Sydney Property

Setting a new benchmark for residential developments in Western Sydney, Auburn Square is the latest development delivered by property developers Tian An.

From its roots as one of Australia&rsquo;s oldest listed property developers, then known as Port Bouvard, Tian An has grown to deliver quality residential projects.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=7317 project_image_fid=79239]

Auburn Square has been designed for ultimate day-to-day liveability, with its precinct vision largely inspired by the nearby Auburn Botanical Gardens.

Designed by Rothelowman, the development features 2,000sqm of green space, an impressive rooftop garden, outdoor fitness area, film projector and screen and barbeque space.

Each apartment features contemporary design elements, high-end finishes and premium inclusions.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=7317 project_image_fid=79247]

Situated a three-minute walk from Auburn Central, the tower is located within a vibrant village and is just moments from transport to take you to the Parramatta and Sydney CBDs.

Retail spaces are located along the ground floor level of Northumberland Rd, connecting directly to Auburn Town Centre.

Urban takes a look at three of the featured floorplans available at Auburn Square.

1. One-Bed

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This one-bedroom floorplan is one of the many configurations available at Auburn Square, delivering one bedroom, one bathroom and a car space.

Boasting an internal area of 50sqm to 63sqm, the homes feature an open-plan kitchen, living and dining area, with a choice of light or contrast colour schemes. 
[smartcode_project:default project_id=7317 project_image_fid=79242]

SMEG appliances can be found throughout the kitchen and most one-bedroom apartments feature island benches.

Auburn Square&rsquo;s contemporary design also sees feature walls in the kitchen, a balcony and a built-in robe in the bedroom.

2. Two-Bed

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The two-bedroom apartment floorplan shown above displays a two-bedroom, two-bathroom apartment, also featuring a parking space. &nbsp;

Two-bedders boast an internal size between 75sqm and 88sqm, as well as a balcony for outdoor entertaining.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=7317 project_image_fid=79240]

Residents have the option to include a bathroom in the contemporary residence.

Most two-bedroom apartments include storage rooms, while the master bedroom includes an ensuite and walk-in robe.

3. Three-Bed

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The family-sized, three-bedroom residence is the largest offering at Auburn Square, set over an internal area of 96sqm to 110sqm.

Each bedroom offers sliding doors to the extensive balcony, providing abundant light throughout the day that opens up the space.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=7317 project_image_fid=79250]

The apartment featured delivers walk-in robes, an open-plan living and dining area, as well as a generously sized laundry.

The apartment includes storage rooms, parking space and SMEG appliances in the kitchen with the optional upgrade to Westinghouse.

[smartcode_project_cta: project_id=7317]

Urban takes a look at three of the featured floorplans available at Auburn Square

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Floorplan focus: The various apartment configurations at Western Sydney’s Auburn Square

With Sydney&#39;s luxury market proving resilient, many buyers are seeing the benefit of investing in a high-end development at affordable prices because downsizing does not mean downgrading.

Whether your children have moved out or you&#39;re wanting to save money, downsizing provides a great option for couples of all ages.

Below are five of the best downsizer apartments on the market in Sydney to help you on your journey towards finding a new home.

1. Bloom Arncliffe 
Developer: Wingate 
Two-bedroom apartments from $699,000

[smartcode_project:default project_id=6201 project_image_fid=89013]

Offering one, two and three-bedroom apartments across seven state-of-the-art buildings, Bloom is the latest development to hit Arncliffe.

Placed in a prime position between the city and the coast, residents enjoy the benefits of being close to Sydney&rsquo;s southern beaches, as well as the Illawarra line&rsquo;s direct link to the CBD, the Inner West and Bondi.

Designed by EJE Architecture, the home features spacious island benches, walk-in pantries, spacious floorplans, and entertaining space.

2. Auburn Square, Auburn 
Developer: Tian An 
Two-bedroom apartments from $615,000

[smartcode_project:default project_id=7317 project_image_fid=79239]

Auburn is a hub of connectivity situated in the geographical heart of Sydney, offering the benefits of suburban living, with great transport accessibility to business centres including Parramatta and the CBD.

Auburn Square has been designed for ultimate day-to-day liveability.&nbsp;Its precinct vision is largely inspired by the nearby Auburn Botanical Gardens,&nbsp;aiming&nbsp;to connect residents and foster a community feel.

Designed by Rothelowman, the development features 2,000sqm of green space, an impressive rooftop garden, outdoor fitness area, film projector and screen and barbeque space.

