Price Correction

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EXPERT OBSERVER
Over the 2018-19 financial year the number of settled property sales fell substantially, down -17.2% from the previous year. Because of the significant difference in sales year-to-year when we are analysing the market performance, especially in terms of sales across price points, looking at the shifts in market share provides a much more accurate picture.
Over the 12 months to June 2019, 12.5% of all houses and 8.0% of units sold nationally transacted for at least $1 million. The share of million dollar house sales was down from 14.7% a year earlier and was also well down from its peak of 15.0% of all sales in March 2018. For units, the 8.0% share over the past year was lower than the 9.4% a year earlier. The fall in million dollar sales over the past year reflects the overall weaker housing market conditions and the fact that higher valued properties have typically recorded the greatest value falls.
<img class="align-center" src="https://www.corelogic.com.au/sites/default/files/inline-images/Annual%20Million%20%24%20Sales_National.PNG" alt="Annual Million $ Sales_National.PNG" width="576" height="186" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="29e13edb-5eec-47e0-97c6-b5b613674f3c" data-image-style="" data-responsive-image-style="wide" data-zoom-image-style="_as_uploaded" data-mfp-src="https://www.corelogic.com.au/sites/default/files/inline-images/Annual%20Million%20%24%20Sales_National.PNG">
 
Throughout the combined capital cities, 18.4% of all houses and 9.8% of all units sold over the 2018-19 financial year sold for at least $1 million. The share of million dollar house sales was down from 21.9% a year earlier as well as being below the peak of 22.3% of all sales in March 2018. The 9.8% of million dollar unit sales was down from 11.5% a year earlier and was the lowest share since October 2016.
<img class="align-center" src="https://www.corelogic.com.au/sites/default/files/inline-images/Annual%20Million%20%24%20Sales_Combined%20Capital%20Cities.PNG" alt="Annual Million $ Sales_Combined Capital Cities.PNG" width="577" height="185" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="c9e71fd5-5fad-4eeb-8176-907a038dc747" data-image-style="" data-responsive-image-style="wide" data-zoom-image-style="_as_uploaded" data-mfp-src="https://www.corelogic.com.au/sites/default/files/inline-images/Annual%20Million%20%24%20Sales_Combined%20Capital%20Cities.PNG">
 
Far fewer properties sell for at least $1 million in regional markets as opposed to capital cities. Over the 2018-19 financial year, 4.1% of all houses and 3.3% of all units sold in regional Australia transacted for at least $1 million. While the share of million dollar house sales was marginally lower over the year (down from 4.5%), the share of unit sales was marginally higher than the 3.2% a year earlier.
<img class="align-center" src="https://www.corelogic.com.au/sites/default/files/inline-images/Annual%20Million%20%24%20Sales_Combined%20Regional%20Markets.PNG" alt="Annual Million $ Sales_Combined Regional Markets.PNG" width="573" height="187" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="020089ea-48e7-4cf0-8947-e13a8ef1bdb7" data-image-style="" data-responsive-image-style="wide" data-zoom-image-style="_as_uploaded" data-mfp-src="https://www.corelogic.com.au/sites/default/files/inline-images/Annual%20Million%20%24%20Sales_Combined%20Regional%20Markets.PNG">
 
While a substantial volume of houses and units sold in Sydney are at least $1 million, the share has seen a steady fall over recent years as dwelling values have declined. Over the 2018-19 financial year, 30.2% of all house sales were at least $1 million which was down from 34.2% a year earlier and the smallest share since October 2014. For units, 18.9% of sales were at least a million dollars of the 2017-18 financial year compared to 16.4% over the latest financial year. The 16.4% of unit sales $1 million or greater was the smallest share since the 12 months to January 2016.
<img class="align-center" src="https://www.corelogic.com.au/sites/default/files/inline-images/Annual%20Million%20%24%20Sales_Sydney.PNG" alt="Annual Million $ Sales_Sydney.PNG" width="600" height="190" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="fde8b0f5-7cc3-45b1-ba38-6765cc33f8ea" data-image-style="" data-responsive-image-style="wide" data-zoom-image-style="_as_uploaded" data-mfp-src="https://www.corelogic.com.au/sites/default/files/inline-images/Annual%20Million%20%24%20Sales_Sydney.PNG">
 
