Tasmania

<html><body>
The Lake House at Cressy, Tasmania's finest example of Georgina architecture, has been quietly sold.

The price is suggested as $9.3 million according to CoreLogic when offloaded by Virgin Australia co-founder Rob Sherrard who had restored the home after he paid $4,805,000 in 2004.

It's been bought by local farmer Robert Price.

<img alt="" src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2018/10/22/cressy2.jpeg">

The low-key Price has only ever been referred to the once, a UK Country Life magazine mention when he became engaged last year to Elle Clarke, daughter of Tom and Mandy Clarke of Quorn Hall, a Campbell Town seven generation wool growing family whose pastoral activities date back to the 1830s.

The Lake House, south-west of Launceston, was built in 1830 by London shipowner Robert Corney, inspired by British architect Sir John Soane.

<img alt="" src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2018/10/22/cressy3.jpeg">

The stately colonial property has eight bedrooms and eight bathrooms over its three levels.

There are two renovated farm houses, stables, coach house and gardener's cottage on the 490 hectares.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=27406]

Price's parents, Athel and Annie Price, are from Bolfracks House, Scotland, a 1,620 hectare farm listed last year at £11 million ($20.5 million). They also have farming land in New Zealand.

This article was first published in the Weekend Australian.

  

 

 
</body></html>

firstname1-iYD4UYzvBa

Tasmania's The Lake House quietly sells for $9.3 million

<html><body>The city of Hobart has again seen a very high rate of profit making sales with 97.2% of resales making money for their vendors in the last quester of 2020.

The rate of profit making sales increased further over the December quarter, up from 96% in the three months to September, the CoreLogic pain and gain report noted.

The lowest typical hold period associated with a profit making sales across the nation was across regional Tasmanian units, where the median hold period on a profit-making sale was just 6.7 years.

The report noted that in the 6.7 years to December 2020, regional Tasmania unit values increased around 40%, compared to an increase in unit values across the Australia-wide market of approximately 7%.

Hobart continued as the most profitable capital city across Australia in terms of the portion of resales with 97.2% of observed resales making a nominal gain in the December 2020 quarter, up from 96.7% in the three months to September.

Hobart houses saw a slightly higher rate of profit making sales (97%) than units (95.2%) in the December quarter. 

It was 97.7% in the rest of Tasmania for houses and 96.2% for rest of Tasmania units. 

"Interestingly, the rate of profit making unit sales increased 80 basis points in the quarter while the portion of unit profit making sales actually declined 80 basis points," the report noted.

Each local government area of Hobart saw a high level of profitability in the December quarter, ranging from 93.3% across Sorrell, to 98.3% across Brighton. 

Hobart has seen a renewed surge in values off the back of the cash rate reduction in November, and will likely see continued increases in profitability through the March 2021 quarter, CoreLogic forecast.

Eliza Owen, Core Logic’s Head of Research noted the lowest incidence of profit making sales across the capital cities was across Darwin, where 51.4% of properties sold for a loss.</body></html>

The city of Hobart once again saw the highest rate of profit making sales at 97%. 

jchancellor

Hobart and regional Tasmania units are selling quick and at big profits

<html><body>
Known for its lush rainforests, fresh produce and enviable lifestyle, Tasmania provides an acceptable alternative to life on the mainland.

Homebuyers are flocking to the island state as greater opportunities to work remotely arise and home prices remain relatively low.

According to CommSec’s State of the States report, Tasmania holds the mantle for the best-performing economy for the fourth quarter in a row, ranked first on relative population growth, equipment investment and dwelling starts.

Urban takes a look at three brand-new apartments in Greater Hobart. 
 

1. Kings Quarter, Kingston 
Address: Pardalote Parade, Kingston TAS 7050

[smartcode_project:default project_id=29367]

<figure><a class="colorbox colorbox-insert-image" href="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/pictures/article-images/screen_shot_2021-03-16_at_4.45.22_pm.png" rel="gallery-all" title="Image: Traders in Purple"><img alt="" class="image-article-full-width-580px" height="346" src="/s3/files/styles/article_full_width_580px/public/pictures/article-images/screen_shot_2021-03-16_at_4.45.22_pm.png?itok=any40ZYl" title="Image: Traders in Purple" width="580"></a>

<figcaption>Image: Traders in Purple</figcaption></figure>Offering a masterplanned community, developer Traders in Purple will offer a revitalisation at the Kingsborough area at their diverse mixed-use development.  

Birches Row, the first stage of the project, will offer 80 new, free-standing homes and townhouses, as well as retail, dining and office space centred around the Kingsborough Council’s multimillion-dollar public park.

