RBA holding interest rates till at least 2020: Macquarie Securities
The Reserve Bank of Australia won't lift rates until 2020, according to Macquarie Securities.
At least not while there is "a small but growing risk" that the central bank will be unable to tighten policy in this cycle, Macquarie says.
Ric Deverell and Justin Fabo joined many other economists of the opinion that it's going to take more time until the RBA begin's lifting rates from their current historic low of 1.5 per cent.
"The economy is gradually improving, supported by above-trend global growth," the economists wrote in a note to clients. "It's just not improving fast enough."
Falling property prices and uncertainty around the outlook for housing construction activity and credit growth "also give the RBA reason to sit pat".
A much faster than anticipated drop in unemployment and a lift in the terms of trade increase the chance of a rate rise coming earlier than expected, the economists wrote.
But equally, "the chances of a later rate hike, or no rate hike, would rise if China's deleveraging or domestic housing market developments become disorderly, or if by 2020 the US economy slows much faster than we expect".
Macquarie's change of view comes as a result of expectations that "ample spare capacity in the economy will linger", and "continue being a key factor keeping a lid on wages growth".
Achieving average CPI inflation approaching 2.5 per cent "is highly unlikely" without average annual wages growing at a pace of 3-3.5 per cent, the economists estimate.
"It appears likely that it won't be until 2020 that Australia's unemployment rate will firmly have a '4' in front of it," they stated.
This "persistent spare capacity will continue being a key factor keeping a lid on wages growth".
