Demographics

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The lower dollar continues to work away on Arrivals and Departure trends, with a further +1.8 per cent seasonally adjusted increase in the number of short term arrivals in November, and a -2.8 per cent decrease in the equivalent number of departures.  
The monthly ratio of short term departures this continues to decline, which will act as a twin boost for the domestic economy.
<img class="aligncenter img-responsive" src="https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-b73svb4ZFPU/VpUnsI93FyI/AAAAAAAAak0/7_yWcorhIAA/s640/A2.jpg" alt="" width="640" height="320">
The labour market is not presently strong enough to warrant the exceedingly high level of net permanent and long term immigration seen in 2013 of above 400,000.
The rolling annual figure is now seemingly getting set to stabilise – in November the rolling annual total ticked down slightly from 278,200 to 277,600, with the decline being felt most keenly in the resources states and the regions, as opposed to the largest capital cities.
 
<img class="aligncenter img-responsive" src="https://3.bp.blogspot.com/-O7WpgUtq3xE/VpUnsHJlouI/AAAAAAAAaks/zY07p-aR25M/s640/A1.jpg" alt="" width="640" height="322">
 
The most recent <a href="https://petewargent.blogspot.sg/2015/12/students-to-drive-population" target="_blank">forecasts</a> from the Department of Immigration &amp; Border Protection (DIBP) show that the population growth rebound for the remainder of this decade will be driven by international students rather than by immigrants on 457 or permanent resident visas.
<h4>RECORD CHINESE TOURISM</h4>
The annual number of short term arrivals into Australia surged to a new record high of 7.36 million in November.
There have been significant increases in the number of visitors from India (+19 per cent) and the United States (+9 per cent) over the past year, Americans doubtless encouraged by favourable shifts in the exchange rate.
There can no doubting the key trend here, however, which has been the vast +17 per cent increase in the number of visitors from China, Hong Kong and Taiwan to 1.36 million.
The pace and scale of the increase over the past decade has been breathtaking, as documented regularly on this blog.
 
<img class="aligncenter img-responsive" src="https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-7I2RT3jAbrU/VpUns-kh5eI/AAAAAAAAak4/zg5drP4jalk/s640/A4.jpg" alt="" width="640" height="328">
For the first time China alone accounted for more than 1 million visitors in the year to November, and make no mistake, Chinese tourists spend up big when they come to Australia.
<h4>STUDENTS</h4>
A record 3.38 million persons came to Australia for a holiday over the year, while for the first time this year more than 2 million cited there reason for journey as “visiting friends and relatives”, reflective of Australia’s status as a country built on immigration.
 
<img class="aligncenter img-responsive" src="https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-Z1Fex7hVrZI/VpUnsNsACqI/AAAAAAAAakw/40K-WQd6p_0/s640/A3.jpg" alt="" width="640" height="326">
 
The other key trend to watch this year is the explosion in the number of international students, not least because following a streamlining of the acceptance rules so many are expected to go on to become permanent residents on other visas.
This data series confirmed that the rolling annual number of education arrivals jumped by an unprecedented +71,200 or +18 per cent to 464,600 in the year to November.
 
<img class="aligncenter img-responsive" src="https://3.bp.blogspot.com/-ZSAHnIJp5Ec/VpUns7Fo29I/AAAAAAAAak8/Bhsg-ejlFSg/s640/A5.jpg" alt="" width="640" height="312">
 
Most students are projected to be accepted into the large capital cities.
Pete Wargent is the co-founder of AllenWargent property buyers (London, Sydney) and a best-selling author and blogger.
 
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How the dollar is driving demographic trends for property investors: Pete Wargent

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Singles earning an average income have been priced out of the property market from nearly all of Australia’s capital cities, a new report shows.
An analysis by financial comparison website RateCity.com.au shows that Hobart and Adelaide remain the last affordable capital cities for the nation's singles with a salary of $59,441 and $72,529 needed respectively to afford repayments on a 30-year mortgage (with a deposit of 20% at today's average variable rate of 4.74%). The industry rule that no more than 30 percent of a person’s income should go towards housing costs was applied to arrive at the figures.
The east coast remains the most unaffordable, with Sydney topping the list of tough markets for singles to crack. A person wanting to buy in the harbour city needs a six-figure salary of $137,556 to comfortably fund a mortgage on a median-priced house.
Someone looking to buy in Brisbane or Melbourne would require an $80,866 and $96,706 salary respectively to afford a median priced house, while in Canberra the salary needed would be $97,756.
According to Peter Arnold, data insights director at RateCity.com.au, the report raises further concerns that rising property prices across many cities in the country are forcing Australians out of the market. This could fundamentally impact the nation's demographics and service needs in the years ahead, he said.
“Our analysis reveals a reality that many young Australians are now living; the impossibility of affording a median-priced house on an average salary in most capital cities,” Arnold said.
“Without a partner or family member to share mortgage costs with, the numbers paint a grim picture for millennials, many of which may be squeezed out. Even as part of a couple, east coast property prices are out of reach for many Australians.”
“Many first home buyers, including young families, may find that they have to move away from careers in the CBD and the support of families to more affordable parts of Australia. This could have long-term effects on Australian society and bring with it challenges for the future in many areas, including transport and childcare.”
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Singles priced out of property market: RateCity research

