Population Growth

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<p>GUEST OBSERVER</p>
<p>Australia’s population is estimated to have clocked 24 million during the March quarter.</p>
<p>The annual growth rate has been tracking around 1.4 percent for the past six quarters. It is quite a bit lower than the pre-GFC boom years when population growth was running around 2.0 percent pa. But it remains high by OECD standards and is considered to be a strong pace.</p>
<p>Robust population growth means the economy needs to be expanding at a faster rate than otherwise to achieve full employment. That of course means that the economy has the capacity to expand at a faster rate too.</p>
<p>The slowdown in Australia’s population growth rate is a contributing factor to why most estimates of trend growth for the economy have been lowered in recent years – both Treasury and the RBA have lowered their estimates of trend growth to be in 2 3⁄4 to 3 percent range.</p>
<p>In the short run, however, the economy can expand  above that pace because; (i) the unemployment rate is above the non-accelerating inflation  rate of unemployment (NAIRU) and can move lower; and (ii) productivity in the resources sector will continue to lift as production comes on stream. </p>
<p><a href="/images/2016/09/27/Screen%20Shot%202016-09-27%20at%203.17.13%20PM.png" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></p>
<p><img src="/images/2016/09/27/Screen%20Shot%202016-09-27%20at%203.17.13%20PM.png" alt=""></p>
<p>The major driver behind Australia’s population growth continues to be net overseas migration (NOM). However, its contribution to growth has come down over the past few years. Both sides of federal politics favour high levels of immigration to partially offset some of the effects from the ageing of the population. It also allows the economy to grow at a faster rate than would otherwise be the case which boosts aggregate demand. And it has significantly boosted demand for housing which flows through to higher prices. </p>
<p>The ‘grey army’ – those aged 65 and over – has continued to grow as a share of Australia’s population. The growth of this age cohort underpins the structural decline in labour force participation. The ageing of the population has increased the dependency ratio (the age-to-population ratio of those typically not in the labour force) which underpins the need for fiscal reform, particularly tax policy. </p>
<p>The detail</p>
<p>Australia’s population is estimated to have risen by 328k in QI (+0.4 percent). The lift takes the population to 24.1 million as at March 2016. NOM was 181k in the year to March 2016,  up from 177k in the year to March 2015. But well down from the peak of 315k in 2008. </p>
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<p>Population growth is well above the national rate in Victoria. This underpins very strong employment growth in the Garden State, robust residential construction and strong State Final Demand (SFD). It does little for per capita SFD growth, however. The decline in mining investment and associated downturn in mining-related employment has contributed to a sharp slowdown in WA’s population growth rate. </p>
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<p><span>Table 1: Population growth </span><span>– </span><span>QI 2016 </span></p>
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<p><em><span>Gareth Aird is e</span><span>conomist at Commonwealth Bank and can be contacted <a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/https://au.linkedin.com/pub/gareth-aird/14/790/905" target="_blank">here</a>.</span></em></p>
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Australia clocked 24 million people in the March quarter: CBA's Gareth Aird

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<p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.edu.au/content/57114/count.gif" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1"></p>
<p>GUEST OBSERVER</p>
<p>We live in a global age of cities. Australia’s major urban regions are <span>expanding rapidly</span>. Melbourne took in a further 91,600 residents in 2014-15, giving an annual growth rate of 2.1 percent. It’s one of the fastest-growing cities in the developed world.</p>
<p><span>Australia’s other large cities also grew quickly in the past year – Sydney at 1.7 percent and Perth and Brisbane at 1.6 percent. Together the five largest cities added more than 250,000 residents in 2014-15. Projected over the next decade, that’s 2.5 million, the equivalent of adding an extra Brisbane.</span></p>
<p><span>Behind the gloss of ‘liveability’</span></p>
<p><span>In providing for the well-being of the next three million urban Australians, we need to take unvarnished stock of our situation. Australia’s cities have a reputation for being highly liveable, but such <span>corporate metrics obscure many malign facets</span>.</span></p>
<p><span>After three decades of market-driven urbanisation, our cities have become <span>engines of social inequality</span>. The rich have been lifted, inflating housing markets and capturing sites with the best government services and infrastructure and near to high-paid jobs. The poor are <span>displaced to cheaper distant sites</span> where employment, infrastructure and services are lean.</span></p>
<p><span>Our cities are socially divided. We’re doing little to redress these failures.</span><span style="line-height: 1.3em;"> </span></p>
<p><span>Our cities are also machines for <span>environmental degradation and climate change</span>. Buildings and transport systems are overwhelmingly powered by fossil fuels. Expanding fringes continue to consume vulnerable habitats and <span>precious agricultural land</span>. Even <span>infill development adds to urban land-clearing</span> as backyard trees are bulldozed for townhouses and apartments.</span></p>
<p><span>We run our urban systems so that every new resident <span>adds to environmental harm</span>. We need to decouple urban growth from environmental loss.</span></p>
<p><span>We waste public resources on grand transport infrastructure for individual private motor vehicles. Our <span>neglected public transport networks</span> either struggle to meet demand, or are absent and so mire whole communities in costly car dependence. Car parking – ubiquitous, spatially hungry and inefficiently underpriced – consumes valuable urban space.</span></p>
<p><span>Our governance arrangements are mismatched to the scale of our urban problems. Financing arrangements favour the federal government, an absent actor in urban policy, save for election campaigns when infrastructure baubles are showered from on high. Meanwhile states struggle with their urban service responsibilities.</span></p>
<p><span>None of our cities have democratic processes that operate at the level of whole metropolitan areas. Brisbane comes close but is only one council among ten in the urbanised southeast Queensland region.</span></p>
<p><span>We urgently need to move beyond our failed model of urbanisation and development.</span></p>
<p><span>A fourth phase of urban growth?</span></p>
<p><span>Australian cities began as congested 19th-century administrative port towns. As the problems of housing and poverty emerged, we spent the 20th century suburbanising our cities. Via post-WWII reconstruction, we solved housing deficits with new residential suburbs linked to nearby manufacturing as a model of public welfare.</span></p>
<p><span>A third phase of urbanisation emerged in the 1980s as we offshored manufacturing. Our cities were reworked to the dictates of global capital by reorienting our inner-urban industrial cores around symbolic work and leisure complexes while deregulating planning and privatising infrastructure.</span></p>
<p><span>We began to infill our cities, but in a haphazard way, missing many of the assumed gains from consolidation. The reliance on markets has only added to our urban woes by reducing democratic influence on urban decisions.</span></p>
<p><span>With the failures of past planning now apparent, the unruly threat of a damaged and depleting planet is ushering us toward a fourth era of urban restructuring. What urban futures await? What might “City v4.0” look like?</span></p>
<p><span>Priorities for 21st-century cities</span></p>
<p><span>The problems are vast and complex, but here are some brief starting points.</span></p>
<p><span>The first big task for City v4.0 is rapid and radical <span>decarbonisation of our urban systems</span> to reduce our outsized consumption of planetary resources. We need to urgently reduce the use of fossil-fuelled automobiles by shifting to public transport and active travel modes.</span></p>
<p><span>Transport decarbonisation can be achieved by a combination of registration costs, road user charging, road space removal and expansion of public transport, though necessarily calibrated around progressive cost structures to avoid social harms. Walking and cycling, the cheapest and most sustainable modes, need an order-of-magnitude leap in the funding and support they enjoy.</span></p>
<p><span>We can’t wait for electric cars to be adopted en masse. That prospect is still decades away <span>if it can be achieved at all</span>. Electric cars are largely the preserve of the affluent. They offer little respite to poorer households driving older and less efficient fossil fuel cars across vast suburban distances.</span></p>
<p><span>We need to ensure decarbonisation is done inclusively rather than adding another axis of social division. It also means ditching most of our transport cost-benefit analyses which ignore environmental and social costs.</span></p>
<p><span>We need to resocialise our cities. Social disparities are hard to redress once entrenched, so that effort must start immediately. The first task is to achieve more even distribution of high-quality jobs, services and infrastructure across our cities so location does not equate to opportunity. This will require a mix of investment, active government planning and new revenue-raising models to fund better urban services.</span></p>
