Housing Turnover

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GUEST OBSERVER
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At a national level, the six month average trend shows that the number of dwelling sales is starting to trend slightly higher. 
Of note is that settled sales peaked all the way back in July 2003, a time at which the population was around 4.7 million lower than it is currently. 
While the national population increased by almost 4.7 million persons between June 2003 and December 2016, a commensurate lift in transactions has not occurred. 
This is likely due to a number of reasons including the impost of stamp duty which discourages transactions, higher prices which lead to greater commission on sales and no real incentives for people to downsize homes when their children leave or they reach retirement. 
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/08/03/Screen%20Shot%202017-08-03%20at%209.49.56%20AM.png" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2017/08/03/Screen%20Shot%202017-08-03%20at%209.49.56%20AM.png" alt="">
Across the individual capital cities the number of sales and the transaction trends are somewhat mixed. 
Sydney – annual sales volumes are -0.9% lower year on year however, they have been trending higher from a recent low in April 2017.
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Melbourne – transaction volumes are slightly higher than their recent low however, annual settled sales are -7.6% lower than they were over the 12 months to July 2016. 
Brisbane – annual sales volumes are -9.7% lower over the past year and the number of transactions is clearly continuing to trend lower across the city. 
Adelaide – over the past year, the number of sales throughout the city was only -0.9% lower than over the previous year and the trend data indicates fairly stable transaction volumes. 
Perth – settled sales are substantially lower than their peak and annual sales have fallen by a further -1.1% over the past year however, monthly data points to a recent stabilisation in transaction activity. 
Hobart - the city has seen a substantial lift in transactions over the past 12 months with annual sales 10.9% higher over the past year. 
Darwin – on an annual basis, sales volumes have increased by 10.7% and they have shifted higher off an historic low base. 
Canberra – settled sales are slightly lower over the year, down -1.4% however, there has been a moderate lift in transactions recently.
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/08/03/Screen%20Shot%202017-08-03%20at%209.50.53%20AM.png" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2017/08/03/Screen%20Shot%202017-08-03%20at%209.50.53%20AM.png" alt="">
 
The settled sales insights highlights that although some regions are seeing transactions rise they remain well down on historic high levels. 
The relatively lower volume of transactions across markets experiencing positive population growth highlights the ongoing inefficiencies in the housing market which discourage transactions. 
These inefficiencies (detailed earlier) also have an economic impact as the high cost of exiting and entering the housing market is likely to impact on labour mobility as home owners may choose not to move for employment because of these high costs. 
Note: Property transaction are an important component of the housing market, particularly for participants such as real estate agents and mortgage brokers that rely on turnover for their commission. Furthermore, transactions are an important source of stamp duty revenue for state governments. 
It is important to note the way in which property transactions are recorded. All data is based on settled sales which means off-the- plan sales are counted once the property settles. Upon settlement, which can be several years after the contract date, off-the-plan sales are recorded at their contract date which means recent years of sales will be subject to revision. 
Cameron Kusher is research analyst for CoreLogic. You can contact him <a href="https://blog.corelogic.com.au/about/" target="_blank">here</a>.
 
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Number of dwelling sales starting to trend higher

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EXPERT OBSERVATIONS
Over the 12 months to November 2018, turnover of national housing stock was recorded at 4.6%.
Over the nine years shown on the chart it was the lowest turnover of stock and was down from 5.3% the previous year.
Turnover has been trending lower since it was recorded at 6.3% in mid-2015.
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2018/12/5/Turnover%20CL%201.JPG" alt="">
CoreLogic data has revealed that the decline in housing turnover was more pronounced across the combined capital cities as opposed to regional markets.
12 months ago, capital city turnover was 5.3% compared to 4.5% over the past year and across the combined regional markets it was 5.9% a year ago compared to 5.5% over the past year.
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2018/12/5/Turnover%20CL%202.JPG" alt="">
Sydney turnover over the past year was the lowest it has been over any of the past nine years due to a significant fall in property sales.
Over the past year, 4.8% of Sydney housing transacted compared to 6.0% a year earlier.
Turnover remains much greater in regional NSW however, it has also fallen over the past 12 months from 7.5% to 6.6%, the lowest it has been since mid-2016.
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2018/12/5/Turnover%20CL%203.JPG" alt="">
 
As dwelling values and sales volumes fall in Melbourne, turnover has also slid to its lowest level any time over the past nine years.
Over the 12 months to November 2018, 4.2% of housing stock transacted compared to 5.3% a year earlier.
In regional Vic, turnover is actually higher this year (5.7%) than it was last year (5.6%) however, it has trended lower from 5.9% in June 2018.
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2018/12/5/Turnover%20CL%204.JPG" alt="">
 