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GUEST OBSERVATION
It’s Saturday morning in West Brunswick, a suburb in Melbourne’s inner north. From my bedroom window I can see a crowd gathering across the road for a house inspection.
The crowd swells to 60 or so people – couples, couples with school-aged children, couples with small babies and then there are small groups of young people, clearly looking for share housing. Surveying the scene I feel like I can predict who my new neighbours might be.
Or, at least I am fairly sure who they won’t be. This semi-renovated three bedroom house has been up for rent three times in the past three years. At $560 per week the rental price is steep, yet each house inspection has attracted crowds like this one. And each time my new neighbours have been couples with a small baby. Young single people did not get a look in.
This is hardly surprising. The scene played outside my bedroom window reflects broader trends. Landlords <a href="https://www.realestate.com.au/blog/finding-the-right-tenant/" target="_blank">want safe bets</a> – people who can pay the rent, withstand rent increases, won’t trash the property and may even improve it.
And in a tight housing market with national demand outstripping supply – especially at the low end of the <a href="https://www.treasury.gov.au/~/media/Treasury/Publications%20and%20Media/Publications/2012/NHSC/Downloads/PDF/housing_supply_affordability_report.ashx" target="_blank">affordability market</a> – and rental vacancy rates <a href="https://www.ahuri.edu.au/housing_information/review/evrev053" target="_blank">between 1% and 4%</a> in capital cities across Australia, most landlords can afford to be choosy.
Young people find it hard to compete, especially in some segments of the rental market. Recent evidence indicates that young people are more likely to be in precarious housing than other age cohorts. They are more likely to be in unaffordable housing, private rental or overcrowded households, and to have recently experienced a forced move. And compared with couples with children they are almost seven times more likely to dwell in housing that is in poor condition.
<a href="https://www.vichealth.vic.gov.au/~/media/ResourceCentre/PublicationsandResources/Health%20Inequalities/Precarious%20housing/Precarious_Housing_Full_FINAL_2August.ashx" target="_blank">Preliminary evidence</a> is also emerging that like other age groups, young people’s experience of precarious housing also impacts negatively on their health and well-being, especially their mental health.
It’s little wonder, then, that young people are leaving home later than previous generations, typically around 23 or 24, often returning to the family home multiple times following job loss, tenancy breakdown or other life crises, before they settle into <a href="https://aifs.org.au/institute/pubs/diversity/DiversityAndChange.pdf" target="_blank">fully independent adulthood</a>.
This social trend has real consequences: for family finances, parent-child relationships and the way young people themselves imagine their place in the world, their rights and responsibilities, as well as their sense of capability, agency and autonomy.
This trend is only likely to increase if the <a href="https://theconversation.com/young-people-are-now-on-the-edge-of-our-reconfigured-welfare-state-26697" target="_blank">proposed changes</a> to the Youth Allowance and Newstart proceed as outlined in the recent federal budget. In a policy first, 30 is defined as the upper age of youth. And young people who finish their education and are looking for jobs – or those who get a job and lose it – will not be entitled to Youth Allowance (up to to the age of 25) or Newstart Allowance (25 years and older) for six months.
On $207 for <a href="https://www.humanservices.gov.au/customer/enablers/centrelink/youth-allowance/payment-rates" target="_blank">Youth Allowance</a> (living away from home) per week or $255 <a href="https://www.humanservices.gov.au/customer/enablers/centrelink/newstart-allowance/payment-rates-for-newstart-allowance" target="_blank">Newstart Allowance</a>, combined with maximum payment of $63 in <a href="https://www.humanservices.gov.au/customer/services/centrelink/rent-assistance" target="_blank">Commonwealth Rent Assistance</a>, young people currently find it extremely difficult if not impossible to access and maintain affordable housing. This will quite simply be impossible if benefits are, as proposed, suspended for six months.
While difficult for those young people who enjoy the support of their families, it is almost impossible for those who lack such support. These are the 22,000 or more young people estimated to be homeless on census night – a figure recognised by the Australian Bureau of Statistics as an underestimation of the <a href="https://www.aihw.gov.au/WorkArea/DownloadAsset.aspx?id=60129545638" target="_blank">actual population</a>.
This lack of support extends to nearly 3,000 young people nationally who are exiting out-of-home care services. A range of evidence suggests that anywhere between 40-60% of these young people will be homeless within a year of leaving care. Currently, it is estimated that 43,000 young people are receiving the youth allowance and living away from home.
These young people, who typically aspire to nothing less than their home-based peers (a house, job, sense of belonging and money to make a life), are <a href="https://www.vichealth.vic.gov.au/~/media/ResourceCentre/PublicationsandResources/Health%20Inequalities/Precarious%20housing/Precarious_Housing_Full_FINAL_2August.ashx" target="_blank">multiply disadvantaged</a> in the housing market. Without the safety net provided by the family they risk free-falling into long-term poverty and disadvantage. Most have low levels of education, with over half in some studies recording their highest level of education as Year 11 or below. Of those who find their way to services, nearly 90% are unemployed or not in the labour force.
We know that these young people are <a href="https://www.bsl.org.au/Social-exclusion-monitor" target="_blank">three times more likely</a> to experience social exclusion. Also compared to full-time employees, unemployed people are around 15 times more likely to be in <a href="https://www.vichealth.vic.gov.au/~/media/ResourceCentre/PublicationsandResources/Health%20Inequalities/Precarious%20housing/Precarious_Housing_Full_FINAL_2August.ashx" target="_blank">unaffordable housing</a>.
Like other homeless populations, these young people have <a href="https://www.aihw.gov.au/WorkArea/DownloadAsset.aspx?id=60129545051">few other housing options</a>. Most do not qualify for public housing, and when they do many languish on long waiting lists for a housing tenure that is widely recognised by policymakers and young people themselves as unsuitable.
Once homeless, some – depending on what area are living in, be it metropolitan, rural or remote – may find temporary refuge for six to 12 weeks in crisis accommodation. Some of these – if they are lucky – may go on to government-funded transitional accommodation for up to 12 months. A tiny number, and arguably the luckiest of all, end up in youth foyers: housing that is combined with tailored education and employment support.
The rest, however, continue to live rough, couchsurf, or try to make a go of it in rooming houses with shared bathroom and kitchen facilities. Increasingly, some find themselves in unregistered rooming houses: ordinary houses in the suburbs in which unscrupulous landlords sublet bedrooms at a premium price. Here, disadvantage is concentrated and a culture of violence and conflict is common. These are hardly the places to build sustainable, independent lives.
With a generation at risk of being locked out of the housing market and a significant minority of these falling through the gaps of the rental market, the need for a national youth housing policy has never been more pressing.
Oh, I almost forgot. We have new neighbours across the road: a couple with a small baby.
Shelley Mallett is professorial fellow in social policy, School of Social and Political Sciences at <a href="https://www.unimelb.edu.au/" target="_blank" style="line-height: 1.3em;">University of Melbourne</a>.
Shelley Mallett has received ARC and AHURI funding in the past. She is general manager, Research &amp; Policy Centre at the Brotherhood of St Laurence.
This article was originally published on <a href="https://theconversation.com" target="_blank">The Conversation</a>.
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Crowded housing market gives youth little chance for independence

