Million dollar sales take a dive over the financial year

EXPERT OBSERVER

Over the 2018-19 financial year the number of settled property sales fell substantially, down -17.2% from the previous year. Because of the significant difference in sales year-to-year when we are analysing the market performance, especially in terms of sales across price points, looking at the shifts in market share provides a much more accurate picture.

Over the 12 months to June 2019, 12.5% of all houses and 8.0% of units sold nationally transacted for at least $1 million. The share of million dollar house sales was down from 14.7% a year earlier and was also well down from its peak of 15.0% of all sales in March 2018. For units, the 8.0% share over the past year was lower than the 9.4% a year earlier. The fall in million dollar sales over the past year reflects the overall weaker housing market conditions and the fact that higher valued properties have typically recorded the greatest value falls.

Throughout the combined capital cities, 18.4% of all houses and 9.8% of all units sold over the 2018-19 financial year sold for at least $1 million. The share of million dollar house sales was down from 21.9% a year earlier as well as being below the peak of 22.3% of all sales in March 2018. The 9.8% of million dollar unit sales was down from 11.5% a year earlier and was the lowest share since October 2016.

Far fewer properties sell for at least $1 million in regional markets as opposed to capital cities. Over the 2018-19 financial year, 4.1% of all houses and 3.3% of all units sold in regional Australia transacted for at least $1 million. While the share of million dollar house sales was marginally lower over the year (down from 4.5%), the share of unit sales was marginally higher than the 3.2% a year earlier.

While a substantial volume of houses and units sold in Sydney are at least $1 million, the share has seen a steady fall over recent years as dwelling values have declined. Over the 2018-19 financial year, 30.2% of all house sales were at least $1 million which was down from 34.2% a year earlier and the smallest share since October 2014. For units, 18.9% of sales were at least a million dollars of the 2017-18 financial year compared to 16.4% over the latest financial year. The 16.4% of unit sales $1 million or greater was the smallest share since the 12 months to January 2016.

Like Sydney, Melbourne has recorded a slump in million dollar sales over the past year as values have continued to fall. Over the 2017-18 financial year, 29.0% of all house sales and 7.8% of all unit sales were at least $1 million. Over the past financial year, the share of million dollar sales had reduced to 23.1% for houses and 6.5% for units. The larger falls across higher value housing markets and tighter credit conditions have clearly limited transactions at prices above $1 million.

Over the 2018-19 financial year, 8.7% of all houses and 3.8% of all units sold in Brisbane transacted for at least $1 million. Brisbane values have fallen over the past year and as such there has been a slight fall in million dollar sales which were down from 8.8% and 4.0% respectively over the previous year. As the chart shows the fall in million dollar sales has been much more moderate than the decline in these sales across Sydney and Melbourne.

5.9% of all houses and 1.4% of all units sold over the 2018-19 financial year in Adelaide, transacted for at least $1 million. The share of house sales of at least $1 million is currently at an historic high and has increased from 5.2% a year ago. The 1.4% of units sold for at least $1 million is unchanged from 12 months ago but the share has fallen slightly over recent months.

Although the Perth housing market has seen a substantial decline in values since the middle of 2014, the share of million dollar sales has actually not fallen significantly. Over the 2018-19 financial year, 10.0% of all house sales and 4.1% of all unit sales were at least $1 million. The 10.0% of house sales was down from 10.6% a year earlier and the 4.1% of unit sales was up from 3.9% a year earlier.

Although dwelling values have continued to climb over the past year in Hobart, there has been weaker conditions at the top-end of the market resulting in the share of million dollar sales falling over recent months. Over the 12 months to June 2019, 3.9% of all houses sold in Hobart were at least $1 million which was higher than the 3.7% a year earlier but down from the recent peak of 4.1%. The share of units sold for at least $1 million has fallen from 3.0% at the end of the 2017-18 financial year to 2.4% at the end of the latest financial year.

The ongoing decline in Darwin dwelling values since 2014 has resulted in a much smaller share of house and unit sales occurring within the million dollar price point. At the end of the 2018-19 financial year, 2.4% of all house sales and 0.6% of all unit sales were at least $1 million. The share of million dollar house sales is down from 3.0% a year earlier and is at its lowest share since June 2013. The share of million dollar unit sales is unchanged over the year.

Although Canberra dwelling values continued to increase throughout the 2018-19 financial year, the share of million dollar sales has dropped over the year. The share of $1 million house sales has fallen from 12.3% a year ago to 11.5% over the current year. For units, the share of sales has fallen to 2.0% of all sales from 2.3% a year earlier.

Over recent months we have started to see some stabilizing of housing market conditions. The data also shows that the largest improvement is occurring across the most expensive properties. Assuming this continues over the remainder of the current financial year the share of million dollar sales, particularly in Sydney and Melbourne, may increase over the coming year.

CAMERON KUSHER is the head of research for the Australian branch of CoreLogic.