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In our previous article on expressions of interest (EOIs), we described this form of property sale as being <a href="https://www.google.com/url?q=https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/residential/the-high-stakes-poker-game-of-expressions-of-interest/2014021967905&amp;sa=U&amp;ei=hNsgU5DfGJDqoASAloLQCQ&amp;ved=0CAYQFjAA&amp;client=internal-uds-cse&amp;usg=AFQjCNGhJuGFLvqV_VYBXtRh5uCw1aeSkg" target="_blank">a bit like a game of poker with high stakes and few or no rules</a>.  EOIs can also unfold very differently depending on the agency involved and on the dynamics of the situation making them a challenge for the unprepared buyer.

Here are a couple of examples that show just how differently EOIs can pan out:

22 Rowland Street, Kew

<img alt="" src="/images/stories/2014/03/13/kew-march-13-one.jpg">

22 Rowland Street, <a href="https://www.urban.com.au/property-observer" target="_blank">Kew</a> (pictured above) was a quite extraordinary property and we were curious as to what its eventual value would be.

So what happened in the end?

[smartcode_project:default project_id=31282]

Well, by March 1, the agents Kay and Burton had received expressions from four interested parties. Three of these were invited to a Boardroom discussion. This was a little unusual in that the seller’s reserve had not already been met.

The three parties competed at this Boardroom discussion at the mid $4 millions level, until the highest bidder was established. That party was then negotiated with exclusively until an agreement was reached. The final purchase price is confidential but it was in the ballpark of $5 million.

38 Cochrane Street, Brighton

<img alt="" src="/images/stories/2014/03/13/brighton-march-13-one.jpg">

A quite different scenario unfolded with another EOI campaign that we were involved in, for 38 Cochrane Street (pictured above), which came to a conclusion the following day.

This property shared some similarities with Rowland Street – it too was <a href="https://www.james.net.au/rating/38-Cochrane-Street-BRIGHTON" target="_blank">an excellent and unusual home</a> and the vendors had decided to sell it through an EOI campaign with Kay and Burton as the agency.

It too had four bidders. But beyond that, the way things unfolded at Cochrane Street was very, very different.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=25425]

For a start Cochrane Street had a quote, of $3.25 million plus, whereas 22 Rowland did not.

More importantly this EOI campaign did not go the distance. The closing date was March 11, but an offer of $3.5m was put forward two weekends before the closing date.

Another difference is that in this case the buyer offer was acceptable to the vendor. The home was therefore declared by the agents as being “on the market”.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=29974]

It also triggered a faster resolution process than 22 Rowland St Kew. While the Boardroom auction had initially been set down for Monday, after some behind-the-scenes discussions mid way through Sunday afternoon, that was changed to Sunday evening.

At 8.00 pm on Sunday evening, in the home, four interested parties – including us – turned up and all bid until 38 Cochrane was sold “under the hammer” for a confidential amount in the ball park of $4 million.

Implications for buyers

As you can see then, just in these two examples we have two very different methods within the EOI via the boardroom auction resolution concept. These have important ramifications for buyers.

<ul>
<li>One was “on the market” before the bidding started, and one was not. When a home is not “on the market” there can be traps for new players.</li>
</ul>
<ul>
<li>One was concluded well before the EOI closing date and one was concluded two days before. The difference here was the element of surprise from the buyer versus the planned strategies from the seller.</li>
</ul>
<ul>
<li>One was sold publicly in front of all bidders and one was not. Both would have put incredible pressures on people not used to this form of dealing. Try sitting around a table or in the same room with three others who are politely trying to beat you to a pulp and you will start to get the feeling of what a boardroom auction is designed to do.</li>
</ul>
[smartcode_project:default project_id=94079]

And there are other ways of conducting EOIs

<ul>
<li>EOIs can work via inviting best offers, which means you all put in your offers in writing and the highest wins. It doesn’t always quite pan out quite like that, however, which is where it gets tricky.</li>
</ul>
<ul>
<li>You can also have EOI via a private negotiation</li>
</ul>
<ul>
<li>And of course plenty of EOIs don’t actually sell.</li>
</ul>
We have been involved since last year with another EOI Kay and Burton campaign on a totally different property at around the same $5 million price point – and no resolution has taken place yet. As late as last week we were in discussions across the table with both the seller and the “attempting buyers”. This is not a criticism of the process, this is a fact of life. This last meeting took place on a Saturday evening with directors of James Buyer Advocates and Kay and Burton present – so at least both agents and advocates are still trying.

But wait there is more

These are examples of EOIs conducted by Kay and Burton. That’s just one agency. Other agencies we have been involved, such as Fletcher’s, Jellis Craig, RT Edgar, and Hocking Stuart, operate EOIs very differently again. They all have different methods for EOI and the large majority of them are not in writing.

So in summary, expressions of interest are subject to:

<ol>
<li>Big variances within the agency</li>
	<li>Big variations across different agencies</li>
	<li>Changes in the “rules” as you go through the process</li>
</ol>
If you think this process is designed to be transparent and fair to the buyer then you completely misunderstand the concepts behind the process. Not that this is a criticism; after all, the selling agents are not working for you the buyer, they are working for the seller – and whatever works for them is doing the job.

So why would a seller or a buyer get involved in an EOI anyway?

Seller

Often in a sale – auction or otherwise – there is one standout buyer. Conducting an auction campaign with a skilled lone buyer (or buyers’ agent) doesn’t always get the best result for the seller. An auction works best when there are multiple buyers at a certain level. But because an EOI is not transparent – you can’t see any other buyers in action – and there is no real time limit, that can work well for the seller as long as a skilled selling agent is involved.