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One does not need to be Albert Einstein to see that for decades and decades the Australian real estate industry has been running blind – so it's very interesting to observe that now a cavalcade of seeing eye-dogs have been brought in to add some vision and clarity.
Having said that, there is plenty of work to do, and the Federal and State Governments will have to do plenty of the heavy lifting for a change. Again, the spotlight keeps shining away from the main accelerants that have seen investors not just entering the market but dominating it, coupled with overseas investors lunging at every off-the-plan sale that hits the market.
Australia simply does not have enough property to meet demand given our population keeps increasing at a growth rate of 1.7%. In the year to March 2014 the Australian population increased by 388,400 to reach 23.4 million.
Instead of continually slugging the taxpayers, overseas investors should be hit with a surcharge and the investors who prefer to keep their properties vacant should be hit with a Vacancy Tax.
The Senate Inquiry into overseas investors has shown glaring holes in how the Foreign Investment Review Board operates (or attempts to) with a staff of under 10 people. Again, this highlights that Australia does not even have a Housing Minister – so who then is taking responsibility and managing this?
Yes – it's reasonable to suggest that Australia is fast becoming a country of landlords and renters, although one needs to ask, had the Rudd Government implemented the recommendations from the Henry Tax Review, how would the Australian property landscape look today? We will never know – however, isn't it time we had this conversation again?
We have the David Murray Financial System Inquiry deadline now just over two months away and there is much speculation about how much they will recommend the banks keep in their piggy banks. How much capital should the banks hold in the event of a property market downturn to avoid the domino effect?
This week the worst kept secret was all but confirmed, where the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) and the Australian Prudential Regulation Authority have almost certainly agreed to introduce macro-prudential policies in an attempt to ease property prices.
It's a start. However; the measures will hardly put a dent in prices.
This article continues on the next page. Please click below.
 
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To really have a closer examination; look no further than the report filed last year by Saul Eslake: 50 Years of Housing Policy Failure.
In a nutshell, he writes that cynical politics had kept policies in place that made it harder for people to buy their first home.
"While political parties and governments profess to care about first home buyers, the reality is that in a typical year fewer than 100,000 people succeed in attaining home ownership for the first time; whereas there are some 5.8 million households (and over eight million people) who already own at least one property."
This week RP Data revealed that the number of properties listed for sale in all capital cities, excluding Perth, is 11.6% lower than in September 2013. So introducing macro-prudential policies will hardly affect investors who are borrowing against their existing property portfolios.
<img src="/images/2014/09/30/24-09-2014-9-34-41-AM.jpg" alt="">
Property investors have entered the market with "eyes-wide-open" given that just a few years ago they witnessed firsthand what happens to property prices when we inherited the Global Financial Crisis (GFC) – this is a long term investment. Many are taking a safer punt on property and have walked away from the share market (which has had a shocking run of late) to lock and load into bricks and mortar.
There will be major changes ahead for Australia's tax system where many of the changes will be made to the property taxation benefits that investors are currently taking full advantage of. It's a win-win for the property investors given with all new taxes they are generally retrospective so the investors will be working from a 100 base – history shows this very clearly.
 <img src="/images/2014/09/30/24-09-2014-1-30-26-PM.jpg" alt="">
On the assumption that eventually the GST will be increased to 15%. construction will slow down further, which is exactly what happened in Australia previously following the introduction of the GST.
The developers wear the GST so that it then comes off their respective bottom lines by significantly reducing their profit margins – GST on construction has been a dismal failure which clearly explains why construction is in decline.
So there is a lot of method to the present investor madness – where for those looking at this from a different perspective the vast majority are on a win-win property formula.
No doubt they will be smiling even more when the read a recent article in The Economist, Birth Right – Where to be born in 2013, where Australia was ranked second from the top.
 
 
 
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A broken system: investors are laughing all the way

