Rba Rate Decision

<p>The RBA have held interest rates at a record low 0.1 per cent at the June meeting.</p>

<p>RBA Governor Philip Lowe noted in his meeting statement the increased borrowing by investors in the housing market.</p>

<p>&quot;Housing markets have strengthened further, with prices rising in all major markets. Housing credit growth has picked up, with strong demand from owner-occupiers, especially first-home buyers,&quot; Dr Lowe said.</p>

<p>&quot;There has also been increased borrowing by investors.</p>

<p>&quot;Given the environment of rising housing prices and low interest rates, the Bank will be monitoring trends in housing borrowing carefully and it is important that lending standards are maintained.</p>

<p>Finder&#39;s RBA Cash Rate Survey found that over three quarters of experts surveyed believe the cash rate won&#39;t rise until Q4 2022 or later.</p>

<p>Around 60 per cent of experts expect the cash rate to increase in 2023 or later.&nbsp; Just under 10 per cent believe the cash rate could increase before the end of 2021.</p>

<p>AMP Capital chief economist Shane Oliver said that while the economic recovery is faster than expected, the RBA&rsquo;s conditions for a rate hike are still far from being met.</p>

<p>&quot;The jobs market is still a long way from full employment, wages growth at 1.5% is way below the 3% plus pace necessary to sustain two to three per cent&nbsp;inflation and in any case inflation is still well below its target zone. So a rate hike remains some time off.&quot;</p>

<p>Despite market sentiment, and the RBA&#39;s steadfast view rates won&#39;t move until 2024, banks across Australia have been hiking their four-year fixed home loan rates.</p>

<p>According to Ratecity, at the start of the year&nbsp;were 32 four-year fixed rates under two&nbsp;per cent, including from three of the big four banks. Following BankVic&#39;s recent hike, there now isn&#39;t a single lender offering under two per cent for a four year fixed.</p>

<p>RateCity.com.au research director, Sally Tindall, said the pack was tightening as some lenders took some record low rates off the table, while others trimmed rates to become more competitive.</p>

<p>&ldquo;A number of record low rates have been relegated to the history books over the last two months, as lenders took some of the lowest rates off the table,&rdquo; Tindall&nbsp;said.</p>

<p>&ldquo;There are now just two rates that are still at record lows &ndash; Reduce Home Loan&rsquo;s variable rate at 1.77 per cent and BCU&rsquo;s 1-year fixed rate at 1.67 per cent. All the other lowest rates have been hiked.</p>

<p>&ldquo;We expect more fixed rates will rise after the RBA&rsquo;s term funding facility wraps up at the end of this month and we edge closer to the next cash rate hike.&quot;</p>


Finder's RBA Cash Rate Survey found that over three quarters of experts surveyed believe the cash rate won't rise until Q4 2022 or later

Joel Robinson

RBA holds rates at June meeting

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<p>As expected the Board of the Reserve Bank maintained its current policy settings, including the targets of 10 basis points for the cash rate and the yield on the 3 year Australian Government bond, as well as the parameters of the Term Funding Facility and the government bond purchase program.</p>

<p>Since the last Board meeting on March 2 the most important economic developments have been the announcement of the surprise fall in the unemployment rate from 6.4% in January to 5.8% in February and reports of extraordinary strength in the national housing market.</p>

<p>The unemployment report has prompted only a minor change in the Governor’s rhetoric from “the economy is still operating with considerable spare capacity and the unemployment rate remains higher than it has been for some years” (March) to “the economy is operating with considerable spare capacity and unemployment is still too high.” (April).</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=26574]</p>

<p>The key sentiments from March are repeated, “it will take some time to reduce this spare capacity and for the labour market to be tight enough to generate wage increases that are consistent with achieving the inflation target” and “wage and price pressures are subdued and are expected to remain so for some years.”</p>

<p>Rising house prices are recognised, “prices rising in most markets.” But the same approach we saw in March is adopted where lending standards are emphasised, “the Bank will be monitoring trends in housing borrowing carefully and it is important that lending standards are maintained.”</p>

<p>Importantly the Governor points out that “investor credit growth remains subdued.”</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=29914]</p>

<p>It is interesting that he did not comment, at this stage, on the recent trend for new lending for housing. In February new lending for investors lifted by 4.5% in the month compared to -0.8% for “upgraders” and -4% for First Home Buyers.</p>

