Rba Rate Decision

The RBA have held interest rates at a record low 0.1 per cent at the June meeting.

RBA Governor Philip Lowe noted in his meeting statement the increased borrowing by investors in the housing market.

&quot;Housing markets have strengthened further, with prices rising in all major markets. Housing credit growth has picked up, with strong demand from owner-occupiers, especially first-home buyers,&quot; Dr Lowe said.

&quot;There has also been increased borrowing by investors.

&quot;Given the environment of rising housing prices and low interest rates, the Bank will be monitoring trends in housing borrowing carefully and it is important that lending standards are maintained.

Finder&#39;s RBA Cash Rate Survey found that over three quarters of experts surveyed believe the cash rate won&#39;t rise until Q4 2022 or later.

Around 60 per cent of experts expect the cash rate to increase in 2023 or later.&nbsp; Just under 10 per cent believe the cash rate could increase before the end of 2021.

AMP Capital chief economist Shane Oliver said that while the economic recovery is faster than expected, the RBA&rsquo;s conditions for a rate hike are still far from being met.

&quot;The jobs market is still a long way from full employment, wages growth at 1.5% is way below the 3% plus pace necessary to sustain two to three per cent&nbsp;inflation and in any case inflation is still well below its target zone. So a rate hike remains some time off.&quot;

Despite market sentiment, and the RBA&#39;s steadfast view rates won&#39;t move until 2024, banks across Australia have been hiking their four-year fixed home loan rates.

According to Ratecity, at the start of the year&nbsp;were 32 four-year fixed rates under two&nbsp;per cent, including from three of the big four banks. Following BankVic&#39;s recent hike, there now isn&#39;t a single lender offering under two per cent for a four year fixed.

RateCity.com.au research director, Sally Tindall, said the pack was tightening as some lenders took some record low rates off the table, while others trimmed rates to become more competitive.

&ldquo;A number of record low rates have been relegated to the history books over the last two months, as lenders took some of the lowest rates off the table,&rdquo; Tindall&nbsp;said.

&ldquo;There are now just two rates that are still at record lows &ndash; Reduce Home Loan&rsquo;s variable rate at 1.77 per cent and BCU&rsquo;s 1-year fixed rate at 1.67 per cent. All the other lowest rates have been hiked.

&ldquo;We expect more fixed rates will rise after the RBA&rsquo;s term funding facility wraps up at the end of this month and we edge closer to the next cash rate hike.&quot;

Finder's RBA Cash Rate Survey found that over three quarters of experts surveyed believe the cash rate won't rise until Q4 2022 or later

Joel Robinson

RBA holds rates at June meeting

<html><body>
As expected the Board of the Reserve Bank maintained its current policy settings, including the targets of 10 basis points for the cash rate and the yield on the 3 year Australian Government bond, as well as the parameters of the Term Funding Facility and the government bond purchase program.

Since the last Board meeting on March 2 the most important economic developments have been the announcement of the surprise fall in the unemployment rate from 6.4% in January to 5.8% in February and reports of extraordinary strength in the national housing market.

The unemployment report has prompted only a minor change in the Governor’s rhetoric from “the economy is still operating with considerable spare capacity and the unemployment rate remains higher than it has been for some years” (March) to “the economy is operating with considerable spare capacity and unemployment is still too high.” (April).

[smartcode_project:default project_id=26574]

The key sentiments from March are repeated, “it will take some time to reduce this spare capacity and for the labour market to be tight enough to generate wage increases that are consistent with achieving the inflation target” and “wage and price pressures are subdued and are expected to remain so for some years.”

Rising house prices are recognised, “prices rising in most markets.” But the same approach we saw in March is adopted where lending standards are emphasised, “the Bank will be monitoring trends in housing borrowing carefully and it is important that lending standards are maintained.”

Importantly the Governor points out that “investor credit growth remains subdued.”

[smartcode_project:default project_id=29914]

It is interesting that he did not comment, at this stage, on the recent trend for new lending for housing. In February new lending for investors lifted by 4.5% in the month compared to -0.8% for “upgraders” and -4% for First Home Buyers.

In fact the six month growth rate for new investor finance approvals (31%) is now above the upgraders’ rate (24%) and First Home Buyers (30%). No doubt the Board will be watching these trends very closely.

The commitment to the 3 year bond rate target at 0.1% was confirmed and it was noted that “The Board remains committed to the 3 year government bond yield target of 10 basis points” while noting that “Later in the year it will consider whether to retain the April 2024 bond as the target bond or to shift to the next maturity.” That would be the November 2024 bond – a likely decision which would be supported by the consistent observation that “the Board does not expect these conditions (necessary to increase the cash rate) to be met until 2024 at the earliest.”

Insisting that it will be 2024 “at the earliest” is not consistent with restricting the target bond to an April 2024 maturity.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=26574]

As with March the Governor remains supportive of the bond purchase program, “the Bank is prepared to undertake further bond purchases if doing so would assist with progress towards the goals of full employment and inflation.” Note that in the March Statement the Governor indicated his preparedness to extend the policy “if necessary” – the April sentiment seems even more supportive of the bond buying approach.

Since the March Board meeting the AUD has fallen by around US 1.5c but there is no indication of “job done” with respect to the bond buying program which is directly aimed at lowering the AUD (recall that Assistant Governor, Financial Markets, Chris Kent recently estimated that the QE program had lowered the AUD by up to 5%).

