House Values

This time has come for apartments to reign over houses.

It feels like for the last decade, houses have been the ones growing exponentially (that&#39;s because they have) - while apartments, while still seeing solid growth, have been playing second fiddle.

The latest data however out of property data house CoreLogic shows apartment values rose faster than houses in more than half of a pool of suburbs across the country in the past three months, as stretched affordability and lower borrowing capacity forced buyers to opt for high-density homes.

Rising rents are also expected to lure more investors to the unit market and help fuel further price gains this year.

Of the 899 suburbs analysed, units outperformed houses across 489 markets in the last three months.

Compared to a 12 month analysis, only 180 of the same 899 suburbs saw apartments outperform houses.&nbsp;

&quot;This suggests it is a more recent phenomenon where unit values would out-perform houses,&quot; CoreLogic advised.

&quot;It is also in line with the nature of downturns historically, where houses tend to have more volatility, and deeper declines than what we may see in the unit segment.&quot;

Across the capital cities, growth rates have generally been stronger in unit markets further from the CBD.

Sydney&#39;s Newtown was one of 20 Greater Sydney suburbs which saw the unit market outstrip houses. Among others were Darlinghurst, Darlington and Zetland near the CBD, and Caringbah South and Woolooware in the Sutherland Shire area.

In Woolooware, unit values&nbsp;are two and a half times cheaper than houses. Units rose&nbsp;4.9 per cent over the last three months to a median $1.036 million, while the 2.5 per cent house price declines took the median house price to $2.7&nbsp;million.

Sydney-wide, the median house price is now 70 per cent more expensive than units.&nbsp;

Melbourne&#39;s Kensington saw the biggest difference in the house and unit market, with units rising 7.2 per cent and houses remaining flat.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=28968 project_image_fid=195528]

Port Melbourne and Balaclava also saw big swings in favour of the unit market.

Melbourne&#39;s&nbsp;houses are 59 per cent more expensive than units -&nbsp;a drop from 61 per cent earlier this year, while the ACT showed a slight drop with&nbsp;house prices 73 per cent higher compared to units -&nbsp;down one per cent from last year.&nbsp;

Looking ahead, the increased overseas migration, and the relative affordability of units compared to houses, as well as the recent upswing in new investor financing seen in February and March, will likely help insulate the apartment sector.

<h2>The biggest differences in Sydney markets</h2>

<h2><a href="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/pictures/article-images/syd.png"><img alt="" height="614" src="https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/pictures/article-images/syd.png" width="1558" /></a></h2>

<h2>The biggest differences in Melbourne&nbsp;markets</h2>

<a href="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/pictures/article-images/screen_shot_2022-05-25_at_11.10.17_am.png"><img alt="" height="616" src="https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/pictures/article-images/screen_shot_2022-05-25_at_11.10.17_am.png" width="1556" /></a>

<h2>The biggest differences in Brisbane markets</h2>

<h2><a href="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/pictures/article-images/screen_shot_2022-05-25_at_11.12.36_am.png"><img alt="" height="616" src="https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/pictures/article-images/screen_shot_2022-05-25_at_11.12.36_am.png" width="1556" /></a></h2>

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Of the 899 suburbs analysed, units outperformed houses across 489 markets in the last three months

Joel Robinson

The suburbs where apartments are outperforming houses

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Half of Australia's capital cities posted a fall during the September quarter, according to CoreLogic RP Data's Hedonic Home Value Index.
CoreLogic RP Data head of research Tim Lawless said the flat growth rate in Sydney comes after dwelling values increased by 16.7% over the past twelve months and are 49.6% higher over the growth cycle to date.
"The most substantial capital gains over the quarter were achieved in Melbourne where dwelling values were up by 7.4%, followed by Sydney (+4.6%), Brisbane (+1.9%) and Darwin where values were up by 0.4%," he said.
"During the September quarter, half of Australia’s capital cities posted a decline in dwelling values with Hobart down 2.0% over the three months. Adelaide values slipped by 1.6%, Perth by 0.7%, and Canberra values were down 0.4%. 
“While half of Australia’s capital cities have seen values rise over the past quarter and year, the other half did not fare as well,” Mr Lawless said. 
<a href="/images/2015/10/01/Screen%20Shot%202015-10-01%20at%202.53.49%20PM.png" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
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Half of capital cities post September fall: CoreLogic RP Data

