Value Growth

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The moderation in the rate of growth across our combined capital cities index in September is likely to be a positive development for Australian regulators such as the Reserve Bank and APRA who have been highlighting concerns about the strong rate of value growth in Sydney and Melbourne.
Of course it is only one month and it will be interesting to see whether the slowing trend will persist, particularly as we head into the busy spring selling season. 
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The annual expansion in investor-related housing credit has continued at a pace that is higher than APRA’s mandated 10% growth per annum however, July figures from the Reserve Bank show credit for investment housing has increased by 10.8% over the year, down from growth of 11.1% the previous month.
Furthermore, in June investor housing credit rose by 0.6% which was its slowest monthly increase since October 2013. With many banks now placing a premium on investment mortgage interest rates and also increasing serviceability limits on all mortgages we may be starting to see the first evidence of a cooling in investment housing demand.
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The cumulative effect of tighter lending conditions, more expensive mortgage rates for investors and lower yields, as well as natural affordability constraints and higher levels of new housing supply, is likely to dampen some of the exuberance we have seen across the Sydney and Melbourne housing market. Listing numbers are already showing their seasonal spring climb which will provide a timely test of the housing markets strength through spring.
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Furthermore auction clearance rates have been trending lower in both Sydney and Melbourne over the past couple of months potentially highlighting a moderation in the rate of home value growth in these cities.
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Cameron Kusher is research analyst for CoreLogic RP Data. You can contact him <a href="https://blog.corelogic.com.au/author/cameron-kusher/" target="_blank">here</a>.
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Potential cooling in investment housing demand: Cameron Kusher 

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Over the 10 years to January 2016, home values across the combined capital cities have increased by a total 72.0% which is well short of values doubling over the decade. 
If we look at the split between houses and units, house values are 73.1% higher compared to a 64.3% increase in unit values.
Although combined capital city home values haven’t doubled over the past decade, the previous decade was quite a different story. Between January 1996 and January 2006 combined capital city home values increased by 151.7% with house values up 159.6% and unit values 110.1% higher. Based on this data, the most recent decade of capital city home value growth has been half that of the previous decade. 
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At a combined capital city level, the index is weighted so it is therefore heavily influenced by the performance of the larger capital cities. Taking a look at value growth over the past decade across individual capital cities shows a diversity in results.
Melbourne is the only capital city housing market where home values doubled over the past decade. In fact, many cities are a long way from having doubled with values in Brisbane, Adelaide, Perth, Hobart and Canberra having all increased by less than 50% over the past decade. Home values in Sydney and Darwin have each recorded increases of more than 75% over the past decade however, they too fell well short of seeing values double over the decade.
Over the previous decade (10 years to January 2006) home values more than doubled across each capital city (note that Hobart values are for houses only and data is not available for Darwin). 
In fact, value growth over the previous decade was more than three times greater than over the most recent decade in Brisbane, Adelaide, Perth, Hobart and Canberra while nationally it was more than double the rate of value growth over the past 10 years. Even Sydney and Melbourne recorded much stronger home value growth over the previous decade compared to the past decade. 
Looking at value growth over the five years to January 2016, it looks unlikely that by the time January 2021 rolls around that home values would have doubled over the decade in any of the capital cities. Over the past five years, Sydney and Melbourne are the only capital cities in which home values have increased by more than 10% with values lower in Hobart and Darwin.
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While there was a time when home values doubled over a 10 year period the data suggests that the days of such rapid value rises are behind us. It’s important to remember that in recent times we have had record low mortgage rates yet that has failed to spark any substantial home value growth outside of Sydney and Melbourne. 
With little wage growth and ongoing economic uncertainty it is clear that in most areas of the country there are limits to what people can pay for housing. Subsequently there has been little impetus for any significant value growth outside of the two largest capital cities. Even in Sydney and Melbourne value growth has been substantially lower over the past decade than over the previous decade.
Cameron Kusher is research analyst for CoreLogic RP Data. You can contact him <a href="https://blog.corelogic.com.au/about/" target="_blank">here</a>.
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Property values – do they double every decade? Cameron Kusher

