Stock Levels

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<p><span>EXPERT OBSERVER</span></p>
<p><span>The seasonal surge in listing numbers is well underway, with fresh listings being added to the market up 16% relative to the end of winter, however, despite the upswing in new listings, fresh stock additions are tracking almost 4% lower than the at the same time a year ago to be at their lowest seasonal level since 2012. </span></p>
<p><span>The low level of new listing numbers can be attributed to weak vendor confidence; no surprise given housing market conditions have weakened and selling conditions have become more challenging.</span></p>
<p><span><a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2018/10/19/stock%20level%201.jpg" target="_blank">Click here to enlarge</a>.</span></p>
<p><span> <img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2018/10/19/stock%20level%201.jpg" alt=""></span></p>
<p>Although freshly advertised stock is low, total advertised listing numbers have been trending higher as the rate of absorption slows. In fact, if the current trend continues, we will see the number of properties available for sale exceed the recent 2012 peak in total advertised stock levels. Total listing numbers are 10.2% higher than year ago and at their highest level for this time of the year since 2012.</p>
<p>The rise in total listing numbers isn’t due to a panicked surge in new listings. This is more about less demand which is causing a rise in relisting’s along with longer selling times and fewer successful sales at auction.</p>
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<p><span>The typical capital city dwelling sold by private treaty is now taking 53 days to sell compared with 42 days a year ago and discounting rates have risen to an average of 6.5%, up from 6.0% a year ago.</span></p>
<p>Click here to <a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2018/10/19/stock%20level%203.jpg" target="_blank">enlarge.</a></p>
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<p>More stock means more choice for buyers and harder selling condition for vendors – essentially abuyers’ market. Buyers have little sense of urgency under these conditions; they can negotiate hard, take their time to make a purchase decision, and if they feel a property price doesn’t reflect fairvalue, they can easily move onto the next property option.</p>
<p>Click here <a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2018/10/19/stock%20level%204.jpg" target="_blank">to enlarge. </a></p>
<p><img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2018/10/19/stock%20level%204.jpg" alt=""></p>
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<p><span>With so much competing stock on the </span>market, vendors will need to be reasonable with their pricing expectations and ensure their marketing campaign is as effective as possible in order to stand out from other stock for sale.</p>
<p><em><span class="s2"><em><em>Tim Lawless is the national research director of CoreLogic RP Data </em>and can be contacted<a href="https://blog.corelogic.com.au/author/timlawless/" target="_blank"> here.</a></em></span></em></p>
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tlawless-5VLUrbAk9s

Buyers back in the driver's seat as stock levels surge to highest levels since 2012

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<p class="post-title entry-title">One of several reasons that some of Australia's property markets might fare surprisingly well in 2018 is the looming equities correction, driven by volatility in the US and elsewhere. </p>
<div id="post-body-3635881065614058753" class="post-body entry-content">
<p>It's now become clear (if it wasn't already obvious) that <a href="http://petewargent.blogspot.com.au/2018/01/rate-hikes-are-not-on-cards" target="_blank">interest rates aren't going to be hiked</a> this year, and probably not next either. </p>
<div>Employment is picking up nicely in some capital cities, and population growth is rising too, driving demand for housing. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>Meanwhile, the lack of enticing alternatives will keep a healthy volume of investors interested in real estate, with the cash rate stuck at record lows for the foreseeable future. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>Since closing at 6135.81 on January 9, the Aussie share market as measured by the ASX 200 index has already dropped by -5.13 per cent. </div>
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<div>An inauspicious start to 2018 to say the least. </div>
<div><span><strong> </strong></span></div>
<div><span style="text-decoration: underline;"><span><strong>'Pain trade'</strong></span></span></div>
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<div><span>US stock futures are up quite strongly at the time of writing, so perhaps tomorrow will be a better trade Down Under. </span></div>
<div><span> </span></div>
<div><span>But somehow it seems doubtful that stock market nerves are going to be settled for a while yet. </span></div>
<div><span> </span></div>
<div><span>That's the uncanny tendency of markets to deliver the maximum amount of punishment to the most investors from time to time, especially after a long, strong run.</span></div>
<div><span> </span></div>
<div><span>Myer (ASX: MYR) finished today's trade with a fresh low close of 55 cents. </span></div>
<div><span> </span></div>
<div><span>Shorters should now be wary of the takeover risk. </span></div>
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<div><span><span>PETE WARGENT is the co-founder of </span><a href="https://allenwargent.com/" target="_blank"><span class="s2">AllenWargent</span></a><span> property buyers (London, Sydney) and a best-selling author and </span><a href="https://petewargent.blogspot.com/" target="_blank"><span class="s2">blogger</span></a><span>.</span></span></div>
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pwargent-M4siyDbqQY