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How are these for solid property investment fundamentals: detached houses cost well under the national average price of $475,000 ~ rental yields of 6% plus ~ population growth rate in line with the national average ~ controlled rates of new housing supply ~ average household income well above the national average ~ average age lower than the national average. How many locations can you think of with better credentials?
For the fifteen year period ending December 2014, the average annual change in median house values in this location was 6.5% and, when combined with median yields of 6.4%, the total return gives this location a ranking which puts it amongst Australia’s Top 40% (209th out of 550 local government jurisdictions). In fact, the historical performance of this property market since the year 2000 was on par with Sunshine Coast and Ballarat, better than the highly desirable South Perth, equal to or better than twenty-nine of Melbourne’s thirty-one LGAs, and better than all of Sydney’s forty-three LGAs. 
Keen to know where this location is?
The main industries supporting the economy of this location are tourism, agriculture, and the defence force. The outlook for these economies at this juncture in the Asian Century, where an unprecedented rise in the number of people about to enter the middle class beckons, is super exciting. It’s little wonder that the Australian federal government and lots of wealthy foreign investors are actively pursuing funding options for new infrastructure investment in the region. 
With current rents all but covering the holding costs on an investment property in this location, just imagine the potential for future capital growth. 
<a href="/images/2015/11/26/900_KatherineNT_PropertyMarket_1999-2014.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
 <img src="/images/2015/11/26/900_KatherineNT_PropertyMarket_1999-2014.jpg" alt="">
If this hasn’t got the motivated property investor licking their lips I don’t know what will!
World champion athletes Cadel Evans and Leisel Jones were born in this location is probably insufficient information for people to correctly guess the name of this location. Ok, I’ll cease with the suspense. The location that I have described is the Northern Territory regional town of Katherine!
Now, I bet your investment appetite has suddenly dissipated. 
I have just created a real-life set of circumstances to illustrate that too few property investors have an ability to understand and remain focused on the important fundamentals that count most when selecting a location to invest in. The fundamentals described above are real; they are impressive. And if, when I revealed the name of this location, it was a suburb within a capital city I suspect this report would be promptly shared with so many family and friends that it would accelerate within Google’s search engine faster than one could say ‘hotspot’.
Instead of making decisions on investment fundamentals, almost all property investors will immediately be drawn to a map and their personal feelings upon receipt of the name of a location. Often without even realising it, the heart immediately over-rules the head and we begin to ask ourselves questions like ‘would we live there?’ Whether we personally would live in Katherine, Kingston or Kogarah is as subjective as selecting T-bone, trout, or tofu from the restaurant menu.
Located 320 kilometres (a 3 hour drive) south east of Darwin, Katherine is positioned along the nationally significant freight link connecting Darwin to Adelaide. In addition to the national highway, a railway line connects also runs past Katherine. 
Katherine is the Northern Territory’s fifth most populous local government authority (after Darwin, Palmerston, Alice Springs, and Litchfield). 
Katherine has developed in to the primary service centre for a total regional population of 24,000 and an area almost the size of Victoria. Essential social infrastructure is well established, including modern retail facilities, hospital, schooling, sports grounds, parks and gardens as well as several Commonwealth and Territory Government services.
The main industries supporting Katherine’s economy are agriculture, tourism, defence, government (primary industries), and mining.  
RAAF Base Tindal, located adjacent to Katherine civilian airport, is significant for Australia’s air combat defence and fast jet base. The RAAF personnel and families contribute approximately 2,200 people to Katherine’s population and this is expected to increase with the potential of the Delamere Bombing Range and the Bradshaw Range.
The region is adventure territory, offering unique attractions such as Kakadu and Nitmiluk national parks, Katherine Gorge, ancient (indigenous) rock paintings, caves, fishing and camping experiences. Katherine is exceptionally popular for the ‘grey nomads’ (the fast growing number of baby boomers who enjoy long and affordable holidays while taking in the unique sights that Australia offers). 
With approximately 300,000 visitors per year, the retail facilities of Katherine are more than adequate. 
Plentiful water supply and vast open planes makes this prime agricultural land. The environment consists of a warm, tropical climate, spectacular gorges and rainforests, and heavy monsoonal rains in summer. Flash flooding from the Katherine River can occur although it is quite sheltered from the potentially destructive cyclonic winds.
This is one of Australia’s biggest beef cattle regions. Vegetables, mangoes, hay and other field crops are also grown. The NT Department of Primary Industries employs approximately 40 people in Katherine in predominantly research-related roles. With the rapid rise of Asia’s middle class and the resultant huge demand for agricultural products (especially proteins), the Top End is attracting increasing interest from the federal government and foreign investors for investment in primary infrastructure such as irrigation, roads, and rail.
Once a prime gold mining region, the main mined commodities today are lead, zinc, limestone and gravel. 
Several primary schools, a 600-student public high school, an expanding Catholic college, and Charles Darwin university campus cater for the educational needs while the Katherine District Hospital services the health needs of the region
Katherine has already outperformed most high profile property markets over the last fifteen years. Current fundamentals would suggest that the potential for the next fifteen years is better again. Property investors who are unable to challenge the status quo and focus on fundamentals, not the name, are only short-changing themselves.
<a href="/images/2015/11/26/700_darwin.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="/images/2015/11/26/700_darwin.jpg" alt="">
 
