operating at full capacity and without social distancing restrictions until 2021.
Less than a third (10, 31%) expected to see this happening this year.
Cooke said while restrictions are beginning to be relaxed, Australia still has a way to go until things return to normal.
“While restrictions are beginning to ease, it’s clear we’re still a long way off from booking a big group table at the pub over the long weekend,” Cooke said.
More than one-third of experts (37%, 14/38) expect Australia to have its first quarter of GDP growth in Q3 2020.
Mark Crosby, applied macroeconomist at Monash University, said Q3 GDP growth is more about how bad the preceding quarters have been.
“If growth in Q3 2020 was measured against any quarter in 2019 it would be negative.
“In other words it's growth but nowhere near a reversion towards trend in Q3, not the end of recession (other than in definition) and not the end of rising unemployment,” Crosby said.
Restaurants and bars won’t return to normal until 2021
Those anxious for a "normal" restaurant experience once restrictions ease, may be waiting longer than they think.
Nearly half (47%, 15/31) of the experts who weighed in on hospitality said restaurants and bars won’t be operating at full capacity and without social distancing restrictions until 2021.
Less than a third (10, 31%) expected to see this happening this year.
Cooke said while restrictions are beginning to be relaxed, Australia still has a way to go until things return to normal.
“While restrictions are beginning to ease, it’s clear we’re still a long way off from booking a big group table at the pub over the long weekend,” Cooke said.
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85% of experts say economy won't recover till 2022: Finder.com.au

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One third of Australians spend over five years saving for a deposit, according to new research commissioned by finder.com.au.
The 2,006 person survey also found the majority of people take 3.7 years to save a deposit on average.
Would-be home buyers from Queensland and New South Wales take nearly four years, or 47 months, to save for a home deposit on average, the highest across the states and territories.
Home buyers in Victoria come in at third place, taking an average of 45 months to save for a deposit.
The median apartment price nationally is $545,000 and most borrowers need a minimum 10 percent deposit, the equivalent to $54,500.
<a href="/images/2016/11/02/State%20by%20state%20breakdown.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="/images/2016/11/02/State%20by%20state%20breakdown.jpg" alt="" width="401" height="460">
Men take slightly longer than women to save for a deposit, according to finder.com.au money expert Bessie Hassan.
On average, women take 43 months (3.6 years) to save for a deposit, while men take 45 months (3.8 years).
Over 11% of Aussies have saved for 10 years or more to have enough funds to complete a deposit.
Prospective home buyers in South Australia take the least time to save for a home deposit, with almost three quarters (72.27%) taking under five years.
“With interest rates at a historic low of 1.5%, first home buyers are madly saving to pursue the Australian dream and break into the property market," Bessie said.
“Although saving for a deposit can require financial discipline and personal sacrifices, it’s not unattainable.
“Set yourself a savings goal and come up with actionable ways to achieve your goal.
"For example, you can boost your savings by cutting back on unnecessary costs such as entertainment or travel expenses, or by consolidating any existing personal debt that you have,” Hassan said.
<a href="/images/2016/11/02/Generation%20breakdown.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="/images/2016/11/02/Generation%20breakdown.jpg" alt="" width="404" height="459">
“For a full documentation loan, however, you should aim to save at least 20% of the purchase price so you don’t have to pay lenders mortgage insurance,” she says.
There are a range of other costs to account for when it comes to buying real estate including legal fees, inspection costs, stamp duty, home loan application or establishment fees, and insurance.
“It’s definitely not a short-term goal for most.
"You have to trim expenses and make sacrifices for many years.
“The next generation of home buyers should be realistic about the length of time it takes to save a deposit as well as the financial commitment required to hold and maintain a property.
“As well as a deposit and upfront costs of purchasing a property, there are also several ongoing charges including periodic mortgage repayments, repairs and maintenance, cleaning, and taxes,” she says.
 
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One in three first home buyers stuck saving for a deposit for over five years

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The cash rate may have been held for seven consecutive months, but this hasn’t prevented lenders from lifting mortgage rates independently of the Reserve Bank.