<p><span>We need <span>comprehensive and progressive land taxes</span> across our cities. These would draw revenue from the inflationary gains made in property markets during recent decades – which favour the wealthy – and redirect them to public purposes. Taxing higher-value service-rich inner properties, for example, to fund redress of suburban service and infrastructure deficits is an urgent urban reform for more inclusive, equitable cities.</span></p>
<p><span>Perhaps some land-tax revenue could go to rebuilding our degraded public housing stock. This has <span>declined as a proportion of all dwellings</span> in recent years.</span></p>
<p><span>Further mechanisms, like inclusionary zoning, to make our cities more inclusive and productive via more affordable housing are urgently needed. Removing minimum car-parking standards for <span>infill developments</span> could improve housing affordability and support sustainable transport.</span></p>
<p><span>Our cities need comprehensive plans to ensure urban land-clearing from infill development does not leave them overheated, stale and brown. Around half of all urban vegetation is on private land, so we need arrangements to preserve and extend green space. Converting underutilised road space to parks or biodiversity corridors has multiple benefits and should be widely adopted.</span></p>
<p><span>New paradigms of planning and governance</span><span style="line-height: 1.3em;"> </span></p>
<p><span>A further opportunity, though rarely discussed, is to reactivate our <span>lost capacity for regional planning</span>. Population growth in the major cities should be discouraged in favour of regional centres.</span></p>
<p><span>And we need to see our major cities not just as individual primate cities but as networked city-regions. That would entail co-ordinated planning effort to better distribute new population, backed by active facilitation of employment and service investment. This would involve much faster trains than the puffing billies that currently serve our regional cities.</span></p>
<p><span>Lastly, our <span>governance arrangements need urgent reorganisation</span> to embed democracy at the meaningful level of the metropolitan area. This would provide a tangible and accessible middle tier between the incapacities of local governments and the general duties of state governments. Metropolitan plans with a clear democratic foundation and enabled by a clear fiscal base should be a priority for urban democratic improvement.</span></p>
<p><span>Nationally, we need better co-ordination of policies and funding between the federal government, which controls immigration and taxation, and lower tiers such as the states, which have all urban service responsibilities. Introducing a spatial perspective into all domestic federal policy to understand how federal actions impact cities and their regions would improve policy performance.</span></p>
<p><span>As a migrant country with a high rate of population growth, Australia takes people from less environmentally damaging nations and cities and, through our inefficient and degraded urban systems, turns them into some of the worst planetary consumers in the world. There seems little appetite for limiting immigration, nor is stopping urban population growth feasible.</span></p>
<p><span>So in an era of global urban transformation, we urgently need to change how we manage, build and grow our cities to version 4.0 so every additional resident enhances, rather than detracts from, the liveability, environmental sustainability and prosperity of our cities.</span></p>
<p><em><span class="fn author-name">Jago Dodson is </span><span style="line-height: 1.3em;">professor of Urban Policy and Director, Centre for Urban Research, RMIT University and author for The Conversation. He can be contacted <a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/jago-dodson-2359" target="_blank">here</a>.</span></em></p>
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City v4.0, a new model of urban growth and governance for Australia

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<p>GUEST OBSERVER</p>
<p>Western Sydney is one of the fastest-growing regions in Australia. It’s also one of the most culturally and linguistically diverse, as a key arrival point for refugees and new migrants when they first settle in Australia.</p>
<p>Various public figures and media outlets have connected asylum-seeker intake and immigration to traffic congestion and queues at hospitals in Western Sydney. </p>
<p>However, this kind of reaction can pin the blame for infrastructure and affordability problems on culturally diverse populations who may have already lived in Australia for many years, if not several generations.</p>
<h2>Growth from international and domestic migration</h2>
<p>Greater Western Sydney includes Blacktown, the Blue Mountains, Camden, Campbelltown, Canterbury-Bankstown, Cumberland, Fairfield Hawkesbury, Liverpool, Parramatta, Penrith, the Hills Shire and Wollondilly.</p>
<p>We examined census data compiled by WESTIR Ltd, a non-profit research organisation based in Western Sydney, partly funded by the NSW Department of Family and Community Services. These data showthat Greater Western Sydney’s population increased by 9.8% between 2011 and 2016. Over the decade from 2006 to 2016, it grew by 16%. </p>
<p>About 55% of those living there were born in Australia, and about 39% where born elsewhere (the remainder did not state their place of birth). Most put English or Australian as their first response when asked about their ancestry.</p>
<p><a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/07/17/Screen%20Shot%202017-07-17%20at%208.35.36%20AM.png" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></p>
<p><img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2017/07/17/Screen%20Shot%202017-07-17%20at%208.35.36%20AM.png" alt=""> </p>
<p><span>Source: </span><a class="source" href="https://www.westir.org.au/new/index.php/census-2016" target="_blank">WESTIR LTD analysis of Census 2016 data</a></p>
<p>New births are slightly down in the region, meaning growth is coming from other sources. This includes new international migration arrivals, but also incoming residents from other parts of New South Wales and interstate.</p>
<p>Greater Western Sydney has long-established cultural and linguistic diversity. The percentage of residents born overseas has increased from 34.1% in 2006 to 38.7% in 2016. Overall, the west accounts for 50.2% of the overseas-born population for the whole of metropolitan Sydney.</p>
<p>Reasoned debates on sustainable migration intake levels are a crucial part of discussions of urban and regional growth. There are valid criticisms of “Big Australia” policies, based on resource and environmental sustainability. </p>
<p>But while the number of new arrivals settling in Western Sydney has increased steadily since the second world war, with a significant jump over the last decade reflecting accelerated skilled migration policies to fill labour shortages, the majority of overseas-born living in the region are long-term settlers who have been in Australia for ten years or more. </p>
<p><a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/07/17/Screen%20Shot%202017-07-17%20at%208.37.27%20AM.png" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></p>
<p><img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2017/07/17/Screen%20Shot%202017-07-17%20at%208.37.27%20AM.png" alt=""></p>
<p><span>Source: </span><a class="source" href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/https://www.abs.gov.au/websitedbs/censushome.nsf/home/2016" target="_blank">WESTIR analysis of Census 2016 data</a></p>
<h2>Increasing diversity does not always mean more new migrant settlers</h2>
<p>The data show that 64% of Western Sydney residents have at least one parent born overseas. This is greater than the number of those born overseas. This correlates with national data indicating that Australian-born second-generation migrant residents outnumber those born outside of Australia. </p>
<p><a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/07/17/Screen%20Shot%202017-07-17%20at%208.38.46%20AM.png" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></p>
<p><img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2017/07/17/Screen%20Shot%202017-07-17%20at%208.38.46%20AM.png" alt=""></p>
<p><span>Source: </span><a class="source" href="https://www.westir.org.au/new/index.php/census-2016" target="_blank">WESTIR analysis of Census 2016 data</a></p>
<p>So while critics may look at non-white Western Sydney residents and assume they are recent migrants, what they’re often really seeing is multiple generations of multiculturalism. Most of these people are long-term local residents, not necessarily a sudden influx of new arrivals.</p>
<p>In addition, not all overseas-born residents are permanent settlers. Australia takes far larger numbers of temporary entrants than it has in the past. Most of these temporary visa holders, such as international students and temporary skilled workers, live in major metropolitan areas and their surrounds, like Western Sydney.</p>
<p>While some portion of these populations do stay on longer-term, they are not all permanent settlers who will add to long-term population growth. Net migration figures, which take into account people who depart Australia every year as well as arrive, and exclude short-term visitors, have generally been decreasing over the past six years. </p>
<h2>Who do we define as ‘migrants’?</h2>
<p>New Zealand citizens moving under Trans-Tasman agreements and migrants from the United Kingdom are still among the largest migrant groups in Greater Western Sydney. </p>
<p><a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/07/17/Screen%20Shot%202017-07-17%20at%208.43.14%20AM.png" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></p>