Conclusion

Westpac recently confirmed its views that the Bank will extend the new $100 billion bond purchasing program (which is set to begin next week) with a further $100 billion when the new program concludes in the week ending August 27.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=29921]

However, we expect that the new program which we expect to begin in the following week will be at a slightly slower pace ($4 billion in purchases rather than $5 billion) so that it can extend into early March. Maintaining the $5 billion pace for the next program would see it concluding in late January requiring the Bank to make an announcement about any future program at the December Board meeting.

We expect that the Board will decide to taper the following program to $50 billion but such a decision will be better made at the February 2022 Board meeting rather than in December when much more information, including the intentions of the Federal Reserve, might be available.

Consistent with the tapering decision we also expect that, having extended the Yield Curve Control policy to target the November 2024 bond, the Board will announce that it is not extending Yield Curve Control beyond the November bond, making the February 2022 Board meeting an important milestone in the Bank’s long road to normalising policy.

Bill Evans is the chief economist at Westpac.
</body></html>

The Governor’s Statement following the April Board meeting is as expected

bevans

Rising house prices recognised in April RBA minutes: Westpac's Bill Evans

<html><body>
The RBA have stood firm on record low interest rates at the April 2021 cash rate meeting, nothing that house prices are continuing to soar across across the nation.

The board, with newly appointed board members Carolyn Hewson and Alison Watkins, noted that housing markets have strengthened further, with prices rising in most markets.

"Housing credit growth to owner-occupiers has picked up, with strong demand from first-home buyers," RBA Governor Philip Lowe's meeting statement read.

The statement concluded with Lowe stating the board does not see a cash rate hike until 2024 at the earliest.

There are a few economists who believe there will be a cash rate hike by the end of the calendar year.

Finder's RBA cash rate survey saw six out of its 39 experts and economists it surveys every RBA month suggest there will be a rate hike, with Dale Gillham, the chief analyst at Wealth Within, expecting a rise as early as July.

Tony Makin from Griffith University, Nicholas Gruen at Lateral Economics, Noel Whittaker, QUT, Jakob B. Madsen, University of Western Australia and Clement Tisdell, UQ-School of Economics, all predict a cash rate rise in Q4 2021.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=5897]

Griffith University's professor of economics Tony Makin says that despite what the RBA is saying, a cash rate rise will be inevitable should inflationary pressures suddenly build here and overseas.

"Massive government bond issues worldwide to cover large ongoing budget deficits will also continue to exert upward pressure on bond yields.

"Although asset price inflation is not officially targeted, continued escalation of housing and share prices also suggests tighter monetary policy could be warranted sooner than expected."

Harley Dale, chief economist at CreditorWatch, says the decision comes as no surprise with the RBA injecting substantial liquidity into Australia’s financial system.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=522]

"As a result, Australia’s economy appears to be firmly in recovery mode, but we tend to gauge the situation based on aggregates and averages, which is misleading," Dale says.

“There is talk of re-emerging inflationary pressures as the economy regrows itself. That would be a good thing for the Australian economy, but as long as we stay below the aggregate the economic recovery remains fractured. 

“There are still significant parts of the economy being left behind despite overall improving conditions. If we can sustain an improvement in unemployment rates and the broader labour market, we will be well on our way to a full-blown recovery. We’re not there yet though and monthly statements from the RBA will likely reflect that fact in coming months.”
</body></html>

There are a few economists who believe there will be a cash rate hike by the end of the calendar year

No cash rate rise to 2024: RBA holds interest rate at record low 0.1 per cent at April 2021 meeting

