Michael Matusik

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Well, more real estate baloney.
This time it is about first home buyers – or the lack of them.
The ABS statistics released today show that first home buyer activity, measured as the proportion of all owner-resident lending, is the lowest in 23 years.
You would have heard all about it on the news tonight or will read about in tomorrow’s papers.
But something is wrong here.
<blockquote>
The fact is, we should all question a lot more of the real estate data that is being fed to us.
</blockquote>
And like many things these days in the real estate world, it’s the figures that are incorrect.  The ‘official’ statistics are measuring only part of the whole, yet very few question the results.
In short, there is a hell of a lot of first home buying taking place.
Most first home buyers buy an established property, and in most places across Australia, first home buyer grants do not apply to established property, only new stock.  And where it does apply, it amounts to very little, and to many it isn’t worth the paper work.
So, for mine, the ABS (along with others) is not correctly corralling first home buying activity.
It is interesting to watch the property intelligentsia trying to explain the reasons for the fall in first home buyer interest, as shown in the first two charts below.
"Generation X are choosing to rent rather than buy – they are buying investment housing instead of homes for themselves – housing is unaffordable so they cannot buy – we need more grant monies"; and it goes on.
<a href="https://matusikmissive.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2014/06/FHB-1.jpg"><img class="alignnone size-full wp-image-7359" src="https://matusikmissive.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2014/06/FHB-1.jpg" alt="FHB #1"></a>
<a href="https://matusikmissive.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2014/06/FHB-2.jpg"><img class="alignnone size-full wp-image-7360" src="https://matusikmissive.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2014/06/FHB-2.jpg" alt="FHB #2"></a>
I think the statistics are wrong.
Why wouldn’t first home buyers be buying?
<ul>
<li>Interest rates are extremely low</li>
<li>Banks are keen to lend</li>
<li>Mum and dad are practically paying for the deposit to get rid of their ‘boomerang’ adult children (at 30, one wonders if ‘children’ should really apply)</li>
<li>Yet according to the same talking heads who claim low first home buyer take-up – housing affordability is the best in over a decade</li>
<li>And to prove that point, there has been little change in the size of the average first home loan in recent years – see my third chart below</li>
</ul>
<a href="https://matusikmissive.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2014/06/FHB-3.jpg"><img class="alignnone size-full wp-image-7361" src="https://matusikmissive.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2014/06/FHB-3.jpg" alt="FHB #3"></a>
Late last year the ABS put out a great study – sadly it comes out only every five years or so – called Housing Occupancy and Costs (catalogue number 4130.0 for those who want to read the 92 page document).  This shows that first home buyer activity is much higher than the housing finance loan data suggests.
The HOC study shows that over the past three (3) years (and importantly, covering much of the recent first home buyer slump) just short of 1 million households (988,000) bought a property across Australia.
Of the 988,000 transactions over the last three years, 36% or 355,000 were first home buyers.  Eight out of ten first home buyers (289,000 or 81%) bought a second-hand or established home.  Just 19% bought a new property or something off-plan.
My conversations with real estate agents, including those selling new stock, indicate that first home buyer activity is much higher than the low levels officially reported.
I suspect that first home buying activity is close to the historic average – something around 35% of the total owner-resident market and around 20% of the total housing market, when including investors.  This is what I am seeing on the ground; and it explains the strong sales results across much of the country over the last 12 to 18 months.
First home buyers must be taking part; otherwise those upgrading or downsizing would not be able to sell as fast or as often as they currently are.  It is first home buyers that make up a significant part of the buying audience for their established homes.
It is good to see that others, too, are starting to question the results.
I note that the RBA, in their current chart pack (June quarter), have left off first home buyers in the graph outlining loan activity across the country.  See the last chart on page 6 of <a href="https://www.rba.gov.au/chart-pack/index" target="_blank">this</a> document.  It has been included in previous RBA charts.
Michael Pascoe, too – thinking man that he is – has also questioned the results.  See <a href="https://www.smh.com.au/business/comment-and-analysis/first-home-buyer-statistics-not-adding-up-20140609-39sam" target="_blank">here</a>.
You should too.
The fact is, we should all question a lot more of the real estate data that is being fed to us.
The media – for the most part – aren’t interested in checking the statistics before they regurgitate them.
Much of what you read these days about property is sadly bunkum.
Ohh…….. and don’t get me started on the need for or accuracy of a daily price index or suburban median house/unit prices!
Visit Michael's <a href="https://www.matusik.com.au/" target="_blank">website</a>, read <a href="https://www.matusikmissive.com.au/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">his blog</a>, follow him on <a href="https://www.facebook.com/ThinkMatusik?fref=ts" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">Facebook</a> and <a href="https://www.twitter.com/michaelmatusik" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">Twitter</a>, or connect via <a href="https://www.linkedin.com/in/michaelmatusik" rel="nofollow">LinkedIn</a>.
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michaelmatusik-49YzLvdmNv

Have first home buyers really gone missing?

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Moody’s Analytics has announced that, given Australia’s current low interest rates, much of the country’s housing stock is at ‘fair value’ at present; with Victoria and NT already too expensive, yet Queensland, WA and SA being undervalued.