Buyer

If the home you want is for sale by EOI you have no choice but to be involved. But hopefully you can read between the lines to see some of the strategies of the buyers who eventually won 22 Rowland and 38 Cochrane. Those strategies were very clear and distinct and planned and well-executed, resulting in the desired result.
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maljames-vHwm28JUAa

Expressions of interest: How the process really works and the implications for buyers and sellers

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Last week we addressed some of the key issues facing younger homebuyers. This week, as promised, we’ve got some practical solutions.
Home buying and these suggested solutions are not for all young people (sub 45). But sitting on your backside, doing another tertiary course, or hoping a magical answer will come from your iPhone is also not the way for every young homebuyer either.
Yes, Australian society is presiding over a system that is unfair on you as young homebuyers.
Australian Society is taking away young people’s housing supply and increasing competitive demand through negative gearing, wealthy immigration and through paying no attention to regional infrastructure. Young people need to push forward a new batch of leaders with ‘we’ ideas instead of ‘me’ ideas and demand change. You need to get out on the streets and protest until you find leaders who can even up the ledger between older and younger Australians but the revolution may take 20 years and you as a young homebuyer can’t afford to wait forever to enter the property market.
Waiting for the market to ease never works.
No easing of the market will assist you to any noticeable degree. If you wait for any future government intervention to save you, your now 6-year-old child may be 26 before you can afford to buy. Your 16-year-old may be a 36-year-old.
You have to take action yourself. Wait for the market to change and you’ll pay the price. Please don’t confuse this statement with passing on buying the wrong home and then continuing to look for the right one in a patient, logical manner.
So our suggestion is don’t focus on the unfairness of negative gearing, super funds, Asian investing, well-off Baby Boomers and private family wealth. Focus on the fact that, this weekend, there are 300 people out there trying to buy the 30 good homes in inner to middle Melbourne on offer.
Yep 270 of those people are going to be unhappy – you need to be one of the winning 30 buyers this weekend or next weekend or later in the year.
So in Inner Melbourne right now; you as a young homebuyer are in a fight, like the wildebeest of Serengeti in a drought. There is limited grass and you need to avoid the predators (dodgy buying and selling agents, dodgy financial planners, dodgy brokers and dodgy advice which may come from well-intentioned people like your friends and relatives). Other predators are negative gearers, super funders and wealthy overseas migrants – not to mention your fellow young homebuyers.
Ok, all this negative and hard stuff is there, but don’t let it overwhelm you. Acknowledge it and move on. Many wildebeest see bad things, but the strong and the smart live on.
<a href="https://marketnews.com.au/2015/06/solutions-for-young-homebuyers/number-of-melbourne-homes-597x437/" rel="attachment wp-att-51096"><img class="aligncenter size-large wp-image-51096" src="https://marketnews.com.au/wp-content/uploads/number-of-melbourne-homes-597x437-597x437.jpg" alt="number-of-melbourne-homes-597x437" width="597" height="437"></a>
Our Bidderman statistics (bidders per auction) show that on good homes there are consistently 6 to 10 bidders per well-priced suburb median Inner Melbourne home above a million dollars. It’s the same or even more below $1M.
Not every young homebuyer can be a winner – there are simply not enough good quality Inner Melbourne homes to satisfy demand. This is the mindset I think, or I hope Joe Hockey was trying to espouse. It’s up to you.
So get the right mindset – it’s up to you or you’ll be living in Whoop Whoop West. And when you try and sell in Whoop Whoop West in 10 years, to be closer to schools, the prices in Inner Melbourne could be even more unattainable.
Get the right plan and then go after the right position, right home and right price. 
Get a deposit and get multiple funding sources – banks, relatives, tenants, partner and so on.
I’m not a great saver, more a forced one and I care little about superannuation – which may or may not be a wise move now I’m hitting the twilight years!
I’ve think I’ve worked hard (bought over 1000 homes), had good jobs, lived in secure housing near the city, travelled, raised some great kids, had good family support and a good life (lot more to come I hope). I’ve lived off good income, at times overdrafts, parental help in the early days and growth allowed by negative gearing in the latter days. Our family has been lucky, but we’ve also made our own luck. The one money thought that stands out for me: good capital growth and a good job has given us a good good life and covered over a lot of my life mistakes and money sins.
Saving is good for many and recommended, but my point is there is more than one way to skin a cat (isn’t that an awful saying) and to fund a home. Such as:
*Parents (1) – They are your best chance for help with a deposit and loan guarantees. But you may have to sell them on the idea of helping you as they’ll want to protect themselves as they get older as well. Tell them if they don’t want to drive a hour to see the grandkids then you will need help buying closer (ok, not next door but maybe only 15 minutes away) – pull on the heart strings and then pull on their purse strings.
*Parents (2) – Start hassling them to buy investment homes. They can make their retirement better by buying and renting back to you. These investments build wealth and income and you help each other. It’s the Greek/Italian, Chinese and Jewish way and it works. If you are worried about family arguments, get a written legal agreement, such as a formal lease.
<ul>
<li>* for both of the above, you can’t expect (well you can, but why should they) your parents to do it all. You have to help yourself; to save, maybe get a second job and yes, you may have to move further out (just not too far and good 3P’s), to buy your first home and live in it for 5 to 10 years.</li>
</ul>
Get a good job. Joe Hockey is right–please, I don’t barrack for any political party–unless Pendles or Clokey are running for PM. If you want to be a Buddhist, vegetarian, charity-giving monk then hats off to you; but in all likelihood you won’t be living with three kids in a Hawthorn semi-detached period home. Please I know this sounds harsh–but there is validity to Joe Hockey’s comment – get a job that pays. Sales, Real Estate, Marketing, Small Business...or get a second job, or do this plus ask your parents for help and maybe negatively gear. Do what it takes, and do it sooner rather than later, if buying a good home is an important goal of yours.
 Get creative. Buy the home you can’t afford to live in now by buying and negatively gearing now. Put a tenant in and live at home with Mum and Dad. Or buy a home and live in somebody else’s home while they rent your property. Make sure agreements meet tax laws, but negative gearing on a good capital growth home is such a powerful tool. You need it to beat overseas bidding and if you can get some growth in the next ten years before you can afford to move in, you will have put hundreds of thousands of dollars into your back pocket. And it’s legal and mostly tax free (if you’re smart about it). Yes, of course there are risks, but sometimes to get into the housing market you need to take some risks, even if there is no real safety net.
Get a plan and a process that works.
Price, property and position. These are the three ‘Ps’ you need to keep in mind when planning to buy a property.
Median Price for Precinct, Home with Land, House with a liveable floor plan and all in a position that is near infrastructure.
The knowing is not rocket science – the rocket science, in 2015, comes in the getting.
Have clarity on what you want. Is a particular property really the home for you?
List the financial and emotional outcomes you want from your home under the price, property and position headings. At the end your PPP plan, as a starting point, shouldn’t be more complicated than three sentences. It’s simple but many people don’t work out what they want before buying – they don’t have a plan.
However, avoid plans from financial planners, bankers and seminars – if they involve high risk deals such as off the plans and new apartments – these do not work for young homebuyers.
Remember the FFFs too – five-year, flexible and future-proof. In 2000, a young buyer bought a Docklands apartment for $507,500. They sold it in 2014 for $576,000. At the same time another young buyer spent $493,000 on a family home in Glen Iris. They sold it in 2014 for $1.5 million. <a href="https://www.james.net.au/jba_mhbguide_20_web.pdf"> </a>
Once you have your plan, assess, value and negotiate – eg follow a proven process.
But, just as they don’t plan, many people don’t stick to a process either. And many people can’t negotiate.
Get a professional
My next piece of advice is the advice I would give you if you were having an operation, going to court or starting a business and that is to get a professional. The facts prove themselves. A good professional property advisor will help you.<a href="https://marketnews.com.au/documents/May_Results.xlsx.pdf"> </a>
People think you simply buy a house by sticking your hand up at auction. But only 25%-30% of the properties we bought in May were bought under the hammer. 70-75% weren’t. They were negotiations.
People baulk at paying a 1% fee for an advocate’s services, but while you wait and wait to buy a home, the market goes up. In the past few months some house prices have gone up 10-20% and many buyers are:
<ol>
<li>still not in a home </li>
<li>having to find 10% to 20% more</li>
</ol>
This is all because they felt they couldn’t afford good professional help – when indeed it would have paid for itself 10 or 20 times over in the last few months and perhaps 100 times over a 7 year period. Include it in your bank loan.
Buyer advocates are widely – and wisely – used in Europe and the US.  But most Australians think they can buy a home by themselves because that’s what Mum and Dad did. That was a different time and a different market. It might have worked in 1985 but, for many, it doesn’t work in 2015. You either don’t buy, or you end up buying a home nobody else wants at a price that nobody else was prepared to pay for it.
This week I met Hard Luck Harry and his wife, Hard Luck Harriet. They’ve bid 5 times on homes in the last two years and felt nothing was going right. I made one suggestion – when nothing is going right – go left. Try something different. Hire an experienced, reputable buyer advocate / buying agent.
Yes, we mainly buy properties in the $2m to $6m bracket, but most of the issues are similar for young homebuyers. Most of our clients have affordability issues. Almost everybody we work with has a limited budget, too.
Make good decisions and take action.
Good decisions. It’s all about the decisions you make. Isn’t all of life like that? If you decide not to make a plan, not to get some professional help, not to work hard and not to do your research they are your decisions – and they are bad decisions if you want to buy a good home.
This is what a James Report contains. You need to build your own excel databases to be able to do something like this.
<ol>
<li>Ask questions of your plan</li>
<li>Assess the property (due diligence)</li>
<li>Work through values, not just what the agent says</li>
<li>Get a negotiation strategy that works</li>
</ol>
<a href="https://marketnews.com.au/documents/James_Report_2015.pdf"> </a>
<a href="https://marketnews.com.au/documents/James_Report_2015.pdf" rel="attachment wp-att-51099"><img class="aligncenter size-large wp-image-51099" src="https://marketnews.com.au/wp-content/uploads/JamesReportResults-379x448-379x448.jpg" alt="JamesReportResults-379x448" width="379" height="448"></a>
Finally, I’ll leave you with home-buying wisdom from the Melbourne Homebuyers Guide:
1. Happy spouse, happy house.
2. History repeats itself unless you break the cycle by breaking your habits.
3. Good decisions and bad decisions take the same amount of time and angst – only the quality of the prep is different. Get those 3P’s (price, property type and most importantly position) spot on.
4. Time heals or hides nothing in Melbourne property, it only accentuates.
5. No definition of value maintains its rigour for all people, except value to you; and
6. In negotiation, the closer you get and the more you talk about money, the further you drift from getting what you want.
 and my new No 7. Get the right mindset – its up to you.
Mal writes weekly auction reports, advice and in-depth market analysis on <a href="https://www.jamesbuyeradvocates.com.au/" target="_blank">James' website</a>.
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High risk new apartments should be avoided by young homebuyers: Mal James