<html><body>
GUEST OBSERVER
At last, the official labour force survey is starting to line up with other labour market measures, such as job advertisements and business surveys.
For quite some time we have argued that the divergence had largely reflected measurement issues in the official survey.
Stronger official prints in recent months means that the indicators are now all showing a tightening labour market.
The positive momentum is also consistent with the view emanating from the business surveys.
The NAB survey showed business conditions and capacity utilisation around decade highs in May.
This is happening despite weak real GDP numbers for 1Q.
The GDP print, which was published in early June, showed growth of 0.3% q-o-q and 1.7% y-o-y.
However, as we noted last month, we think most of the weakness reflects the impact of Cyclone Debbie and unusually wet weather on the east Coast.
Despite weak real GDP, nominal GDP rose by a strong 7.7% y-o-y, which is its fastest rate in over five years.
Nominal growth has been boosted by the rise in commodity prices, although there are also some signs that the nominal lift has moved beyond just a mining story.
Corporate profits have also picked up in a broad range of non-mining sectors.
However, as yet, we have not seen a pick-up in wages growth.
Although there are signs that wages growth has stabilised, it is still running at multi-decade lows.
Nonetheless, we expect wages growth to pick-up in 2H17 supported by a number of factors.
First, corporate profits growth is strong and historically this leads to a rise in wages growth.
Second, the labour market is tightening, and even though the link between wages and jobs market conditions may be weaker than in the past we still expect some traction.
Third, the minimum wage was lifted by more this year than last year, which we expect could add 0.2-0.3ppts to wages growth.
The lift in wages growth should support a gradual rise in underlying inflation.
Once the RBA sees clear evidence of a lift in wages growth, we expect that a hike will not be too far away.
On fixed income strategy, expect front-end risk premium to rise as the RBA would like to remove accommodative policy if/when the data allows, similar to other central banks.
As we pointed out last month, ahead of the 1Q national accounts, Cyclone Debbie and wet weather on the east Coast were expected to hold back first quarter GDP growth and indeed they did (Chart 1).
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/06/30/Chart-1.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2017/06/30/Chart-1.jpg" alt="">
Exports fell, partly due to a fall in coal exports out of Queensland, retail sales were held back and housing construction also declined in the first quarter.
Much of this disruption is likely to be temporary.
Coal exports and retail sales have already bounced back and there is still a considerable pipeline of work yet to be done on apartments in major cities.
We expect modest growth in 2Q, as the cyclone effect continued into April, and then a strong bounce back in 2H.
Although real GDP was weak in the first quarter, nominal GDP rose at its fastest pace in over five years, particularly supported by higher commodity prices (Chart 2).
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/06/30/Chart-2.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2017/06/30/Chart-2.jpg" alt="">
Measures that are better at abstracting from the impact of weather, such as business surveys and the labour market numbers, are also showing that underlying economic conditions are improving, rather than deteriorating.
Indeed, the NAB survey shows that business conditions and capacity utilisation are around decade-highs (Chart 3 and 4).
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/06/30/Chart-3.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2017/06/30/Chart-3.jpg" alt="">
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/06/30/Chart-4.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2017/06/30/Chart-4.jpg" alt="">
The improvement in surveyed business conditions is consistent with a strong recent lift in profits.
Although part of this reflects the effect of higher commodity prices on the mining industry, with mining profits up 113% y-o-y, non-mining profits have also lifted by a strong 17% y-o-y.
The jobs numbers suggest the labour market is tightening rather than loosening.
Given measurement issues in the official survey we have, for some time, been putting more emphasis on other measures of the labour market, such as the job advertisements and business surveys.
To keep track, we constructed a labour market index, which has shown a trend improvement in the jobs market, unlike the official survey (Chart 5).
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/06/30/Chart-5.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2017/06/30/Chart-5.jpg" alt="">
However, the official numbers are now starting to come back into line.
A strong lift in the official jobs growth numbers in the past three months drove the unemployment rate down to 5.5% in May, which is its lowest level since 2013 (Chart 6).
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/06/30/Chart-6.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2017/06/30/Chart-6.jpg" alt="">
The official numbers also showed a sharp jump in hours worked in May, which has brought the trend growth in hours worked back into line with the employment numbers (Chart 7).
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/06/30/Chart-7.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2017/06/30/Chart-7.jpg" alt="">
A key question for the RBA is: when will the tightening in the labour market start to translate into a pick-up in wages growth?
The main indicators are showing signs that wage growth has stabilised, but there are few signs of a pick-up at this stage.
Many other countries are also grappling with the fact that labour markets have tightened, but wages growth has not yet lifted.
Our central case is that local wages growth will gradually pick-up in the second half of 2017.
Our view has largely been formed around the idea that there is a strong historical positive correlation between the terms of trade (mostly driven by commodity prices) and unit labour costs in Australia.
Typically, when commodity prices rise and support a pick-up in nominal GDP, some part of this boost to incomes ends up in wages growth.
Although it could be argued that the lift in commodity prices will have less effect this time around, as there is unlikely to be another mining investment boom, it is also worth keeping in mind that profits are also rising in the non-mining industries (Chart 8).
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/06/30/Chart-8.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2017/06/30/Chart-8.jpg" alt="">
As the chart shows, there is also a strong positive correlation between non-mining profits and wages growth.
The recent lift in the minimum wage also supports our view.
The Fair Work Commission announced a 3.3% rise in the minimum wage from 1 July 2017, which is larger than the 2.4% rise announced last year.
This decision directly affects around one-quarter of all workers and can also form the benchmark for other enterprise bargaining agreements.
We expect the decision to lift wages growth by 0.2-0.3ppts.
The improvement in the local labour market and business conditions as well as improving global economic conditions and a recent shift in rhetoric at other central banks will all act to re-affirm the RBA’s view that it will not need to cut the cash rate further.
Although the RBA’s commentary has suggested that the leverage-fuelled housing market boom had been the key reason that it is not considering further cuts, improvements in the local and global macro-economy over recent months would further bolster the central bank’s resolve.
The RBA will also be keenly aware that central banks have gradually been turning more hawkish in recent weeks.
The Federal Reserve has clearly suggested that it will begin to reduce its balance sheet soon and that it intends to continue to lift its policy rate.
The ECB has given stronger hints that it may reduce its quantitative easing program soon.
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/06/30/Chart-9.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2017/06/30/Chart-9.jpg" alt="">
There is debate at the Bank of England, amongst the MPC members, about the possibility of a rate hike.
Officials from the Bank of Canada and Norges Bank have turned more hawkish in recent weeks.
We do not expect the RBA to introduce any explicit forward-guidance in its policy statement, although the tone of the commentary may very well be a little more upbeat than previously, particularly on the local labour market.
We expect the RBA to point to forthcoming CPI numbers as the next key release to watch.
In our view, once the RBA has clear signs that wages growth is past its trough it will not be long before it will seek to move towards a more normal cash rate setting.
Our central case is for a hike in 1Q18 (not quite yet, but sooner than the market is currently pricing).
A growing theme in developed market central bank communication has been a boldness in signalling the removal of accommodative monetary policy, with softening headline inflation and weak wage growth downplayed.
The Bank of Canada’s recent communication shift was particularly interesting given that Canada shares many similar macro attributes with Australia, meaning they tend to be cyclically synchronised.
That front-end pricing has moved to opposite extremes presents an attractive cross-market opportunity, in our view.
Even if the RBA is not the “next cab off the rank”, we believe the risk-reward favours positioning for higher AUD front-end risk premium.
Current OIS implies a broadly flat path for the cash rate over the next 12 months, while only Japan and Switzerland have a lower spread between 2Y IRS and the 3m fixing among the G10 countries.
Yet, the RBA has set a very high bar for cuts and we suspect the central bank has a strong desire to remove its accommodative policy if/when the data allows.
Recent tightening of the labour market (the unemployment rate fell to 5.5% in May – the lowest since 2013) should embolden the hawks.
Paul Bloxham is the Chief Economist for HSBC and Daniel Smith is the Economist for HSBC. They can be contacted <a href="https://www.hsbc.com.au" target="_blank">here</a>.
</body></html>

