Hobart

The Melbourne-based developer Bensons Property Group has purchased a Battery Point development site.

It intends to build a $50 million apartment project with a penthouse with $10 million sale prospects.

Close to Sullivan&rsquo;s Cove, the boutique project is set to be 30 apartments with a $1 million staring price.

The site cost about $7 million through Knight Frank with The Australian reporting the move was driven by the company&rsquo;s &shy;chairman and founder Elias Jreissati and wife Colleen, who want to add to the company&rsquo;s luxury interstate projects.

Completion is expected in late 2023.

Bensons chief executive Rick Curtis said they will work closely with Hobart City Council and the local community on revised plans for the site.

It spans 1442 sqm on the corner of Knopwood St and Montpelier Retreat.

The approved DA allows for the construction of 30 luxury apartments, basement carparking for 46 cars.

The site set 200m from the Salamanca Place and Hobart waterfront was offered with a short term lease to Care Park.

The Jreissati family have owned a Hobart apartment for more than five years in Battery Point.

The Jreissati family supports the arts in Hobart.

The site will include a public open space embedded with art created by Tasmanian artists.

Bensons Property Group is set to create the first high-rise residential tower on Chevron Island, minutes from the beaches of Surfers Paradise.

Its Chevron One project will form part of the new arts and cultural precinct for the Gold Coast.

Melbourne-based developer Bensons Property Group has snapped up the development site close to Sullivan’s Cove

jchancellor

$10m Hobart penthouse in Bensons Property Group project

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Apartment vendors across the major capital cities have been securing close to their asking prices, according to CoreLogic

The latest data shows that Canberra is the apartment market where vendors do not need to discount their asking prices by that much.

The median required discount in Canberra is 1.7 percent.

Across the other capital cities there is a prospect that apartment vendors require to adjust their asking prices by between 2.2 percent to 2.6 percent in order to secure a sale.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=2772]

Hobart is the fastest selling city for both apartments and houses.

<img alt="" height="458" src="https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/pictures/article-images/cl_2021_apt_vendors.jpg" width="643">

House vendors are a little more ambitious in their asking prices with the required discount needing to be offered to buyers sitting in the range of 2.2 percent to 3 percent.
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Apartment vendors across the major capital cities have been securing close to their asking prices, according to CoreLogic

Apartment vendors selling at close to asking prices: CoreLogic

<html><body>The city of Hobart has again seen a very high rate of profit making sales with 97.2% of resales making money for their vendors in the last quester of 2020.

The rate of profit making sales increased further over the December quarter, up from 96% in the three months to September, the CoreLogic pain and gain report noted.

The lowest typical hold period associated with a profit making sales across the nation was across regional Tasmanian units, where the median hold period on a profit-making sale was just 6.7 years.

The report noted that in the 6.7 years to December 2020, regional Tasmania unit values increased around 40%, compared to an increase in unit values across the Australia-wide market of approximately 7%.

Hobart continued as the most profitable capital city across Australia in terms of the portion of resales with 97.2% of observed resales making a nominal gain in the December 2020 quarter, up from 96.7% in the three months to September.

Hobart houses saw a slightly higher rate of profit making sales (97%) than units (95.2%) in the December quarter. 

It was 97.7% in the rest of Tasmania for houses and 96.2% for rest of Tasmania units. 

"Interestingly, the rate of profit making unit sales increased 80 basis points in the quarter while the portion of unit profit making sales actually declined 80 basis points," the report noted.

Each local government area of Hobart saw a high level of profitability in the December quarter, ranging from 93.3% across Sorrell, to 98.3% across Brighton. 

Hobart has seen a renewed surge in values off the back of the cash rate reduction in November, and will likely see continued increases in profitability through the March 2021 quarter, CoreLogic forecast.

Eliza Owen, Core Logic’s Head of Research noted the lowest incidence of profit making sales across the capital cities was across Darwin, where 51.4% of properties sold for a loss.</body></html>

The city of Hobart once again saw the highest rate of profit making sales at 97%. 