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On the subject of off-markets, we buy a fair number – but we reject an awful lot more than we buy.
For the inexperienced buyer, many off-markets are not what they are cracked up to be (by the agents). A number of inexperienced buyers are lured by the romance of an off-market – you know that secret listing that only you know about? However, well down the track the inexperienced buyer can often find that the property was not really for sale.
In other words, an off-market home may look like a duck and you may be told that it is a duck, but it doesn’t always walk like a duck or quack like a duck. And if you can’t buy it, then it isn’t a duck.
How can that be? After all, the agent told you this off-market home was for sale and even took you there. That may be so, but he may be using you just to get a future listing. Or the seller may have told the agent that if he can get 50% more than market <a class="st_tag internal_tag" href="https://marketnews.com.au/tag/value/" title="Posts tagged with value" rel="tag">value</a> he may deal. In these two circumstances we consider the home is really not for sale.
To find out whether an off-market home is really for sale, you need to ask four questions.
Question number one: Does the agent have an authority to sell this home and what is written on the authority? If the agent can’t say yes then it’s not a duck. We recommend you are very careful in your dealings with that agent until they have an authority.
Question number two: Can I have access to the home? If the agent replies that the owner wants a really quiet sale and doesn’t want anybody going through the home or anyone else to know about it, that doesn’t sound like a duck. If you can’t get reasonable access for valuers, for buyer agents or for pest and building inspectors or architects, then it isn’t a duck. The off-market is not really for sale, as any reasonable seller would give you reasonable and timely access.
Question number three: Ask to see the contracts. If you want to put in a reasonable offer and the seller won’t prepare a basic contract (which takes no more than 72 hours and less than $1500 on most normal homes), then this deal is not walking like a duck and quite possibly it’s not really for sale. I wouldn’t make my final offer until I had contracts, no matter how time compelling everything seems to be.
Question number four: Is there an asking price? If the agents answers something like: “Well, she wants $3,000,000 I think. She is being very cagey. Why don’t you just put an offer in and we can go from there?”; and then if you put an offer in and the response is: “It’s not enough”, and then you ask the agent: “okay how much is enough, what does the seller want”, and no clear answer comes from the agent, heaps of excuses, but nothing in writing – guess what, it’s not a duck! It’s not really for sale, so move on – you are wasting your time for now.
Read over page for four signs to help you know if an off-market home is truly for sale
<hr class="system-pagebreak">
We do not pursue off-market homes if we have made good offers and nothing concrete comes back to us. The home is not for sale now – the seller may be just bored an looking for entertainment, wanting to get a “free val” or trying to appease the agent who is pressuring him or her.
You can tell whether off-market home is for sale if:
<ol>
<li>The agent has a written authority to sell</li>
<li>You can get good access</li>
<li>There are or will soon be contracts if negotiations get going</li>
<li>It has a price</li>
</ol>
Even though off-markets may appear very attractive because they are “secret”, if you are a real buyer, it’s important that you only spend your emotional efforts on off-market homes that are really for sale. While you are looking to the left at an off-market that is not really for sale, you may be missing out on an on-market that is drifting down your right side.
So remember the four rule duck test for off-markets and quack, quack, welcome back – let the early spring season bloom for all buyers and sellers.
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When an "off market sale" isn't really up for sale