There have been 11 lenders including two of the big four banks announcing rate hikes this month, according to finder.com.au, Australia’s most visited comparison website.
A new analysis by finder.com.au reveals 11 lenders have declared rate rises for both variable and fixed home loans in March 2017.
Of the big four banks, ANZ, NAB and Westpac have announced rate changes this year.
While ANZ and NAB announced changes earlier this year, Westpac soon followed suit announcing rate changes just this month.
In March alone, NAB announced further changes with increases to its interest rates from 0.07 percent - 0.25 percent for variable rate home loans, while Westpac also raised its variable rates from 0.03 percent - 0.28 percent.
Despite increasing its variable rate, NAB implemented a new incentive for first home buyers by introducing its lowest home loan fixed rate of 2 years at 3.69 percent per annum.
Westpac is also providing a grace period until the 17th June by waiving the switching fee for interest-only home loans changing to principal and interest repayments. 
The average rate rise for owner-occupier loans in March 2017 across the big four that have adjusted rates (including NAB and Westpac) is 0.05 percent.
Taking this into account, a borrower with an average home loan of $357,200 with an average variable rate of 4.75 percent would need to pay an extra $11 per month if rates rose to 4.80 percent.
This amounts to $3,881 over 30 years.
Graham Cooke, Insights Manager at finder.com.au, says whether it’s to increase flexibility or boost profit margins, banks are under fire to manage stakeholder expectations while also dealing with the risk of an overheated property market.
For investor loans, more stringent regulations imposed by the Australian Prudential Regulation Authority (APRA) to curb investor lending may be prompting banks to up interest rates.
"Given recent rate increases, both owner occupiers and investors need to prepare for higher loan costs.
"It’s sensible to factor in 2-3 percent on top of your current mortgage repayments so you can cope with unexpected rate rises,” he says.
Variable home loan rate changes for March 2017
<table border="1" cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0"><tbody>
<tr>
<td valign="top" width="67">
Lender
</td>
<td valign="top" width="81">
Change
</td>
<td valign="top" width="166">
Loans affected
 
</td>
<td valign="top" width="78">
Date effective
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="56">
NAB
</td>
<td width="70">
Up 0.07% - 0.25%
</td>
<td width="156">
Variable Rate Home Loans (owner occupier + investor)
</td>
<td width="68">
24 Mar
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="56">
Westpac
</td>
<td width="70">
Up 0.03% - 0.28%
</td>
<td width="156">
Variable Rate Home Loans (owner occupier + investor and principal &amp; interest + interest only)
</td>
<td width="68">
24 Mar
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="56">
Bankwest
</td>
<td width="70">
Up 0.15%
</td>
<td width="156">
Complete Home Loan Package - Variable (investor), Premium Select Home Loan - Variable (investor) Equaliser Home Loan - Variable (investor)
</td>
<td width="68">
15 Mar
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="56">
Beyond Bank
</td>
<td width="70">
Up 0.10%
</td>
<td width="156">
Low Rate Special Home Loan - Variable (owner occupier)
</td>
<td width="68">
7 Mar
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="56">
Heritage Bank
</td>
<td width="70">
Up 0.10% - 0.11%
</td>
<td width="156">
Advantage Package Home Loan - Variable (owner occupier)
</td>
<td width="68">
14 Mar
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="56">
Illawarra Credit Union
</td>
<td width="70">
Up 0.05% - 0.15%
</td>
<td width="156">
Variable Lite &amp; Variable Home Loans (owner occupier)
</td>
<td width="68">
1 Mar
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="56">
IMB
</td>
<td width="70">
Up 0.05%
</td>
<td width="156">
Accelerator Home Loan - Variable (owner occupier)
</td>
<td width="68">
13 Mar
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="56">
Macquarie Bank
</td>
<td width="70">
Up to 0.05%
</td>
<td width="156">
Basic Home Loan - Variable LVR &lt;=80%, LVR &lt;=90% (owner occupier + investor), Offset Package Home Loan - Variable LVR &lt;=80%, LVR &lt;=90% (owner occupier + investor)
</td>
<td width="68">
6 Mar
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="56">
Macquarie Bank
</td>
<td width="70">
Down 0.05 - 0.10%
</td>
<td width="156">
Basic Home Loan - Variable LVR &lt;=90% (owner occupier), Offset Package Home Loan - Variable LVR &lt;=90% (owner occupier)
</td>
<td width="68">
6 Mar
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="56">
MOVE
</td>
<td width="70">
Up 0.30%
</td>
<td width="156">