3. Eminence, Zetland 
Developer: Meriton 
One-bedroom apartments from $745,000

[smartcode_project:default project_id=21882 project_image_fid=71328]

Eminence is a trio of boutique buildings commanding four street frontages nestled between the transformational Green Square precinct and the CBD.

As well as 1,840sqm of lush podium gardens, the development by Meriton offers luxurious five-star amenities for year-round resort enjoyment.

Directly across from your home at Eminence, Gunyama Park Aquatic and Recreation Centre features beach-inspired pools, open-air training facilities, boardwalks and playgrounds.

4. Arcadia, North Lane Cove 
Developer: Dasco Australia 
Price for two-bedroom apartments available upon request

[smartcode_project:default project_id=6912 project_image_fid=153916]

Close by Chatswood&rsquo;s commercial, entertainment and dining offerings and the thriving Lane Cove Village, Arcadia is a sophisticated and elegant residence on Sydney&rsquo;s Lower North Shore.

Boasting rooftop gardens, a gym, barbeque areas and a dedicated workspace lounge, the development boasts great amenities for downsizers and first-home buyers alike.

Designed by PSEC Project Services, Arcadia residences include floor-to-ceiling sliding glass doors and abundant natural light, while some residences boast dual terraces and balcony access from the master bedroom.

5. Destination, Macquarie Park 
Developer: Meriton 
One-bedroom apartments from $600,000

[smartcode_project:default project_id=8669 project_image_fid=71739]

Located within NSW&rsquo;s second-largest business district, Destination offers lots of opportunities to downsizers hoping to take advantage of Macquarie Park&rsquo;s competitive advantages.

Delivered by Meriton and designed by DKO Architecture, Destination offers serene garden terraces, timeless design and views from every angle.

The development provides large apartment layouts with house-like proportions, tailored materials and classic detailing.

A look at five downsizer apartments on the market in Sydney to help you on your journey towards finding a new home

Downsizing does not mean downgrading: Sydney’s best downsizer apartments on the market today

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<img src="https://counter.theconversation.edu.au/content/77959/count.gif?distributor=republish-lightbox-advanced" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1">
GUEST OBSERVER
Sydneysiders are concerned that foreign investors, and particularly Chinese real estate investors, are pushing up housing prices, according to survey findings published this month. 
A majority believed foreign investors should not be allowed to buy residential real estate in Sydney.
The federal budget was the government’s latest attempt at navigating a policy solution that supports its pro-foreign investment position while responding to public concern about housing affordability in Australian cities.
China’s government is also searching for a policy solution to restrict the large amount of capital that’s flowing out of the country. But the Chinese crackdown “doesn’t appear to be working”.
We surveyed almost 900 Sydneysiders to investigate their views on foreign real estate investment. The effectiveness of government regulations on foreign investment and investors was a major concern for respondents.
Views on government regulations
The survey obtained the views of people aged over 18 living in the Greater Sydney region. They were asked about housing affordability, foreign investment, the drivers of Sydney housing prices, and perceptions of Chinese investors specifically.
Support for the government’s regulation of foreign investment in housing was weak. Only 17% of respondents thought it was effective.
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/05/30/Screen%20Shot%202017-05-31%20at%209.10.10%20AM.png" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2017/05/30/Screen%20Shot%202017-05-31%20at%209.10.10%20AM.png" alt="">
 