Hobart and regional Tasmania units are selling quick and at big profits

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GUEST OBSERVER
The CoreLogic RP Data Home Value Index of capital city home prices rose by 0.5 percent in February after a 0.9 percent lift in January. Home prices were up by 7.6 per cent over the year to February.
Dwelling prices rose in six of the eight capital cities in February.
The Performance of Manufacturing index rose by 2 points to 53.5 in February – a near six year high. A reading above 50.0 indicates that the sector is expanding. Production, new orders and exports lifted in February
The economic data continues to surprise on a positive note. The manufacturing sector is now expanding at the fast pace in almost six years. And when it comes to home prices it is a case of modest strength – but more encouragingly price growth is more spread out and not just Sydney and Melbourne centric.
Dwelling prices rose in six of the eight capital cities. But the lift in home prices in Hobart, Adelaide and Brisbane was the icing on the cake. In fact home prices in Hobart have now lifted by 8.5 per cent in the past three months. It seems investors and home buyers are shifting away from the traditional growth markets of Sydney and
Melbourne and looking for more attractively-priced property in other cities.
It is still early days but the perfect outcome would be if the majority of regional areas recorded a lift in dwelling values. The “Rest of State” price index lifted by 0.6 per cent in February, although annual growth is still subdued at 2.2 per cent. This highlights the issues facing policymakers in attempting to manage a very diverse housing market. What we would expect to see is the lift in capital city house prices continues to filter out across the regional towns over the next 12-24 months.
The consolidation in home prices is unlikely to see home building dry up. There is a record pipeline of dwelling approvals that suggest a lot of building work will take place over the next two years - supportive of a lift in activity levels over the medium term.
The rebalancing effect across the economy continues to take place. Manufacturing activity has now expanded for eight consecutive months – marking the longest streak in ten years. More importantly the sub-indices like, production, new orders and exports, are showing a credible lift. No doubt the weaker Australian dollar will continue to support the sector. In addition low resource prices – particularly for oil - are keeping down input costs and also providing a boost to the sector.
<a href="/images/2016/03/Screen%20Shot%202016-03-01%20at%2011.50.38%20AM.png" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="/images/2016/03/Screen%20Shot%202016-03-01%20at%2011.50.38%20AM.png" alt="" width="814" height="591">
The latest data should ensure that the Reserve Bank continues to remain on the interest rate sidelines. If a rate cut was to take place it would be as a result of a downturn in the global economy rather than domestic economic conditions.
What do the figures show?
Home prices
The CoreLogic RP Data Hedonic Australian Home Value index of capital city home prices rose by 0.5 percent in February after a 0.9 per cent lift in January. Home prices were up by 7.6 per cent over the year to February.
House prices rose by 0.6 percent in February while apartment prices fell by 0.1 percent. House prices were up 7.8 percent on a year ago and apartments were up by 6.2 percent.
The average Australian capital city house price (median price based on settled sales over quarter) was $572,000 and the average unit price was $480,000.
Dwelling prices rose in six of the eight capital cities in February: Hobart (up 2.9 percent), Adelaide (up 1.9 percent, Brisbane (up 0.8 percent), Sydney (up 0.5 percent), Darwin (up 0.4 percent) and Melbourne (up 0.3 percent). Prices fell most in Perth (down 1.1 percent), followed by Canberra (down 0.2 percent).
Home prices were higher than a year ago in six of the eight capital cities. Prices rose most in Melbourne (up 11.1 percent), followed by Sydney (up 9.5 percent), Hobart (up 6.2 percent), Brisbane (up 5.5 percent), Canberra (up 4.5 percent) and Adelaide (up 2.8 percent). Prices fell in Perth (down 3.1 percent), and Darwin (down 2.9 percent).
Total returns on capital city dwellings in the year to February rose by 11.5 per cent with houses up 11.6 percent on a year earlier and units up 10.9 per cent.
 Performance of Manufacturing
The Performance of Manufacturing index rose by 2 points to 53.5 in February – its highest level since July 2010.
AIG notes “February was the eighth consecutive month in which the Australian PMI has been above 50 points (net expansion). This is the longest continuous run of expansion since 2006.”
Across the sub-indices; production (60.1 points), new orders (52.4 points), stocks (52.5 points), deliveries (53.5 points) exports (53.7 points) and sales (53.0 points) were positive in February. Employment (47.4 points), remained in contraction.
What is the importance of the economic data?
The CoreLogic RP Data Hedonic Australian Home Value Index is based on Australia’s biggest property database. Unlike the ABS Index, which excludes terraces, semi-detached homes and apartments, the CoreLogic-RP Data Hedonic Index includes all properties. Home prices are an important driver of wealth and spending.
The Australian Industry Group and PricewaterhouseCoopers compile the  Performance of Manufacturing Index (PMI) each month. The Australian PMI is the Australian equivalent of the US ISM manufacturing gauge. The PMI is one of the timeliest economic indicators released in Australia. The PMI is useful not just in showing how the manufacturing sector is performing but in providing some sense about where it is heading. The key ‘forward looking’ components are orders and employment.
What are the implications for interest rates and investors?
Sydney and Melbourne drove the gains in home prices in 2015. But the two largest cities are likely to come back to the pack over 2016. Overall, we expect returns on home prices across Australia to lift by around 7 per cent in 2016. CommSec expects no change to rates over 2016.
Savanth Sebastian is an economist for <a href="https://www.commsec.com.au/" target="_blank">CommSec</a>
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jchancellor-FAypfDUnLy