The three and four-bedroom residences offer rich neighbourhood life, and feature alfresco living, multi-purpose space and landscaped courtyards. 
 

2. The Elliott, Hobart 
Address: 62 Patrick Street, Hobart TAS 7000

[smartcode_project:default project_id=89729]

<figure><a class="colorbox colorbox-insert-image" href="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/pictures/article-images/screen_shot_2021-03-16_at_4.45.37_pm.png" rel="gallery-all" title="Image: EIS Property"><img alt="" class="image-article-full-width-580px" height="352" src="/s3/files/styles/article_full_width_580px/public/pictures/article-images/screen_shot_2021-03-16_at_4.45.37_pm.png?itok=0j7kzBxx" title="Image: EIS Property" width="580"></a>

<figcaption>Image: EIS Property</figcaption></figure>Conveniently located on the doorstep to Hobart’s CBD, the Elliott presents an exclusive collection of 68 luxury homes in one, two, three and four-bedroom configurations.

The residence, designed by HBV Architects, provides expansive interior spaces, outdoor terraces and views of the city, kunanyi / Mount Wellington and beyond.

The Elliott provides convenience with the Salamanca markets, the Hobart waterfront and the CBD within walking distance from the home. 
 

3. Ingomar Residences, Hobart 
Address: 34 Patrick Street, Hobart TAS 7000

[smartcode_project:default project_id=94367]

<figure><a class="colorbox colorbox-insert-image" href="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/pictures/article-images/screen_shot_2021-03-16_at_4.46.23_pm.png" rel="gallery-all" title="Image: La Vie Collective"><img alt="" class="image-article-full-width-580px" height="375" src="/s3/files/styles/article_full_width_580px/public/pictures/article-images/screen_shot_2021-03-16_at_4.46.23_pm.png?itok=c_46t2Gw" title="Image: La Vie Collective" width="580"></a>

<figcaption>Image: La Vie Collective</figcaption></figure>Developed by the boutique Tasmanian property developers La Vie Collective, Hobart’s latest development provides homebuyers the chance to reside in one of 26 tailored residences in North Hobart.

Designed by S Group, the project boasts the luxe conversion of a historic 1897 mansion into eight residences, with an additional 18 apartments situated on the home’s former grounds.

The home features state-of-the-art technology, luxurious finishes, and heritage details, as well as views toward the city and the Hobart waterfront.
</body></html>

Homebuyers are flocking to the island state as greater opportunities to work remotely arise and home prices remain relatively low

