Labor's negative gearing plan to trigger price fall: SQM
A report by SQM Research on Labor's negative gearing policy states dwelling prices will fall and sales turnover and stamp duty revenue will dip should the changes be legislated.
House prices could fall as much as 15 per cent during the four years it will take for the market to absorb the Labor Party's planned negative gearing changes in the worst-case scenario.
The average decline was suggested as around 4 per cent, according to SQM.
Renters would be shielded for the next few years from higher monthly rents, SQM Research managing director Louis Christopher said.
The report, titled Labor's Negative Gearing Policy - A Market Viewpoint' suggested average acquisition yields will rise up to 5.5 percent.
SQM Research managing director Louis Christopher said there will be a market impact if Labor’s negative gearing policy is legislated, and given the forecast of initial negligible rental growth suggests a correction in the housing market of -3 percent to +1 percent in FY2018, -8 percent to -3 percent in FY2019 and -4 percent to -2 percent in FY2020.
"The positive end of the range takes into account a response rate cut of 50 basis points by the RBA. The negative end of the range assumes no rate cuts in response," he said.
"The total adjustment in the housing market is forecasted to last between two to four years with most of the adjustment phase occurring within three years. Thereafter the market would likely potentially return back to equilibrium, having ‘priced-in’ the loss of the tax concession.
"Our analysis suggests the market impact would last by around three years with sales falling significantly in year one and a correction to take affect with dwelling prices falling the most in the second year. We think there would be a possible response to this event with the RBA cutting rates, thereby mitigating some of the potential price falls. We don’t think the market will crash per say, but it will be felt by the economy. We then expect the market to return to equilibrium from year three.
"We strongly encourage Labor to consider some of the investor issues, particularly surrounding the distortion their policy may create on pricing of off-the-plan developments and the likely losses investors in those properties would face come resale time to those who won’t have the tax concession.
"While we take the view that negative gearing reform is a good thing, such reform should be done as part of a wider property tax reform that should include a broad based land tax and the elimination of stamp duties. Such reform should have a phase in period of up to three years. Doing so would reduce the risks of a significant downturn which would likely have wider ramifications on the economy.”
