Expensive home sales volume in decline, with Hobart going against the capital city trend: Cameron Kusher

EXPERT OBSERVER

My analysis reveals that over the 2017-18 financial year, annual value growth fell from 10.2% over the previous financial year to a decline of -0.8% this year.

The largest fall in values is occurring for Sydney and Melbourne’s most expensive properties.

This has resulted in the number of sales at, or in excess, of $1 million starting to trend marginally lower across the nation.

As housing market conditions continue to weaken, it is anticipated that there will continue to be fewer sales above the $1 million threshold.

Over the 12 months to June 2018, 16.0% of all houses and 8.8% of all units sold nationally had a price of at least $1 million; the share of house and unit sales at this price point was slightly lower than the previous year when 16.1% of houses and 9.1% of unit sales were at this price point.

The share of $1 million plus sales is also down from the peak of 16.8% for houses in February 2018 and 9.4% for units in October 2017; 24.5% of houses and 10.7% of units were sold for at least $1 million over the 2017-18 financial year.

House sales at this price point were slightly higher than the 24.3% a year ago but down from the recent peak of 25.5% in February 2018.

The 10.7% of unit sales for at least $1 million was down from 11.1% a year ago as well as being lower than the 11.5% peak in October 2017.

Across the combined regional markets, 4.7% of all houses sold over the 2017-18 financial year transacted for at least $1 million.

A year earlier, 4.3% of all sales were at that price point however, the share of house sales at or above $1 million has fallen slightly from 4.8% in March 2018.

Four per cent of all units sold over the past year were at least $1 million which was a recordhigh share and up from 3.7% the previous year.

At its peak in March 2018, 50.4% of houses sold over the past year in Sydney transacted for at least $1 million with the figure since falling to 48.8% in June 2018.

The 48.8% share in June 2018 was slightly higher than the 48.6% a year earlier but clearly now trending lower.

Over the 12 months to June 2018, 21.2% of all unit sales were at least $1 million which was both down from a year ago (21.8%) and lower than the October 2017 peak (22.5%).

Over the 2017-18 financial year, 29.6% of houses and 8.% of units sold in Melbourne sold for at least $1 million.

The share of house sales at this price point was higher than the previous financial year (27.6%) while for units it was slightly lower (8.1%).

The share of sales of at least $1 million in Melbourne peaked in March 2018 for houses at 30.6% and peaked in January 2018 at 8.6% for units.

A historic high of 9.2% of houses and 3.3% of units in Brisbane were sold for at least $1 million over the 12 months to June 2018.

The share of sales of at least $1 million has risen quite considerably over the year from 8.1% for houses and 2.8% for units a year ago.

Over the 12 months to June 2017, 5.3% of Adelaide houses and 1.8% of units had been sold for at least $1 million.

12 months later, the share of sales within this price point had increased to new record-highs of 5.9% for houses and 2.0% for units.

Despite ongoing declines in values over recent years the share of sales of properties for at least $1 million in Perth has increased over the year.

In June 2017, 10.9% of houses and 3.8% of units sold for at least $1 million compared to 11.1% and 3.7% respectively in June 2018.

The share of houses sold for at least $1 million peaked in April 2018 at 11.3% while the share of unit sales over $1 million peaked at 5.6% in April 2008.

With Hobart dwelling values having surged over the past year there has been a substantial increase in the share of house sales of at least $1 million.

Over the 12 months to June 2018, 3.7% of all houses sold and 1.2% of all units sold transacted for $1 million or more.

The share of house sales of $1 million or more was a record high and up from 2.6% of all sales a year earlier.

The share of $1 million unit sales increased from 1.0% a year earlier but has eased back from a peak of 1.3% in January 2018.

As Darwin dwelling values have fallen over recent years so too has the share of sales of properties for at least $1 million.

At the peak in February 2015, 5.9% of all house sales were at least $1 million while for units, the peak of 3.1% of all sales occurred in August 2015.

Over the past 12 months, 3.8% of all house sales were at least $1 million which was steady over the year while 0.9% of all unit sales were seven figures over the past year compared to 1.4% a year ago.

Over the 2017-18 financial year, 14.1% of all house sales and 2.5% of all unit sales in Canberra were at least $1 million.

The 14.1% of house sales for at least $1 million was an historic high while the share of seven figure sales of units peaked in March 2016 at 3.1%.

The share of $1 million house and unit sales both increased over the year from 12.0% and 1.9% respectively.

In closing, with dwelling values declining and much more rapid declines across the most expensive housing stock it is reasonable to expect the share of $1 million sales to trend lower over the coming year.

This will largely be driven by weakening in Sydney and Melbourne. Smaller capital cities are also likely to continue to see the share of $1 million sales climb further too.

Cameron Kusher is a CoreLogic research analyst