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The expiry of Tasmania's first home buyer incentives for purchasers of established dwellings in 2014 saw first home buyer demand decline, according to QBE’s latest housing report.
First home buyer demand in the state has since bottomed out and is now in a recovery phase, the report said.
Loans to first home buyers increased by an annual 6% in 2015/16 and the rising trend has been accelerating, with loans to first home buyers in June quarter 2016 being 24% higher than the same period a year earlier.
It is likely that some of this demand stems from increased interstate migration. In contrast, purchase activity by upgraders and downsizers has been easing, with loans to non–first home buyers having fallen by 4% in 2015/16.
Demand from investors has also been decreasing, with the total value of loans to investors having fallen by an annual 13% in 2015/16. As with the other states, tightened lending policy by the banks is containing investor demand, although the decline in 2015/16 has been lower than the national decline.
Rental growth has been largely flat and vacancy rates are close to balance at just under 3% through 2015/16.
House prices in Hobart were flat in 2014/15, but picked up in 2015/16, with the median house price increasing by 5.2%. Tasmania’s net interstate migration outflow has been steadily declining since peaking in 2011/12, and interstate migration is on track to record a net inflow in 2015/16.
Part of the driver of this recovery is likely to be increased “tree changers” downsizing from the more expensive mainland capitals, while there are also likely to be many returnees from the mining states who contributed to the higher net interstate migration outflows of recent years.
House price growth has been unevenly spread across the Local Government Areas of Hobart. Median house price growth has been particularly strong in Hobart (10.1%), Clarence (8.4%) and Kingborough (6.9%). Glenorchy (1.1%) and Brighton (2.8%) saw more moderate house price growth while Sorell (–3.3%) experienced a decline in its median house price. The overall Greater Hobart median grew 5.2% over 2015/16.
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The Tasmanian economy has been weak in recent years. A high Australian dollar and slow population growth have added to general economic weakness. However, improved household spending, non–residential building activity and improving exports suggest a stronger economic recovery.
The weakening Australian dollar should support growth in tourism while the agricultural and mining industries should also benefit. The state unemployment rate fell from 7.8% at March 2014 to 6.6% at March 2016. Greater Hobart has a lower unemployment rate than the rest of the state, having fallen from 6.7% to 6.1% over the same period.
Greater Hobart has also been the main destination for migrants from overseas, interstate and the rest of Tasmania, with its population rising by 0.8% in 2014/15 while the population of the rest of Tasmania was flat.
On the supply side, completions at the state level have continued to rise while underlying demand has been slow. This has seen Tasmania’s dwelling surplus climb from 4,800 dwellings to an estimated 5,300 dwellings at June 2016. Given the disparity between population growth, it is likely that the oversupply is greater in regional Tasmania.
Reflecting lower income levels and fewer drivers of employment, Hobart has the lowest median house price compared to the other state capitals. Its relative affordability compared to other capital cities is a significant driver of demand as interstate migrants seek a more affordable market.
The current low interest rate environment is expected to improve affordability and spur purchaser demand, the QBE report said. Poor affordability in Melbourne and Sydney is expected to fuel further migration to Tasmanian cities, a trend already evident with the net interstate inflow forecast to increase further to 1,000 persons in 2016/17 and 2017/18.
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Overall, the gradual recovery in the local economy and interstate migration is expected to underpin price growth, while the presence of an excess dwelling stock at the state level will likely limit price growth to more moderate levels. Hobart’s median house price is forecast to rise from $377,900 at June 2016 to $425,000 by June 2019, reflecting growth of around 4% per annum or a cumulative 12.5%.
With a significantly smaller unit market, and thus a smaller sample of sales volumes to measure the median, movement in the median unit price in Hobart can be much more volatile from quarter to quarter. Overall, however, median unit prices have been in a gradual decline since its peak median price of $420,000 in June 2011.
With falling investor demand, the unit market could experience the greatest impact as investor purchasers have traditionally been more prevalent buying units.
This softness is expected to continue to dampen demand, limiting median unit price growth to a forecast 1%–2% per annum through to 2018/19. This is forecast by QBE to push the median unit price to $315,000 at June 2019; a cumulative growth of 4.5% over the forecast period.