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The Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) released its demographic data for the September 2014 quarter last week. The data showed that over the quarter, Australia’s population was recorded at 23.581 million persons having increased by 1.5% or 354,605 persons over the past year.
<img class="aligncenter size-full wp-image-4440" src="https://blog.corelogic.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2015/03/Chart-13.jpg" alt="Chart 1" width="500" height="184">
The increase in population over the past year was actually the lowest increase in national population over a year since the 12 months to December 2011. Looking at the components of the national population increase, natural increase (births minus deaths) accounted for a 150,721 person increase in population and net overseas migration contributed to a 203,884 person increase. 
The 150,721 person natural increase was the lowest annual increase since the 12 months to March 2007 while the additional 203,884 persons due to net overseas migration was the lowest since September 2011. As the first chart shows the sharp slowdown in net overseas migration in particular is having a big impact on the overall national rate of population growth.
<img class="aligncenter size-full wp-image-4441" src="https://blog.corelogic.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2015/03/Chart-22.jpg" alt="Chart 2" width="500" height="190">
Looking at population growth across the states, the annual increase in population was greatest in New South Wales (106,365), Victoria (102,021), Queensland (69,423) and Western Australia (53,691). Annual population growth was much lower over the year in South Australia (14,303), Australian Capital Territory (4,403), Northern Territory 2,765) and Tasmania (1,602). Over the past year, 58.8% of total population growth occurred in NSW and Vic. 
If you add Qld and WA, those four states account for 93.5% of total national population growth. In terms of the rate of annual population growth, it is currently strongest in WA (2.1%), Vic (1.8%), Qld (1.5%) and NSW (1.4%). Elsewhere, the rate of annual population increase was recorded at 0.9% in SA, 0.3% in Tas, 1.1% in NT and 1.2% in ACT.
Although the population of each state is continuing to grow, the rate of growth has slowed across the board.
 In NSW the annual increase in population was the lowest since June 2013, in Vic it was the lowest since March 2013, in Qld it was its lowest since September 2001 and in WA it was at its lowest level since September 2010. 
Across the remaining states and territories the rate of population growth in SA was its lowest since September 2011, in Tas it was its lowest since March 2014, in NT it was higher than the previous quarter but lower over the year and in ACT it was at its lowest level since September 2006.
If we look at the components of population growth at the state level we get even further insight into the trends taking place. 
<img class="aligncenter size-full wp-image-4442" src="https://blog.corelogic.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2015/03/Chart-32.jpg" alt="Chart 3" width="500" height="182">
Natural increase is basically a function of the overall population size and as a result natural increase is much greater within the largest states. Over the 12 months to September 2014, the natural increase was recorded at 43,069 persons in NSW, 36,794 in Vic, 34,603 in Qld, 6,932 persons in SA, 21,210 persons in WA, 1,503 persons in Tas, 2,882 persons in NT and 3,706 persons in ACT.
<img class="aligncenter size-full wp-image-4443" src="https://blog.corelogic.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2015/03/Chart-42.jpg" alt="Chart 4" width="500" height="183">
Turning to net overseas migration, overseas migrants are finding NSW and Vic the most attractive states in which to settle. Over the 12 months to September 2014, 62.0% of the net gain from overseas migration was recorded in NSW and Vic. Across the individual states the net overseas migration was greatest in NSW (69,601), Vic (56,772), WA (32,190) and Qld (28,878). Across the remaining states and territories net overseas migration was recorded at: 10,304 in SA, 1,065 in Tas, 3,266 in NT and 1,798 in ACT. NSW and Vic have always attracted the greatest number of overseas migrants however, as the chart shows the gap has widened significantly over recent quarters.
<img class="aligncenter size-full wp-image-4444" src="https://blog.corelogic.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2015/03/Chart-52.jpg" alt="Chart 5" width="500" height="182">
The profile of interstate migration has also changed significantly over recent years. Qld has historically been the powerhouse in terms of interstate migration however, Vic has now taken that mantle. Over the 12 months to September 2014 only Vic (8,455), Qld (5,942) and WA (291) recorded positive net interstate migration. On the flipside, each of NSW (-6,305), SA (-2,933), Tas (-966), NT (-3,383) and ACT (-1,101) recorded a net loss of residents to the other three states. This data set is published from 1981 onwards and over that time NSW has always recorded a net loss of residents to other states and territories however, the outflow is currently at a record low. In Vic, the inflow eased slightly from a record high over the previous quarter. Across the other states and territories, Qld net interstate migration is hovering around the lowest level on record, WA interstate migration is at its lowest level since September 2003 and the outflow of residents to other states and territories in NT is at a record high.
The data highlights an overall slowing of the rate of population growth which will undoubtedly have an impact on the wider economy. Economic growth is slower than it has typically been over the past 2 decades and is extremely weak on a per capita basis, lower population growth may exacerbate the slowing of economic growth. Dwelling approvals and construction are at record high levels, as we know over the past decade there hasn’t been an ample supply of new housing. The heightened level of construction will go some way to alleviating housing shortages however, it would take a number of years of heightened construction to totally rectify the shortage.
Looking at the data, the rate of population growth has slowed and the fall has been most noticeable across net overseas migration. Those migrants who are coming to Australia are favouring settling in NSW (Sydney) and Vic (Melbourne). This is creating further demand for housing in these cities, so too is the fact that Vic now has the highest net interstate migration of any state and the outflow of residents from NSW is at a record low level. 
Given this, it is easy to see the impact demographics are having on the housing markets and why Sydney and Melbourne are seeing much greater housing demand and housing value growth. Fewer people are leaving those cities, more people are coming from interstate and most coming from overseas are choosing to settle in our two largest cities. On the other hand population growth has slowed significantly in other capital cities, fewer residents are leaving NSW and Vic to settle in these states and territories and they are attracting fewer overseas migrants.
With population growth now showing a consistent slowdown since the end of 2012 and new housing supply showing a consistent increase since late 2011, the gap between housing supply and demand has significantly narrowed. It is reasonable to assume that higher supply levels and lower housing demand will eventually dampen the exuberant housing market conditions that are so evident in Sydney and to a lesser extent in Melbourne. It is important to note that to-date the supply-side response has been nowhere near as strong in Sydney as it has been across most other capital cities.
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The rate of population growth remains strong but continues to slow: Cameron Kusher