max.kwok_55688

Home to Australia’s best performing economy: 3 brand-new apartments in Tasmania

<html><body>
<img src="https://counter.theconversation.edu.au/content/69215/count.gif?distributor=republish-lightbox-basic" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1">
GUEST OBSERVER
States like Tasmania have benefited from the end of the mining boom says Christopher Kent, speaking for the last time as the RBA Chief Economist.
Lower interest rates have boosted the housing markets, and a lower Australian dollar has made agriculture and services more competitive in these states. 
But the news isn’t all rosy. Deloitte Access Economics projects Tasmania experiencing low-but-stable growth, buffeted by demographic trends. The state is also struggling with workforce participation, employment growth, labour productivity and educational attainment. 
All of this will need to be addressed for Tasmania to realise the full benefit of the end of the mining supercycle. 
<h2>Tasmania suffered during the mining boom</h2>
From early 2000 onwards, the Australian economy split in two. While the resource-rich west and north of Australia did very well during the mining investment boom, it was not really an exciting time for Tasmania. Tasmanian economist Saul Eslake noted:
"Not only did Tasmania not benefit from the mining boom, but it was actually hurt by it."
The boom drove inflation, interest and real exchange rates to very high levels. This was not favourable nor profitable for an economy that is highly reliant on competitive industries such as tourism, agriculture, manufacturing, forestry and building. 
Tasmania was severely affected as exports make up around 19 percent of its Gross State Product (GSP). A higher Australian dollar made Tasmanian exports more expensive for others to buy. Higher interest rates made it more costly and harder to invest. 
This also manifested within Australia, as Tasmania must compete with other states in the domestic market, even with the ACT whose exports only make up about 4.6 percent of its GSP. 
During this era, Tasmania posted an average 0.3 percent and 0.27 percent annual average decline in GSP and employment growth respectively.
<h2>Some sectors are booming now</h2>
Though NSW and Victoria are leading the way, Tasmania is doing well since investment in the mining industry peaked a few years ago. 
Lower interest rates and fuel prices are breathing new life into the Tasmanian economy. Tasmania is leading the nation in both retail spending growth and housing finance growth. The latter, growing around 10.3 percent year on year, is a leading indicator for real estate activity and housing construction. 
Tasmania’s exports are also doing particularly well and tourism is a major driver of the growth in services exports. Tasmania recently topped the tourism growth league table, with international visitor numbers growing 19 percent year on year, boosted mainly by Chinese visitors. It looks like China is now impacting the Australian economy through tourism as well as mining.
The Tourism Investment Monitor 2016 report shows a 47 percent increase in Tasmania’s tourism investment last year, while the nation as a whole grew just 12 percent. In Tasmania, an unsurprising 66% of tourism investment was allocated for arts, recreation and business investment.
<h2>The way forward</h2>
But despite this growth in tourism and retail, Tasmania is still falling short in economic growth when compared to other states. It is at or near the bottom of national ranks on a number of different metrics - workforce participation, employment growth, labour productivity and educational attainment.
Further, as Deloitte highlighted, Tasmania is facing a demographic problem. The state government does have a target to grow the population to 600,000, but birth rates are low and immigration isn’t picking up the slack. Tasmania’s population is growing slowly. 
Tasmania’s low population growth, coupled with its high ageing population, could significantly affect the labour force participation rate. The working age population as a percentage of total population is declining over time. There will soon be fewer workers and consumers, leading to lower investment and demand for retail and consumer goods and services. The ageing population will also raise the costs of health care and pensions, further affecting the state budget. 
Australia’s near term growth prospects, if focused on securing stronger growth in non-mining sectors, is definitely welcome news for Tasmania. Tasmania should take advantage of the Asia-Pacific region’s increasingly dynamic environment to boost its production and innovative capacity.
But for Tasmania to have a credible continuing growth path it needs to have a realistic assessment of its own growth prospect. Tasmania needs to focus on long-term growth drivers such as population, participation and productivity. The declining labour participation rate needs to be supported through enhanced labour productivity or population growth. If not, it could lead to more anaemic growth.
Mala Raghavan is lecturer of Economics, University of Tasmania and author for The Conversation. She can be contacted <a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/mala-raghavan-213411" target="_blank">here</a>.
</body></html>

jchancellor-FAypfDUnLy

There’s hope for Tasmania in the post-mining boom era

<html><body>
Most people don’t let the facts get in the way of an entrenched attitude.
For six months or more, I’ve been getting blank stares or responses like “Seriously?” whenever I suggest to investors they should be considering Hobart and Tasmania.
It’s really easy to get a bad reputation and extremely hard to lose it. Tasmania has the image of a basket base economy. A state that’s losing population. A property market bereft of growth.
For many years, all of that has been true. It’s true no longer.
But most people won’t be convinced until they read there’s a boom on. And by then it will be too late to buy well.
Perhaps it is already. According to the latest House Price Report from Domain, Hobart median prices rose 8.7% for houses and 7.1% for apartments in 2015. The apartment result is the second best among the capital cities, after Sydney.
Other research sources have smaller growth numbers for Hobart but there’s no doubt that this market is moving. Throughout 2015, sales activity rose. Each quarter of the year recorded more sales than the same period the year before. Inevitably that translates into price growth.
Why is this happening? Because the Tasmanian economy is mounting a strong recovery. I’ve been recording this over the past six months or so, as an increasing number of surveys and reports by major organisations like ANZ Bank, NAB and others have recorded increasingly positive outlooks for the state economy.
Here are a few of them:
<ul>
<li>The NAB business survey for August 2015 showed business confidence in Tasmania at plus 12 — three times higher than the next best states, NSW and Queensland. Chamber of Commerce CEO Michael Bailey said at the time this was further proof that Tasmania’s economy was looking up. “There’s a feeling Tasmania is a very exciting place to be right now,” he said.</li>
</ul>
<ul>
<li>MyState’s quarterly report showed a rebound in economic indicators for Tasmania. MyState’s David Harradine said Tasmania was no longer the softest state economy on several indicators. “The lower Australian dollar, plus low interest rates, are providing an important tailwind,” he says. “This will continue to present opportunities for improvements ... The lower dollar is positive for the tourism, agriculture and manufacturing sectors which together represent a significant portion of overall activity and jobs.”</li>
</ul>
<ul>
<li>A Sensis survey found that Tasmania leads the nation in business confidence and its State Government is the most popular among small businesses. “Businesses see the Government as supportive and interested in small business and believe it is working to reduce bureaucracy,” Sensis CEO John Allan said. The Sensis Business Index showed business confidence has tripled in the state, rising 46 points to +64 and is now 25 points above the national average. Hobart was the most confident capital city, followed by Sydney and Brisbane, while confidence in regional Tasmania was up 52 points to +60, which ws the highest regional score in the nation.</li>
</ul>
<ul>
<li>A Deloitte Access Economics Business Outlook report described the Tasmanian economy as “well and truly on the rise”.</li>
<li>Tasmanian Chamber of Commerce CEO Michael Bailey said the effect of Australia’s post-mining boom slump on interest and exchange rates was breathing life into Tasmania’s tourism, manufacturing, forestry, building and overseas student industries. “We are seeing phenomenal opportunities, particularly for Tasmania’s agricultural and aquaculture industries,” he said.</li>
</ul>
<ul>
<li>State Treasurer Peter Gutwein said the State Government was working to grow the economy with its $315 million jobs package and $1.8 billion infrastructure program.</li>
</ul>
<ul>
<li>The quarterly ANZ/Property Council survey said Tasmania is about to experience a surge in foreign investment. It forecast that foreign investors would be responsible for 14% of residential purchases in Tasmania in the March 2016 Quarter, compared to 4% or below throughout the quarters of 2015. 
</li>
</ul>
The situation in Tasmania right now feels a little bit like 2003. Back then, after prices had surged in mainland cities like Melbourne, investors looked across Bass Strait, noticed how cheap everything was and generated a price boom.
Hobart currently has a median dwelling price around $330,000, compared to $600,000 in Melbourne and $775,000 in Sydney.
Cheap real estate, a market with rising momentum, underpinned by a strongly moving economy - it’s a package worth considering.
Terry Ryder is the founder of <a href="https://www.hotspotting.com.au/" target="_blank">hotspotting.com.au</a>. You can <a href="https://mailto:ryder@hotspotting.com.au" target="_blank">email him</a> or follow him on <a href="https://twitter.com/hotspotting" target="_blank">Twitter.</a>
</body></html>