Share correction could help Australia property markets

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<p>Despite a surging population and record high levels of new construction, a lower proportion of housing stock is selling. </p>
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<p>The analysis, paired annual settled sales data with dwelling counts over time to show that the proportion of total housing stock turnover on an annual basis. </p>
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<p>The analysis found that over the 12 months to September 2017, just 5% of the national housing stock transacted; the lowest proportion of stock-turnover since April 2012 when it was at an historic low of 4.9% of stock transacted. Over the nine years of data available, an average of 5.5% of the national housing stock transacts in a given year.</p>
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<p>Across the combined capital cities, a record-low of 4.7 percent housing stock transacted over the past year which was well down on the 5.6% average. Across the combined regional markets, 5.6% of housing stock transacted which was slightly higher than the 5.5% average. In both the capital city and regional housing markets stock turn-over is slowing. </p>
<p><img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2017/10/26/Total.jpg" alt=""></p>
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<p>Housing turnover is impacted by supply and demand factors. From the demand side of things the contributors are the rate of population growth, growth in household incomes, levels of investor demand and accessibility to credit. </p>
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<p>From the supply side the factors include the level of new housing construction and how much stock is actually available for sale at any given time. Other factors include the costs associated with buying and selling properties as well as government policies such as incentives for first home buyers.” </p>
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<p>Across the states and territories, the trends are interesting: </p>
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<p>NSW: In Sydney an historic low 4.7% of housing stock transacted over the past year and in regional NSW the figure was 5.9%. In each region turnover has slowed. </p>
<p><img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2017/10/26/NSW.jpg" alt=""></p>
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<p>Vic: Historic low 4.4% of Melbourne housing stock turned-over throughout the past year compared to 4.9% of regional Vic stock. Both of the regions are seeing a fall in turnover.</p>
<p><img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2017/10/26/Vic.jpg" alt=""></p>
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<p>Qld: Stock turnover is well above record lows in Brisbane (5.8%) and regional Qld (5.8%). Brisbane turnover is only slightly below average (5.9%) while regional Qld turnover is at average levels. </p>
<p><img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2017/10/26/QLD.jpg" alt=""></p>
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<p>SA: Turnover is fairly steady in SA recorded at 5.7% in Adelaide and 5.8% in regional SA. In each region turnover is slightly above long- term average levels. </p>
<p><img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2017/10/26/SA.jpg" alt=""></p>
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<p>WA: After a large fall over recent years, turnover has stabilised at a record low in Perth (3.6%) and has increased slightly from record lows in regional WA (4.2%). </p>
<p><img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2017/10/26/WA.jpg" alt=""></p>
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<p>Tas: In Hobart, 5.9% of housing stock sold last year compared to a long-term average of 5.4% annually and in regional Tas 6.1% of stock sold compared to a long-term average of 5.3% </p>
<p><img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2017/10/26/Tas.jpg" alt=""></p>
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<p>NT: 4.2% of housing stock transacted over the past year in Darwin and 4.7% of stock in regional NT. There has been a significant fall in turnover across the state as dwelling values have fallen.</p>
<p><img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2017/10/26/NT.jpg" alt=""></p>
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<p>Canberra: Over the past year, 4.8% of housing stock sold which is an historic low level. </p>
<p><img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2017/10/26/Canberra.jpg" alt=""></p>
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<p>The figures are stark given just how little of the Australian housing market actually sells in any given year.</p>
<p>A big driver of the low level of turnover over the past year has been relatively low levels of stock for sale, particularly in our largest capital cities and the high costs associated with stamp duty when buying a property.</p>
<p>The impost of stamp duty discourages turnover as we have recently seen with the removal of stamp duty for first time buyers under certain price thresholds in NSW and Vic.</p>
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<p>Once removed there has been a surge in housing finance commitments by first home buyers.</p>
<p>The final consideration for the low turnover is the high cost of housing in Australia, because the cost is high it is a significant consideration for households as to whether or not to purchase a property. </p>
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ckusher-ujnxiKuFQs

