Housing turnover trends much lower down to fewer sales: Cameron Kusher
EXPERT OBSERVATIONS
Over the 12 months to November 2018, turnover of national housing stock was recorded at 4.6%.
Over the nine years shown on the chart it was the lowest turnover of stock and was down from 5.3% the previous year.
Turnover has been trending lower since it was recorded at 6.3% in mid-2015.
CoreLogic data has revealed that the decline in housing turnover was more pronounced across the combined capital cities as opposed to regional markets.
12 months ago, capital city turnover was 5.3% compared to 4.5% over the past year and across the combined regional markets it was 5.9% a year ago compared to 5.5% over the past year.
Sydney turnover over the past year was the lowest it has been over any of the past nine years due to a significant fall in property sales.
Over the past year, 4.8% of Sydney housing transacted compared to 6.0% a year earlier.
Turnover remains much greater in regional NSW however, it has also fallen over the past 12 months from 7.5% to 6.6%, the lowest it has been since mid-2016.
As dwelling values and sales volumes fall in Melbourne, turnover has also slid to its lowest level any time over the past nine years.
Over the 12 months to November 2018, 4.2% of housing stock transacted compared to 5.3% a year earlier.
In regional Vic, turnover is actually higher this year (5.7%) than it was last year (5.6%) however, it has trended lower from 5.9% in June 2018.
In both Brisbane and regional Qld housing turnover is trending lower however, in each region turnover was lower back in 2011 than it is currently.
Over the past 12 months, 4.5% of housing stock in Brisbane and 4.8% of housing stock in regional Qld has transacted.
By comparison, a year earlier 5.1% of housing stock in both Brisbane and regional Qld traded hands.
Housing turnover in Adelaide has been steady over the past year recorded at 4.6% in both November 2017 and November 2018.
In regional SA housing turnover has actually increased over the past year from 3.8% of stock to 4.1% of stock.
The share of housing stock which turns-over each year in Perth and regional WA has been very low for a number of years.
This is due to the ongoing weak economy (and housing market) which is resulting in very low sales volumes.
Over the past year, 4.0% of housing stock in Perth and 3.9% of housing stock in regional WA turned-over.
By comparison, a year ago turnover was greater in Perth (4.2%) but slightly lower in regional WA (3.8%).
Dwelling values in Tasmania continue to rise however, transaction volumes (and turnover) is falling due to a lack of supply of properties listed for sale.
In Hobart, turnover was recorded at 5.4% in November 2018, down from 6.1% a year earlier.
In regional Tas, turnover was steady between November 2017 and 2018 at 6.3% however, it has fallen slightly over recent months.
Turnover of housing stock across the NT has been low for a number of years due to very low volumes of sale.
Over the past year, 3.5% of housing stock in Darwin transacted compared to 3.6% a year earlier.
In regional NT, 4.5% of housing stock sold over the past year compared to 4.6% a year earlier.
Turnover in Canberra is unchanged over the past year at 4.8%.
Although the measure is the same, turnover has fallen over recent months from 5.0% in July and August of this year.
The data shows a declining trend in housing turnover across most geographies and is being driven by a number of factors with the main factors such as affordability (particularly in Sydney and Melbourne) and the ongoing tightening of credit conditions.
While affordability and credit conditions have worsened, the volume of stock for sale has actually increased with ample stock for sale to encourage turnover but credit access is crimping turnover.
With credit conditions expected to remain tight over the coming months, the expectation is for fewer sales transactions and an ongoing fall in housing turnover.