Wealth Builder - Variable (investor), Flexi Home Credit - Variable
</td>
<td width="68">
1 Mar
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="56">
People's Choice Credit Union
</td>
<td width="70">
Up 0.19%
</td>
<td width="156">
Basic Home Loan - Variable (owner occupier)
</td>
<td width="68">
15 Mar
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="56">
Western City
</td>
<td width="70">
Up 0.05% - 0.15%
</td>
<td width="156">
Variable Lite &amp; Variable Home Loans (owner occupier)
</td>
<td width="68">
1 Mar
</td>
</tr>
</tbody></table>
 
Fixed home loan rate changes for March 2017
<table style="width: 392px; height: 476px;" border="1" cellspacing="0" cellpadding="0"><tbody>
<tr>
<td valign="top" width="67">
Lender
</td>
<td valign="top" width="81">
Change
</td>
<td valign="top" width="166">
Loans affected
 
</td>
<td valign="top" width="79">
Date effective
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="56">
Bankwest
</td>
<td width="70">
Up 0.15%
</td>
<td width="156">
Complete Home Loan Package - 2, 3, 4, 5 Years Fixed (investor), Fixed Rate Home Loan - 2, 3, 4, 5 Years Fixed (investor)
</td>
<td width="68">
15 Mar
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="56">
Beyond Bank
</td>
<td width="70">
Up 0.05% - 0.10%
</td>
<td width="156">
Fixed Rate Home Loan - 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 Years Fixed (owner occupier), Total Home Loan Package - 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 Years Fixed (owner occupier)
</td>
<td width="68">
7 Mar
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="56">
Heritage Bank
</td>
<td width="70">
Up 0.10%
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Fixed Rate Home Loan - 1,2,3 (owner occupier + investor), Advantage Package Fixed Rate Home Loan - 1,2,3 (owner occupier + investor)
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9 Mar
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IMB
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Up 0.10%
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Platinum Package - 2 &amp; 3 Years Fixed rate (owner occupier + investor), Fixed Rate Home Loan - 2 &amp; 3 Years Fixed Rate (owner occupier + investor)
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6 Mar
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Lockit Home Loan - 1 Year Fixed rate
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1 Mar
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People's Choice Credit Union
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Up 0.05%
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Home Loan Package - 3 Years Fixed (owner occupier)
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15 Mar
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Out-of-cycle rate hikes shake up the Australian home loan market

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<div>Most market onlookers believe the cash rate will remain static at the April board meeting, but just two 25-basis-point rate rises is all it could take before some ‘risky’ mortgage holders lose grip of their repayments, according to new finder.com.au research.</div>
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Thirty one of the 32 (97%) panellists from the finder.com.au RBA survey are expecting the rate to remain on hold, with one respondent (Mark Crosby from Monash University) forecasting a rise to 1.75%. Eighty-three percent (24 of 29) of experts and economists believe the next rate move will be an increase, while the remainder of the panel believe the Reserve Bank will stay in the cutting cycle. Finder’s new Economic Sentiment Tracker, which was introduced to the survey last month, has found household debt to be the number one area of concern for the majority (55%) of panellists. Graham Cooke, insights manager at finder.com.au, says household debt is still a struggle for many Australians.
“Mortgage repayments are king of household debt, but other costs like personal loans and credit card repayments also comprise a large chunk of household debt — and they roll in like clockwork.
“Running costs like electricity and gas can also quickly deplete household savings,” he says.
Employment is viewed with optimism among the experts and economists (65%) while the panellists mostly felt neutral (50%) or negative (15%) about the nation’s wage growth.
Thirty percent of panellists expressed negative sentiment toward cost of living.
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UBS Wealth Management Australia recently released a report saying 18% of the home loan market included fraudulent details on their applications. With this in mind, panelists were asked how many 25-basis-point rate increases it would take before mortgage holders started defaulting.