Dwelling construction surges yet housing turnover falls

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<p>SQM Research has recorded flat asking prices and rising stock levels across the country for the first quarter of 2014.</p>
<p>According to the research firm’s latest figures, the capital city average house asking price fell 1.6% over the March quarter, while unit prices stayed flat. Sydney asking prices for houses dipped by the same 1.6%, with units rising by just 0.2%, a result that may surprise some given the bullish outlook many commentators had for the city at the beginning of the year.</p>
<p>Adelaide was the quarter’s strongest capital city market, with house asking prices increasing by 0.9% and units climbing by 3.5%.</p>
<p>SQM Research managing director Louis Christopher noted that SQM’s findings for the quarter differ from those provided by RPData.</p>
<p>“This is all in contrast to the very bullish findings from the RP Data daily index, which among other things, reported a very sharp rise in Melbourne dwelling prices of 5% for the quarter and now has Sydney up over 15% for the year,” said Christopher.</p>
<p>“While that index may be meeting our forecasts this year of 15-20% rises for Sydney, SQM Research continues to remain dubious of it and strongly recommends for you to follow the ABS and APM versions of house price sold data, which will be reporting early next month based on a lot more sold data for the quarter gone by.”</p>
<p>The firm also reports a rise in stock on market for March, with a 1.8% increase over the month to 352,369 dwellings.</p>
<p>However, the national stock level was down 5.2% on a year-to-year basis, with Sydney’s stock on market down 17% from March 2013.</p>
<p>Darwin recorded the highest jump in stock on market from the previous year, with listed dwellings rising 12.8% from 1,221 in March 2013 to 1,335 last month. SQM Research noted that stock on market levels are particularly vulnerable to seasonal influence, making monthly fluctuations a less useful indicator of market conditions than year on year analysis.</p>
<p>The research company expects a fall in listings over the Easter holiday period.</p>
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jrichardson-uRX5hFdKfN

Asking prices flat for March quarter: SQM Research

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<p>Burradoo is ranked the NSW location where there's been the biggest decrease in stock compared to last year, according to Investar’s latest market report.</p>
<p>The property investment firm states that Burradoo has suffered a 57 percent decrease in stock, from 126 listings last year to the current 53 offerings.</p>
<p>This is followed by Bradbury from 56 to 26 and Hawks Nest from 61 to 29.</p>
<p><a href="/images/2016/10/11/Screen%20Shot%202016-10-11%20at%2010.04.22%20AM.png" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></p>
<p><img src="/images/2016/10/11/Screen%20Shot%202016-10-11%20at%2010.04.22%20AM.png" alt=""></p>
<p>This list was produced using historical on the sales listing data at a suburb level for houses.</p>
<p>It is designed to identify the suburbs with the biggest decrease in stock on market for the current month when compared to the stock on market for the same period 12 months ago.</p>
<p>A large decrease in stock on market could indicate tightening supply conditions or a general lack of activity in the market.</p>
<p>Houses for sale at Burradoo at the median price of $1,450,000 include a three bedroom home at <a href="https://www.realestate.com.au/property-house-nsw-burradoo-123593966" target="_blank">31 Osborne Rd</a> (above) that is for sale for $1,365,000.</p>
<p>Similarly a four bedroom home at <a href="https://www.realestate.com.au/property-house-nsw-burradoo-123421798" target="_blank">3 Riversdale Avenue</a> (below) is for sale for between $1,450,000 - $1,550,000.</p>
<p><img src="/images/2016/10/05/3%20Riversdale%20Avenue.jpg" alt=""></p>
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j.ballantyne1990-6AQqhLzZaK