jchancellor-FAypfDUnLy

The hikes are coming, but not quite there yet: HSBC

<html><body>
GUEST OBSERVER
The cash rate has been left at a record low of 2 percent for a 9th month (10 months of rates at 2 per cent).
The Reserve Bank Board noted that the "expansion in the non-mining parts of the economy strengthened during 2015.
What does it all mean? 
The Reserve Bank adopted a ‘conditional easing bias’ in November. That is, the Reserve Bank indicated at the time that scope existed for lower interest rates “should that be appropriate to lend support to demand.” The Reserve Bank Board didn’t feel the need to act on that bias in December, and nor did it decide to take action at the latest meeting.
And if anything, the Reserve Bank has watered down the ‘easing bias’. It may not have become more hawkish (removed the bias or moved in favour of higher rates) but it certainly hasn’t become more dovish as some commentators expected it would.
The Reserve Bank has clearly become more upbeat on the Australian economy, highlighting lower unemployment, stronger business lending, and above-average business conditions.
However, at the same time the RBA upgraded commentary on the Australian economy, it became a touch more downbeat on the global economy. Not markedly mind you, but clearly if rates were to be cut in Australia, it would be because the global economy had deteriorated: “Recent information suggests the global economy is continuing to grow, though at a slightly lower pace than earlier expected.”
Is the Reserve Bank worried about the recent lift in the Australian dollar? Not in the least. The commentary on the Aussie was brief: “The exchange rate has continued its adjustment to the evolving economic outlook.”
On the housing market, RBA noted: “The pace of growth in dwelling prices has moderated in Melbourne and Sydney over recent months and has remained mostly subdued in other cities. “ In other words, scrub out one of the issues that was on the wall of worry in 2015 – the housing market has become more balanced.
Perspectives on interest rates
The previous rate cut was in May 2015 (25 basis points), taking the cash rate to a record low of 2.00 per cent.
There have been 10 rate cuts since November 2011.
The Reserve Bank had previously lifted rates seven times from October 2009 to November 2010 – a total of 1.75 percentage points, from 3.00 per cent to 4.75 per cent.
What are the implications?
CommSec doesn’t expect any change in the cash rate for the foreseeable future. Underlying inflation remains at the bottom of the 2-3 per cent target band but should lift over 2016 as import prices gradually lift in response to a weaker exchange rate.
If the Reserve Bank was to cut rates it would be because of global factors – certainly not domestic considerations.
With interest rates poised to stay low or potentially move even lower, investors will need to remain pro-active in embracing the best deals on online bank accounts. Borrowers also need to be on guard as fixed-term rates could move either way in coming months. While the US Federal Reserve is seeking to ‘normalise’ interest rates, lower oil prices, sharemarket volatility and uncertainty on the Chinese economy may stay the Fed’s hand.
Craig James is the chief economist at <a href="https://www.comsec.com.au/default.aspx" target="_blank">CommSec</a>.
</body></html>

The RBA February 2016 hold decision, what it means: CommSec's Craig James

<html><body>
GUEST OBSERVER
With no major economic developments in the last month, September quarter inflation due later this month and new Governor Philip Lowe at the helm presumably wanting to demonstrate a degree of policy continuity it was no surprise to see the Reserve Bank of Australia leave rates on hold at 1.5 percent at its October meeting. 
While Philip Lowe did make a few changes to the RBA’s post meeting Statement these don’t appear to signal any major changes in the RBA’s economic forecasts. In short the RBA continues to see the global economy continuing to grow at a below average pace, financial markets functioning effectively, the Australian economy continuing to growth, inflation expected to remain low and an appreciating $A complicating the adjustment in the economy. 
Two areas where there were more substantial changes in commentary were in relation to the labour market and the housing market. In terms of the labour market the RBA has highlighted significant variation across the country  in jobs growth and the divergence between part time and full time employment but seems reasonably relaxed about the employment outlook. 
On the housing market the RBA remains relatively sanguine but has acknowledged a strengthening in some markets recently (presumably Sydney and Melbourne), suggesting that it may be becoming a bit less relaxed.
The RBA seems to remain comfortable in waiting for the surge in apartment supply to cool property prices. Given the recent rebound in auction clearance rates, Sydney and Melbourne property prices continuing to growth solidly after huge gains over the last four years (6 percent in Sydney, 40 percent in Melbourne) and the risk that the apartment building boom will go way beyond the point of being healthy, my view remains that the RBA is a bit too relaxed about home prices and at least a bit of “jawboning” would be appropriate at present.
The fact that the RBA did not repeat its July meeting reference to upcoming inflation data – with September quarter inflation data due later this month – suggests that unlike in July its bias on interest rates is neutral.
However, we remain of the view that the RBA will cut rates again at its November meeting when it reviews its economic forecasts after the release of the September quarter inflation data in late October. The near term risks to inflation are on the downside thanks to competitive pressures globally and record low wages growth domestically and the $A is still too high and at risk of further appreciation given the Fed’s endless delays in raising rates again.
However, with economic growth holding up very well, commodity prices and national income looking like it has bottomed and the new Governor perhaps preferring a period of stability, this is a close call and is critically dependent on seeing a lower than expected September quarter inflation result. Either way a cut in the cash rate to 1 percent or below and the adoption of quantitative easing remains very unlikely in Australia.
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/https://plus.google.com/110172465327488162875?rel=author" target="_blank">SHANE OLIVER</a> is head of investment strategy and economics and chief economist at <a href="https://www.ampcapital.com.au/home" target="_blank">AMP Capital</a> and is responsible for AMP Capital's diversified investment funds.
</body></html>