Like Sydney, Melbourne has recorded a slump in million dollar sales over the past year as values have continued to fall. Over the 2017-18 financial year, 29.0% of all house sales and 7.8% of all unit sales were at least $1 million. Over the past financial year, the share of million dollar sales had reduced to 23.1% for houses and 6.5% for units. The larger falls across higher value housing markets and tighter credit conditions have clearly limited transactions at prices above $1 million.
<img class="align-center" src="https://www.corelogic.com.au/sites/default/files/inline-images/Annual%20Million%20%24%20Sales_Melbourne.PNG" alt="Annual Million $ Sales_Melbourne.PNG" width="598" height="188" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="9fc21a83-94ff-4cdf-9ef7-0c1fd7b939d1" data-image-style="" data-responsive-image-style="wide" data-zoom-image-style="_as_uploaded" data-mfp-src="https://www.corelogic.com.au/sites/default/files/inline-images/Annual%20Million%20%24%20Sales_Melbourne.PNG">
 
Over the 2018-19 financial year, 8.7% of all houses and 3.8% of all units sold in Brisbane transacted for at least $1 million. Brisbane values have fallen over the past year and as such there has been a slight fall in million dollar sales which were down from 8.8% and 4.0% respectively over the previous year. As the chart shows the fall in million dollar sales has been much more moderate than the decline in these sales across Sydney and Melbourne.
<img class="align-center" src="https://www.corelogic.com.au/sites/default/files/inline-images/Annual%20Million%20%24%20Sales_Brisbane.PNG" alt="Annual Million $ Sales_Brisbane.PNG" width="601" height="183" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="e765ec35-4e8c-453b-8599-bf579c566407" data-image-style="" data-responsive-image-style="wide" data-zoom-image-style="_as_uploaded" data-mfp-src="https://www.corelogic.com.au/sites/default/files/inline-images/Annual%20Million%20%24%20Sales_Brisbane.PNG">
 
5.9% of all houses and 1.4% of all units sold over the 2018-19 financial year in Adelaide, transacted for at least $1 million. The share of house sales of at least $1 million is currently at an historic high and has increased from 5.2% a year ago. The 1.4% of units sold for at least $1 million is unchanged from 12 months ago but the share has fallen slightly over recent months.
<img class="align-center" src="https://www.corelogic.com.au/sites/default/files/inline-images/Annual%20Million%20%24%20Sales_Adelaide.PNG" alt="Annual Million $ Sales_Adelaide.PNG" width="597" height="187" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="1818e06a-8eab-4a01-8e62-fe96f9f74b65" data-image-style="" data-responsive-image-style="wide" data-zoom-image-style="_as_uploaded" data-mfp-src="https://www.corelogic.com.au/sites/default/files/inline-images/Annual%20Million%20%24%20Sales_Adelaide.PNG">
 
Although the Perth housing market has seen a substantial decline in values since the middle of 2014, the share of million dollar sales has actually not fallen significantly. Over the 2018-19 financial year, 10.0% of all house sales and 4.1% of all unit sales were at least $1 million. The 10.0% of house sales was down from 10.6% a year earlier and the 4.1% of unit sales was up from 3.9% a year earlier.
<img class="align-center" src="https://www.corelogic.com.au/sites/default/files/inline-images/Annual%20Million%20%24%20Sales_Perth.PNG" alt="Annual Million $ Sales_Perth.PNG" width="609" height="187" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="897bcaf0-f09a-491f-80c9-91226731ab27" data-image-style="" data-responsive-image-style="wide" data-zoom-image-style="_as_uploaded" data-mfp-src="https://www.corelogic.com.au/sites/default/files/inline-images/Annual%20Million%20%24%20Sales_Perth.PNG">
 
Although dwelling values have continued to climb over the past year in Hobart, there has been weaker conditions at the top-end of the market resulting in the share of million dollar sales falling over recent months. Over the 12 months to June 2019, 3.9% of all houses sold in Hobart were at least $1 million which was higher than the 3.7% a year earlier but down from the recent peak of 4.1%. The share of units sold for at least $1 million has fallen from 3.0% at the end of the 2017-18 financial year to 2.4% at the end of the latest financial year.
<img class="align-center" src="https://www.corelogic.com.au/sites/default/files/inline-images/Annual%20Million%20%24%20Sales_Hobart.PNG" alt="Annual Million $ Sales_Hobart.PNG" width="622" height="205" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="2e707c02-72bc-4493-b895-00f421ef7aa0" data-image-style="" data-responsive-image-style="wide" data-zoom-image-style="_as_uploaded" data-mfp-src="https://www.corelogic.com.au/sites/default/files/inline-images/Annual%20Million%20%24%20Sales_Hobart.PNG">
 