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Hobart first home buyers in recovery stage: QBE Housing Outlook

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<div>House prices across Australia are tipped to grow in the next three years, with the exception of Sydney and Melbourne where they will continue falling in 2019, according to QBE’s Australian Housing Outlook 2018-2021.</div>
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<div>It reveals that over the next three years house prices are set to rise in Adelaide by 12.4 per cent, in Brisbane by 11.3 per cent, Canberra by 10.4 per cent, Hobart by 7.9 per cent, Darwin by 6 per cent and Perth 5 per cent after several years of stagnant conditions. </div>
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<div>Providing a 12-month window for first home buyers to pursue the Great Australian Dream, the primary drivers for a strengthening property market in these capital cities are affordability, increased demand and improving economic conditions. </div>
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<div>The report has been quickly labelled "delusional reading."
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<div>QBE Lenders’ Mortgage Insurance (LMI) CEO, Phil White, said the surge in first home owner lending proved the Great Australian Dream of home ownership was alive.</div>
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<div>“We haven’t seen the first home buyer market this strong since the Australian Government’s 2008 stimulus plan following the Global Financial Crisis, which saw $1.5 billion allocated to first home buyers,” Mr White said. </div>
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<div>“The increases in the volume of first home buyers has been supported by improvements in affordability and first home buyer incentives. </div>
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<div>“Record low interest rates in recent years had seen a surge in investor lending, but this year’s report shows investor lending scaling back, which should also provide further room for first home buyers over the next couple of years.</div>
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<div>“Lenders’ responses to regulatory restrictions have contributed to the softening of the market.  State government incentives have encouraged first home buyers to enter the market after several years of being pushed out by domestic and foreign investors.”</div>
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<div>Adelaide is forecast to see the strongest growth of any capital city in the country, continuing its steady growth trajectory, but outpacing all other capital cities over the next three years.</div>
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<div>The outlook is less rosy for apartment owners, with unit prices set to fall in Brisbane by 5.1 per cent, Darwin by 4.5 per cent, Sydney by 3.1 per cent and Melbourne by 2.1 per cent. </div>
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<div>This is due to weaker demand from investors and an increase in supply of apartments. </div>
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<div>“We anticipate foreign investment will further dampen in coming years owing to a number of factors such as increased approval fees, stamp duty and land tax surcharges, as well as tighter capital controls from foreign governments, most notably China, which have impacted how much money they can take out of their country,” Mr White said.</div>
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<div>Over the next three years, the overall housing market will be supported by strong population growth, with net overseas migration forecast to remain high in the long-term, averaging 220,000 per annum over three years to 2020-2021, significantly higher than the prior 20-year average of 183,000 per annum. </div>
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<div>This growth will underpin demand for new dwellings and help meet the high level of new supply coming online in some markets. </div>
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<div><a href="https://www.qbe.com.au/lmi/news/reports/housing-outlook"> </a></div>
<div>State-by-state highlights of the QBE Housing Outlook 2018-2021</div>
Sydney
<ul>
<li>Sydney’s house prices are expected to fall in the beginning forecast period and end up 1.2% lower to be at $1,090,000. </li>
<li>The unit market is expected to fall even further for Sydney with a forecast drop of 3.1% to 2021 to reach $745,000. </li>
<li>Affordability and first home buyer incentives are expected to continue to underpin first home buyer activity</li>
<li>After seeing the strongest price growth in the 12 months prior, Sydney’s inner and middle ring suburbs have seen the largest fall in prices over 2017/18 (falling by 8.1% and 10.6% respectively).</li>
<li>Outer Sydney saw a more moderate decline of 2.8% over the same period, which was likely supported by its relative affordability appealing to first home buyers.</li>
</ul>
Melbourne
<ul>
<li>Housing market prices to fall in Melbourne, with house prices expected to drop by 2.5% to $835,000 by June 2021. By means of comparison, Sydney house prices are expected to fall by 1.2% to June 2021.</li>
<li>Unit prices are also expected to decline 2.1% to $545,000 in Melbourne.</li>
<li>Continued population growth is expected to absorb some of the excess supply of units.</li>
</ul>
<div>Brisbane</div>
<ul>
<li>House price growth will continue and be 11.3% higher to $615,000 by June 2021. This is more growth than Canberra (10.4%), Hobart (7.9%), Darwin (6.0%) and Perth (5.0%). Only Adelaide (12.4%) is expected to outperform Brisbane house prices. </li>