Source: Public Perceptions of Foreign and Chinese Real Estate Investment: Intercultural Relations in Global Sydney
Almost 56 percent of participants believed foreign investors should not be allowed to buy residential real estate in Sydney. Only 18 percent believed this should be permitted.
More than 63 percent of participants disagreed that the “government should encourage more foreign investment in greater Sydney’s housing market”. Only 12 percent of participants agreed with this.
These views stand in stark contrast to the government’s geopolitical support for foreign investment in Australia.
Views on foreign investors
There is little fine-grained data about the impacts of foreign capital and investors on specific neighbourhoods and developments in Australian cities. Therefore, we did not set out to compare public attitudes against the limited empirical evidence on the effects of foreign real estate investment in Sydney.
What’s significant about the survey results is that Sydneysiders have strong views on foreign investment, despite the absence of reliable evidence. Participants’ concerns about foreign investors and investment were consistent with their concerns about the government’s foreign investment rules.
Around 63 percent of Sydneysiders identified the Chinese as the heavyweights of foreign investment. This is likely to be accurate, given the concentration of Chinese investment in Sydney and Melbourne.
When presented with the statement “I welcome Chinese foreign investors buying properties in my suburb”, more than 48 percent of participants disagreed.
Other studies, however, have shown the potential for public confusion between domestic Australian-Chinese and international Chinese buyers.
Views on the drivers of housing prices
Respondents were asked to choose up to three drivers of house prices based on their understanding of Sydney’s housing market. By far the most commonly nominated driver of house prices (64 percent of respondents) was foreign investors buying housing.
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/05/30/Screen%20Shot%202017-05-31%20at%209.11.43%20AM.png" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2017/05/30/Screen%20Shot%202017-05-31%20at%209.11.43%20AM.png" alt="">
Source: Public perceptions of foreign and Chinese real estate investment: intercultural relations in Global Sydney 
Roughly one in three survey participants saw low interest rates (37 percent of respondents) and domestic home owners (32 percent) and investors (32 percent) as the drivers of higher housing prices. Local housing analysts generally agree with this.
But more than three in four participants (78 percent) agreed with the statement:
Foreign investment is driving up housing prices in greater Sydney.
When framed inversely, as “Foreign investment has no impact or very small impact on greater Sydney’s housing market”, more than two-thirds of participants (68 percent) disagreed with the statement.
Only 6 percent of our participants disagreed that foreign investment was increasing real estate prices. Around 11 percent agreed that foreign investment had no or minimal impact.
Views on housing supply and affordability
We expected people to report that foreign people and capital are driving up housing prices and making it more difficult for Australians to compete in the housing market. But we were surprised by the findings about Sydneysiders’ views on foreign capital and housing supply.
A strong message from the real estate and property development industries is that foreign investment increases housing supply, which in turn puts downward pressure on prices.
Politicians and lobby groups argue this will help improve housing affordability in major Australian cities. But many housing analysts argue that this supply solution does not stack up for purchases made by either foreign or domestic investors.
It seems that Sydneysiders don’t accept the real estate industry message about foreign investors increasing housing supply, and therefore helping to ease housing affordability pressures.
When asked if “Foreign investment can help increase housing supply in greater Sydney”, 48% of participants disagreed with the statement. Another 25% “neither disagreed or agreed”.
An unresolved policy dilemma
The government’s dilemma is how to manage foreign investment alongside an increasing housing affordability problem in major Australian cities.
This month’s federal budget included a crackdown on foreign investors, but the government still supports foreign real estate investment.
Our survey results support other studies that suggest this pro-foreign investment stance must be accompanied by strategies to protect intercultural community relations. This must happen alongside efforts to improve housing affordability.
 
<a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/dallas-rogers-5269" target="_blank"></a>
<a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/dallas-rogers-5269" target="_blank">Dallas Rogers</a> is Senior Lecturer, Faculty of Architecture, Design and Planning, University of Sydney.
<a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/dallas-rogers-5269" target="_blank"></a>
<a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/alexandra-wong-378393" target="_blank">Alexandra Wong </a>is Engaged Research Fellow, Institute for Culture and Society, Western Sydney University. <a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/jacqueline-nelson-134741" target="_blank">Jacqueline Nelson</a> is Chancellor's Postdoctoral Research Fellow, University of Technology Sydney.
<a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/dallas-rogers-5269" target="_blank"></a>
All are authors for The Conversation.
<a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/dallas-rogers-5269" target="_blank"> </a>
 
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jchancellor-FAypfDUnLy

Sydneysiders blame foreign investors for high housing prices – survey

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Housing price growth of between 4 and 6 percent is expected for 2017 for both detached houses and apartments supported by strong population growth and limited signs of oversupply according to Paul Bloxham, HSBC chief economist.
He said apartment prices are expected to track at a slower pace than detached houses. 
"In the detached house market there is only modest growth in new supply expected," he said.
<a href="/images/2016/11/25/Screen%20Shot%202016-11-25%20at%201.07.56%20PM.png" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="/images/2016/11/25/Screen%20Shot%202016-11-25%20at%201.07.56%20PM.png" alt="">
"Overall housing price growth should cool somewhat in response to continued tight prudential settings, particularly in the apartment market. 
"Weaker foreign demand, due to a lower RMB, is likely to weigh on the Sydney apartment market. 
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Weaker foreign demand to hit Sydney apartment market: Paul Bloxham's 2017 forecast