Burradoo house listings halve: Investar

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<p>Research analyst Cameron Kusher noted that as housing market conditions transition, stock levels remain tight across the strongest markets but are rising in areas where housing market conditions are softening.</p>
<p>For this analysis, Mr Kusher measured the amount of advertised stock on 280,000 the market on a rolling 28 day basis. He said, “Advertised stock levels provide a unique count, meaning that listings are matched to properties and when a property is advertised in more than one place it is only counted once.”</p>
<p>“It’s important to note that typically these counts are more reflective of the 230,000 established housing market rather than off-the-plan where stock often isn’t 220,000 individually advertised.”</p>
<p>• Across the nation CoreLogic is currently tracking 226,007 properties advertised for sale which is 5.3% lower than a year ago and well down on 2012 levels at this time of the year for the past five years.</p>
<p>• Across the combined capital cities, total stock advertised for sale is 1.0% 40,000 higher than it was a year ago with 110,909 properties advertised over the past 28 days. Looking at stock at this time of year across the combined capital cities there is more stock currently for sale than there has been each year since 2013.</p>
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<p>Mr Kusher said, “By comparing capital city and national data it indicates that the amount of stock for sale in the regional markets is substantially 20,000 lower than it has been over recent years.</p>
<p>The combined regional markets account for 50.9% of total listings, its lowest proportion of national listings 15,000 since December 2011.”</p>
<p>Across the individual capital cities the data varies quite substantially.</p>
<p>• Sydney – currently has 25,625 properties advertised for sale which is 19.5% higher than a year ago. In comparison to the same time over recent years, the amount of stock on the market is now higher than each of the past four years. 25,000</p>
<p>• Melbourne – with 30,570 properties advertised for sale stock levels are - 1.7% lower than a year ago. The volume of stock for sale is lower for this time of year than any of the past 5 years.</p>
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<p>• Brisbane – the number of properties advertised for sale is 2.5% higher than a year ago with 20,611 properties currently on the market.</p>
<p>Compared to this time of year over the past five years, listings are at their highest level since 2012 however, they are - 15.2% lower than 2012 levels.</p>
<p>• Adelaide – with 8,794 properties for sale, listings are 8.0% higher than a year ago and at their highest levels for this time of year since 2013 although they are -7.7% lower than 2013 levels.</p>
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<p>• Perth – the 20,309 properties for sale in Perth is -14.3% lower than a 24,000 year ago however, it is also 1.6% higher than volumes at this time of year two years ago.</p>
<p>• Hobart – with 1,157 properties for sale across the city the volume of stock for sale -33.6% lower than a year ago and at its lowest level over 18,000 each of the past five years. In fact Hobart stock for sale is -54.7% lower than it was two years ago.</p>
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<p>• Darwin – the 1,581 properties advertised for sale is -1.9% lower than a year ago however, stock levels remain elevated. In fact stock for sale is 73.0% higher than it was in 2012.</p>
<p>• Canberra – the 2,262 properties advertised for sale currently is 14.4% more than there were a year ago. The number of properties for sale is up on 2015 and 2016 levels.</p>
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<p>Mr Kusher found that listings trends vary significantly across the country.</p>
<p>As an example, Hobart, which is the housing market with the strongest value growth has seen a dramatic fall in listings over recent years.</p>
<p>Meanwhile, values have fallen over the year in Perth and Darwin and each of these cities is seeing heightened stock levels.</p>
<p>Sydney has seen a rapid slowdown in growth over recent months and at the same time the volume of stock for sale has increased relative to recent 600 years.</p>
<p>In Melbourne, value growth remains relatively strong (although it has slowed a little) and the volume of stock for sale remains lower than over recent years.</p>
<p>Mr Kusher’s findings highlight that the stock for sale (supply) does have a fairly significant impact on the change in dwelling values. He said, “As stock increases, growth slows and as stock falls growth has accelerated.”</p>
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jonathanchancellor-7SQnKwU6yx

Spring listings surge where housing is softening: CoreLogic's weekend auction preview

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<p>Melbourne has over 6.5 percent less fresh listings than it had at the same time last year, while Adelaide and Brisbane aren't too far behind.</p>
<p>Sydney's new 8,300 listing represents a 0.4 percent increase in fresh stock to their market compared to a year ago.</p>
<p>Click here <a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2018/3/14/properties_listed.jpg" target="_blank">to enlarge.</a></p>
<p> </p>
<p> <img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2018/3/14/properties_listed.jpg" alt=""></p>
<p>Sydney's overhang still comes from last year, with 26,800 total listings showing a 22.5 percent increase on how many listings they had last year.</p>
<p>Hobart is still well short of stock with dwellings flying off the shelves. They're 34.5 percent down on total number of listings from this time last year.</p>
<p>In total there are nearly 30,000 new listings, down 3.2 percent from this time last year.</p>
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