<li>Oversupply of units will continue to put downward pressure on rents and prices of units to decline by 5.1% to $405,000. This is the greatest expected decline of all capital cities. </li>
<li>Greater competition for tenants of inner-city apartments is forecast to cause investors to lower rents to try to draw tenants from houses and more affordable city fringe locations. </li>
</ul>
Perth
<ul>
<li>Overall, the Perth market is expected to be at or near the bottom with houses and units expected to experience some growth in price to June 2021. House price growth in Perth will beat Sydney and Melbourne but underperform compared to Adelaide, Brisbane, Canberra, Hobart and Darwin. </li>
<li>Dwelling surplus in Perth looks set to remain in place for some time. </li>
<li>The forecast median house price of $550,000 at June 2021 will represent cumulative growth of 5% over the next three years, with unit price forecast to rise 3.7% to $405,000.</li>
</ul>
Adelaide
<ul>
<li>Adelaide is expected to record similar house price growth as the last three years and is forecast to grow by 12.4 per cent over the next three years, the highest of any Australian capital city. </li>
<li>Median unit prices are projected to rise by a slightly lower 6.3 per cent, making Adelaide the second strongest unit market after Hobart’s 9.3 per cent. </li>
<li>These positive forecasts can be attributed to Adelaide’s ongoing market affordability, coupled with low interest rates, despite South Australia’s generally depressed conditions. </li>
</ul>
Canberra
<ul>
<li>Growth in house prices forecast with median house price to increase 10.4% to reach $745,000. This is more than growth forecast for Sydney, Melbourne, Hobart, Darwin and Perth. </li>
<li>Unit price is forecast to reach $465,000, a cumulative rise of 5.9% to 2021. </li>
<li>Conditions in the house market in Canberra are expected to remain largely positive, driven by population growth, an undersupply of houses and strong employment prospects. </li>
</ul>
Hobart
<ul>
<li>Hobart’s median house price forecast to rise to $520,000, reflecting growth of 7.9% to 2021.</li>
<li>Median unit price in Hobart forecast to reach $420,000 at June 2021; a cumulative rise of 9.3%. </li>
<li>An undersupply of housing and better affordability relative to other capital cities is expected to continue to influence the property market</li>
<li>While all other states across the country saw declines in the value of investment loans, Tasmania’s strong capital gains in recent years meant it was the only state to see increased investor lending, of 9.7 per cent. </li>
</ul>
Darwin
<ul>
<li>This trend is expected to recover with house prices forecast to grow 6.0 per cent over the next three years.  </li>
<li>Unit prices are expected to fall 4.5 per cent over the same period. </li>
</ul>
State-by-state house price forecasts
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State by-state unit price forecasts
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Great Australian dream once again within first home buyer reach: QBE suggest

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Median house prices in Sydney began to escalate at the end of 2012 as successive cuts to interest rates and the underlying dwelling deficiency firmly in place released pent up demand into the market, according to QBE's latest housing report.
Sydney’s median house price experienced a considerable increase totalling 58% over the four years to June 2016 to be $1,047,600.
Purchaser demand was initially boosted by improved affordability as variable rates fell below 6.5% in 2012 keeping the ratio of mortgage repayments on a median priced house to just over 31% of average household income, which initiated the upturn before further interest rate cuts fuelled stronger price growth through 2013.
The return of solid price growth drove more investors into the market. At the same time, a strong recovery in the New South Wales economy, attracted surging overseas migration and a record low interstate outflow, which in turn caused Sydney’s dwelling deficiency to escalate.
As prices rose, the next wave of demand was driven by investor buyers attracted by price growth and attractive yields in light of the falling interest rates. The value of residential investor loans in New South Wales surged 153% in the three years to 2014/15. In comparison, the number of loans to owner occupiers were 9% higher in the same period.
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Median house price growth peaked at 24.4% per annum over 2014/15 but has since slowed considerably, estimated to have declined by a marginal 0.4% in the year to June 2016. Investor finance is now contracting after banks tightened access to credit and increased interest rates for investor loans in 2015.
Loans to investors began to fall dramatically in December quarter 2015, being 22% down on the corresponding period a year earlier, while the total annual decline of loans to investors in 2015/16 was 17%. Over the twelve months to June 2016, median house prices in inner and middle Sydney (where prices are significantly higher) were in decline while outer Sydney maintained growth of 3.9%.
This correction, largely driven by the impact of regulatory changes targeted at investor buyers, is in contrast to the strong fundamentals in the house market.
Vacancy rates continue to remain tight at 1.8% in June 2016 while underlying demand is forecast to remain strong due to strong population growth from solid net overseas migration and low net interstate migration.
With investors making room in the market, loans to owner occupiers have accelerated, recording an 11% rise in 2015/16.