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The listed real estate group McGrath has lowered its targeted dividend from 4.5 cents per share to 3 to 3.5 cents per share following a revision to forecast volumes and sales especially in the Sydney residential real estate market.
The agency resumed trading on the ASX at 88 cents Monday morning after pointing out increased property market volatility. The shares have traded at between 85 and 99 cents in morning trade.
Some 2.1 million shares were traded in morning trade, representing the busiest trading since the opening two days last December.
The drop-off has led to a downward revision in revenue forecasts of between $4-5 million, and the profit downgrade.
Postponed project launches by its project division was one of the reason for the revenue decline, with $500,000 coming off its revenues.
McGrath is now expecting north and north-west Sydney listings to be 25-30 per cent lower than prospectus forecasts, largely due to a drop off in the number of Chinese buyers in north-west Sydney.
There was also lost revenue because of delays implementing new IT software, would hit earnings by $500,000.
It  said there would be a continued reduction in Chinese buyer activity in the north western Sydney region.
It expected a 25 per cent to 30 per cent decline in listings in western Sydney compared to what its prospectus forecasts were.
These north western and western factors would hit earnings in the order of $3 million to $4 million.
The shares last traded at $1.30 before entering the trading halt.
"As flagged at the end of the half year, current conditions remain challenging in certain market segments and with listings and sales volumes not expected to materially change in the near term, McGrath has accordingly adjusted its expectations for sales volumes and values for the last quarter of 2016 financial year," the statement said.
"On the basis of the current quarter's listings trend (assuming there is no improvement in listings volumes) and current market conditions, McGrath expects to generate 2016 revenue in the range of $136 million to $140 million, and pro forma EBITDA in the range of $26 million to $27 million," the company said in a statement to the ASX.
The company, whose major shareholders include John McGrath and Perpetual, floated at $2.10 but has never exceeded that price. It last traded at $1.30 on Thursday.  
McGrath's board has determined that it will increase the target payout ratio to 75 per cent of net profit after tax for the fiscal 2016 year.
"This will decrease the target dividend from approximately 4.5 cents per share to 3‐3.5 cents per share for the period."
The main area of concern is revenue from company owned offices acquired before the float from the Smollen Group with its revenue 10 per cent below budget.
However the McGrath update noted that in its prospectus, the acquisition of the Smollen Group was structured so that some of the deferred consideration would not be paid if the business did not meet growth targets set at the time of acquisition. 
"Given the performance of this business as outlined above, the at risk component for 2016 of $2.625 million is therefore unlikely to be paid."
McGrath was floated by Bell Potter and JP Morgan. 
“While current industry volatility makes it challenging to forecast FY17, the long term fundamentals of the real estate industry remain attractive, underpinned by historically low interest rates and population growth,” McGrath says. 
McGrath floated in December raising $129.6 million with no debt.
The prospectus, issued in November, did warned house price growth could slow due to an expected plateau in house sales.
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Slowing apartment project sales to blame as McGrath resumes trading at 88 cents

