Regional

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The top 20 locations in Australia for long-term capital growth are all regional locations.
That may surprise many people because the general theme in media is that the capital cities out-perform their regional markets. 
The misconception arises when research houses spit figures out of their computers and rush them off to media without providing any analysis of the realities behind the generalised figures.
A general figure describing growth in regional New South Wales will often produce a low growth figure because there are lots of mediocre small town markets, which drag down the average. The generalised number for regional Queensland will be low because there are numerous markets in decline, thanks to their links to the resources sector and/or developer oversupply. 
But the best individual towns often deliver higher long-term growth than the best of the capital city suburbs.
The latest Hotspotting survey for the Capital Growth Superstars report - examining long-term capital growth rates for every suburb and town in Australia - shows that, once again, the best growth rates are all regional.
The best of the capital cities are two suburbs of Darwin, Gray and Fannie Bay, which average 10.2% per year. But that’s barely good enough to make the Top 20 list for regional Australia.
The Top 20 regional locations have growth rates ranging from 10.2% to 20.7% per year.
Most of them are mining towns, resources regional centres or country towns boosted by recent resources activity. This is despite the sharp decline in prices in many resources-impacted towns over the past 2-3 years.
But the No.1 location in Australia for long-term capital growth is not a mining-related location. It’s the oddly-named Humpty Doo, a town of 6,000 about 40km from Darwin on the road to Kakadu National Park. It has a capital growth rate of 20.7% per year, largely because of growth generated by the outward sprawl of Darwin. 
Newman, an iron ore town in the Pilbara region of WA, is No.2 with a price growth average of 18% per year over the past decade. This is actually a significant drop on the town’s peak, about three years ago, when it averaged 30%-plus as the median price reached $780,000. It has dropped back to $685,000, according to the latest figures, but the growth rate is still the second best in the nation. 
Let’s be clear. I don’t advocate investing in mining towns or mining regional centres. They are just too volatile and too high risk. 
A few short years ago the iconic coal-mining town of Moranbah in Queensland had a long-term capital growth average above 30% per year. Back then its median price was $750,000. Today it’s $250,000 and the capital growth average for the past 10 years is now minus 0.2%. 
In other words, all that capital growth since 2005 has been wiped out and values are now lower than they were 10 years ago.
Moranbah is the most extreme boom-bust story I have encountered in Australian real estate, but there are other mining-impacted locations which have soared and are now very busy plummeting.
Port Hedland once had a median house price above $1.2 million and a capital growth rate close to 30% per year. Today the median is around $800,000 and the capital growth rate has dropped to 11.6%. 
That’s still good enough to rank No.10 in Australia and it means that if you bought there 10 years ago you’re still well in front. But if you bought there three years ago, you’re feeling a tad sick.
Despite the sharp decline in their markets in recent years, mining towns and resources regional centres still have the highest long-term capital growth rates in Australia – other than Humpty Doo. By comparison, the best of the capital city suburbs fade into insignificance.
<a href="/images/2015/07/09/ryder_chart.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="/images/2015/07/09/ryder_chart.jpg" alt="">
 
TERRY RYDER is the founder of <a href="https://www.hotspotting.com.au/" target="_blank">hotspotting.com.au</a>. You can <a href="https://mailto:ryder@hotspotting.com.au" target="_blank">email him</a> or follow him on <a href="https://twitter.com/hotspotting" target="_blank">Twitter.</a> 
Terry was recently joined by Property Observer editor at large Jonathan Chancellor for a webinar on why research is the key to successful property investing in 2015. You can download slides and audio from the webinar <a href="component/content/article?id=42796" target="_blank">here</a>.
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Regional areas offering long-term capital growth: Terry Ryder

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One of the emerging themes in real estate in the past couple of years is that when capital cities boom, regional towns just outside the metropolitan area often follow suit.
Sydney’s up-cycle has rippled out to locations in the Central Coast and in the Southern Highlands, and near-city Victorian towns have caught the wave from Melbourne’s strong market.
One of the standout performers has been Cardinia Shire, where strong population growth is driving property sales in the main towns. 
By 2036 the population of the shire, which sits just outside the Melbourne metropolitan area in the south-east, is expected to have almost doubled from 94,000 now to around 180,000. 
Cardinia Shire was named in the State Government’s growth strategy document as the potential site of Melbourne’s third airport. 
Cardinia has the advantage of being near the Port of Hastings and therefore has the potential to become a key player in a freight transport network. 
With a developer now proposing to build a $7 billion private airport, Cardinia’s prospects have lifted significantly, although this is a project with long-term horizons.
Offering a plentiful supply of houses priced under $450,000 and within commuting distance of major Melbourne employment nodes, Cardinia Shire is becoming increasingly worthy of consideration by property investors.
Cardinia Shire is becoming a popular lifestyle location as housing density in the inner- and middle-ring suburbs of Melbourne deepens. 
Several towns within the shire could be considered dormitory suburbs, as 54% of residents travel outside the municipality to work, according to Census data. 
The region is well serviced by transport. The Princes Highway cuts through the middle of the shire while the South Gippsland Highway runs along the southern edge, linking the area to the Melbourne CBD. 
There is the Pakenham line of the Melbourne metro train network which has stations at Beaconsfield, Officer, Cardinia Road and Pakenham, while V/Line trains also service a connection between Gippsland and Pakenham.