This is expected to somewhat offset further expected weakness in investor loans, with Sydney’s median house price forecast to see further price growth of 1.7% in 2016/17 to be $1,065,000 at June 2017.
However, the growing impetus from owner occupiers is likely to slow. New dwelling supply began to exceed demand in 2015/16, with Sydney’s underlying dwelling deficiency finally beginning to ease.
Further expected falls in the deficiency through to 2018/19 is expected to continue to ease pressure on prices.
Together with continued weakening investor demand, this is expected to precipitate a fall in Sydney’s median house price.
Low interest rates should prevent any major flood of forced sales onto the market to drive down prices significantly, with a forecast fall in the standard variable rate to below 5% in 2017/18 also providing some support.
Sydney’s median house price is forecast to pull back to $1,055,000 by June 2018 and $1,050,000 by June 2019, resulting in median house price growth being effectively flat by the end of the forecast period.
New South Wales is the only state that is forecast to maintain its underlying dwelling deficiency through to 2019 despite record levels of dwelling completions coming through. Strong population growth has supported rising underlying demand while the low interest rate environment has supported affordability.
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Tight vacancy rates and limited rental growth are expected to continue to drive investor demand. Moreover, compared to many other capital cities, aggregate new dwelling supply in Sydney has been characterised by a proportionate increase in both new house and unit supply. As a result, both house and unit markets are likely to remain in deficiency over the forecast period.
Price growth in the Sydney unit market has been below that of the house market. Sydney’s median unit price rose by an estimated 41% in the four years to June 2016. However, price growth has already started to flatten with the median unit price growing by just 3% in 2015/16.
Slowing rental growth and falling yields as well as changes to the regulatory landscape have impacted investor demand. Investors are more prevalent in the unit market than the detached house market and it is expected that the larger falls expected in investor demand mean the unit market will have greater downside in price than the house market over the forecast period.
With higher interest rates and lower loan–to–value ratios for investor lending, capacity for investors to enter the market or pay higher prices is being curtailed. Similarly, the new level of apartment construction taking place may have an impact on vacancy rates and rental growth as the dwelling deficiency is slowly eroded.
Sydney’s median unit price growth is forecast to fall 1.8% in 2016/17 and cumulatively by 6.8% over the three years to June 2019 to a median unit price of $680,000.
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Sydney unit price growth forecast to be flat: QBE Housing Outlook

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Underlying demand for new dwellings is driven primarily by population growth which, at the state level, is a combination of an increase in births less deaths and net overseas and net interstate migration flows, according to QBE’s latest housing report.
The demand from net overseas and net interstate migration is more immediate because this group typically requires accommodation upon arrival, be it owner occupied or rental. Net overseas migration refers to the balance of arrivals to, and departures from, Australia. To be included in this calculation, an arrival is counted if they are resident in the country for 12 out of 16 months.
Long term arrivals – which predominantly comprise people on student or skilled temporary subclass 457 visas – surged to an annual record of 516,000 in the year to March 2013. Solid employment growth in mining sector related industries resulted in a re-emergence of skills shortages which underpinned the rise in long term overseas visitors.
Although arrivals from overseas were at record levels in March 2013, departures from Australia were also increasing, with the net effect that net overseas migration was below the record levels set in 2008.
Since the second half of 2013, long term arrivals have contracted in response to the slowing conditions in the Australian economy. There has been a decline in work–related visas such as subclass 457 visas as the reduction in the resource sector investment leads to diminished employment opportunities.
Long term departures are on the increase as temporary migrants return to their country of origin upon expiry of their visas. Net migration from New Zealand has also declined in this period because its economy has improved relative to Australia.
With the decline in annual net inflow from long term arrivals, net overseas migration has decreased to an estimated 155,000 at June 2016. Falling arrivals and increasing departures, due to the lack of opportunities for temporary migrants to extend their stay, is forecast to continue, taking net overseas migration to a low of 140,000 in 2017/18 and 2018/19.
While lower than recent peaks, this figure is elevated in a long term sense, being higher than most years through the 1990s and early 2000s. There may be some upside to these forecasts.
Strong growth is occurring in international student enrolments, with the number of overseas students commencing courses in Australia increasing by 42% in the three years to 2015/16, and net overseas migration could be higher if many elect to stay on.
Average annual net overseas migration over the 2016/17 to 2018/19 period is forecast to be lower across all states (with the exception of the Australian Capital Territory) than the long term 1999/2000 to 2015/16 average.