Sydney, amazingly – according to Moody’s – is just slightly overvalued.
<a href="https://matusikmissive.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2014/08/Over-Undervaluation-of-dwelling-prices.jpg"><img class="alignnone size-full wp-image-7562" src="https://matusikmissive.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2014/08/Over-Undervaluation-of-dwelling-prices.jpg" alt="Over Undervaluation of dwelling prices"></a>
And whilst this sounds like great news, Moody’s Analytics believes that Australia’s housing markets (with few exceptions) will become overvalued if (when) interest rates rise back to normal levels and push up mortgage repayments.
Moody’s estimates the ‘normal’ cash rate is 4.5%, being 2% higher than current levels.
But what is fair value?
How can an investor – as one could argue that for an owner-resident, value is largely an emotional thing – best determine a property’s value?
Rental returns
For mine, rental yields should really be used as the benchmark to help determine an investment property’s value.
And the 5% gross rental return – the old school marker which essentially converts to $1 in weekly rent for every $1,000 spent buying a property – is still the most accurate measure, in my opinion, to help determine investment value.
So for most investment property, when gross rental yields are under, say, 4.5%, they are overvalued.  The reverse applies for dwellings with gross rental returns over, say, 5.5%; assuming the rent is sustainable over the longer  term.
This approach, I think, should also be used much more by valuers rather than the wishy-washy comparisons made via the ValEx system or the like.
Some trends
Our <a href="https://matusikmissive.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2014/08/Matusik-Missive-5th-August-2014-How-best-to-determine-investment-value-final-full-version2.pdf" target="_blank">analysis</a> for this missive has found that:
<ul>
<li>In general, compact housing offers better investment rental returns than detached houses.</li>
</ul>
<ul>
<li>Sydney and Melbourne – for property investment – look overvalued to me.</li>
</ul>
<ul>
<li>In contrast, Brisbane and much of SEQ, for investment, look undervalued.</li>
</ul>
End notes
I have travelled a lot in recent weeks giving market outlook presentations to audiences of investors.  My travels have taken me to most capitals plus several regional towns.
Many with whom I have spoken seem confused.  Their heads are full of the latest property commentary.  Few seem to have a basic set of rules that help them to assess a property’s potential.
One of my presentation points is that investment value is best determined by rent.
I know it is basic stuff, but sometimes the simple things are often the best.
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How to determine fair investment value

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I like to take a helicopter view; a wider lens often shows the truer picture.
I find myself taking this stance more often – actually saying something like, “let’s take a step back for a second and take in the broader view” – the older I get.
And the Monocle Magazine has done just that.
Monocle has just issued its eighth annual Quality of Life Survey of the top 25 cities in the world and three Australian cities have made the cut.
Firstly, Monocle is well worth a read. The July/August issue is their 75th. Go to <a href="https://www.monocle.com/" target="_blank">www.monocle.com</a> to find out more. Their app is also worth downloading – fantastic podcasts about urban issues, among other things.
Ranking
According to Monocle the best cities in the world fall in this order:
<ol>
<li>Copenhagen</li>
<li>Tokyo</li>
<li>Melbourne</li>
<li>Stockholm</li>
<li>Helsinki</li>
<li>Vienna</li>
<li>Zurich</li>
<li>Munich</li>
<li>Kyoto</li>
<li>Fukuoka</li>
<li>Sydney</li>
<li>Auckland</li>
<li>Hong Kong</li>
<li>Berlin</li>
<li>Vancouver</li>
<li>Singapore</li>
<li>Madrid</li>
<li>Paris</li>
<li>Amsterdam</li>
<li>Hamburg</li>
<li>Barcelona</li>
<li>Lisbon</li>
<li>Portland, Oregon</li>
<li>Oslo</li>
<li>Brisbane</li>
</ol>
The Monocle survey seeks to measure the quality of cities in terms of the intangibles that light up their communities, as well as the infrastructure that supports them.
Important criteria include safety/crime; climate, medical care, public transport, tolerance, urban design, architecture, government policy, business conditions, and access to nature.
What they think about us
Melbourne
This year it is ranked third; last year second.  Melbourne has proved, says Monocle, that coffee and cricket aren’t the only things it does well.  Public transport upgrades, low crime, plus a compelling new weekend paper help to explain why the city has retained its top three ranking.
Melbourne’s cultural credentials are second to none – and the success of ‘Melbourne Now” – the largest exhibition in the history of the National Gallery of Victoria, has cemented the city as an art capital.
And it is home to a number of brands that have made Melbourne their first port of call in Australia.  As Monocle concludes: "Sydney may have the Harbour Bridge, but it still doesn’t have a Muji."
Sydney  
This year it ranked 11th; last year ninth.  Let’s face it, for many, Sydney is Australia.  It is the world’s most popular destination for international students.  Monocle calls it Australia’s face to the world – pretty, and architecturally outstanding, with breakthroughs like the North Bondi Surf Life Saving Club and One Central Park.