<p>In fact the six month growth rate for new investor finance approvals (31%) is now above the upgraders’ rate (24%) and First Home Buyers (30%). No doubt the Board will be watching these trends very closely.</p>

<p>The commitment to the 3 year bond rate target at 0.1% was confirmed and it was noted that “The Board remains committed to the 3 year government bond yield target of 10 basis points” while noting that “Later in the year it will consider whether to retain the April 2024 bond as the target bond or to shift to the next maturity.” That would be the November 2024 bond – a likely decision which would be supported by the consistent observation that “the Board does not expect these conditions (necessary to increase the cash rate) to be met until 2024 at the earliest.”</p>

<p>Insisting that it will be 2024 “at the earliest” is not consistent with restricting the target bond to an April 2024 maturity.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=26574]</p>

<p>As with March the Governor remains supportive of the bond purchase program, “the Bank is prepared to undertake further bond purchases if doing so would assist with progress towards the goals of full employment and inflation.” Note that in the March Statement the Governor indicated his preparedness to extend the policy “if necessary” – the April sentiment seems even more supportive of the bond buying approach.</p>

<p>Since the March Board meeting the AUD has fallen by around US 1.5c but there is no indication of “job done” with respect to the bond buying program which is directly aimed at lowering the AUD (recall that Assistant Governor, Financial Markets, Chris Kent recently estimated that the QE program had lowered the AUD by up to 5%).</p>

<p>Conclusion</p>

<p>Westpac recently confirmed its views that the Bank will extend the new $100 billion bond purchasing program (which is set to begin next week) with a further $100 billion when the new program concludes in the week ending August 27.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=29921]</p>

<p>However, we expect that the new program which we expect to begin in the following week will be at a slightly slower pace ($4 billion in purchases rather than $5 billion) so that it can extend into early March. Maintaining the $5 billion pace for the next program would see it concluding in late January requiring the Bank to make an announcement about any future program at the December Board meeting.</p>

<p>We expect that the Board will decide to taper the following program to $50 billion but such a decision will be better made at the February 2022 Board meeting rather than in December when much more information, including the intentions of the Federal Reserve, might be available.</p>

<p>Consistent with the tapering decision we also expect that, having extended the Yield Curve Control policy to target the November 2024 bond, the Board will announce that it is not extending Yield Curve Control beyond the November bond, making the February 2022 Board meeting an important milestone in the Bank’s long road to normalising policy.</p>

<p>Bill Evans is the chief economist at Westpac.</p>
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The Governor’s Statement following the April Board meeting is as expected

bevans

Rising house prices recognised in April RBA minutes: Westpac's Bill Evans

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<p>The RBA have stood firm on record low interest rates at the April 2021 cash rate meeting, nothing that house prices are continuing to soar across across the nation.</p>

<p>The board, with newly appointed board members Carolyn Hewson and Alison Watkins, noted that housing markets have strengthened further, with prices rising in most markets.</p>

<p>"Housing credit growth to owner-occupiers has picked up, with strong demand from first-home buyers," RBA Governor Philip Lowe's meeting statement read.</p>

<p>The statement concluded with Lowe stating the board does not see a cash rate hike until 2024 at the earliest.</p>

<p>There are a few economists who believe there will be a cash rate hike by the end of the calendar year.</p>

<p>Finder's RBA cash rate survey saw six out of its 39 experts and economists it surveys every RBA month suggest there will be a rate hike, with Dale Gillham, the chief analyst at Wealth Within, expecting a rise as early as July.</p>

<p>Tony Makin from Griffith University, Nicholas Gruen at Lateral Economics, Noel Whittaker, QUT, Jakob B. Madsen, University of Western Australia and Clement Tisdell, UQ-School of Economics, all predict a cash rate rise in Q4 2021.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=5897]</p>

<p>Griffith University's professor of economics Tony Makin says that despite what the RBA is saying, a cash rate rise will be inevitable should inflationary pressures suddenly build here and overseas.</p>

<p>"Massive government bond issues worldwide to cover large ongoing budget deficits will also continue to exert upward pressure on bond yields.</p>

<p>"Although asset price inflation is not officially targeted, continued escalation of housing and share prices also suggests tighter monetary policy could be warranted sooner than expected."</p>

<p>Harley Dale, chief economist at CreditorWatch, says the decision comes as no surprise with the RBA injecting substantial liquidity into Australia’s financial system.</p>