The largest declines are expected to be in the states where net overseas migration inflows have been high as a result of skills shortage generated by booming resource sector investment.
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The forecast share of national net overseas migration in Western Australia (8.0%), Queensland (12.0%) and Northern Territory (0.5%) over 2016/17 to 2018/19 will be significantly lower than their long term average.
Weak employment prospects as mining investment continues to decline will encourage more overseas migrants to settle in the other states, while overseas migrants employed on temporary working visas are increasingly returning home as projects wind up.
Growth in overseas migration into New South Wales and Victoria lagged that of the resource states during the mining investment boom. As a result, the states are not experiencing rising outflows of temporary workers. Moreover, with the strongest performing state economies, these states are also attracting a greater share of arrivals.
The states are forecast to attract an average 40.1% and 31.3% of Australia’s net overseas migration respectively between 2016/17 to 2018/19; higher than their long term average share. The Australian Capital Territory is also forecast to attract an increased share of national net overseas migration.
Overseas students look to be one of the few components of net overseas migration to increase. Australian National University has a large overseas student population, which has an influence in a smaller city such as Canberra.
As with New South Wales and Victoria, net overseas migration into South Australia and Tasmania was also behind the resource states.
With economic conditions remaining challenging in these states, their share of national net overseas migration over 2016/17 to 2018/19 is forecast to be similar to their recent average since 2007/08 (6.0% and 0.7% respectively).
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Overseas migrants in decline: QBE Housing Outlook

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Yields in the capital cities are below the 15 year average, according to QBE’s latest housing report.
This can be seen in the chart below, which shows movement in indicative rental yields for houses by capital city. The indicative yield is calculated as the median three bedroom house rent divided by the median house price.
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The indicative yield slightly understates actual yields, as the median house price is reflective of the whole market (investors and owner occupiers) while rents are reflective of just properties in the investment market.
Investment properties are more likely to be priced below the median house price of all dwellings, although achieve a typical rent. Nevertheless, movement in the indicative yield should correspond with actual yields.
QBE compared the rental return with the cost of financing by using the measurements for indicative rental yield and the standard variable interest rate respectively.
• In Sydney and Melbourne, indicative rental yields for houses are well below other capital cities, with stronger house price growth in these two capitals over the past three years widening the gap. At June 2016, the indicative rental yield for houses in Sydney was 2.4% and in Melbourne was 2.5%. For Melbourne, this was the lowest yield on record, for Sydney, yields are at their lowest level since 2004.
• In Adelaide and Perth, yields at June 2016 were on par at 3.9%. In Canberra, yields were a little higher at 4.2%. Adelaide’s yield has varied over the past 10 years, while sharp falls in rents in Perth have seen its yield decline. In Canberra, yields rose in the year to June 2016 as the fall in rents stabilised.
• Brisbane’s yields have fallen to 3.7% in 2015/16 as house price growth has been above the minimal rise in rents over the year. This is the lowest level recorded.
• In Darwin weaker rental growth has resulted in a continued decline in housing yields in 2015/16, to 4.6%. Darwin has the highest indicative house yield of the capital cities, just edging out Hobart which had yields relatively stable at 4.6% during the year.
Yields in all capital cities are below the 15-year average. Despite the low yields, the corresponding low mortgage interest rates means the gap between rental yields and interest rates in most capital cities remains narrow.
In some instances, selected properties in individual markets are likely to be positively geared, particularly with the current ability of purchasers to obtain a rate better than the current standard variable rate.
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Rental yields in capital cities are below the 15-year average: QBE Housing Outlook

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The median house price in Adelaide has shown steady growth since 2012/13 as lower interest rates and prices at a relatively low base resulted in a period of improved affordability, according to QBE's latest housing report.
Employment drivers at the time, in the form of public infrastructure projects, also spurred migration inflows propping up underlying demand. The median house prices at June 2016 was $461,000, up 3.2% on a year earlier.
Inner Adelaide median house prices have grown 26.7% on a year earlier. However, the inner region covers a small sample area and is a tightly held market with low transactional activity increasing volatility in the median price measurement. The Middle and Outer ring medians have shown much more moderate growth at 2.7% and 2.1% respectively.
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The South Australian economy is forecast to face some significant economic headwinds with the manufacturing sector suffering from the relatively high Australian dollar compared to lower cost competitors overseas. Several public engineering construction projects have also been completed such as the Noarlunga Line Electrification, the South Road Superway and the Southern Expressway Duplication.