Regional towns to get boost, as Hobart leads higher home prices: Savanth Sebastian

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EXPERT INSIGHT

Hobart and regional Victoria profit most, shows latest CoreLogic Pain and Gain report

CoreLogic’s Pain and Gain report for the September 2020 quarter released today has revealed Hobart retained its position as the capital city with the highest rate of profit making resales at 96.6%, while regional Victoria was the most profitable ‘rest of state’ region with 97.5% of dwellings sold for a profit in the three months to September.

Nationally, the proportion of resales that made a profit was 88.1% or $24.8 billion in profits, up from 87.2% or $19.8 billion in the June 2020 quarter. However, the amount of losses also deepened on non-profitable sales, from -$885 million in the June quarter to -$1.2 billion in September.

The Pain and Gain analysis for the September quarter reflects the resilience seen in the property market throughout 2020.

Each of the greater capital city markets, with the exception of Melbourne, saw an increase in the rate of profit making sales over the September quarter. The highest rate of profit making sales was across Hobart, which has been the case since March 2018.

Coastal regional markets were also particularly profitable for sellers, with profit making sales representing over 95% of resales across six major coastal markets: Geelong, Illawarra, the Mid North Coast, the Newcastle Lake Macquarie region, the Richmond Tweed region and the Sunshine Coast. The Sunshine Coast hit a record high rate of profit making sales in the September quarter at 96.4%.

Comparing the capital cities to regional Australia, the portion of profit-making sales increased more rapidly across the regions than capitals.

The combined regional Australian market saw the rate of profit making sales increase 150 basis points, to 89.2% in the September quarter, while the rate of profitability across capital city markets expanded 30 basis points, to 87.2%. This also reflects the divergent performance between regional and capital city real estate markets through 2020.

Houses vs Units

The report also demonstrates that there was generally a higher rate of return for houses ($225,000) than units ($125,000).

Profitability across both houses and units rose across Australia in the September 2020 quarter. The portion of properties sold at a loss among houses fell from 10.2% in the three months to June to 9.6%, while the portion of loss making unit sales fell from 21.4% to 19.6%.

The differential between house and unit profitability narrowed to 10 percentage points in the September quarter, down from 11.2 percentage points in the three months to June. The narrowed differential was a result of unit profitability rising faster than that of houses. Even though the rate of loss making sales declined faster across the unit segment, units were still about 2 times more likely to sell for a loss than houses in the September quarter.

Investors vs Owner Occupiers

A higher portion of property investors sold their dwelling at a loss during the September quarter compared with owner occupiers. Investor sales in the September quarter saw 17.1% of properties sell for a loss, compared with 10.4% of owner occupied sales.