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A new report  by the ARC Centre of Excellence in Population Ageing Research (CEPAR), investigating the links between home ownership and population ageing, has found that delays in home purchase are broadly consistent with other social and demographic trends.
While younger people are less likely to commit to buying a home than they were in the past, this “makes sense given that lives have become longer and people are settling down at older ages”, according to the report’s lead author Rafal Chomik, a CEPAR senior research fellow at UNSW Sydney.  
“To give some examples, over the past 50 years the median age of home purchase has increased by six years, from age 27 to 33. Over the same period, the median age of getting a first job has increased by two years; finishing education has been delayed by five years; having a child has been delayed by seven years; and getting married is now taking place eight years later. In fact, the median age at death is now 12 years later, adding scope for people to catch up and purchase a house later in life,” he said.
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2019/11/18/graph%20.png" alt="">
“This is not to say that affordability and access to housing finance are not important. But the trend toward home purchase delay takes on a new complexion when placed in a broader demographic context,” Chomik added.
In a wide-ranging analysis of the links between housing and demographic ageing, the report, ‘Housing in an ageing Australia: Nest and nest egg?’ concludes that those at greatest disadvantage in retirement are renters. It reports on CEPAR estimates that indicate that relative poverty rates in this group are among the highest in the OECD.
“Home ownership serves multiple purposes and housing outcomes affect financial and personal health and well being over the lifecycle. It acts as a home – the nest – as well as a store of wealth – the nest egg – to guarantee financial security in retirement,” said Chomik.
“As lifespans increase and Australia’s population ages, it is important to understand the interactions between demography and housing.”
Centre Director John Piggott, Scientia Professor of Economics at UNSW Business School, said the research brief, which features and synthesizes research outcomes from more than 20 CEPAR researchers, was timely. It helped crystallise the role of housing in broader policies directed towards social support over the life course.
“Housing has long been a critical pillar in wellbeing and social support through the life course,” he said.
“One way or another, it has always been a central piece of our social support system. It is at least arguable that our social protection system has relied on a high owner-occupier ratio in order to function sustainably and adequately.”
Postponement of home purchase can have consequences
With the Australian retirement system built on the premise of home ownership, excessive or indefinite deferral of home purchase can have consequences.
“Lifetime home ownership rates will decline if some people postpone purchasing a home indefinitely,” said Chomik.
“Banks may be reluctant to lend past a certain age given retirement ages are increasing more slowly. Greater shares may retire with debt. In the report, we look at how ready Australia is for the population purchasing homes at later ages, or not at all, and provide an overview of evidence-based research in this area.
“There is the potential that in the future more older people end up renting, and if so, we need a safety net to support them as the current retirement income system is failing renters.
“Currently, the Age Pension offers the same maximum benefit for owners as it does for renters. The Government’s retirement income system review, due to report next year, is an opportunity to take housing into account more fully with the aim of narrowing the financial gap between renters and owners in the future.”
Older renters continue to experience significant vulnerabilities
The report outlines some of the challenges associated with people postponing their home purchase indefinitely and looks at how it may lead to vulnerabilities at older ages, including relative poverty, housing affordability stress, and, in the extreme case, homelessness.
New estimates, that take account of housing, suggest that older Australian renters have among the highest relative poverty rates in the OECD. They also have greater rental affordability stress than other age groups. While increases in measured homelessness among older women were due to greater numbers in this age group rather than higher incidence, their increased use of homelessness services was disproportionate.
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2019/11/18/graph%202.png" alt="">
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Home ownership being delayed longer as population ages: CEPAR report 

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GUEST OBSERVATION
Are we letting too many or too few migrants into Australia?
For 2019-20 the Australian government <a href="https://immi.homeaffairs.gov.au/what-we-do/migration-program-planning-levels" target="_blank">has cut</a> the annual net migrant intake from 190,000 to 160,000. It’s a political decision, balancing the concerns of those who want much lower or higher immigration levels for a mix of social, environmental and economic reasons.
It’s an unsatisfactory and ad-hoc balancing act. Could there be more “science” in these decisions?
We’ve sought to come up with an evidence-based method to gauge the effects of migration. To do so we’ve used the internationally accepted framework for development planning, the <a href="https://www.un.org/sustainabledevelopment/sustainable-development-goals/" target="_blank">Sustainable Development Goals</a>. The goals cover major aspects of economic, social and environmental well-being, from decent jobs and quality education to good health and clean water.
We investigated three population scenarios: one similar to Australia’s recent annual level of net migration (about 200,000 a year); one much lower (about 70,000 a year); and one much higher (about 300,000 a year).
What our results show, perhaps surprisingly, and more by luck than design, is that recent levels of immigration seem to be in a “goldilocks zone” that balances economic, social and environmental objectives.
Our results also suggest migration is neither the problem nor solution in many areas where Australia is off-track, from government debt to environmental action.
Balancing competing agendas
Immigration policy is Australia’s <a href="https://www.pc.gov.au/inquiries/completed/migrant-intake/report/migrant-intake-report.pdf" target="_blank">de facto population policy</a>. With the birthrate just keeping up with deaths, it’s migration that <a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/http://www.abs.gov.au/AUSSTATS/abs@.nsf/mf/3101.0">drives</a> population growth. It’s why in 2018 the population passed 25 million, <a href="http://www.ausstats.abs.gov.au/Ausstats/subscriber.nsf/0/77DDF6AF34285E7ACA25693E00033443/%24File/32220_1999%20to%202101.pdf" target="_blank">years earlier than previously predicted</a>.