<p><img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2017/07/17/Screen%20Shot%202017-07-17%20at%208.43.14%20AM.png" alt=""></p>
<p><span>Source: </span><a class="source" href="https://www.westir.org.au/new/index.php/census-2016" target="_blank">WESTIR LTD, using Census 2016 data</a></p>
<p>In many local government areas in Western Sydney – such as Wollondilly, the Hills Shire, Penrith, Hawkesbury and Campbelltown – England and/or New Zealand feature in the top five countries of birth of overseas-born residents. </p>
<p>If anxieties about migration and population in Western Sydney are based on genuine sustainability concerns and not xenophobia, why target mostly refugees and non-white migrants? Why focus only on areas with large non-white and non-English-speaking background populations?</p>
<h2>Migrants do use infrastructure, but also drive economic and jobs growth</h2>
<p>It’s never as simple as one new arrival “using up” an allocation of limited resources, whether jobs, housing, or seats on trains. In fact, new arrivals fill the gaps of an ageing workforce, and current migration policies are targeted to favour younger migrants and specific skills shortages.</p>
<p>Western Sydney, like many regions in Australia, has an ageing population. Residents aged 65-74 years increased from 6.2% in 2011 to 7.2% in 2016. </p>
<p><a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/07/17/Screen%20Shot%202017-07-17%20at%208.44.20%20AM.png" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></p>
<p><img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2017/07/17/Screen%20Shot%202017-07-17%20at%208.44.20%20AM.png" alt=""></p>
<p><span>Source: </span><a class="source" href="https://www.westir.org.au/new/index.php/census-2016" target="_blank">WESTIR Ltd Using Census 2016 data</a></p>
<p>Large-scale infrastructure – whether the slated new airport or the Westmead hospital – requires young and often skilled workers.</p>
<p>Nationally, recently arrived overseas-born residents have a lower median age and a higher level of education than Australian-born residents.</p>
<p>Infrastructure problems are also problems of policy, planning and funding, rather than just population numbers. Problems in transport and health infrastructure in Western Sydney cannot be easily solved by reactive anti-immigration attitudes or policies. </p>
<p>Cuts to programs like the humanitarian program or skilled temporary work visas, where the intake numbers remain relatively small as a proportion of the overall population, will not solve those infrastructure problems.</p>
<p>Western Sydney is growing, and with growth comes growing pains. But equating the region’s rich cultural diversity with a population crisis is the wrong message to send.</p>
<p><span class="fn author-name"><a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/shanthi-robertson-48422" target="_blank">Shanthi Robertson</a> is </span>Senior Research Fellow, Institute for Culture and Society, Western Sydney University.</p>
<p><span class="fn author-name"><a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/kristine-aquino-376456" target="_blank">Kristine Aquino</a> is </span>Lecturer in Global Studies, University of Technology Sydney.</p>
<p>Both are authors for <a href="https://theconversation.com/au" target="_blank">The Conversation</a>.</p>
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Blaming migrants won’t solve Western Sydney’s growing pains

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<p style="line-height: 1.3em;">GUEST OBSERVATION</p>
<p style="line-height: 1.3em;">Australia’s population growth has typically lagged the economy’s fortunes – people vote with their feet. Rising unemployment typically results in a slowing in net immigration and population growth (typically with a lag), and vice versa (Figure 1).</p>
<p style="line-height: 1.3em;"><span style="line-height: 1.3em;">We are seeing this currently as sluggish growth in activity has resulted in a slowing in population growth. We discuss a few reasons why net immigration and population growth may have already slowed by more than official figures suggest. </span></p>
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<p><span>Australia’s population growth slowed to 1.4% y/y, on current estimates, at the end of 2014 from a peak of more than 2% y/y prior to the GFC. Lower net immigration has contributed most to the slowing but births have also fallen (see page 4) (Figure 3). </span></p>
<p><span>Monthly overseas arrivals and departures data suggest that net immigration slowed further in H1 2015 (Figure 4). In fact, on a sequential basis, </span><span>population growth already looks to have dipped towards 11⁄4% </span><span>at end 2014 in annualised terms. </span></p>
<p><span>The slowing in population growth has been </span><span>most pronounced in the mining states </span><span>of Western Australia, Queensland and the Northern Territory (Figure 5). These states have also seen sharp slowings in 457 visa (Temporary Work (Skilled)) applications which allow recipients to stay in Australia for up to four years. This indicates that slower economic activity and </span><span>reduced job opportunities in these states has been an important reason for the overall slowing in net immigration</span><span>. This has taken pressure off unemployment from rising faster than it has in these states. </span></p>
<p><span>Historically, swings in population growth have </span><span>tended to lag changes in economic momentum</span><span>. To illustrate, population growth has typically slowed as the unemployment rate has risen, and vice-versa (the one exception being the late 1980s where population growth slowed in advance of the economic cycle) (Figure 6). </span></p>
<p><span>The slowing in population growth underway therefore largely reflects weaker economic activity. </span><span>From a labour market perspective, slower population growth can be thought of as ‘shock absorber’. It limits upward pressure on the unemployment rate to the extent that it reflects a slower rise in the supply of available workers. </span><span>A large share of the slowing in net immigration has been among the prime working age </span><span>(25- 44 year olds). Fewer arrivals British and other European citizens in this age bracket have accounted for half of the decline in permanent and long-term arrivals to Australia since 2012. </span></p>
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<p><span>Measuring population growth accurately in real time is difficult and we suspect that it could be revised lower due to downward revisions to net overseas migration (NOM) over time. </span></p>
<p><span>The ABS count persons as being in the resident population if they are in Australia for at least 12 months in a 16 month period. The problem is that this cannot be known in real time and the ABS cannot produce ‘final’ NOM and population estimates until 21 months after the relevant quarter.</span><span>1 </span><span>In the interim its </span><span>preliminary estimates of NOM are subject to revision </span><span>which can sometimes be large (Figure 7). In fact, </span><span>NOM and population growth have already been revised lower </span><span>since its most recent peak. This could be due to the way the ABS calculates preliminary estimates of NOM. </span></p>
<p><span>To estimate NOM the ABS uses passenger card information combined with propensities from the year before for groups of individuals to ‘NOM in’ or ‘NOM out’. Revisions to NOM can therefore occur if these propensities are changing quickly which may occur if net migration flows are changing rapidly as is currently the case. </span></p>
<p><span>Net immigration has already been slowing faster than expected. </span><span>For instance, ABS estimates of NOM have already significantly undershot the latest estimates/forecasts by the Department of Immigration made in mid 2014, particularly on the departures side (Figure 8). Net immigration from New Zealand has slowed more sharply than expected as unemployment had been falling across the Tasman but rising in Australia (Figure 9). </span></p>
<p><span>More important, however, has been the much weaker-than-expected decline in net immigration of persons on Working Holiday and Work &amp; Holiday visas and the slowing in net immigration of workers on 457 visas, both reflecting the softness of Australia’s labour market (Figures 10 and 11). </span></p>
<p><span>Finally, net immigration may be weaker than official estimates because </span><span>published (final) NOM figures have historically overstated net immigration. </span><span>Given births and deaths can be measured relatively accurately, and total population estimates are provided by the Census every five years, a more accurate estimate of net immigration is calculated as population growth less natural increase. Figure 12 shows that this residual measure of NOM has been lower than published NOM. </span><span>If history is any guide, therefore, the availability of 2016 Census figures could lead to further downward revisions to NOM and population growth. </span></p>
<p><span>In summary, these factors suggest </span><span>net immigration and population growth have already slowed by more than official figures suggest. </span></p>
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<p><span>THE OUTLOOK FOR POPULATION GROWTH </span></p>
<p><span>Population growth is expected to slow a little further in the near term as lags from slower economic activity feed through. </span><span>Over the next five years, it seems likely that population growth will average 11⁄4-11⁄2% per annum (the RBA is now assuming 11⁄2% over the next few years). This would be much slower than growth experienced in recent years but still faster than the 1.1% per annum average growth rate from 1992 to 2006. As net immigration slows, nearly half of Australia’s population growth is again likely to come from natural increase, although this is also slowing. </span></p>