In response to this, 56% of experts believe up to two rate increases could cause the “risky” end of the market to default on their repayments.
Thirty-nine percent think two cash rate increases would be enough to throw homeowners into default, while a further 17% said just one rate increase would put fraudulent borrowers in a precarious position.
According to recent data, Sydney’s auction clearance rates (ACR) have fallen from 73.7% in August 2017 to 63.8% on March 2018, hitting a low of 57.5% in February 2018.
Panellists were asked if clearance rates will fall below 50% in 2018. Most respondents (13 of the 20 who opted in to this question) said they don’t expect to see Sydney ACRs fall below 50%.
“We’ve seen some correction in the Sydney market, with some experts indicating the market may continue to slow and we may see an average clearance rate around the 55% mark,” Mr Cooke says.
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Here’s what the experts had to say: 
Jordan Eliseo, ABC Bullion (Hold):"The RBA will continue with their current monetary policy settings, though recent data will have dented their confidence regarding the outlook for employment, inflation and overall economic growth. We remain of the view that their next move will be a cut to the cash rate, particularly if house price weakness continues, but this will take time to play out."
Tim Nelson, AGL Energy (Hold):"No material changes to outlook since March. "
Shane Oliver, AMP Capital (Hold):"High business confidence, strong jobs growth and the RBA's own growth and inflation forecasts argue against a rate cut, but risks around consumer spending, weak wages growth and inflation, the slowing Sydney and Melbourne property markets and the still too high $A argue against a rate hike."
Alison Booth, ANU (Hold): "The fundamentals don’t want any change."
John Hewson, ANU (Hold):"[The RBA] simply can't move given level of household debt. The economy is still mixed."
Malcolm Wood, Baillieu Holst (Hold):"Inflation below target range, Moderate growth, global volatility."
Paul Dales, Capital Economics (Hold):"There are still no real signs that inflation is heading back up to the middle of the 2-3% target range, so interest rates need to stay low to give it a bit of a boost."
Saul Eslake, Corinna Economic Advisory (Hold):"Nothing has materially changed since the RBA last stated that current monetary policy settings were (in its opinion) appropriate. There’s been no new data on price or wage inflation; and the most recent labour force data suggests that the margin of spare capacity in the labour market remains unchanged, despite ongoing strong employment growth (because most of the new jobs are going to new entrants to the labour force). And the RBA has repeatedly made it clear that it feels under no pressure to follow other central banks in hiking rates."
Peter Gilmore, Gateway Bank (Hold): "The RBA is still concerned about low wages growth and household debt levels."
Mark Brimble, Griffith University (Hold): "Volatility and uncertainty are key factors in the global context and the Australian economy continues to show lackluster performance."
Shane Garrett, Housing Industry Association (Hold):"The current economic environment of strong job creation and fairly weak price pressures does not merit a change in monetary policy from the RBA at this time."
Alex Joiner , IFM Investors (Hold):"There is no material change in the outlook. The labour market continues to perform well however economic activity nor consumer price/wages inflation justifies a near term adjustment of policy."
Michael Witts, ING (Hold):"The RBA will keep rates unchanged as it is looking for the economy to gather further momentum."
Leanne Pilkington, Laing+Simmons (Hold):“The residential housing market, and the economy generally, requires the steady interest rate environment to continue. Employment growth has been encouraging but tempered by flattened wage growth, while house price growth is also subdued and clearance rates are solid if unspectacular. It amounts to a prudent case of the RBA leaving rates as is."
Nicholas Gruen, Lateral Economics (Hold): "The economy has spare capacity and the bank doesn't want to cut – even though for a long time it should have."
Mathew Tiller, LJ Hooker (Hold):"The global economy has continued to show signs of improvement, despite ongoing geopolitical uncertainty. In Australia, the economy remains on a steady footing with business confidence and employment improving. However, this is yet to flow through the increased wages or consumer prices. Housing markets across the country continue to remain active with listings numbers increasing and auction clearance rates sitting just below the long-term average. More properties on the market for sale has provided more choice for buyers and when combined with the moderation of investor demand has led to a slowdown in price growth. In weighing up these variables, it is likely that the RBA will keep the cash rate at the record low of 1.50% over the short-term."