RBA a bit more realistic on the property market: Shane Oliver

<html><body>
Minutes of the Monetary Policy Meeting of the Reserve Bank Board
Sydney – 6 December 2016
Members Present
Philip Lowe (Governor and Chair), Guy Debelle (Deputy Governor), John Akehurst, Kathryn Fagg, John Fraser (Secretary to the Treasury), Ian Harper, Allan Moss AO, Heather Ridout AO, Catherine Tanna
Others Present
Christopher Kent (Assistant Governor, Economic), Chris Ryan (Acting Assistant Governor, Financial Markets), Luci Ellis (Head, Financial Stability Department), Alexandra Heath (Head, Economic Analysis Department)
Anthony Dickman (Secretary), Andrea Brischetto (Deputy Secretary)
Domestic Economic Conditions
Members commenced their discussion of the domestic economy by noting that the unemployment rate was unchanged at 5.6 per cent in October, somewhat more than ½ percentage point below its peak in mid 2015.
Despite a rise in full-time employment in October, all of the growth in employment over 2016 had been in part-time employment, with an increased share of people in the labour force reporting that they would like to work more hours.
Members discussed various measures of labour underutilisation, including those that account for the number of hours sought by the unemployed and the additional hours desired by those who are underemployed (and who are also recorded as actively searching for additional hours).
Such hours-based measures of underutilisation had declined to a similar extent as the unemployment rate since late 2015 and, unlike the heads-based measure, had not increased recently.
Wage growth had remained low and continued to be lower than implied by the historical relationship with the unemployment rate.
The wage price index (WPI) had increased by a little less than expected in the September quarter and year-ended growth in the WPI had eased a little further.
Although there had been some evidence from enterprise agreements that growth in construction wages had picked up recently, these agreements covered a relatively small share of the total workforce.
Members noted that the September quarter national accounts would be released the day after the meeting.
Based on recent data, GDP growth was likely to be weaker than expected at the time of the November Statement on Monetary Policy and lower in year-ended terms than estimates of potential growth.
Consumption growth was expected to have remained below average in the September quarter.
The volume of retail sales, which represent around one-third of total consumption, had been little changed in the quarter, pointing to continued weakness in growth of goods consumption.
In contrast, in recent months, the value of retail sales had grown at an above-average pace and liaison with retailers suggested that trading conditions had remained steady.
Households' perceptions of their personal finances had remained at above-average levels.
Members noted that the work done on residential construction had fallen in the September quarter, suggesting that the national accounts measure of dwelling investment was likely to have declined in the same period.
Although residential building approvals had declined sharply in October, the significant amount of work in the pipeline suggested that the level of dwelling investment activity would remain high.
Nevertheless, the contribution of dwelling investment to growth was expected to decline over the forecast period.
Overall, conditions in the established housing market had strengthened over recent months. Members noted, however, that supply and demand conditions had continued to vary across the country.
In Sydney and Melbourne, housing price inflation had picked up and auction clearance rates were at high levels.
Outside of Sydney, increases in prices of apartments had generally been smaller than increases in prices of detached houses.
Investor housing loan approvals had picked up noticeably and credit growth had also increased a little over recent months, particularly in New South Wales.
In contrast, housing market conditions had remained weak in Perth. Rental markets had been subdued overall and continued to be particularly weak in Perth.
Business investment looked to have been a little weaker than expected in the September quarter.
The ABS capital expenditure survey and separate data on non-residential building work done had suggested that mining investment fell in the quarter. Further falls were anticipated, but the subtraction from GDP growth in 2016/17 was expected to be smaller than in 2015/16.
Capital expenditure for the non-mining activity covered by the survey, which is less than half of the activity covered in the national accounts measure of non-mining business investment, was little changed over the year to September.
Capital expenditure survey data on investment intentions continued to point to a decline in non-mining investment in 2016/17.
Members also noted that, over the past few years, the national accounts had tended to report slightly stronger outcomes for non-mining business investment than implied by the data on capital expenditure intentions.
Non-residential building approvals had increased in recent months, but the pipeline of non-residential construction work was low.
Private sector survey measures of business conditions and non-mining capacity utilisation had been above their long-run averages, but had eased since earlier in the year.
Export volumes increased in the September quarter, led by service exports.
Prices for a number of Australia's key commodities, including coking coal, iron ore and base metals, had increased noticeably over the June and September quarters, which had contributed to the increase in Australia's terms of trade of about 6 per cent over that period.
Commodity prices had risen further over November, suggesting that an increase in the terms of trade in the December quarter was likely.
Oil prices had increased over recent months, partly in response to announcements by OPEC about reductions to supply.
International Economic Conditions
Growth in GDP of Australia's major trading partners had picked up a bit over recent months, although growth remained a little below average.
Members noted that there had been a general improvement in survey measures of global business conditions.
They also noted that the downside risks to global inflation appeared to have diminished somewhat, in part because commodity prices had increased significantly over 2016 to date.
Prospects for fiscal expansion in some countries had also contributed to expectations that inflation would increase.
However, inflation had remained below most central banks' targets and monetary policies had continued to be accommodative.
Economic activity in China had continued to be supported by accommodative financial conditions and public spending, particularly on infrastructure.
However, high and rising levels of debt remained a risk to the outlook over the longer term.
Members observed that measures had been introduced to dampen housing price inflation in a number of cities and that this posed an additional risk that growth in housing market activity might be lower in the period ahead.
Producer prices had increased over the preceding year, following declines over several years, and measures of consumer price inflation had edged higher.
In the United States, GDP growth had been around estimates of potential over the past year.
While business investment had been weak, consumption growth had continued to be supported by strong labour market outcomes.
Members noted that it was too early to know much about the effect of the outcome of the US Presidential election on the outlook for US economic activity and inflation, or the potential spillovers to other economies.
There was uncertainty about the policy agenda of the incoming administration.
A range of estimates suggested that the plans for fiscal policy could provide a boost to economic activity over the next few years and place some upward pressure on inflation.
Working in the other direction, however, if policies were enacted to restrict trade, there could be significant adverse effects on the economic outlook in the United States and beyond.
Economic activity in the euro area had continued to recover. Members noted that some economies in the euro area were facing larger structural challenges than others.
In Italy, the level of GDP remained lower than it had been prior to the global financial crisis, non-performing loans had remained at a high level and gross public debt was around 135 per cent of GDP.
Labour market conditions had continued to tighten in most advanced economies. In the United States, this had led to a modest pick-up in nominal wage growth, but unit labour costs had been rising at an above-average rate.
