Housing Price

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<h3 class="post-title entry-title"><a href="https://petewargent.blogspot.com.au/2015/09/house-prices-rise-in-august"></a></h3>
<div>The Reserve Bank released its latest Chart Packs to 27 August, which showed that on a national basis house price growth has steepened.</div>
<h3 class="post-title entry-title"><a href="https://petewargent.blogspot.com.au/2015/09/house-prices-rise-in-august"></a></h3>
<div>This data is now presented on a log scale, which is just as well since Sydney prices were heading up almost vertically when presented on a linear scale.</div>
<h3 class="post-title entry-title"><a href="https://petewargent.blogspot.com.au/2015/09/house-prices-rise-in-august"></a></h3>
<div>Brisbane is finally now joining Sydney and Melbourne by shaping in an upwards trajectory.</div>
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<p><img src="/images/2015/09/04/6bl-houspri-small.gif" alt=""></p>
<p><em>CoreLogic-RP Data</em><span> also </span>released<span> its price indices for August 2015 over the last week.</span></p>
<div>Over the past quarter house prices have soared in Sydney (+7.4 per cent), Melbourne (+8.0 per cent) and Brisbane (+2.2 per cent).</div>
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<div>On the other hand, on a quarterly basis house prices declined in Adelaide, Perth, Canberra and Darwin.<br><br>Regional house prices in aggregate also declined over the past quarter.</div>
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<div>On Twitter, Cameron Kusher of the same company updated his chart of home values since December 2008, which underscores the importance of capital growth to investors.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>While it was possible for investors to find a positive cash flow in Hobart back in 2008, since that time home values have been stone dead flat in the Tasmanian capital, while Sydney prices have burned up by 76.4 per cent.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Brisbane appears most likely to be the next to go over just 9 per cent growth in home values since 2008.</div>
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<div>Click to enlarge</div>
<div><img src="/images/2015/09/04/RPD1.png" alt=""></div>
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<div><span>Looking at the split between house and unit price growth we can see that Sydney unit values exploded 9.2 per cent higher over the last 3 months (this had been evident for quite some time at auctions, and the index probably lags) as affordability constraints related to detached houses bites.</span></div>
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<p><span><em>PETE WARGENT is the co-founder of <a href="https://allenwargent.com/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">AllenWargent</a> property buyers (London, Sydney) and a best-selling author and <a href="https://petewargent.blogspot.com/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">blogger</a>.</em><br></span></p>
<p><em>His latest book is <a href="https://www.bigskypublishing.com.au/Books/General-Interest/Four-Green-Houses--and-a-Red-Hotel/1015/productview.aspx" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">Four Green Houses and a Red Hotel</a>.</em></p>
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pwargent-M4siyDbqQY