The ongoing decline in Darwin dwelling values since 2014 has resulted in a much smaller share of house and unit sales occurring within the million dollar price point. At the end of the 2018-19 financial year, 2.4% of all house sales and 0.6% of all unit sales were at least $1 million. The share of million dollar house sales is down from 3.0% a year earlier and is at its lowest share since June 2013. The share of million dollar unit sales is unchanged over the year.
<img class="align-center" src="https://www.corelogic.com.au/sites/default/files/inline-images/Annual%20Million%20%24%20Sales_Darwin.PNG" alt="Annual Million $ Sales_Darwin.PNG" width="583" height="181" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="f5e8f398-e452-40de-9d22-88e067f09e7b" data-image-style="" data-responsive-image-style="wide" data-zoom-image-style="_as_uploaded" data-mfp-src="https://www.corelogic.com.au/sites/default/files/inline-images/Annual%20Million%20%24%20Sales_Darwin.PNG">
 
Although Canberra dwelling values continued to increase throughout the 2018-19 financial year, the share of million dollar sales has dropped over the year. The share of $1 million house sales has fallen from 12.3% a year ago to 11.5% over the current year. For units, the share of sales has fallen to 2.0% of all sales from 2.3% a year earlier.
<img class="align-center" src="https://www.corelogic.com.au/sites/default/files/inline-images/Annual%20Million%20%24%20Sales_Canberra.PNG" alt="Annual Million $ Sales_Canberra.PNG" width="601" height="194" data-entity-type="file" data-entity-uuid="1cab45de-0f45-42a4-85f4-2d0e371ea2a6" data-image-style="" data-responsive-image-style="wide" data-zoom-image-style="_as_uploaded" data-mfp-src="https://www.corelogic.com.au/sites/default/files/inline-images/Annual%20Million%20%24%20Sales_Canberra.PNG">
 
Over recent months we have started to see some stabilizing of housing market conditions. The data also shows that the largest improvement is occurring across the most expensive properties. Assuming this continues over the remainder of the current financial year the share of million dollar sales, particularly in Sydney and Melbourne, may increase over the coming year.
CAMERON KUSHER is the head of research for the Australian branch of CoreLogic.
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ckusher-ujnxiKuFQs

Million dollar sales take a dive over the financial year

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The national housing market is forecast to trough in the third quarter of 2019, according to Moody's Analytics Second-Quarter 2019 Housing Forecast Report.
A gradual recovery in values has been predicted following the end of the downturn.
The May CoreLogic Hedonic Home Value Index results show the national housing market continuing its correction, led by Sydney and Melbourne.
House values across the country have declined almost 11% from their peak in mid-2017.
Moody's Analytics expect Sydney's housing market to lead the way in the recovery in 2020.
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2019/6/24/Moodys%20Housing%20Correction%20Forecast.jpg" alt="">
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"The correction in Sydney is forecast to have largely passed by 2020, but home value growth will be far from the lofty gains of recent years," Moody's noted.
"Housing values are forecast to rise modestly in 2020, with an average increase of 3.1% forecast for houses and 4% for apartments."
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Moody's have predicted a 7.8% national housing value decline in 2019, with prices to recover in 2020, rising 2.2%. They see a 4.7% increase across the country in 2021. 
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"Support for the improvement is coming from the RBA cutting the cash rate, alongside expected improvement in credit availability from APRA proposing to ease serviceability requirements," Moody's said.
"A gradual improvement will be the path going forward, with softer macroeconomic conditions at home, including expectations of wage growth remaining subdued working to dampen a stronger recovery."
Moody's forecast improvement in Melbourne's housing market too in 2020, with the inner east and north east leading the recovery.
The housing market around the Brisbane area is likely to see either flat or mildly positive returns in the coming years.
There will be areas with a correction in 2019 according to Moody's with a particular weakness in South Brisbane.
Perth is expected to be hit hard over 2019, with house values likely to decline nearly seven percent. Moody's believe there will be a small recovery in 2020 as the local economy improves thanks to population growth.
Adelaide’s housing market will continue its stable run, with house values forecast to rise 0.4% in 2019 after a 1.9% gain in 2018.
Moody's suggest Hobart's booming housing market bull run is likely at the end. House values are forecast to rise 2.8% in 2019, followed by modest corrections in 2020 and 2021. 
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jrobinson-rf4aSBido9