Growth in wages and unit labour costs had also been above average in Japan.
In the United States, core inflation had been only a little below the Federal Reserve's goal during 2016, while core inflation in Japan had moderated over the course of the year to date and inflation expectations had remained relatively low.
In the euro area, inflation had remained lower than the target of the European Central Bank, but measures of longer-run inflation expectations had stabilised.
Financial Markets
Members commenced their discussion of financial markets by noting that there had been some large market movements following the outcome of the US Presidential election, but that movements had been generally orderly and the increase in volatility had been short-lived.
US Treasury yields had risen sharply following the outcome of the US Presidential election, reflecting the assessment in financial markets that the Trump administration's policies overall were likely to boost growth and inflation, although there was considerable uncertainty around this.
Sovereign bond yields had also increased in the other major economies, though by less than in the United States. Members observed that the increase in US Treasury yields, while large, was not as large as some other movements in recent decades and yields remained very low by historical standards.
The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) left the policy rate unchanged at its November meeting. Members noted that markets had fully priced in an increase in the policy rate at the FOMC's December meeting and expected a steeper, although still gradual, path for future rate increases owing, in part, to the fiscal stimulus expected to be pursued by the Trump administration.
European sovereign bond spreads to German Bunds had widened ahead of the Italian referendum and upcoming elections in some other countries.
There had been little movement in corporate bond spreads in the major economies in the previous month.
Share market indices in the United States fell immediately following the outcome of the US Presidential election, but very quickly recovered to be higher over November as a whole.
The sectoral pattern of movements across US stocks reflected the expected effects of the Trump administration's policies as well as higher oil prices.
In Japan, the depreciation of the yen and better-than-expected growth had contributed to a rise in share prices. European share prices had declined slightly in November.
Emerging market bonds and equities were generally sold off following the outcome of the US Presidential election, reflecting market expectations of a possible increase in trade protection and increased US dollar debt-servicing costs for firms in emerging market economies, given higher US yields and exchange rate depreciations against the US dollar.
The depreciation of the Mexican peso against the US dollar was particularly marked. Several emerging market central banks had intervened in the foreign exchange market. The US dollar had also appreciated against most advanced economy currencies.
A notable exception was the appreciation of the UK pound against the US dollar during November.
The Chinese renminbi had appreciated on a trade-weighted basis over November, but had depreciated against the US dollar.
Net private sector capital outflows had increased over the September quarter and the Chinese authorities had recently introduced a number of measures to increase scrutiny of capital outflows.
Members noted that the Australian dollar had depreciated by 2 per cent against the US dollar since the previous meeting but had appreciated against the yen and some other Asian currencies, to be little changed on a trade-weighted basis.
Australian government bond yields and share prices rose in November.
As in other markets, resource stocks had outperformed the broader market, reflecting higher commodity prices, while high-dividend yielding stocks had fallen owing to higher bond yields.
Australian banks' bond issuance was above average in November and strong in 2016 overall.
Banks had issued more longer-term bonds in recent years in response to increased demand from investors searching for yield and the forthcoming introduction of new prudential requirements.
Members noted that banks' deposit rates had been little changed during November.
While the cost of new bond issuance had increased, it remained below that seen at the start of 2016.
Some banks had announced increases to advertised lending rates, mostly for housing and in particular to investors.
Pricing in domestic financial markets indicated that market participants did not expect a reduction in the cash rate at the December meeting.
Considerations for Monetary Policy
In considering the stance of monetary policy, members discussed the policy decisions made throughout the easing phase since late 2011, during which the cash rate had been lowered in aggregate by 3¼ percentage points.
The lower rates had helped support the economy in the transition following the mining investment boom and, more recently, had been in response to lower-than-expected inflation.
Members discussed the effect of lower interest rates on asset prices and the decisions by households to borrow, particularly given the already high levels of household debt.
Over recent years the Board had sought to balance the benefits of lower interest rates in supporting growth and achieving the inflation target with the potential risks to household balance sheets.
Members recognised that this balance would need to be kept under review.
Turning to the policy decision for the December meeting, members noted that the international environment had been more positive in recent months, while observing that significant risks to the outlook for global activity persisted.
The Chinese economy had remained resilient, supported by expansionary fiscal policy and rapid growth in financing.
International financial markets had interpreted the outcome of the US election, specifically the implications for infrastructure spending, as being positive for growth and inflation in the United States.
At the same time, there were increased expectations that the Federal Reserve would increase policy rates at the next meeting of the FOMC.
Rising commodity prices had also contributed to an assessment that the outlook for global inflation was more balanced than it had been for some time, although inflation remained below most central banks' targets.
Domestically, data that had become available over the previous month indicated that GDP growth in the September quarter was likely to be lower than the forecast at the time of the November Statement on Monetary Policy.
Year-ended growth was expected to decline before picking up to be above potential later in the forecast period, supported by low interest rates and the lower exchange rate since 2013.
Members noted that these factors had assisted the economy in its transition following the mining investment boom and that an appreciating exchange rate could complicate the adjustment.
Falls in mining investment were expected to subtract less from GDP growth over time and resource exports were expected to continue to make a substantial contribution to growth.
There was still considerable uncertainty about the momentum in the labour market. The unemployment rate had declined over the past year, as had measures of excess capacity that accounted for the number of additional desired hours of work.
Part-time employment had grown strongly over the previous year, but employment growth overall had slowed.
Members noted that there was expected to be excess capacity in the labour market for some time, which was consistent with further indications of subdued labour cost pressures.
This suggested that inflation would remain low for some time before returning to more normal levels.
Housing market conditions had strengthened overall over preceding months, although there was considerable variation across the country and between houses and apartments.
Housing credit growth had picked up a little, particularly for investors.
The supervisory measures that had strengthened lending standards in the housing market had led some lenders to take a more cautious attitude to lending in certain segments.
At the same time, the increase in global bond yields had led some lenders to increase their rates on fixed-interest rate loans.
Taking into account the information that had become available over the previous month, and having eased monetary policy earlier in the year, the Board judged that holding the stance of policy unchanged would be consistent with sustainable growth in the economy and achieving the inflation target over time.
The Decision
The Board decided to leave the cash rate unchanged at 1.5 per cent.
</body></html>