SIMON PRESSLEY IS MANAGING DIRECTOR OF <a href="https://www.propertyology.com.au/" target="_blank">PROPERTYOLOGY</a>, AN REIA HALL OF FAME INDUCTEE, PROPERTY MARKET ANALYST, ACCREDITED PROPERTY INVESTMENT ADVISER, AND BUYER’S AGENT. PROPERTYOLOGY WORKS EXCLUSIVELY WITH PROPERTY INVESTORS TO PURCHASE PROPERTIES IN STRATEGICALLY CHOSEN LOCATIONS ALL OVER AUSTRALIA.
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Focus on the property investment fundamentals, not the name: Simon Pressley

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The pace of home value growth across Brisbane has been improving, with dwelling values rising by 4.1 percent over the past twelve months.
The latest NAB housing insights report noted due to the higher pace of growth recorded in Sydney and Melbourne since 2009, Brisbane home values have become comparatively very affordable with the typical Brisbane house now showing a median value that is approximately $441,000 lower than Sydney’s and $144,000 lower than Melbourne’s. 
<a href="/images/2016/03/10/Screen%20Shot%202016-03-10%20at%201.50.44%20PM.png" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="/images/2016/03/10/Screen%20Shot%202016-03-10%20at%201.50.44%20PM.png" alt="">
The slower conditions compared with the larger states of New South Wales and Victoria can likely be attributed to softer economic conditions as the mining sector winds down. More recently though we have seen consistent improvements in the services sector of the Queensland economy, with rising tourism numbers and retail spending providing support for coastal and lifestyle based housing markets as well as the Brisbane housing market. 
The regional areas of the state have shown a weakening in the rate of home value growth, dragged lower by value falls in the region’s most heavily dependent on mining related activities. Values in Mackay were 8.6 percent lower over last year, while Fitzroy values had fallen 3.7 percent and values across the Central West region were down 6.2 percent. Conversely, key lifestyle oriented markets such as the Gold Coast and Sunshine Coast are seeing home values trending higher.
<a href="/images/2016/03/10/Screen%20Shot%202016-03-10%20at%201.48.47%20PM.png" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="/images/2016/03/10/Screen%20Shot%202016-03-10%20at%201.48.47%20PM.png" alt="">
 
The Brisbane housing market has been somewhat undersupplied in previous years’, yet housing price performance has lagged notably behind that of Sydney and Melbourne. Consequently, the comparative affordability makes the Brisbane market an enticing alternative for foreign investors, while pent up demand will keep local buyers in the market. An improving outlook for the Queensland economy will be another factor supporting prices as low interest rates and AUD depreciation help to jump start non-mining segments of the economy, feeding into better labour market outcomes. 
However, population growth is expected to continue slowing in Queensland, while the unemployment rate is likely to remain above 6% over the near-to-medium-term, which will limit gains in property prices. Also, similar to Sydney and Melbourne, residential construction is picking up rapidly in Brisbane, which should address some of the pent-up demand and cool the market. 
<a href="/images/2016/03/10/Screen%20Shot%202016-03-10%20at%201.52.25%20PM.png" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="/images/2016/03/10/Screen%20Shot%202016-03-10%20at%201.52.25%20PM.png" alt="">
Similar to what was seen across all three of the major eastern markets, the NAB Property Survey showed a sharp deterioration in market sentiment in Queensland for Q4 2015, although forward expectations suggests the weakness may be only temporary. Nevertheless, respondents downgraded their house price expectations significantly, as well as their rental expectations – in contrast to NSW and Vic where rental expectations rose. 
NAB expects house price growth in Brisbane to outperform other capital cities, but to slow to 3 percent in 2016 (from 4.3 percent in 2015).
On a more positive note, foreign buyers are responding as expected to the relative affordability (and availability) of Brisbane property, with demand apparently picking up in the quarter according to the Survey. Overall, NAB expects house price growth in Brisbane to outperform other capital cities, but to slow to 3 percent in 2016 (from 4.3 percent in 2015).
However, there are a number of risks stemming from the uncertainty around foreign demand and the impending spike in housing supply. These risks are particularly prevalent in the unit/apartment market, where prices are already expected to fall 0.6 percent in 2016 (from 1.8 percent in 2015).
 