<p><span>NATURAL INCREASE </span></p>
<p><span>The number of births has moderated again in recent years after a brief spurt and is expected to slow further. </span></p>
<p><span>The contribution of natural increase – births less deaths – to population growth steadily declined over time until the mid 2000s (Figure 2). More births then supported population growth as the number of 25-34 year old females – those with the highest fertility rates – rose sharply after being little changed for more than a decade (Figure 13). </span></p>
<p><span>The number of births and natural increase in the population is already slowing. It will slow further as much weaker growth over the past five years in the number of 20-24 year old females will result in slower growth in the population of 25-34 year old females. </span></p>
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<p><span>NET IMMIGRATION </span></p>
<p><span>Unless there is a persistent improvement in labour market conditions, it is difficult to see net immigration increasing in the foreseeable future. </span><span>While some further slowing in net immigration is expected in the near term, we expect it to then stabilise due to: (i) fewer outflows to New Zealand; (ii) a still high official immigration programme; and (iii) strong international student inflows. </span></p>
<p><span>First, the relative strength of the New Zealand economy, which has resulted in a small outflow of people from Australia across the Tasman, is diminishing. The jobless rate in New Zealand has increased recently amid more moderate economic activity and the increase in labour supply (Figure 14). This could see at least a </span><span>stabilisation in net immigration between Australia and New Zealand </span><span>if not some turnaround. </span></p>
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<p><span>Secondly, the intake under </span><span>Australia’s official Migration Programme has been kept at 190,000 persons for 2015-16</span><span>. While this level of official migration in recent years has not prevented net immigration from moderating, it will limit its rate of decline by, to some extent, putting a floor under immigration levels (Figure 15). </span></p>
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<p><span>Finally, </span><span>strong growth in international student arrivals is supporting net immigration</span><span>. As long as students satisfy the ‘12/16’ rule they are counted as residents for population purposes and many stay in Australia after graduation. </span></p>
<p><span>The number of </span><span>international student commencements has reached the previous peak in 2009 </span><span>when its contribution to net immigration peaked at around 120K persons per annum (Figure 16). Department of Immigration forecasts, which appear broadly on track, suggest a similarly large contribution to NOM over the next few years which would add 0.4ppts to annual population growth. (Students may add less to potential labour supply than other immigrants, however, as they are limited to working 20 hours per week while studying.) </span></p>
<p><span>This trend is being supported by the weaker Australian dollar, streamlined policies towards overseas students and rule changes that allow overseas students to extend their stay for two to four years upon graduation under a Temporary Graduate visa. </span></p>
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<p><span>IMPLICATIONS OF SLOWER POPULATION GROWTH </span></p>
<p><span>Potential growth and interest rates </span></p>
<p><span>In the medium-term, one implication of slower population growth is lower potential output growth through weaker growth in both demand and supply. Given the aging population, potential labour supply growth would be even slower absent a persistent increase in labour force participation. </span></p>
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<p><span>Assuming annual productivity growth around its long-run average of 11⁄2%, potential output growth could fall closer to 23⁄4% per annum over the medium term, well below the 3–31⁄4% widely assumed previously. While it’s per capita growth that ultimately determines standards of living, </span><span>lower potential GDP growth would imply lower interest rates than otherwise </span><span>(Figure 17). </span></p>
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<p><span>Housing demand </span></p>
<p><span>One source of slower potential output growth is that </span><span>slowing population growth would, over time, reduce underlying demand for housing. </span><span>While several years of underbuilding means that there remains excess demand for housing, particularly in Sydney, smaller increases in the population will eventually result in weaker housing demand. </span></p>
<p><span>In this regard, </span><span>relatively small changes in population growth matter for housing demand. </span><span>For example, annual population growth of 11⁄4% would add around 125k less people per annum to the population compared with growth of 13⁄4% (Figure 18). Assuming 2.5 persons per household, this would mean housing demand drops by roughly 50k dwellings per year. </span></p>
<p><span>A complicating factor is that international students are expected to account for a noticeable share of population growth in the near term. As mentioned recently by the RBA, demand for housing from students may be different to that from other immigrants, including because they have lower incomes and are typically younger. They are also likely to demand housing close to universities and apartment living rather than detached housing. The composition of student arrivals, however, may also have a bearing on the type of housing sought. </span></p>
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<p><em>Justin Fabo is senior economist, ANZ. You can follow him on Twitter <a href="https://twitter.com/justinfabo" target="_blank">here</a>.</em></p>
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Australia's sluggish population growth: Justin Fabo

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<p>GUEST OBSERVER</p>
<p>Population growth is bouncing of the slowest annual pace in almost 10 years.</p>
<p>If population is growing near 1.3 percent, we will need productivity growth near 1.7 percent to maintain the “speed limit” of the economy at 3 per cent. As the Reserve Bank has intimated, the speed limit of the economy has probably come down to a rate closer to 2.75 per cent.</p>
<p>Victoria is still the population leader. You have to go back to 1888 to find a time when Victoria held the position of the state with the fastest population growth. In fact population in Victoria is growing at the fastest pace in six years. In comparison Western Australia and South Australia have the weakest annual population growth rates in 12 and 11 years respectively. A result that resonates with the slowdown and weakness in the driven mining states. Only NSW and Victoria now have an annual population growth rate above long-term averages – important in absorbing the record amount of homes being built.</p>
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<p>It is clear the labour market was the stellar performer over 2015. But there have been a number of signs that employment growth is now in the midst of a consolidation. Job advertisements have shown signs of consolidating in the past couple of months while the monthly employment statistics suggest employment growth has softened. Interestingly the data by industry provides a telling breakdown about where the jobs are being created. Over the three months to May employment grew by almost 47,000. Overall 10 of the 19 industry sectors recorded job gains in the past three months, with the hiring dominated by Healthcare &amp; social assistance, Wholesale trade and Accommodation &amp; food services.</p>
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<p>Overall the labour market remains relatively upbeat. The lift in consumer confidence and business conditions should boost spending, investment and employment once the election is out of the way – a result that should see the jobless rate trend lower to 5.5 per cent by the end of this year.</p>
<p>  Healthcare remains the biggest employer and was also the biggest job creator over the past year. Interestingly Finance &amp; insurance, Construction and Retail were amongst the major employers over the past year – a result that resonates with the lift in activity across the economy.</p>
<p>What does the data show?</p>
<p>Industry employment:</p>
<p>Employment rose by 46,700 over the three months to May after a gain of 4,000 in the previous three months.</p>
<p>Over the past year employment lifted by 224,000 well above the decade average of 190,600.</p>
<p>Employment rose in 10 of the 19 industry sectors. Employment rose most in Health Care and Social Assistance (up 40,700), followed by Accommodation and Food Services (up 20,100) and Wholesale trade (up 17,500).</p>
<p>In the quarter, the number of jobs fell the most in Professional, Scientific and Technical Services (down 34,800), followed by Retail Trade (down 21,900), and Administrative and Support Services (down 18,800).</p>
<p>Healthcare remains the biggest employer with 1.6 million employees (13 per cent of the total) followed by Retail Trade (1.3 million jobs or 10.5 per cent) and Construction (1.08 million or 9.1 per cent).</p>
<p>Population Statistics: </p>
<p>Australia’s population expanded by 326,100 people over the year to December 2015 to 23,940,300 people.</p>
<p>Overall, Australia’s population growth rate rose from a 10-year low of 1.36 per cent to 1.38 per cent.</p>
<p>Australia’s population grew by just 71,300 people over the December quarter – the weakest quarterly result in 41⁄2-years.</p>
<p>A total of 177,000 people migrated to Australia over year to December, well down on the 315,700 peak migrants in the year to December 2008.</p>
