Survey

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<div>NAB releases its June 2015 Business Survey which revealed some interesting results, with unemployment now expected to peak at 6.25% and other near term data strengthening.</div>
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<div>Business conditions trending higher moving up strongly from +5 to +11, the highest level since last October and well above the long run average.</div>
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<div>Business confidence is also back up to its post election peak, moving up nicely from +8 to +10, with the highest recording now to be found in retail (the lowest confidence, of course, is in mining):</div>
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<div>And trading conditions booming:</div>
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<div>The forward orders index also rose from +2 to +5.</div>
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<div>Buffers</div>
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<div>On the other hand, consumer confidence has been ticked a little lower lately, which has led in turn to some remarkable loan "arrears" data.</div>
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<div>The average homeowner is now so far ahead on mortgage repayments that loans buffers are better measured in years than months. </div>
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<div>It's amazing how often this theme is recurrent with clients I speak to.</div>
 The full NAB survey can be found <a href="https://business.nab.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2015/07/NAB-Business-survey-June-15.pdf" target="_blank">here</a>.
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PETE WARGENT is the co-founder of <a href="https://allenwargent.com/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">AllenWargent</a> property buyers (London, Sydney) and a best-selling author and <a href="https://petewargent.blogspot.com/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">blogger</a>. 
His latest book is <a href="https://www.bigskypublishing.com.au/Books/General-Interest/Four-Green-Houses--and-a-Red-Hotel/1015/productview.aspx" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">Four Green Houses and a Red Hotel</a>.
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NAB business survey - an upside surprise: Pete Wargent

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Over 80 per cent of residential real estate agents around the world say the coronavirus pandemic has cut their 2020 earning expectations, according to the first international survey of real estate on the impact of the outbreak.
More than 60 countries took part in the Juwai IQI Market Intelligence 2020 survey, with every country citing a loss of earnings.
Real estate agents in Greece have the worst outlook.
Some 95 per cent of Greek agents expect the coronavirus pandemic to cut their earnings in 2020, with two-thirds of those forecasting they will earn "significantly less."
 
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2020/3/Screen%20Shot%202020-04-01%20at%2010.26.02%20am.png" alt="">
As well as Greece, more than four out of five agents in a further five countries expect to earn less in 2020 due to the coronavirus pandemic.
In Australia, 84% of agents expect to earn less in 2020, with 58% suggesting the impact on their earnings will be significant and only 27% expect it to be moderate. 
In Singapore, 88% of agents expect to make less.
The share of Singapore agents who expect to earn "a little less" is, at 47%, larger than the 41% who believe they will make "significantly less."
Malaysian and Philippine agents are the least pessimistic among those surveyed.
In Malaysia, 74% of agents expect to earn less in 2020, with 38% expecting to earn “significantly less” and 33% expecting to earn “a little less.”
In the Philippines, 68% of agents expect to earn less in 2020 due to the Coronavirus, with 38% expecting to earn “significantly less” and 30% expecting to earn “a little less.”
One of the strategies agents will use to preserve their incomes, according to the report, is to invest more in marketing to foreign buyers. Worldwide, 18% of agents report foreign buyers are one of their strategies.
Perhaps because of the relative significance of foreign buyers to their markets, agents in the Philippines and Portugal are the most likely to report plans to do so. In both the Philippines and Portugal, 26% of agents plan to increase their foreign buyer marketing.
In Malaysia and Thailand, 22% of agents will increase their investment in marketing to foreign buyers. In Greece, 21% of agents will do so. The share is 18% in Singapore, 16% in both Canada and Australia, and 12% in the USA.
 
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Coronavirus driving agents earnings down worldwide; Juwai IQI Market Intelligence 2020 survey