Downfall – public transport servicing Sydney’s suburbs.  Upside around the harbour – the $2 billion in planned infrastructure spending and ambitious vertical garden strategy that has already yielded 96,000 square metres of greenery.  
Brisbane 
This year it ranked 25th; last year, not ranked.  Here’s what Monocle has to say about the Sunshine City:
This year, Australia’s third-largest city steps out from behind the shadows of Melbourne and Sydney and into the spotlight, playing host to the G20 Leaders Summit.
Delegates will find a sun-drenched destination with a flourishing start-up scene; fine subtropical climate; and leafy parks which boast 906 council-operated barbeques.
The good stuff:  low cost of living compared to other Australian cities; a spacious inner city, which leads to an ease of doing business; an encouraging business environment; interesting cafes and thriving restaurants.
Downfall – Brisbane’s violent binge-drinking culture and the strict policing that comes with it.
What would Monocle fix?
<ul>
<li>
Melbourne: the state premier’s promise of a rail link to the airport should come sooner rather than later.
</li>
<li>
Sydney: pick up the pace on the long-awaited second airport.
</li>
<li>
Brisbane: create a livelier city centre similar to Melbourne, as it is pretty unexciting outside of business hours.
</li>
</ul>
Tolerance – around half of those Brisbane residents recently surveyed admitted to being anti-Muslim; while a quarter had anti-Aboriginal concerns.  Yet, the city is hugely multicultural, with a third Brisbane residents having been born overseas.
Public transport – an efficient network, but expensive.
IsBrisbane a libertarian paradise or stickler for rules?  Bit of a stickler, reports Monocle.
So what do others think?
Auspoll in Australia has also developed a subjective measure of city liveability for its MY City survey conducted for the Property Council of Australia last year.
A sample of residents from 11 different cities are surveyed on 17 attributes about liveability in their cities and their responses are combined into an overall liveability score.
My City Liveability Index
The latest My City study results are charted below.
<a href="https://matusikmissive.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2014/07/PCA-liveability-index.jpg"><img class="alignnone size-full wp-image-7511" src="https://matusikmissive.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2014/07/PCA-liveability-index.jpg" alt="PCA liveability index"></a>
Adelaide has consistently been rated the most liveable city, closely followed by Canberra.
Both Hobart and Newcastle ranked higher in 2012 than 2011 (third and fourth place), while Perth and Melbourne fell slightly in the rankings.  Sydney and Darwin were ranked as the least liveable cities.
Brisbane falls somewhere in the middle of the pack.
The most important of the 17 attributes that make up the liveability index were:
<ul>
<li>safety – a safe place for people and their property</li>
<li>cost of living – affordable for a good standard of living</li>
<li>health – good health care services</li>
<li>employment – good employment and economic opportunities</li>
<li>quality of the environment – clean city, well maintained and unpolluted 
</li>
</ul>
What do we think?
Well firstly, beauty is in the eye of the beholder.  What looks crappy to some is fantastic to others.
I have just been to several of the cities that the My City survey suggests are Australia’s most liveable and well, let me say….. I don’t get it.
But we agree with the My City results in that safety; cost of living; health; employment and quality of the environment are the most important aspects behind an area’s liveability.  And I dare say, a property market’s overall performance.
Too much commentary, and we are very guilty of this too, is about economic things; new infrastructure and the hard elements like transport systems.  It is very often the soft stuff that matters the most.
Also, it interesting to see how others have pigeon-holed us.
When it comes to Monocle and Brisbane, we don’t disagree – and particularly in view of the need to attract residents to the plethora of inner city apartment towers slated for Brisbane.
While there is a trend both in Australia and overseas to accept less private dwelling space in order live in a better location or place, the higher the density, the better the local amenity needs to be.
Or, as I often say – “density needs to be offset”.
The concept of trading “space for place” is incumbent upon an area being attractive and with a high degree of amenity and lifestyle offerings.
It is what Brisbane needs more of, and it’s a concept upon which our decision-makers and planners should focus.
Visit Michael's <a href="https://www.matusik.com.au/" target="_blank">website</a>, read <a href="https://www.matusikmissive.com.au/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">his blog</a>, follow him on <a href="https://www.facebook.com/ThinkMatusik?fref=ts" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">Facebook</a> and <a href="https://www.twitter.com/michaelmatusik" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">Twitter</a>, or connect via <a href="https://www.linkedin.com/in/michaelmatusik" rel="nofollow">LinkedIn</a>.
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Australia has three of the world's "most liveable" cities: What does this really say about us?

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The Gold Coast market has finally entered a recovery.
<a href="https://matusikmissive.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2014/05/Gold-Coast-area-image-for-missive.jpg"><img class="alignnone size-full wp-image-7281" src="https://matusikmissive.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2014/05/Gold-Coast-area-image-for-missive.jpg" alt="Gold Coast area - image for missive"></a>
This recovery started in earnest this year.  It followed a market correction and long stagnation period.  This ‘reset and rest’ was needed, as the Gold Coast had overheated in terms of price and even rents in the mid-to-late 2000s.  Property values on the Gold Coast appreciated in the order of 165% between 2001 and 2008.
What next?