terryryder-YECXbqmri2

Tasmanian property market worth considering: Terry Ryder

<html><body>
Tasmania is a fine example of the adage that it’s easy to get a bad reputation but very hard to lose it. 
The days of Tasmania being the basket case economy of Australia are gone, as are the days when investors steered clear of Hobart as a place offering no growth.
I’ve been advocating the merits of investing in Hobart for the past 18 months or so, based on the marked improvement in the state economy and the status of Hobart as the capital city with the lowest prices, tightest vacancies and highest rental yields.
Hotspotting’s regular research into sales activity has noted the rise in sales volumes in Hobart (and also in Launceston and Devonport) this year.
I’ve felt a bit like a voice in the wilderness, given that Hobart and Tasmania is a pretty hard sell. It’s very hard to shift entrenched attitudes, particularly as your average punter isn’t terribly well informed.
So how refreshing to see the latest research-based report from Simon Pressley of Propertyology. 
He says: “Hobart is Propertyology’s tip to be Australia’s <a href="/expert-insights/61966-hobart-to-be-australia-s-top-capital-city-performer-in-2017-simon-pressley" target="_blank">best-performed capital city property market in 2017</a>."
“An under-rated economy, limited properties for sale, the tightest vacancy rates in Australia, a more controlled housing supply pipeline than mainland cities, and increased buyer activity are expected to drive property prices and rents higher.
“We have been actively investing in Hobart for a while and our buyer’s agents have observed first-hand price growth of 8 to 10 per cent over the past 12 months. We can only see buyer activity further intensifying and forcing stronger growth over the next couple of years.”
And Pressley makes this forecast for next year: “On an all-things-being-equal basis, double-digit price growth is well and truly on the cards for Hobart in 2017.”
He says the significant retraction in properties listed for sale has made it increasingly difficult for our buyer’s agents to find suitable properties for investors. “Properties are generally selling within a week of listing and often going for prices well above our own appraisal range. The market is red hot.”
All this is happening on the back of improving economic performance. There is now a long list of reports from name brands which have noted the improvement in the underlying fundamentals.
The latest to confirm that view is CommSec’s State of the States report, which notes Tasmania’s population growth is the fastest in five years and the state no longer ranks last overall. 
“Tasmania has improved from 8th to 7th on the rankings,” it says. “Tasmania is 4th ranked on two indicators and 5th on three indicators. Annual growth on home lending is the strongest in the nation at 10.3%. Both home loans and home prices are lifting.”
State Treasurer Peter Gutwein says the report card is the best in five years. “But there is still a long way to go,” he says. He’s right, but a significant turnaround has been achieved already.
Another positive indicator for Tasmania is the level of infrastructure and construction work. The Deloitte Access Economics Investment Monitor report says: “The value of Tasmanian engineering projects under way has stayed well above $1 billion and there’s just under $1 billion worth of planned projects in the pipeline.”
The biggest under way is the $535 million Midland Hwy update. Work worth $239 million is ongoing on the freight rail revitalisation statewide and there is a $40 million extension of the Hobart Airport runway. The report says commercial building is also “coming along well,” with $1.5 billion worth of projects under way and a similar pipeline of planned work.
“The $689 million Royal Hobart Hospital project is still the largest project,” it says. “Planned work has been boosted, with University of Tasmania plans to move its science-technology-engineering building to Hobart’s CBD, at a cost of $400 million.”
The value of projects under way is up 27 percent to $2.9 billion. Adding planned projects, the total is $4.98 billion.
Tourism is big for Tasmania, with strong results for 2015-16. For the first time Tasmania had over one million interstate visitors, who spent $2 billion. Airline capacity rose by 173,658 new seats between the state’s two main airports and Melbourne, Sydney and Brisbane. TT-Line ran 33 extra day sailings over peak season, with visitors arriving on Spirit of Tasmania growing 17 percent.
In the 2015-16 summer, there were 59 cruise ship port calls in Tasmania — delivering 163,328 passengers and crew. Big growth in cruise ship visits is forecast for the next two seasons. The tourism industry supports 36,700 jobs or 15.3 percent of total jobs, and contributes $2.55 billion to the economy (10 percent of gross state product).
All of that provides a solid foundation on which real estate can continue to grow in Hobart, Launceston and Devonport.
Terry Ryder is the founder of <a href="https://www.hotspotting.com.au/" target="_blank">hotspotting.com.au</a>. You can <a href="https://mailto:ryder@hotspotting.com.au" target="_blank">email him</a> or follow him on <a href="https://twitter.com/hotspotting" target="_blank">Twitter.</a>
 