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The number of consumers who don’t think will be a good time to sell their home or investment property continues to out-weigh those who think it is, according to a new survey. 
NAB's latest Australian Consumer Anxiety Survey for Q2 2019 noted these results suggest many consumers still think the housing downturn could still have more to run.
In net terms, +32% said they thought now was a good time to buy a property to live in and +34% to renovate their home.
With house prices continuing to fall across the country, consumers who thought it wasn’t a good time to sell their home (-35%) or investment property (-33%) also continued to significantly out-weigh those who thought it was a good time to sell.
However, the net number who thought so was somewhat lower than in the previous quarter, suggesting that some consumers may believe the market is close to the bottom.
With downward pressures on interest rates, it also noted a large increase in the net number of consumers who thought it was a good time to get a mortgage on their home (+13).
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2019/6/26/Good%20time%20NAB%201.JPG" alt="">
Source: NAB Anxiety Report Q2 2019
On balance, slightly more consumers (+29%) believe it will be a good time to buy a property to live in over the next 12 months (+25% in Q1 2019), and +24% to renovate their home (+23% in Q1 2019).
The number of consumers who don’t think it will be a good time to sell their home (-15%) or investment property (-14%) continues to out-weigh those who think it is - but this has fallen since Q1 2019, suggesting more consumers are expecting market conditions to improve.
With widespread speculation for further interest rate cuts in 2019, those who think it will be a good time to take out a mortgage a mortgage for their own home (+10) also rose.
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2019/6/26/Good%20time%20NAB%202.JPG" alt="">
Source: NAB Anxiety Report Q2 2019
Consumer intentions around property are still overwhelming conservative.
The net number of consumers who said they didn’t intend to sell investment property (-83%), renovate an investment property (-81%), take out an investment loan (-79%), sell their home (-78%), buy investment property (-75%), take out a home loan (-74%) or sell the home they live in (-66%) far outweighed those who said they would.
Consumers were least negative about renovating their homes (-49%). Intentions remain overwhelmingly negative and conservative in all states - see table below.
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2019/6/26/Good%20time%20NAB%203.JPG" alt="">
Source: NAB Anxiety Report Q2 2019
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Australians still fear the property market has further to fall: NAB

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Over 40 percent of respondents of a recent survey said they were reliant on future house price growth to achieve future life / financial goals, with 10 percent completely reliant.
The study of 1500 Australian adults also saw 38 percent want prices to increase while 37 percent want them to fall.
Where you sit largely comes down to your property ownership status: 39 percent of those who own the home they live in and 47 percent who own an investment property indicated they are ‘reliant’ on future prices, presumably increasing, while 48 percent of those who don’t own a property also say they are reliant, presumably wanting prices to fall.
Younger respondents indicated they are more reliant on future house prices than older: 51 percent of Millennials (25 to 39 year olds) said they are reliant compared to 30 percent of Baby Boomers (55-74 year olds).
Most tellingly, the survey indicates more Australians would benefit from property prices falling than rising, with only 28 percent indicating they’d benefit by selling if prices continued to rise compared to 47 percent who said they’d benefit by buying in if property prices fell.
A quarter of home owners happy to see house prices to fall
ME home loan expert Patrick Nolan said he was surprised to find 37 percent of respondents want property prices to fall, including 24 percent of those who own a home and even 20 percent of those with an investment property, compared to 38 percent of who want prices to continue rising 38 percent.
“Traditionally Australians fall into two camps when it comes to property prices: owners, who want them to rise, and non-owners, who want them to fall.
“But with high prices disrupting the dream of home ownership and the benefits that brings, views are changing.”
“That property owners were willing to see asset values fall is a sure sign house prices had reached heights many think are unfair,” Nolan said.
When asked why they want prices to fall, the overwhelming reason given was to help address the housing affordability issue (57 percent), a sentiment expressed by 97 percent of those with property.
The bulk of those wanting house prices to continue rising are property owners: 49 percent of home owners and 55 percent of investors.
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New survey confirms the importance of property to Australians

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Regulatory moves to tighten lending to foreign buyers seem to be working, with their share in new property markets falling to a five-year low 9.5%,  according to a NAB index.
However, the share of foreign buyers edged up to 5.9% in established markets, albeit still near four-year lows. 
The figures are part of NAB’s Residential Property Survey for the quarter ended September. 
The data was cited by CoreLogic’s head of research Cameron Kusher.
“NAB's quarterly residential property survey indicates that there has been a big pullback in foreign demand for residential property,” Kusher tweeted. 
NAB’s note had said that “we have maintained our view for <a href="https://www.urban.com.au/news/77029-property-market-moderating-but-still-be-some-legs-left-in-the-housing-market-nab-survey" target="_blank">more muted market performance</a> going forward, particularly following our revised expectations for RBA rate hikes which have been brought forward to mid-2018 (from H2 2019)”.
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/10/17/NABForeignDemand.png" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2017/10/17/NABForeignDemand.png" alt="">
Victoria had the lowest foreign buying activity in new property markets, where the share of sales to foreign buyers fell to 14.4% (20.8% in Q2). 
Foreign buyers were also noticeably less prevalent in NSW, where their market share fell to 7.8% - its lowest level since Q1 2012 and down from 12.0% in Q2. The proportion of foreign buyers in new property markets also fell in WA to 4.5% (6.9% in Q2). In contrast, foreign buyers increased their market share in Queensland to 11.4% (8.6% in Q2) despite the introduction of a foreign investor land tax surcharge in July 2017. 
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/10/17/NABgraph2.png" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2017/10/17/NABgraph2.png" alt="">
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/10/17/NABgraph3.png" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2017/10/17/NABgraph3.png" alt="">
In established housing markets, the overall share of foreign buyers rose a little from 5.6% to 5.9% in Q3, but remained anchored at near 5-year lows. 
Foreign buyers accounted for a smaller share of sales in Victoria (8.0% in Q3 vs. 9.0% in Q2), NSW (5.6% vs. 5.9%) and WA (4.2% vs. 4.5%). 
In Queensland, however, they accounted for 6.7% of established property sales, up from 3.8% in Q2. 
 
