Mal James

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GUEST OBSERVER 
Ferocious bidding on the right homes – despite this being the largest auction start to a year in Melbourne auction history – the market lapped it up, spat out a few and said ”feed me, feed me, give me more.”
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At 6.00 pm the James Clearance Rate on Inner Melbourne Homes was close enough to 90% – yep 90% and that was on a Super Saturday (a big test).
James Bidderman was 2.6 bidders per auction, which means that whilst around 170 bought –  an incredible 270 didn’t  – and those 270 wounded underbidders will be back next week to fight it out, against a new wave of buyers; which in turn means the market will be going up, not down, ceteris paribus (all things being equal) over the next little while.
Absolutely no surprises – the market is strong and rising.
What else would you expect the Melbourne auction market to be doing?
No really, what else would you expect of the Melbourne auction market in the current environment.
Hands up if you are expecting the market to fall in the near future?
Can we ask why?
Not because we know for sure it won’t, we just want to know why you think the market will fall anytime soon?
Why will the market bake a different cake, whilst the market ingredients remain the same?
Demand=buyers=people=population is going up and not likely to stop, until change.
Supply=homes=land is going down and not likely to change.
This is a Demand, Supply and Price Interaction outlined by economists a few centuries ago (stood the test of time), tweaked as it applies to Inner Melbourne Home Market today.
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Here are the major political parties increasing Demand/Buyers/Population policies. Google was the search function.
Liberal Party: We could not find a population policy among their key policies. 
Labour Party: We could not find a population policy among their top 100.  At least they were attempting to address the housing issue.
Greens: We found a population policy – well, it’s a commentary. But let’s be fair – at least they recognise that population is an issue. 
One Nation: They do not appear to have an easy to find population policy – they do have a migration policy that states a zero net migration. Dick Smith supports this part – No, not the boat people and Muslim commentary – the population management policy of zero net migration and infrastructure. 
None of the above is designed to be a criticism of politicians, we believe most are sincere and trying and that is not our role at James Buyer Advocates, as we see it.
Anyway back to the Demand=Buyers=Population side of the Home Market.
We hear you – what about interest rates and income and debt?
Yes, they affect (mainly at the lower levels), but the real driver is population demand, mainly from overseas.
Our belief, at the higher level, is the Inner Melbourne market has moved through the phase of infinite demand and supply interactions to a more finite one.
Our belief, at the higher level, is the Inner Melbourne market is slowly moving away from income, debt and interest rates; to an asset wealth exchange. In our opinion, assets not income are now beginning to steer the Inner Melbourne High End market.
Meaning the Inner Melbourne home-with-land market is moving to finite asset to asset transactions within any given time period and an increasing number of the interactions will only involve wealthy overseas investors, local intergenerational wealth and the occasional new-to-the-scene successful entrepreneur/very high salary earner – rather than banks, interest rates and anybody can buy a home.
Melbourne through the internationalism of its market, through Australia’s population and immigration policies (particularly the 2009 FIRB change) is in the process of becoming like Mumbai, New York, Inner London – where homes are exchanged on a different basis and with different players to mum and dad, rolling up to a bank, out to an auction and sign a contract, after they had a idea they wanted a nice house in Hawthorn last week.
Those days are well and truly gone for many and getting that way for others. That is not to say that another GFC would not have a significant effect on the Inner Melbourne market, of course it would, as debt is still involved. However, in our opinion, it would need to be as serious as that, for there to be a significant drop in prices.
Economic cataclysms are not that common and the buyers and sellers that recover best are usually the bricks’n’mortar asset rich anyway.
Our point – the logic of an Inner Melbourne homebuyer waiting for a meaningful drop in prices is, well, seemingly illogical to us.
Why will prices drop when the government and the opposition have no obvious focus on demand=buyers=population policies except full steam ahead – meaning more and more population (read more and more buyers, read more and more demand)? That is the demand side.
On the supply side it’s also just as simple.
Land and Infrastructure – they are not making it any more.
There will be no long lasting significant increase in supply in Inner Melbourne (ever again).
In fact we are losing more and more land to make more and more apartments.
As well, many buyers (local and overseas) are buying and holding and not selling – further reducing supply.
Many of these apartments are being bought by buyers on no stamp duty – so no contributions to infrastructure in the form of new taxes.
And whilst it was a bit of a joke, they are not making anymore infrastructure – it’s actually unfortunately sort of true (governments are not focussing on keeping pace anyway – they are more concerned about welfare and refugees, than new railways and regional living and immigration control).
We are not looking to suggest there should be specific changes on anything, that is for our leaders, whom we support.
All we are trying to do is outline the real issues – the real situations – so as our buying clients can make informed decisions going forward.
Noticed the increased traffic lately?  
That is demand=buyers=population increase and supply=land &amp; infrastructure decrease.
So back to the question we ask our clients/buyers – why do you think prices on good quality homes in Inner Melbourne will fall any time soon – unless there is a major change in …….. something?
Is waiting a good strategy?
Is buy-now a better strategy (if it’s the right home long term)?