This time around, values are expected to lift, but mildly in comparison.  Potentially, house values could rise by another 9% and attached property values by as much as 11%.  This takes into account the current low interest rate setting.
The Gold Coast’s current recovery and pending upturn is likely to be short in duration this cycle, with the market peaking in early 2016, depending on interest rate movements, local employment trends and dwelling supply.
Demand
One of the driving factors behind the Gold Coast property market and overall economy is its population growth.  The already high rate of population growth is expected to accelerate in the future.  Much of this growth is imported, from interstate and overseas.
<a href="https://matusikmissive.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2014/06/GC-Report-P.-12.jpg"><img class="alignnone size-full wp-image-7284" src="https://matusikmissive.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2014/06/GC-Report-P.-12.jpg" alt="GC Report P. 12"></a>
The Gold Coast also has a relatively young demographic profile, with the strongest demand over the next 10 years coming from young renters and first home buyers.
This will see the need for more affordable property.  This will likely fuel the need more townhouses plus one and two-bedroom apartments in low-to-midrise developments, mostly, away from the beach.
The size of the downsizing market is also quite large and this market, too, is looking towards smaller dwellings, but at affordable prices and in their local area.
Again, the key message here is affordable dwellings.  On average, Gold Coast households have limited income.  Increasingly detached housing is priced out of the majority’s reach.
What to buy
Investors should look to buy property priced largely under $400,000 for second-hand stock; under $500,000 for new apartments and house and land.  Property at these price points should be met with strong rental demand and should attract owner-resident buyer interest at presale.
Another big plus to the Gold Coast property cycle this time around is the undersupply of new stock and also the very tight local rental market.
Despite all the hoop-la about the Commonwealth Games, employment growth on the Gold Coast – or the general lack of it – remains a drag on the local economy and dwelling price growth.
Whilst speaking about jobs, investors should look to buy property in or within close proximity to the Gold Coast’s major employment nodes. These include Robina/Varsity Lakes and Southport/Benowa.
Moving forward
With already over 500,000 permanent residents; strong population growth, a young demographic profile and tight supply (at present), the Gold Coast property market is in its best shape for almost a decade.
We stress that the Gold Coast property play moving forward is more about jobs and buying what I call “capital city stock” rather than the traditional lifestyle coastal property. So beachfront, top-end, luxury homes or apartments might not make the best investment on the Gold Coast for the next cycle or two – the underlying demographics don’t really support such.
Our modelling suggests a growing need for more residential construction on the Gold Coast and this will further help increase employment. The city has a very strong future Property Pulse™ suggesting a growing demand for property in the region.  We stress, however, that until jobs and incomes improve on the Gold Coast, price growth, despite rising demand, will be constrained.
Final word
Now looks like a good time to buy a Gold Coast investment.  Prices should increase over the next 12 to 24 months.  Rents are rising.  But investors need to buy affordable, mainstream rental property, not lifestyle-orientated stock.
Visit Michael's <a href="https://www.matusik.com.au/" target="_blank">website</a>, read <a href="https://www.matusikmissive.com.au/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">his blog</a>, follow him on <a href="https://www.facebook.com/ThinkMatusik?fref=ts" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">Facebook</a> and <a href="https://www.twitter.com/michaelmatusik" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">Twitter</a>, or connect via <a href="https://www.linkedin.com/in/michaelmatusik" rel="nofollow">LinkedIn</a>.
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Now looks like a good time to buy a Gold Coast investment

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Several times in recent weeks the RBA has made statements about the price of Australia’s housing. 
The first was that overseas buying is having little impact on price; the second was that owners shouldn’t expect prices to rise every year and the third, that if price growth slows, then many would be better off renting.
With only one real tool now left in the tool box – i.e. interest rates – there is little that The Guv can do but jawbone. 
Nothing wrong with that – you, I and many others do it on a regular basis.  The difference is we don’t get front page coverage (well, you do sometimes) or a mention on the nightly news. 
Overseas buying
Well the RBA, in my view and according to our research, is wrong.  Somewhere between 25% and 50% of new attached residential property is being sold directly overseas.
We are about to release a series of apartment sales and performance reports – which cover buyer profiles and origins, along with resale plus rental results – and the recently settled projects have all got very high overseas buyer origins.
Also, having given over 60 market outlook presentations over the past 12 months, I can tell you that many in the audience – especially in Sydney and Melbourne – are recent migrants and they tell me during our one-on-one discussions, after the formalities are over, that they are buying for not only themselves, but friends and relatives currently living overseas.  Interestingly, many think that ownership gives their friends and relatives the right to occupy.
Despite the recent low interest rates, why is it this housing recovery has been quarantined (so far) largely to Sydney and Melbourne?  Little has happened over the past 18 to 24 months, outside of these two capitals.  Is it just coincidence that both Sydney and Melbourne attract the most overseas migration and direct overseas interest?  Come on, let’s get real. and the RBA have no control over this.
Price growth to slow
Once interest rates normalise (rise) then the housing market will slow.  But more importantly, ageing demographics, especially the contraction in the size of the upgrading market, will be a big drag on house spending.  Ditto persistently high unemployment and fewer full-time jobs being created. 