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Brisbane house values to increase by 3 percent, units to fall by 0.6 percent: NAB

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NSW’s Coffs Harbour has reached the peak of the market cycle, while Melbourne is approaching its peak, according to valuation firm Herron Todd White’s latest property clock for houses, which also discusses gentrification.
The HTW clock for March is a simple broad brush means to suggest where property markets are and what direction prices are moving in.
<a href="/images/2016/03/10/Screen%20Shot%202016-03-10%20at%2010.02.45%20AM.png" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="/images/2016/03/10/Screen%20Shot%202016-03-10%20at%2010.02.45%20AM.png" alt="">
Coffs Harbour joins Dubbo, Newcastle and Central Coast at the top of the property cycle for houses, making it a clean sweep for NSW at the top.
Canberra, and the twin cities of Albury and Wodonga have entered a rising phase, while Sydney remains as a market starting to decline, joined by Horsham and South West Western Australia, shows the clock.
The Coffs Coast is made up of several small coastal and rural communities and has not yet experienced significant gentrification. 
There are several well established and sought after localities which continue to experience redevelopment or modernisation of old to new, however, these have not been gentrified, more they have always been prime locations. 
In Coffs Harbour, localities of this type that have experienced new development include Sawtell and the Jetty/ Harbour precinct and the northern beaches localities of Moonee Beach, Sapphire Beach and Emerald Beach. 
Valla Beach to the south and the popular rural township of Bellingen are also areas to which people tend to be attracted. The township of Woolgoolga (25 kilometres north of Coffs Harbour) is also experiencing new development within the central location close to the CBD and beach. Several older style cottages along the headland and central town positions are being purchased and redeveloped for more upmarket housing or higher density development. 
This is also coupled with increasing commercial activity seeing further development of the cafe and restaurant scene attracting increased popularity as a holiday destination and permanent address. 
There is one locality where the future for gentrification would appear to be the brightest - Park Beach (about five kilometres from Coffs Harbour’s CBD). This area was established in the 1970s with modest low-rise holiday and unit accommodation buildings and several single residential homes scattered throughout. Along the esplanade (Ocean Parade), higher density development has taken place with medium rise unit buildings, the landmark tavern known as the Hoey Moey and Park Beach Caravan Park making this area a popular tourist location. 
The locality has suffered from a history of negative social features and while these have been largely addressed, a stigma remains which has reduced broader market appeal. The advantage of this locality is the beachside position with major shopping facilities such as Park Beach Shopping and Home Base centres located nearby. This area is divided into two sections by a distributor road known as Hogbin Drive to the east and west. 
Although the whole locality has seen considerable new development in the past two years, predominantly through the construction of new townhouse complexes, the major development of new high-rise buildings to the east of Hogbin Drive has seen the area lift in stature. 
The area is predominantly made up of unit complexes with limited single residential dwellings available. The entry point in the area for a modest two-bedroom unit is around $150,000 to $180,000 with average prices ranging from $200,000 to $250,000. 
New three-bedroom townhouse units (west of Hogbin Drive) sell for $360,000 to $390,000, while modern units east of Hogbin Drive are priced between $420,000 to $460,000. The new high-rise buildings start at around $400,000 on the lower levels and up to $1 million plus for penthouse units. 
Among the capital cities, the ACT property market has undergone significant gentrification over the past five years with the emergence of Braddon’s Lonsdale Street precinct and the Kingston Foreshore as two of the most sought after residential locations, say HTW.
In Melbourne, the growing popularity of Footscray is being driven by revitalisation of local amenities, an increase in shops and restaurants, local council initiatives, affordability of property and significant volume residential developments.
The current median house price for the December 2015 quarter was $765,000, a slight decrease from $780,000 in September 2015 and the median unit price was $366,667 which has remained steady since September 2015. 
Among the other movers is Gladstone, which is approaching the bottom of the market, while the rural region of Gippsland in Victoria is shown as rising.
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Coffs Harbour joins 3 NSW cities at the peak: March HTW house property clock 