In both Brisbane and regional Qld housing turnover is trending lower however, in each region turnover was lower back in 2011 than it is currently.
Over the past 12 months, 4.5% of housing stock in Brisbane and 4.8% of housing stock in regional Qld has transacted.
By comparison, a year earlier 5.1% of housing stock in both Brisbane and regional Qld traded hands.
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2018/12/5/Turnover%20CL%205.JPG" alt="">
Housing turnover in Adelaide has been steady over the past year recorded at 4.6% in both November 2017 and November 2018.
In regional SA housing turnover has actually increased over the past year from 3.8% of stock to 4.1% of stock.
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2018/12/5/Turnover%20CL%206.JPG" alt="">
The share of housing stock which turns-over each year in Perth and regional WA has been very low for a number of years.
This is due to the ongoing weak economy (and housing market) which is resulting in very low sales volumes.
Over the past year, 4.0% of housing stock in Perth and 3.9% of housing stock in regional WA turned-over.
By comparison, a year ago turnover was greater in Perth (4.2%) but slightly lower in regional WA (3.8%).
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2018/12/5/Turnover%20CL%207.JPG" alt="">
Dwelling values in Tasmania continue to rise however, transaction volumes (and turnover) is falling due to a lack of supply of properties listed for sale.
In Hobart, turnover was recorded at 5.4% in November 2018, down from 6.1% a year earlier.
In regional Tas, turnover was steady between November 2017 and 2018 at 6.3% however, it has fallen slightly over recent months.
 
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2018/12/5/Turnover%20CL%208.JPG" alt="">
Turnover of housing stock across the NT has been low for a number of years due to very low volumes of sale.
Over the past year, 3.5% of housing stock in Darwin transacted compared to 3.6% a year earlier.
In regional NT, 4.5% of housing stock sold over the past year compared to 4.6% a year earlier.
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2018/12/5/Turnover%20CL%209.JPG" alt="">
Turnover in Canberra is unchanged over the past year at 4.8%.
Although the measure is the same, turnover has fallen over recent months from 5.0% in July and August of this year.
The data shows a declining trend in housing turnover across most geographies and is being driven by a number of factors with the main factors such as affordability (particularly in Sydney and Melbourne) and the ongoing tightening of credit conditions.
While affordability and credit conditions have worsened, the volume of stock for sale has actually increased with ample stock for sale to encourage turnover but credit access is crimping turnover.
With credit conditions expected to remain tight over the coming months, the expectation is for fewer sales transactions and an ongoing fall in housing turnover.
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2018/12/5/Turnover%20CL%2010.JPG" alt="">
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Housing turnover trends much lower down to fewer sales: Cameron Kusher