House prices rise in August: Pete Wargent

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<div>House prices across Australia are tipped to grow in the next three years, with the exception of Sydney and Melbourne where they will continue falling in 2019, according to QBE’s Australian Housing Outlook 2018-2021.</div>
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<div>It reveals that over the next three years house prices are set to rise in Adelaide by 12.4 per cent, in Brisbane by 11.3 per cent, Canberra by 10.4 per cent, Hobart by 7.9 per cent, Darwin by 6 per cent and Perth 5 per cent after several years of stagnant conditions. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>Providing a 12-month window for first home buyers to pursue the Great Australian Dream, the primary drivers for a strengthening property market in these capital cities are affordability, increased demand and improving economic conditions. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>The report has been quickly labelled "<span>delusional reading."</span>
</div>
<div> </div>
<div>QBE Lenders’ Mortgage Insurance (LMI) CEO, Phil White, said the surge in first home owner lending proved the Great Australian Dream of home ownership was alive.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>“We haven’t seen the first home buyer market this strong since the Australian Government’s 2008 stimulus plan following the Global Financial Crisis, which saw $1.5 billion allocated to first home buyers,” Mr White said. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>“The increases in the volume of first home buyers has been supported by improvements in affordability and first home buyer incentives. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>“Record low interest rates in recent years had seen a surge in investor lending, but this year’s report shows investor lending scaling back, which should also provide further room for first home buyers over the next couple of years.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>“Lenders’ responses to regulatory restrictions have contributed to the softening of the market.  State government incentives have encouraged first home buyers to enter the market after several years of being pushed out by domestic and foreign investors.”</div>
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<div>Adelaide is forecast to see the strongest growth of any capital city in the country, continuing its steady growth trajectory, but outpacing all other capital cities over the next three years.</div>
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<div>The outlook is less rosy for apartment owners, with unit prices set to fall in Brisbane by 5.1 per cent, Darwin by 4.5 per cent, Sydney by 3.1 per cent and Melbourne by 2.1 per cent. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>This is due to weaker demand from investors and an increase in supply of apartments. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>“We anticipate foreign investment will further dampen in coming years owing to a number of factors such as increased approval fees, stamp duty and land tax surcharges, as well as tighter capital controls from foreign governments, most notably China, which have impacted how much money they can take out of their country,” Mr White said.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Over the next three years, the overall housing market will be supported by strong population growth, with net overseas migration forecast to remain high in the long-term, averaging 220,000 per annum over three years to 2020-2021, significantly higher than the prior 20-year average of 183,000 per annum. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>This growth will underpin demand for new dwellings and help meet the high level of new supply coming online in some markets. </div>
<div> </div>
<div><a href="https://www.qbe.com.au/lmi/news/reports/housing-outlook"> </a></div>
<div><span class="qbe-sub-heading">State-by-state highlights of the QBE Housing Outlook 2018-2021</span></div>
<p><span class="qbe-section-heading">Sydney</span></p>
<ul>
<li>Sydney’s house prices are expected to fall in the beginning forecast period and end up 1.2% lower to be at $1,090,000. </li>
<li>The unit market is expected to fall even further for Sydney with a forecast drop of 3.1% to 2021 to reach $745,000. </li>
<li>Affordability and first home buyer incentives are expected to continue to underpin first home buyer activity</li>
<li>After seeing the strongest price growth in the 12 months prior, Sydney’s inner and middle ring suburbs have seen the largest fall in prices over 2017/18 (falling by 8.1% and 10.6% respectively).</li>
<li>Outer Sydney saw a more moderate decline of 2.8% over the same period, which was likely supported by its relative affordability appealing to first home buyers.</li>
</ul>
<p><span class="qbe-section-heading">Melbourne</span></p>
<ul>
<li>Housing market prices to fall in Melbourne, with house prices expected to drop by 2.5% to $835,000 by June 2021. By means of comparison, Sydney house prices are expected to fall by 1.2% to June 2021.</li>
<li>Unit prices are also expected to decline 2.1% to $545,000 in Melbourne.</li>
<li>Continued population growth is expected to absorb some of the excess supply of units.</li>
</ul>
<div><span class="qbe-section-heading">Brisbane</span></div>
<ul>
<li>House price growth will continue and be 11.3% higher to $615,000 by June 2021. This is more growth than Canberra (10.4%), Hobart (7.9%), Darwin (6.0%) and Perth (5.0%). Only Adelaide (12.4%) is expected to outperform Brisbane house prices. </li>
<li>Oversupply of units will continue to put downward pressure on rents and prices of units to decline by 5.1% to $405,000. This is the greatest expected decline of all capital cities. </li>
<li>Greater competition for tenants of inner-city apartments is forecast to cause investors to lower rents to try to draw tenants from houses and more affordable city fringe locations. </li>
</ul>
<p><span class="qbe-section-heading">Perth</span></p>
<ul>
<li>Overall, the Perth market is expected to be at or near the bottom with houses and units expected to experience some growth in price to June 2021. House price growth in Perth will beat Sydney and Melbourne but underperform compared to Adelaide, Brisbane, Canberra, Hobart and Darwin. </li>
<li>Dwelling surplus in Perth looks set to remain in place for some time. </li>
<li>The forecast median house price of $550,000 at June 2021 will represent cumulative growth of 5% over the next three years, with unit price forecast to rise 3.7% to $405,000.</li>
</ul>
<p><span class="qbe-section-heading">Adelaide</span></p>
<ul>
<li>Adelaide is expected to record similar house price growth as the last three years and is forecast to grow by 12.4 per cent over the next three years, the highest of any Australian capital city. </li>
<li>Median unit prices are projected to rise by a slightly lower 6.3 per cent, making Adelaide the second strongest unit market after Hobart’s 9.3 per cent. </li>
<li>These positive forecasts can be attributed to Adelaide’s ongoing market affordability, coupled with low interest rates, despite South Australia’s generally depressed conditions. </li>
</ul>
<p><span class="qbe-section-heading">Canberra</span></p>
<ul>
<li>Growth in house prices forecast with median house price to increase 10.4% to reach $745,000. This is more than growth forecast for Sydney, Melbourne, Hobart, Darwin and Perth. </li>
<li>Unit price is forecast to reach $465,000, a cumulative rise of 5.9% to 2021. </li>
<li>Conditions in the house market in Canberra are expected to remain largely positive, driven by population growth, an undersupply of houses and strong employment prospects. </li>
</ul>
<p><span class="qbe-section-heading">Hobart</span></p>
<ul>
<li>Hobart’s median house price forecast to rise to $520,000, reflecting growth of 7.9% to 2021.</li>
<li>Median unit price in Hobart forecast to reach $420,000 at June 2021; a cumulative rise of 9.3%. </li>
<li>An undersupply of housing and better affordability relative to other capital cities is expected to continue to influence the property market</li>
<li>While all other states across the country saw declines in the value of investment loans, Tasmania’s strong capital gains in recent years meant it was the only state to see increased investor lending, of 9.7 per cent. </li>
</ul>
<p><span class="qbe-section-heading">Darwin</span></p>
<ul>
<li>This trend is expected to recover with house prices forecast to grow 6.0 per cent over the next three years.  </li>
<li>Unit prices are expected to fall 4.5 per cent over the same period. </li>
</ul>
<p><span class="qbe-sub-heading">State-by-state house price forecasts</span></p>
<p><span class="qbe-sub-heading"><img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2018/10/25/QBE%20HOUSE%20.jpg" alt=""></span></p>
<p><span class="qbe-sub-heading"><span>State by-state unit price forecasts</span></span></p>
<p><img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2018/10/25/QBE%20UNITS.jpg" alt=""> </p>
<p><span class="qbe-section-heading"> </span></p>
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j.ballantyne1990-6AQqhLzZaK