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Capital city dwelling values are yet to show declines, according to CoreLogic RP Data's Hedonic Home Value Index, March 2016.
Perth and Darwin are the only cities to record negative value movements over the past year, according to CoreLogic RP Data head of research Tim Lawless, who said over the past twelve months, house values rose by 6.6 per cent compared with a 4.7 per cent increase in unit values
"Declines (Perth and Darwin) from their recent peak which was more than twelve months ago have been modest at just 4.6 percent. 
"Sydney and Melbourne growth rates are moderating after a strong cycle of growth, while other cities are recording minimal shifts higher and lower."
<a href="/images/2016/04/01/corelogic_houses.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="/images/2016/04/01/corelogic_houses.jpg" alt="">
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Capital city dwelling values yet to show declines: CoreLogic RP Data

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Homes in the Sydney suburbs of Hunters Hill, Canada Bay and Ku-ring-gai are the top council areas with the most valuable real estate assets, according to a new report by Aussie Home Loans and CoreLogic RP Data.
The report found homes in Hunters Hill have an average equity level of 72.3 percent or $878,481, then Canada Bay at 70.2 percent and Ku-ring-gai with 69.2 percent.
Mortgaged homes across NSW have an average of 56.6 percent equity or $358,763.
Aussie executive chairman John Symond said the data confirms that NSW property has been a great wealth creator for owners, compared with other asset classes and property in other states across Australia.
“I believe the best investment both for security and lifestyle is still real estate and I see no reason why this will change over the next decade, especially in view of the lower interest rate climate, lack of housing supply and continuing population growth”, said.
"Fast growing Sydney council areas dominate the survey as property prices have risen at a compounding rate of 8.3 per cent over the last 20 years. 
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<img src="/images/2016/03/10/Screen%20Shot%202016-03-10%20at%204.47.59%20PM.png" alt="">
Councils in the Upper Hunter Valley had the lowest average home equity within New South Wales, especially Muswellbrook and Singleton.
CoreLogic RP Data research director Tim Lawless said Sydney is leading the state in home values as the population grows in the city, while many regional centres are facing neutral or falling population levels.
“The figures show that areas close to Sydney’s CBD have generally performed better as the population becomes more compressed with more medium to high density dwellings”, he said.
Average level of home equity – state by state percentages and dollar values
<a href="/images/2016/03/10/Screen%20Shot%202016-03-10%20at%204.45.19%20PM.png" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="/images/2016/03/10/Screen%20Shot%202016-03-10%20at%204.45.19%20PM.png" alt="">
Download the free <a href="https://www.aussie.com.au/home-loans/property-reports/home-equity" target="_blank">Aussie/CoreLogic Housing Equity Report here</a> or visit aussie.com.au. 
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Sydney's Hunter's Hill, Canada Bay lead councils with most valuable real estate

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A report by SQM Research on Labor's negative gearing policy states dwelling prices will fall and sales turnover and stamp duty revenue will dip should the changes be legislated.
House prices could fall as much as 15 per cent during the four years it will take for the market to absorb the Labor Party's planned negative gearing changes in the worst-case scenario.
The average decline was suggested as around 4 per cent, according to SQM.
Renters would be shielded for the next few years from higher monthly rents, SQM Research managing director Louis Christopher said.
The report, titled Labor's Negative Gearing Policy - A Market Viewpoint' suggested average acquisition yields will rise up to 5.5 percent.
SQM Research managing director Louis Christopher said there will be a market impact if Labor’s negative gearing policy is legislated, and given the forecast of initial negligible rental growth suggests a correction in the housing market of -3 percent to +1 percent in FY2018, -8 percent to -3 percent in FY2019 and -4 percent to -2 percent in FY2020.
"The positive end of the range takes into account a response rate cut of 50 basis points by the RBA. The negative end of the range assumes no rate cuts in response," he said.
"The total adjustment in the housing market is forecasted to last between two to four years with most of the adjustment phase occurring within three years. Thereafter the market would likely potentially return back to equilibrium, having ‘priced-in’ the loss of the tax concession.
"Our analysis suggests the market impact would last by around three years with sales falling significantly in year one and a correction to take affect with dwelling prices falling the most in the second year. We think there would be a possible response to this event with the RBA cutting rates, thereby mitigating some of the potential price falls. We don’t think the market will crash per say, but it will be felt by the economy. We then expect the market to return to equilibrium from year three.
"We strongly encourage Labor to consider some of the investor issues, particularly surrounding the distortion their policy may create on pricing of off-the-plan developments and the likely losses investors in those properties would face come resale time to those who won’t have the tax concession.
"While we take the view that negative gearing reform is a good thing, such reform should be done as part of a wider property tax reform that should include a broad based land tax and the elimination of stamp duties. Such reform should have a phase in period of up to three years. Doing so would reduce the risks of a significant downturn which would likely have wider ramifications on the economy.”
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Labor's negative gearing plan to trigger price fall: SQM

