Why are fewer people moving to Queensland?

The song at this stage of the residential property cycle would normally sound something like this:

"Higher prices and price growth, coupled with lower rental returns in both Sydney and Melbourne will see more people move interstate to cheaper and sunnier South East Queensland.”

Well, that doesn’t seem to be happening. The more optimistic would end this sentence, with a ‘yet’.  But I wonder. Yes, investors are crossing the Tweed and the current level investor interest from the southern states reminds me of the early 2000s, but unlike back then, net interstate migration to Queensland still remains low, close to an all-time low in fact.  See our first chart below.

Our second chart shows that Victoria – yes, that old rust bucket – attracts more interstate action than Queensland these days.

So why are fewer people moving to Queensland?

• Jobs

Most people move interstate for work.  Sure, many might like Queensland’s climate better, especially during winter/spring, but their primary motivation is work. 

Queensland is creating new jobs, but these aren’t really big paying positions, nor are that many full-time. 

It is more than just post-mining influence at work here; the overall ‘casualisation of work’ trend is having an impact.

• Ageing demographics

As people age, they move less and when they move, they don’t move as far as they did when they were younger.They like to stay in the same neighbourhood if they can. 

Yes, they like to be closer to the kids and especially the grandchildren, but given the low cost of air travel, plus the vitality of our older folk (my parents are almost always travelling), they don’t see themselves as ‘baby sitters’ these days.

• Stamp duties

One of the biggest killers of housing movements is stamp duties.  This cost – determined as a percentage of the end price – stops many local moves and a lot of interstate movements as well.

It should be a flat fee; the same for all residential property transactions regardless of location and be say, $1,000 per sale, and not the exorbitant amount that is currently incurred.

If you want free up our larger, underutilised homes and get downsizers/retirees into something more practical for them, then stamp duties must be reduced and dramatically so. 

Otherwise, these two market segments (which are about to grow substantially in size) will age in place; and we will struggle to house, affordably, our younger generations.

• Perception

I don’t care how many times the media try to project Brisbane/South East Queensland as having lost its “red neck” and somehow acquired, magically, a sophisticated aura; most of my interstate friends and relatives don’t buy it, nor do I.  I think we need to really think through what we are and the image we want to convey.  We shouldn’t be competing with Sydney, Melbourne or Perth; we need to find our own voice.

For example, I was in Toowoomba last week giving a presentation for the Chamber of Commerce, where a short promotional video was played outlining why someone should consider living in the Darling Downs.  It wasn’t “resources” this or “infrastructure” that, it was a great clip about a bushie and how he lived under a “big sky”.  It worked a treat – so much so that I nearly bought a Toowoomba house.

Anyway, for mine, Queensland needs to work on its image.  It seems lost if you ask me…and it is reducing the number of bums of seats.

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Go here for the full Matusik Market Outlook Report on Toowoomba.