</body></html>

Solid foundations for real estate growth in Hobart, Launceston and Devonport

<html><body>
Most property-watchers are aware of the Tasmanian property boom, with attention focused on Hobart as the national leader for capital city price growth, for suburbs with the shortest time-on-market and for the nation’s lowest vacancy rates.
But there’s more to the Tassie story than Hobart. The second city Launceston is also thriving.
Launceston has seen good price growth in the last 12 months, with double-digit increases in the median house prices of several suburbs. This market also features vacancies below 2% and strong rental yields above 5.5%. 
And the future looks strong, starting with the underlying economy – always pivotal in the fortunes of property markets.
The Launceston City Deal, financially supported by all three levels of Government, has secured Launceston’s future as a “University Town”. 
Under the plan, Launceston will be the recipient of serious spending on infrastructure for industries such as education, construction, the Defence Force, transport and forestry. Launceston General Hospital is being upgraded, new industrial estates are emerging and new housing estates are opening up. 
In the 2016 Census, the population of Launceston was 81,000. Other reports suggest around 100,000 live in and around Launceston. 
It is one of Australia’s oldest cities and is home to many historic buildings, including the General Post Office. It’s the commercial hub for northern Tasmania’s agricultural and pastoral activities which, in recent years, have evolved from the growing of apples to viticulture. 
Wool is also an important industry while $130 million has been spent on the Meander Dam and irrigation infrastructure to support the agricultural sector. 
Launceston has a diverse range of industries, including manufacturing, minerals and resources, commercial shipping, tourism and educational facilities. 
Human pharmaceuticals manufacturing earns the region about $130 million each year. Tasmanian Alkaloids, located near Westbury, is the largest exporter of opiates from which codeine and morphine are derived. The company employs 200 local people. 
Premium beer drinkers will be familiar with the name James Boag. The Brewery employs around 150 and produces 76,000,000 litres of beer annually. 
Manufacturing makes the largest contribution to the local economy, earning over $1 billion per year. George Town Seafoods announced in April 2016 that it will double production at its processing facility. The business employs 70 people in peak production periods. 
The Bell Bay Aluminium smelter, about 45km from Launceston, is one of the state’s biggest employers claiming 1,500 direct and indirect jobs. 
Tourism employs 2,500 and is worth $340 million a year to the local economy. Around 1.29 million passengers used Launceston airport in 2015, and following a redevelopment completed in mid- 2016, the airport expects to cater for two million passengers each year by 2030. 
Numerous wineries operate along the Tamar Valley which produces about 40% of Tasmania’s premium wines. Another main attraction is Cataract Gorge, home to the longest single span chairlift in the world while Launceston is often called the ‘Garden City’ because of its many parklands. 
Launceston Airport offers regular flights to Melbourne (where travellers can connect with international flights), Sydney and Brisbane. 
Launceston is now one of the leading property markets in regional Australia, attracting mainland investors. The city features prominently in The Price Predictor Index published by hotspotting.com.au, as it has several suburbs with growing sales activity, while the nearby West Tamar LGA also has growth markets. 
Affordable Invermay (median house price $248,000) typifies the growth in this region, the number of annual sales leaping from 64 in 2017 to 99 early in 2018. 
The increased sales activity has delivered a median price rise of 8% in the last 12 months. 
On the other side of the North Esk River, the inner- city of Launceston has seen the median house price grow 23%, resulting in a median price of $449,000. 
The median house price in Newstead, another inner- city suburb with 121 annual sales, has risen 13% to $365,000, while Norwood is up 13% to $348,000. Further out, the median house price in Hadspen is $315,000 following a 14% rise in 12 months. 
Interstate buyers have become common, attracted by the state’s affordability, combined with positive developments in the city. 
Agents have reported that about 30% of buyers in Launceston hail from Sydney - and many intend to move to Launceston rather than buying for investment purposes. 
 