 
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NAB survey indicates pullback in foreign buyers: CoreLogic's Cameron Kusher 

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The Stockland Liveability Index has found the most important factors in creating a liveable city is for it to be connected, healthy, smart and affordable.
The index is based on the results of a survey of 2,500 people that was conducted between January and March 2017 in partnership with Colmar Brunton.
Findings and relevance to the future direction of our cities will be discussed at a special event hosted by the Committee for Sydney featuring land use expert Professor Christopher Leinberger, Greater Sydney Chief Commissioner Lucy Turnbull AO, Stockland CEO and managing director Mark Steinert, and co-founder of Roberts Day, Mike Day.
Mark Steinert, Stockland managing director and CEO, said they are delighted to partner with the Committee for Sydney and bring Professor Leinberger to Australia at a time when as a nation we are rethinking the future of our cities, with a strong focus on liveability.
“For communities to be liveable, they need to be smart, healthy, connected and importantly, affordable," he said.
"The powerful emerging market trend toward walkable urban development in the US is one we expect to see replicated in Australia, as our cities continue their strong growth trajectories.
“Capturing and applying the insights from research by experts such as Professor Leinberger will help ensure our growth story is a positive one for the people who live, work and visit our metropolitan centres.”
Professor Leinberger’s 2016 report, Foot Traffic Ahead, shows that: “For perhaps the first time in 60 years, walkable urban places (‘WalkUPs’) in all 30 of the [US’] largest metros are gaining market share over their drivable sub-urban competition — and showing substantially higher rental premiums.”
Tim Williams, Chief Executive of the Committee for Sydney said governments at all levels are accelerating their efforts to shape the future of our cities, with a focus on ensuring we have the right infrastructure and public amenities in place to make them sustainable and liveable over the long-term.  
Mike Day, Co-Founder of Roberts Day, said with Sydney suffering from the overlapping crises of health and affordability, a key step to transform Sydney is creating walkable places.
"Walkable places offer people safety, comfort and delight," he said.
"Benefits of a walkable Sydney include creating a true 30 minute city to address the fact people of Western Sydney are three times more likely to suffer from diabetes than their inner-city counterparts.
“The emerging equity issue Sydney needs to address is people’s proximity to walkable places.
"By giving priority to walkable places as the new missing middle of Sydney’s density done well discussion, the added value of improved health, happiness and productivity, means everyone benefits.
“The obesity statistics present a significant challenge facing the liveability of Australian cities. 
“Our research shows us that if we work with government and other key stakeholders to fast-track schools, parks, childcare, cafés and shops, we can have a profound impact on the liveability of our communities and the health of residents.
"The social imperatives for doing so is compelling and is supported by equally clear commercial ones.
“The Federal Government’s Smart Cities Plan, as well as State planning policies including the recently-released Greater Sydney Commission District Plans, reflect the importance of liveability measures.
“The unique perspective offered by our Liveability Index is the voices of more than 2,500 residents – from the ground up, sharing their experiences of what makes a community work well.”
The Stockland Liveability Index provides three key lessons for cities:
1.     Provide opportunities for community interaction:
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<li>Parks, cafés, walkways, schools, children’s playgrounds, cycleways</li>
<li>Build in technology, to connect communities from the outset and enhance customer experience</li>
<li>Create links with the natural environment</li>
<li>Community programs, like parents’ groups and exercise classes, for community connection and physical exercise.</li>
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2.     Introduce well-designed neighbourhoods:
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<li>Smart design, with places that are walkable</li>
<li>Carefully plan all new homes to be close to childcare, schools, retail, parks and playgrounds</li>
<li>Access to employment, transport and health facilities.</li>
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3.     Deliver infrastructure early, where possible:
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<li>Fast tracking key infrastructure such as playgrounds, schools, public transport, parks,</li>
<li>outdoor exercise stations</li>
<li>Proven to generate high levels of resident satisfaction and community pride.</li>
</ul>
A recording of the discussion will be available at <a href="https://www.sydney.org.au" target="_blank">www.sydney.org.au</a>.
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Urban experts reveal key ingredients for successful cities