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Marie Mortimer, loans.com.au (Hold):"We are speaking to a lot of borrowers who are refinancing with loans.com.au for a cheaper rate than traditional lenders because they are conscious of their household budget. The RBA are also aware of the impact on a rate rise to household budgets and we believe that rates will remain on hold in the short term due to the relatively low inflation rate and weak economic sentiment." 
Stephen Koukoulas, Market Economics (Hold): "The RBA is unable to get away from its obsession with non-existant financial instability. It should be cutting rates" 
John Caelli, ME (Hold): "The RBA has flagged they are in no hurry in increasing rates. They want to see inflation increase, a pick-up in wages and lower unemployment before they consider putting up rates again." 
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Michael Yardney, Metropole (Hold):"Despite an increasing divergence with overseas rates, the RBA will keep official rates at their historic low of 1.5% because of spare capacity in our employment markets. While the Australian economy added 17,500 jobs in February, strong population growth and increased labour-force participation meant the official unemployment rate crept up a notch from 5.5% to 5.6%."
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Mark Crosby, Monash University (Increase):"Despite ‘The Donald’s’ attempts to trash the world economy, the case for the RBA raising is now very strong." 
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Christopher Schade, MyState (Hold): "With wages growth subdued and inflation well contained; there is no need for the RBA to rush to raise rates. We would not be surprised to see the RBA on hold for much, if not all of CY 2018." 
Alan Oster, nab (Hold): "No increase until we get better wages and more consumer activity." Jonathan Chancellor, Property Observer (Hold): "More time and confidence is needed before any rate rise."
Matthew Peter, QIC (Hold): "No inflation to speak of, tepid growth, slowing housing market and an unsettled global outlook give the RBA more than enough reasons to remain on hold." 
Noel Whittaker, QUT (Hold):"Housing not rising - markets wobbly - no reason to move." Nerida Conisbee, REA Group (Hold): "Economy still isn't strong enough." 
Christine Williams, Smarter Property Investing (Hold):"Unemployment figures have reduced slightly across most states, however individual debt has increased per capita. Banks are continuing to tighten their policy to be in line with responsible lending with owner occupier and investment property loans, thus reducing their overall risk in the property segment." 
Besa Deda, St George Bank (Hold):“The inflation outlook does not warrant a near term rate increase from the RBA.” 
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Brian Parker, Sunsuper (Hold): "Labour market and inflation developments aren't robust enough to warrant any near term tightening, and the RBA is clearly unwilling to ease to boost growth. On hold for a long time!" 
Clement Tisdell, UQ-School of Economics (Hold):"No reason for a change." 
Bill Evans, Westpac (Hold):"Unlike the “immediate” Trump fiscal stimulus the AustralianGovernment is adopting a more structured, cautious approach."
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No RBA change says Finder.com.au experts

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Each of Finder.com.au's 33 experts predicted a cash rate hold at today's 2.30 RBA announcement.
Here’s what some of them had to say:
Jordan Eliseo, ABC Bullion (Hold): ​"There remains no compelling reason for the RBA to move the dial when it comes to interest rates. Employment data, business conditions and overall growth figures are solid, though there seems no obvious catalyst to turn around record low wage growth, whilst a slowing property market will inevitably weigh on confidence. We remain of the view that the next move in rates will be a reduction."
Tim Nelson, AGL Energy (Hold): ​"RBA has stated that the process of inflation returning to target will be gradual."
Shane Oliver, AMP Capital (Hold):​ "High levels of business confidence, strong jobs growth and the RBA’s forecasts for stronger growth and inflation point to eventual rate hikes. But against this, continuing very weak wages growth, sub-target inflation, the $A remaining too high and uncertainty around the outlook for consumer spending all argue for rates to remain on hold or even fall. So on balance it makes sense to continue to leave interest rates on hold."
Alison L Booth, ANU (Hold):​ "The fundamentals have remained fairly steady."
Malcolm Wood, Baillieu Holst (Hold):​ "Inflation below target band; mixed indicators."