Being home to 47,000 in 2016, Pakenham is the most populous district within the Shire and up until 2014, it was the administrative centre of the Shire. Cardinia’s Council offices have now been relocated to Officer.
Pakenham remains the main retail centre for the shire, the most prominent shopping centre being Pakenham Central Marketplace.
Cardinia Shire has come to Hotspotting’s attention because of the rising sales activity in towns like Pakenham, Officer, Beaconsfield and Emerald.
Pakenham consistently sells over 250 homes per quarter, but two of the past three quarters have topped 300 sales. 
This strong sales activity has earned Pakenham a place in our National Top 50 suburbs nationwide for growth.
In the last 12 months, CoreLogic has recorded a 19% increase in Pakenham’s median house price which is now $470,000.
Population growth has been a driving force in Pakenham, prompting the development of several new residential estates. 
This is reflected in the increase of the number of building approvals from 1,241 in FY2014 to 1,938 in FY2017.
The Cardinia Road precinct in Officer is another site of projected population growth and extensive residential construction. 
The median house price in Officer is $485,000 based on 224 sales in the past 12 months, following a 34% increase (although the size of the rise could be misleading).
Towns which offer the best affordability, with median house prices between $380,000 and $450,000, include Bunyip, Lang Lang and Koo Wee Rup.
The Cardinia Shire can expect a substantial influx of new residents over the next 20 years. 
The biggest changes are predicted to occur in the Pakenham area, the Cardinia Road precinct and the Officer precinct.  
Terry Ryder is the founder of hotspotting.com.au
<a href="https://mailto:ryder@hotspotting.com.au" target="_blank">ryder@hotspotting.com.au</a>
twitter.com/hotspotting
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Cardinia Shire's population growth driving property sales: Terry Ryder

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EXPERT OBSERVER
Regional bridesmaid cities are beginning to rival the real estate brides of Sydney, Melbourne and Brisbane with their impressive population growth, buzzing local economies, improved amenities and infrastructure, affordable housing and increasingly attractive lifestyle as our capital cities get busier and more expensive.
No longer sleepy, second tier towns overshadowed by the glamorous capitals, many of Australia’s regional cities have come of age and are now thriving economic centres with hundreds of thousands of residents.
Housing has always been cheaper but regional areas now offer so much more, with burgeoning café scenes, major shopping centres, good local transport and plentiful job opportunities without the traffic, pollution, noise and time poverty that comes with big city life.
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Lifestyle markets and satellite cities within two hours’ commute of primary metropolitan areas are the biggest winners of the metro- regional switch. While affordability remains a key reason to move, many say buyers are increasingly talking about escaping from city stress, traffic and cost of living.
Population growth is no doubt contributing to the greater hustle and bustle of city life. Australia’s population hit 25 million in August 2018, 33 years earlier than forecast by the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) published in 1998.22 Given almost 80% of Australia’s residents live in the four East Coast capitals alone,23 it is not surprising that some of us are feeling a bit crammed in.
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With surprisingly comparable wages and a vast differential in house prices, the metro-regional trade-off is compelling.
Improved infrastructure has reduced the commute from many regional areas to capital cities, enabling switchers to enjoy a big city income with a relaxed small town lifestyle.
The NBN rollout has led to more city folk working remotely or establishing start-ups as part of their lifestyle change.
Jobs in the larger regional centres are increasingly plentiful, boosted by a deliberate strategy to decentralise government departments to regional locations. Bendigo is set to benefit from a new GovHub office that will bring 1,000 new and relocated public sector jobs to the CBD. Construction from 2019 will create 70 jobs, with completion due in late 2021. 
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Two other GovHubs are also being developed in Ballarat and Latrobe Valley.
Massive infrastructure investment across Australia is also boosting employment in regional centres.
After Geelong lost its Ford and Alcoa steel plants, the local jobs market rebounded following federal support for Geelong’s $100 million rail duplication project and a $100 million pledge for an Advanced Manufacturing Fund for Victoria and South Australia in 2017. 
In some cases, average wages in regional areas are higher than capital cities.
In Australia’s leading regional city for median house price growth,25Geelong in Victoria, individuals aged 15 and over received a median $616 weekly income in 2016, $84 more than their Melbourne peers despite higher living costs in the capital. 
ABS27 data also shows that middle aged blue collar workers, in particular, are more likely to be paid similarly or better in regional centres of New South Wales and Victoria.
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No longer sleepy, second tier towns overshadowed by the glamorous capitals, many of Australia’s regional cities have come of age and are now thriving economic centres with hundreds of thousands of residents.
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The Gold Coast seems to have magnetic appeal, as it was amongst the top 10 destinations chosen by city escapees in every single state and territory, attracting 19,400 people from the eight capitals.
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Large regional cities are currently some of the East Coast’s best performing property markets, largely due to the rippleeffect following Sydney and Melbourne’s peak.
Geelong, 70km south west of big sister Melbourne, recorded the largest increase in dwelling values across non-capital city Australia at 9.8% over the 12 months to April 2018,28 yet it remains more than $200,000 cheaper than Melbourne with a house price median of $505,000 compared to Melbourne’s $740,000.29
Shoalhaven/Southern Highlands was the strongest performing regional market in New South Wales with 9.2% growth,30 driven by demand from seachanging and treechanging downsizers and families.