<p>There were 305,300 babies born in the past year, just shy of the record 312,200 births in the year to December 2012.</p>
<p>Over the past year population growth was the strongest in Victoria (1.87 per cent – the fastest growth in 6 years), followed by NSW (1.40 per cent), the ACT (1.36 per cent), Queensland (1.26 per cent), Western Australia (1.20 per cent – weakest in almost 13 years), South Australia (0.66 per cent –weakest in 11 years), Tasmania (0.41 per cent) and the Northern Territory (0.35 per cent).</p>
<p>Population growth is above decade averages in NSW (7 per cent) and Victoria (5.6 per cent).</p>
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<p><img src="/images/2016/06/24/Screen%20Shot%202016-06-24%20at%2010.18.45%20AM.png" alt=""></p>
<p>What is the importance of the report?</p>
<p>Demographic Statistics are issued by the Bureau of Statistics each quarter. The figures include estimates of births, deaths, in-bound and out-bound migration movements and estimates of population change by State.</p>
<p>The Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) provides detailed labour market figures one week after releasing ‘top level’ statistics of employment &amp; unemployment levels across states and territories. The detailed data is useful in identifying broader underlying trends and instructive about the health of the economy. </p>
<p>What are the implications for interest rates and investors?</p>
<p>The latest data has few implications for interest rate settings. But if population growth remains soft, the Reserve Bank may need to make further adjustments to economic growth assumptions.</p>
<p>CommSec expects the Reserve Bank to cut interest rates again in August. </p>
<p><em>Savanth Sebastian is an economist for <a href="https://www.commsec.com.au/" target="_blank">CommSec</a>.</em></p>
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Baby boom; Healthcare leads hiring: CommSec's Savanth Sebastian

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<div>There was a slight increase in the number of permanent settlers in Australia in the year to June, according to today's ABS figures. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>Most come from Asia, at 58.4 per cent in the year to June.</div>
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<div>Only 410 Brit settlers arrived in the month of June - crashing down from a record 2,560 in August 2007 to the lowest figure in the history of the data series. </div>
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<div>Not so many Kiwis are making the permanent journey across the Tasman either right now.</div>
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<div>With departures up over the past year, net permanent and long term immigration fell quite sharply to +262,800, the lowest figure since March 2007.</div>
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<p> </p>
<div>It's another type of casualisation. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>Just as there are more part time jobs these days than there used to be, there are more part time migrants!<br><br>Despite the slowdown, as I explored here the headcount in Australia is probably up by more than 400,000 over the last year, including a surge in international students.</div>
<p><br><strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">Record visitors</span></strong></p>
<div> </div>
<div>The lower dollar has resulted in an epic boom in short term arrivals, to yet another all-time high of 7.84 million.<br><br>And this figure is accelerating, up by 10 per cent over the past year. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>That said, the downward pressure impact of the lower dollar on short term departures (up to 9.67 million) may be beginning to fade. </div>
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<div>Most short term visitors come for holidays (3.91 million) or to visit friends and relatives (2.04 million).</div>
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<div>No surprises that June saw yet another monthly record in the number of visitors from China and Hong Kong,</div>
<div> </div>
<div>There has been a stunning 21 per cent increase in annual visitors from China, Hong Kong, and Taiwan, to a record 1.54 million (a rip-snorting 13-fold increase from 1991). </div>
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<p><br><span>Meanwhile 469,800 education arrivals in the year to June was 14 per cent higher than one year ago.</span><br><br><a href="/images/2016/08/05/A2.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a><br><img src="/images/2016/08/05/A2.jpg" alt=""></p>
<div>Recall that the visa rules for international students were relaxed effective 1 July, so these figures will likely accelerate in the second half of 2016.</div>
<p><strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">The wrap</span></strong></p>
<div>As you were, really.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Fewer long term and permanent migrants to Australia - particularly from the United Kingdom and New Zealand - but record short term arrivals and ever more Chinese visitors (with more to come when the changes to student visa rules kick in as the year progresses). </div>
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<p><span><em>PETE WARGENT is the co-founder of <a href="https://allenwargent.com/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">AllenWargent</a> property buyers (London, Sydney) and a best-selling author and <a href="https://petewargent.blogspot.com/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">blogger</a>.</em><br></span></p>
<p><em>His latest book is <a href="https://www.bigskypublishing.com.au/Books/General-Interest/Four-Green-Houses--and-a-Red-Hotel/1015/productview.aspx" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">Four Green Houses and a Red Hotel</a>.</em></p>
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Record Chinese visitors again: Pete Wargent

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<div>The latest population growth figures put an altogether different slant on Australia's assumed apartment gluts. </div>
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<div>In Melbourne, the risks have receded dramatically, at least for now.</div>
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<div>In fact, with the state's estimated populated growth apparently tracking at the highest level in six decades, it would be all but impossible for the market to become 'oversupplied' until this rate of growth in the headcount slows down. </div>
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<div>Now Queensland <strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">really</span></strong> went on an apartment construction mission from 2014 forth, to the extent that there is a now a clear oversupply of units in some locations, particularly inner city Brisbane, with more supply still to come online. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>The latest figures show that although the glut will have an impact for some time to come, the market will right itself eventually.</div>
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<div>Indeed, the reacceleration of population growth to +75,400 per annum is exactly what Queensland's housing markets needed to help absorb the stock, while new apartment starts are now understandably and visibly slowing to a crawl. </div>
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<div>In Hobart, commencements have yet to pick up dramatically, despite electric growth in house prices and rents.</div>
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<div>Because the Hobart market demands houses and not apartments, in theory the supply response should come much more quickly (apartment projects can take ages to build, comparatively speaking).<br><br>And we know from previous cycles that the market has the potential to deliver much greater supply - but to date it hasn't happened.<br><br>Developers from the mainland are not that keen to get involved, perhaps, given the logistical challenges.<br><br>I haven't been down to Tassie for a while - and I got seasick when I last went - so I have no feel whatsoever for activity on the ground. </div>
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<div><strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">First homebuyer demand</span></strong></div>
<div> </div>
<div>I noted here previously that the 2016 Census confirmed an enormous surge in 25-34 year olds.</div>
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<div>Due in part to housing affordability challenges, many are not yet forming households, though they might begin to do so if capital city apartment prices do ever slide in any meaningful way.<br><br>
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<div>ANZ research this week suggested that there is significant latent first homebuyer demand, and ANZ believes that this could potentially keep an effective floor under prices, which is what I concluded from the Census figures back in June too.</div>
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<p class="p1"><span class="s1">PETE WARGENT is the co-founder of <a href="https://allenwargent.com/" target="_blank"><span class="s2">AllenWargent</span></a> property buyers (London, Sydney) and a best-selling author and <a href="https://petewargent.blogspot.com/" target="_blank"><span class="s2">blogger</span></a>.</span></p>
<p class="p2"><span class="s3"><em>His latest book is </em><a href="https://www.bigskypublishing.com.au/Books/General-Interest/Four-Green-Houses--and-a-Red-Hotel/1015/productview.aspx" target="_blank"><span class="s2"><em>Four Green Houses and a Red Hotel</em></span></a><em>.</em></span></p>
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Australia's assumed apartment gluts