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Just under half of Aussies polled for a recent survey (48 percent) believe the property dream is still alive and well according to the CommBank Connected Future Report.
The report, based on the response of more than one million people, asked Australians about how they perceive their future, the property market, adapting to a changing workforce, and life for younger generations.
Just over half of the respondents (52 percent) said the Australian dream is being redefined.
Demographer and futurist Claire Madden authored the CommBank Connected Future Report.
She said a remarkable insight from the CommBank ATM data overall is the resilience and tenacity Aussies have in the face of economic uncertainty.
“As a lead example, while the Australian property dream looks markedly different in 2017, the majority of Australians either fully own or are paying off their home," she said.
“This has remained constant over the past five decades, so despite uncertainty, the Australian dream has clearly lived through time.
"The research shows while Millennials (Gen Y) are delaying traditional life markers like getting married or having a child, the average age of a first homebuyer has remained relatively constant over the last two decades, sitting at around 32 years of age.
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/06/14/Screen%20Shot%202017-06-14%20at%2011.09.10%20AM.png" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2017/06/14/Screen%20Shot%202017-06-14%20at%2011.09.10%20AM.png" alt="">
 
"The Australian ‘dream home’ is no longer a weatherboard standalone house. It is an architecturally designed product, as the quality of dwellings has risen over time.
"Whilst 74 per cent of those living in cities and 81 per cent of those outside capital cities currently live in a stand alone house, 48 per cent of new residential approvals over the past year have been for medium or high density housing.
"CommBank data reveals 68 percent of first home buyers purchased a house in the last year, 16 percent desire to build their architectural dream home after purchasing vacant land, and 15 percent purchased an apartment or townhouse.
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/06/14/Screen%20Shot%202017-06-14%20at%201.22.26%20PM.png" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2017/06/14/Screen%20Shot%202017-06-14%20at%201.22.26%20PM.png" alt="">
"The data relating to the Australian property dream reveals that the state you live in impacts your state of optimism.
"The least optimistic were people residing in New South Wales (53 percent) and Victoria (54 percent), and this was significantly high with younger generations (57 percent in both states).
"Those in Queensland (51 percent), South Australia (53 percent), Western Australia (54 percent) and the Northern Territory (57 percent) believe the dream is more attainable.
"Gen Y have prioritised global travel, lifestyle experiences, stayed longer in formal education and attained the name KIPPERS (Kids in Parents’ Pockets Eroding Retirement Savings) for staying in the family home longer.
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/06/14/Screen%20Shot%202017-06-14%20at%201.24.11%20PM.png" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2017/06/14/Screen%20Shot%202017-06-14%20at%201.24.11%20PM.png" alt="">
"Yet now they are in their prime career building and family forming years, they, like their predecessors, are finding a way to overcome the obstacles, respond to new realities, and see the (re)defined dream come alive.
"Even though the dream has taken a different form, the data reveals property ownership remains high on the aspirational list (average home buying age remains consistent at 32).
"With almost 3 in 10 Australians (29 percent) born overseas, and a quarter (27 percent) of the population’s labour force born overseas, immigration has significantly contributed to Australia’s workforce and economy.
"In the midst of this diversity, CommBank data reveals that almost half of Aussies (49 percent) believe that our society truly embraces everyone."
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Survey reveals under half of people believe that the property dream is still alive