Annual migration intake is set as part of the the annual budget cycle. The government treats it primarily as a short-term economic issue. But population growth has long-term impacts on many sectors, from health and education to infrastructure and <a href="https://theconversation.com/how-migration-affects-housing-affordability-92502" target="_blank">housing</a>. Population growth, particularly through <a href="https://soe.environment.gov.au/theme/drivers/topic/population-driver-environmental-change" target="_blank">urban expansion</a>, increases pressures on the natural environment.
Ideally, therefore, decisions about migration numbers and population growth should synch with long-term planning at the state and local levels to avoid service shortages, <a href="https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/australia-s-lack-of-people-planning-is-a-road-to-nowhere-20180801-p4zut4" target="_blank">urban sprawl, vehicle congestion and infrastructure shortfalls</a>.
The question remains about how to make evidence-based policy that balances deeply divided views. Some strongly support high net migration due to the important role population growth plays in managing an ageing population. Others argue equally forcefully for reducing migration because it places a burden on infrastructure, services and the environment.
Using the sustainable development goals
To negotiate these differences, we chose the <a href="https://sustainabledevelopment.un.org/?menu=1300" target="_blank">UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs)</a>. The goals cover long-term targets in 17 major areas of economic prosperity, social justice and environmental sustainability. All member states of the UN, including Australia, have agreed to them as a shared blueprint to achieve by 2030.
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<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/275833/original/file-20190522-187153-5jlh95.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=1000&amp;fit=clip"><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/275833/original/file-20190522-187153-5jlh95.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=754&amp;fit=clip" alt=""></a>
The 17 Sustainable Development Goals. <a class="source" href="https://sustainabledevelopment.un.org">United Nations</a>
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Each goal area includes multiple specific targets – 169 in all. For example, Goal 11 (“Make cities and human settlements inclusive, safe, resilient and sustainable”) includes the targets of adequate, safe and affordable housing and affordable, accessible and sustainable transport systems.
Countries are not required to adopt all targets, but focus on those appropriate. We chose 52 targets relevant to Australia, covering all 17 goals and ensuring a reasonable balance of economic, social and environmental priorities.
Using advanced modelling capabilities, we tested how achieving the targets by 2030 might be affected by different population sizes.
Overall, not a huge difference
The following chart shows our results in a single graphic. For our low-migration scenario, Australia’s population in 2030 is 27.3 million; for the moderate, 28.9 million; and for the high, 30.6 million.
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<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/276020/original/file-20190523-187179-3ced24.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=1000&amp;fit=clip"><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/276020/original/file-20190523-187179-3ced24.png?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=754&amp;fit=clip" alt=""></a>
How low, moderate and high population scenarios affect Australian’s performance on the Sustainable Development Goals. The authors
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Only in two goal areas – education, clean water and sanitation – do our results show Australia doing better than 85% achievement by 2030 under all three scenarios. Only in another three – health, gender equality and energy – do we do better than 50%.  
All scenarios had equal effect on eliminating poverty (<a href="https://sustainabledevelopment.un.org/sdg1" target="_blank">Goal 1</a>). However, the low-migration scenario did better for achieving food security and improving nutrition (<a href="https://www.un.org/sustainabledevelopment/hunger/" target="_blank">Goal 2</a>).
Perhaps surprisingly, for decent work and economic growth (<a href="https://www.un.org/sustainabledevelopment/economic-growth/" target="_blank">Goal 8</a>), the middle scenario scored the best.
In the centre of the chart are the overall scores of each scenario.
The high-migration scenario (39.4% progress towards all targets) is the lowest , but not by much. There is almost no difference between maintaining recent migration levels (40.5%) and significanly slashing the migration intake (40.6%).
This suggests that, on an equal balance across a broad set of competing objectives, recent historic levels may be about right.
However, these results brush over the range of trade-offs between different targets – some of which may be considered more important than others.
Compared against the low scenario, for example, the high scenario results in an estimated 1.7 million extra vehicles on the roads, increased water consumption (~600 million m3), greater urban sprawl (~60,000 ha), and higher greenhouse gas emissions (~15 million tons CO2-equivalent).
Poor performance in many areas
What is perhaps most striking is that, regardless of the population scenario, Australia isn’t tracking well on most measures of sustainable development. <a href="https://www.sdgtransformingaustralia.com/" target="_blank">Other studies</a> have concluded the same.
As already noted, Australia is doing well on health, education and water quality. But it’s performing poorly on climate action (<a href="https://www.un.org/sustainabledevelopment/climate-change/" target="_blank">Goal 13</a>) and responsible consumption (<a href="https://www.un.org/sustainabledevelopment/sustainable-consumption-production/" target="_blank">Goal 12</a>), to name just two.
Broadly accepted frameworks to <a href="https://www.sdgtransformingaustralia.com/" target="_blank">measure progress</a> and weigh policy decisions in contested areas is something we lack across the policy board.
Finding new drivers of job creation, addressing infrastructure needs, and tackling climate change are just some of the complex challenges Australia faces.
Ad-hoc, short-term approaches to addressing them are unlikely to often deliver optimal outcomes. Combining clear targets, a long-term perspective and advances in modelling might help.<img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/115136/count.gif?distributor=republish-lightbox-basic" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" style="border: none !important; box-shadow: none !important; margin: 0 !important; max-height: 1px !important; max-width: 1px !important; min-height: 1px !important; min-width: 1px !important; opacity: 0 !important; outline: none !important; padding: 0 !important; text-shadow: none !important;">
Cameron Allen, Researcher, UNSW
Graciela Metternicht, Professor of Environmental Geography, School of Biological Earth and Environmental Sciences, UNSW
Thomas Wiedmann, Associate Professor, UNSW
This article is republished from <a href="http://theconversation.com" target="_blank">The Conversation</a> under a Creative Commons license. Read the <a href="https://theconversation.com/if-you-think-less-immigration-will-solve-australias-problems-youre-wrong-but-neither-will-more-115136" target="_blank">original article</a>.
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j.ballantyne1990-6AQqhLzZaK