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<div>Figures out recently showed Australian employment growth <a href="http://petewargent.blogspot.com.au/2018/03/employment-growth-hits-all-time-high" target="_blank">tracking at all-time record levels</a>, with a stunning +420,700 year-on-year increase in employment, including an eye-watering +166,200 increase in New South Wales.<br><br>I took a look through those numbers in a bit more detail, including at the state level, <a href="http://petewargent.blogspot.com.au/2018/03/employment-growth-hits-all-time-high" target="_blank">here</a>.<br><br>Population growth tends to be pro-cyclical, and over the year to September 2017 the annual growth in Australia's estimated resident population picked up to +395,600, for the quickest annual increase since 2013 in absolute terms, if not in percentage terms.<br><br>The estimated rate of population increase through net overseas migration is a bit faster than might be implied by the issuance of permanent residency visas, with the growth international students accounting for some of the difference.<br><br>I'll take a look below through where and why that's happened in 4 short parts.<br><br><strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">Part 1: By natural causes...</span></strong><br><br>
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<div>As the population grows and ages the number of deaths each year tends to climb steadily, now up to +161,100 over the year to September 2017.<br><br>The trends for births are a bit more complicated, and often vary quite significantly around the regions of Australia and by culture.<br><br>Generally speaking, we're still having babies, but on average we opt to do it later in life than was the case over the preceding decades.<br><br>I'm not a bad case study myself for Australia's population trends, being a capital city immigrant to Sydney that worked in professional services, then mining, then real estate...before relocating to Brisbane, and leaving having children about as late as nature would allow.<br><br>I've yet to get divorced.<br><br>You might say I'm following the herd, but in fact my plan has been to be ahead of the crowd on all fronts, and indeed with the benefit of hindsight I probably got out of the mining industry a few years too soon (bubbles can have a second wind and run for <strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">much</span></strong> longer than you think they will...but you live and learn with these things!).<br><br>Anyway, back to the demographic statistics, there was previously a bit of a blip in the births figures - the error was administrative and related to slow record-keeping rather than the number of babies actually popping out - but the backlog now seems to be fixed and total births have stabilised at around +306,500.<br><br>Thus, the natural increase in Australia's population over the year to September was +145,500, a bit lower than the +151,500 a year earlier as the number of deaths continued to increase. </div>
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<div>It's hard to predict what will happen here.<br><br>Certainly the number of deaths will continue to rise (that's one prediction you can hold me to) and as the Baby Boomer population ages for the past decade I've consistently recommended some exposure to the healthcare sector for that very reason, while there will be a chronic shortage of aged care facilities and, in some locations, retirement living options.<br><br>Future births I can't reliably predict - nobody can - but by dicing up the population pyramid I do like to construct the argument that the growth in births will be much stronger than many expect, due to immigration being focused on younger arrivals, and the <a href="http://petewargent.blogspot.com.au/2017/06/demographic-tsunami" target="_blank">corresponding explosion</a> in the 25-34 year old cohort.<br><br>The births boom will just come a bit later down the track than previous trends might imply, that's all.<br><br>Unfortunately more divorces and separations will also ultimately result in an unprecedented spike in demand for inner-suburban apartments and townhomes, but that's all a while away yet.<br><br><div class="separator"><a href="https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-3xjJlS6OX_k/WrQc2VK_knI/AAAAAAAApDw/O4n-4-OnTLAs8-hkt1esyNXFoB6WhkV2wCLcBGAs/s1600/Year%2Bof%2BAge.jpg"><img src="https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-3xjJlS6OX_k/WrQc2VK_knI/AAAAAAAApDw/O4n-4-OnTLAs8-hkt1esyNXFoB6WhkV2wCLcBGAs/s640/Year%2Bof%2BAge.jpg" width="640" height="396" data-original-height="835" data-original-width="1348"></a></div>
<br><strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">Part 2: Immigration nation</span></strong><br><br>
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<div>Australia's permanent migrant intake is capped at around 200,000 per annum, but the overall pace of net overseas migration was faster than this, partly accounted for by international students.<br><br>Furthermore, earlier studies by the ABS have found that many Australians migrating overseas 'permanently' or purportedly for the long term end up returning to these shores within a remarkably short space of time, suggesting that for many the grass is not greener elsewhere.<br><br>Incidentally, <a href="https://www.urban.com.au/expert-insights/investing/43292-boomerang-departures-drive-population-growth-rebound-pete-wargent" target="_blank">I wrote in 2015</a> how these 'boomerang departures' would be one factor leading to a population growth rebound, inadvertently dragging me into a quagmire of social media ridicule (in the end I was right, though).<br><br>Looking at the net figures, then, we can see that net overseas migration increased by +15.4 per cent over the year to +250,100. </div>
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<p> The next slide tells its own story: immigrants still love Sydney and Melbourne, and now in record numbers. </p>
<div> </div>
<div>Concerningly for the regional centres of Australia, the <em>Characteristics of Recent Migrants</em> survey showed that not only do migrants uniformly head to the capital cities, <a href="http://petewargent.blogspot.com.au/2017/06/migrants-flock-to-capital-cities-stay" target="_blank">they also now overwhelmingly remain there</a>. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>I know a bit about this, because I'm one of the said migrants, although like many I've made a couple of internal capital city moves since my first arrival in Australia in the 1990s. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>During the mining boom years through until 2012 immigrants also flocked to the resources states. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>I recall Simon Reeve's BBC documentaries revealing to stunned Britons that expat truck drivers in Western Australia were earning salaries that most working class Poms could only dream of, and to rub further salt into their wounds the truckies were living in houses with swimming pools you could actually swim in! </div>
<div> </div>
<div>Although Queensland has experienced something of a rebound, the drawcard for the resources states is not nearly as strong as it used to be, and South Australia has at least half a foot in that camp too. </div>
<div> </div>
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<div>
<br>Going forward Sydney, Melbourne and south-east Queensland are projected to capture the bulk of population growth.<br><br>Perth will now have direct flights to Europe in its favour, but my analysis here previously has shown that in the future almost all of the net growth in the overseas born population will be driven by migrants of Asian origin.<br><br>European-born Baby Boomers are set to drop off the perch and more Asian migrants and international students from China and India are dominating the intake (with many expected to become permanent residents later).<br><br>This in turn has a strong impact on future demographic pull-factors, including for family visas and future international students.<br><br><strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">Part 3: Upping sticks</span></strong><br><br>One of the main trends to watch for me at the moment is internal movements as the two most populous capital cities adjust to the latest influx.<br><br>Sydney in particular can be wearisome at times with the delivery of the CBD &amp; South East Light Rail project still seemingly an age away, although testing on the Randwick section is at least now underway.<br><br>This is scant consolation, I expect, for the commuting residents of Randwick and Coogee currently experiencing near-unfathomable gridlock on their short 6 to 8km journey to the city, only to discover that when then arrive in the city the key CBD thoroughfares are being dug up there too.<br><br>For this reason and others, Queensland has now usurped Victoria as the typical interstate migrant's destination of choice with net inflows hitting a decade high of above +19,000.<br><br>About 12,000 of those came from New South Wales on a net basis, with the ratio of Sydney's house prices to those in Brisbane tracking at the highest level we've ever seen at above 2.2. One way or another that ratio will likely close back below 2. </div>
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<div> </div>