Richard Robinson, BIS Oxford Economics (Hold):​ "Price and wages inflation still low, so no pressures yet. RBA has a large buffer between rising US rates and local rates, so there is no hurry to raise rates. Although A$ is still a bit high for RBA's comfort, the Bank is still reluctant to cut rates, because it fears it would re-ignite property prices."
Paul Dales, Capital Economics (Hold): ​"The RBA has said that there is not a strong case for a near-term adjustment in interest rates (i.e. a hike) as inflation is going to rise to the 2-3% target only slowly."
Michael Blythe, CBA (Hold): ​"RBA is emphasising patience and gradualism with respect to rates."
Saul Eslake, Corinna Economic Advisory (Hold): ​"Nothing has happened since the February meeting (and the publication of the February SoMP) to prompt the RBA to change its evaluation of the appropriateness of current monetary policy settings."
Peter Gilmore, Gateway Bank (Hold): ​"Still insufficient wages and price growth to force the RBA's hand."
Scott Morgan, Greater Bank (Hold):​ "Economic data does not yet support a shift"
Shane Garrett, Housing Industry Association (Hold): ​"Inflation and economic growth do not require intervention." Alex Joiner, IFM Investors (Hold): ​"There is no economic reason to shift rates and the outlook has not been altered by any deviation in the recent solid data flow."
Andrew Wilson, Independent economist (Hold):​ "We are experiencing a benign environment for interest rate movements either up or down. After APRA regulations restricting the availability of loans to investors, we actually saw rates for owner occupier loans fall – the difference between owner occupier and investor loans is now smaller than ever. APRA are starting to make noises that they are satisfied that the market has stabilised. We’re likely to see a flat year for interest rates."
Michael Witts, ING (Hold): ​"The RBA is happy for the current momentum in the economy to continue to run. Inflation remains under control and wages inflation is yet to emerge." Leanne Pilkington, Laing+Simmons (Hold):​ "The current interest rate remains appropriate and the fact that the banks themselves are applying tighter lending criteria to their customers demonstrates the potential impact a rate rise too soon may have. It’s a precarious position requiring a steady low environment in the near term."
Nicholas Gruen, Lateral Economics (Hold): ​"It has flagged that it's not in a hurry to raise rates." Mathew Tiller, LJ Hooker (Hold):​ "No discernible change from last month. Employment continue to remain strong, however, wage growth and inflation remain soft. Property markets have seen prices begin to soften, thanks to an increase in listings and a moderation in investor demand." John Caelli, ME (Hold): ​"The RBA has already indicated it will hold the cash rate until key economic indicators improve."
Michael Yardney, Metropole Property Strategists (Hold): ​"While overseas interest rates are likely to rise in the next few months, the RBA Governor has made it clear that Australian rates don't need to be in lock step with overseas rates. There is currently no reason to change rates to either stimulate or slow down our economy."
Mark Crosby, Monash University (Hold):​ "At this point the RBA would be close to raising rates, but probably still waiting for overseas rises to occur and monitoring of financial markets after this happens."
Christopher Schade, MyState Bank (Hold): ​"While the economic outlook has if anything improved in recent times, the economy is far from over-heating, inflation remains well contained, and the Australian dollar arguably remains a tad high. The Reserve Bank will leave rates at their current highly accommodative level for at least the next few months to allow the economy to continue to gather momentum. A rate hike will likely become a more serious consideration later in the year."
Alan Oster, NAB (Hold):​ "Wages data is too weak."
Jonathan Chancellor, Property Observer (Hold): ​"The central bank will be cautiously content with how things are faring, with no need to change the cash rate."
Noel Whittaker, QUT (Hold): ​"Property prices falling – our dollar weakening – no reason to move."
Nathan McMullen, RAMS (Hold): ​"Inflation is within tolerance." Nerida Conisbee, REA Group (Hold): ​"Economy still not strong enough to start increasing."
Janu Chan, St.George Bank (Hold):​ "The next move is more than likely to be higher, and the RBA sees progress towards employment and inflation goals. However, spare capacity still exists within the domestic economy and will therefore hold off from raising interest rates for some time.”