Annual price growth, say, post mid-2016 (when I think interest rates will rise, due to the Federal Reserve’s action rather than anything here), would at best be 5% per annum.  So, well under 2.5% in real terms.
Article continues on the next page. Please click below.
 
<hr class="system-pagebreak">
<a href="/expert-insights/finance/33365-ytcb-july-14-arfo-rba-pinpoints-the-wisdom-of-renting" target="_blank">Better off renting?</a>
Statistically yes, but only if households wisely invested the difference; the quality of the owner resident homes and rental properties in this country were the same and that pride, security and self-worth weren’t generated out of security of title and the ability to improve your lot.
It is amazing how a really boffin-ish academic study can get so much airplay.  But it does reiterate that the RBA expects less residential growth in the future.
I think more will rent in the decades to come, as many will be priced out of the ownership marketand/or don’t want to commit to the mortgage.  Ironically, we are likely to see fewer investors – well, first time investors mostly – as the past and easy property growth rate has gone.  It will take real skill and focus to buy the right investment product and even if investors buy wisely, gone are the days of double digit annual price growth, once this current upturn is over. 
What’s going on
Let me share some statistics with you:
<ul>
<li>
16,000 new jobs were created across Australia in June, but just 3,800 were full-time.  The unemployment rate is now at 6%.  Less wage growth is the result and about half of that experienced just five years ago.  Half of the new jobs created across Australia over the last year have been part-time.  This is now a growing trend.
</li>
<li>
Mining capex is in decline and has not (yet) been replaced by non-mining stuff – i.e. retail, tourism, gas projects, public transport and especially construction.  Things look increasingly encouraging in this space, especially with housing commencements finally starting to move upwards, but many of these new jobs will not pay as well as resource-related ones and a lot will be part-time.
</li>
<li>
94.9 is the current reading of the Westpac/Melbourne Institute index of consumer confidence – a reading above 100 signals optimism.  So, we are pessimistic. and it is more than just the federal budget or PUP and this Senate; we have been pessimistic for some time. I think many believe that Australia has been living ‘above its means’ for some time and that we need to do something about it,and now, rather than leaving it to our children/grandchildren to deal with.  This means having less.  Hard to do and such change usually zaps confidence.
</li>
<li>Investment housing loans are up over 20% on last year.</li>
</ul>
My reading is that the RBA is having a bet each way: rates to remain steady for some time, or if things continue to soften economically, then the cash rate will need to fall sometime over the next couple of months – down another 0.25%  – to help boost employment and help boost the non-mining capex industries along.
If rates do fall, this will add strength to the housing cycle, increasing prices above a sustainable growth path and level (they have already passed this point in many centres – seriously so in Sydney, Melbourne and to some degree Perth).
This collateral damage is the price we will be paying for having only one tool now to work with (we have no money left in the bank) and it is why the RBA is megaphoning about such housing matters now.
And sometime in the future – let’s say for now, in 18 or so months, the USA will start increasing their cost of funds. Why?  Because their economy will be improving and higher interest rates will be warranted. The world will have to follow suit, Australia included.
For mine, Australia’s housing markets are at a watershed – the future is much less generic price and even rental growth, real issues with affordability, acceptance of more compact and cheaper housing, plus the dire need for major changes to town-planning regulations and practice. Taxation on housing, new and established, will also need a major overhaul.
Fewer are likely to invest in property as a result; many will age in place; look to take in a tenant to help pay their way and where it is allowed, many owners will redevelop their homes – adding granny flats; creating duplexes; making extensions, but not for ‘pleasure’, rather for income generation and/or accommodating children at home for longer, or housing their ageing parents at home.
Sadly, the RBA isn’t megaphoning about this.
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Australia’s housing markets are at a watershed moment

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Gladstone has entered a downturn.
<a href="https://matusikmissive.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2014/06/Image.png"><img class="alignnone size-full wp-image-7346" src="https://matusikmissive.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2014/06/Image.png" alt="Image"></a>
Yesterday
The market peaked in 2012, with values, rents and new supply overshooting the local area’s property fundamentals.
Much of this overshoot was influenced by the need for workers for the construction of gas and coal-related infrastructure.
Also the area, about five years ago, was undersupplied with new stock. Exaggerated rents were being paid by energy and construction workers. Many were desperate to find accommodation, often at almost any cost.
This mismatch between supply and demand, in concert with the lacklustre outlook for the markets in South East Queensland post 2008, saw investment sellers oversell Gladstone’s potential.
New supply increased and future investment returns detached from reality.  A real estate bubble formed and a much needed correction has now taken place.  A rapid fall in weekly rents, and in many cases, prices and sales, has occurred over the last 12 months.
Many property commentators and investors – as a result – have written Gladstone off.
Today
That is premature, and shows a distinct misunderstanding of how a property cycle, especially in a regional city, works.
At today’s prices, the city has the potential for price growth in the short-to-medium term.  However, we believe that this is unlikely to happen over the next 12 to 24 months, given the current misconception of the Gladstone market and the area’s current oversupply.