Great Australian dream once again within first home buyer reach: QBE suggest

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<p><span>Chief executive of McGrath estate agents John McGrath has said the Australian market is in different stages of recovery related to price ranges, with many metropolitan markets in the very early stages of their growth cycle - at best.</span></p>
<p><span>In the McGrath 2015 Report he noted the </span><span style="line-height: 1.3em;">Sydney and Melbourne have been the star performers with 62% and 32% growth respectively, since the GFC (2009-2015). </span></p>
<p><span style="line-height: 1.3em;">"However, if you look beyond the last few years and review growth </span><span style="line-height: 1.3em;">in both cities over the last decade, </span><span style="line-height: 1.3em;">it’s fair to say that longer term growth rates have not been as extraordinary. In fact, Australia’s two biggest cities both underperformed against their usual 10- year growth rates," he said.</span></p>
<p>"Looking around the country it’s just as clear that many other metropolitan markets are in the very early stages of their growth cycle at best – and in some instances as flat as the proverbial pancake. </p>
<p>"So if we drill down on Sydney, what seems to be driving this demand? It’s pretty straightforward"</p>
<p>There are five key drivers: </p>
<ol>
<li>
<p>Record low interest rates </p>
</li>
<li>
<p>Increased demand from small investors and SMSFs </p>
</li>
<li>
<p>An underlying shortage of property coupled with continued immigration </p>
</li>
<li>
<p>High demand from Chinese buyers </p>
</li>
<li>
<p>A stable economy (apart from a few recent economic tremors). </p>
</li>
</ol>
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jonathanchancellor-7SQnKwU6yx