Despite the higher rate of loss observed in investor sales in the quarter, the rate of properties re-sold at a loss was down from 18.0% in the June quarter, while the rate of loss making sales among owner occupiers was down from 11.1%.

The only region where there was a higher incidence of loss making sales among owner occupiers was across Hobart. This has been a consistent trend across the past few quarters. In the three months to September, 3.2% of owner occupied resales saw a nominal loss, compared with just 1% of investor sales.

The relatively low level of loss making sales among both cohorts reflects the exceptional capital growth across the Hobart market. CoreLogic home value indices show dwelling values across Hobart have seen annualised growth of 7.9% for the 5 years to December 2020, the highest annualised growth rate of the capital city markets.

Hold periods

Analysing returns by hold period suggests a greater amount of gain comes from more time in the market.

Over the September 2020 quarter, the median hold period of re-sale events across Australia was approximately 8.5 years. For profit making sales, the median hold period was 9 years, while loss making sales were typically held for 6.7 years. For houses and units, typical hold periods were longer across profit making resales.

The Australian housing market is expected to improve further in the coming months. With record low mortgage rates, a faster than expected economic recovery and relatively low cases of COVID-19, profitability is tipped to trend upwards over the coming quarters.

Eliza Owen is CoreLogic’s Head of Research Australia
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Regional Victoria and Hobart homes profited most in Q4 2020: CoreLogic's Eliza Owen

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Listings rose 3 percent in June, driven mainly by a 7 percent jump in Brisbane.
Higher listings in the month mirror recent softening auction trends, reported SQM Research. 
Over the year, listings are still 3.3 percent lower, with Melbourne (-12.7 percent) and Hobart (-14,8 percent) recording excessive declines. 
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/07/05/SQM1.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2017/07/05/SQM1.jpg" alt="">
Melbourne house prices have exploded 
The Hobart market is very tight, with a total of only 2912 listings, sending rents and house prices higher. 
With the other exception of Melbourne, listings are generally higher this year than last.
Listings in Brisbane jumped by 7 percent in June, as vendors struggle gamely to offload a glut of apartment stock.  
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/07/05/SQM2.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2017/07/05/SQM2.jpg" alt="">
Meanwhile SQM reported that median asking prices in Melbourne have exploded, rising by 22 percent over the year to June. 
Indeed, Melbourne asking prices for houses have increased by a massive 48 percent over the past three years, now comfortably outstripping growth in all other capital cities, including house prices in Sydney at 39 percent. 
 
PETE WARGENT is the co-founder of <a href="https://allenwargent.com/" target="_blank">AllenWargent</a> property buyers (London, Sydney) and a best-selling author and <a href="https://petewargent.blogspot.com/" target="_blank">blogger</a>.
His latest book is <a href="https://www.bigskypublishing.com.au/Books/General-Interest/Four-Green-Houses--and-a-Red-Hotel/1015/productview.aspx" target="_blank">Four Green Houses and a Red Hotel</a>.
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pwargent-M4siyDbqQY