With the completion of these projects, public investment will decline significantly with few projects to fill the void in employment growth. Additionally, the scheduled closure of the Holden manufacturing plant in Elizabeth in 2017 is expected to further drag on the economy.
Some job creation should come from increased ship and submarine building, but with few other large employment drivers, the state economy is expected to struggle for growth.
Dwelling construction activity has also peaked in 2015/16 as price growth and low borrowing costs has driven commencements. Underlying demand has not kept pace and an excess in dwellings is forecast to have emerged in Adelaide in 2015/16.
This surplus is expected to accelerate over the forecast period as underlying demand remains weak brought on by softening economic conditions. This is expected to put pressure on vacancy rates, already climbing above the balanced rate in June 2016 at 3.3%.
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As rental yields fall and competition increases for tenants, investor demand is expected to contract leading to limited house price growth.
The low interest rate environment with potential cuts over the next year, is expected to result in affordability improving. The ratio of mortgage repayments on a median priced house is forecast to be around 21%, which is the lower end of its range over the past 20 years.
This will prevent major falls in house prices and median house price growth of 0.9% is expected in 2017/18, before the rising surplus and slowing economic activity result in a 2.2% decline in prices in 2017/18.
A total decline of 1.3% is expected for median house prices over the forecast period, taking the median house price to $455,000 at June 2019.
Compared with the east coast capital cities, Adelaide does not experience the same level of new unit or apartment development activity and the unit market is consequently forecast to move in line with the forecast for house prices. However, much like the other state capitals, investor purchasers are more prevalent in the unit market.
Tighter restrictions on investor lending is seeing a decline in investor demand and as a result median unit prices are forecast to remain relatively flat over the three years to 2019, declining an aggregate 0.6% over this period to $340,000 at June 2019.
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Adelaide economy to struggle but major house price falls will be prevented: QBE Housing Outlook

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Perth’s median house price grew by 18% over the three years to December 2014, underpinned by record net overseas and interstate migration inflows, according to QBE's latest housing report. But the good times aren't set to last, the report predicts. 
This resulted in tight vacancy rates and significant rental growth. Demand was driven by strong economic conditions brought on by booming mining investment and significantly improved affordability as interest rates were lowered.
But mining investment is now retreating rapidly and economic conditions have weakened considerably.
New engineering construction has tapered off as projects adding additional mining capacity are progressively completed.
Diminished employment opportunity has led to a substantial fall in net migration. In 2014/15, net overseas migration fell below 15,000 persons for the first time since 2004.
Interstate migration has also become a net outflow for the first time since 2003. State unemployment has increased above 6% in the first half of 2016; above the national level of 5.7%.
While mining output has increased, the production phase is less labour intensive than the investment phase. Western Australia’s unemployment rate is likely to continue to rise and remain elevated in the medium term, QBE predict. Net migration inflows are likely to remain soft for now.
After peaking in December 2014, Perth’s median house price fell by 2% in the six months to June 2015, and this has accelerated to a decline of 5.6% in 2015/16. The decline was greatest in the inner Perth suburbs (–7.2%) while both Middle and Outer ring suburbs fell 5.2% in 2015/16.
The higher priced inner suburbs are likely to be feeling the largest impact from the weakness in the higher income resource sector jobs.
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Weakening owner occupier demand has seen the number of loans to both first home buyers and upgraders/ downsizers decline by 15% and 10% respectively in 2015/16. The decline in investor demand has been more dramatic, with the value of loans to investors falling by 32% in 2015/16.
Rising new dwelling building approvals through the upturn in prices is being reflected in new dwelling completions continuing to rise in 2016.
This contrasts with a sharp decline in the rate of population growth and consequently underlying demand. The Western Australian market has moved into oversupply, which is reflected in vacancy rates of close to 5%; far above the balanced market rate of 3%, say QBE.
With underlying demand likely to continue to weaken, and further dwellings under construction working their way to completion, there is little to place upward pressure on rents and prices through to 2018/19.
Overall, the Perth market is expected to weaken across both house and unit markets. The impact of a rising stock surplus and a slowing state economy is forecast to result in a further decline in Perth’s median house price of 3% to June 2018.
Low interest rates should mitigate a deeper fall in the median house price, which is expected to stabilise in 2018/19, and potentially show a minimal rise, with mining investment bottoming out and interest rates forecast to be cut further in 2018. The forecast median house price of $540,000 at June 2019 is forecast to be 10% below its December 2014 peak.