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GUEST OBSERVER
Office metro markets, like CBD markets, are driven by factors which differ from state to state and region to region, so any discussion of a ‘national’ metro market only serves to mask the various drivers of each of these markets. 
There’s no question that long-overdue Infrastructure investment along the eastern seaboard will be the primary driver of growth in metro markets in the coming decade.
According to Colliers Metro Office Research and Forecast Report- first half 2016, over 33 buildings in Sydney’s metro markets will be compulsorily acquired for the Metro Rail, putting downward pressure on vacancies and upward pressure on rents. In fact, many metro markets are now at a tipping point, with the first real opportunity since the GFC to experience significant growth.
But where will the positive effects be most strongly felt?
NSW is where the strength is
At the moment, the NSW state economy is the strongest in the nation, with robust employment growth and a healthy surplus. It is also the hub for infrastructure development, with projects like the Sydney Metro, WestConnex and the Parramatta Light Rail set to come online in the next 10 years.
The most recent state budget revealed a total spend of $68.6 billion over the next four years alone, a very positive scenario for those metro markets in line to receive infrastructure upgrades.
This is because efficient transport links allow for greater connectivity across all metro markets, and in turn, increase the attractiveness of metro accommodation to a broader tenant base.
In further good news, the stock withdrawal story we are seeing in the Sydney CBD market holds true in a number of other NSW metro markets. Colliers reports that between January 2015 and January 2016, metro office stock decreased Australia-wide from 7.34 million sqm to 7.29 million sqm as a result of withdrawal for residential conversion or infrastructure development.
As the same time, we have not seen the same influx of offshore money into these markets as we have in the major CBD office markets. With offshore investors continuing to favour CBDs, investors in metro markets are still predominately domestic. The proportion of domestic investors, compared with international investors is continuing to grow with Colliers reporting that domestic investors made up 55 percent of the acquisitions in 2013, 60 percent in 2014 and 65 percent in 2015.
Centuria’s ASX-listed Metropolitan REIT invests purely in metropolitan office and industrial assets across Sydney, Brisbane, Canberra and Adelaide. These assets have been valued at $396.7 million. Decreasing vacancies and increasing values have seen this fund trading well amongst both institutional and retail investors, highlighting the investor appetite for metro investment.   
Sydney’s north shore metro markets set to shine
In our view, some of the strongest metro markets are to be found on Sydney’s north shore, where the positive combination of residential conversion with acquisitions made for Metro stations will translate into improved vacancy and rental levels in the next few years.  
For example, fifteen commercial properties will be demolished along the north shore, in to make way for the Sydney Metro. At the same time, all new development is focused on residential accommodation, and with no new commercial development slated we expect a further tightening of supply and upward pressure on commercial rents.
As a result of the positive fundamentals, Centuria recently completed the purchase of part of the Zenith office tower in Chatswood, an area which we see as a major beneficiary of the Sydney Metro. Stage 1 from the northwest to Chatswood is scheduled for completion in 2019, and the second stage from Chatswood to the southwest via the CBD will put Chatswood right at the heart of Sydney’s transport network.
The most recent PCA figures show vacancy rates have dropped back to 6.6 percent in Chatswood which is the lowest vacancy rate for many years. We also expect demand to increase further due to the strong transport links already in place in Chatswood and the absence of any significant increase in supply. 
Looking forward, we are confident that Chatswood status as a major commercial and residential hub will be cemented by the benefits of the major infrastructure spend by the NSW State Government. 
Positive fundamentals in the CBD fringe, particularly in the south
Vacancies continue to fall in the city fringe as a result of leasing growth on the back of demand from tenants displaced by withdrawals for infrastructure and residential projects in both the CBD and locally.
The Southern CBD and fringe areas are undergoing a renaissance on the back of proximity to the rapidly growing residential area of South Sydney as well as demand from tenants displaced by the metro line. This area is particularly popular with advertising and media companies, resulting in over 10,000 sqm of demand in the six months to January 2016, according to Colliers. 
In late 2015, in conjunction with Mirvac, we acquired commercial property within the Australian Technology Park south of Sydney. The site is 14 hectares, three kilometres south of the Sydney CBD on the site of a $1 billion development for CBA, which we believe will have wide-ranging positive impacts on the broader Central to Eveleigh corridor.
So what’s the bottom line?  Our house view is that tenant demand for metro locations will continue to strengthen as CBD vacancy rates fall. Withdrawal of A and B grade stock for residential conversion and/or infrastructure development will leave many tenants in this market seeking cost effective solutions in those suburbs with good (and improving) transport links.
This means markets such as Chatswood, and the southern fringe of the CBD are likely to benefit. We have already taken advantage of a number of opportunities with compelling value, such as our purchase, in conjunction with global investment manager BlackRock, of The Zenith in Chatswood.
Ultimately, we remain convinced that the fundamentals of these metro markets in NSW make them ideally suited to providing stable, high yields and potential for capital growth that our investors have come to expect.
 Jason Huljich is chief executive officer, Unlisted Property Funds for <a href="https://centuria.com.au" target="_blank">Centuria</a>.
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NSW office metro markets set to shine

