Intention

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EXPERT OBSERVER
Consumer confidence continues to improve in September. Sentiment has lifted in four of the past five weeks.
Importantly, households are showing increased appetite for making a major household purchase.
In fact, the ANZ-Roy Morgan sub-index measure of whether it was a ‘good time to buy a major household item’ rose by 5.3 per cent to 1.8 points last week – the highest level since late June.
‘Stay-at-home’ Aussies have shown a strong desire to upgrade their homes during the pandemic. CBA credit and debit card spending on household furnishings and equipment over the week to September 11 is up 28 per cent on a year ago. And annual spending is above 30 per cent across all states and territories except Victoria (up 6.1 per cent).
Post-lockdown retail spending has been boosted by greater mobility, government payments and superannuation withdrawals. And household savings and potential tax cuts – along with closed international borders – could see pent up demand from consumers even as stimulus is tapered into year-end.
What do the reports and figures show?
Consumer sentiment – Week ended September 13
The weekly ANZ-Roy Morgan consumer confidence rating rose by 1.4 per cent to 92.4 (long-run average since 1990 is 112.6). Confidence has lifted in four of the past five weeks. Sentiment is up by 41.5 per cent since hitting record lows of 65.3 on March 29 (lowest since 1973).
Four out of five of the major components of the index rose last week:
The Commonwealth Bank (CBA) credit card data – Week ended September 11
According to Commonwealth Bank (CBA), card spending in the week to September 11 was up 4.7 per cent on a year ago, compared to a 5.2 per cent lift for the week ended September 4. Online spending rose 17.4 per cent on a year ago (previous week: +21.9 per cent), but in-store spending was down 0.6 per cent (previous week: -2.1 per cent). Victorian card spending fell by 11.3 per cent on a year ago (previous week: ‑10.3 per cent), but Tasmanian spending was up 16.4 per cent (previous week: +18.2 per cent) compared to a year ago.
CBA noted, “Annual spending growth in all jurisdictions broadly tracked sideways over the past week. Spending on eating and drinking out has firmed over the week. In‑store spending is edging higher nationally and in Victoria it looks to have passed the trough.”
The Commonwealth Bank (CBA) Household Spending Intentions Series (HSI): August
According to the CBA, “The impact of the stage 4 lockdowns in greater Melbourne throughout August are clearly evident in the CBA Household Spending Intentions series for the month. The improvement seen during July in Home Buying, Retail, Travel, Entertainment and Education spending intentions all stalled in August. Health and Fitness spending intentions picked up in August, while Motor vehicle spending intentions continued to edge higher.”
On home buying intentions: “Home buying spending intentions for August retreated from their July highs. While there was a further increase in home loan applications, Google searches related to home buying declined slightly on the month.”
On retail spending intentions: “Retail spending intentions pulled‑back in August, consistent with our high‑frequency CBA credit/debit card spending data.”
On travel spending intentions: “The recovery in Travel spending intentions stalled in August, impacted by the restrictions imposed in Victoria.”
On health &amp; fitness spending intentions: “Health &amp; fitness spending intentions picked up in August. While actual spending was a little lower on the month, Google searches related to health saw an increase.”