However, Perth’s median house price in real terms is forecast to be 24% below its peak in March 2007 set during the first mining boom through the middle of the decade.
<img src="/images/2016/10/14/Chart%2028.jpg" alt="">
The unit market has seen rising completions across Perth over the last three years. However, units remain just a third of all new dwelling approvals; well below the other capitals of Sydney, Melbourne and Brisbane.
Much of the strong migration into Perth has been temporary in nature with the unit market consequently expected to see a greater fall in rents and higher vacancy rates. Temporary residents tend to favour the unit market over the house market given the short term nature of their stay.
Downward rent and price pressures are therefore forecast to be greater in the unit market than the house market. Median unit rents have weakened significantly and Perth’s median unit price has begun to decline, falling by 6.5% in the year to June 2016 to $403,100. Further declines totalling 6% are forecast in 2016/17 and 2017/18, before unit prices bottom out over 2018/19 to be $380,000 at June 2019.
Regional centres in Western Australia have borne the brunt of the impact of the downturn in resource sector investment.
These towns typically have a narrow industry profile and are susceptible to local economic events. Median house prices climbed rapidly through the early boom period as the influx of mining investment led to job creation, population growth and demand for housing.
As the mining investment wound down, median house prices fell sharply while unemployment rates grew rapidly and population left.
• Karratha LGA in the Pilbara region saw earlier price growth as a result of the mid 2000s boom in mining investment, with the median house price already elevated after the GFC in 2009. The median house prices grew 21% to peak at $850,000 from their 2009 level. Since the peak, the median house price has fallen 64% to $304,000 in June quarter 2016. The unemployment rate has risen from 1.8% to 2.3% over the three years to March 2016.
• Port Hedland LGA saw its median house prices rising by 127% between June 2007 and March 2013, reaching a peak of $1.1 million. However, the median house price has since collapsed by 72% to $305,000 at June 2016, while the unemployment rate has risen from 3.3% to 5.0% in the three years to March 2016. It is likely that the unemployment rate in these centres is relatively low as those that are not employed are likely to have left.
<a href="/images/2016/10/14/Table%2011.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="/images/2016/10/14/Table%2011.jpg" alt="">
Sales volumes in Port Hedland and Karratha in 2015/16 are also well down on previous levels. The lower sales volumes suggests that many owners are retaining their property rather than accepting a loss on sale.
Those that are sold are more likely to be forced sales, which would be helping to drive the median sale price down.
Movements in population and demand have had a big impact on prices in the smaller regional centres, in contrast with Perth, where the median house price has only declined by 4% from its peak.
Perth also experienced a more moderate cycle in prices in the most recent boom in mining investment, with the median house price rising by 32% between December 2008 and September 2014. The larger size of the residential market and more diversified economic base of Perth has helped to support prices.
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Perth house prices heading towards 24% decline from boomtime peak: QBE Housing Outlook

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Investor purchasers reached a peak in 2014/15, nationally accounting for a high of 51 percent of all residential loan activity, according to QBE's latest housing report.
However, APRA’s guidance on home lending to investors resulted in a number of financial institutions raising interest rates on investor loans by 25 to 30 basis points in July 2015 (despite no change in the RBA cash rate), while also including increased interest rate buffers and tightened loan–to–value ratios in their lending criteria.
These measures effectively limited the supply of investor loans, and the value of loans to investors nationally fell by 17 percent in 2015/16. Moreover, investors’ share of total residential loan activity has fallen back to around long term levels, to 44 percent in 2015/16. Nevertheless, at this level, investors remain a key driver of capital city residential markets.
In contrast, owner occupier demand has risen. While first home buyer activity remained flat in 2015/16, loans to non–first home buyers rose by 7 percent in 2015/16. It may be that with less competition from investors, owner occupiers are stepping in to fill the gap.
As a result, non–first home buyers accounted for 43 percent of total residential finance in 2015/16, back to its 15 year average. Meanwhile, at 13 percent in 2015/16, the share of residential finance to first home buyers remains below its long–term average of 15 percent.
Growth in investment lending has also slowed as a result of APRA’s preference for financial institutions to contain annual portfolio growth in investment lending to below a 10 percent threshold, and lending policy toward investors appears to have eased slightly.
The rate of decline in investor lending has slowed a little toward the end of 2015/16. Monthly loans to investors edged up between April and June 2016, although in June 2016 still remained 15 percent below a year earlier. A return to the 2014/15 peak in investor activity is not expected.