Sydney to lead house price recovery in 2020: Moody's Analytics

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National capital city residential property prices fell a further 2.4 percent in the December quarter 2018, according to figures released by the ABS.
It follows a 1.5% national decline in the September quarter 2018, taking prices down 5.1% over the year.
The December quarter decline was driven by Sydney more so than Melbourne.
Melbourne's 2.4% loss was consistent with its losses in the September quarter (2.4%), however Sydney's decline increased sharply, jumping to 3.7% in the December quarter from 1.5% in the September quarter.
Sydney's total annual decline now stands at 7.8%, followed by Melbourne's 6.4% losses and then some way back to Darwin where prices are 3.5% down.
Click <a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2019/3/19/ABS-Dec.jpg" target="_blank">here to enlarge</a> the December quarter statistics.
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2019/3/19/ABS-Dec.jpg" alt="">
Bruce Hockman, chief economist for the ABS, said Australia’s two largest cities continue to lead the fall in property prices.
"These falls follow a period of solid growth, where prices in Sydney rose 68 per cent and Melbourne rose 54 per cent, over the five years to December quarter 2017," Hockman said. "While property prices are falling in most capital cities, a tightening in credit supply and reduced demand from investors and owner occupiers have had a more pronounced effect on the larger property markets of Sydney and Melbourne."
Hobart continued its strong property market, with gains of 0.7 percent over the December quarter.
 
 
 
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National property prices decline a further 2.4% in December quarter: ABS

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The RBA held the cash rate firm at 1.5 percent at the March meeting, making it 28 consecutive meetings since the rates last moved.
There is growing expectation from economists, and pressure from housing markets, for the RBA to cut rates.
In February Westpac's Bill Evans was the first to <a href="/expert-insights/finance/westpac-now-expects-the-rba-to-cut-the-cash-rate-twice-bill-evans">forecast two rate cuts</a>, one in August and one in November.
He was joined earlier this month by <a href="/news/nab-now-predicting-two-cash-rate-cuts-in-2019-alan-oster">NAB's Alan Oster,</a> who said cuts may come sooner, in July, and November.
The RBA March chart pack has given the central bank little relief from the expected looming rate cut by commentators.
The RBA's biggest concern will be to growing gap between the declining house prices and housing debt.
The pair have continued to go in opposite directions, and as far as the RBA is concerned, the wrong direction, for well over a year.
Household continues to hit record highs month after month, with no sign of debt, nor the house price decline, slowing down.
Click here to enlarge.
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2019/3/19/RBA0.jpg" alt="">
With house prices declining, home owners are cautious.
They're not wanting to spend money on unnecessary items until house prices have stopped declining.
Growth in consumption has been slow, but it is somewhat holding firm, unlike a households disposable income.
The average household's disposable income is declining toward levels not seen since half way through 2016.
Click here to enlarge.
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2019/3/19/RBA1.jpg" alt="">
Home loan approvals are continuing to decline across the board.
When house prices started declining and investors were hit with higher home loan rates, first home buyers were back in the driving seat.
But due to the continued declines, first home buyers are in no hurry to enter the market just yet.
Back in late 2018 Finder's RBA survey suggested tightened lending could <a href="/expert-insights/finance/tightening-lending-practices-could-negatively-effect-economy-finders-rba-survey">affect the economy negatively</a>.
However in February the RBA stressed that the tightening of lending <a href="/news/tightening-in-lending-standards-not-the-cause-of-housing-credit-growth-decline-rba">was not the cause</a> for the house price falls.
Click here to enlarge.
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2019/3/19/RBA3.jpg" alt="">
To see the full chart pack <a href="https://www.rba.gov.au/chart-pack/" target="_blank">click here</a>.
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Little relief in housing finance could trigger rate cuts: RBA March chart pack