Hobart property market tight

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Entrenched habits die hard and it’s difficult to shake people’s rigid views about certain locations.
This, despite everything that’s happened recently, applies to the hottest market in Australia right now, Hobart.
Hobart has been leading city Australia for some time on a number of parameters, including highest price growth, fastest-selling locations, lowest vacancy rates and highest rental yields, as well as having the lowest prices among the state and territory capitals.
Many remain unconvinced for a host of entrenched but out-of-date reasons: it’s not sustainable, the economy is weak, there’s no population growth, the city is too small, no one wants to live there, etc.
The reality is that much has changed. And it’s because of these fundamental changes that Hobart has a booming property market. It also provides clues as to which city will rise next.
Tasmania previously ranked as the weakest economy in the nation. It consistently ranked last or second last on most of the key parameters. But that’s old news. Tasmania’s economy has improved markedly and it now is entrenched in fourth ranking among the eight state and territory economies, according to CommSec.
Previously Tasmania generated little or no population growth, because of the once weak economy, but that has changed too. Now Tasmania is a net gainer from interstate migration and overseas migration – not with the big numbers of Victoria or Queensland, but now growing again.
Housing affordability is partly the cause. Hobart has been easily the cheapest of the capital cities for houses and apartments, but perhaps not for much longer. Such has been the strength of its price growth that it may soon overtake cities like Adelaide and Darwin in terms of its median house price.
According to one source, Hobart has been the price growth leader for 10 consecutive months. Its median prices now are around $450,000 for houses and $350,000 for units.
Price growth has been underpinned by that strong state economy and an increased level of spending on infrastructure, as well as growing numbers of buyers attracted by the relatively low prices.
Recent research suggested that Hobart is now the most unaffordable capital city for renters – that’s typical rents relative to typical local incomes (May Rental Affordability Index). This is bad news for local tenants but good news for investor owners.
Hobart rents have been rising because vacancies have been well under 1 percent for a long time – the lowest among the capital cities, challenged only by Canberra.
A recent survey found 40 Hobart suburbs with no rentals available at all, while another 31 suburbs had only three or fewer available for rent. It’s been suggested that local councils have been very slow to approve new dwellings, creating a shortage of rental supply.
So should you be rushing off to buy in Hobart? Not necessarily. Two years ago would have been a great time to buy there but there’s already been a lot of growth. There’s a case for building new dwellings there, if you have high levels of patience.
The smartest of investors will look at what’s happened in Hobart, understand why it’s risen and then ask the core question: where next?
Given that Hobart’s run has been driven by affordable prices, low vacancies, a strengthening economy and elevated infrastructure spending, I’d suggest the next place to look for uplift is Adelaide.
But, like Hobart, Adelaide is a hard sell. Many people have entrenched negative views about Adelaide, as they do about Hobart. And no level of change in circumstances will change the unshakeable views.
But I’m increasingly bullish about Adelaide, with its improving economy, strengthening confidence levels, growing status as the national capital for hi-tech innovation and alternative energy - and all that’s coming up in the construction pipeline, including those big contracts to building submarines and other vessels for the Navy.
Terry Ryder is the founder of hotspotting.com.au
<a href="https://mailto:ryder@hotspotting.com.au">ryder@hotspotting.com.au</a>
twitter.com/hotspotting
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terryryder-YECXbqmri2

Australia's hottest property market - and where's next?