Slowing rental and price growth is likely to contain investor appetite for residential property, while more recent tightening in bank lending policy toward overseas investors will also slow overall investor demand.
Overseas investors have been a key driver of demand for new dwellings, with some demand also flowing into the established home market. Typically, an overseas resident purchaser can only buy a new dwelling, while a temporary resident can purchase an established dwelling that must be sold upon returning home.
Chart 3 shows the number and dollar amount in billions approved and reported by the Foreign Investment Review Board (FIRB) of total residential purchases by temporary residents and people overseas for new dwellings. The “Developer Off–The–Plan” category refers to the number of buildings that have been pre–approved, although not all will have necessarily been purchased by overseas residents.
The total value of overseas investment in residential property (which includes the entire value of buildings where 100 percent of dwellings have been pre–approved for overseas buyers, although all of these may not have been taken up) surged tenfold, from $6.09 billion in 2009/10 to $60.75 billion in 2014/15.
Foreign investors have been attracted to Australian property as a means to geographically diversify out of their own country in a stable and transparent market. A lower Australian dollar is likely to have also assisted the rise in foreign demand in 2014/15.
FIRB approvals are likely to have remained elevated in 2015/16, although a number of forces are now coming into play that are seeing the number of overseas purchasers decline:
• Slowing price growth and low residential yields will encourage investment elsewhere;
• Banks have tightened lending policy toward overseas buyers, such as not accepting foreign income in serviceability assessments, and reducing loan–to–value ratios depending on residency status.
• New South Wales, Victoria and Queensland have imposed a surcharge on stamp duty of 3 percent, 4 percent and 7 percent respectively to foreign purchasers. New South Wales also introduced a 0.75 percent land tax surcharge for foreign residential owners, while in Victoria the 0.5 percent absentee owner (primarily foreign owners) land tax surcharge will rise to 1.5 percent from 1 February 2017.
• Tighter capital controls in China, a key source of foreign investment into Australia’s property market, may limit capital outflow and impact investor activity in Australian markets.
The headwinds for foreign investors are expected to have the greatest impact on the new dwelling market, particularly the apartment sector, where substantial pre–sales are required for a project to obtain development finance for construction.
For those that have already purchased off–the–plan, it will become more difficult for foreign investors to settle, particularly if a lower loan–to–value ratio and potential lower valuation requires a significantly higher equity contribution by the purchaser.
If there is an increase is apartments that do not settle, there is likely to be greater downward price pressure in the apartment market as these apartments are placed back onto the market for re–sale, most likely at a lower price.
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Foreign investment may struggle in the future as price growth eases: QBE Housing Outlook

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Since bottoming out in 2011 and 2012 in all states, upgrader demand has strengthened over the last four years and continues to rise, according to QBE's latest housing report.
Upgraders and downsizers have historically represented the largest component of residential demand, being 43% of total residential lending activity in the past 15 years.
This represents two to three times the size of the first home buyer market.
In the year to June 2016, growth in the number of loans to upgraders was 7.1% nationally.
However, upgrader demand varies by state.
Victoria, New South Wales, South Australia, Australian Capital Territory, Queensland and Tasmania saw growth in loans to upgraders during 2015/16.
In contrast, in Western Australia and the Northern Territory the number of loans to upgraders declined in 2015/16, following on from declines in the previous year. Similarly, upgrader loans declined in Tasmania in 2015/16, although this was after growth in 2014/15.
In Western Australia, there was a less significant decline in loans in June quarter 2016, suggesting that the pace of decline is slowing and the market will soon bottom out, whereas in the Northern Territory the number of loans to upgraders experienced a greater annual decline in June quarter 2016.
<a href="/images/2016/10/13/Chart%206.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="/images/2016/10/13/Chart%206.jpg" alt="">
The ABS provides data on residential investment in terms of the value of total loans rather than the number of loans. As a result, changes in the value of loans over time reflect a change in values for property and purchaser volumes.
All states reported double digit decreases in lending for residential investment in 2015/16 after strong annual rises up to the peak in 2014/15. Year on year declines were still being recorded in June quarter 2016.
Investment lending in Victoria, Queensland, Western Australia and Tasmania recorded the smallest annual decline in investment loans in 2015/16.
The Northern Territory and South Australia recorded the highest decline in lending for residential investment during 2015/16.
<a href="/images/2016/10/13/Chart%207.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="/images/2016/10/13/Chart%207.jpg" alt="">
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