On entertainment spending intentions: “Entertainment spending intentions pulled‑back a little in August, led lower by declines in food (eating out) and alcohol spending on licenced premises.”
On education spending intentions: “Education spending intentions were little changed in August, with some softness in spending and in Google searches for the education sector.”
On motor vehicle purchase intentions: “Motor vehicle spending intentions picked up in August and are back in positive territory for the first time since the start of the Covid‑19 pandemic.”
Kepler index of retail sales activity – Week ended September 13
The Kepler index of retail sales reported that aggregate sales fell by 13.2 per cent last week (September 13) to be down 26.9 per cent on the year. Average transaction value rose 0.1 per cent last week to be up 22.6 per cent on a year ago. Passer-by traffic fell 1.9 per cent last week to be down 52.6 per cent on the year. The weekly store shut down rate rose to 29 per cent (prior week: 27 per cent) with Victoria’s rate at 87 per cent.
OpenTable restaurant reservations – Week ended September 13
Australian restaurant reservations were down 9 per cent on September 13 from a year earlier, firmer than the 40.7 per cent drop recorded on September 6, according to OpenTable. Sit down diners fell by 99.7 per cent in Victoria (previous: -99.9 per cent), but were up by 61.6 per cent in Queensland (previous: up 146 per cent) and up 35.2 per cent in NSW (previous: +127 per cent).
Moovit change in public transport demand – Week ended September 13
Demand for public transportation – as measured by the urban trip planning app Moovit – was mixed over the week to September 13 (compared with the pre-pandemic level of January 15) from a week earlier in most of Australia’s biggest cities:
<ul>
<li>Sydney &amp; NSW: -43.7 per cent (previous week: -43.3 per cent)</li>
<li>Perth: -32.7 per cent (previous week: -36.5 per cent)</li>
<li>Brisbane &amp; South-East Queensland: -41.5 per cent (previous week: -41.1 per cent)</li>
<li>Melbourne &amp; Victoria: -83.1 per cent (previous week: -83 per cent).</li>
</ul>
What are the implications for investors?
Consumer confidence continues to improve due to increasing mobility in virus ‘free’ states and territories. Outside of Sydney and Melbourne, Aussies are more confident about going about their daily activities with the virus all but supressed. The notable weakening in sentiment last week in the two biggest cities and virus ‘hotspots’ – Melbourne (down more than 5 per cent) and Sydney (down over 3 per cent) – suggests that consumer caution remains elevated, weighing on the broader economic recovery.
Next week’s standout data release will be much-anticipated preliminary retail trade figures for August. The CBA Household Spending Intentions survey released today suggests that retail spending intentions pulled back in August. High frequency weekly CBA card spending and the Kepler Analytics retail gauge also imply a decline in spending during the month. Of course, Melbourne entered stage 4 lockdown restrictions in August with Victorian retail spending adversely impacted by social distancing measures and temporary retail store closures. But greater mobility in the ‘virus free’ states and territories are supportive of consumption and could yet offset the decline in Victorian spending.
RYAN FELSMAN is a Senior Economis at CommSec
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Consumer spending intentions hit 11-week high: CommSec's Ryan Felsman