Terry Ryder is the founder of hotspotting.com.au
<a href="https://mailto:ryder@hotspotting.com.au">ryder@hotspotting.com.au</a>
twitter.com/hotspotting
</body></html>

More to Tasmania than Hobart as Launceston also thrives: Terry Ryder

<html><body>
The expiry of Tasmania's first home buyer incentives for purchasers of established dwellings in 2014 saw first home buyer demand decline, according to QBE’s latest housing report.
First home buyer demand in the state has since bottomed out and is now in a recovery phase, the report said.
Loans to first home buyers increased by an annual 6% in 2015/16 and the rising trend has been accelerating, with loans to first home buyers in June quarter 2016 being 24% higher than the same period a year earlier.
It is likely that some of this demand stems from increased interstate migration. In contrast, purchase activity by upgraders and downsizers has been easing, with loans to non–first home buyers having fallen by 4% in 2015/16.
Demand from investors has also been decreasing, with the total value of loans to investors having fallen by an annual 13% in 2015/16. As with the other states, tightened lending policy by the banks is containing investor demand, although the decline in 2015/16 has been lower than the national decline.
Rental growth has been largely flat and vacancy rates are close to balance at just under 3% through 2015/16.
House prices in Hobart were flat in 2014/15, but picked up in 2015/16, with the median house price increasing by 5.2%. Tasmania’s net interstate migration outflow has been steadily declining since peaking in 2011/12, and interstate migration is on track to record a net inflow in 2015/16.
Part of the driver of this recovery is likely to be increased “tree changers” downsizing from the more expensive mainland capitals, while there are also likely to be many returnees from the mining states who contributed to the higher net interstate migration outflows of recent years.
House price growth has been unevenly spread across the Local Government Areas of Hobart. Median house price growth has been particularly strong in Hobart (10.1%), Clarence (8.4%) and Kingborough (6.9%). Glenorchy (1.1%) and Brighton (2.8%) saw more moderate house price growth while Sorell (–3.3%) experienced a decline in its median house price. The overall Greater Hobart median grew 5.2% over 2015/16.
<a href="/images/2016/10/14/Table%2012.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<a href="/images/2016/10/14/Table%2012.jpg" target="_blank"><img src="/images/2016/10/14/Table%2012.jpg" alt=""></a>
The Tasmanian economy has been weak in recent years. A high Australian dollar and slow population growth have added to general economic weakness. However, improved household spending, non–residential building activity and improving exports suggest a stronger economic recovery.
The weakening Australian dollar should support growth in tourism while the agricultural and mining industries should also benefit. The state unemployment rate fell from 7.8% at March 2014 to 6.6% at March 2016. Greater Hobart has a lower unemployment rate than the rest of the state, having fallen from 6.7% to 6.1% over the same period.
Greater Hobart has also been the main destination for migrants from overseas, interstate and the rest of Tasmania, with its population rising by 0.8% in 2014/15 while the population of the rest of Tasmania was flat.
On the supply side, completions at the state level have continued to rise while underlying demand has been slow. This has seen Tasmania’s dwelling surplus climb from 4,800 dwellings to an estimated 5,300 dwellings at June 2016. Given the disparity between population growth, it is likely that the oversupply is greater in regional Tasmania.
Reflecting lower income levels and fewer drivers of employment, Hobart has the lowest median house price compared to the other state capitals. Its relative affordability compared to other capital cities is a significant driver of demand as interstate migrants seek a more affordable market.
The current low interest rate environment is expected to improve affordability and spur purchaser demand, the QBE report said. Poor affordability in Melbourne and Sydney is expected to fuel further migration to Tasmanian cities, a trend already evident with the net interstate inflow forecast to increase further to 1,000 persons in 2016/17 and 2017/18.
<a href="Click%20to%20open%20in%20new%20window">Click to open chart in new window</a>
<img src="/images/2016/10/14/Chart%2030.jpg" alt="">
Overall, the gradual recovery in the local economy and interstate migration is expected to underpin price growth, while the presence of an excess dwelling stock at the state level will likely limit price growth to more moderate levels. Hobart’s median house price is forecast to rise from $377,900 at June 2016 to $425,000 by June 2019, reflecting growth of around 4% per annum or a cumulative 12.5%.
With a significantly smaller unit market, and thus a smaller sample of sales volumes to measure the median, movement in the median unit price in Hobart can be much more volatile from quarter to quarter. Overall, however, median unit prices have been in a gradual decline since its peak median price of $420,000 in June 2011.
With falling investor demand, the unit market could experience the greatest impact as investor purchasers have traditionally been more prevalent buying units.
This softness is expected to continue to dampen demand, limiting median unit price growth to a forecast 1%–2% per annum through to 2018/19. This is forecast by QBE to push the median unit price to $315,000 at June 2019; a cumulative growth of 4.5% over the forecast period.
</body></html>