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Fellow bridesmaid, Newcastle posted a 7.1% surge. Just 160km north of Sydney, Newcastle’s appeal to cash poor, asset rich Sydney residents is obvious. Australia’s largest coal port by volume and the economic hub of the Hunter Valley, it boasts a world class university, vibrant coastal lifestyle and strong employment with 37% of the population working in professional or managerial roles. 
Further north, Queensland’s top two regional performers were the Sunshine Coast (5.1%) and the Gold Coast (1.9%)33 due to rising demand from interstate home owners and investors. Increased tourism played its part, with 7.4 million interstate visitors holidaying there in 2017.34
It is now more expensive to buy a house on the Sunshine Coast, where the median is $589,000; and the Gold Coast with a median of $650,000 compared to Brisbane at $536,000.35
ABS data confirms big city home owners are seeing real value in regional real estate in Victoria, New South Wales and Queensland.
Tens of thousands of big smoke property owners opted to cash in their assets or upgrade their homes more affordably with a lifestyle switch from metro to regional areas in FY17. 
The top two locations chosen by Sydney escapees were Newcastle/ Lake Macquarie in the north (5,500 arrivals from Sydney) and Illawarra in the south (5,300 arrivals). Melbourne switchers favoured Latrobe-Gippsland (7,300 arrivals from Melbourne) and Geelong (6,900 arrivals).
Up north, Brisbane is yet to boom so there is no ripple effect in play, however there was still a significant migration away from the capital to large seachange destinations in FY17.
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Seven of the top 10 regions to benefit from departing Brisbane residents were Queensland centres, with beach cities topping the list. The Gold Coast, 70km south, gained 8,800 former Brisbane residents and the Sunshine Coast 6,700.
The Gold Coast seems to have magnetic appeal, as it was amongst the top 10 destinations chosen by city escapees in every single state and territory, attracting 19,400 people from the eight capitals.
Commonwealth Games infrastructure has brought major new liveability, employment and investment to the city, the light rail has improved accessibility and there are plenty of new sporting facilities for families.
City slickers’ exodus to treechange and seachange localities is evident in CoreLogic’s latest property sales analysis, which shows that dwelling values fell by -3.7% across the capital cities but rose by 1.2% across the combined regional markets in the 12 months to September. 
JOHN MCGRATH is the founder of McGrath Estate Agents. The latest McGrath Report is available <a href="https://www.mcgrath.com.au/mcgrath-report" target="_blank">here</a>.
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Regional is the new black: John McGrath

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The top three most expensive regional markets for median building lot prices in Australia during the March quarter are in New South Wales, Queensland and Western Australia.
The highest median lot price is in the Richmond-Tweed area of NSW at $280,000, the Kimberley in WA next at $270,000 and QLD's Sunshine Coast with $254,000, according to the HIA-CoreLogic RP Data Residential Land Report.
CoreLogic RP Data research director Tim Lawless said a current trend towards fewer land sales has been evident since mid-2013 and is visible across each of the capital city vacant land markets. 
<a href="/images/2015/07/20/Screen%20Shot%202015-07-20%20at%201.57.46%20PM.png" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="/images/2015/07/20/Screen%20Shot%202015-07-20%20at%201.57.46%20PM.png" alt="" width="907" height="526">
 
For the lowest March 2015 regional median lot prices, click <a href="/expert-insights/buying/44223-southern-tasmanian-march-lot-median-at-82-000-hia" target="_blank">here</a>.
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Northern NSW tops regional median building lot prices: HIA

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Geelong takes top spot with the highest weekly auction clearance rate in the nation's regional markets, according to CoreLogic’s latest weekly report.
Geelong had an auction clearance rate of 86% from the 22 auctions tracked by CoreLogic.
Meanwhile, the Sunshine Coast finished on the bottom of the chart with a 67.7% clearance rate from the 31 CoreLogic auction results. 
<a href="/images/2016/10/24/Regional%20sub%20regions.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
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This was followed by the Hunter with 80% and the Gold Coast with 70%.
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Sunshine Coast secures 67.7% auction clearance rate: CoreLogic

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There were 2300 first home buyers (FHBs) in March across NSW.
The average NSW FHB spends about $465,000 on their purchase, based on the commonly expected 20% deposit and ABS data showing a typical $387,000 NSW mortgage.
There is a lower $359,000 average mortgage in Victoria and $300,000 in Queensland.
The typical Australian first home buyer $342,000 mortgage is around 25% lower than the $462,000 non-first time owner occupier buyer's mortgage.
The ABS data also highlights the price gap between capital cities and the regions.
Sydney established detached house prices sit at around a $900,000 median, with houses in the rest of the state coming in at $466,000.
It is $700,000 for Sydney attached dwellings (terraces, semi and units) with the rest of NSW having a $405,000 median attached dwelling purchase price.
The gap is narrow in Queensland with established detached houses costing $530,000 in Brisbane against $430,000 in the rest of Queensland.
In Victoria, established Melbourne homes cost $705,000 slightly more than double the $350,000 in the rest of the state.
Prime Minister Scott Morrison's proposed deposit guarantee scheme will seek to pioneer a differential recognition of prices across the nation in deciding what priced homes will qualify.