Clement Tisdell, UQ-School of Economics (Hold):​ "Wage growth slow. Exchange rate needs to be lowered somewhat."
Other participants:​ Bill Evans - Westpac (Hold), Stephen Koukoulas - Market Economics (Hold), Paul Bloxham - HSBC Bank Australia Limited (Hold), John Hewson -ANU (Hold).
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RBA on hold: March's unanimous forecast among tipsters

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Over 40 percent of Finder.com.au experts and economists forecasted a five to six percent price fall in Sydney by the end of 2018
Some of the panellists of the June RBA cash rate survey suggested there could be even bigger falls in the harbour city. 
14 percent predicted falls over six percent.
Only seven percent forecasted rising property prices in Sydney.
23 percent of panellists suggested there will be falls of over six percent in Brisbane over the year.
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Melbourne was forecast for a less extreme price drop with 50% of experts and economists expecting values to dip between ​3% and 4%​. 
Finder.com.au insights manager Graham Cooke says homebuyers may want to consider purchasing in a cooled market. 
“For those mulling over buying their first property, this year could be a good time to snap up a bargain if prices do take a tumble. 
“With some heat removed from the market, cheaper dwelling prices could be a first home buyer’s ticket into the property market. 
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“A cheaper price tag means they’ll have a smaller deposit, meaning they can jump onto the property ladder sooner,” he says. 
The analysis shows Brisbane, Perth and Darwin housing prices are also tipped to fall this year, with no experts or economists indicating a rise in Darwin. 
Brisbane housing price are most likely to plummet with 23% of respondents forecasting a fall of over 6%, which is the greatest predicted fall among the capital cities. 
“This is also good news for those looking to buy in Brisbane, but things won’t be as peachy for sellers in the Sunshine State,” Mr Cooke says. 
On the other hand, Adelaide and Hobart were identified as growth markets among the panel with 55% of respondents estimating 1-2% growth in Adelaide, while a combined 72% are forecasting Hobart prices to lift by 1-2% or 3-4%. 
“The quieter cities of Adelaide and Hobart could be hot spots for investors wanting to unlock capital growth, or for homebuyers looking to put their property on the market,” he says.
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Here’s what the Finder.com.au experts had to say: 
Jordan Eliseo, ABC Bullion: ​"The RBA will keep rates steady at their upcoming meeting, though we remain convinced the next move will be an interest rate cut. Local economic data remains soft at best, whilst fears over house price declines, and a more subdued environment for private sector credit growth continue to build, fuelled by some of the more troubling revelations from the Banking Royal Commission. The positive narrative around accelerating global growth is also starting to fade, with political uncertainty in Italy (and by extension Europe) unlikely to help." 
Tim Nelson, AGL Energy:​ "Previous meeting indicated that there wasn't a strong case for near-term adjustment." 
Shane Oliver, AMP Capital: ​"Basically nothing has changed. Signs of stronger investment, booming infrastructure spending, strong export volumes and the RBA’s own forecasts argue against a cut but uncertainty around consumer spending, the slowing Sydney and Melbourne property markets, tightening bank lending standards and the slowing Sydney and Melbourne property markets argue against a hike. So no case to move!" 
Alison Booth, ANU: ​"Fundamentals haven’t yet changed sufficiently to warrant altering the interest-rate." 
John Hewson, ANU: ​"No clear evidence to support a tightening especially given household debt." 
Jonathan Chancellor, Property Observer:​ "The RBA won't be wanting to use its lever quite yet, as the economy is in a challenging state of transition. " 
Malcolm Wood, Baillieu Holst:​ "Sluggish domestic economic data and inflation at the low end of the target range." 
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Paul Dales, Capital Economics:​ "Economic conditions are not strong enough to warrant higher rates and the RBA is becoming concerned that the Banking Royal Commission will result in some households and businesses finding it harder to get credit. The RBA won't want to raise the price of credit at the same time." 
Saul Eslake, Corinna Economic Advisory: ​"Data releases since the last Board meeting are unlikely to have changed the Board's belief that it will be some time before spare capacity in the labour market has declined sufficiently, and economic growth picked up sufficiently, to warrant taking the first step back towards more 'normal' monetary policy settings." 