<p>[smartcode_project:default project_id=522]</p>

<p>"As a result, Australia’s economy appears to be firmly in recovery mode, but we tend to gauge the situation based on aggregates and averages, which is misleading," Dale says.</p>

<p>“There is talk of re-emerging inflationary pressures as the economy regrows itself. That would be a good thing for the Australian economy, but as long as we stay below the aggregate the economic recovery remains fractured. </p>

<p>“There are still significant parts of the economy being left behind despite overall improving conditions. If we can sustain an improvement in unemployment rates and the broader labour market, we will be well on our way to a full-blown recovery. We’re not there yet though and monthly statements from the RBA will likely reflect that fact in coming months.”</p>
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There are a few economists who believe there will be a cash rate hike by the end of the calendar year

No cash rate rise to 2024: RBA holds interest rate at record low 0.1 per cent at April 2021 meeting

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<p>At its meeting today, the Board decided to maintain the targets of 10 basis points for the cash rate and the yield on the 3-year Australian Government bond, as well as the parameters of the Term Funding Facility. It also decided to purchase an additional $100 billion of bonds issued by the Australian Government and states and territories when the current bond purchase program is completed in mid April. These additional purchases will be at the current rate of $5 billion a week.</p>

<p>The outlook for the global economy has improved over recent months due to the development of vaccines. While the path ahead is likely to remain bumpy and uneven, there are better prospects for a sustained recovery than there were a few months ago. That recovery, however, remains dependent on the health situation and on significant fiscal and monetary support. Inflation remains low and below central bank targets.</p>

<p>In Australia, the economic recovery is well under way and has been stronger than was earlier expected. There has been strong growth in employment and a welcome decline in the unemployment rate to 6.6 per cent. Retail spending has been strong and many of the households and businesses that had deferred loan repayments have now recommenced repayments. These outcomes have been underpinned by Australia's success on the health front and the very significant fiscal and monetary support.</p>

<p>The recovery is expected to continue, with the central scenario being for GDP to grow by 3½ per cent over both 2021 and 2022. GDP is now expected to return to its end-2019 level by the middle of this year. Even so, the economy is expected to operate with considerable spare capacity for some time to come. The unemployment rate remains higher than it has been for the past 2 decades and while it is expected to decline, the central scenario is for unemployment to be around 6 per cent at the end of this year and 5½ per cent at the end of 2022.</p>

<p>Wage and price pressures remain subdued. The CPI increased by just 0.9 over the year to the December quarter and wages (as measured by the Wage Price Index) are increasing at the slowest rate on record. Both inflation and wages growth are expected to pick up, but to do so only gradually, with both remaining below 2 per cent over the next couple of years. In underlying terms, inflation is expected to be 1¼ per cent over 2021 and 1½ per cent over 2022.</p>

<p>In addition to the central scenario, the Board considered upside and downside scenarios related to the virus and the rollout of vaccines. Disappointing news on the health front would delay the recovery and the expected progress on reducing unemployment. On the other hand, it is possible that further positive health outcomes would boost consumer spending and investment, leading to stronger growth than is currently expected. An important near-term issue is how households and businesses adjust to the tapering of some of the COVID support measures and to what extent they will use their stronger balance sheets to support spending.</p>

<p>Financial conditions remain highly accommodative, with lending rates for most borrowers at record lows and asset prices, including housing prices, mostly increasing. Housing credit growth to owner-occupiers has picked up recently, but investor and business credit growth remain weak. The exchange rate has appreciated and is in the upper end of the range of recent years.</p>

<p>The Board remains committed to maintaining highly supportive monetary conditions until its goals are achieved. Given the current outlook for inflation and jobs, this is still some way off. The current monetary policy settings are continuing to help the economy by lowering financing costs for borrowers, contributing to a lower exchange rate than otherwise, supporting the supply of credit needed for the recovery and supporting household and business balance sheets. The decision to extend the bond purchase program will ensure a continuation of this monetary support.</p>

<p>To date, authorised deposit-taking institutions have drawn $86 billion under the Term Funding Facility and have access to a further $99 billion. The Bank has bought a cumulative $52 billion of government bonds issued by the Australian Government and the states and territories under the bond purchase program. It has not purchased bonds in support of the 3-year yield target since early December. Since the start of 2020, the RBA's balance sheet has increased by around $160 billion.</p>