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Bubble Talk seems to have eased off (finally) as most headline avoiding commentators acknowledge we are not in a bubble, if a bubble is defined by illogical price increases and/or unsustainable longer term prices.
Yes we are in a run of price increases (beginning in the 1900’s – pushing along since the GFC 2009 recovery, accelerating further since October 2012 and the foot to the floor since Christmas); but the price increases have been largely due to deep overseas demand as the world says “Melbourne – you are an International Property Market we want to invest in”.
At some time the market will ease, it will have falls and that would more than likely be caused by changes in migration/population/overseas demand. That could be tomorrow and if it does, then prices will drop.
The government has begun to tinker around the edges trying to control this boom, by getting banks to alter interest rates for investors. As far as Inner Melbourne homes go, this should have minimal effect on the market, just as the stamp duty tinkerings of a few months ago, as predicted, have made zero difference to overseas investment.
We are not saying that trying to ease the boom is not a good a thing, its just the real driver of our current Inner Melbourne market boom is Asian investment combined with increasing wealthy migration / population, not local investor interest rates. All altering interest rates for locals will do, is make it easier for Asian investors to buy.
Understanding these concepts is critical for buyers – as acting or not acting based on fear, rather than reason usually means poorer decisions.
Example: For decades Western society as a whole has believed that fat is bad and fat makes you fat. Accordingly we have all made dietary decisions based on that assumption and as a society we have got fatter and fatter, despite not wanting to. “Bubble” headlines are very similar to “Fat” headlines if it means you as a buyer make poor decisions, based on false assumptions.
If/when a significant market change occurs, it will be due to a lessening of demand (it will be understandable); not due to a bursting of some artificial, unexplainable bubble. It is important to differentiate that there is no truth based on fact, that we are in an artificial or illogical price situation as far as Inner Melbourne houses go.
There are very real and logical reasons why prices are increasing and it’s called overseas demand and limited local supply.
Yes a boring headline, but a truthful one. It’s important for buyers to understand the current market, so as they can make informed decisions; not ones based on the more exciting, but less accurate headlines of Bubble, Bubble, Price Falls and Trouble.
Our advice to buyers is when the developing markets of India, China and others start to falter and the money flow to Australia changes and both Liberal and Labour espouse restrictive migration and population policies; then, as buyers we would be sitting up and taking notice re possible long term land value deflation; as we saw in Japan (no migration, no population increases). Until then, the more pressing problem is how are we going to secure our dream home in Inner Melbourne in the next year.
Word of warning: Please understand our comments are based on the Inner Melbourne Market, not the overall Melbourne market. Please do not assume prices will always increase and therefore stretch too far.
Yes treasury officials said there are risks right now, but there are risks in buying in any market. We feel you can best mitigate your homebuying risks by making well informed decisions, and that is true in any market. In our opinion a decision not to enter the market is not necessarily a well informed one if your longer term desired outcome is one of emotional and financial security through good home buying.
We feel the Inner Melbourne Market risks are not “bubble” related, they are demand and supply related. We cannot see any evidence that says the risk in buying a home now is more elevated than a year ago or anymore elevated than we perceive the risks might be in 2016. Please don’t think in the next six months that the market must fall or please don’t think the market cannot rise any further, because there are no facts to support either theory with certainty. 
The only certain thing in 2015 is, we are in a market.
Markets at times are flat and at times rise and fall.
Every property decision should be an informed individual one, with a sharp eye on mortgage payments/interest rates, as at some stage interest rates will go up and/or prices will fall; but balanced with the fact that getting in now, as in almost all cases over the last 30 years, has proven to be a good home buying decision (if the home was a good buy, meeting the individual’s shorter and longer term desired outcomes – with good PPP’s).
Summary: There are risks in individuals buying homes in any Inner Melbourne market (interest rate/employment/health changes) – the risks in 2015 do not appear to be elevated as implied by some Treasury officials. Homebuying risks are not mitigated by inaction, they are mitigated by making informed action decisions. In our opinion, unless there is a change in migration, Asian money flow and/or population policies, the real elevated risk maybe in not at least considering getting into the current Inner Melbourne market (with the right PPP’s and FFF’s of course).
Mal writes weekly auction reports, advice and in-depth market analysis on <a href="https://www.jamesbuyeradvocates.com.au/" target="_blank">James' website</a>.
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Buyer's agent Mal James on house price bubble risks 