Rental markets remain subdued for investors: RBA December board minutes

<html><body>
<h4>Statement by Philip Lowe, Governor: Monetary Policy Decision</h4>
At its meeting today, the Board decided to leave the cash rate unchanged at 1.50 per cent.
Conditions in the global economy are continuing to improve. Labour markets have tightened further and above-trend growth is expected in a number of advanced economies, although uncertainties remain. Growth in the Chinese economy has picked up a little and is being supported by increased spending on infrastructure and property construction, with the high level of debt continuing to present a medium-term risk. Commodity prices have generally risen recently, although Australia's terms of trade are still expected to decline over the period ahead.
Wage growth remains subdued in most countries, as does core inflation. Headline inflation rates have declined recently, largely reflecting the earlier decline in oil prices. In the United States, the Federal Reserve expects to increase interest rates further and there is no longer an expectation of additional monetary easing in other major economies. Financial markets have been functioning effectively and volatility remains low.
The Bank's forecasts for the Australian economy are largely unchanged. Over the next couple of years, the central forecast is for the economy to grow at an annual rate of around 3 per cent. The transition to lower levels of mining investment following the mining investment boom is almost complete, with some large LNG projects now close to completion. Business conditions have improved and capacity utilisation has increased. Some pick-up in non-mining business investment is expected. The current high level of residential construction is forecast to be maintained for some time, before gradually easing. One source of uncertainty for the domestic economy is the outlook for consumption. Retail sales have picked up recently, but slow growth in real wages and high levels of household debt are likely to constrain growth in spending.
Employment growth has been stronger over recent months, and has increased in all states. The various forward-looking indicators point to continued growth in employment over the period ahead. The unemployment rate is expected to decline a little over the next couple of years. Against this, however, wage growth remains low and this is likely to continue for a while yet.
The recent inflation data were broadly as the Bank expected. Both CPI inflation and measures of underlying inflation are running at a little under 2 per cent. Inflation is expected to pick up gradually as the economy strengthens. Higher prices for electricity and tobacco are expected to boost CPI inflation. A factor working in the other direction is increased competition from new entrants in the retail industry.
The Australian dollar has appreciated recently, partly reflecting a lower US dollar. The higher exchange rate is expected to contribute to subdued price pressures in the economy. It is also weighing on the outlook for output and employment. An appreciating exchange rate would be expected to result in a slower pick-up in economic activity and inflation than currently forecast.
Conditions in the housing market vary considerably around the country. Housing prices have been rising briskly in some markets, although there are some signs that these conditions are starting to ease. In some other markets, prices are declining. In the eastern capital cities, a considerable additional supply of apartments is scheduled to come on stream over the next couple of years. Rent increases remain low in most cities. Investors in residential property are facing higher interest rates. There has also been some tightening of credit conditions following recent supervisory measures to address the risks associated with high and rising levels of household indebtedness. Growth in housing debt has been outpacing the slow growth in household incomes.
The low level of interest rates is continuing to support the Australian economy. Taking account of the available information, the Board judged that holding the stance of monetary policy unchanged at this meeting would be consistent with sustainable growth in the economy and achieving the inflation target over time.
To go to the RBA website <a href="https://www.rba.gov.au/media-releases/2017/mr-17-13" style="font-size: 12.16px;">click here</a>.
 