<div>Although not included here because it would simply be a long, flat, green line on this Y-axis scale, Tasmania is now attracting more than a smattering of interstate migrants at +1,000 net over the year to September.<br><br>Net interstate migration away from struggling South Australia is not a new thing, and indeed the ABS figures record that well over 100,000 South Australians have relocated elsewhere on a net basis since the early 1980s.<br><br>South Australia now has the slowest population growth of all the states in percentage terms at +0.6 per cent, but it's the composition of demographic change rather than the absolute headcount that should be of most concern.<br><br>The present speed of the outflow is somewhat alarming, especially because interstate migration can have an irritating tendency to sap a capital city of its potential best and brightest.<br><br>Since the peak of the mining boom in late 2012, South Australia has lost more than -23,000 residents interstate, with many skipping in a south-easterly direction to the brighter lights of Melbourne.<br><br>I don't know how that trend gets arrested, but someone needs to have a deep think about it.<br><br><strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">Part 4: Totting it up</span></strong><br><br>Totting it all up, then, strength in net interstate migration takes Queensland's population growth all the way back up to +81,300, from a cyclical nadir of below +60,000 in 2015.<br><br>Brisbane typically accounts for 60 to 65 per cent of that growth with Queensland being the one Australian state with diverse and thriving regional centres including Gold Coast (which is set to benefit imminently from the 2018 Commonwealth Games) and Caloundra on the Sunshine Coast.<br><br>I looked <a href="http://petewargent.blogspot.com.au/2018/03/queensland-population-to-pass-5-million" target="_blank">in a bit more detail here</a> at where the main population flows are headed in the Sunshine State.<br><br>But even this rate of state population growth growth pales into insignificance next to Victoria (+147,400) and New South Wales (+123,100).  </div>
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<div>A significant <a href="http://petewargent.blogspot.com.au/2017/06/melbourne-population-growth-blows-doors" target="_blank">intercensal difference</a> emerged in the 2016 Census and found that the nadir in population growth in Western Australia was considerably lower than previously believed, partly accounting for the dwelling stock overhang, though population growth is now picking up again and the housing market is rebalancing. </div>
<p> </p>
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<div> </div>
<div>Western Australia's annual population growth was up to +22,000 or +0.9 per cent.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Finally, the Northern Territory experienced a small population decline in the September 2017 quarter, which is fairly unusual, though not unheard of. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>I've even lived in Darwin myself, which says something about what a cyclical type of place it can be. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>Through recent episodes of disruption there have been strong correcting factors such a once-in-150 year resources boom or the Cyclone Tracy rebuild to drive the Territory forward. </div>
<p> </p>
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<p> </p>
<div>I'm not sure what comes next for the NT through the Ichthys/INPEX construction phase wash-up, but then again I haven't been to Darwin for a couple of years and it's the sort of place that likes to deliver surprises. </div>
<p> </p>
<div><strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">The wrap</span></strong></div>
<div> </div>
<div>Overall, then, estimated growth in the resident population at +395,600 was comfortably stronger than a year earlier, when it was +370,400.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Australia's estimated resident population will accordingly pass 25 million within just a few months from today, with Queensland's population projected to surpass 5 million in May. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>After accounting for the concentration of migrants into the capitals Greater Melbourne is growing at about the fastest pace ever.<br><br>Sydney is losing some residents internally to the NSW regions, to the south, north, and west, as Baby Boomers take their new-found housing equity elsewhere for a lifestyle change.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>South-east Queensland population growth will pick up as the <a href="http://petewargent.blogspot.com.au/2018/03/queensland-population-to-pass-5-million" target="_blank">magnetic north</a> does its thing, and in fact it already is as anyone living in inner Brisbane will testify.<br><br><div class="separator"><a href="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-GdOeqtrS-C8/WrQv9MBrEoI/AAAAAAAApEQ/Kidd_RvjMVUO1dxt1Yr-LpN-Yxtie7F0wCLcBGAs/s1600/QLD.jpg"><img src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-GdOeqtrS-C8/WrQv9MBrEoI/AAAAAAAApEQ/Kidd_RvjMVUO1dxt1Yr-LpN-Yxtie7F0wCLcBGAs/s640/QLD.jpg" width="640" height="388" data-original-height="813" data-original-width="1339"></a></div>
</div>
<div>Next I'll get around to posting my mapping population growth versus dwelling completions, which will reveal an interesting outcome or two, especially for Melbourne and Brisbane.</div>
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Immigrants still love Sydney and Melbourne, and now in record numbers

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<div>Like many getting-a-bit-long-in-the-tooth Sydneysiders, I've increasingly been having recurring daydreams about selling a place at Bondi or in the inner west and trading it for a mansion at Maroochydore (or sometime it's a mooring at Mooloolaba). </div>
<div> </div>
<div>Probably about once a fortnight I have these fantasises, on average, I reckon. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>And then reality bites.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>I wake up and find that Infrastructure Australia (IA) has released another report, which always brings me back to earth and reminds me why I invested in inner-Sydney property in the first place. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>As ever, IA's Future Cities report presents a range of scenarios.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>There's a decentralised scenario which incorporates acres of building and hundreds of thousands of new homes in the south-west.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>And then there's a centralised scenario where everyone crams like crazy into zones close to the Central Business District (CBD), and to a lesser extent Parramatta.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>And then there's the medium-density scenario, which is a realistic mixture of the two, incorporating population growth across the city and on balance the most likely outcome. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>The scenarios have one thing in common: none of them envisages a Sydney in 2046 with a population of under 7.34 million. </div>
<p> </p>
<div><img src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-PdMnCv6NaPM/WpCTHx3DIuI/AAAAAAAAoic/PKX5PyrObPwoXRjOHlN760TUpD5B47wUwCLcBGAs/s640/A3.jpg" width="640" height="240" data-original-height="500" data-original-width="1324"></div>
<p> </p>
<div>Although people are expected to live all over Sydney, the share of employment will remain heavily skewed to the CBD and city fringe, and to a secondary extent Parramatta. </div>
<p> </p>
<div><img src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-aHGJZcD-GmI/WpDsUCuGnlI/AAAAAAAAois/t4fM1LPGEfcej_ytStllHGeERXSVygGMgCLcBGAs/s640/A1.jpg" width="640" height="450" data-original-height="712" data-original-width="1010"></div>
<p> </p>
<div>And there's a great deal of consideration of how people will get around with millions of extra people in essentially the same amount of space (as an investor, I've always gone for train links to the City or walking distance from the Sydney CBD). </div>
<p> </p>
<div><img src="https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-nYjMyB370L0/WpDsgFvkAAI/AAAAAAAAoiw/tW2NMZ_pFIYAhZF5E69vfdV5TCOc_-q-ACLcBGAs/s640/A2.jpg" width="640" height="456" data-original-height="469" data-original-width="658"></div>
<p> </p>
<div>Nobody can predict the future, but one thing I will hang my hat on is a massive ongoing demand for rentals close to the middle of Sydney. </div>
<p>From the horse's mouth...</p>
<p>Between 2017 and 2046, Australia’s population is projected to increase by 11.8 million people. </p>
<div>That’s equivalent to adding a new city, roughly the size of Canberra, each year for the next 30 years. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>About 75% of this growth will occur in Sydney, Melbourne, Brisbane and Perth.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Population growth is a central driver of this change. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>In the next 30 years, Sydney’s population is projected to increase by 2.4 million people, growing to be a city of 7.4 million. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>Over the same period, Melbourne is projected to grow by 2.7 million people, to be a city of 7.3 million. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>Between now and 2046, Brisbane is projected to grow by 1.6 million people and Perth by 2.2 million people, delivering cities of just under 4 million and 4.3 million, respectively.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>This means the Brisbane and Perth of tomorrow will become cities the size of Melbourne and Sydney today. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>While Melbourne and Sydney will become cities comparable to the current size of some of the world’s most significant urban economies, operating more like the Hong Kong, New York and London of today.'</div>
<div> </div>
<div>PETE WARGENT is the co-founder of AllenWargent property buyers (London, Sydney) and a best-selling author and <a href="https://petewargent.blogspot.com/" target="_blank">blogger</a>.</div>
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Brisbane and Perth of tomorrow will be cities the size of Melbourne and Sydney today: Pete Wargent

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<div><span>Sadly an inevitable consequence of the internet age for investors has been a focus on shorter and shorter timeframes. </span></div>
<div><span><br>While extra frequency of analysis can be interesting and fun, for most investors the best results will be secured by seeing the big picture and building a long term plan around it, particularly so in property investment which is ideally suited to a longer time horizon.</span></div>