Unless you see a major change in population policies, such as immigration and/or a big push to regional infrastructure or ….. something else we can’t see now, then, in our opinion at James, good homes with land will continue to rise and rise and rise in price, in the longer term future (yes of course with hiccups along the way)…….. and interest rates……Mmmm – not sure what affect they might have………. some yes……….but………. that may be history, the game may have changed?
Macro Change – will it come?
Our leaders current assessment is business wealth, turnover, profits, trade and so on is of greater community importance than owning your own home, village atmosphere, culture and so on.
They may be right, maybe its a pipe dream – personally we feel sad about that.
There is talk around the Inner Melbourne home buying market edges like monetary policy tweaking, but there is silence, a vacuum of policy about immigration and population (the real drivers) – and many buyers are just hoping things will be different, so they are not speaking up – population increase is the elephant in the room.
Hope is great, but it is action that changes things.
Are there any signs of action and change coming on a macro level?
If the Melbourne market was Canberra and buyers were kangaroos, there would be some calls for a cull – eg their would be noise in an attempt to reduce the problem – if there was going to be widespread action and change.
If the Melbourne market was the environment, many would be up in arms protesting about overgrazing and looking for strategies for change – there would be noise if there was going to be widespread action and change.
There is no noise on population issues – there will be no change in demand without you hearing the noise.
The macro noise is not there.
So Micro Change – yes you – you still have options.
1) Lie in the foetal position and give up on buying a good home.
2) Keep thinking the same ingredients will bake that different cake for you – knowing that almost every quality home has between 3 and 7 bidders up against you – and that number is increasing and your opposition is becoming better resourced (they are being forced to).
3) Or act now – do something about it – engage with a different idea in a different way – you need to make it happen. You may need to understand there is no magical wand coming from above. Maybe get some professional assistance – just a thought.
James Buyer Advocates – 5 from 5 this February month so far (for normal people/buyers) – but we were very, very picky on which properties we went after.
Suggestion to get you rolling on the MICRO.
Consider making an immediate mindset change in dealing with the population and home buying issue.
Consider moving away from focussing on saving money in the deal and buying cheap to focussing on doing what you need to do ($ prudently of course) to secure a good long term home (for you), that will last you 10-15 years and longer.
Your solutions may well be micro (you) – as macro ones simply ain’t happening anytime soon.
MAL JAMES is principal of<a href="https://www.jamesbuyeradvocates.com.au/" target="_blank" title="James Buyer Advocates" rel="nofollow"> James Buyer Advocates</a>, which advocates on behalf of buyers of property over $1 million. Mal writes auction reports, advice and in-depth market analysis on James' website.
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Let’s face a home truth – the elephant in the room – population: Mal James

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Question: Which suburb in Melbourne is having the greatest influence on land values across all of Melbourne?
Is it Toorak, Brighton, Hawthorn or is it Albert Park?
These are very influential suburbs and more expensive than the suburb we think is Melbourne’s most influential land value suburb. But it is not any of these.
No, Melbourne’s most influential land suburb is (drum roll please) Balwyn; and it has been since 2008 and possibly since the late 1990s. What happens in Balwyn has been driving Melbourne land prices.
A-grade land in Balwyn at Easter 2015 is now firmly at $3000 per square metre. This is evidenced by multiple sales, including the auction we were at over the long weekend at 58 Metung Avenue, Balwyn.
Quick little auction report on 58 Metung:
The block is a marginally undersized block, in a ‘name’ street, in the Balwyn High school zone; but other than that, it is most unremarkable. West-facing with an average frontage and a “no value” bulldozer home on it. There were 80 people who felt compelled to rock up to participate in or watch this outcome. After a solid opening start at $1.8 million from ourselves, we saw only four more bids from the three bidders. It was all over in a flash at $1,950,000 under the hammer. At 650 square metres in size, our maths says that it sold for exactly $3,000 per square metre.
Supporting evidence of this is 5 Winmalee, Balwyn (Richard Winneke) which sold the week before at $3001 per square metre for a bulldozer 781 square metre home.
Both these addresses are almost North-Balwyn, not Canterbury-Balwyn.
In the last seven years, Balwyn has been both the saviour and the devil for many Melburnian home buyers.
Question: Why is Balwyn all powerful in terms of land value influences?
Answer: Overseas buyers value homes higher than local buyers and this has put pressure on overall prices. Overseas buyers have the wealth in numbers to back their valuations.
Yes, but why Balwyn?
<ol>
<li>Schools</li>
<li>History – it’s close to earlier established Chinese communities in Box Hill and Doncaster</li>
<li>Chinese people like new-build homes and Balwyn has fewer council restrictions to bulldoze than, say, Hawthorn</li>
</ol>
Balwyn (and Kew) saved Melbourne property from the GFC in 2008.
Balwyn and Kew were the leaders in GFC times, when the FIRB law changes opened the floodgates on the previously steady interest from Overseas Buyers. This massive increase in interest turned the struggling Melbourne GFC housing market into a hotbed of excitement. Read Our 2009 James Market News Archives.
Now in 2015, Balwyn is seen as a negative by local Australian buyers. The once welcome bidding from overseas, is still welcome by downsizing sellers; but it’s certainly no longer welcome by local buyers, as many have been forced out of the market.