If you think less immigration will solve Australia’s problems, you’re wrong; but neither will more

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GUEST OBSERVATION
According to the United Nations, more people live in a <a href="https://www.un.org/en/sections/issues-depth/migration/index" target="_blank">country other than their place of birth</a> today than ever before.
The <a href="https://www.un.org/en/development/desa/population/migration/publications/migrationreport/docs/MigrationReport2017_Highlights.pdf" target="_blank">2017 migration statistics</a> show that about 34 people out of every 1,000 lived away from their place of birth. This number was over 31 in 2010, and 28 in 2000.
Although the <a href="https://refugeesmigrants.un.org/migration-compact" target="_blank">number of migrants is expected to grow</a>, a clear understanding of contemporary migration remains a challenge.
Defining who is a migrant
This challenge was on display at <a href="https://www.dw.com/en/south-asian-media-we-need-to-talk-more-with-refugees-and-not-just-report-about-them/a-48356819" target="_blank">a recent meeting</a> where a group of South Asian journalists, academics and activists gathered to address the core issue of migration.
Officially, the <a href="https://www.un.org/en/sections/issues-depth/migration/index" target="_blank">number of migrants</a> globally reached 258 million in 2017, compared to about 173 million in 2000, which represents an increase of 49%. But it remains difficult to determine with reasonable clarity who is a migrant and who is not. The multiple identities of people on the move complicate migration statistics and generate controversy.
One of the speakers, Chris Lowenstein-Lom from the International Organisation of Migration (<a href="https://www.iom.int/" target="_blank">IOM</a>), presented an overview of migration scenarios in South Asia to highlight the sheer number of migrants in the region, both internally and internationally. Many participants questioned the validity of the figures.
Journalists raised questions about the migration data gathered by the UN Department of Economic and Social Affairs (<a href="https://www.un.org/development/desa/en/" target="_blank">UN DESA</a>) and IOM. The figures either contradicted their lived experience (for example, the number of Indian-origin people living in Pakistan, and vice versa) or overlooked the historical context of certain migrants (for example those of Bangladeshi-origin in India).
The IOM representative’s insistence on his organisation’s goal of “safe, regular and orderly” movement of people across borders resonated with other participants. They emphasised that improving data quality is important for achieving safe passage of migrants.
Difficulties with migration data
Concerns about accuracy and clarity of migration statistics were raised concerning both data collection methods and interpretation. For example, the ranking of countries by the number of migrants shifts dramatically with a change in definition.
The highest number of immigrants (over 48 million) live in the United States, which constitutes 15% of the country’s population. However, the highest proportion of immigrants to a population (87%) live in the United Arab Emirates, which is only eight million in number. The highest number of migrants (nearly 16 million) originate from India, which is only 1.2% of the country’s population. But the highest proportion of migrants to a country’s population (45.6%) is in Bosnia and Herzegovina, which is only two million.
Any statistical generalisation about migrants requires significant qualification. Political perspectives on who is or is not a bona fide migrant vary significantly between countries. As a result, the figures produced to represent certain sections of the migrant population can become cloudy or even opaque.
For example, many Indian politicians label the Bangla-speaking Muslim population in northeast India as migrants from Bangladesh. But from the Bangladeshi perspective, most of these people can hardly be considered as such because they had lived in their current location since well before the state of Bangladesh was created in 1971.
Similarly, in the early stage of the 2017 influx of Rohingya people to Bangladesh, this definitional opacity created confusion about their status. Were they returnees, refugees or infiltrators? This lack of clarity in legal status has the potential to render a <a href="https://odihpn.org/magazine/statelessness-identity-rohingya-refugee-crisis/" target="_blank">vast number of people stateless</a>.
On the other hand, the refugee status of the Afghani people in Pakistan has been relatively clear to many sides, even though the identity of a specific individual can still be problematic.
Challenge to report on migration
These differences create a challenge for South Asian journalists to report accurately on migration issues.
Consider the following figures: According to the <a href="https://www.urban.com.au/property-observer" target="_blank">UN DESA 2017 estimate</a>, 33.5 million people moved out of five South Asian countries (Bangladesh, India, Nepal, Pakistan and Sri Lanka) while 11.7 million people lived in these countries as migrants.
The largest number of migrants in South Asia were from neighbouring countries, such as from Myanmar to Bangladesh (42% of the total 2.2 million immigrants in the country), from Afghanistan to Pakistan (1.4 million out of the total 3.4 million), and from Pakistan and Bangladesh to India (together, 81% of the total 5.2 million immigrants).
According to this estimate, about 60% of the 5.2 million migrants in India were from Bangladesh. But this estimate was based mainly on population data produced by India. Bangladeshi officials and experts had reservations about this figure because, they claimed, the historical dimension mentioned above had been overlooked in its calculation.
Consequences of data opacity
One can easily imagine the difficulties faced by journalists in busy newsrooms with limited resources. They need to report on complex migration issues and are expected to report them accurately, without a clear definition about who is and is not a migrant. Would you label Rohingya people in Bangladesh as “returnees”, following the Myanmar authorities? Or would you use the “infiltrator” description, as Bangladeshi officials initially identified them?
Some of this confusion may be clarified over time, but others continue to bug journalists and other commentators. The lack of a clear definition exists not only in South Asia.
Despite the <a href="https://www.spiegel.de/international/world/why-global-migration-statistics-do-not-add-up-a-1090736" target="_blank">well-founded criticisms</a> levelled against the <a href="https://www.urban.com.au/property-observer" target="_blank">UN data on migration</a>, they remain the most widely used set of figures globally. Other organisations and mechanisms of data distribution, such as IOM or the <a href="https://www.urban.com.au/form/data-portal" target="_blank">Migration Data Portal</a> also use them.
An important characteristic of the data set is its origin. They are mainly produced through official <a href="https://www.urban.com.au/property-observer" target="_blank">population censuses</a> by the respective member states, using public money. Everyone has a stake in improving the quality of these data for a better understanding of the complexity of South Asian and global migration.<img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/114443/count.gif?distributor=republish-lightbox-basic" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" style="border: none !important; box-shadow: none !important; margin: 0 !important; max-height: 1px !important; max-width: 1px !important; min-height: 1px !important; min-width: 1px !important; opacity: 0 !important; outline: none !important; padding: 0 !important; text-shadow: none !important;">
Akhteruz Zaman, Lecturer, Massey University
Jahnnabi Das, , University of Technology Sydney
This article is republished from <a href="http://theconversation.com" target="_blank">The Conversation</a> under a Creative Commons license. Read the <a href="https://theconversation.com/migration-is-a-growing-issue-but-it-remains-a-challenge-to-define-who-actually-is-a-migrant-114443" target="_blank">original article</a>.
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Migration is a growing issue, but it remains a challenge to define who actually is a migrant

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NSW’s population, currently sitting at 8,048,000 is tipped to rise to 8.63 million by 2022.
At the same time the Australian population will rise, according to the budget estimates, from 25.1 million to 26.9 million.
But NSW’s lead over Victoria will narrow from being some 1.5 million more residents to around 1.44 million more.
NSW is set to continue receiving high overseas migration settlement, but see a continued decline every year with residents moving interstate.
The interstate exodus from NSW is tipped to see a 16,000 annual decline for the next four years.
Queensland is the biggest beneficiary with 18,400 new arrivals from other states, with Victoria expected to gain 16,800 annually.
WA and SA are also set to lose resident, by 12,000 and 6,500 annually respectively.
The estimates of migration, interstate and overseas, are based on a weighted average of the past three years, the federal budget papers noted.
The total fertility rate is assumed to be 1.781 babies per woman in 2018, and is assumed to rise to 1.900 babies by 2021.
The budget confirmed the Government will reduce the level of overseas migration from 190,000 to 160,000 places for four years from 2019-20.
For the 2019-20 migration program, there will be 108,682 places in the skill stream, 47,732 places in the family stream, with a combined 3,586 places for child and special eligibility streams.
Net overseas migration is tipped to peak this year at 271,700.
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Population gap to narrow between NSW and Victoria