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A number of young (and the not so young) homebuyers will have stopped looking for their dream home in the last few weeks.
This could be a bad situation (for them).
In fact it could well have been a completely counterproductive action if at any stage, in the future, they want to own a family home.
I bought my first home in 1985. Since then I have bought over a 1000 homes and never have I once purchased a home by not giving it my all.
Waiting never works
Never have I seen a friend or a client be in a better position by waiting out of the market for any length of time. Please don’t confuse this statement with passing on buying the wrong home and then continuing to look for the right one.
There are good and bad homes for each and every one of us. Don’t rush (there is no rush, even now). However you won’t find the good homes by not looking.
A number of younger buyers will have been turned off by media talk, Facebook interactions and discussions at work or home.
There is a lot of talk that we are in a bubble and by implication the bubble will burst, home prices will drop dramatically and bargains will miraculously appear.
We at James do not see that – not over the longer term anyway, not unless the population changes dramatically.
To stop the home search, to give up, to lose focus is WRONG, an untruth , a false perception IF your longer term happiness is tied to being in a family situation where you, or you and your partner control your destiny – eg you live in your own home.
Markets will continue to rise in the longer term
No easing of the market will assist you to any noticeable degree.
We did see the effects of the worst financial markets correction since the Great Depression in 2008, the market has bounced back and now much farther ahead than it was in 2007, 2008 or 2009. If you are viewing a home over a “lifetime” investment horizon, there will be bumps, but it will be a strong long term proposition.
Over time the market will/must continue to rise whilst there is population growth.
It’s simple demand and supply. Infrastructure Australia released their report two weeks ago and in it they have projected a 45% increase in population in Brisbane, Sydney, Melbourne and Perth over the next 15 years.  If that isn’t reassurance of continuing property demand, I don’t know what is. 
The government cannot and will not “save” you, the young homebuyers. 
The only thing that will “save” you, the young homebuyer, is you (and if you are lucky – good parents).
So, Mr. Hockey might have been clumsy in his words, but his message had some truth.
Perhaps I am being generous, but one of the more helpful statements this last week seemed to be the most controversial.
If you want to buy a good home, get a job that pays. This, in my opinion, was one of the few accurate and helpful comments of this last week – if buying a good home is your main priority.
BUT please, there is more to this than getting a good job. A number of young doctors feel they can’t buy their first home and they have what society deems is a good job.
As a young home buyer, please don’t get caught up in the minutiae or the politics.
Mr Hockey’s statement is a helpful pointer if you take it as meaning:
<ol>
<li>Take action yourself</li>
<li>Get the resources you need to get a home</li>
</ol>
You as young home buyers need to act and take it upon yourselves to control your own destiny.
Theories do not put a roof over your head, practical solutions do
House affordability is a theoretical problem.
Effective house buying is a practical solution.
Your choice as a young homebuyer is to be caught up in the problems – good dinner party chatter or caught up in the solutions, which will put a roof over your family’s head and more importantly build long term security for your family.
First the problems and then we put the VIOLIN away and discuss solutions.
Negative Gearers
As a young home buyer you face negative gearers (AND super funds AND other investment vehicles as well).
If you are looking at an $800,000 home and you are competing against a negative gearer, then a negative gearer can borrow all the money they need and can pay well over $2,000,000 for that same $800,000 home and it will still COST LESS to service than what it would for you pay for your mortgage, even assuming you had a 20% deposit.
<a href="https://marketnews.com.au/2015/06/young-homebuyers-issues-solutions/slide1yhb/" rel="attachment wp-att-50829"><img class="aligncenter size-large wp-image-50829" src="https://marketnews.com.au/wp-content/uploads/Slide1YHB-597x422.jpg" alt="Slide1YHB" width="597" height="422"></a>
The argument that negative gearing and super funds increase rentals is true, but its also BALONEY for you because with SMART BABY BOOMER INVESTORS it increases rentals at the cost of young home buyers buying a home.
So lets get rid of negative gearing, super funds OK. 
Maybe, but please not in a hurry, without thinking it through.
We buy a number of homes for parents who have been reading our blogs for the last decade. If the government or the opposition got rid of negative gearing, then in many cases, all they would be doing, is making it easier for overseas buyers to purchase the stock that you are hoping will be freed up for younger people.
I have teenage children and I need the firepower negative gearing gives me to maintain and buy homes against overseas buyers. I represent many parents and they need the firepower negative gearing gives them to maintain and buy homes against overseas investors.
So do you really think the government is going to alienate the baby boomers. In theory yes, but in practice, I’m not so sure. They may water down negative gearing. However, as you can see from the above maths watering down will have limited effect, as the gap is so great.
Many parents need negative gearing or super funds to compete against Chinese buyers and other overseas buyers and are doing so right now. We know as we are buying for parents.
If the government removed negative gearing, super funds they could suffer a tremendous backlash from many people (with resources) because they would take away a significant tool in competing on the international stage for buying Inner Melbourne Homes for their children.
Possible Solution Number One is to get your parents involved NOW.
If we were talking to Grade 6’s about home buying, the main message we would be telling them is get Mum and Dad out there now looking for a good home for you to rent off them when you’re 30. Of course I would be adding in make sure Mum and Dad know the difference between a good and a bad family home to buy for you.
If you cant beat them, join them. Maybe DON’T hate negative gearing, USE IT.
PROPERTY ORPHANS (no helpful parents) STILL want and need negative gearing, otherwise you will get beaten up by OTHER BUYERS.
Here are some clues (but please talk to us about what to buy, most apartments ARE NOT the things to negative gear).
Possible Solution Number Two: Buy a GOOD home NOW and negative gear with a tenant, then move in when you can afford it.
Possible Solution Number Three: Bit more adventurous – buy a GOOD home and get a friend to buy a GOOD home and use negative gearing, possibly with a solicitor and a formal/informal agreement to live in each other’s homes. Your main purpose is not to avoid tax; your main purpose is to provide shelter, to afford a home. The lessening of your tax allows you to compete against other local and overseas buyers. I would still get some legal advice on this type of set up, just in case.
BUT please this is not the whole solution in itself. This is part thereof, of you taking charge and getting negative gearing to help you, not hurt you.
Overseas Buyers
If not Chinese buyers, then Indian buyers, Brazilian buyers, and Indonesian buyers and so on will be competing on the homes you want to buy.
Overseas buying is unlikely to stop in a hurry as all political parties want population growth and they want it from rich overseas people.
Whether that is right or wrong is not for us to say – but Overseas bidding particularly from China dominates the Inner Melbourne Market – even where Chinese people are not bidding.
Overseas buyers have more money to spend on an $800,000 home than you, particularly while the A$ is as it is.
Lets say in 2010 you as a young person decided to save for a deposit on a then $700,000 home. You were looking to save $140,000 deposit. During this time the main issue IS NOT that your $700,000 has gone to $800,000 or $900,000 but that the Australian dollar has dropped and you are in an international market.
The couple in Beijing who were also saving in 2010, but were saving in US dollars have now effectively $210,000 AUS as a deposit and can fund a $1,000,000 purchase simply because of the exchange rate changes. A 50% drop in the AUS $ vs. US$ in the last 5 years.
So for that $700,000 home now worth $800,000 the overseas buyers could bid to $1,000,000 with the same savings since 2010 as you.
<a href="https://marketnews.com.au/2015/06/young-homebuyers-issues-solutions/slide2yhb/" rel="attachment wp-att-50828"><img class="aligncenter size-large wp-image-50828" src="https://marketnews.com.au/wp-content/uploads/Slide2YHB-597x422.jpg" alt="Slide2YHB" width="597" height="422"></a>
That’s only one part of the equation, there are many Chinese and other international families who don’t need to borrow – they are $800,000 to $8,000,000 cash buyers. As we said recently there are over 2,000,000 millionaire Chinese families looking for homes.
Let’s stop Overseas Buyers from taking our kids homes is the under the breath comment at many dinner parties.
OK how? The FIRB Act (designed to limit overseas investment) is as effective as Airline security – meaning if people want to do it, then they will do it – if they have been allowed to get to the threshold stage.
And besides that, will stopping overseas buyers actually help or hurt you in your quest for a good home in Inner Melbourne close to transport, shops, work, friends and schools?
Think about it, overseas buying has positives.
Chinese buying saved Melbourne property in 2009 from experiencing what almost every other country experienced – a significant and sustained property downturn.
Do you really want to stop Chinese buyers? Do you want a 20 year flattish property market like Japan – which has zero population growth and zero immigration?
And its not just the money – Chinese families have a lot to offer us through their older and more modern cultures.
Maybe we want to be like Japan and shut our borders or Canada who has partially shut them to Chinese buyers.
As a community we will all have to make that decision through our politicians.
I’m not so sure any total lockdown is the way to go. Perhaps a focus into regional areas may be a better alternative – maybe not – it needs discussion and then action, rather than knee jerk reactions.
What is true is overseas bidding particularly from China dominates the Inner Melbourne Market – even where Chinese people are not bidding.
However we have had Chinese buying for 40 years, just never at this level of intensity.
But can you and your children wait? They may have gone from 6 to 16, or 16 to 26, or 26 to 36 while discussions are happening and your children need a home sooner than that.
Real Estate Agents and Buyer Advocates
Agents and advocates are ruining it for young people by pushing the prices up.
Good selling agents do push prices up and bad buyer advocates can hurt young homebuyers with their incompetence. But the real truth is us agents/advocates are not that good – we can’t control markets.
It’s demand and supply that controls markets.
Demand is from population, with wealthy immigration being the main driver; and supply is very restricted on most Inner Melbourne Homes with good position and good land.
So while agents are often their own worst enemy (with regards to their quoting and some tactics), they are not the reason why young homebuyers can’t buy a home to live in.
If we stopped everything
Ok, so lets say in your perfect world we’ve got rid of the Chinese buyers, got rid of the Negative gearers, banned Super Funds from buying homes, stopped immigration and yada yada yada.
Where would that leave you – does that mean you can automatically buy a home much more easily?
Not necessarily.
Wounded Underbidders
Have you been to auctions in the Inner North for instance – you know the single-fronters in need of a reno – the ones you can almost afford?
Are you just competing against negative gearers, super funders and families from Asia?
Well no – you are also competing against WOUNDED UNDERBIDDERS – that is other buyers who have bid before. They have come from Inner Melbourne organic population increases via Inner Melbourne births and Australian intra-migration from Outer Melbourne and Regional wealthier homebuyers wanting to be closer to schools and infrastructure that works.
NOW they are better resourced than you. By better resourced we mean they:
<ol>
<li>Have a clearer focus</li>
<li>Have a buyer advocate or other property professional</li>
<li>Have done greater research and so on – eg they may have a more competitive interest rate – every dollar counts!</li>
</ol>
CONCLUSION TO ISSUES for YOUNG HOMEBUYERS
If the government or the army or the media or …….. were somehow able to:
<ul>
<li>Stop the overseas buyers coming</li>
<li>Stop negative gearing and super funds and ….</li>
<li>Stop other locals competing against you</li>
</ul>
and all the while:
<ul>
<li>Kept the economy buoyant</li>
<li>So you can keep a job and</li>
<li>Kept the developers actually building new homes in a negative economic environment.</li>
</ul>
Where would you be?
Do you really want to buy you first home in Whoop Whoop West and live in a country with a 20 year property market like Japan – which gave you almost no hope of a few good property moves that saw you end up in Hawthorn – near schools in a nice home for not much else than three good decisions?
Me personally – I want a gently rising market for my children 
And I want them to learn how to use the rising Melbourne market to their advantage.
Don’t give up – don’t whine about negative gearing and Chinese buyers, learn to deal with them and get into the property mix.
But please get into the property mix sooner rather than later
Because once you are in, then if you make good decisions and buy well, the market will work for you.
Example: We have bought for families who have moved from $480,000 in Albert Park in 2000 to $880,000 in Sandy in 2005 to $2,000,000 in Bayside in 2015 all with manageable changeover costs. Look at the number $480,000 – isn’t that what you have now?
How do you do that, how do you use this market to your advantage?
The four solution keys
<ol>
<li>Good plan</li>
<li>Good professional assistance </li>
<li>Good processes</li>
<li>Good decisions</li>
</ol>
Its all about NOW plus the LONGER TERM, not just the NOW.
Now for young people and by that we mean anybody under say 45, this article may appear lacking in empathy. 
All I can say is I have teenage children and I totally, totally share the concerns re home affordability, BUT………… I share my/our credentials to be able to say what we are saying.
My family has bought two of the needed three homes for our children and we are still paying off those mortgages, just as many other families are. We have used negative gearing. We needed it. Our children are 20,16 and 14. I/we have significant fears that if we had not been working towards this goal our children would have had significant housing problems that would impact negatively on their lives (and that still may happen).
Our family and James Buyer Advocates has been substantial supporters since 2006 of Hanover’s for the Homeless Private Rental Brokerage programme. The work of Hanover has allowed us to see first hand the hundreds and hundreds of families who sleep rough every night because they cannot afford decent housing.
I am a professional buyer advocate, have bought over a 1000 homes and see the current housing affordability situation affecting not only young first homebuyers, but many other people as well. The only generation that has done well from all this is the baby boomers (my generation). In my humble opinion, we as a generation, need to do a hellava lot more in giving back in a meaningful way to help those that follow us; rather than leave some sort of scorched landscape as we depart planet Earth (sorry about the soapbox).
Mal writes weekly auction reports, advice and in-depth market analysis on <a href="https://www.jamesbuyeradvocates.com.au/" target="_blank">James' website</a>.
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Attitude and help gets young people into the market: Mal James