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Houses in Newcastle, the NSW Central Coast and Coffs Harbour are now at the peak of the market according to Herron Todd White's houses property clock for November.
The clock puts houses in the Gold Coast, South East NSW, and the Sunshine Coast as approaching peak of the market.
Houses in Bundaberg, Townsville, Emerald and South West WA sit at the bottom.
<a href="/images/2016/11/07/Screen%20Shot%202016-11-07%20at%2010.32.18%20AM.png" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="/images/2016/11/07/Screen%20Shot%202016-11-07%20at%2010.32.18%20AM.png" alt="">
 
Industrial property in Brisbane and Melbourne was approaching the peak of market place in Herron Todd White's <a href="/expert-insights/investing/59565-melbourne-and-brisbane-industrial-markets-approaching-the-peak-htw-clock" target="_blank">October 2016 industrial property clock</a>.
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Houses in Newcastle, Coffs Harbour and NSW Central Coast at peak, Gold Coast nearing top: HTW property clock

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The Brisbane property market chugs along, largely under the radar in the national headlines, although NSW purchasers are increasingly attracted by its cheaper prices.
CoreLogic has taken a look at the relationship between housing market growth in the two cities to determine whether the emerging slowdown in Sydney could translate into an acceleration in home buying in Brisbane.
The gap between median home values sits at a price differential of 85% - Sydney's $909,000 median versus $490,000.
The three decade average premium of Sydney dwellings over Brisbane prices has been 55% indicating that the current gap remains attractively above the long-term average.
Over the past 20 years the average gap has been 56% and at 41% during the past decade.
Such a price gap has made Queensland a popular migration destination for people choosing to leave New South Wales.
This has been the case especially following past Sydney surges.
The average quarterly number of persons migrating from New South Wales to Queensland sits at around 12,000 persons per quarter.  
The peak migration to Queensland at around 18,000 per quarter took place in 1989, and again 2002.
The wide gap in the cost of housing between the two cities was evident in both 1989 and 2002, CoreLogic researcher Cameron Kusher noted.
At its 1988 peak, Sydney dwelling values were 104% higher than Brisbane and in 2001, 107% higher than Brisbane.
Kusher concluded the past trends suggest that Brisbane could be well positioned for a pick-up in value growth as the Sydney housing market slows from its current peak.  
But he says there have been instances where value gap surge hasn’t been followed by a price surge in Brisbane.
So a lift in Brisbane activity and prices is no certainty, Kusher concluded, adding that although interstate migration out of NSW is increasing, it is yet to hit anything close to those two previous highs.
He also noted that people leaving NSW for Queensland won't necessarily settle for Brisbane as much as they have in the past.
Both the Gold and Sunshine Coasts are much bigger cities in their own right than they were in 1989 and 2002.
Ignoring the troubled Brisbane apartment market, Hotspotting website founder Terry Ryder recently advised the Brisbane house market was generally buoyant with some suburban precincts even recording double-digit annual growth for which Sydney has been renown for in recent years.
Ryder nominated the leading precinct as the Moreton Bay Region in Brisbane’s far north, where affordability, infrastructure and proximity to jobs nodes are key factors.
The Redcliffe Peninsula, which is part of the Moreton Bay Region LGA, had received particular impetus from the completion of the Moreton Bay Rail Link, a long-awaited piece of transport infrastructure.
Logan City, the mirror image of Moreton Bay in the south of the Greater Brisbane Area, had been a market leader in the past two years, though had perhaps faded a little of late.
Ipswich City, the south-western precinct with similar qualities to Logan City, had many suburbs now delivering good price growth.
This article first appeared in the Daily Telegraph.
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