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GUEST OBSERVER
The CoreLogic Quarterly Housing &amp; Economic Review is a breakdown of the activity across each of the capital cities over the quarter to June 2017 and also dives into the economic factors that contribute to the overall performance of the market.
June 2017 marked the fifth anniversary of the current housing market growth phase. Over the second quarter of 2017, combined capital city dwelling values had increased by 0.8% which was their slowest quarterly growth rate since December 2015.
The June quarter has historically shown seasonal weakness, however, despite a slower rate of growth over the quarter, the combined capital cities still recorded value growth of 9.6% over the past 12 months. With values continuing to rise, the total value of residential property nationally was estimated at $7.1 trillion at the end of the quarter.
Sydney and Melbourne were the only capital cities to have recorded double-digit value growth over the past year with values increasing by 12.2% and 13.7% respectively. Although values have risen swiftly in these two cities over the year, the annual trend rate of growth has slowed since the March 2017 quarter.
Across the remaining capital cities, values have increased over the past year in Brisbane (2.0%), Adelaide (2.4%), Hobart (6.8%) and Canberra (9.6%) while values are lower in Perth (-1.7%) and Darwin (-7.0%).
In 2008 during the financial crisis, combined capital city dwelling values fell by around 6%. The combination of state and federal government stimulus and aggressive cuts to the cash rate by the Reserve Bank saw values rise from the end of 2008 and since then, over two growth cycles, combined capital city dwelling values have increased by 69.8%.
The rates of growth since 2008 have been substantially greater in Sydney (110.9%) and Melbourne (95.3%) than across all other capital cities. Canberra (39.1%) is the only other capital city to have seen values rise by more than 20% since the end of 2008. Growth in Sydney and Melbourne has been due to a range of factors, including but not limited to: rapid population growth, much stronger economic conditions driving employment growth and a relatively low supply of established stock available for sale.
The ongoing rises in home values are being supported by a low cost of borrowing.
As values have increased over recent years, so too has supply with new housing construction, particularly construction of units, recently passing through a new historically high level. New construction activity has been driven by the low cost of borrowing and the elevated level of activity from the investor segment of the market, including demand emanating from overseas.
It is reasonable to conclude that many of the new units constructed in particular, have been purchased by investors. It has also been widely reported that the level of purchasing by offshore buyers has increased dramatically over recent years which has also supported the heightened level of new housing construction. The surge in unit construction is already leading to units increasing in value at a slower pace than houses across a number of capital cities.
Although new housing construction has started to slow, a substantial volume of units remain under construction and will continue to ensure completions remain elevated over the next few years.
A year ago the rental market was showing clear signs of slowing with the surge of new housing stock causing rental growth to slow. Over the past nine to 12 months, rental growth has started to pick-up noticeably. It is difficult to know exactly what has driven this however, rapid population growth and the sheer lack of affordability of owning a home are most likely drivers.
Furthermore, the rising popularity of AirBNB is potentially resulting in some level of stock removal from the long-term rental market and increasing supply in the short-term market. Additionally, as mortgage rates edge higher, particularly for investment mortgages, it is likely that landlords will be doing their best to recoup their higher cost of debt by pushing rents higher.
Capital city dwelling values have now been rising for five years and the rate of growth in Sydney and Melbourne has been significantly greater than that outside of these two cities. While lower mortgage rates have improved mortgage serviceability, for those that don’t own a home it is increasingly difficult for them to firstly save a large enough deposit and secondly to compete with the equity that current home owners have built over recent years.
The housing market conditions prevalent in Sydney and Melbourne are not prevalent across the rest of the country however, these cities are being supported by strong economic and demographic conditions which are fuelling mortgage demand.
Mortgage rates have clearly played a role in driving housing demand in Sydney and Melbourne but the relatively weaker economic conditions outside of these two cities have dampened housing demand elsewhere. With affordability becoming stretched we are seeing increasing pushes for housing market reform from Government. These calls are expected to only grow louder the longer the current growth conditions persist.
Cameron Kusher is research analyst for CoreLogic. You can contact him <a href="https://blog.corelogic.com.au/about/">here</a>.
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Sydney, Melbourne record double-digit value growth

