Median

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Most of the price data that clutters up the airways is essentially useless information.
Boffins sitting in an office in Paris look at a number which says “Australian property values rose 9% in the past year” and imagine that tells them something about conditions in the fictitious creature they call the Australian property market.
Suddenly we have the OECD telling us we’re at risk of a price correction after gazing at Australia through an out-of-focus telescope across a distance of 17,000km. Seriously, these turkeys have no right to even express an opinion. Especially as that opinion is based on a meaningless statistic.
I’ve read in the past two weeks at least five different figures purporting to describe the median cost of the home in Sydney, ranging from $750,000 to $1 million.
Most of them are fanciful and inaccurate but that doesn’t stop commentators from giving them enormous import. The walking talking ego generally known as Graham Richardson pontificated that the average Sydney home cost a million dollars and declared that no one could afford that. The statement was inherently absurd because if the Sydney market is raging and a million dollars is the median price, clearly a lot of people can afford it because half of all sales are higher than that median figure.
The bottom line is: the average, mean or median is not a million dollars. CoreLogic RP Data’s latest figures suggest the median dwelling price for Sydney is currently $752,000. The other bottom line is that this figure is meaningless and misleading when you understand that Sydney has over 700 suburbs with median house prices ranging from $345,000 to $3.46 million.
It’s particularly meaningless and misleading in this context: first-home buyers can’t afford to pay $752,000 therefore, according to the misinformed, we have an affordability crisis which means we need to scrap negative gearing, ban foreign investment, cut out all first-home buyer grants because apparently they just inflate prices, introduce lending restrictions, call another federal parliamentary inquiry because the 18-month inquiry recently concluded didn’t discover anything new and savage the Federal Treasurer for daring to suggest a good job enhances your prospects of getting a loan.
The end result: truth, accuracy, balance and fair play just took another hammering - but, hey, lots of newspapers got sold.
The latest edition of Market Monitor from the Real Estate Institute of Queensland highlights how unhelpful it is to quote a single price statistic for an entire large city.
CoreLogic RP Data says the home value index for the Greater Brisbane area rose 3.1% in the past 12 months. Domain says the median house price increased 2.8%.
What do you deduce from that? That the Brisbane market is lukewarm? That growth in the city is anaemic at best? Richardson, in his irresponsible outburst on Sky News last week, declared Brisbane had recorded “no growth for years”.
You have to look deeper, otherwise you’re wasting everyone’s time.
Market Monitor shows the median house price for the Brisbane City local government area rose 7.2% in the year to April. So the Brisbane City Council area has been better than the wider Brisbane metropolitan area. 
And many individual suburbs did considerably better than that. Northgate grew 12.7% and Holland Park 13.5%, while Chermside rose 18.4% and Nudgee 17.3%.
A scan of the figures suggests that the middle market suburbs of Brisbane City have done much better than the LGA average, which in turn in much higher than the Greater Brisbane average result.
But media quotes the area average rise, which creates a quite misleading impression.
If you take the time to look through a report like Market Monitor, there are hundreds of stories about suburban and town markets, all doing different things influenced by local events - oblivious to the level of interest rates or the ignorance of media talking heads or the pompous proclamations of twits working for a bureaucracy based in Europe.
TERRY RYDER is the founder of <a href="https://www.hotspotting.com.au/" target="_blank">hotspotting.com.au</a>. You can <a href="https://mailto:ryder@hotspotting.com.au" target="_blank">email him</a> or follow him on <a href="https://twitter.com/hotspotting" target="_blank">Twitter.</a> 
Terry was joined by Property Observer editor at large Jonathan Chancellor yesterday for a webinar on why research is the key to successful property investing in 2015. You can download slides and audio from the webinar here.
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terryryder-YECXbqmri2

Accurate price data or useless information? Terry Ryder

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Manly's median apartment price has continued to decline despite the drastic turnaround in the Sydney property market.
The <a href="/developments/manly-nsw-2095">median price for a unit in Manly</a> is now $1,276,000, some $100,000 down on its late 2018 median peak.
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2019/10/14/Manly%20CoreLogic.jpg" alt="">
Manly saw exponential growth since the start of the 2012 boom.
At the end of 2012, the median price for an apartment in Manly was just $690,000. It is now nearly double that figure over seven years.
To find out more about the property market in Manly, including housing medians and rental performance, <a href="/developments/manly-nsw-2095">click here</a>.
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Manly median apartment price down $100,000 in nine months

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Dwelling values across Adelaide fell over the three months to July, according to the August CoreLogic RP Data Housing Market and Economic Review.
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The median house price for Adelaide is $425,000. Unit median prices are $342,000.
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Adelaide dwelling values in three-month fall: CoreLogic RP Data

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Perth now boasts 39 suburbs with a median value of $1 million or more, latest figures from CoreLogic RP Data show.
 
The $3.5 million Peppermint Grove again tops the WA list, ranked six on the national list, behind Sydney’s Point Piper at $5.5 million.
 
<a href="/news">Peppermint Grove’s</a> nearest local rival is <a href="/news">Dalkeith</a> with a median house value of $2.47 million.
 
Australia now 437 suburbs on the list. Perth has 12 within the top 200.
 