It will have an as yet to be determined different cap on home purchases eligible for the scheme which will underwrite the topping up of buyers with just a 5% deposit who find lenders prepared to lend to them.
The current grants fully fund purchases up to $650,000, petering out on an $800,000 purchase.
The new scheme is likely to attract buyers to think about hiding to the regions and also into apartments in the city.
Urban Taskforce CEO Chris Johnson noted the average apartment in Sydney is likely going to be $400,000 cheaper than the average house.
"So many younger people, including families will see the benefits of a new type of living where they share large gardens, share swimming pools that they don’t have to maintain and often have child care centres next door.”
During March, first home buyers enjoyed the largest share in the Northern Territory, with 42% of owner occupier housing loans.
This was followed by Western Australia (36%), Victoria (30%) and Queensland (27%). 
FHB participation was lowest in Tasmania (20%), followed by South Australia (21%), the ACT (22%) and New South Wales (24%).
With more than 500 first home buyers over the past year, the 2170 Liverpool postcode retains its status as NSW's biggest beneficiary of government grants.
Over 11,000 Liverpool buyers have secured grants to get themselves onto the property ladder since the FHOG's commencement in 2000, introduced in the wake of the goods and services tax.
The outer ring south western buyers have secured $11.7 million in grants and concessions over the past year, and $213 million in the past 19 years.
The median Liverpool house price currently sits at $740,000, with its median unit price $440,000.
Westmead and Campbelltown follow as next busiest FHB hotspots.
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How will the price difference between capital cities and regions impact the new FHB policy?

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GUEST OBSERVER
Established migrant communities in regional and rural areas are often ignored in favour of policies focused on attracting new intakes of skilled migrants. A striking example is the <a href="http://www.devpolicy.org/pacific-farmworkers-in-australia-20180206/" target="_blank">substantial population of Pacific Islanders in horticultural areas in Australia</a>.
They are largely unacknowledged or even invisible to policymakers in Canberra. Their working-age children now struggle to move beyond the seasonal, precarious horticultural work their parents do. Appropriate supports could help them increase their skills and make a valuable contribution to the rural economy.
Since the mid-1990s, the Australian government has tried to tackle problems on two fronts – congestion in urban areas, and population decline and associated labour shortages in rural areas – through diverse migration schemes.
In March this year the Morrison government launched a <a href="https://www.pm.gov.au/media/plan-australias-future-population" target="_blank">plan for Australia’s future population</a>. It emphasised skilled migration as a means of “ensuring regional communities are given a much-needed boost”. The plan includes new regional visas for skilled workers and scholarships for domestic and international students to study in regional tertiary institutions.
A neglected community
The rhetoric around settling people in regional areas tends to neglect the untapped potential of migrant populations that already live there. <a href="https://www.latrobe.edu.au/social-inquiry/research/current-research-projects/pacific-islanders-in-regional-victoria-visitors-migrants-and-overstayers" target="_blank">Our research in the Sunraysia region</a> shows Pacific people have been largely trapped in seasonal farm work since they began moving there in the 1980s.
The government’s lack of acknowledgement of these established communities was evident in its planning and introduction of the <a href="https://www.jobs.gov.au/seasonal-worker-programme" target="_blank">Seasonal Worker Program</a>. Their potential to provide pastoral care for temporary workers from the Pacific islands was neglected. In both the <a href="https://docs.jobs.gov.au/system/files/doc/other/pswps_-_final_evaluation_report.pdf" target="_blank">2011 final evaluation of the Pacific Seasonal Worker Pilot Scheme</a> and the <a href="https://www.aph.gov.au/%7E/media/02%20Parliamentary%20Business/24%20Committees/244%20Joint%20Committees/Migration/Seasonal%20Worker%20Program/Report/Full%20report.pdf?la=en" target="_blank">2016 report of the parliamentary inquiry into the Seasonal Worker Program</a> this is seen as the responsibility of approved employers.
However, such “official” pastoral care is insufficient. We have found settled communities are supporting workers in getting health care and often provide them with food and other supplies.
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/276259/original/file-20190524-187179-1vjwm30.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=1000&amp;fit=clip"><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/276259/original/file-20190524-187179-1vjwm30.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=754&amp;fit=clip" alt=""></a>
Pacific people are active members of churches in regional Victoria and provide pastoral care to members of their community. Author provided
But the government has seen the settlers in negative terms, as potentially encouraging Pacific people employed through the Seasonal Worker Program to overstay their visas. This claim was made, for instance, in a 2016 call for expressions of interest in research for the <a href="https://www.cardno.com/projects/labour-mobility-assistance-program-lmap/" target="_blank">Labour Mobility Assistance Program</a>.
Rather than relying only on bringing in new waves of skilled migrants, <a href="https://theconversation.com/forcing-immigrants-to-work-in-regional-areas-will-not-boost-regional-economies-in-the-long-run-96852" target="_blank">most of whom stay for the required period then move to the cities</a>, why not focus on resolving structural problems and increasing the skills of those who already live there? This would mean tackling the barriers the local Pacific populations face, including their relative invisibility in regional communities.
In regional Australia, social services are directed mainly to new migrant and refugee arrivals, as well as Indigenous Australians. Some of our Pacific research participants said their communities’ needs remain largely unmet. A Tongan community leader we interviewed in Mildura raised two questions that prevent Pacific people from accessing support in Sunraysia: “Are you a refugee? Are you an Indigenous [person]?”