<div><span> </span></div>
<div>When it comes to population and demographic projections, there are certainly plenty of cranks making forecasts, but if you're going to pay attention to any of them, then bugrudgingly it's got to be the cranks that determine policy. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>Over the short term to June 2019, the drivers of a rebound population growth from net overseas migration are clear enough, at least according to the latest available figures from the Department of Immmigration and Border Protection (DIBP). </div>
<div> </div>
<div><a href="/images/2016/01/11/A5.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></div>
<div><img src="/images/2016/01/11/A5.jpg" alt=""></div>
<div> </div>
<div>
<div><strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">But what about for the longer term?</span></strong></div>
<div> </div>
<div>It is often said that infrastructure investment is a key driver of property price growth, and this can certainly be the case whereby the multiplier effect of new projects generate economic activity, while infrastructure can also make certain suburbs a more appealing prospect. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>Of course, we have just been through a once-in-a-century resources investment boom, which temporarily caused a spike in dwelling prices in some towns, before they <a href="https://www.smartpropertyinvestment.com.au/news/14137-6-mining-towns-go-from-boom-to-bust" target="_blank">crashed</a> again as supply responded and contractors skipped town. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>Infrastructure investment is evidently only one part of the puzzle, and it needs to be coupled with a strong and sustainable growth in population, economic activity, and household wealth. I'd further add land supply constraints to that. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>In this context I took another read of Infrastructure Australia's latest estimates and projections, so let's take a 60-second look at what they say. </div>
<div> </div>
<div><strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">"Population a key driver of economic growth" </span></strong></div>
<div> </div>
<div>The "three Ps" model of economic growth applied by the Australian Treasury has population growth at its very core: </div>
<div> </div>
<div><a href="/images/2016/01/11/B1.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></div>
<div><img src="/images/2016/01/11/B1.jpg" alt=""></div>
<div> </div>
<div>
<div>In the 2015 Intergenerational Report population growth was assumed to drive for <strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">almost half</span></strong> of the projected economic growth, measured in real Gross Domestic Product (GDP), over the next four decades.</div>
<div> </div>
<div><span>Projected population figures quoted in April 2015 by the Infrastructure Australia audit background paper were somewhat higher than the equivalent figures released in 2008, and tend to mirror previous projections by the Australian Bureau of Statistics reasonably closely. </span></div>
<div><span> </span></div>
<div>Notably, it is clearly articulated that state governments are planning for their capital cities to continue taking on a continually greater share of the state's population, particularly in the most populous states.</div>
<div> </div>
<div><a href="/images/2016/01/11/B2.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></div>
<div><img src="/images/2016/01/11/B2.jpg" alt=""></div>
<div> </div>
<div><span>As such, going forward an ever greater share of the actual population growth must correspondingly take place in the capital cities, as confirmed by the projections. </span></div>
<div><span> </span></div>
<div><a href="/images/2016/01/11/B3.jpg" target="_blank"><span>Click to enlarge</span></a></div>
<div><span><img src="/images/2016/01/11/B3.jpg" alt=""></span></div>
<div> </div>
<div> </div>
<div>
<div><span>These are telling numbers indeed, but for mine it's the texture provided by the Government that is the really interesting bit:</span></div>
<div><span> </span></div>
<div><span>"Population growth is likely to have its greatest impact in Australia’s cities. Around the globe, cities are increasing their share of national population. Australia is already one of the most urbanised countries in the world. It would be unusual – if not remarkable – if Australia were to chart a materially different path from its past (or where the world is heading), at least over the next 15 years or so."</span></div>
<div><span> </span></div>
<div><strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;"><span>Looking forward</span></span></strong></div>
<div><span> </span></div>
<div><span>On the medium level projections, by 2031 Australia’s capital cities will be home to 6.4 million extra people (around 43.4 per cent more than 2011). The growth to 2061 (15.7 million persons) is around 1 million persons more than the current combined population of all of Australia’s capital cities.</span></div>
<div><span> </span></div>
<div><span>Note in particular the enormous projected growth in Greater Sydney, Melbourne, Brisbane, and Perth respectively (click to enlarge).</span></div>
<div><span> </span></div>
<div><a href="/images/2016/01/11/A4.jpg" target="_blank"><span>Click to enlarge</span></a></div>
<div><span><img src="/images/2016/01/11/A4.jpg" alt=""></span></div>
<div> </div>
<div> </div>
<div><span>Or looked at graphically.</span></div>
<div><span> </span></div>
<div><a href="/images/2016/01/11/A3.jpg" target="_blank"><span>Click to enlarge</span></a></div>
<div><span><img src="/images/2016/01/11/A3.jpg" alt=""></span></div>
<div> </div>
<div> </div>
<div><span>Looked at another way, the gradients of capital city projections show how the four largest cities are expected to garner the great bulk of the projected growth in population.</span></div>
<div><span> </span></div>
<div><a href="/images/2016/01/11/A5-1.jpg" target="_blank"><span>Click to enlarge</span></a></div>
<div><span> </span></div>
<div><span><img src="/images/2016/01/11/A5-1.jpg" alt=""></span></div>
<div> </div>
<div>
<div><span><strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">Infrastructure plans and peri-urbanisation</span></strong></span></div>
<div><span> </span></div>
<div>
<span>Projected population growth between 2011 and 2031 is evidently huge - the equivalent of an entirely new Melbourne and Brisbane combined! - while t</span><span>he projected growth to 2061 is more than all of the existing population of the capital cities cobbled together.</span>
</div>
<div><span> </span></div>
<div><span>However, according to the Australian Government, regional development and decentralisation policies tend to have a short life span, and thus regional population growth is forecast to decline as a share of the pie:</span></div>
<div><span> </span></div>
<div>
<span>"It is unclear whether governments and the Australian community would support material ongoing interventions over the long term to encourage decentralised growth. P</span><span>roposals for investment in regional areas need to be supported by rigorous and transparent analysis."</span>
</div>
<div><span> </span></div>
<div><span>A handful of areas which are close to the capital cities might be expected to grow appreciably, being "peri-urban" locations with social and economic linkages to the capital cities. These are cited as follows:</span></div>
<div><span> </span></div>
<div><a href="/images/2016/01/11/B4.jpg" target="_blank"><span>Click to enlarge</span></a></div>
<div><span><img src="/images/2016/01/11/B4.jpg" alt=""></span></div>
<div> </div>
<div> </div>
<div>
<div><span>Notes the Government: "In the absence of employment growth in these locations, ‘journey to work’ trips to and from the capital city may increase appreciably."</span></div>
<div><span> </span></div>
<div><strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">Infrastructure investment: cities are critical</span></strong></div>
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<div>The infrastructure audit background paper could hardly have been more explicit in its conclusions, so to wrap up I will simply quote it directly:</div>
<div><span> </span></div>
<div><span>"Within the capital cities, the location of new development and population growth will be critical. While the cost of providing new infrastructure in ‘greenfield areas’ is substantial, the cost of retrofitting or augmenting some infrastructure (for example transport links in tunnels) in established areas can also be high. </span></div>
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<span>With a few exceptions, the population case for expanding infrastructure networks in regional areas is less obvious. Arguments for investment in infrastructure in those areas will be driven more by social considerations."</span><br><span><br></span>While I don't agree with the intended policy - I don't originally hail from a capital city myself after all - it is abundantly clear that infrastructure investment will be focussed very heavily on the capital cities. </div>
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<div>
<p><span><em>PETE WARGENT is the co-founder of <a href="https://allenwargent.com/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">AllenWargent</a> property buyers (London, Sydney) and a best-selling author and <a href="https://petewargent.blogspot.com/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">blogger</a>.</em><br></span></p>
<p><em>His latest book is <a href="https://www.bigskypublishing.com.au/Books/General-Interest/Four-Green-Houses--and-a-Red-Hotel/1015/productview.aspx" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">Four Green Houses and a Red Hotel</a>.</em></p>
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