Yet, now is a great time to buy investment property in Gladstone.
Prices are negotiable, rents are at the bottom of their cycle and sales volumes are likely to increase in coming years.  In addition, there is a lot of stock from which to choose.  Counter-cyclical investors, with the mindset to hold for a full cycle or more, should seriously look at Gladstone.
Tomorrow
<a href="https://matusikmissive.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2014/06/Gladstone-Page-12.jpg"><img class="alignnone size-full wp-image-7349" src="https://matusikmissive.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2014/06/Gladstone-Page-12.jpg" alt="Gladstone Page 12"></a>
Our mid-to-long term outlook for Gladstone is very positive – a rising Matusik Property Pulse™; strong population growth; high and growing underlying demand and the need for more rental property.
Job creation – despite what is reported – is improving and the area has a much lower unemployment rate when compared to the Queensland average.
Gladstone has a young demographic profile – this will drive the need for affordable homes and more attached property.
What to buy
Investors, for mine, need to buy close to the Gladstone CBD.  They are better off buying attached product or small-lot homes in prime locations.  In most cases, limit expenditure to $400,000 for second-hand stock and under $500,000 for a new property or off-plan purchase.
Up to $600,000 for high quality, furnished, downtown property is also worth considering.
Furnished apartments – again in the CBD – are likely to find a tenant more quickly than unfurnished product.
Final word
Price and rental growth will return to Gladstone, but this is likely to take some time.  Also, when it returns, the growth tangent is likely to be much less than what the region experienced between 2009 and 2012.
A 5% per annum growth rate is more realistic and sustainable.
Visit Michael's <a href="https://www.matusik.com.au/" target="_blank">website</a>, read <a href="https://www.matusikmissive.com.au/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">his blog</a>, follow him on <a href="https://www.facebook.com/ThinkMatusik?fref=ts" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">Facebook</a> and <a href="https://www.twitter.com/michaelmatusik" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">Twitter</a>, or connect via <a href="https://www.linkedin.com/in/michaelmatusik" rel="nofollow">LinkedIn</a>.
<a href="https://matusik.com.au/products/gladstone-market-outlook-report/" target="_blank">Go here</a> for the full Matusik Market Outlook Report on Gladstone.
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Gladstone in a downturn, but positive medium outlook means it could be a great opportunity for investors

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The song at this stage of the residential property cycle would normally sound something like this:
"Higher prices and price growth, coupled with lower rental returns in both Sydney and Melbourne will see more people move interstate to cheaper and sunnier South East Queensland.”
Well, that doesn’t seem to be happening. The more optimistic would end this sentence, with a ‘yet’.  But I wonder. Yes, investors are crossing the Tweed and the current level investor interest from the southern states reminds me of the early 2000s, but unlike back then, net interstate migration to Queensland still remains low, close to an all-time low in fact.  See our first chart below.
Our second chart shows that Victoria – yes, that old rust bucket – attracts more interstate action than Queensland these days.
<a href="https://matusikmissive.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2014/06/NET-INTERSTATE-MIGRATION-1.jpg"><img class="alignnone size-full wp-image-7443" src="https://matusikmissive.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2014/06/NET-INTERSTATE-MIGRATION-1.jpg" alt="NET INTERSTATE MIGRATION #1"></a>
<a href="https://matusikmissive.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2014/07/NET-INTERSTATE-MIGRATION-2.jpg"><img class="alignnone size-full wp-image-7444" src="https://matusikmissive.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2014/07/NET-INTERSTATE-MIGRATION-2.jpg" alt="NET INTERSTATE MIGRATION #2"></a>
So why are fewer people moving to Queensland?
<ul>
<li>Jobs</li>
</ul>
Most people move interstate for work.  Sure, many might like Queensland’s climate better, especially during winter/spring, but their primary motivation is work. 
Queensland is creating new jobs, but these aren’t really big paying positions, nor are that many full-time. 
It is more than just post-mining influence at work here; the overall ‘casualisation of work’ trend is having an impact.
<ul>
<li>Ageing demographics</li>
</ul>
As people age, they move less and when they move, they don’t move as far as they did when they were younger.They like to stay in the same neighbourhood if they can.  
Yes, they like to be closer to the kids and especially the grandchildren, but given the low cost of air travel, plus the vitality of our older folk (my parents are almost always travelling), they don’t see themselves as ‘baby sitters’ these days.
<ul>
<li>Stamp duties</li>
</ul>
One of the biggest killers of housing movements is stamp duties.  This cost – determined as a percentage of the end price – stops many local moves and a lot of interstate movements as well.
It should be a flat fee; the same for all residential property transactions regardless of location and be say, $1,000 per sale, and not the exorbitant amount that is currently incurred.
If you want free up our larger, underutilised homes and get downsizers/retirees into something more practical for them, then stamp duties must be reduced and dramatically so. 
Otherwise, these two market segments (which are about to grow <a href="https://matusikmissive.com.au/2014/06/03/housings-future/">substantially</a> in size) will age in place; and we will struggle to house, affordably, our younger generations.
