Population gap to narrow between NSW and Victoria

NSW’s population, currently sitting at 8,048,000 is tipped to rise to 8.63 million by 2022.

At the same time the Australian population will rise, according to the budget estimates, from 25.1 million to 26.9 million.

But NSW’s lead over Victoria will narrow from being some 1.5 million more residents to around 1.44 million more.

NSW is set to continue receiving high overseas migration settlement, but see a continued decline every year with residents moving interstate.

The interstate exodus from NSW is tipped to see a 16,000 annual decline for the next four years.

Queensland is the biggest beneficiary with 18,400 new arrivals from other states, with Victoria expected to gain 16,800 annually.

WA and SA are also set to lose resident, by 12,000 and 6,500 annually respectively.

The estimates of migration, interstate and overseas, are based on a weighted average of the past three years, the federal budget papers noted.

The total fertility rate is assumed to be 1.781 babies per woman in 2018, and is assumed to rise to 1.900 babies by 2021.

The budget confirmed the Government will reduce the level of overseas migration from 190,000 to 160,000 places for four years from 2019-20.

For the 2019-20 migration program, there will be 108,682 places in the skill stream, 47,732 places in the family stream, with a combined 3,586 places for child and special eligibility streams.

Net overseas migration is tipped to peak this year at 271,700.