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The latest monthly data from the Commonwealth Bank Household Spending Intentions (HSI) Series indicates that home buying spending intentions are running at a record rate. 
CBA Chief Economist Michael Blythe said, "there are some early signs of a ‘wealth effect’ from the housing market supporting spending on motor vehicles, albeit from a very low level, as well as travel and entertainment."
This means the pick-up in dwelling prices in the second half of 2019 will continue into the first half of this year, and the residential construction downturn should be approaching bottom.
“Past cycles show that leading indicators like building approvals turn about three month after home buying intentions start to lift. A bottoming in the construction cycle would remove a major growth drag on the economy, and also helps retailing," Mr Blythe said.
Noting that retail HSI remained low, Mr Blythe commented, “the flat trend in the retail HSI remains a disappointing outcome relative to the stimulus applied via interest rate cuts, tax rebates and the upturn in dwelling prices. The zig-zag pattern for the retail HSI indicates that the ‘Black Friday’ event brought forward spending from December into November without necessarily boosting spending overall."
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Home buying intentions have reached a record high: CBA

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The latest data from the Commonwealth Bank Household Spending Intentions (HSI) series released today shows the sharp increase in home buying intentions is continuing.
CBA’s Chief Economist Michael Blythe said, “The sharp upswing in home buying intentions continues and intentions are now approaching the record highs seen in early 2017.”
Current HSI readings are consistent with an ongoing increase in dwelling prices and a bottoming out in residential construction activity.
“The ongoing improvement in the home buying intentions series indicates that the low point for residential building construction will probably be around mid 2020,” he added.
Mr Blythe said retail spending intentions show a modest improvement is in place.
“The latest edition of the Commonwealth Bank HSI series, which incorporates data to the end of October, supports the RBA’s view that the economy has reached a ‘gentle turning point’. But the improvement is quite modest given the size of tax rebates and interest rate cuts delivered in recent months,” Mr Blythe said.
“By fuelling fears about the economic outlook, rate cuts are probably blunting some of the potential boost from tax rebates and rising house prices,” he added.
Mr Blythe also noted that trends in some non-retail spending look reasonably encouraging.
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Home buying intentions approaching boomtime levels: CBA

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New research has identified a sharp decline in the number of home buyers intending to take out a home loan.
The data from Roy Morgan shows that in the three months to October 2018, 1.21 million people said that they intended to take out a home loan in the next 12 months. This represents a decline of 260,000 or 17.7% from the 1.47 million recorded over the same period last year and is a major challenge to banks in achieving new lending volumes over the coming 12 months.
These are the latest findings from Roy Morgan’s Single Source Survey (Australia) which is based on in-depth personal interviews conducted face-to-face with over 50,000 Australians per annum in their own homes, including details on over 2,500 people who intend to take out a home loan in the next 12 months.
2018 shows deteriorating level of intentions 
In the January quarter 2018, the level of home loan intentions was a very positive 7.3% of the population, representing 1.48 million people. This deteriorated significantly in the April quarter to 6.3% (1.29 million), a decline of 190,000 or 12.8%. The July and October quarters in 2018 fell further to 5.9% (1.21 million), representing an overall decline of 17.7% since the October 2017 quarter.
Intention to take out home loan in next 12 months
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2018/11/19/home%20loan%201.png" target="_blank">Click here</a> to enlarge
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2018/11/19/home%20loan%201.png" alt="">
Source: Roy Morgan Single Source (Australia). 15 months to October 2018, n = 62,413. Base: Australians 14+.
First home borrowers a drag on intention levels
The reason that home loan intention levels have fallen over the past year is due to the decline in first home intenders. In the October 2018 quarter only 411,000 first home borrowers intend to take out a loan in the next 12 months, this is down by 44.5% on the 740,000 recorded a year earlier.
The largest group currently of intenders are those existing borrowers who plan to switch their home loan to a different provider. This segment accounts for 549,000 people or 45.4% of all intenders and has held steady, having recorded 544,000 at the same time last year.
The biggest gain over the last 12 months was in the group that have had a loan in the past but wish to move and take out a loan. They number 249,000 currently, an increase of 64,000 or 34.6% over the year
Intention to take out home loan in next 12 months – By type of intender
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2018/11/19/home%20loan%202.png" target="_blank">Click here</a> to enlarge
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2018/11/19/home%20loan%202.png" alt="">
Source: Roy Morgan Single Source (Australia). 3 months to October 2017, n=12,054; 3 months to October 2018, n=12,327.
Base: Australians 14+.
Norman Morris, Industry Communications Director, Roy Morgan says: 
“The decline in home loan intenders over the last year is likely to have a major impact on banks in the coming year, particularly as the drop has come from first home buyers who are major generators of increasing volumes. The reduction in first home buyers is likely to come from a number of potential reasons, including uncertainty as a result of declining housing values, likely interest rate movements, mortgage stress and job risks. 
“The current high level of negative publicity given to borrowing by the Finance Royal Commission is also likely to be impacting on both the supply and demand for home loans. The potential for the tightening of lending criteria and issues relating to mortgage brokers are just some of the likely issues to have a negative impact in this market.
“Data used in this release covers only a small part of what is available from Roy Morgan regarding understanding home loan borrowers and those who intend to borrow in the near future. To find out more regarding long term trends, brands and in-depth profiling, simply ask Roy Morgan.”
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Intention

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