<ul>
<li>Perception</li>
</ul>
I don’t care how many times the media try to project Brisbane/South East Queensland as having lost its “red neck” and somehow acquired, magically, a sophisticated aura; most of my interstate friends and relatives don’t buy it, nor do I.  I think we need to really think through what we are and the image we want to convey.  We shouldn’t be competing with Sydney, Melbourne or Perth; we need to find our own voice.
For example, I was in Toowoomba last week giving a presentation for the Chamber of Commerce, where a short promotional video was played outlining why someone should consider living in the Darling Downs.  It wasn’t “resources” this or “infrastructure” that, it was a <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pMQ9dPn7IA4&amp;feature=youtu.be" target="_blank">great clip</a> about a bushie and how he lived under a “big sky”.  It worked a treat – so much so that I nearly bought a Toowoomba house.
Anyway, for mine, Queensland needs to work on its image.  It seems lost if you ask me…and it is reducing the number of bums of seats.
Visit Michael's <a href="https://www.matusik.com.au/" target="_blank">website</a>, read <a href="https://www.matusikmissive.com.au/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">his blog</a>, follow him on <a href="https://www.facebook.com/ThinkMatusik?fref=ts" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">Facebook</a> and <a href="https://www.twitter.com/michaelmatusik" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">Twitter</a>, or connect via <a href="https://www.linkedin.com/in/michaelmatusik" rel="nofollow">LinkedIn</a>.
<a href="https://matusik.com.au/products/toowoomba-market-outlook-report/" target="_blank">Go here</a> for the full Matusik Market Outlook Report on Toowoomba.
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Why are fewer people moving to Queensland?

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Toowoomba has a lot going for it, real estate-wise.
<a href="https://matusikmissive.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2014/06/Picture3.png"><img class="alignnone size-full wp-image-7422" src="https://matusikmissive.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2014/06/Picture3.png" alt="Picture3"></a>
The good news
The city has just entered a residential recovery.  It is Australia’s largest non-capital inland city. It is the ‘service town’ of the Surat Basin, which is expected to become Australia’s largest energy province.
Yet the city has a diverse economic base and now, a secure water supply.  Toowoomba already holds significant regional infrastructure and several new projects have just been announced.
The challenges 
The city, however, does face some challenges.
The largest is its changing demographics.  Toowoomba’s age structure is polarised, on one hand a significant proportion of its population is aging, whilst on the other a younger buyer and rental group is emerging.
<blockquote>
Toowoomba’s age structure is polarised, on one hand a significant proportion of its population is aging, whilst on the other a younger buyer and rental group is emerging.
</blockquote>
Yet with this demographic shift comes opportunities.
Market recovery
The ingredients that characterise a market recovery are all in place in Toowoomba.
A major regional city
Few realise how big Toowoomba already is, holding 160,000 permanent residents, with its population expected to exceed 200,000 within the next two decades.
The City services a much bigger area, acting as the ‘hub’ for much of the production which occurs west of Brisbane.
In a typical year for example, over half of the trade moving through the Port of Brisbane travels to or emanates from the Toowoomba area. 
Matusik Property Pulse™
Our modelling suggests a growing need for more residential construction in Toowoomba.
This, in turn, will further help increase employment.
Bottom line 
We do expect prices and rents to increase, and maybe sharply, over the next 12 to 14 months as Toowoomba’s recovery gains momentum.
Investors today can anticipate some price growth.  Rents should continue to grow, and most likely strongly in Toowoomba into the future.
But demographics drive the property market and Toowoomba’s twin age peaks (young and old) mean that price growth post 2016 is likely to remain subdued.
Be careful not to pay too much.
Visit Michael's <a href="https://www.matusik.com.au/" target="_blank">website</a>, read <a href="https://www.matusikmissive.com.au/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">his blog</a>, follow him on <a href="https://www.facebook.com/ThinkMatusik?fref=ts" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">Facebook</a> and <a href="https://www.twitter.com/michaelmatusik" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">Twitter</a>, or connect via <a href="https://www.linkedin.com/in/michaelmatusik" rel="nofollow">LinkedIn</a>.
<a href="https://matusik.com.au/products/toowoomba-market-outlook-report/" target="_blank" style="line-height: 1.3em;">Go here</a> for the full Matusik Market Outlook Report on Toowoomba.
Photo courtesy of Alan Henderson/Flickr/<a href="https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/2.0/" target="_blank">Creative Commons</a>.
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Toowoomba's shifting demographics an opportunity for investors

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My usual property outlook presentation these days covers two main themes – cycle and structure.
The interplay between these two elements makes up the property market’s DNA.
I have written about the property cycle several times over the last 12 months and have also covered four of the main five ingredients that make-up the most important structural foundations supporting the Australia residential market. These four pillars include employment, wages, income and the cost/availability of money.
This will cover the most vital ingredient for mine, demographics.
Now I am not talking about population growth per se, but a deeper cut of the available statistics.
Also, I am not that interested in the past, but much more interested in the future.  I am talking about age forecasts.
We are lucky in Australia that the ABS, after each Census, recalibrates their age-related forecasts.  They did so late last year, with their estimates reaching out as far as 2100.  Now we won’t get that ahead of ourselves but we will have a look at what’s likely to happen over the next decade or so.