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GUEST OBSERVER
The six district plans for Metropolitan Sydney must be amended to drive housing supply, says the Urban Taskforce. 
The district plans for Sydney along with the draft amendments to the Metropolitan Strategy contain a shift away from housing supply by reverting to single use zoning to focus on job.
The current Metropolitan Strategy (A Plan for Growing Sydney) clearly sees higher density housing as part of a mixed use approach to Strategic Centres but the draft amendment has removed housing in favour of commercial development.
The current focus by the NSW Government on housing affordability and the need to boost supply in Sydney must be enabled by the Greater Sydney Commission’s plans and how they influence decisions on planning proposals. With councils in Sydney going through an amalgamation process and the fact that it could be two years before Local Environmental Plans are completed it will be the District Plans that will influence planning decisions on new housing proposals. Sydney’s housing crisis needs urgent action.
A further shift away from housing supply has occurred with the use of the ‘precautionary approach’ to the rezoning of employment lands including inner city industrial sites that are becoming redundant. A number of planning proposals to develop mixed use precincts on these sites have been rejected over recent months by the Greater Sydney Commission’s Planning Panels because they do not conform with the draft District Plans.
The Urban Taskforce is concerned that there are now two conflicting planning documents for Sydney that both need to be considered to meet the Strategic Merit test for Planning Proposals. The existing Metropolitan Strategy clearly supports mixed use centres while the draft plans propose single use zoning. The confusion from these two planning documents is leading to significant risk for applicants of planning proposals.
The Greater Sydney Commission (GSC) has produced a significant amount of quality material that outlines the 20 and 40 year visions for Sydney in relation to the major growth that is predicted. There are many parts of the draft plans that contain excellent proposals. The Urban Taskforce’s submission to the GSC acknowledges the extent of the material produced and of the willingness of the commissioners and the staff to consult with the development industry. There are however a number of areas in the plans that we believe need further work and our submission focusses on these.
The Urban Taskforce submission contained 10 key issues which are listed below: 
1. Acknowledgement of the extent of the material
2. The legal status of the draft district plans in relation to ‘a plan for growing sydney’ is uncertain
3. The ‘three-city’ vision for sydney is supported 
4. A clear vision of the future built form of the greater sydney area is needed
5. Developers are increasingly becoming responsible for funding of infrastructure and affordable housing
6. Too many planning decisions are delegated to councils 
7. Housing supply must be given higher priority 
8. Community involvement must relate to the scale of the plan (local, district, metropolitan)
9. A mixed use cosmopolitan character should be promoted 
10. Affordable housing should be provided through an incentive-based system
The Urban Taskforce is keen to be involved in the amendment and refinement of the six District Plans and the Metropolitan Strategy - Towards Our Greater Sydney 2056 through discussions with the GSC.
We will also be producing research publications that add to the continuing dialogue between government, the community and the industry on Sydney’s future.
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The full submission on the Draft District Plans and the Draft Amendment to A Plan for Growing Sydney by the Urban Taskforce is available <a href="https://www.urbantaskforce.com.au/index.php?option=com_phocadownload&amp;view=category&amp;downloa%20d=2180:submission-draft-sydney-district-plans-and-towards-our-greater-sydney-2056&amp;id=2:what-s-%20new&amp;Itemid=141%20" target="_blank">here</a>.
 
Chris Johnson is chief executive officer of property development industry group Urban Taskforce and can be contacted <a href="https://www.urbantaskforce.com.au/index.php?option=com_content&amp;view=article&amp;id=97&amp;Itemid=126#.Vdaart55dFI" target="_blank">here</a>.
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Draft district plans must be amended to help solve Sydney’s housing crisis

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There is little doubt the Sydney auction market has started out a lot better in February, than it finished off last December.
At this stage, four weeks in, the positivity has been more evident from the auction clearance rate being on the rise, than prices making any advances.
February typically suffers none of the inbuilt end of year fatigue. Saturday's preliminary clearance sat at over 70 percent.
You never know, but prices could spurt again, especially if our fresh stock levels stay low after the upcoming early Easter break, and the banks begin to ease up on their lending.
It would not be a second wind for prices, because we've already seen that many times, just when the market seemed destined to head backwards.
Sydney is highly resilient when it comes to property price momentum, often catching forecasters out of step.
I was thinking of the contributing mix, intrinsic and not so, when I popped a few questions to Harry Dent, one of the world’s most controversial economic futurists.
He is currently touring Australia. Last time he toured in 2014, Dent's worst case scenario was for a post-China bubble burst impacting on Sydney with property prices possibly set to collapse by as much as 60 percent.
His controversial forecasts were labelled as scaremongering by many commentators including Chris Joye.
Dent's earlier 2011 crash forecast also saw the founder of wealth manager Yellow Brick Road Mark Bouris counter the claims. 
In 2011 on David Koch’s Sunrise program, Dent urged viewers to sell their homes before the 50 percent crash in prices arrived at their doorsteps after a China crash hits our shores.
He will be pursuing the same message this time around.
I told Dent that dwelling prices in Sydney now sit at around a $895,000 median, up from $610,000 in early 2014.
The median represents a significant 46 percent rise since Dent's last warning, and an 80 percent rise since his 2011 warning.
Pressed by me, Dent admits he was wrong through he sticks to the yet-to-occur outcome, merely adjusting the timing of his dire forecast.
"I was wrong, how about that," he said.
"I'm early."
Australia will burst whenever the China bubble bursts, he says.
Dent warns many won't see it coming, and adds that real estate, unlike the stockmarket, won't have any easy escape route, and its recovery will take much longer.
"This is not a normal bubble," he suggests noting the global real estate bubble had extended well beyond typical lengths.
He argues the global bubble has been caused by central banks printing money, not just low interest rates.
Dent says suggests central banks can't keep printing money for ever.
"What's not different is by every measure, is these are bubbles.
"Chinese real estate is a bubble.
"The Sydney real estate is a bubble." 
"Better to get out a little early," he will be telling his 2018 audiences.
This article was first published in the Saturday Daily Telegraph
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Harry Dent says he was early with his dire Sydney price collapse forecast

