Strategies to compete with overseas buyers
Somehow when we talk about the biggest phenomenon in Inner Melbourne home buying, Chinese nationals, their spending power and the apprehension that is increasing out there among some home buyers when competing against overseas buyers, we get diverted from the main game.
The main game, in our mind, is not the Chinese nationals themselves. It is how they as a group have been changing the face of Melbourne home buying, particularly since 2009, and how you need to deal with the associated price issues that overseas wealth (demand) and reducing housing stock (supply) will have on you and/or your children’s current and future home buying plans.
What has been happening in the market in the last five years (post-GFC) is more about demand, supply and price than about Chinese nationals. Big picture-wise, the price and supply changes we are seeing would have happened eventually due to organic population growth. However, right now the overseas market, and in particular the wealth and actions of Chinese nationals, are significantly accelerating the price and supply issues through their demand.
Overseas buyers are not buying every home, everywhere. Their effect is much more like a snowball rolling down a mountain; in some markets this has turned into an avalanche, whereas in others it is still just a small snowball rolling down a mountain.
As home buyers you need to deal with this, just as you need to deal with agents, auctions and other nuances of the Melbourne market.
Overseas buyers are not buying every home, everywhere. Their effect is much more like a snowball rolling down a mountain; in some markets this has turned into an avalanche, whereas in others it is still just a small snowball rolling down a mountain.
The effect of overseas buyers is best evidenced by the different strengths and bidder depth in the Inner East markets versus the Bayside markets.
The Inner East market is where Chinese national bidding is the most significant.
- Inner East had a far shorter GFC period in 2008/2009 than Bayside
- Inner East had minor price drops compared to Bayside in the GFC and in 2011/12
- Inner East has stronger price per square metre land prices across the board (except absolute Brighton waterfront)
- Inner East has changed streetscapes in many areas. with new builds specifically aimed at the Chinese national market, e.g. Balwyn and North Balwyn.
Short-term and understanding the changing market nuances
As buyers you need strategies to compete against wealthy overseas buyers now and to buy well generally now. You also need to understand as buyers that EOIs are set up in a number of cases for Chinese nationals and other overseas buyers. You need to manage that if the home you want to buy is being sold through an expressions of interest campaign.
You need to understand how Chinese nationals and other overseas buyers value land and buildings, so you can compete effectively.
You need to understand how different cultural influences affect private sale and EOI negotiations and you need to know how to prepare and bid at auction when competing against overseas buyers.
If you don’t, or your strategy is to wait, then we think you may have issues, as we have tried to illustrate in the above diagram.
But it’s not just about you buying a home now. What effect will this significant influx of wealth have on your children buying homes?
Longer term solutions and a different strategy
As buyer advocates, a large part of our business has always been buying generational homes for families to live in and pass on. We have acted many times for local and overseas clients, including Chinese nationals, with this as a key desired outcome.
An increasing market segment for us (with a slightly different take, but same desired outcome) is the purchase of smaller, well-located family homes through super funds.
These $1 million plus homes are bought as quasi-investments and sit in super funds with the view they can return some cash and provide some growth in the medium term; but ultimately they are purchased for our client’s children as a hedge against being priced out of the market.
Generational Homes for you and your children
Personally my family lives in a three home estate in Brighton with grandparents and parents and children. This has been set up like this to assist future generations to remain in the area (if they so choose).
It was relatively easy for my generation in the 1970s and 80s to move from Outer Melbourne (Doncaster was then Outer) to Inner Melbourne (Malvern then Brighton).
But how easy will it be for our children to find a home? Our children may well be the first generation that is living in poorer accommodation as adults than they grew up in as children.
Unless our children are rocket scientists with an entrepreneurial bent, or they get parental help, they will be moving further away from Inner Melbourne on affordability grounds. Or they will be living nearby but in apartments.
In moving further away from Inner Melbourne your children will also be moving further away from infrastructure, transport, school choice, the footy, restaurants and you.
We suggest you develop strategies now.
We are not for or against overseas buying, just as we are not for or against first home buying grants or for or against negative gearing. Our job is not to debate. We see our job as raising the issues and helping our clients find solutions. We are buyer agents operating in the Top End marketplace.
We feel this best helps you, the buyer, consider your options now and into the future.
Mal writes weekly auction reports, advice and in-depth market analysis on James' website.