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September marked the 12th month of the national dwelling value decline, according to CoreLogic's national hedonic home value index.
Values dropped 0.5 percent over the month, with values tracking lower across five of the eight capital cities.
Five of the seven 'rest of state' regions recorded a fall in values over the month.
Since the national index peaked 12 months ago, dwelling values have fallen by 2.7 percent.
Click here <a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2018/10/2/Index-Sept.jpg" target="_blank">to enlarge.</a>
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2018/10/2/Index-Sept.jpg" alt="">
Melbourne's dwelling values dropped the most out of any capital city. They dropped 0.9 percent, which in turn has made the Victorian capital the worst performer over the quarter.
Sydney's decline continued with a 0.6 percent decline over September, the same as Perth. It is now 6.1 percent down over the year.
Tim Lawless, head of research at CoreLogic, called Sydney and Melbourne the 'primary drag.
Click here <a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2018/10/2/annual-change.jpg" target="_blank">to enlarge.</a>
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2018/10/2/annual-change.jpg" alt="">
“While the housing market downturn is well entrenched across Darwin and Perth where dwelling values remain 22.1% and 13.2% lower relative to their 2014 peak, Sydney and Melbourne are now the primary drag on the national housing market performance," Lawless said.
“We’ve seen Sydney dwelling values drop 6.1% over the past twelve months and Melbourne values are 3.4% lower. Not only are these amongst the largest annual falls across the capital cities, but considering Sydney and Melbourne comprise approximately 60% of the national value of housing, the weak conditions in these cities have a substantial drag down effect on the overall national housing market performance.”
The current rate of decline is slower relative to the previous housing market downturn (Jun 2010 to Feb 2012) when national dwelling values fell by three percent over the first twelve months, declining 6.5 percent from peak to trough.
 
 
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Melbourne values suffer as national price correction now year long: CoreLogic

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EXPERT OBSERVATION
Australia's housing market continues to correct. The CoreLogic home value index, covering the eight major capital cities, dipped 0.3% in June marking the ninth successive monthly decline. Prices nationally are down 1.6%yr and 2.2% from the peak in Sep last year.
The correction remains both relatively shallow and narrowly-based, concentrated in the previously strong Sydney and Melbourne markets. These two markets have now seen no net gain in prices since late 2016 and mid-2017 respectively. The Perth market is also seeing a price correction although this has been ongoing for the best part of five years.
For the June month, unit prices showed a slightly milder fall than houses (–0.2% vs –0.3%) although annual growth for units remains positive and is significantly outperforming price growth for houses (+0.4%yr vs –2.2%yr for houses).
Click here <a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2018/7/3/value-index.jpg" target="_blank">to enlarge.</a>
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2018/7/3/value-index.jpg" alt="">
Perth recorded the biggest price decline in the June month, down –0.5%mth, –2.1%yr with the city's unit market showing a renewed price contraction. Perth unit prices are back at their 2006 levels and have not kept pace with inflation since mid-2003.
Amongst the major eastern capitals, Melbourne was again a touch weaker, prices falling –0.4%mth vs –0.3%mth in Sydney, although prices are still up a touch (+1%mth) on a year ago compared to a 4.5% decline in Sydney. Brisbane and Adelaide continue to see a steadier performance with prices ticking up slightly in the month and up 1.1%yr. The detail suggests the Brisbane unit market is on a firmer footing.
Price performances continue to vary widely across the smaller capitals, Hobart's boom possibly cooling a touch but still showing double digit annual growth (+12.7%yr), Canberra subdued (+2.3%yr) and Darwin showing few signs of pulling out of its steep correction (–7.7%yr). Performances in regional areas have also varied but have been slightly better overall (Aus ex capital city prices flat in the month but up +2.2%yr).
All tiers recorded price slippage in the June month although declines remains larger for the 'top 25%' of properties by value down –0.5%mth, –3.8%yr compared to the 'middle 50% down –0.2%mth, +0.8%yr and the 'bottom 25%' down –0.1%mth, +1.3%yr.
Auction clearance rates weakened notably through May-June, suggesting an additional drag from tightening loan criteria and longer approval processing times. Buyer sentiment has lifted off last year's lows but the change in credit conditions looks to have overshadowed any positives from the marginal improvement in affordability. Any stabilisation still looks to be a long way off.
Matthew Hassan is senior economist with <a href="https://www.westpac.com.au/" target="_blank">Westpac</a>.
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Correction continues in Australian dwelling prices: Matthew Hassan