Balwyn is affecting markets far wider than Balwyn itself.
Balwyn is now consistently more expensive than most of Bayside. Yep that’s right, Balwyn is now more expensive than a lot of Hampton, almost all of Sandringham and its line ball with a fair part of Brighton and Elwood.
Remember when Balwyn North and Beaumaris were comparable in dollar terms? There is now a vast chasm.
Below is part of our new updated land value data which is now current (Easter 2015).
<a href="https://marketnews.com.au/2015/03/wow-50-of-the-auctions-we-covered-today-were-volcanoes/easter-land-bayside/" rel="attachment wp-att-49307"><img class="aligncenter size-large wp-image-49307" src="https://marketnews.com.au/wp-content/uploads/Easter-Land-Bayside-597x448.jpg" alt="Easter Land Bayside" width="597" height="448"></a>
<a href="https://marketnews.com.au/2015/03/wow-50-of-the-auctions-we-covered-today-were-volcanoes/easter-land-inner-east/" rel="attachment wp-att-49306"><img class="aligncenter size-large wp-image-49306" src="https://marketnews.com.au/wp-content/uploads/Easter-Land-Inner-East-597x448.jpg" alt="Easter Land Inner East" width="597" height="448"></a>
Source: James Buyer Advocates
About James Land Values Above:
<ul>
<li>Please note these values represent an overview. They are guides.</li>
<li>We have done a fair bit of rounding, so as to simplify the different and changing values in Melbourne land.</li>
<li>Values change dramatically with:</li>
</ul>
+ Views + “Name streets” + Wide frontages + Auction iinterest
- Main road - Irregular block - Weaker precincts - High vendors
<ul>
<li>There are some auction results that we consider are outliers, in that they appear to us to be under or over the market</li>
<li>Some houses, eg ones that cannot be bulldozed are, in 2015, actually discounting the land value; such is the insatiable appetite by overseas buyers for land you can build on.</li>
<li>These values, vary from street to street and in this market can change in a month or so eg before Christmas 2014 and after New Year 2015.  The above are guides only to show comparisons and should not be relied on in specific instances without further professional due diligence.</li>
</ul>
Land Price Acceleration: Volcano Auction Prices (4+ Bidders) have risen 10% on bigger land – November 2014 to February 2015!
That’s right 10% or $200,000 on a $2 million block of land. Of course there are exceptions higher and lower.
This will have major flow on effects on new home prices in these areas in the months to come.
But really it’s no surprise to experienced and longer term market watchers. 
With a herd mentality and ‘panic’ comes opportunity
<a href="https://marketnews.com.au/2015/03/easter-2015-james-land-value-guides-for-inner-melbourne/5km/" rel="attachment wp-att-49345"><img class="aligncenter size-large wp-image-49345" src="https://marketnews.com.au/wp-content/uploads/5km-597x448.jpg" alt="5km" width="597" height="448"></a>
Opportunity One:
Really this is true. Hands up who can name one suburb in Melbourne where you can buy 600 square metres plus blocks within 5 kilometres of the CBD – with all the infrastructure you could want and a gentrifying attitude and it’s still around $2,000 per square metre? We’ve deliberately left it off the land maps above.
Yes the game has changed, but there are still opportunities.
<a href="https://marketnews.com.au/2015/03/wow-50-of-the-auctions-we-covered-today-were-volcanoes/opportunity-2/" rel="attachment wp-att-49322"><img class="aligncenter size-large wp-image-49322" src="https://marketnews.com.au/wp-content/uploads/Opportunity1-597x448.jpg" alt="Opportunity" width="597" height="448"></a>
Opportunity Two:
Bayside may have been undervalued for years and we have been buying for many clients for many years. But the genie is leaking out.
We recently bought Brickwood Street, Brighton (David Hart) for an investor client. It was a smart buy on their behalf. It is getting harder and will continue to do so for investors and home buyers alike, if the tsunami of overseas interest continues to hit Bayside over the next few years. See above graphic from our James Client Land Guides for comparable kilometre distances.
<a href="https://marketnews.com.au/2015/03/easter-2015-james-land-value-guides-for-inner-melbourne/kew-2/" rel="attachment wp-att-49347"><img class="aligncenter size-large wp-image-49347" src="https://marketnews.com.au/wp-content/uploads/kew1-597x448.jpg" alt="kew" width="597" height="448"></a>
Opportunity Three:
In Melbourne right now land values “drop per square metre” when certain types of homes are attached.
So yes, you can bid against overseas buyers on land only buys at auction time. But if you think laterally, you may find a better deal. We are recommending those opportunities to our clients.
In 15 years time a brand new home will look the same and probably be valued the same as a 90s home is now. Buildings can go up in value for the first few years, eg seven to ten years. After that they tend to fall in value.
 
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The suburb that is most influential on Melbourne's land values: Mal James

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Our overall Inner Melbourne market is being driven by overseas interest (of course not on every home) – we all know that. But what is of further interest is the flow on effect to the lower parts of the market.