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EXPERT OBSERVER
Media portrays Sydney as a market of universal and relentless decline, but our analysis shows there’s a lot more to the story. While sales activity and prices are down generally, there are many different scenarios playing out across the Greater Sydney Area. 
In Hotspotting’s latest quarterly survey of sales activity, we can find only three suburbs where sales activity is trending higher, but there are 90 suburbs with steady, consistent sales and a similar number of plateau markets (where activity has dropped from the peak but remains at solid levels).
And there are 61 suburbs classified as decline markets and 14 which we regard as danger markets, with the Sydney City, Parramatta, Bayside and Canterbury-Bankstown LGAs heading the list of markets to avoid.
Our analysis of 416 suburban markets in the Greater Sydney Area shows that 77% of them have median prices lower than a year so, while 23% have higher prices. Given the negative sensation about Sydney in mainstream media, many people would be surprised to learn that there are 95 Sydney markets where prices are not falling.
That includes 36 where median prices have risen by more than 5%, led by the top end of the Sydney market (suburbs with median prices above $2 million). Suburbs with median house prices above $2 million have recorded trend-defying growth, including Bellevue Hill (up 17%), Vaucluse (15%), Collaroy (22%), Palm Beach (17%), Artarmon (28%), Abbotsford (16%), Darling Point (12%) and Neutral Bay (17%), among others.
In another interesting trend that defies the general media rhetoric, there are 44 suburbs where the median house price is down but the media apartment price is up. This reflects the reality that many of the Sydney markets where prices have continued to grow against the overall trend are apartment precincts – it’s not happening across the board, but it’s a significant sub-plot in the Sydney market.
Our analysis of the Sydney market shows why the generalisations prevalent in media are so misleading for consumers. This Autumn survey has given ratings to 258 Sydney suburbs: 3 rising, 90 plateau, 90 consistency, 61decline and 14 danger markets. The absence of growth markets and the dominance of struggling ones is the over-riding trend, but there are other stories to be told in the Sydney market.
The strongest precincts are those that are displaying stubborn consistency of sales activity in the face of the general downturn.
The Sutherland LGA has two of only three rising suburbs (Jannali and Kirrawee), as well as five plateau and four consistency suburbs. The median price for Jannali units has risen 22% in the past year, while Kirrawee houses are up 3%. It’s notable that median prices for units have risen in many Sutherland suburbs, including Caringbah, Cronulla, Caringbah South, Gymea and Miranda, as well as Jannali.
Other precincts that are showing solidity, with plenty of consistency and plateau suburbs (and no decline or danger markets), including LGAs at the more affordable end of the market like Blacktown, Camden, Penrith, Wollondilly and Campbelltown.
The Blacktown LGA has one rising, three plateau and 10 consistency suburbs. A characteristic of this market is that median prices are down, but only a few percent in most suburbs – including Plumpton (-2%), Ropes Crossing (-2.3%), Schofields (-1.2%), Marsden Park (-0.4%), Blacktown units (-2%) and Mt Druitt units (-2.8%).
Other solid markets include the LGAs of Inner west, Northern Beaches, North Sydney,  Woollahra, Randwick and Fairfield.
Inner West suburbs where median prices are higher than a year ago include Annandale (units), Camperdown, Lilyfield, Rozelle (units), Dulwich Hill (units) and Stanmore (units).
Standout price performances in the steady Northern Beaches precinct include Collaroy, Narrabeen, Avalon Beach, Manly (units), Seaforth (units) and Newport (units).
The weakest precincts of the Sydney market are the LGAs of Parramatta, Sydney City, Bayside and Canterbury-Bankstown.
Parramatta has six suburbs which we classify as danger markets: those where sales activity is sharply down, prices are falling and vacancies are high. These suburbs are Carlingford, Epping, North Parramatta, Parramatta, Wentworth Point and Rosehill. This LGA also has six suburbs ranked as decline markets.
Median prices are down sharply for North Parramatta houses (20%), Parramatta houses (30%), and Rosehill units (22%).
Sydney City has seven declining suburbs and two danger markets (Haymarket and Waterloo).
The Canterbury-Bankstown LGA has nine suburbs classified as declining markets, based on a sharp decrease in sales activity over the past 12-18 months: Bankstown, Belmore, Campsie, Canterbury, Croydon Park, Lakemba, Padstow, Panania and Roselands.
Terry Ryder is the founder of hotspotting.com.au
<a href="https://mailto:ryder@hotspotting.com.au">ryder@hotspotting.com.au</a>
twitter.com/hotspotting
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What's really going on in the Sydney real estate market? Hotspotting's Terry Ryder