<p>The Board will not increase the cash rate until actual inflation is sustainably within the 2 to 3 per cent target range. For this to occur, wages growth will have to be materially higher than it is currently. This will require significant gains in employment and a return to a tight labour market. The Board does not expect these conditions to be met until 2024 at the earliest.</p>
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No interest rate hike until at least 2024? RBA Governor Philip Lowe's February 2021 meeting statement

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<p>At its first meeting in 2021, the RBA have kept the interest rates at record 0.10 per cent.</p>

<p>They also announced an extra $100 billion of bonds. Westpac had said it was possible the RBA would extend, but expected them to wait until March.</p>

<p>CreditorWatch chief economist Harley Dale says the RBA used up its ammunition late in 2020 and the focus this year will be firmly on federal and state fiscal policy to complement super-low borrowing rates and keep the Australian economic recovery on track.</p>

<p>"In terms of all the policies that the RBA has in place, the Central Bank will be closely keeping an eye on early 2021 economic updates for key sectors such as retail," Dale said, adding that unemployment numbers, a key metric for the RBA, had been stronger than forecasted.</p>

<p>Every expert and economist surveyed in Finder's RBA Cash Rate Survey predicted the cash rate would hold, but a record number expressed positive sentiment about employment.</p>

<p>Positive sentiment around employment dropped to zero in April when the lockdowns first began, but the recent unemployment figures and recovery has seen 73 per cent suggest employment is positive, a record number since Finder started collecting the data in March 2018.</p>

<p>Graham Cooke, head of consumer research at Finder, said the swing in positivity around employment is significant. </p>

<p>“There was a lot of fear during the first three quarters of 2020 that certain sectors within the jobs market would not survive without government support. </p>

<p>“It now looks like experts are fairly confident that the market is robust enough to ride out COVID-19.</p>

<p>“Affordable housing, however, may be quickly evaporating, with house prices on-track to increase this year in every capital city,” he said.</p>

<p>Record house prices have led to a 12-month low in sentiment about housing affordability. </p>

<p>Only 10% of experts are optimistic, down from a high of 62% in September 2020.</p>

<p>“A combination of record low interest rates, reduced supply, government stimulus and bolstered savings has pushed sale prices north and climbing. </p>

<p>“Potential buyers who have been sitting on the fence should act sooner rather than later based on these results,” Cooke said.</p>

<p> </p>
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At its first meeting in 2021, the RBA have kept the interest rates at record 0.10 per cent

RBA holds interest rate at record low 0.1 per cent, purchases extra $100 billion of bonds

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<div>The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) released its Financial Aggregates figures for October 2017, which showed housing credit expanding by +6.5 per cent over the past 12 months.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Investor credit is slowing, but total housing credit growth remained higher than a year earlier, when it was +6.4 per cent.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Total housing credit broke through $1.7 trillion on the strength in owner-occupier lending. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>$60 billion of loans have now been reclassified from investor to owner-occupier. </div>
<p> </p>
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<p> </p>
<div>Personal credit contracted by -0.9 per cent over the year, while annual business credit growth was steady at +4 per cent.<br><strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;"><br></span></strong><strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">Know your limits</span></strong>
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<div> </div>
<div>APRA also released its monthly banking statistics, which revealed a similar trend, with the monthly result showing considerably faster growth in owner-occupier loans (+0.6 per cent) than investment lending (+0.15 per cent). </div>
<div> </div>
<div>Comparing the aggregates suggests that non-banks continue to garner market share. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>Westpac has been offering discounted investor loans of late, and took the opportunity to grow its investment loans books further in the month (it already has the largest mortgage book pertaining to investors). </div>
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<p> </p>
<div>Indeed, not only is new interest-only lending now well below the proposed regulatory cap, all of the major banks are now seeing investor credit growing at way below the 10 per cent annual speed limit. </div>
<p> </p>
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<div>These statistics show that there is potentially plenty of scope for banks to incentivise faster investor lending in 2018, particularly Commonwealth Bank and ANZ Bank.<br><br>Oh, and there's a Royal Commission to follow!</div>
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pwargent-M4siyDbqQY