The top of the market is driving the bottom of the market. This means as buyers continually miss at higher price points/main suburbs they begin to gravitate to “lower price points” and “the fringes of the wealthier suburbs” as their expectations change and their need to be satisfied intensifies.
This puts even greater pressure on the lower segments of the market and this is how overseas buyers are driving the market at all levels, even if they are not seen to be bidding at every auction.
Melbourne's Bayside feels like it’s a powder keg – the question appears not if, but when. Bayside has been to Inner East in terms of price, what Sydney is to Melbourne. Bayside is behind Inner East on prices, when a few decades ago they were on parity (of some sort). 
With the number of Asian people going through Bayside OFIs it feels like things must change over the next few years. The “undervalued” suburbs of Brighton and Hampton feel like they may start to see the numbers that Toorak, Balwyn and Kew have been attracting over the last decade.
 It is only my speculation and I do live in Brighton, so possibly I’m getting ahead of myself, but it just doesn’t feel like I am.
New Strategies to meet new markets
After the worst start to a year at James Buyer Advocates in terms of success, we had four from four positive auction outcomes for our buying clients at Richmond (Stuart Evans), Bentleigh (John Gorman), Brighton (Andrew Campbell/Chris Hassall) and St Kilda East (John Manton/Fiona Ansell-Jones).
These four 'volcano' auctions involved a complete revisit on strategy at our Negotiation Council last week.
Strategies that had worked this time last year to the tune of an 84% success went out the window and were replaced with new fresh ways to manage what, in early 2015, has become an incredibly difficult market for buyers
Mal writes weekly auction reports, advice and in-depth market analysis on <a href="https://www.jamesbuyeradvocates.com.au/" target="_blank">James' website</a>.
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In Melbourne, the top of the market is driving the bottom: Mal James

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Right now the wider market is being pushed out of all normal historical growth patterns for certain types of homes.
These homes are:
<ul>
<li>New homes, especially bigger homes on smaller blocks (Balwyn formula) and it’s not just Balwyn. Last week we wrote that 12 Kyarra (Stephen Wigley) was quoted at $2.6 million and located in a part of Hampton where sales in the $3 million range of this type were non-existent. We suggested that it would set new records past $3 million today. It did easily – selling for $3,305,000. 
</li>
<li>Land where you can bulldoze and build new homes. We got beaten today in Stocks Avenue, Ashburton (Steve Burke) with five bidders where the eventual winner was not a Chinese buyer, but a developer who will probably build to the “Balwyn” formula. It will probably be for the Chinese community and when it goes to market it too will probably bring Ashwood into the $3 million club unless somebody else already has. 
</li>
<li>And of course big land. </li>
</ul>
So what does this all mean, what can you do about it?
<ol>
<li>First up – don’t give up. In fact I’m not sure that sitting out for a year is all that smart either. If this is a structural change to the market (and it feels like it may be similar to early 2000’s and 2006 and 2009 and late 2012) then waiting out as you may have done during the GFC will do nothing. Sure you can wait till the pundits tell you it’s safe to buy – but none of them predicted a start of this magnitude in 2015 as they also did not in 2007 or 2010 or late 2012. 
</li>
<li>What is the market really doing? Has it gone crazy? No, not really. It is responding to fundamentals and the fundamentals are incredibly strong right now for larger landholdings with flexibility. That is why we have been strong on buying for clients for the last 24 months and are continuing to do so. Those fundamentals are turbo charged overseas demand completely out of whack with the dwindling supply of certain home types described above. So unless the wealth of overseas buyers drops (and it has increased for the last 40 years), or the government intervenes (showing no stomach to do so on any serious note at present) or Chinese buyers (in particular) reverse their preference to landbank (reducing supply even further) then the market is doing what it is doing based on sound demand and supply principles, not anything else. This may well continue for some time (with the odd hiccup).We wrote a number of times last year that each month was either a tread or a step in a rising staircase on price which reignited in October 2012 and hasn’t stopped since. But February 2015 is different – it has jumped off the staircase, gone up a whole floor in the lift (for the above types of properties) and we assume will now continue on its merry way. 
</li>
<li>Revisit your strategies. Two strong points we make – if you are no longer riding a wave of excitement but are instead drowning in a sea of disappointment then you need to change your strategy or your tactics. For instance, bulldozer homes with a good agent going cheaply aren’t going to happen too often. So do you really need to live in a new home and have a restricted lifestyle due to a massive mortgage or do you need a rethink? Please don’t go further out geographically for financial reasons as this doesn’t make sense. Have you considered period homes or what about different precincts or different suburbs?</li>
</ol>
If you buy ahead of the game, then you will be rewarded.
<ul>
<li>Example 1: Bayside land has not kept pace with Inner East land, in fact nothing like it in the last five years. But it will return to its natural predisposition given time as the market rediscovers its many positive attributes. 
</li>
<li>Example 2: What about Inner Melbourne smaller blocks, they haven’t been discovered by the Foreign Investors yet as the building and land size does not add up on the calculators. But eventually it will start to make sense as it did to Greeks and Italians in the 50’s, 60’s and so on. 
