Great Australian dream once again within first home buyer reach: QBE suggest
Staff reporterOctober 24, 2018
House prices across Australia are tipped to grow in the next three years, with the exception of Sydney and Melbourne where they will continue falling in 2019, according to QBE’s Australian Housing Outlook 2018-2021.
It reveals that over the next three years house prices are set to rise in Adelaide by 12.4 per cent, in Brisbane by 11.3 per cent, Canberra by 10.4 per cent, Hobart by 7.9 per cent, Darwin by 6 per cent and Perth 5 per cent after several years of stagnant conditions.
Providing a 12-month window for first home buyers to pursue the Great Australian Dream, the primary drivers for a strengthening property market in these capital cities are affordability, increased demand and improving economic conditions.
The report has been quickly labelled "delusional reading."
QBE Lenders’ Mortgage Insurance (LMI) CEO, Phil White, said the surge in first home owner lending proved the Great Australian Dream of home ownership was alive.
“We haven’t seen the first home buyer market this strong since the Australian Government’s 2008 stimulus plan following the Global Financial Crisis, which saw $1.5 billion allocated to first home buyers,” Mr White said.
“The increases in the volume of first home buyers has been supported by improvements in affordability and first home buyer incentives.
“Record low interest rates in recent years had seen a surge in investor lending, but this year’s report shows investor lending scaling back, which should also provide further room for first home buyers over the next couple of years.
“Lenders’ responses to regulatory restrictions have contributed to the softening of the market. State government incentives have encouraged first home buyers to enter the market after several years of being pushed out by domestic and foreign investors.”
Adelaide is forecast to see the strongest growth of any capital city in the country, continuing its steady growth trajectory, but outpacing all other capital cities over the next three years.
The outlook is less rosy for apartment owners, with unit prices set to fall in Brisbane by 5.1 per cent, Darwin by 4.5 per cent, Sydney by 3.1 per cent and Melbourne by 2.1 per cent.
This is due to weaker demand from investors and an increase in supply of apartments.
“We anticipate foreign investment will further dampen in coming years owing to a number of factors such as increased approval fees, stamp duty and land tax surcharges, as well as tighter capital controls from foreign governments, most notably China, which have impacted how much money they can take out of their country,” Mr White said.
Over the next three years, the overall housing market will be supported by strong population growth, with net overseas migration forecast to remain high in the long-term, averaging 220,000 per annum over three years to 2020-2021, significantly higher than the prior 20-year average of 183,000 per annum.
This growth will underpin demand for new dwellings and help meet the high level of new supply coming online in some markets.
State-by-state highlights of the QBE Housing Outlook 2018-2021
Sydney
- Sydney’s house prices are expected to fall in the beginning forecast period and end up 1.2% lower to be at $1,090,000.
- The unit market is expected to fall even further for Sydney with a forecast drop of 3.1% to 2021 to reach $745,000.
- Affordability and first home buyer incentives are expected to continue to underpin first home buyer activity
- After seeing the strongest price growth in the 12 months prior, Sydney’s inner and middle ring suburbs have seen the largest fall in prices over 2017/18 (falling by 8.1% and 10.6% respectively).
- Outer Sydney saw a more moderate decline of 2.8% over the same period, which was likely supported by its relative affordability appealing to first home buyers.
- Housing market prices to fall in Melbourne, with house prices expected to drop by 2.5% to $835,000 by June 2021. By means of comparison, Sydney house prices are expected to fall by 1.2% to June 2021.
- Unit prices are also expected to decline 2.1% to $545,000 in Melbourne.
- Continued population growth is expected to absorb some of the excess supply of units.
Brisbane
- House price growth will continue and be 11.3% higher to $615,000 by June 2021. This is more growth than Canberra (10.4%), Hobart (7.9%), Darwin (6.0%) and Perth (5.0%). Only Adelaide (12.4%) is expected to outperform Brisbane house prices.
- Oversupply of units will continue to put downward pressure on rents and prices of units to decline by 5.1% to $405,000. This is the greatest expected decline of all capital cities.
- Greater competition for tenants of inner-city apartments is forecast to cause investors to lower rents to try to draw tenants from houses and more affordable city fringe locations.
Perth
- Overall, the Perth market is expected to be at or near the bottom with houses and units expected to experience some growth in price to June 2021. House price growth in Perth will beat Sydney and Melbourne but underperform compared to Adelaide, Brisbane, Canberra, Hobart and Darwin.
- Dwelling surplus in Perth looks set to remain in place for some time.
- The forecast median house price of $550,000 at June 2021 will represent cumulative growth of 5% over the next three years, with unit price forecast to rise 3.7% to $405,000.
Adelaide
- Adelaide is expected to record similar house price growth as the last three years and is forecast to grow by 12.4 per cent over the next three years, the highest of any Australian capital city.
- Median unit prices are projected to rise by a slightly lower 6.3 per cent, making Adelaide the second strongest unit market after Hobart’s 9.3 per cent.
- These positive forecasts can be attributed to Adelaide’s ongoing market affordability, coupled with low interest rates, despite South Australia’s generally depressed conditions.
Canberra
- Growth in house prices forecast with median house price to increase 10.4% to reach $745,000. This is more than growth forecast for Sydney, Melbourne, Hobart, Darwin and Perth.
- Unit price is forecast to reach $465,000, a cumulative rise of 5.9% to 2021.
- Conditions in the house market in Canberra are expected to remain largely positive, driven by population growth, an undersupply of houses and strong employment prospects.
Hobart
- Hobart’s median house price forecast to rise to $520,000, reflecting growth of 7.9% to 2021.
- Median unit price in Hobart forecast to reach $420,000 at June 2021; a cumulative rise of 9.3%.
- An undersupply of housing and better affordability relative to other capital cities is expected to continue to influence the property market
- While all other states across the country saw declines in the value of investment loans, Tasmania’s strong capital gains in recent years meant it was the only state to see increased investor lending, of 9.7 per cent.
Darwin
- This trend is expected to recover with house prices forecast to grow 6.0 per cent over the next three years.
- Unit prices are expected to fall 4.5 per cent over the same period.
State-by-state house price forecasts
State by-state unit price forecasts