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COVID-19 pressures on the real estate industry has seen the nationally dwelling value growth slow over April, according to data firm CoreLogic's Hedonic Home Value Index.
Nationally, the monthly pace of growth more than halved, dropping from 0.7 per cent in March to 0.3 per cent in April, the smallest month to month movement since June last year when values started rebounding.
Despite many forecasters predicting widespread declines, dwelling values only dropped in Melbourne and Hobart, down -0.3 per cent and -0.1 per cent respectively.
Sydney kept a firm hold of the strongest real estate market, with dwelling values up 0.4 per cent to be 14.3 per cent up annually. Adelaide's 0.4 per cent growth in April saw their annual value growth rise to six per cent.
The surprise figure was in the Northern Territory where the dwindling Darwin market, with values down -2.7 per cent annually, jumped 1.7 per cent over the month.
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CoreLogic head of research Tim Lawless said that although housing values were generally slightly positive over the month, the trend has clearly weakened since mid-to-late March, when social distancing policies were implemented and consumer sentiment started to plummet.”
Sydney's April gains were driven largely by the unit market, up 0.6 per cent, compared to houses up the 0.3 per cent.
Melbourne too saw a stronger performance from their unit market, up 0.1 per cent, while their housing values was down -0.4 per cent.
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Lawless says Australia’s largest cities have a higher level of downside risk.
“Sydney and Melbourne arguably show a higher risk profile relative to other markets due to their large exposure to overseas migration as a source of housing demand, along with greater exposure to the downturn in foreign students, stretched housing affordability and already low rental yields that are likely to reduce further on the back of rising vacancy rates and lower rents," Lawless says.
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Hobart was the only other major region to record a decline in home values over the month
“Hobart has the most exposure of any capital city, at least proportionally, to the industry sectors most heavily impacted by COVID-19 in terms of employment, with 12.7% of the workforce employed within accommodation &amp; food services, and arts &amp; recreation services sectors," Lawless added. 
 
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House values still on the up, but not in Melbourne and Hobart: CoreLogic April update

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There has been a 1.2% rise in national dwelling values over the month, the fourth straight month of rising values, according to the CoreLogic Home Value Index results for October.
The October result was the largest month-on-month gain in the national index since May 2015. The recent gains come after a broad-based decline in housing values, with the national index declining 8.4% between October 2017 and June 2019.
CoreLogic noted that the positive October result takes national dwelling values 2.9% off their June 2019 floor, however values remain 5.7% below their peak, highlighting that despite the recent gains, home values are at a similar level to where they were three years ago.
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2019/11/1/CL%20Index%20Results%20OCT.JPG" alt="">
 
The strongest growth conditions continue to be centered in Melbourne and Sydney, however dwelling values trended higher across most of the capital cities.
Dwelling values were up across every capital city apart from Perth over the month, and over the past three months, the only capitals where values fell were Perth (-1.7%) and Darwin (-1.2%).
According to CoreLogic research director Tim Lawless, the stronger rebound in Melbourne and Sydney can be attributed to a blend of factors; tighter labour market conditions and stronger population growth relative to the other capitals, coupled with the stimulatory effect of the lowest mortgage rates since the 1950’s, and improved access to credit.
He said Stamp duty exemptions for first home buyers purchasing under specific price points have added additional stimulus to housing demand.
Melbourne housing values have recovered 6.0% since moving through a trough in May 2019, while Sydney values are up 5.3% since the recent May low. 
CoreLogic's October report said, "the downwards trend in Perth and Darwin home values has continued, however both markets are showing an improvement in the trend rate of decline."
"Both cities have seen dwelling values consistently trending lower since mid-2014, with Darwin down a cumulative 31% and Perth values 22% lower."
"Perth is now recording the lowest median house value of any capital city ($451,800) and Darwin house values are a close second with a median of $468,300."
"Unsurprisingly, the Northern Territory and Western Australia are also showing the highest proportion of first home buyer activity, with first time buyers not weighed down by negative equity and with the ability to take advantage of very affordable housing in these regions," it concluded.
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Fourth month of property price growth, up 2.9% since June lows: CoreLogic

