Gladstone in a downturn, but positive medium outlook means it could be a great opportunity for investors
Gladstone has entered a downturn.
Yesterday
The market peaked in 2012, with values, rents and new supply overshooting the local area’s property fundamentals.
Much of this overshoot was influenced by the need for workers for the construction of gas and coal-related infrastructure.
Also the area, about five years ago, was undersupplied with new stock. Exaggerated rents were being paid by energy and construction workers. Many were desperate to find accommodation, often at almost any cost.
This mismatch between supply and demand, in concert with the lacklustre outlook for the markets in South East Queensland post 2008, saw investment sellers oversell Gladstone’s potential.
New supply increased and future investment returns detached from reality. A real estate bubble formed and a much needed correction has now taken place. A rapid fall in weekly rents, and in many cases, prices and sales, has occurred over the last 12 months.
Many property commentators and investors – as a result – have written Gladstone off.
Today
That is premature, and shows a distinct misunderstanding of how a property cycle, especially in a regional city, works.
At today’s prices, the city has the potential for price growth in the short-to-medium term. However, we believe that this is unlikely to happen over the next 12 to 24 months, given the current misconception of the Gladstone market and the area’s current oversupply.
Yet, now is a great time to buy investment property in Gladstone.
Prices are negotiable, rents are at the bottom of their cycle and sales volumes are likely to increase in coming years. In addition, there is a lot of stock from which to choose. Counter-cyclical investors, with the mindset to hold for a full cycle or more, should seriously look at Gladstone.
Tomorrow
Our mid-to-long term outlook for Gladstone is very positive – a rising Matusik Property Pulse™; strong population growth; high and growing underlying demand and the need for more rental property.
Job creation – despite what is reported – is improving and the area has a much lower unemployment rate when compared to the Queensland average.
Gladstone has a young demographic profile – this will drive the need for affordable homes and more attached property.
What to buy
Investors, for mine, need to buy close to the Gladstone CBD. They are better off buying attached product or small-lot homes in prime locations. In most cases, limit expenditure to $400,000 for second-hand stock and under $500,000 for a new property or off-plan purchase.
Up to $600,000 for high quality, furnished, downtown property is also worth considering.
Furnished apartments – again in the CBD – are likely to find a tenant more quickly than unfurnished product.
Final word
Price and rental growth will return to Gladstone, but this is likely to take some time. Also, when it returns, the growth tangent is likely to be much less than what the region experienced between 2009 and 2012.
A 5% per annum growth rate is more realistic and sustainable.
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Go here for the full Matusik Market Outlook Report on Gladstone.