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At 6.00 pm on Saturday 11 October , the James Clearance Rate for Melbourne's $1 million plus property was 66% on the 32 auctions we covered.
Our overall summary of Melbourne's million dollar-plus auctions:
<ul>
<li>Ducks (auctions with no bidders): 18%</li>
<li>Lone Rangers (auctions with one bidder): 18%</li>
<li>Norms (auctions with two or three bidders): 36%</li>
<li>Volcanoes (four or more bidders at auction): 28%</li>
</ul>
Biggest auctions:
<ul>
<li>Camberwell, 73 Bowen Street (Paul Richards, Bekdon Richards), under hammer, $3,600,000, 6 bidders. <img src="/images/2014/10/16/Bowen-597x399.jpg" alt=""> Auction of the day: a huge crowd of more than 100 people at the auction of 73 Bowen Street. 
</li>
<li>Hawthorn, 74 Robinson Road (Scott Patterson, Kay &amp; Burton), under hammer, $2,820,000, 4 bidders, pictured below. <img src="/images/2014/10/16/hawthorn.jpg" alt=""> 
</li>
<li>Albert Park, 382 Montague Street (Kaine Lanyon, Marshall White), under hammer, $2,750,000, 3 bidders, pictured below. <img src="/images/2014/10/16/albertpark.jpg" alt=""> 382 Montague Street auction shown in main picture.
</li>
</ul>
Bidder buzz:
<ul>
<li>Malvern East, 28 Darling Road (Daniel Wheeler, Marshall White), under hammer, $1,391,000, 6 bidders</li>
<li>Glen Iris, 19 Ashburton Road (Andrew Gibbons, Marshall White), under hammer, $1,910,000, 5 bidders</li>
<li>Camberwell, 20 Killarra Avenue (Damien Davis, Jellis Craig), under hammer, $1,660,000, 5 bidders</li>
</ul>
Biggest Pass Ins:
<ul>
<li>East Melbourne, 81 Wellington Parade, passed in, $4,000,000, no bidders</li>
<li>Balwyn North, 48 Tuxen Street, passed in, $3,750,000, no bidders</li>
<li>Balwyn, 1 Monash Avenue, passed in, $2,775,000, 2 bidders</li>
</ul>
 This article continues on the next page. To read Mal James' market summary, click below. 
<hr class="system-pagebreak">
 