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The Hobart housing market has been the nation’s weakest performing capital city housing market for more than a decade.
There are now signs that the Hobart (and Tasmania’s) housing market may be in line for a steady improvement.
<a href="/images/2016/04/27/Chart-1-2-580x208.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="/images/2016/04/27/Chart-1-2-580x208.jpg" alt="">
Over the 12 months to March 2016, home values in Hobart have increased by 4.8 percent while over the past two years values are only 4.5 percent higher highlighting that the value growth performance has been much stronger over the past year relative to the previous year.
The above chart shows the annual change in home values across all capital cities, with Hobart and the combined capital cities highlighted and the other cities in grey.  Although Hobart values have increased over the past year, the recent rise must be put in context, over the past decade home values in Hobart have increased at an annual rate of 1.5 percent with values falling at an annual rate of -0.7 percent over the past five years.  Hobart’s decade growth performance is well behind Perth which has recorded the second lowest annual rate of growth over the period at 3.1 percent.
<a href="/images/2016/04/27/Chart-2-2-580x207.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="/images/2016/04/27/Chart-2-2-580x207.jpg" alt="">
It is interesting to look at the performance of the Hobart housing market in context with the performance of the Melbourne market. The previous chart shows that in 2003 and 2004 home value growth in Hobart surged. The rate of growth reached a peak of 57.9 percent annual growth in November 2003 and very shortly thereafter the growth performance in Hobart stalled and has been limited ever since.
The surge in Hobart dwellings came following a surge in Melbourne home values and at a similar time to which the rate of growth in Melbourne values began to slow.  Ever since the end of the last surge in home values in Hobart, Melbourne has recorded strong rises in home values while growth in Hobart has been minimal.
Melbourne has obviously recently seen a large surge in home values meaning that many home owners have substantial levels of equity in their property. Investment in the Tasmanian housing market which offers much lower home values and superior yields may be looking attractive for those in Melbourne looking for a lifestyle investment.
<a href="/images/2016/04/27/Chart-3-2-580x207.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="/images/2016/04/27/Chart-3-2-580x207.jpg" alt="">
While value growth in Hobart is picking up, transaction volumes are relatively steady from where they were at the end of last year and virtually unchanged from a year ago.  In comparison, most other capital city housing markets are actually recording fewer property transactions than they were a year ago.
<a href="/images/2016/04/27/Chart-4-2-580x206.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="/images/2016/04/27/Chart-4-2-580x206.jpg" alt="">
Looking at the current market, listings provides one of the best guides about the balance between buyers and sellers.  As listings move lower, buyers have less choice and vendors can be less flexible on their price expectations which can push values higher.  Over the 28 days to 17 April 2016 there were 376 newly advertised properties added to the Hobart housing market and 2,189 total property listings. 
New listings are 1.3 percent higher than they were a year ago and fairly flat over recent weeks.  Meanwhile, total listings are -26.2 percent lower than they were a year ago and as the table shows they are trending lower.  In fact, the number of listings is at its lowest level since October 2010.  With new listings slightly higher than a year ago and total listing much lower it suggests that there is limited new supply coming to the market with increasing demand which is causing total listing volumes to trend much lower.
<a href="/images/2016/04/27/Chart-5-2-580x210.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="/images/2016/04/27/Chart-5-2-580x210.jpg" alt="">
One of the main drivers of the surge in Hobart home values in 2003 and 2004 was the positive migration trends for Tasmania.  The above table shows that in 2003 and early 2004 both net overseas and net interstate migration were positive.  The chart also shows that typically there is an outflow of residents of Tasmania to other states and territories while net overseas migration is usually positive.  Over the past few quarters, for the first time in a number of years, net interstate migration to Tasmania has been positive.  It is still early days but should this trend continue over the coming quarters it could be a positive for the Tasmania housing market.
<a href="/images/2016/04/27/Chart-6-1-580x208.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="/images/2016/04/27/Chart-6-1-580x208.jpg" alt="">
People will generally only move to a new region if they are reasonably comfortable that they can find employment.  The unemployment rate in Tasmania has ticked up over recent months and job creation has slowed which may act as a deterrent to make the move to a market like Hobart.  However, if we look at 2003 and 2004 when home values were surging and migration to Tasmania was quite strong, job creation was stronger although the unemployment rate was in the high 6% to low 7% range compared to a similar 6.9% currently.  Keep in mind that some people will move to Tasmania and Hobart as a lifestyle choice so they may be able to do their current job remotely or may commute back to the mainland a few days a week / each month.  Furthermore, a proportion of people that move interstate would be retirees and therefore their decision is not reliant upon securing employment.
<a href="/images/2016/04/27/Chart-7-1-580x213.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="/images/2016/04/27/Chart-7-1-580x213.jpg" alt="">
Tourism is likely to be a growing source of employment for those living in Tasmania.  According to data from Tourism Research Australia, international visitor numbers to Tasmania increased by 19.6 percent in 2015 and have increased by 53 percent over the past five years. Meanwhile, domestic overnight trips to Tasmania increased by 17.3 percent in 2015 and have increased by 40 percent over the past five years.  Should the ramp-up in tourism continue it will create even more employment opportunities in the local economy.
When you look at the housing and economic indicators for Hobart it looks like the market is well positioned to see an increase in the rate of housing demand and subsequently home values over the coming year.  Of course Hobart also has the advantage of being a substantially more affordable housing market than all of the other capital cities.  Any of these indicators could change and most importantly if job creation picked up pace and the unemployment rate fell it would provide further positives for the local market.  Nevertheless, it looks as if the fundamentals are in place for a long-awaited improvement in value growth for the Hobart housing market.
 Cameron Kusher is research analyst for CoreLogic RP Data. You can contact him <a href="https://blog.corelogic.com.au/about/">here</a>.
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ckusher-ujnxiKuFQs

