No magic interstate migrant influx coming to float Queensland’s real estate boat

Several have claimed, in response to our recent posts, that Queensland’s rising population growth, fuelled by interstate inflows from both Sydney and Melbourne, will create a ‘mini-real estate boom’ in south-east Queensland.

Could they be right?

Well, sadly, the stats tell a very different story.

Just spend a few seconds looking at the three charts below.

One would think that rising house prices would get more residents to start leaving both Sydney and Melbourne.  But maybe it is more than just this that matters.

Migrants, mostly – from interstate or overseas – need to work.  Unless more jobs are created in Queensland and wages start to accelerate, then Queensland’s population growth will continue to slow.  As we have been saying for some time, the key to a sustainable Queensland recovery is job and wage growth.

Amenity is higher in Sydney and Melbourne – it is and don’t bother trying to argue otherwise. There is nothing wrong with Brisbane; I have chosen to live here.  It just hasn’t got the 24/7 lifestyle that the southern capitals offer.  And that appears to be increasingly important to many.

Climate alone doesn’t cut it anymore.  In fact, it never did – jobs and lower taxes attracted most interstate migrants in the past.  Those attracted mainly because of Queensland’s weather were often the underemployed or unemployed.  Yet, increasingly these days, it would appear that even the down and out prefer to live somewhere else. 

So Queensland’s population growth - my recalcitrant correspondents – maybe isn’t doing what you think it is.  Fewer people are migrating to Queensland from interstate than ever before.  In contrast, population growth is increasing in NSW and Victoria.

Now, we do expect more to move north from Sydney and Melbourne as their housing markets peak.  But this ‘priced-out of home’ movement northwards looks like it has lost a lot of its previous oomph.

Queensland’s declining market share of interstate migration – as the third chart clearly shows – has been a long trend.  Something is amiss; a past connection broken.  Maybe it cannot be fixed.

In short, it looks like there is no magic influx coming to float Queensland’s real estate boat.

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