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EXPERT OBSERVATION
The number of properties that sell within a given year accounts for a very small portion of the overall market and has trended even lower over recent years. Over the 12 months to July 2018, 4.6 per cent of national dwellings transacted, down from 5.3 per cent a year ago. 
The more pronounced decline in turnover rates over the year to July is hardly a surprise given current market conditions, with dwelling values softening each month now for the past 12 months; coupled with the lowest levels of new stock being added to the market seen since 2012 over the past 6 months, as confidence wanes and homes take longer to sell. However, the long term trend can be attributable to a variety of factors and will differ between each of the regions. 
Housing affordability has likely had a large impact on the broader downward trend in turnover rates, where the likes of Sydney and Melbourne would have weighed heavily, given the high growth seen across these larger markets relative to only mild growth in household incomes. Fifteen years ago the dwelling price to income ratio as a national figure showed that dwelling prices were 5.1 times as high as the gross household income, while recent data shows this has increased to 6.8. In Sydney and Melbourne, where affordability has been a challenge for prospective buyers for some time, the price to income ratio sits at 9.1 and 8.1 respectively. In turn, what can been seen as housing has become less affordable across some capital city markets, regional areas have benefitted from the flow-on effect for being the more affordable option.
In addition, the high transactional cost to both purchase and sell property has likely added a further barrier to housing market participation. From the sell side there are marketing costs, agent fees and commission, legal costs and potentially some costs associated with getting the property ready to present to market. From the buy side, stamp duty costs as percentage of the purchase price are a major barrier to entry, especially in the more expensive markets as well as the costs associated with building and pest inspections and conveyancing.  
More recently, credit rationing has provided an additional dampening effect on housing activity.
<img src="https://www.corelogic.com.au/sites/default/files/2018-10/20181018_turnover_regional_vs_capital_city.jpg" alt="CoreLogic Turnover regional vs capital city" width="2016" height="1389">
Given the potential differences across each market, the analysis takes a look at turnover across each of the state’s capital city and non-capital city regions, including the top 5 council area’s across each state where the largest proportion of dwellings sold over the year.
Over the 12 months to July, 4 out of 7 of the rest of state regions recorded a higher level of turnover compared to their capital city counterpart. This was most prevalent across NSW, where Australia’s most expensive property market of Sydney saw a turnover rate of 4.1%, while outside of the metro area, turnover was at a considerably higher level with 5.6% of the market transacting over the year. 
The regional area of Tasmania saw the highest level of turnover of all regions with 6.1% of total dwelling turnover, while the lowest turnover levels were in WA (Perth 3.3%, Rest of WA 3.3%) and Darwin (3.5%).  Unsurprisingly, regional Tasmania has been one of the strongest housing markets for capital gains, with values up 8.1% over the past twelve months, while areas of Western Australia and Darwin have been amongst the weakest markets with dwelling values down materially since peaking in 2014.
<img src="https://www.corelogic.com.au/sites/default/files/2018-10/20181018_turnover_by_state.jpg" alt="CoreLogic Turnover by state" width="2600" height="1278">
<h3>Top 5 Council Regions by State – Highest Turnover </h3>
All top 5 NSW council regions with the highest rate of turnover were in non-capital city regions, topping the list with 8.5% of housing stock transacting over the year was Tumbarumba, followed by Dungog where 7.9% of total dwellings sold over the 12 months to July 18. Coming in equal third place was Upper Lachlan Shire and Palerang with a turnover rate of 7.7%. It should be noted that these regions all have shallow overall stock levels, with less than 5,000 dwellings across each of these council areas. 
3 of the 5 NT council regions were in the Greater Darwin capital city region, although it was regional Alice Springs that recorded the highest rate of yearly turnover with 4.9% of dwellings transacting over the 12 months to July 18. Katherine, located outside of the main capital city region was next on the list with a 4.0% rate of turnover. The remaining 3 capital city regions making up the top list all saw less than 4% of housing stock sell over the year, with NT council regions showing the lowest turnover rates out of the national list.
Regional area’s dominated the top 5 list in QLD; comprising mostly of lifestyle coastal regions where dwelling values have been rising over the last 12 months. Noosa saw the largest proportion of housing turnover over the 12 months to July 18 (7.4%), while further south on the Gold Coast, 7.2% of housing sold over the same period, however the Gold Coast council area covers a much larger geography with over 253,045 dwellings in the region. The Sunshine Coast where housing stock is also considerably higher saw a 6.9% rate of turnover over the year, while 6.3% of total dwellings transacted in both Gympie and Douglas.
4 out of 5 of the SA council regions were in regional areas of the state. Robe had the highest turnover at 7.2%, followed by Mount Gambier (6.7%) and Victor Harbor (6.6%).  While Alexandrina saw 6.2% of dwellings sell over the year, which was slightly lower the capital city region of Campbelltown (6.3%). 
Latrobe in regional Tasmania came in with the highest level of turnover over the year, with 7.4% of total dwellings transacting. The remaining 4 regions came in equal 2nd place with 7.3% of total housing turnover over the 12 months of July, this was across both capital city and regional areas of the state.
In VIC, the top 2 council regions with the highest turnover were in the main capital city region, where Wyndham saw 6.3% of properties sell over the year, followed by Cardinia with a turnover rate of 6.2%. The remaining 3 council regions making the highest turnover list were all in regional VIC, where Latrobe and Baw Baw both recorded a rate of turnover at 6%, while the Bass Coast saw 5.9% of dwellings sell over the 12 months to July 18.
Interestingly, WA’s top turnover area’s over the year were in the mining regions of Port Hedland, Karratha and East Pilbara, given values across these regions saw considerable declines coming out of the mining boom 10 years ago, resulting in less housing turnover; recent years have seen transaction levels increase and declines in the region ease. The capital city areas of Mandurah and Claremont were also on the list where 4.1% and 4.0% of dwellings transacted over the year respectively.
<img src="https://www.corelogic.com.au/sites/default/files/2018-10/20181018_highest_turnover_rates.jpg" alt="CoreLogic Highest Turnover Rates" width="767" height="1205"> 
Analysis includes council region data count of total sales as a percentage over total dwellings over the 12 months to July 2018. Suburbs with less than 1000 total dwellings excluded from the analysis.
Jade Harling is a Research Analyst for CoreLogic
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Housing Turnover

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