j.ballantyne1990-6AQqhLzZaK

Hobart first home buyers in recovery stage: QBE Housing Outlook

<html><body>
EXPERT OBSERVER
Hobart and Tasmania are national leaders on price growth – although analysis of the latest sales activity data suggests the market has passed its peak after two years of strong growth.
In terms of annual price growth, Tasmania remains the undisputed champion of Australia. Nine out of ten locations across the state have increased their median prices in the past year – and many of them have recorded double-digit growth.
Hotspotting has analysed house price data for 76 suburbs and towns in Tasmania: 69 of them (91%) have recorded growth in their median house prices in the past year. Of the 69 house markets with price growth, 56 have increased by more than 5%, including 35 which have risen 10% or more.
Only 9% of Tasmanian house markets have experienced decreases in median prices – and only one location has dropped by more than 5%.
In the Hobart metropolitan area, the suburbs of Austins Ferry, Chigwell, Gagebrok and Risdon Vale have all increased between 20% and 25% in the past 12 months.
In Launceston, price uplift has been led by East Launceston (17%), Newnham (12%), South Launceston (16%), Summerhill (12%) and West Launceston (12%). 
In other parts of regional Tasmania, Scottsdale and Upper Burnie have both recorded 15% rises in their median house prices.
There are also examples of exceptional growth in unit markets, where 81% of locations have rising prices.
Growth markets for apartments in Hobart include Bellerive (16%), Claremont (19%), Glenorchy (16%), New Town (18%) and West Moonah (20%) – but the highly-rated suburb of Lindisfarne is the standout, with its median apartment price rising 32% to $445,000, based on 45 sales in the past 12 months.
In Launceston, there have been 25-26% rises in median unit prices in Newnham and Prospect Vale.
Strong though those results are, they are a little less spectacular than our findings three months ago. In that previous report we said: “In Hobart, we can find no suburbs with falling prices and none with minor growth. All have increased by more than 5% in the past 12 months – and 80% of them are up at least 10%. A key feature is most have recorded rises in the latest quarter, which indicates prices are still growing.”
So the current data represents a strong result, indeed the strongest anywhere in Australia, but not as strong as three months ago. This confirms our overall conclusion that markets in Hobart and Tasmania have passed the peak in their cycles and are gradually winding down.
The strongest evidence of this comes from our analysis of quarterly sales activity. We have classified 16 locations as rising markets, the lowest number in any quarter since late in 2016. 
The rise of markets in Hobart, Launceston and other parts of Tasmania began with a steady uplift in sales activity early in 2017 and we have seen strong sales activity since then, leading to nation-leading price growth.
But now sales volumes are subsiding and the number of plateau markets across the state is the highest since we began our quarterly surveys five years ago. Indeed, the number of plateau markets in Tasmania, quarter-by-quarter in the past two years, has been 17, 30, 39, 39, 40, 43, 46 and 54 – a clear pattern showing the increase in the number of locations where sales activity has passed its peak.
There are still suburbs with growth markets (measured by sales volumes) in both Hobart and Launceston. In the Hobart metropolitan area, suburbs that still have growth momentum include Berriedale, Bridgewater, Rokeby, Sorell, Old Beach, Margate and Howrah.
In Launceston, the suburbs that still have forward momentum include Mowbray, Prospect and Newnham.
Elsewhere in the state, growth markets include Cygnet in the Huon Valley south of Hobart, George Town in the north of the state near Launceston, Longford in the Northern Midlands, and Smithton in the Circular Head LGA in the far north-west.
While all the recent evidence suggests Hobart and Tasmania are gradually winding down from the peak of the cycle, the key question is whether recent positive events at a national level (election result, APRA changes, lower interest rates, tax cuts, etc) will re-ignite the state’s mini-boom.
We’ll know more three months from now.
Terry Ryder is the founder of hotspotting.com.au
<a href="https://mailto:ryder@hotspotting.com.au">ryder@hotspotting.com.au</a>
twitter.com/hotspotting
</body></html>