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Sydney and Melbourne property markets have continued their bounce back following the near two year decline.
Sydney dwelling values saw 1.6 per cent gains over August to be 1.9 per cent up over the quarter.
Melbourne's 1.8 per cent quarterly gains were driven by the 1.4 per cent growth in August.
Over July, Sydney and Melbourne both recorded <a href="https://www.urban.com.au/news/102110-perth-downturn-continues-but-sydney-and-melbourne-continue-resurgance-corelogic" target="_blank">just 0.2 per cent dwelling value growth</a>.
It's the third consecutive month the two markets have seen dwelling value growth after the <a href="https://www.urban.com.au/news/100518-sydney-and-melbourne-housing-downturn-weakening-to-a-halt" target="_blank">slowdown weakened to a halt over June</a>.
Corelogic research director Tim Lawless said that although the recovery trend in the nations two biggest capital city markets continues to strengthen, the expectation is that it will take some time for values to return back to their previous highs.
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There was growth in five of the eight capital cities. Canberra was the third best performer with gains of 0.8 per cent, followed by Hobart (0.5 per cent) and Brisbane (0.2 per cent).
Declines were felt in Darwin (-1.2 per cent), Perth (-0.5 per cent) and Adelaide (-0.2 per cent.)
It was the second consecutive month national capital city values jumped, following from a <a href="https://www.urban.com.au/news/102110-perth-downturn-continues-but-sydney-and-melbourne-continue-resurgance-corelogic" target="_blank">0.1 per cent gain over July</a>.
It was the unit markets in Sydney (+1.8 per cent) and Melbourne (+1.5 per cent) which drove the growth.
They were closely followed by houses, where Sydney saw 1.5 per cent gains and Melbourne 1.3 per cent.
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Lawless suggested while the ‘recovery trend’ is still early, it does appear that growth trends are gathering some pace, particularly in the largest capital cities.
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“The significant lift in values over the month aligns with a consistent increase in auction clearance rates and a deeper pool of buyers at a time when the volume of stock advertised for sale remains low.
“It’s likely that buyer demand &amp; confidence is responding to the positive effect of a stable federal government, as well lower interest rates, tax cuts and a subtle easing in credit policy.” 
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Sydney and Melbourne house and apartment prices power ahead in August: CoreLogic

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Combined capital city home values have increased by 7.6 percent over the year with Melbourne topping the national list with annual capital gains of 11.1 percent, according to coreLogic RP Data's February Hedonic Home Value Index.
CoreLogic RP Data research director Tim Lawless said Melbourne values appear to be holding reasonably firm since December last year with the annual rate of capital gain virtually level over the past three months.
"Sydney’s annual rate of growth has continued to moderate, having almost halved from its cyclical peak of 18.4% recorded in July last year to reach 9.5% growth over the past twelve months.
"A few of the smaller cities, where growth rates have recently accelerated, may start to rival Sydney’s position over the coming months.
“The trend in home value growth is showing signs of increasing in those markets that have previously underperformed. These include Brisbane, Adelaide, Hobart and Canberra. Affordability constraints aren’t as apparent in these cities and rental yields haven’t been compressed to the same extent as what they have in Melbourne or Sydney.
"Home values increased in Brisbane by 5.5% over the past year, which is the fastest annual rate of value growth in a year. In Hobart, home values are 6.2% higher over the year, which is its fastest annual rate of home value growth since July 2010."
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Melbourne tops city annual capital gains: CoreLogic RP Data

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House rents have increased 2.1% across Melbourne for the year with houses in the Mornington Peninsula and Bayside making up the majority of the top five regions for rental increases throughout the year, according to CoreLogic RP Data's September Monthly Rental Report.
CoreLogic RP Data senior research analyst Cameron Kusher said at the same time that Mornington Peninsula suburbs feature prominently on the list this area of Melbourne has been one of the weakest performing regions for value growth over recent years. 
 
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The median house price for a home in <a href="https://www.urban.com.au/property-observer" target="_blank">Black Rock is $1,585,000</a>, according to CoreLogic RP Data.
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