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PERTH SUBURBS WITH $1 MILLION MEDIAN VALUE
6th nationally Peppermint Grove (Peppermint Grove LGA) $3.5 million
20 Dalkeith (Nedlands) $2,47m
73 Cottesloe (Cottesloe) $1,82m
88 City Beach (Cambridge) $1,73m
114 Swanbourne (Nedlands) $1,61m
115 Nedlands (Nedlands) $1,61m
156 Applecross (Melville) $1,46m
179 Floreat (Cambridge) $1,39m
181 Mount Claremont (Nedlands) $1,39m
191 East Perth (Perth) $1,35m
194 Churchlands (Stirling) $1,35m
200 Mosman Park (Mosman Park) $1,34m
 
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Perth's priciest 12 suburbs: CoreLogic RP Data

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CoreLogic RP Data’s head of research Tim Lawless puts Sydney’s current house median at around $900,000 - and approaching its peak for this property cycle.
He doesn't see it getting to $1 million, instead likely to plateau between now and 2016.
“I think growth will moderate based on conditions such as investors now finding it harder to get loans and the general feeling the market has hit its peak,” he told News Ltd this week.
“The big risk is that people continue to buy into this market expecting price growth to continue at the current rate. I just don’t think that will happen.”
He has calculated 3.4% for the June quarter and 17.9% for the year, noting the CoreLogic RP Data method of calculating the value of all houses in the greater Sydney area was more comprehensive than simply focusing on a small sample of properties that had sold over a certain period.
“We have a mathematical algorithm that estimates values based on the number of bedrooms, bathrooms, parking spaces, land size, geographical location, whether the house has a pool and so on,” Mr Lawless said.
“We break all these factors down and give them each a value. This stops the median from moving around a lot based on what stock is being sold.”
CoreLogic RP Data figures show there are 433 Sydney suburbs where house medians are less than $1 million after sales over the past 12 months, compared to 272 with $1 million plus medians.
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$1 million house median not in sight for Sydney: CoreLogic RP Data

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The Real Estate Institute of Victoria puts the median house price in the Melbourne metropolitian area at $706,000 for the three months to June 30, up from $671,000 in the March quarter.
Melbourne's buoyant property market rocketed past the $700,000 median price ceiling for the city for the first time ever.
REIV chief executive efficer Enzo Raimondo noted its represented a quarter-on-quarter increase of more than 5%.
The quarterly increase matched the December 2014 growth.
“A number of factors have contributed to the strong result," he said.
"A record number of auction sales in the first half of the year, low stock on market, high levels of migration and record low interest rates have been good news for sellers.”
Growth was widespread across Melbourne, with inner suburbs recording an increase of 6.2%, and homes in middle and outer suburbs increasing 5 per cent.
He added that the number of million dollar suburbs across the city skyrocketed to 78 this quarter – 16 more than in the March quarter.
“These ranged from Abbotsford in the inner north, to Fairfield in the north-east, to Heidelberg in the outer east and Hughesdale in the south-east,” he said.
Regional Victoria also had price increases, with the median price of a home in regional Victoria also increasing in the June quarter, up 1.5% to $346,000.
"The regional market has rebounded over March figures as more homebuyers take advantage of affordable properties on offer in regional Victoria.”
 
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 For more information click <a href="https://www.reiv.com.au/News_Publications/Latest-News?newsID=%7B78A675EE-0B01-498B-AFD6-4C770001D862%7D&amp;title=Melbourne%20breaks%20yet%20another%20house%20price%20record" target="_blank">here</a>.
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Inner Melbourne spurt assists metro median to $706,000: REIV

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Sydney is the best performing capital city over the three months to June 2015, according to new figures released by CoreLogic RP Data.
The CoreLogic June RP Data Hedonic Home Value Index found the most expensive city is Sydney with a median dwelling price of $772,000. The most affordable city is Hobart, with a median dwelling price of $315,000.
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Sydney best performing capital city: CoreLogic RP Data

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Melbourne property increased an average of 9% per annum between 2013/14 and 2014/15, driven by overseas migration and especially strong interstate migration that has met the supply of property that has come on the market over the last few years.
The BIS Shrapnel Residential Property Prospects 2015 to 2018 report found that the potential for continued growth in Melbourne's median house prices is limited to both oversupply and weakness in the state economy.
BIS Shrapnel senior manager and study author, Angie Zigomanis, said as a result the rate of price growth is forecast to progressively slow over the next three years, particularly as interest rate policy begins to be tightened.
“Median house price growth in Melbourne is forecast to total only 4% over the 2015 to 2018 forecast period, with a 5% rise in 2015/16 offset by a small fall in the following two years," Mr Zigomanis said.
"After accounting for inflation, prices are forecast to fall by 4% in real terms. Given the level of apartment supply due to come through, there is greater downside in the apartment sector, where the median unit price is forecast to fall by a total of4% in the three years, or 12% in real terms.”
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Melbourne market hangs on economy, oversupply: BIS Shrapnel

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Perth property prices rose 16% in the two years to June 2014 however has now declined by 3% to an estimated median house price of $580,000 in June 2015, according to a new report which found demand continuing to fall.
The BIS Shrapnel Residential Property Prospects 2015-2018 report found Perth property demand across first home buyers and investors beginning to weaken.
BIS Shrapnel senior manager and study author, Angie Zigomanis, said even net migration inflows are declining rapidly to the state.
“Consequently, vacancy rates have risen and rents have fallen, which in turn has resulted in the price decline in 2014/15,"Mr Zigomanis said.
 “Perth’s median house price is forecast to continue to fall over 2015/16 and 2016/17, and stabilise in 2017/18, when mining investment is expected to bottom out. The corresponding decline in new residential construction is expected to see the market also move back toward balance around this time. 
“Net overseas migration inflows are also slowing rapidly, having declined from 53,000 in 2011/12 to 19,000 in calendar 2014, while Western Australia will record its first annual net interstate migration outflow in 12 years in 2014/15.
Mr Zigomanis forecasts Perth’s median house price to be 3% lower by June 2018 compared to June 2015 levels, representing a decline in real terms of 10%. A similar decline is forecast for Perth’s median unit price.
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