</li>
<li>Example 3: Just as overseas buyers moved from Doncaster to Balwyn to Kew to Toorak as wealth increased so they will find other areas as those opportunities dry up.</li>
</ul>
Mal writes weekly auction reports, advice and in-depth market analysis on <a href="https://www.jamesbuyeradvocates.com.au/" target="_blank">James' website</a>.
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Buying premium property ahead of the pack: Mal James

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At 6.00 pm on Saturday, on our first auction day of the year for Inner East and Bayside we have been to 13 auctions – all had bidders and all sold.
No emphasis on stats today as there were very few $1 million plus auctions , Inner Melbourne’s big auction games start next week.
I’ve really only had this week to get a “face to face street feel” on what’s happening in 2015. It appears to have started strongly and the vibe from the agents at the 20 homes which I inspected and rated was positive and “maaaate, the market continues to fire”. Heaps of people through opens.
Our company enquiry levels are up solidly on last year and we concur with what the selling agents are whispering under their breaths. We have already started with an auction win and a miss ($1 - $2 million) and the market hasn’t really got going in auctions yet. Off markets and other types of buying has also started for us.
Auction-wise, next week is different, a strong weekend with around 140 auctions over $1 million scheduled for Inner East and Bayside and the following week is a Super, Super Saturday with nearly 250. Hold onto your hats.
No we mean it – buyers should be holding onto their hats and only put their hand up if it makes sense. Every February we expect a strong start and this year is not unusual. After a six week Christmas hiatus there are a number of nervous nellies out there pushing hard on prices – it happens every year. It appears it will happen again this year.
So demand is coming from four types of buyers:
<ol>
<li>New local buyers (average price thoughts)</li>
<li>New overseas buyers (higher than average price thoughts)</li>
<li>An array of nervous nellies (higher than average price thoughts)</li>
<li>Last year’s wounded underbidders (higher than average price thoughts)</li>
</ol>
All these buyers are pushing through the February OFI doors like a Boxing Day David Jones Doorbuster Sale.
Every year around this time, we urge caution, 2015 will be the same. If it’s good, go for it; but once the bidding get’s past very strong, consider your competitors, consider your alternatives, consider stopping and trying on another home, another day.
Case in point (1): Last weekend on the one we missed at 14 Parliament Street, Brighton (Julian Augustini) – agent quoting around $950,000 to $1,050,000. We opened at $1,100,000 and then a guy bid $1,150,000 and then bid against himself up another $50,000 to $1,200,000. We competed against him and another bidder, until we were beaten at $1,325,000. Please, this was a good home for what it was and congratulations to the buyer – bought a good property, but the agents will tell you they couldn’t get it sold late last year around the opening bid (nearly $200,000 south of today’s price).
Case in point (2): We could have bought 8 Johnson Street, Hawthorn (James Tostevin) quietly last year circa $1,600,000. We didn’t. Today four bidders competed to just over $1,800,000.
Case in point (3): We couldn’t buy a property pre-Christmas off market, but bought it this year before auction – Glen Iris (Cameron Edgoose).
So has the market started with a bang or is this the usual February ”Berocca” effect where you wake up desperate, take a Berocca and go out there and take the world on?
Big numbers through opens in February is about as Melburnian as big numbers through the gates at the first round of the footy season.
While the market mood appears just as strong as last year, maybe even more so, any longer term market shift won’t be evident until Super Saturday 28 March and confirmed mid May.
Mal writes weekly auction reports, advice and in-depth market analysis on <a href="https://www.jamesbuyeradvocates.com.au/" target="_blank">James' website</a>.
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Caution - nervous bidders are pushing hard on auction prices: Mal James

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What are your buying choices in the run up to Christmas? It might seem there is no choice other than to go to auction and be slaughtered. This is not the case.
Last Saturday we did not buy one home, no, not one home at auction. I think it’s our first blank canvas for the year, although we went close on 25 October. Would have been happy to buy a few, as some of the homes on offer were first rate. However, for some we didn’t have enough to start and for others at some point you have to recommend to your clients that PRICE is part of the good buying PPP equation (price, property and position). Price and value (different concepts) are about your needs (true), but they are also about alternatives. And right now that is very relevant.
In the run to Christmas 2014, buyers need to be smart about the opportunities presented to them. Of course if it’s a great home, you have no alternatives and you really, really want it; then you have to pay the piper and compete at auction. But smart buyers are looking for (and finding) alternatives in this current auction dominating market.
Underquoting/Step Quoting – back in the news
Some salient points:
<ol>
<li>You have a Consumer Affairs regulator that consistently says there is no problem. 
</li>
<li>You have an election happening and what do politicians do when elections are happening? 
</li>
<li>You have a real estate industry that generally believes in getting as many buyers as it can to a home rather than trying to communicate. 
</li>
<li>You have a market that is flying, meaning that many times it is not underquoting, but the market that is dictating the gap between quote and result. 
</li>
<li>You have buyers that don’t get professional help when spending the amount of money they do and they really should, especially if the same ‘bad’ things keep happening to them. 