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Quite remarkable that the Lower North Shore property markets are showing no signs of slowing as we edge closer to Christmas.
What is very clear is that all but guarantees another very strong March quarter for 2017, where beyond that would be anyone’s guess.
Whilst many expect that the Reserve Bank of Australia will cut the cash rate in the next six months we are now starting to witness some small Australian lenders increasing their rates which sends a loud signal that we may now be witnessing the end of the low rates. I made a phone call and was advised that ING have the lowest rate presently at 3.84 percent over five years fixed. ME head of home loans, Patrick Nolan, said: “The increases were based on increasing swap rates – up 40 basis points since the end of August – and increasing cost of deposit funding.”
Yes, there will be casualties, more particularly the interest only borrowers. I read a sage quote by a banker on Twitter who said: “If anyone is taking out a 20 – year mortgage and they don’t believe rates will rise, I’d ask them if they should be making this investment. It is an unrealistic proposition,” he said.
What needs to be factored in is that wages rose by 1.9 per cent during the September quarter, which was a record low according to the Australian Bureau of Statistics.
The NSW Government’s property development arm known as the Greater Sydney Commission released this week the first draft for the five – year housing targets by Local Government Area. A total of 23,250 new properties have been approved, with Mosman to build 300 new properties and North Sydney 3,000 and the Northern Beaches an additional 3,400.
<a href="/images/2016/11/28/Draft-Districts.png" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="/images/2016/11/28/Draft-Districts.png" alt="">
 
I really find this quite intriguing with present data suggesting that Sydney is now facing an imminent over – supply. NSW is in the process of building 55,000 new apartments with thousands more on the planning desks awaiting approval.
As these apartments are completed this will be a significant lever in reducing rents. When I look at Mosman I observed from CoreLogic that the rental median for a house in Mosman is $1,600.00 per week which is a 16.4 per cent increase over the last five years. The rental median for an apartment is $580.00 per week which is a 16.0 per cent increase over the last five years.
From an economic perspective, this is good news for NSW as it will drive employment as well as productivity. Property investors need to look closely at where their respective investment properties are within the Local Government Areas to ascertain what impact this unprecedented apartment building bonanza will have. One would have to say that in the short – term in the case of Mosman that apartment rents will be coming down. Even more so in North Sydney as they have a massive 3,000 apartments to be built over Mosman’s 300. For the fortunate ones if you own a residential development because it just doubled and trebled in value with the new high density legislation.
What needs to be acknowledged is this is what we call the new market and should not be confused with the established housing market as we are building apartments not houses. Although one point that springs to mind is that investors will be forced to renovate existing apartments if they are going to compete in the market on a rental dollar basis as they will be up against brand new apartments.
The building industry has never seen a better future although little consideration has been given to existing property owners who must contend with greater traffic congestion on our roads. So, if you thought our roads are congested now this week’s announcement will only make the situation worse.
Over time this will see more businesses moving to the suburbs, so a smart town planner must be marinating these development sites with a combination of commercial, retail and residential. Although we all know that this won’t happen as that would be the intelligent outcome to try and ease traffic congestion. Happy to bet now that these new developments will be strictly residential only although I will be more than happy to be wrong with this.
What is happening in Sydney will also see many leave Sydney for quieter and a more stable lifestyle. Whatever the outcome this will have plenty of Sydneyites re – considering their respective futures.
ROBERT SIMEON is a director of <a href="https://www.rwm.com.au/" target="_blank" title="RWM" rel="nofollow">Richardson Wrench Mosman and Neutral Bay</a> and has been selling residential real estate in Sydney since 1985. 
He has also been writing real estate blog <a href="https://www.rwm.com.au/news/" target="_blank" title="Virtual Realty News" rel="nofollow">Virtual Realty News</a> since 2000.
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