A high school principal echoed this point. She knew who to contact when she needed support for Koorie students or students from a “Muslim background”, but eligibility criteria often excluded Pacific youth from these services.
Many Pacific young people in Sunraysia express a strong desire to remain in their home towns, yet feel they face significant barriers to entering the workforce.
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/276256/original/file-20190524-187189-nv8hmg.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=1000&amp;fit=clip"><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/276256/original/file-20190524-187189-nv8hmg.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=754&amp;fit=clip" alt=""></a>
Pacific youth in Sunraysia who attended our workshop in 2017 brainstormed the advantages and disadvantages of living in regional and urban areas. Author provided
Their teachers confirm that Pacific youth are less likely to be considered for apprenticeships. They need targeted programs to ensure they get skills training that will broaden their employment opportunities.
Yet their <a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/https://www.abc.net.au/news/2014-05-14/an-pacific-islanders-missing-out-on-tertiary-education2c-study/5453382" target="_blank">rates of participation in TAFE and university are low</a>. This is partly due to their lack of knowledge about their options.
In a workshop with teachers they also told us some Pacific students come to high school with insufficient literacy and numeracy skills. Early support could have overcome this problem.
The problems are structural
Much of the debate about employment relies on the idea of individual empowerment, which assumes academic achievement leads to skilled work. However, <a href="https://theconversation.com/youth-unemployment-local-communities-essential-for-helping-young-people-find-work-56673" target="_blank">David Farrugia argues</a> that youth unemployment rates will not decline without overcoming structural problems in regional Australia.
An example of these problems in Sunraysia is that some local industries that give workers stable hourly rates <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2018/apr/02/pacific-workers-not-backpackers-should-do-australias-regional-work-world-bank" target="_blank">prefer to employ working holidaymakers or backpackers</a>. This leads migrants and second-generation youth to work in more precarious piece-rate farm jobs. The local advocacy body for employing settled workers told us the preference for working holidaymakers is linked to their connections with other industries such as accommodation providers that benefit from this transient population.
Despite being born and raised locally, and in many cases being Australian citizens, Pacific youth experience significant discrimination and marginalisation. Like their parents’ generation they are <a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/https://www.abc.net.au/radio-australia/programs/pacificbeat/pacific-islanders-in-rural-australia-struggling-to/8693102" target="_blank">stigmatised as “fruit pickers”</a>.
Many of them come to see farm work as the only option if they stay in the area. And even that is becoming increasingly precarious because they have to compete with temporary workers, such as those in the Seasonal Worker Program, working holidaymakers and irregular migrants.
Enabling the full participation of Pacific youth in more stable and skilled employment would contribute to the regional economy and improve social cohesion. But the policy focus is still on how to bring in new migrants. Population planning needs to have a long-term perspective and for regional areas a focus on the needs of the well-established migrant populations is crucial.
Dean Wickham, executive officer of <a href="http://www.smeccinc.org" target="_blank">Sunraysia Mallee Ethnic Communities Council</a>, contributed to our research project and writing this article.<img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/116277/count.gif?distributor=republish-lightbox-basic" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" style="border: none !important; box-shadow: none !important; margin: 0 !important; max-height: 1px !important; max-width: 1px !important; min-height: 1px !important; min-width: 1px !important; opacity: 0 !important; outline: none !important; padding: 0 !important; text-shadow: none !important;">
<a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/makiko-nishitani-435963" target="_blank">Makiko Nishitani</a>, Lecturer, <a href="http://theconversation.com/institutions/la-trobe-university-842" target="_blank">La Trobe University</a> and <a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/helen-lee-730364" target="_blank">Helen Lee</a>, Professor of Anthropology, <a href="http://theconversation.com/institutions/la-trobe-university-842" target="_blank">La Trobe University</a>
This article is republished from <a href="http://theconversation.com" target="_blank">The Conversation</a> under a Creative Commons license. Read the <a href="https://theconversation.com/the-forgotten-people-in-australias-regional-settlement-policy-are-pacific-islander-residents-116277" target="_blank">original article</a>.
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The forgotten people in Australia’s regional settlement policy are Pacific Islander residents

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GUEST OBSERVATION
The federal government wants to boost the number of migrants moving to regional areas in Australia to fill job vacancies and reduce the pressure on our cities.
That’s why the Minister for Immigration, Citizenship, Migrant Services and Multicultural Affairs, David Coleman, this week asked the Joint Standing Committee on Migration to look into and report on <a href="https://www.aph.gov.au/parliamentary_business/committees/joint/migration" target="_blank">migration in regional Australia</a>.
He’s called on anyone to make a submission by September 20 and the Committee intends to hit the road for a series of public hearings.
The <a href="https://www.aph.gov.au/Parliamentary_Business/Committees/Joint/Migration/RegionalMigration/Media_Releases" target="_blank">government says</a> only about one in five people who came to Australia between 2006 and 2011 settled in regional areas. So what are the challenges to encourage more migrants to settle in regional Australia?