</li>
<li>Quoting is not just about buyers, it is also about the rights of sellers. In strong markets, like we are in now, it would be grossly unfair to expect a seller to have a tight reserve range at the start of an auction campaign. Legislation requiring this to happen would, in our mind, be impractical and unfair on the seller.</li>
</ol>
For the Record
<ul>
<li>
If an agent quotes $1 million in the final week of the campaign, then passes it in and says the reserve is $1.3 million, then that is underquoting and it is illegal. We feel the agents or the seller (if it was their instruction) should be prosecuted in court, if this is systemic within an agency. We do not approve of this. 
</li>
<li>
If an agent quotes $1 million, updates openly, and a week later the quote is $1.1 million. Then another week later is $1.2 million and then says the reserve is $1.3 million on the day; then that may be sharp practice, but not necessarily illegal. This is step quoting, not underquoting, and we can see both sides of the argument – especially in a rising and/or strong market. A buyer who comes in the first week of a campaign, gets a quote and then turns up to auction three weeks later with no other agent contact, expecting the result to fall within the initial quote range; is, in this market, unreasonable and naive. 
</li>
<li>
If an agent quotes $1.3 million and passes it in at $1.3 million and all buyers think it is worth $1 million, then that is not necessarily misquoting, it may just be a sign that we live in a free country (the seller can ask whatever he or she likes). 
</li>
<li>If an agent quotes $1 million and puts it on the market at $1.1 million and it sells under the hammer at $1.3 million, then that is the market and good agent work – which we approve of. We recognise that the agents have been ethical and have worked well for the vendor. </li>
<li>If an agent is responsive to the market, open in their communication and amends and updates the quote to $1.2 million to $1.3 million in the week of the auction and it sells at $1.28 million and the agent does this regularly, then that is the sign of an ethical, professional and competent quoter. You should engage the agent if you are a seller and respect them if you are a buyer. This is the agent that in the long run gets the best (money and deal) results for the sellers. </li>
<li>If an agent achieves the previous scenario eight times out of 10, then even on the two out of 10 times the agent gets it “wrong” they are still being ethical and professional if they are sincere in their attempts to communicate to the market.</li>
</ul>
Quoting perfection (100 out of 100) is not possible – as ethical and professional buyer advocates we cannot give 100 out of 100 price estimating perfection to our clients in a shifting market. This is not to excuse the serial underquoters incompetent or criminal behaviour; this is to explain to the public that professional, accurate agent quoting is about intent rather than perfection.
The real estate industry has many genuine and competent selling agents, but there is still an underlying mentality to get all buyers to a home rather than communicate.
In conclusion and to be clear, we at James Buyer Advocates think agent quoting is actually very simple, irrespective of the individual situations or the market.
It is all about intent. Is the agent trying to deceive or to inform?
For more information read our much repeated article <a href="/expert-insights/investing/13514-a-smart-buyers-guide-to-step-quoting" target="_blank">explaining step and underquoting</a> written a number of years ago.
The headline has been updated since initial publication.
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For the record: Underquoting is a problem, but the main issue is intent

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The best description for the market right now is BIG. Real BIG. Which is not abnormal for this time of the year, nonetheless, it feels bigger than the last few years.
BIG in all aspects:
<ul id="mf94">
<li id="mf95">BIG deals</li>
<li id="mf96">BIG price</li>
<li id="mf97">BIG demand</li>
<li id="mf98">BIG supply</li>
</ul>
Is this much choice good or bad?
In many ways, as Westerners we are brought up to think choice means freedom and freedom means happiness. On that logic there should be a lot of happy buyers out there right now.
Are there?
For many buyers there is simply too much choice for them to act. What do we mean?
If you are new to the market and you have a softly/softly or analytical or cautious personality then quite possibly you are finding the Inner Melbourne market a bit daunting right now. Too much information, too many options to weigh up and too much.
There is a solution and that involves professional advice and a bespoke plan tailored to your real needs and wants. First step suggested would be to slash the number or options you consider and restrict the freedom of choice you apply to yourself. Wow, I’m practically a communist you say. Cutting back will help you, not hurt you, I promise.
Thinking Apartments
The resale apartment market is as strong now as it has been for many years and this is mainly due to the combination of the baby boomers losing their kids, agents knocking on doors offering incredible money and the continuing strength of the overseas Asian market.
We like apartments as lifestyle buys, however just because you’ve got money in the bank shouldn’t mean that you put your financial brain into neutral. There are a few traps for the inexperienced player.
<ol id="mf113">
<li id="mf114">What is the going price per square metre? Is it $8,000 or is it $12,000. Oh, the selling agent will let you know as it’s hard to find pricing. Are you crazy?</li>
<li id="mf115">What is the size of the apartment? Oh, it feels like 250 square metres says the agent? Are you fair dinkum?</li>
</ol>
Even though we love buying family homes at auction it’s only part of what we do. We also buy apartments for clients in highrise inner Melbourne or low-rise suburban.
Five concepts to encourage you to get professional buying help
<ol id="mf119">
<li id="mf120">At 50 you have more years in the future than your working life in the past. This won’t be the last home you buy – in fact, far from it for many of you. 
</li>
<li id="mf121">Some apartment types have historically had a lot lower growth than inner Melbourne homes – although this information is hard to find. Your nest egg needs to be protected. 
