Home buying intentions have reached a record high: CBA
The latest monthly data from the Commonwealth Bank Household Spending Intentions (HSI) Series indicates that home buying spending intentions are running at a record rate.
CBA Chief Economist Michael Blythe said, "there are some early signs of a ‘wealth effect’ from the housing market supporting spending on motor vehicles, albeit from a very low level, as well as travel and entertainment."
This means the pick-up in dwelling prices in the second half of 2019 will continue into the first half of this year, and the residential construction downturn should be approaching bottom.
“Past cycles show that leading indicators like building approvals turn about three month after home buying intentions start to lift. A bottoming in the construction cycle would remove a major growth drag on the economy, and also helps retailing," Mr Blythe said.
Noting that retail HSI remained low, Mr Blythe commented, “the flat trend in the retail HSI remains a disappointing outcome relative to the stimulus applied via interest rate cuts, tax rebates and the upturn in dwelling prices. The zig-zag pattern for the retail HSI indicates that the ‘Black Friday’ event brought forward spending from December into November without necessarily boosting spending overall."