The post Grand Final market summary trifecta
<ol>
<li>
DEMAND It feels like there should be strong interest prior to the Melbourne Cup for good homes. We have a number of auctions we are bidding on in the next fortnight (but still some vacancies). Open for Inspections for good homes have been crowded and prior to the Grand Final, we have been consistently recording over 2.2 bidders per auction.</li>
<li>
VENDOR PRICING Many agents on the selling side are moaning about some vendors opinions on price. We have no issue with that – it's their home – it's a free country – but they are not selling. While we have bought four in the last week: <ul>
<li>A Toorak off-market apartment (Marcus Chiminello)</li>
<li>A Malvern East off-market home (John Manton)</li>
<li>A Brighton family home at auction (Regina Schmidt)</li>
<li>A South Melbourne apartment at auction (Gary Omrod)</li>
</ul>
We have also walked away from several negotiations where we have offered good money and got a reply we couldn't go near. I went through two on Saturday and walked straight out when told the price. I admire courage but a few sellers right now are into "hero" territory on asking price. <img src="/images/2014/10/16/Oct25-Super-Saturday-597x448.jpg" alt=""> Next Week is a Super Saturday and the week after, 25 October, is always expected to be a big one, but is now actually a huge one – as my feeble graph above attempts to show. 
</li>
<li>
SUPPLY Let's be happy as we are at the highest levels of good quality stock across all price levels, in almost all market segments since May 2010. And the quality spread is very good – I've been to a number of absolutely brilliantly built/renovated homes. Here are three I have rated but are currently not acting for a buying client on:
<ul>
<li>11 Malin St Kew (Greg Toogood). James Rating: 783/1000</li>
<li>3 Myamyn Avenue Armadale (Peter Bennison). James Rating: 801/1000</li>
<li>A $10m+ old classic in East Melbourne (Jeremy Fox). James Rating 800/1000</li>
</ul>
</li>
</ol>
It's a little tighter by the Bay for the classics but there is plenty out there. So if you can't find something to tickle your fancy now, then you may have to revisit your fancy or your tickle – there is a lot of good property for sale right now.
 Mal writes weekly auction reports, advice and in-depth market analysis on his <a href="https://www.jamesbuyeradvocates.com.au/" target="_blank">website</a>.
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Melbourne's upmarket auction update: Plenty of good stock on offer