Bush vs city
Australia is one of the most urbanised nations in the world with <a href="https://www.abs.gov.au/websitedbs/D3310114.nsf/home/Interesting+Facts+about+Australia%E2%80%99s+population" target="_blank">67% of the population living in capital cities</a>, with <a href="https://www.aph.gov.au/About_Parliament/Parliamentary_Departments/Parliamentary_Library/pubs/rp/rp1819/Quick_Guides/PopulationStatistics" target="_blank">migrants more urban than non-migrants</a>.
The two key issues for encouraging more migrants to regional areas are attraction and retention.
For skilled migrants this means <a href="https://www.news.com.au/finance/economy/federal-budget/immigration-cuts-and-regional-visas-to-ease-strain-on-sydney-and-melbourne/news-story/da7de88690966d4c202ab0d372a5b253" target="_blank">new visa pathways to regional settlement</a>. Two were announced earlier this year, the <a href="https://immi.homeaffairs.gov.au/what-we-do/regional-migration/news/new-regional-visas" target="_blank">Skilled Work Regional (Provisional) visa and the Skilled Employer Sponsored Regional (Provisional) visa</a>, both with a pathway to permanent residency at the end of three years. This is a big incentive, since permanent residency is the main goal of most temporary migrants.
Staying in the regions
The key factors that impact on retention of migrants who settle in regional and rural Australia are employment, children’s education, lifestyle, availability of services and the warmth of the welcome from locals.
<a href="https://web-tools.uts.edu.au/projects/detail.cfm?ProjectId=2006000310" target="_blank">Findings</a> from a national survey of 915 skilled migrants who settled in regional and rural Australia in 2008 found about two thirds liked their jobs.
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/288250/original/file-20190816-136186-1y815t6.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=754&amp;fit=clip" target="_blank">Click here</a> to enlarge: 
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/288250/original/file-20190816-136186-1y815t6.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=1000&amp;fit=clip"><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/288250/original/file-20190816-136186-1y815t6.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=754&amp;fit=clip" alt=""></a>
Job satisfaction of migrants. New immigrants in regional and rural Australia: attraction and retention, by Jock Collins and Branka Krivokapic-skoko (2008)/Rural and Regional Industries Research Council, Author provided
About two in three said the community had made them feel very welcome. The reputation of the Australian bush being populated with red necks who don’t like migrant newcomers is myth rather than reality.
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/288251/original/file-20190816-136230-1f0vpij.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=1000&amp;fit=clip" target="_blank">Click here</a> to enlarge: 
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/288251/original/file-20190816-136230-1f0vpij.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=1000&amp;fit=clip"><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/288251/original/file-20190816-136230-1f0vpij.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=754&amp;fit=clip" alt=""></a>
How welcome migrants feel. New immigrants in regional and rural Australia: attraction and retention, by Jock Collins and Branka Krivokapic-skoko (2008)/Rural and Regional Industries Research Council., Author provided
Most skilled migrants were satisfied with medical services, schools and entertainment available in their regional and rural community. Telecommunication services were rated less highly while transport services were a source of great dissatisfaction.
Regional refugee success
For refugees, their primary settlement location is decided by the Australian government. Regional cities such as Toowoomba and Logan in Queensland, Wagga Wagga, Wollongong and Coffs Harbour in New South Wales and Shepperton in Victoria have settled many refugees.
What does the research tell us about refugee migration to regional Australia? The classic success story is that of the <a href="https://www2.deloitte.com/au/en/pages/economics/articles/economic-social-impact-karen-resettlement" target="_blank">Karen people from Myanmar who settled in Nhill</a> in western Victoria, many of whom find <a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/https://www.abc.net.au/news/2015-04-24/study-reveals-refugees-boosting-nhill-economy/6417620" target="_blank">employment at the Luv a Duck factory</a>.
<a href="https://www.uts.edu.au/research-and-teaching/our-research/centre-business-and-social-innovation/research/projects-0" target="_blank">Research</a> was done in 2018 with 111 newly-arrived adult refugees from Syria, Iraq and Afghanistan who settled in Queensland regional cities of Toowoomba and Logan. It <a href="https://theconversation.com/refugees-are-integrating-just-fine-in-regional-australia-101188" target="_blank">found</a> most like living there, feel safe, feel the locals were very friendly towards them and that their children had a good future in Australia.
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/288252/original/file-20190816-136186-4jtvlu.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=1000&amp;fit=clip" target="_blank">Click here </a>to enlarge: 
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/288252/original/file-20190816-136186-4jtvlu.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=1000&amp;fit=clip"><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/288252/original/file-20190816-136186-4jtvlu.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=754&amp;fit=clip" alt=""></a>
The friendliness of locals according to migrants. <a class="source" href="https://www.uts.edu.au/research-and-teaching/our-research/centre-business-and-social-innovation/research/projects-0" target="_blank">Jock Collins and colleagues</a>, Author provided
Most refugees who flee their homeland to begin the risky and dangerous journey to Australia do so in order to provide a safe place for them and their family. They hope to settle in a good place to bring up their children.
The <a href="https://www.uts.edu.au/research-and-teaching/our-research/centre-business-and-social-innovation/research/projects-0" target="_blank">research found</a> the migrants feel their neighbourhoods in Brisbane, Toowoomba and Logan were good places to bring up children.
Nearly all adult refugees – and their children – feel very safe in regional and metropolitan Queensland. Incredibly all of those refugee adults living in Toowoomba feel it is a safe place to live.