Sydney and Melbourne star performers: John McGrath

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<p>GUEST OBSERVER</p>
<p>The Sydney and Melbourne property markets have hotted up again and high house prices and household debt leave Australia vulnerable. But a property crash remains unlikely.</p>
<p>Expect average home prices to fall 5-10% once an interest rate tightening cycle gets underway in 2018-19. Sydney and Melbourne unit prices are most at risk.</p>
<p>More macro prudential measures to slow property demand are likely on the way. Alleviating poor affordability over the long term is best addressed by boosting supply. </p>
<p>The cooling in the Sydney and Melbourne property markets evident in late 2015 in response to macro prudential tightening deployed by APRA has proved ephemeral. Price gains have reaccelerated and auction clearance rates &amp; lending to property investors have rebounded. Over the last five years Sydney dwelling prices have risen a ridiculous 73 percent and Melbourne prices are up 47%. As a result the Australian housing market continues to cause much angst around poor affordability and high household debt. This note looks at the main issues. </p>
<p><a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/03/15/Screen%20Shot%202017-03-15%20at%2012.57.38%20PM.png" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></p>
<p><img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2017/03/15/Screen%20Shot%202017-03-15%20at%2012.57.38%20PM.png" alt=""></p>
<p>Is Australian housing overvalued?</p>
<p>On most measures Australian housing is overvalued:</p>
<p>On the basis of the ratio of house prices to rents adjusted for inflation relative to its long term average Australian houses are 39% overvalued and units 13% overvalued.</p>
<p>According to the 2017 Demographia Housing Affordability Survey the median multiple of house prices in cities over 1 million people to household income is 6.6 times in Australia versus 3.9 in the US and 4.5 in the UK. In Sydney it’s 12.2 times and Melbourne is 9.5 times.</p>
<p>The ratios of house prices to incomes and rents are at the high end of OECD countries. </p>
<p><a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/03/15/Screen%20Shot%202017-03-15%20at%2012.58.38%20PM.png" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></p>
<p><img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2017/03/15/Screen%20Shot%202017-03-15%20at%2012.58.38%20PM.png" alt=""></p>
<p>Why is it so expensive and household debt so high?</p>
<p>There are two main drivers of the surge in Australian home prices over the last two decades. First, the shift from high to low interest rates has boosted borrowing and hence buying power. This has taken Australia’s household debt to income ratio from the low end of OECD countries 25 years ago to the top end. Second, there has been an inadequate supply response to demand. The following chart shows a cumulative shortfall relative to underlying demand had built up by 2014 and is still yet to be worked off despite record construction lately. </p>
<p><a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/03/15/Screen%20Shot%202017-03-15%20at%2012.59.35%20PM.png" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></p>
<p><img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2017/03/15/Screen%20Shot%202017-03-15%20at%2012.59.35%20PM.png" alt=""></p>
<p>Consistent with this, while vacancy rates have increased they have only increased to around average long term levels. In Sydney vacancy rates are below average.</p>
<p>What about investors and foreign buyers?</p>
<p>A range of additional factors may be playing a role in accentuating demand beyond that implied by population growth. These include negative gearing and the capital gains tax discount, foreign buying and SMSF buying. Negative gearing is just part of the normal operation of the Australian tax system.</p>
<p>However, the interaction with the capital gains tax discount by enhancing the after tax return available to property investment may be resulting in higher investment activity than would otherwise be the case. This may particularly be the case when past property price gains have been strong encouraging investors to think future gains will be too. While commitments to lend to property investors slowed in 2015 after APRA tightened macro prudential controls, this has since worn off. </p>
<p><a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/03/15/Screen%20Shot%202017-03-15%20at%201.00.29%20PM.png" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></p>
<p><img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2017/03/15/Screen%20Shot%202017-03-15%20at%201.00.29%20PM.png" alt=""></p>
<p>Foreign buying is likely also impacting – with indications that it is around 10-15 percent of demand – but it is also concentrated in particular areas and SMSF buying appears to be relatively small. But like lower interest rates, all of these should have a less lasting impact if the supply response was stronger.</p>
<p>Is a crash likely?</p>
<p>The surge in prices and debt has led many to conclude a crash is imminent. But we have heard that lots of times over the last 10-15 years. In 2004, The Economist magazine described Australia as “America’s ugly sister” thanks in part to a “borrowing binge” and soaring property prices. Most recently the OECD has warned of the risks of a property crash. However, the situation is not so simple:</p>
<p>Firstly, we have not seen a generalised oversupply and at the current rate we won’t go into oversupply until 2018 and in any case approvals suggest supply will peak this year.</p>
<p>Secondly, mortgage stress is relatively low and debt interest payments relative to income are around 2003-04 levels.</p>
<p>Thirdly, lending standards have not deteriorated like they did in other countries prior to the GFC. In recent years there has been a reduction in loans with high loan to valuation ratios and interest only loans are down from their peak.</p>
<p>Finally, generalising is dangerous. While prices have surged in Sydney and Melbourne, they have fallen in Perth to 2007 levels and seen only moderate growth in other capitals.</p>
<p>To see a general property crash – say a 20 percent plus average price fall - we need to see one or more of the following: a recession - which looks unlikely; a surge in interest rates - but rate hikes are unlikely until 2018 and the RBA will take account of the greater sensitivity of households to higher rates; and property oversupply – this would require the current construction boom to continue for several years. However, the risks on the supply front are high in relation to apartments.</p>