Housing demographics
I don’t really like generational segregation i.e. baby boomers; generation X and the like – I think they are too broad and don’t necessarily translate well when it comes to real estate action.
We instead break the market into seven segments:
<ul>
<li>
Children – aged up to 17 years.  Living mostly – one hopes – at home; and whilst not a direct influence on underlying demand, they are captured in the larger household sizes of first home buyers (3.3 people on average per dwelling) and the upgrading market (2.99 people per home).</li>
</ul>
<ul>
<li>
Young renters – 18 to 29 years.  Statistically, 77% of them rent, many rent apartments in our inner cities.</li>
</ul>
<ul>
<li>
First home buyers -30 to 44 years.  Yes, up to 44 years!  HECS, partnering later; parents as friends; travel; options galore – so yes, for many, it is not until their mid to even late 30s that they buy a home.  
</li>
</ul>
<ul>
<li>
Upgraders – 45 to 59 years.  Having children later means that many, even well into their 50s, still have teenage children at home.  With teenagers you want space – demand is highest for houses, with lots of bedrooms, a pool etc. 
</li>
</ul>
<ul>
<li>
Downsizers – 60 to 74 years.  Many want to move into something with a nexus to the ground; in a small project and if possible in their existing neighbourhood.  Living close to the grandchildren is also a strong locational consideration.</li>
</ul>
<ul>
<li>
Age-related care - over 85 years.  At this age – and it is mostly women who live this long – some form of assistance is often required.  But many who live to 85 years, the statistics show, can expect another ten years of life, so nursing homes (for the sake of labelling them) aren’t necessarily God’s waiting room these days.</li>
</ul>
Spending on housing peaks when people upgrade, and the money spent on housing, and the number of moves made, drops sharply once we are in our mid-to-late 50s.  See the chart below.
<a href="https://matusikmissive.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2014/06/housing-demo1.jpg"><img class="alignnone size-full wp-image-7294" src="https://matusikmissive.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2014/06/housing-demo1.jpg" alt="housing demo#1"></a>
Market outlook
Our second chart outlines underlying demand – the number of new properties needed per annum – by each housing segment over time.
<a href="https://matusikmissive.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2014/06/housing-demo-2.jpg"><img class="alignnone size-full wp-image-7296" src="https://matusikmissive.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2014/06/housing-demo-2.jpg" alt="housing demo #2"></a>
This chart suggests:
<ul>
<li>
Young renters – drop in market demand over the next 10 years.  My experience is that town planning is a decade behind the actual market and the willingness to approve downtown high-rise apartments in big blocks should have been done ten years ago, not now.  The demand for product is much smaller than many realise.  Well, that’s what the statistics are telling us.  And it is for that reason we aren’t advising on or advocating large scale downtown apartment projects these days.</li>
</ul>
<ul>
<li>
First home buyers – significant increase in demand.  Affordable housing is increasingly important, especially given the casualization of the Australian workforce.  Many may also remain renters out of choice or force.  But the potential demand is here.  More affordable product is the answer, not grants or handouts. 
</li>
</ul>
<ul>
<li>
Upgraders – a drop in demand.  This will slow down the momentum of the housing market in coming years, especially so once interest rates rise.  This is one of the reasons, we believe, why Australia’s housing market will contract post 2016.  
</li>
</ul>
<ul>
<li>
Downsizers – strong lift in underlying demand.  Many will opt to age in place, as the upgrading market that usually buys their property will not be large enough to consume this supply.  Also, many would sell if they could find smaller and affordable local digs.  The irony here is that this is the demographic that mostly protested against local infill development in the past.  However, some are reassessing this non-development stance.  First home buyers are another potential buyer group, but these larger houses will need to be retrofitted to allow shared accommodation to help first timers pay the mortgage.  This is the space in which town planners and urban decision makers need to spend more time, and not in ten years’ time! 
</li>
</ul>
<ul>
<li>
Retirement – a big shift too and more so in the 2020s.  Living in more compact housing suits this demographic – more travel; little maintenance and convenience.  Importantly, they like a limited number of neighbours; and they like their pets too.  Pet friendly developments are a must. 
</li>
</ul>
<ul>
<li>
Age-related care – little change, but post 2020 a massive shift upwards.  The ABS statistics suggest that during the 2030s, the largest single housing market is Australia – with the need to build close to 40,000 new dwellings per year – will be for those aged 85 or older.  It is little wonder that the likes of FKP and Eureka Group Holdings Limited are focusing on existing and future sites to cater for this pending demand.</li>
</ul>
Visit Michael's <a href="https://www.matusik.com.au/" target="_blank">website</a>, read <a href="https://www.matusikmissive.com.au/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">his blog</a>, follow him on <a href="https://www.facebook.com/ThinkMatusik?fref=ts" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">Facebook</a> and <a href="https://www.twitter.com/michaelmatusik" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">Twitter</a>, or connect via <a href="https://www.linkedin.com/in/michaelmatusik" rel="nofollow">LinkedIn</a>.
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Michael Matusik

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