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/288253/original/file-20190816-136213-1hyca37.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=1000&amp;fit=clip" target="_blank">Click here</a> to enlarge: 
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/288253/original/file-20190816-136213-1hyca37.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=1000&amp;fit=clip"><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/288253/original/file-20190816-136213-1hyca37.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=754&amp;fit=clip" alt=""></a>
How safe migrants felt their neighbourhood was. <a class="source" href="https://www.uts.edu.au/research-and-teaching/our-research/centre-business-and-social-innovation/research/projects-0" target="_blank">Jock Collins and colleagues</a>, Author provided
Getting a job
Employment is the real challenge for any attempt to redirect more refugees and skilled migrants to regional Australia. The critical issue for keeping refugees in regional cities such as Toowoomba and Logan is getting a job.
At first glance the research doesn’t seem too positive in this regard.
Only 13.8% of refugees in Logan and 13.2% in Toowoomba had been able to find a job in 2018. But most of these refugees had settled in the previous 12 months so most were still learning English and had not yet began looking work.
But these refugee families were also surveyed in 2019 and the improved employment results seem encouraging for refugee retention.
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/288255/original/file-20190816-136190-fo4nzb.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=1000&amp;fit=clip" target="_blank">Click here</a> to enlarge: 
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/288255/original/file-20190816-136190-fo4nzb.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=1000&amp;fit=clip"><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/288255/original/file-20190816-136190-fo4nzb.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=754&amp;fit=clip" alt=""></a>
Job prospects of migrants in Queensland. Jock Collins, Author provided
Overall the research supports the push for increasing skilled and humanitarian migration to regional Australia, with the proviso that more needs to be done on the employment front to encourage retention.
One policy that should be explored in this regard relates to <a href="https://www.lowyinstitute.org/publications/private-and-community-sector-initiatives-refugee-employment-and-entrepreneurship" target="_blank">migrant and refugee entrepreneurship</a>. Many refugees have experience in <a href="https://theconversation.com/how-refugees-overcome-the-odds-to-become-entrepreneurs-85091" target="_blank">running their own business</a> prior to settling in Australia.
Supporting them to establish a business in regional Australia by introducing proven programs such as Settlement Services International’s <a href="http://www.ssi.org.au/services/ignite" target="_blank">Ignite Small Business Start-ups</a> refugee program would assist them to create their own jobs and employment for others as well as revitalising the economy of the regional cities.
The biggest threat to increasing temporary migration to regional Australia is wage-theft and exploitative employment experiences. A <a href="https://www.smartcompany.com.au/business-advice/legal/wage-theft-regional-fwo/" target="_blank">recent intervention</a> by Fair Work Australia found that of 1,300 regional businesses visited by inspectors, one-in-five (22%) were found to be stealing wages from their workers.<img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/121942/count.gif?distributor=republish-lightbox-basic" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" style="border: none !important; box-shadow: none !important; margin: 0 !important; max-height: 1px !important; max-width: 1px !important; min-height: 1px !important; min-width: 1px !important; opacity: 0 !important; outline: none !important; padding: 0 !important; text-shadow: none !important;">
Jock Collins, Professor of Social Economics, UTS Business School, University of Technology Sydney.
This article is republished from <a href="http://theconversation.com" target="_blank">The Conversation</a> under a Creative Commons license. Read the <a href="https://theconversation.com/the-regions-can-take-more-migrants-and-refugees-with-a-little-help-121942" target="_blank">original article</a>.
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The regions can take more migrants and refugees, with a little help

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GUEST OBSERVATION
Governments are looking to fast rail services to regional cities to relieve population pressures in Sydney, Melbourne and Brisbane. The federal government is funding <a href="https://www.infrastructure.gov.au/rail/trains/faster_rail/index.aspx" target="_blank">nine business cases</a> for such schemes. But what economic effect might these fast links have on the regional cities?
The current fast rail schemes seem oriented at relieving population pressures in the major cities rather than a productive regional economic purpose. The minister for population, cities and urban infrastructure recently <a href="https://minister.infrastructure.gov.au/tudge/media-release/better-managing-australias-future-population-growth" target="_blank">stated</a>:
"The National Faster Rail Agency begins operating from today [July 1]. The new Agency will oversee the government’s 20-year fast rail agenda, which will connect satellite regional cities to our big capitals. This will allow people to reside in regional centres with its [sic] cheaper housing and regional lifestyle but still access easily and daily the major employment centres."
The argument seems built on a pitch to city workers priced out of metropolitan housing markets. It treats regional towns as remote dormitories for metropolitan workers rather than as regional cities that serve as service hubs and employment centres. But will subsidising metropolitan workers to live in cheaper regional towns have a positive economic effect on those towns?
An unequal relationship
Concern is growing among international observers that <a href="https://www.51m.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2013/08/ch51.pdf" target="_blank">fast rail connections between two cities benefit the larger of the pair</a>. Professor <a href="https://www.centreforcities.org/event/city-horizons-professor-michael-storper/" target="_blank">Michael Storper observed</a>: "One of the biggest mistakes we’ve made was being naïve about connectivity – give infrastructure and it spreads. Well, often it concentrates. The high-speed train network in France, guess what it did. It advantaged Paris."