</li>
<li id="mf122">A $3 million apartment that you value at $14,000 per square metre on new build rates as opposed to $11,000 resale per square metre rates means a $600,000 calculation difference. 
</li>
<li id="mf123">An apartment that you accept as 210 square metre, but in fact measures up at 190 square metre, means an overpaying of $220,000 at $11,000 per square metre. 
</li>
<li id="mf124">Most apartments are not transparently sold via auction, so it’s pretty easy to buy poorly and be $200,000 over value instead of buying well and being $200,000 under value. Do that a few times and come 70 you will be living well or living poorly. The only thing you had to do differently was get some independent, professional, buying help.</li>
</ol>
Another $1 million in your back pocket for free, due to a good decision. Even though you and I are getting older, $1 million should still mean something.
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Don't leave your financial brain in neutral: A few traps for the inexperienced buyer

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If you are a buyer, perhaps re-think your position.
The Inner Melbourne million dollar plus market is at its strongest levels in terms or bidders, sellers and action in three years. There is no evidence of an end in sight, despite the current mainstream media’s obsession with doom.
Yes, the market may change next week, but it hasn’t yet and your buying strategies need to be in sync with the current market (if you want to buy).
The Block is not real – it’s fairy tales and it’s not a true representation of the Inner Melbourne housing market – it’s a true representation of poorly thought out buying and selling procedures in the apartment market.
Below is the real market and we think real buyers know this.
We bought four last week (two off market) and missed a young buyer's home.
<ul>
<li>All bar one had competition and we have 12 auctions and negotiations next week (double Super Saturday). 
</li>
<li>We as James Buyer Advocates are experiencing significant client demand on good homes. The market right now is incredibly strong and robust and  the average amount of bidders per auction supports that again, as it has all year. 
</li>
<li>The long-term bidder average does not lie – if its consistently over two, then the market is strong and getting stronger – it’s all about buyer depth.</li>
</ul>
When will it end?
We have no idea, but it hasn’t ended yet.
Here is our good buyer plan till Christmas:
<ol>
<li>
Consider engaging a professional buying team. Break the ‘losing cycle’ and become a buyer … of a good home. Get on board your team, one that really understands property. No, not the accountant that always says don’t do it. Yes to an accountant that actually owns property, has his or her own wealth and is successful in business. No, not a financial planner that tells you to buy off the plan or ready made investments while they are trousering a big commission. Yes to a financial planner that understands and helps build your wealth through home ownership. No to a banker who’s name escapes you. Yes to a private banker or broker whom you have a longer term relationship with. No to a buyer advocate that can’t show you 50 similar homes they have bought, unless of course you want them to “learn” on your job. Yes to a good buyer advocate. But hold on, what about all those advocate fees? A good advocate can cost 1% – the market is moving more than that each month – bought two months ago and you are in front even after the professional fee. Plus, please do not think that many of your real competitors (other buyers in your price range) are not getting professional help. 
</li>
<li>
Consider a plan that works. Many people's plan revolves around a fear of paying too much. Too much last year is 15% below what you may have to pay now. 
</li>
<li>
Arm yourself with knowledge. Understand that you are not just embarrassing yourself when you bid without knowledge at auction, but you are also leaving yourself open to buying poorly. Being back on the market reselling your home in the near future is seven times more expensive (fees, stamp duty, reselling costs, interest) than the professional fee you may pay to buy well in the first place – and what about the emotional turmoil. 
</li>
<li>
You don’t trust the selling agent – in fact you know he stretches the truth, yet you use him to bid to buy your dream home because he is ‘free’. Do you think the selling agent from another company, will be helping your selling agent, help you buy well. Are you really thinking this through?</li>
</ol>
You have three to four more weekends of good stock before February.
Self interest in above comments – yes, no doubt. Self interest for us and self interest for you. That’s very different from a selling agent – self interest for them and their selling client, no self interest for you the buyer.
Mal writes weekly auction reports, advice and in-depth market analysis on <a href="https://www.jamesbuyeradvocates.com.au/" target="_blank">James' website</a>.
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Your buying strategies need to be in sync with the current market

<html><body>
Each week for almost two years we have heard auctioneers proclaim now is a good time to buy as interest rates are low. In the media recently, we now read we are in a housing 'bubble'.
If there is to be any interest rate changes this time around, they may have to be particularly punitive to have an effect on the current Inner Melbourne $1 million plus market.
Why?
Because interest rates are not a direct key driver of the currently strong inner Melbourne $1 million plus market.
In our opinion the current key drivers of this market are
<ol>
<li>
Population/locals/demand with long-term increased “non debt” wealth. When you are not using debt to fund your homes, or if you are using say 50% debt, then interest rate movements do not affect you as much as if you were using 90% debt to fund your home. From our experience of buying 100 plus homes every year, we see that very few inner Melbourne $1 million plus homes are bought on 90% debt ratios. We note that interest rate increases can dampen business demand, which ultimately affects a business-owner home buyer. But that takes some time to have an effect if the business owner is low on debt as many are since the GFC – we are. The Inner Melbourne $1 million plus market has at its foundations a lot of local professionals who are immune from interest rates effecting their businesses such as doctors. The Million dollar super fund that buys <a class="st_tag internal_tag" href="https://marketnews.com.au/tag/property/" title="Posts tagged with Property" rel="tag" style="line-height: 1.3em;">property</a> is now an active phenomenon that wasn’t here pre GFC. And of course there are other tax advantaged investors who create demand and limit supply. 