RBA's October Financial Aggregates figures sees housing credit expand

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<p>GUEST OBSERVER</p>
<p>I've very much enjoyed reading James Glynn in my Wall Street Journal app this year, as one of the most informed commentators on Aussie monetary policy.</p>
<div>Always straight to the point and almost unerringly accurate. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>Yesterday in Glynn's take he argued that there's no point in the Reserve Bank delaying action, calling for another rate cut in July to an official cash rate of 1 per cent, followed by a possible further salvo of cuts towards the end of the year. </div>
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<div>Today's skilled job advertisements figures did little to dispel the notion, with another decline in May taking the trend year-on-year decline out to 6 per cent. </div>
<div> </div>
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<div>There were year-on-year declines across each of the three main states, and in 7 of the 8 major occupational groups. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>There's been some growth in white collar and professionals vacancies, but tellingly the construction and trades ads have dropped away sharply. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>Thus the strong jobs recovery rather looks set to die on its, erm, feet.<br><br>As the Aussie dollar scrabbles around at decade lows, benchmark iron ore spot prices have ballooned to multi-year highs across all the major grades.<br><br><div class="separator"><img src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-a6d3QotflxE/XQqd1spJ-vI/AAAAAAAAwjA/jI6_2cVIFakyjy2d2QeQvSTMAJnSekQfwCLcBGAs/s640/IO.jpg" width="640" height="358" data-original-height="803" data-original-width="1430"></div>
<br>I wanna see the receipts!</div>
<div> </div>
<div>
<em>PETE WARGENT is the co-founder of AllenWargent property buyers (London, Sydney) and a best-selling author and <a href="https://petewargent.blogspot.com/" target="_blank">blogger</a>. </em> </div>
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No reason for the RBA to wait on cutting: Pete Wargent

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<div>Well, the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) went ahead and did it anyway, with no telegraphing needed!</div>
<div> </div>
<div>With global interest rates and inflation remaining stubbornly low, the Official Cash Rate was cut by 25 basis points at 2.30pm to its lowest level in history, on the back of much softer than expected inflation figures.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>The cash rate is now at a historic low of 1.75 percent.<br><br>Obviously this is unbelievably happy news for homeowners who can probably barely believe the affordability dividend that has been slung their way since the financial crisis.</div>
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<div class="separator"><a href="/images/2016/05/03/A4.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></div>
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<div>
<div>This will pull forward demand for homebuyer loans, although restrictions on investor credit will mean that this interest rate cut may be somewhat less stimulatory than some of those delivered previously. </div>
<div> </div>
It will be interesting to see who passes on what from the three major lenders that haven't yet announced, but it wouldn't be a surprise to see some of the major banks holding back a few basis points of the 25bps cut. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>That said with the guillotine threat of a Royal Commission hovering above their respective heads, perhaps the majors will need to pass on a minimum 22bps...lol.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Interestingly National Australia Bank (NAB) immediately announced that it would pass on the full 25 basis points to variable rate homeowners. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>It is interesting to remember that an interest rate cut is rarely a "lone wolf", and this potentially makes it much more likely that we'll see a "double tap" (i.e. interest rates only tend to be cut if significant action is deemed necessary). <br><br>Counting against this, however, the wording of the statement's final paragraph which noted that "at this meeting" growth prospects would be improved by monetary easing. Does this mean that no further cuts are expected? Perhaps so, though that's open to interpretation.<br><br>The RBA's policy decision is <a href="https://www.rba.gov.au/media-releases/2016/mr-16-10" target="_blank">here</a>.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>
<p><span><em>PETE WARGENT is the co-founder of <a href="https://allenwargent.com/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">AllenWargent</a> property buyers (London, Sydney) and a best-selling author and <a href="https://petewargent.blogspot.com/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">blogger</a>.</em><br></span></p>
<p><em>His latest book is <a href="https://www.bigskypublishing.com.au/Books/General-Interest/Four-Green-Houses--and-a-Red-Hotel/1015/productview.aspx" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">Four Green Houses and a Red Hotel</a>.</em></p>
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The long slow march to zero? Pete Wargent