Tasmania passes property market peak after two years of growth: Hotspotting's Terry Ryder

<html><body>
EXPERT OBSERVER
The mini-boom in Hobart and Tasmania is well past its peak in terms of buyer demand, but the state remains the nation’s top performer on price growth in the past year. 
The quarter-by-quarter analysis of sales activity conducted by Hotspotting shows there are few growth markets remaining in Tasmania and we are now seeing the emergence of declining markets for the first time.
Our past three quarterly surveys of sales activity have found that the number of locations with growth momentum has fallen from 23 to 16 to 9. 
The peak of the up-cycle in Tasmania, measured by sales activity, was late in 2017 and there has been a gradual wind-down in activity since then.
But now Tasmania has as many locations classified as declining markets (9) as there are rising markets.
Prices remain buoyant however, although a little less so than three months ago. Our location-by-location analysis of prices shows that 86% of Tasmanian locations have median prices higher than a year ago.
This is down from 91% three months ago, but remains easily the best outcome in the nation. Most of the locations with rising prices have recorded annual growth above 5% and indeed most have had double-digit increases. 
There are only 12 locations across the state of Tasmania with median prices lower than a year ago.
Launceston is the state’s strongest market: it still has three suburbs classified as rising markets – Mowbray, Newnham and South Launceston. Quarterly sales in Mowbray have been 21-23-29-34 and its median price is up 7% to $260,000.
There are 13 suburbs with steady sales performance (suburbs notable for their consistent sales performance include Youngtown, Riverside and Newstead) and none classified as declining markets. 
Suburbs with good annual growth in their median house prices include Newnham (8%), Newstead (11%), Ravenswood (13%) and several others which are up 6-7%.
In the suburb of Launceston, the median apartment price has risen 24% to $400,000 in the past year.
There are still some rising suburbs throughout the Hobert metro area – including Howrah, Margate, Rokeby and Sorell.
Howrah features in our National Top 50 list of Supercharged Suburbs in the Spring edition of The Price Predictor Index, with quarterly sales of 41-46-50-52-58. Its median house price is up 8% to $535,000 and its median apartment price has risen 12% to $415,000 in the past 12 months.
Generally, the Hobart metro area remains steady and suburbs like Moonah and West Hobart make our National Top 50 list of Consistent Suburbs in The Price Predictor Index.
Most locations have median prices well up on the levels of 12 months earlier. Locations with strong annual price growth include Austins Ferry (17%), Lauderdale (21%), Oakdowns (22%), Risdon Vale (18%) and Warrane (15%).
But the Hobart area now has locations classified as declining markets, including Chigwell, Gagebrook and Midway Point.
There are struggling markets elsewhere in the state, notably the West Coast where Queenstown, Zeehan and Rosebery remain classified as declining or danger markets. There’s also mounting evidence of decline in the Burnie market.
At the other end of the scale, regional towns with big price rises include Huonville (15%), Perth (14%), Smithton (23%), East Devonport (16%), Longford (12%) and George Town (12%).
In the Dorset LGA, both Scottsdale (17%) and Bridport (15%) have had strong growth in their median prices. 
Terry Ryder is the founder of hotspotting.com.au
<a href="https://mailto:ryder@hotspotting.com.au">ryder@hotspotting.com.au</a>
twitter.com/hotspotting
</body></html>

Tasmania

Editor's Picks

Have something to contribute?

Developments

New apartments

New townhouses

News

Tasmania

Editor's Picks

Receive the latest news stories to your inbox

Have something to contribute?

Developments

New apartments

New townhouses

News