Hobart's time to shine: Cameron Kusher

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The expiry of Tasmania's first home buyer incentives for purchasers of established dwellings in 2014 saw first home buyer demand decline, according to QBE’s latest housing report.
First home buyer demand in the state has since bottomed out and is now in a recovery phase, the report said.
Loans to first home buyers increased by an annual 6% in 2015/16 and the rising trend has been accelerating, with loans to first home buyers in June quarter 2016 being 24% higher than the same period a year earlier.
It is likely that some of this demand stems from increased interstate migration. In contrast, purchase activity by upgraders and downsizers has been easing, with loans to non–first home buyers having fallen by 4% in 2015/16.
Demand from investors has also been decreasing, with the total value of loans to investors having fallen by an annual 13% in 2015/16. As with the other states, tightened lending policy by the banks is containing investor demand, although the decline in 2015/16 has been lower than the national decline.
Rental growth has been largely flat and vacancy rates are close to balance at just under 3% through 2015/16.
House prices in Hobart were flat in 2014/15, but picked up in 2015/16, with the median house price increasing by 5.2%. Tasmania’s net interstate migration outflow has been steadily declining since peaking in 2011/12, and interstate migration is on track to record a net inflow in 2015/16.
Part of the driver of this recovery is likely to be increased “tree changers” downsizing from the more expensive mainland capitals, while there are also likely to be many returnees from the mining states who contributed to the higher net interstate migration outflows of recent years.
House price growth has been unevenly spread across the Local Government Areas of Hobart. Median house price growth has been particularly strong in Hobart (10.1%), Clarence (8.4%) and Kingborough (6.9%). Glenorchy (1.1%) and Brighton (2.8%) saw more moderate house price growth while Sorell (–3.3%) experienced a decline in its median house price. The overall Greater Hobart median grew 5.2% over 2015/16.
<a href="/images/2016/10/14/Table%2012.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<a href="/images/2016/10/14/Table%2012.jpg" target="_blank"><img src="/images/2016/10/14/Table%2012.jpg" alt=""></a>
The Tasmanian economy has been weak in recent years. A high Australian dollar and slow population growth have added to general economic weakness. However, improved household spending, non–residential building activity and improving exports suggest a stronger economic recovery.
The weakening Australian dollar should support growth in tourism while the agricultural and mining industries should also benefit. The state unemployment rate fell from 7.8% at March 2014 to 6.6% at March 2016. Greater Hobart has a lower unemployment rate than the rest of the state, having fallen from 6.7% to 6.1% over the same period.
Greater Hobart has also been the main destination for migrants from overseas, interstate and the rest of Tasmania, with its population rising by 0.8% in 2014/15 while the population of the rest of Tasmania was flat.
On the supply side, completions at the state level have continued to rise while underlying demand has been slow. This has seen Tasmania’s dwelling surplus climb from 4,800 dwellings to an estimated 5,300 dwellings at June 2016. Given the disparity between population growth, it is likely that the oversupply is greater in regional Tasmania.
Reflecting lower income levels and fewer drivers of employment, Hobart has the lowest median house price compared to the other state capitals. Its relative affordability compared to other capital cities is a significant driver of demand as interstate migrants seek a more affordable market.
The current low interest rate environment is expected to improve affordability and spur purchaser demand, the QBE report said. Poor affordability in Melbourne and Sydney is expected to fuel further migration to Tasmanian cities, a trend already evident with the net interstate inflow forecast to increase further to 1,000 persons in 2016/17 and 2017/18.
<a href="Click%20to%20open%20in%20new%20window">Click to open chart in new window</a>
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Overall, the gradual recovery in the local economy and interstate migration is expected to underpin price growth, while the presence of an excess dwelling stock at the state level will likely limit price growth to more moderate levels. Hobart’s median house price is forecast to rise from $377,900 at June 2016 to $425,000 by June 2019, reflecting growth of around 4% per annum or a cumulative 12.5%.
With a significantly smaller unit market, and thus a smaller sample of sales volumes to measure the median, movement in the median unit price in Hobart can be much more volatile from quarter to quarter. Overall, however, median unit prices have been in a gradual decline since its peak median price of $420,000 in June 2011.
With falling investor demand, the unit market could experience the greatest impact as investor purchasers have traditionally been more prevalent buying units.
This softness is expected to continue to dampen demand, limiting median unit price growth to a forecast 1%–2% per annum through to 2018/19. This is forecast by QBE to push the median unit price to $315,000 at June 2019; a cumulative growth of 4.5% over the forecast period.
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j.ballantyne1990-6AQqhLzZaK