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<div>The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) reported credit growth of +5.5 per cent over the year to August 2017, with business credit recording a solid +0.5 per cent expansion in the month.  </div>
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<div>Earlier in the week APRA had reported that a number of banks saw the total value of their loan books decline in August, most notably the Commonwealth Bank, following a tumultuous stretch.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Indeed, all of the major banks now have investment loan books growing at a rate well below the 10 per cent speed limit imposed by the regulator, implying headroom to lend more to investors going forward. </div>
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<div>However, with a significant number of banks showing declines in their loan books during the month, this suggests that macroprudential measures are beginning to slow down lending from quite a few banks. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>In other words, perhaps the regulator is breathing down the necks of lenders just a bit more heavily than before. </div>
<p> </p>
<div class="separator"><a href="https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-w_qRzAxkK7M/Wc-XofafbkI/AAAAAAAAmZM/Of6OBe03NUcKWsHi0x5wXPzs21B4z7nOQCLcBGAs/s1600/APRA2.jpg"><img src="https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-w_qRzAxkK7M/Wc-XofafbkI/AAAAAAAAmZM/Of6OBe03NUcKWsHi0x5wXPzs21B4z7nOQCLcBGAs/s640/APRA2.jpg" width="640" height="376" data-original-height="830" data-original-width="1408"></a></div>
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<div>More loans being switched to principal and interest will help to see loan book balances ease too. </div>
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<div>In spite of this, the RBA reported housing credit growing by +6.6 per cent over the year, actually a notched faster than a year previously. </div>
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<div>Total housing credit is now approaching $1.7 trillion, with a substantial volume of loans being switched from investment to owner-occupier (no less than $58 billion since July 2015). </div>
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<div>The only reasonable conclusion appears to be that non-bank lenders are stepping in to pick up the slack, and total housing debt continues to power on. </div>
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<div>The only thing that will definitely stop the housing credit juggernaut, it seems, is rising interest rates, and these seem to be a way off yet. </div>
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Housing credit shift to non-banks?

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<p><span>Confidence means a lot to real estate markets. And it’s been a long time since Australian real estate has had such a concerted shot in the arm as on Tuesday this week.</span></p>
<p>Against the predictions of virtually every economist in the land, proving yet again how little they understand, the RBA dropped its official interest rate to depths not seen before. Most of the major lenders have dropped their mortgage rates accordingly.</p>
<p>The same economists who incorrectly predicted the RBA board’s decision will also tell you that record low interest rates equals a property boom. Goodness knows where that comes from – certainly not from any historical precedent and certainly not from the experience of recent years where only Sydney has had a market worthy of being described as a boom (no, not even Melbourne’s performance warrants the boom tag).</p>
<p>I note that RBA Governor Glenn Stevens doesn’t see the rate cut reigniting boom scenarios. "In reaching today's decision, the board took careful note of developments in the housing market, where indications are that the effects of supervisory measures are strengthening lending standards and that price pressures have tended to abate," he said in a statement. "At present, the potential risks of lower interest rates in this area are less than they were a year ago."</p>
<p>So I don’t expect the rate cut, replicated by three of the four major banks, to generate anything dramatic in the market. But it will generally help the psyche of property consumers. And the next affordability index will likely show a further improvement.</p>
<p>On the same day, Federal Treasurer Scott Morrison delivered his first Budget, which reiterated strongly that negative gearing won't change, nor will investors be slugged more on capital gains tax.</p>
<p>“We will not remove or limit negative gearing,” Morrison said in his Budget speech. “Those earning less than $80,000 make up two-thirds of those who use negative gearing. They are teachers, nurses, police officers, office workers and tradesmen. We do not consider that taxing them more on their investments is a plan for jobs and growth.”</p>
<p>Amen to that. The tragic thing about those who justify their anti-gearing stance on the grounds that it’s all about housing affordability is that scrapping negative gearing won’t make housing cheaper. Even Bill Shorten says it won’t force down the value of homes, therefore affordability won’t improve. Shorten, like so many others, doesn’t understand the affordability issue and is targeting the wrong culprits.</p>
<p>Another event on Tuesday was publication of building approvals data which showed there’s still some life in building approvals, although the monthly bounce may be an aberration because the longer-term trend is down (from record high levels, it must be said).</p>
<p>This closely followed the release of price data for April, which shows that the home value index has risen in the past three months of the year in seven of the eight capital cities.</p>
<p>That includes a 3.9% rise in Sydney. That would tend to rubbish claims of a collapse in values and a bursting of the bubble. I say “tend” because this is one set of figures from one source and it’s not uncommon for another major source to publish figures that are largely contradictory.</p>
<p>Based on the CoreLogic numbers, however, Adelaide’s prices rose 4.5% in the past three months and Brisbane was up 2.8%. I’ve been predicting good growth in those two cities, but I’m not getting overly excited because of what I said in the previous paragraph.</p>
<p>But, according to these figures, even Perth and Darwin showed glimmers of price growth in the latest quarter.</p>
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