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The Reserve Bank of Australia governor Philip Lowe has suggested the current decline in property prices was "manageable,."
Australia had gone through "plenty of periods" in the last two decades where house prices have declined.
"That's what happens in the housing market – we have these big run-ups, prices stabilise, sometimes they might fall, stabilise and then they'll rise again.
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<div class="cq-article-content-media section"> "We are going through one of those events at the moment, particularly in Sydney and Melbourne."</div>
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<div class="related-quotes section">The governor's outlook for property came in questions after delivering a speech yesterday.</div>
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“We are watching it carefully,” Dr Lowe told an Australian Industry Group lunch in Melbourne yesterday.
“At the moment it is manageable,” he added. “We had many, many years where we had credit growth rising faster than incomes.”
Dr Lowe said the Australian housing market was unlikely to face the same fate as the US housing market during the global ­financial crisis.
“Lending standards have been tightened quite a lot in the last four or five years,” Dr Lowe said.
“There has not been large extension of credit to people who shouldn’t have got it. It’s a very ­different situation in Australia (compared to the US). I don’t think it’s a fair comparison.
"We shouldn’t fret just because house prices aren’t rising at the same rate they used to.
“Houses in Sydney and Melbourne are still up 40 per cent compared to where they were at the start of 2014. You’ve got to have a longer term perspective.”
"As long as it's not a very large decline – it's manageable," Dr Lowe said.
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Dr Lowe said Australians shouldn't necessarily expect house prices to continue rising at the rate they did recently, or worry if they come down "for a period".
"I think this is manageable. Remember, it wasn't that long ago that people were worrying about housing affordability. That was the number one political issue two years ago – house prices were rising too quickly."
"There's a lot of media coverage of house prices going down but I think you've got to have a longer term perspective."
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j.ballantyne1990-6AQqhLzZaK

Don't fret: RBA governor says property price falls were likely "manageable"

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Morgan Stanley, which does not expect cash rates to rise until next year, forecasts growth in the residential property market are at the worst position in three decades.
Analysis by the investment bank Morgan Stanley says credits, regulatory, economic and supply issues are combining to weaken demand after six years of growth and booming prices in major cities.
It warns weakness in price as tightening credit supply pushes economic indicators into negative territory.
"Risks are skewed to the downside," the report concludes.
Analysis conducted by the bank indicates house prices could fall by as much as 6% in annual terms.
<img src="https://edge.alluremedia.com.au/uploads/businessinsider/2018/04/UBS-housing-1.jpg" alt="">
"Conditions for housing for the remainder of 2018 continue to look challenging with further regulatory tightening of credit, an increasing stock of properties to be settled, and continued uncertainty on government policy for housing as the election looms."
Morgan Stanley said its indicators covering credit supply, expectations, housing accessibility, mortgage serviceability, rental conditions and demand/supply impact were at 30-year lows.
"Higher compliance with responsible lending guidelines including serviceability and limit assessment will mean lower capacity," the report states.
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Morgan Stanley warns of weakness in property prices

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Sydney house prices stand a good chance of posting growth in 2018, property research group SQM Research managing director Louis Christopher anticipates.
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Christopher told the firm's annual conference in Sydney he was sticking to his forecast of a 4 percent to 8 per cent rise for Sydney and 7 percent to 12 per cent growth for Melbourne.
"APRA will loosen the market again because they are under instruction not to crash the market," Christopher said, according to The Australian Financial Review.
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<div>"We think APRA will lift the credit growth limit limit, if that does occur, we think it will stimulate the investor market."</div>
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<div>"What the banks are doing is they have been lowering interest rates for property investment...the gap between owner-occupier and investor loans has now narrowed."</div>
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<div>SQM suggest in a worse case scenario - should investors not return - Sydney's house prices would fall only by about 1 per cent, buoyed by steady population growth.</div>
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"I think the reality would be that the first quarter will be line-balled whether prices in Sydney and Melbourne have fallen or not.
"If they fall, it won't be more than 1 per cent," Mr Christopher said.
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<div>"It's very hard to be bearish when you see strong population growth and low unemployment, unless we see a major credit default occur."</div>
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Melbourne has a greater chance of a more severe downturn than Sydney, if a large correction happens.
"In absolute dollars, Melbourne is cheaper than Sydney, but compared to incomes Melbourne is more expensive and more susceptible to a downturn," Mr Christopher said.
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