</li>
<li>
Chinese nationals If you are a Chinese national then Australian interest rates only seem to refocus your home buying activities when there are major changes in the Australian dollar such as 10 or 20 cents rather than 1 or 2 cents. This we see when competing against and acting on behalf of Chinese nationals during times when the Australian dollar is fluctuating dramatically.
</li>
</ol>
We think minor interest rate changes have little effect on the above.
Inner Melbourne home buying demand is a bit like inner Melbourne traffic – demand is so deep and supply so restricted that game changers that worked 20 years ago, such as new freeways, may not work today.
Right now interest rate changes may not change the strength in home buying demand – a new tool is needed and we’re not sure fear of higher interest rates is that “new” answer and besides it’s not new anyway.
Fear is a primal behaviour changer. There’s no question the media talk since the winter break has changed and now has a focus on fear such as bubble, unsustainable, record and so on.
But will fear have the desired effect? And who will affected the most?
Is the inner Melbourne $1 million plus home buying market a more sophisticated, seemingly less debt orientated market, more overseas based than it was pre-GFC? We think so.
The inner Melbourne $1 million plus waterhole has limited capacity and holding back the herd through fear can only work for a while – ultimately we all still need to drink. When you are actively increasing the size of the herd, maybe you need to look there; rather than trying to change the behaviour of the herd, if a sustainable future, especially for younger home buyers is a worthwhile goal.
Are stock levels causing this current market to do what it is doing?
With two big auction weekends coming up – any talk of market strength being solely due to low stock levels will be proved or disproved.
We think it will be disproved as we see an underlying strength across the board – except right at the Top. At the top, the market is not quite as consistent as it is at the lower levels.
There have been consistently well above two bidders per auction each week and that says to us the bidder depth should be able to soak up this first wave of spring stock – meaning buyers will have to compete.
But if we’re wrong then you’ll read it here soon.
Mal writes weekly auction reports, advice and in-depth market analysis on <a href="https://www.jamesbuyeradvocates.com.au/" target="_blank">James' website</a>.
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Low interest rates aren't driving the inner Melbourne market

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There has been an underlying strength in the Melbourne market since October 2012, but right now it looks like it has gone up a notch again.
Over the last year or so we have talked about t<a href="https://www.urban.com.au/expert-insights/32746-how-the-auction-process-really-works-a-buyer-s-guide-to-step-quoting&amp;sa=U&amp;ei=96UHVLCiHMzi8AXgx4CQBg&amp;ved=0CAYQFjAA&amp;client=internal-uds-cse&amp;usg=AFQjCNHmfO2c38Sb4Tzkzhwo7p7YKN3z5g" target="_blank">he staircase market in the inner Melbourne auction scene</a>; meaning for a month or so it seems to go hot, go incredibly strong and then it flattens out for a while, before giving another burst again. There is no doubt that in late August 2014 we are in another rise.
And at James Buyer Advocates we think it has little to do with the lack of stock (in fact we don’t even think there is a serious lack of good stock right now, remember the stock drought of 2012, today is nothing like 2012). No, we think the current market is all about the strong waves of demand on the right homes.
As we said last week, it’s not so much about the bidders who bought, but the ones who didn’t. What will they do next week or next month when they return to the fray on the next property they choose to compete on?
Chinese Nationals – Scripts, Dialogues and Fear
Where is this strong demand coming from? In our opinion it’s coming right across the board and it is the Chinese nationals who are squeezing the hardest.
But it is not just their actual bidding that is creating the near frenzied bidding response that we are seeing out there right now.
Since 2007 and the FIRB law changes, Chinese nationals bidding have been the single most dominant reason why the Melbourne market has done what it has done (basically outperformed almost everywhere else in the world) and right now in 2014 their influence as a bidding group remains unabated.
However even when no Chinese nationals are bidding, it’s the fear of Chinese nationals bidding that is also pushing prices up. Ask any agent on an inner east home coming to auction and they will tell you we have some “Chinese interest” – it is something firmly implanted in many agents’ “buyer scripts”.
In other words, buyers not only bid as they do against Chinese national bidders but also on the fear that Chinese nationals may bid. The fear issue is also pronounced in expressions of interest and private sales.
Unless the overall bidding of Chinese nationals is affected by something, we feel the market will continue to be strong for some time.
My last 10 purchases I have been directly involved in (Kew, Camberwell, East Melbourne, Elwood, Camberwell, Glen Iris, Camberwell, Kew, Camberwell and Kew) saw Chinese nationals as the direct underbidder on five, used in the selling agents negotiating scripts twice and no mention of Chinese bidders by agents on the other three.
Please note we act for a number of Chinese nationals and they also are affected by the bidding or fear the bidding of other Chinese nationals.
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Mal James

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