While Paris is seen as benefiting the most from the national fast rail TGV service, the regional cities of <a href="http://www.greengauge21.net/wp-content/uploads/hsr-regneration-of-cities.pdf" target="_blank">Lyon and Lille have strengthened their economic positions</a>. The Lyon and Lille fast rail stations form the hub of their respective regional transport networks and have attracted new commercial activity. They also sit at intersections of major European fast rail networks.
It’s a pattern that cannot be easily achieved for Australia’s regional cities due to our widely dispersed settlements. So what does this mean for our regional cities?
Improving transport infrastructure doesn’t just improve regional business access to metropolitan markets. It decrease the costs of trade in both directions. And large cities are typically more productive economically. This is because they offer more specialised goods and services and can leverage the agglomeration effects of shared high-quality labour markets and infrastructure, plus a concentration of skills and knowledge.
Reduced travel times can mean regional businesses become less efficient than metropolitan competitors that can offer a wider range of specialist goods and services. This may lead to regional business closures, employment losses and wage decline. Unless a regional city is able to develop a specialised set of high-skill, high-wage industries that complement or outcompete the metropolis it risks being economically disadvantaged by faster rail.
New regional demand arising from commuter population growth might counter the loss of higher-order regional jobs due to improved transport links. But that will largely be in lower-value retail and personal service sectors. The result will still be a net economic gain for the metropolis.
An influx of commuters earning metropolitan wages might also <a href="https://www.news.com.au/finance/real-estate/melbourne-vic/geelong-prices-soften-as-buyers-await-outcome-of-federal-election/news-story/ea4cc61d089f669d26cf5b10b7ceab80" target="_blank">inflate regional housing markets</a>. This would disadvantage lower-paid regional workers. The beneficiaries of this scenario are likely to be local rentiers, such as landholders and developers who can profit from land-price inflation.
This interest group will likely vocally promote regional fast rail. But sustainable economic prosperity for regional cities requires more than population-driven land speculation.
The example of Geelong
The most advanced of the current Australian proposals is the <a href="https://minister.infrastructure.gov.au/tudge/media-release/geelong-melbourne-travel-cut-half-part-20-year-fast-rail-plan" target="_blank">Geelong-Melbourne route</a>. It has received federal and state <a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-03-22/fast-rail-train-service-pledge-for-geelong/10927982" target="_blank">funding for planning</a> with an estimated total cost of <a href="https://www.theage.com.au/politics/victoria/andrews-in-about-face-on-building-geelong-fast-rail-with-morrison-20190531-p51tbz" target="_blank">at least A$10 billion</a>. But planners need to ask how this spending will provide a net economic benefit, and how the benefits will be distributed.
Growth in commuter population and the services this attracts may be seem like a resolution to metropolitan population problems, but could further concentrate higher-paid jobs in Melbourne. Faster commutes mean Melbourne-based firms will have a greater pick of Geelong-based workers, thus consolidating metropolitan competitive advantage. Fast rail thus risks placing Geelong at a competitive disadvantage, with jobs and workers being exported to Melbourne.
Meanwhile the pressure of housing another <a href="https://www.planning.vic.gov.au/land-use-and-population-research/victoria-in-future" target="_blank">145,000 residents in the next 20 years</a> already falls on Geelong, a <a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/https://quickstats.censusdata.abs.gov.au/census_services/getproduct/census/2016/quickstat/203?opendocument" target="_blank">city of 280,000 people</a>. The strain on infrastructure and services is proportionately greater than would be the case in Melbourne, which has <a href="https://quickstats.censusdata.abs.gov.au/census_services/getproduct/census/2016/quickstat/2GMEL?opendocument" target="_blank">nearly 5 million</a> residents.
What can policymakers do about this?
To resolve this conundrum, thought must be given to what specialised high-value jobs will be attracted to regional cities to accompany fast rail investments, so these cities remain competitive and productive, regionally, nationally and internationally. This might include policies such as relocating public agencies, regional targeting of university-based research and development spending, boosting services such as schools and hospitals, and providing incentives for innovative private companies to relocate to regional towns.
Policymakers should also consider positioning regional cities as rail network hubs in their own right. An example would be connecting Geelong, Ballarat and Bendigo by rail, along with better linkages to national and international airports.
We don’t yet know for sure what the effects of fast rail on regional cities will be. But the impact of this infrastructure needs to be assessed very carefully lest it turns Australia’s regional cities into dependent population dormitories rather than regional dynamos, at vast public expense.<img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/119090/count.gif?distributor=republish-lightbox-basic" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" style="border: none !important; box-shadow: none !important; margin: 0 !important; max-height: 1px !important; max-width: 1px !important; min-height: 1px !important; min-width: 1px !important; opacity: 0 !important; outline: none !important; padding: 0 !important; text-shadow: none !important;">
Todd Denham, PhD Candidate, School of Global, Urban &amp; Social Studies, RMIT University
Jago Dodson, Professor of Urban Policy and Director, Centre for Urban Research, RMIT University
This article is republished from <a href="http://theconversation.com" target="_blank">The Conversation</a> under a Creative Commons license. Read the <a href="https://theconversation.com/regional-cities-beware-fast-rail-might-lead-to-disadvantaged-dormitories-not-booming-economies-119090" target="_blank">original article</a>.
Main photo: <a class="license" href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/" target="_blank">CC BY-NC</a>. 
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