<p>What can be done to fix it?</p>
<p>Recent RBA commentary strongly hints that more macro prudential measures to tighten lending standards are on the way. These could include a further lowering in the 10% growth cap on the stock of lending to investors and tougher debt serviceability tests. This is in part about reducing the risks to financial stability when it’s too early to consider raising rates.</p>
<p>More fundamentally, policies to help address poor housing affordability should focus on boosting new supply, particularly of standalone homes which have lagged. This includes relaxing land use restrictions, releasing land faster, speeding up approval processes and encouraging greater decentralisation. This is largely a state issue. Policies designed to make better use of the existing housing stock (eg, by relaxing constraints on empty nesters downsizing) could also help. </p>
<p>Policies that are unlikely to be successful include increased first home owner grants (as in periods of high demand they just result in higher prices) and allowing first home buyers to access to their super (again this will just result in even higher prices unless supply is fixed before and will mean less in retirement).</p>
<p>Tax reform should ideally be part of the package and include replacing stamp duty with land tax (again a state issue), removing the capital gains tax discount that is a distortion in the tax system and lower income tax rates to discourage use of negative gearing as a tax avoidance strategy. Piecemeal cuts to stamp duty targeted at FHBs will just result in higher home prices. Abolishing negative gearing would just inject another distortion in the tax system and could adversely affect supply (although I can see a case to cap excessive benefits).</p>
<p>What is the outlook?</p>
<p>Generalised price falls are unlikely until the RBA starts to raise interest rates again and this is unlikely until later in 2018, which after a few hikes will likely trigger a 5-10% pullback in property prices as was seen in the 2009 &amp; 2011 cycles:</p>
<p>Sydney &amp; Melbourne having seen big gains are most at risk.</p>
<p>Prices are likely to fall further in Perth and Darwin this year, but they are close to bottoming and should rise next year.</p>
<p>The other capitals are likely to see continued moderate growth this year and a less severe down cycle around 2019.</p>
<p>But units are at much greater risk given surging supply and this could see unit prices in parts of Sydney &amp; Melbourne fall by 15-20 percent as investor interest fades as rents falls.</p>
<p>What are the risks to the economy?</p>
<p>Slowing momentum in building approvals points to a slowdown in the dwelling construction cycle ahead. This combined with a slowing wealth affect from rising home prices means that the contribution to growth from the housing will slow. However, as this is likely to coincide with a fading in the detraction from growth due to falling mining investment and higher commodity prices it’s unlikely to drive a slowing in the economy. However, a likely decline in rents (as the supply of units hits) will constraint inflation helping keep interest rates low for longer. </p>
<p><a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/03/15/Screen%20Shot%202017-03-15%20at%201.01.58%20PM.png" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></p>
<p><img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2017/03/15/Screen%20Shot%202017-03-15%20at%201.01.58%20PM.png" alt=""></p>
<p>A property crash would have bigger impact given the exposure of banks, but as noted above such a development is unlikely.</p>
<p>Implications for investors</p>
<p>While there is a strong long term role for residential property in investors’ portfolios at present their remains a case for caution. It is expensive on all metrics and offers very low net income (rental) yields of 2 percent or less. This leaves investors highly dependent on capital growth.</p>
<p>But it is dangerous to generalise. Apartments in parts of Sydney and Melbourne are probably least attractive. Best to focus on areas that have lagged behind.</p>
<p>Finally, investors need to allow for the fact that they likely already have a high exposure to Australian housing. As a share of household wealth it’s nearly 60%.</p>
<p class="p1"><span class="s1"><a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/https://plus.google.com/110172465327488162875?rel=author"><em>SHANE OLIVER</em></a></span><span class="s2"><em> is head of investment strategy and economics and chief economist at </em><a href="https://www.ampcapital.com.au/home"><span class="s1"><em>AMP Capital</em></span></a><em> and is responsible for AMP Capital's diversified investment funds.</em></span></p>
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soliver-smf6LQXgW9

Sydney, Melbourne property market hot, property crash unlikely: Shane Oliver

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<p>Realestateview.com.au is now offering a new tool to home owners and seekers that can, they claim, provide an accurate dollar value on their home </p>
<p>By partnering with CoreLogic, Australia’s leading property data provider, <a href="https://realestateview.com.au/" target="_blank">realestateview.com.au</a> has further developed its first-to-market 'Price Estimator' which provides property owners and property seekers with instant price value ranges.</p>
<p>Every address searched has a range of property data and demographic information relevant to the suburb where that property is located. G</p>
<p>“Over 40 percent of people visiting our site every month engage with a Price Estimator page. It’s extremely popular, and now with the experience being powered by CoreLogic, there’s even more reasons for consumers to rely on our site for address-level property insights and data,” said Toby Balazs, realestateview.com.au CEO.</p>
<p>“Being the number three property portal in Australia, realestateview.com.au is focused on delivering new and value adding experiences to keep our property-obsessed audience engaged with the site."</p>
<p>“The great thing about CoreLogic is that people know and trust the data, it’s referenced everywhere and in our industry, it has a reputation for quality and accuracy,” he went on to say.</p>
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