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We have been advising our clients for some time that the banks have become harder to deal with, than this time last year. Since those comments we have introduced internal measures to help our buying clients AND the banks have put investor rates up. Ok, the banks are being prudent, aren’t they?
Yes, but hey, there is a bigger picture here that the banks and the government are not seeing or maybe are choosing to ignore.
Are banks being fair to locals?
Question:  Are our local banks involved in some form of inadvertent, bizarre reverse prejudice by pulling interest rate and other restrictive lending levers for locals.
As any local buyer will acknowledge, it is already very difficult to compete against the huge Asian inflow of money. Asian buyers have more financial options eg currency swapping, than the local Australian buyers do.
Are we seeing a repeat of the 1960s where the banks wanted to encourage new building, so they made it easy for locals to borrow to build new in Doncaster, while making it more difficult for locals to borrow and buy second hand in Albert Park? The Greek and Italian migrants who at the time had more money raising abilities than the locals, took full advantage of this when walking off the boat and bought en masse in Albert Park, Port Melbourne and Middle Park with minimal competition.
The Asian buying influx is a lot, lot bigger now than the Greek and Italian influx of those times.
Since the FIRB changes of 2009 which opened and never shut the floodgates to overseas investment, large amounts of land and huge numbers of established homes in Inner Melbourne have been and are continuing to be bought by overseas investors. This seems to be what the Australian governments of both political persuasions want – ok, that is the government’s call – that’s not the point of this article – that’s for another time.
Our policy at James is clear – we act for local and overseas clients without internal policy bias.
Our point is that the locals (your children and my children) need to be on as level a playing field as possible when it comes to being able to compete against buyers from Asia.
Otherwise the banks/governments maybe subjecting some of our clients, locals, your/my children etc to a form of bias which we find totally unacceptable and outside our values of Australian fair play.
The banks, for no doubt very good reasons in their mind, are making it harder for locals to buy – but they may not slow the surge, as they intend. All they may do, is make it a lot easier for overseas buyers to buy near schools, buy in good streets, buy the established homes; as fewer local buyers have the ability to compete against the more sophisticated money from China and other Asian countries.
We think this is seriously unfair on local Australians if it plays out as it looks like it may.
Local banks need to be helping local buyers, not making it harder – guys, it’s already bloody hard enough for local buyers.
When are people of influence going to stand up for our children and for local buyers – who want to live locally.
If the government and banks want the market to ease, go to the source of the creation – huge and unabated overseas demand.
Banking leaders please look at what you may be inadvertently doing if you carry on your latest policy directions.
This current market is not being driven by local interest rates – this current market is being driven by overseas demand and if you continue to weaken the local competition by restricting their ability to borrow (which no doubt is based on good intentions); all you may be doing is making it even easier for overseas buyers to buy, while making it harder for some of our clients, locals and our/your children to buy.
Is that fair? No, it is not fair.
Mal writes weekly auction reports, advice and in-depth market analysis on <a href="https://www.jamesbuyeradvocates.com.au/" target="_blank">James' website</a>.
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Mal James

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