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Respondents to a new survey from the Australian Property Institute believe residential property in Sydney and Melbourne is reaching the top of the property cycle and markets will remain in a similar position in Melbourne for a further 12 months and in Sydney for another two years.
The majority of respondents believe that interest rates will remain at similar levels for the next year, and be higher in 3 years. They also believe that foreign investment will be at similar levels for the six months, but uncertain of levels over the longer term.
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Mike Zissler, API chief executive officer, said a common view among respondents is that overall, demand is outperforming supply, ensuring residential markets remain strong.
<a href="/images/2016/12/07/Chart-2.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
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“Ninety-two per cent of survey respondents see low interest rates as a significant to very significant driver of Sydney residential property demand and prices," he said.
"The second most significant driver is supply, with 91 percent seeing it as significant to very significant.
<a href="/images/2016/12/07/Chart-3.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="/images/2016/12/07/Chart-3.jpg" alt="">
“In Melbourne, the two main drivers for residential property demand and prices are low interest rates (with 95 percent of respondents seeing them as a significant to very significant driver) and foreign investment (with 91 per cent of respondents seeing it as a significant to very significant driver).
<a href="/images/2016/12/07/Chart-4.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="/images/2016/12/07/Chart-4.jpg" alt="">
“Brisbane is similar to the Sydney market, with 95 percent of respondents seeing low interest rates as significant or very significant, and therefore the main driver of demand and prices in the city. Supply is considered the second most significant driver, with 80 per cent seeing it as significant to very significant.
“We also asked respondents about the drivers of demand in Perth. Low interest rates are again considered the most significant driver of demand and prices, however this view is not as strong as in the other cities, with 80 per cent seeing it as a significant or very significant driver.
“Results were split for Sydney, with 58 percent of respondents indicating residential property is in or is entering a bubble, while 42 percent indicate it is not in a bubble.
“Respondents were fairly certain of a bubble in the Melbourne market, with 86 percent of respondents indicating residential property is in or is entering a bubble, while 14 percent believe it is not in a bubble.
<a href="/images/2016/12/07/Chart-6.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
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“For Brisbane, 42 percent of respondents indicate that residential property is not in a bubble, 52 percent indicate that it is in or is entering a bubble and 5 per cent are unsure.
<a href="/images/2016/12/07/Chart-7.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="/images/2016/12/07/Chart-7.jpg" alt="">
"For Perth, respondents are more certain, with 90 percent indicating residential property is not in a bubble."
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Prices staying at top of property cycle: Australian Property Institute's property directions survey 

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Commercial property professionals continue to be confident over the next two years and sentiment is improving, the NAB Commercial Property Survey for Q3 shows.
The NAB Commercial Property Index rose 11 points to +16, with sentiment higher across the four surveyed sectors of Office, Retail, Industrial and CBD Hotels.
Market sentiment remained strongest in NSW, which rose 17 points over the quarter to +55 and Victoria (up 2 to +30), consistent with the stronger business conditions also exhibited in those states.
<a href="/images/2016/11/09/Commercial%20property%20index.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="/images/2016/11/09/Commercial%20property%20index.jpg" alt="">
In contrast, sentiment fell a further 6 points in Western Australia to -54.
“Stronger sentiment this quarter came despite moderations in business conditions over the quarter, as recorded by the NAB Quarterly Business Survey,” NAB senior economist Rob de Iure said.
“While sentiment has improved, gains are narrowly based on the eastern seaboard with NSW and Victoria outperforming the rest of the country in sentiment, capital growth and income returns.
“Looking forward, confidence levels from respondents were also high, with gains in the CBD Hotels, Office and Industrial sectors offsetting lower confidence in Retail – likely driven by weaker retail business conditions and subdued consumer spending.”
The Q3 Survey shows nearly two-thirds of all developers looking to start projects were looking at the residential sector, however only 34% planned to start work in the next six months – dropping to 18% in 18 months’ time.
<a href="/images/2016/11/09/Property%20table%201.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="/images/2016/11/09/Property%20table%201.jpg" alt="">
“Survey respondents may be telling us that the current housing construction cycle, particularly for high density properties, may slow in the coming two years,” Mr de Iure said.
“And while the number of property developers planning to source more capital to fund their development was broadly unchanged quarter-on-quarter, nearly half (48%) were unsure of their intentions over the next 12 months – up from 31% in the second quarter.”
In addition, the Survey found more property developers are using land-banked stock to start new work, which may reflect the high levels of building activity in the residential sectors and land shortages in some cities.
Property professionals on balance also report that it is getting harder to obtain debt and equity for their businesses – with professionals expecting access to funding to remain difficult for the next 6-12 months.
About 240 property professionals participated in the Q3 Survey.
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