Peter Gilmore, Gateway Bank Ltd: ​"Some of the fundamentals are beginning to show signs of lining up, but it's still too soon to move." 
Mark Brimble, Griffith Uni: ​"Nothing has sufficiently changed." Peter Haller, Heritage Bank:​ "Market conditions do not warrant a change. The RBA is 
comfortably on hold for the foreseeable future." 
Shane Garrett, Housing Industry Association: ​"The economy is gathering pace in some areas without generating an increase in inflation - this means that no change in the RBA's cash rate is warranted for the moment." 
Alex Joiner, IFM Investors: ​"There's been no shift in the economic outlook - this is particularly true in the labour market where spare capacity remains and therefore no meaningful acceleration of wages growth should be expected. In this way population growth remaining strong is a double-edged sword for the RBA in so far as it supports economic growth but keeps the unemployment rate from declining. Indeed the RBA does not expect full employment to be achieved over its forecast horizon." 
Michael Witts, ING:​ "The RBA has indicated that rates will remain on hold for an extended period." 
Leanne Pilkington, Laing+Simmons:​ "The housing market, from a number of key indicator perspectives, has peaked. Prices in select pockets are easing, clearance rates have dropped, and residential building approvals for April showed a 5% decline, which is more pronounced than most expected. So we’re seeing the market correct at the moment, but in a sustainable, soft-landing way. Raising interest rates prematurely could jeopardise this soft landing, so we expect the RBA to continue the hold pattern." 
Mathew Tiller, LJ Hooker:​ "There has been no material change in indicators since last month. Property price growth continues to moderate which will be welcome by the RBA. Investor demand has eased with owner occupiers and first home buyers coming back into the market to fill the gap." 
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Stephen Koukoulas, Market Economics:​ "It remains the case that the RBA is downplaying the news of falling house prices, rising unemployment rate, weak wages and inflation. It should cut rates but it won't." 
John Caelli, ME: ​"The RBA will want to see inflation and wages improve and lower unemployment before making any changes." 
Michael Yardney, Metropole: ​"There's no reason to change rates. Jobs growth rebounded strongly last month but not enough to stop the jobless rate rising to a 9 month high of 5.6% keeping wages pressure low and rates won't rise until wages start growing." 
Mark Crosby, Monash University: ​"The RBA is likely to remain on hold for the next few months unless wages growth and inflation strengthen. Moderation in asset price growth also lessens the probability of a rate rise." 
Jacqueline Dearle, Mortgage Choice: ​"The RBA's decision to hold would be consistent with sustainable growth in the economy, home loan demand remaining stable, and achieving the inflation target over time." 
Dr Andrew Wilson, My Housing Market: ​"Most recent relevant economic data continues to support steady rates and the Banks conservative stance on monetary policy. Rising spectre of a tariff enhanced-trade war however may require action to lower the AUD which would mean lower official rates.” 
Alan Oster, NAB: ​"Watching for signs of better wages and labour market outcomes. Inflation still low." 
Matthew Peter, QIC:​ "The rosy global economic backdrop is coming under pressure. Slowing growth momentum, Italian political chaos, uncertainty over Korea, and emerging-market instability in the face of rising interest rates and USD are eroding confidence in the global economy. Domestically, we have the Banking Royal Commission casting a shadow over credit growth. In the face of rising uncertainties, RBA will have not have to think twice before remaining on hold." 
Noel Whittaker, QUT: ​"There is no compelling reason to increase them – and they certainly won't be reducing them." 
Nerida Conisbee, REA Group:​ "The economy still isn't growing fast enough for the RBA to start moving rates upwards to slow it down." 
Christine Williams, Smarter Property Investing: ​"Employment has stabilized. APRA's recommendations have been accepted and rolled out to all major funders." 
Janu Chan, St.George Bank:​ "Low inflation, ongoing spare capacity, downside risks to housing and the household sector suggests RBA will remain on hold for some time.” 
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Clement Tisdell, UQ-School of Economics:​ "The statements of the bank." 
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