Hobart first home buyers in recovery stage: QBE Housing Outlook

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<h3 class="post-title entry-title">Sydney and Canberra listings crept higher in the lead-up to the spring selling season, taking national listings a little north over the month of August from 316,748 to 318,825, according to SQM Research. </h3>
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Asking prices in Sydney nevertheless moved higher than a month earlier, both for houses and units. 
Nationally total listings are -4.3 per cent lower than a year ago, however, driven by excessive annual declines in the firing Melbourne and Hobart housing markets. 
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/09/07/newb.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
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Both monthly and annual listing numbers are also now in decline in Perth, suggesting that it's only a matter of time now before prices begin rising again in Western Australia, especially in light of the commodity markets rebound. 
Listings in Melbourne have now broadly fallen from ~50,000 to ~30,000 since 2012, with listings a massive -15.3 per cent lower year-on-year, suggesting that house prices will continue to surge in the Victorian capital. 
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/09/07/newB2.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2017/09/07/newB2.jpg" alt="">
In Hobart listings have plummeted some -20.2 per cent lower since August 2016, with now just 2,520 listings across the entire capital city market and a surfeit of willing buyers, both locally and from interstate.
House prices are recording gains of ~15 per cent per annum across Greater Hobart.
Simon Pressley, founder of Propertyology, notes that gains in inner metropolitan Hobart have been tracking at closer to ~20 per cent per annum.  
Supply sluggish
Hobart is a relatively small capital city of about 225,000 persons. 
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/09/07/newB3.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2017/09/07/newB3.jpg" alt="">
Normally, one would associate such a rapid run-up in demand and house prices with a decisive supply response.
Hobart is not a mainland city, however, and some larger developers may be a little more reluctant to get involved, due to logistics and cost.
To date the increase in dwelling approvals has been muted to say the least, suggesting that the Hobart price boom will likely continue well into 2018. 
SQM sees more first homebuyers entering the market in New South Wales and Victoria, drawn in by first homebuyer grants, but more stock likely to be hitting the market too.
GDP to be solid
In other news, the current account deficit widened in the second quarter to $9.6 billion on weaker commodity prices - albeit from a tremendously improved position - while net foreign debt declined for another quarter. 
Exports exceeded imports, however, and are expected add +0.3 percentage points to GDP growth when the national accounts are released today.
Furthermore there was a very strong +2.2 per cent increase in public demand, set to add another +0.5 percentage points to GDP. 
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/09/07/A1.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2017/09/07/A1.jpg" alt="">
Thus, despite the significant drag from inventories, Westpac now expects quarterly GDP growth to be around +1 per cent. 
And with a negative quarterly print to drop off in due course, GDP growth now seems likely to surge into the end of 2017.
One other interesting point of note for the phantom rate hike brigade to take note of, the Reserve Bank Governor noted in his dinner speech that the Board had considered the merits of lower rates still, but appears to have held off to allow the heat in the Sydney housing market to ease (which it now has). 
PETE WARGENT is the co-founder of <a href="https://allenwargent.com/" target="_blank">AllenWargent</a> property buyers (London, Sydney) and a best-selling author and <a href="https://petewargent.blogspot.com/" target="_blank">blogger</a>.
His latest book is <a href="https://www.bigskypublishing.com.au/Books/General-Interest/Four-Green-Houses--and-a-Red-Hotel/1015/productview.aspx" target="_blank">Four Green Houses and a Red Hotel</a>.
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