</body></html>

Investors facing higher rates warns RBA Governor Philip Lowe's August 2017 statement

<html><body>
Statement by Philip Lowe, Governor: Monetary Policy Decision
<div>
<div class="rss-mr-content">
At its meeting today, the Board decided to leave the cash rate unchanged at 1.50 per cent.
The broad-based pick-up in the global economy is continuing. Labour markets have tightened further in many countries and forecasts for global growth have been revised up since last year. Above-trend growth is expected in a number of advanced economies, although uncertainties remain. In China, growth is being supported by increased spending on infrastructure and property construction, with the high level of debt continuing to present a medium-term risk. The rise in commodity prices over the past year has boosted Australia's national income.
Headline inflation rates, having moved higher over the past year, have declined recently in response to lower oil prices. Wage growth remains subdued in most countries, as does core inflation. Further increases in US interest rates are expected and there is no longer an expectation of additional monetary easing in other major economies. Financial markets have been functioning effectively and volatility has been low.
As expected, GDP growth slowed in the March quarter, partly reflecting temporary factors. The Australian economy is expected to strengthen gradually, with the transition to lower levels of mining investment following the mining investment boom almost complete. Business conditions have improved and capacity utilisation has increased. Business investment has picked up in those parts of the country not directly affected by the decline in mining investment. At the same time, consumption growth remains subdued, reflecting slow growth in real wages and high levels of household debt.
Indicators of the labour market remain mixed. Employment growth has been stronger over recent months. The various forward-looking indicators point to continued growth in employment over the period ahead. Wage growth remains low, however, and this is likely to continue for a while yet. Inflation is expected to increase gradually as the economy strengthens.
The outlook continues to be supported by the low level of interest rates. The depreciation of the exchange rate since 2013 has also assisted the economy in its transition following the mining investment boom. An appreciating exchange rate would complicate this adjustment.
Conditions in the housing market vary considerably around the country. Housing prices have been rising briskly in some markets, although there are some signs that these conditions are starting to ease. In some other markets, prices are declining. In the eastern capital cities, a considerable additional supply of apartments is scheduled to come on stream over the next couple of years. Rent increases are the slowest for two decades. Growth in housing debt has outpaced the slow growth in household incomes. The recent supervisory measures should help address the risks associated with high and rising levels of household indebtedness. Lenders have also announced increases in mortgage rates for investor and interest-only loans.
Taking account of the available information, the Board judged that holding the stance of monetary policy unchanged at this meeting would be consistent with sustainable growth in the economy and achieving the inflation target over time.
To go to the RBA website <a href="https://www.rba.gov.au/media-releases/2017/mr-17-13" target="_blank">click here</a>.
</div>
</div>
<div class="box-enquiries"> </div>
 
</body></html>

Easing and declining property prices noted: RBA Governor Philip Lowe's July 2017 statement

<html><body>
RBA Governor Philip Lowe's November 2016 RBA statement.
<div>
<div class="rss-mr-content">
At its meeting today, the Board decided to leave the cash rate unchanged at 1.50 per cent.
The global economy is continuing to grow, at a lower than average pace. Labour market conditions in the advanced economies have improved over the past year, but growth in global industrial production and trade remains subdued. Economic conditions in China have steadied recently, supported by growth in infrastructure and property construction, although medium-term risks to growth remain. Inflation remains below most central banks' targets.
Commodity prices have risen over recent months, following the very substantial declines over the past few years. The higher commodity prices have supported a rise in Australia's terms of trade, although they remain much lower than they have been in recent years.
Financial markets are functioning effectively. Funding costs for high-quality borrowers remain low and, globally, monetary policy remains remarkably accommodative. Government bond yields have risen, but are still low by historical standards.
In Australia, the economy is growing at a moderate rate. The large decline in mining investment is being offset by growth in other areas, including residential construction, public demand and exports. Household consumption has been growing at a reasonable pace, but appears to have slowed a little recently. Measures of household and business sentiment remain above average.
Labour market indicators continue to be somewhat mixed. The unemployment rate has declined this year, although there is considerable variation in employment growth across the country. Part-time employment has been growing strongly, but employment growth overall has slowed. The forward-looking indicators point to continued expansion in employment in the near term.
Inflation remains quite low. The September quarter inflation data were broadly as expected, with underlying inflation continuing to run at around 1½ per cent. Subdued growth in labour costs and very low cost pressures elsewhere in the world mean that inflation is expected to remain low for some time.
Low interest rates have been supporting domestic demand and the lower exchange rate since 2013 has been helping the traded sector. Financial institutions are in a position to lend for worthwhile purposes. These factors are assisting the economy to make the necessary adjustments, though an appreciating exchange rate could complicate this.
The Bank's forecasts for output growth and inflation are little changed from those of three months ago. Over the next year, the economy is forecast to grow at close to its potential rate, before gradually strengthening. Inflation is expected to pick up gradually over the next two years.
In the housing market, supervisory measures have strengthened lending standards and some lenders are taking a more cautious attitude to lending in certain segments. Turnover in the housing market and growth in lending for housing have slowed over the past year. The rate of increase in housing prices is also lower than it was a year ago, although prices in some markets have been rising briskly over the past few months. Considerable supply of apartments is scheduled to come on stream over the next couple of years, particularly in the eastern capital cities. Growth in rents is the slowest for some decades.
Taking account of the available information, and having eased monetary policy at its May and August meetings, the Board judged that holding the stance of policy unchanged at this meeting would be consistent with sustainable growth in the economy and achieving the inflation target over time.
</div>
</div>
<div class="box-enquiries"> </div>
 
</body></html>

Rba Rate Decision

Editor's Picks

Have something to contribute?

Developments

New apartments

New townhouses

News

Rba Rate Decision

Editor's Picks

Receive the latest news stories to your inbox

Have something to contribute?

Developments

New apartments

New townhouses

News