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GUEST OBSERVATION
One in every four Australian households rents, and it’s not just those on low incomes.
A new <a href="http://bcec.edu.au/publications/the-private-rental-sector-in-australia/" target="_blank">nationally representative survey of 3,182 renters</a>, funded by the Bankwest Curtin Economics Centre, finds that while 60% of renting households have a household incomes below A$78,000, 30% are on incomes of more than A$100,000.
Although many households on low incomes and those headed by single parents are undoubtedly struggling to meet rental costs, those on moderate or higher incomes are generally positive about the experience.
Many of us rent
Despite its reputation as a nation of homeowners, Australia has the <a href="https://www.ahuri.edu.au/news-and-media/news/how-does-australias-private-rental-sector-compare-with-the-rest-of-the-world" target="_blank">10th largest private rental sector</a> in the 37 nations that make up the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development.
<hr>
<img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/238105/original/file-20180926-48662-17vb4s4.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=754&amp;fit=clip" alt="">
Comparison of international private rental sectors. OECD Housing tenure distribution 2014 or later. ABS Census data 2016
<hr>
Six in ten renters do it because they can’t afford to do anything else. The rest rent by choice.
Most are happy with what they rent
Perceptions of dwelling quality are positive with only 6% reporting that their dwelling is in a poor or terrible condition. 81% report a good or excellent relationship with their landlord.
Add a property manager into the mix and this falls to a still respectable 69%. Fewer than than 5% of respondents reported a poor or terrible relationship.
Around half of respondents claim to have a good to full understanding of their rights as tenants.
<hr>
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/239827/original/file-20181008-72124-1pp2m3g.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=1000&amp;fit=clip"><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/239827/original/file-20181008-72124-1pp2m3g.JPG?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=754&amp;fit=clip" alt=""></a>
Relationship with property manager or landlord. <a class="source" href="http://bcec.edu.au/publications/the-private-rental-sector-in-australia/" target="_blank">Bankwest Curtin Economics Centre 2018 Private Rental Sector Survey.</a>, Author provided
<hr>
Overall, when asked whether their rental property felt like home, just over 60% reported it did, with less than 20% being negative about their experience.
The longer a tenant lives in a rental dwelling, the more it feels like home, highlighting the importance of security of tenure.
Generally, levels of satisfaction with the sector are high given the proportion of tenants who would rather be owners.
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<img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/238107/original/file-20180926-48650-1piofsz.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=754&amp;fit=clip" alt="">
Satisfaction with the private rental sector by age group. Bankwest Curtin Economics Centre Private Rental Sector Survey
<hr>
Security of tenure matters
Security of tenure is a <a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/http://www.abc.net.au/news/2017-05-24/renting-the-insecurity-of-private-tenants-and-how-they-manage-it/8554238" target="_blank">major concern of private renters</a>.
Two thirds of renters have been in their current property for less than three years. Almost 40% have rented four or more properties during their time as renters.
While two thirds of moves are by choice, around one third are forced with the primary reason being the owner selling the property.
Moves are stressful, expensive and disruptive, particularly for households with children. Around half of all renters say they would gladly choose to sign a lease longer than 12 months if given the option because it would offer greater security and a stronger sense of home.
As does discrimination
One in five renters report some form of discrimination when applying for rental properties.
Those households most likely to suffer from <a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/http://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-08-17/racism-in-the-rental-sector-wa/10129418" target="_blank">discrimination</a> are single parents with children.
In September <a href="https://engage.vic.gov.au/fairersaferhousing" target="_blank">Victoria passed landmark leglislation</a> intended to improve the rights of renters.
Some important issues addressed in the legislation are highlighted in the BankWest Curtin Economics Centre report which found the vast majority of respondents are on short-term leases (12 months or less).
NSW is following suit, although, disappointingly, <a href="https://theconversation.com/an-open-letter-on-rental-housing-reform-103825" target="_blank">it does not plan to outlaw no-grounds evictions</a>.
And rent can be expensive
The typical proportion of gross income spent on rent is 28%, with almost half of all renters paying more than 30%, a figure that rises to 63% for renters over 55.
One in seven renters are paying more than 60% of their income in rent.
When asked the reasons for such high rental payments, almost six in ten report being forced to pay that much through a lack of available alternatives.
Commonwealth rent assistance was regarded as important or very important by nine out of ten of those receiving it.
What we could do to help
One of the best ways to make rent more affordable would be to reintroduce a subsidised rental scheme that offered a financial incentive for developers to invest in housing that would be leased to low-income households at below-market rents along the lines of the <a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/https://www.ahuri.edu.au/research/final-reports/267" target="_blank">National Rental Affordability Scheme</a> by Prime Minister Kevin Rudd in 2008.
It was wound up by his successor Tony Abbott in 2014.
Workable <a href="https://www.domain.com.au/news/how-buildtorent-could-solve-australias-housing-woes-as-first-developments-near-20180703-h12758-750684/" target="_blank">build to rent</a> schemes could also help boost supply and security of tenure, and the negative gearing and capital gains tax concessions tax available to mum and dad investors could be tied to the delivery of long–term, below market rental dwellings.
Our survey finds the private rental market is performing quite well for those on moderate to high incomes. But not for those on low incomes who will never access home ownership and need secure long term tenure.<img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/103890/count.gif?distributor=republish-lightbox-basic" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1" style="border: none !important; box-shadow: none !important; margin: 0 !important; max-height: 1px !important; max-width: 1px !important; min-height: 1px !important; min-width: 1px !important; opacity: 0 !important; outline: none !important; padding: 0 !important; text-shadow: none !important;">
Steven Rowley, Director, Australian Housing and Urban Research Institute, Curtin Research Centre, Curtin University
Amity James, Lecturer, School of Economic, Finance and Property, Curtin University
This article is republished from <a href="http://theconversation.com" target="_blank">The Conversation</a> under a Creative Commons license. Read the <a href="https://theconversation.com/just-like-home-new-survey-finds-most-renters-enjoy-renting-although-for-many-its-expensive-103890" target="_blank">original article</a>.
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