Southeast Queensland

<h2>EXPERT OBSERVER</h2>

The SEQ story is a very strong one.

The region should remain resilient to higher interest rates because of its relative affordability, high population growth, constrained supply, accelerating interstate and overseas migration, rising rents and low vacancy rates, and the Olympic program.

<h2>1. A Booming Population</h2>

With a population of around 3.8&nbsp;million, the SEQ region is set to grow by another 1.65&nbsp;million by 2041.

Brisbane, Gold Coast and the Sunshine Coast account for 70% of net interstate migration to Queensland which is&nbsp;currently at a 15 year high and far exceeds every other state in Australia.

<img alt="" height="936" src="https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/pictures/article-images/screen_shot_2022-06-20_at_3.51.03_pm.png" width="1334" /> 
East coast capital city net interstate migration. Source: ABS

<h2>2. Significant Infrastructure Investment</h2>

The total infrastructure pipeline for Brisbane, Gold Coast and Sunshine Coast is currently $75+ billion&nbsp;&ndash; the greatest concentrated infrastructure boom SEQ has experienced.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=112349 project_image_fid=199469]

The recently finalised SEQ &ldquo;City Deal&rdquo; is the largest in the nation and is estimated to be worth $58 billion to the local economy. Furthermore, confirmation that Brisbane will host the 2032 Olympics will sure up and boost this pipeline substantially.

<h2>3. Strong Base Fundamentals</h2>

Economic and employment growth, relative affordability, low vacancy rates, superior rental yields and declining supply validate the SEQ investment story.

<img alt="" height="764" src="https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/pictures/article-images/screen_shot_2022-06-20_at_3.48.40_pm.png" width="1338" /> 
South east Queensland economic growth. Source: ID Community

<img alt="" height="834" src="https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/pictures/article-images/screen_shot_2022-06-20_at_3.51.54_pm.png" width="1286" /> 
&nbsp;

South east Queensland employment growth. Source: ID Community

In Brisbane, it will take 6.2 times the average wage to pay off a dwelling. Comparatively in Melbourne and Sydney, it will take 8.3 and 9.5 times the average wage respectively (source: ANZ)

<img alt="" height="788" src="https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/pictures/article-images/screen_shot_2022-06-20_at_3.53.56_pm.png" width="1300" /> 
Average dwelling price to income ratio. Source: ANZ

<h2>4. An Impeding Product Under-Supply</h2>

Rental vacancy rates are one of the best lead indicators of the underlying demand/supply balance in residential property markets.&nbsp;Vacancy rates across SEQ have been progressively declining since 2016, and now sit at all-time lows.

They have remained consistently below those in Melbourne and Sydney for a number of years. At 0.6%, the current vacancy rate across SEQ represents an extremely tight and undersupplied rental market.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=112349 project_image_fid=199468]

As a consequence of such consistently and comparatively low levels of vacancy, yearly rental growth across SEQ has been considerably stronger than that which has been experienced in Melbourne and Sydney.

Furthermore, this growth has ensured sustained SEQ rental yields of 5%, significantly higher than those being achieved in Sydney and Melbourne which both sit at near-record lows of 3.7%.

[smartcode_project:default project_id=112349 project_image_fid=199473]

Based on historical demand and likely anticipated supply,&nbsp;SEQ will experience a shortfall of more than 16,500 new apartments over the next four years.

<img alt="" height="914" src="https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/pictures/article-images/screen_shot_2022-06-20_at_3.58.07_pm.png" width="1304" /> 
&nbsp;

SEQ potential apartment settlements. Source: CoreLogic, JLL, Place Advisory, PriceFinder.

<h2>5. Strongest Performing Market this Cycle</h2>

The last true SEQ growth cycle occurred between 2001 and 2004. During this period, the region outperformed the southern capitals just as it had during previous peak growth phases.

History shows that in the context of market cycles a period of&nbsp;SEQ outperformance is well overdue and that the current growth cycle likely has much further to run (see diagram below).

<img alt="" height="632" src="https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/www.urban.com.au/s3fs-public/pictures/article-images/screen_shot_2022-06-20_at_3.59.36_pm.png" width="1450" /> 
SEQ yearly increase in average house price. Source: Pricefinder

Michael Zaghini is the Head of Research at Mosaic Property Group

South East Queensland boasts a powerful combination of having a thriving world-class capital city, an enviable lifestyle, stunning beaches, record infrastructure investment, strong employment growth, and a high level of housing affordability

alisonwarters@gmail.com

Five reasons SEQ property will continue to outperform other regions: Mosaic Property

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<img src="https://counter.theconversation.edu.au/content/69199/count.gif?distributor=republish-lightbox-basic" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1">
GUEST OBSERVER
Special interest groups have had much more influence than the wider community on the new regional plan for Southeast Queensland.
A draft of the plan, ShapingSEQ, was recently released for comment. Prior input from the wider community was limited to submitting “thought bubbles”about the region without having the benefit of any report card on how the previous plan had performed. 
This process did not accurately gauge community concerns and submitters were not a representative sample. Perhaps it gave people the feeling they’d “had a say”. The process just as likely reinforced cynicism about government consultation.
Regional planning in Southeast Queensland began in the early 1990s when councils in the region signed up to the Regional Framework for Growth Management. This was a non-binding set of guidelines promoted by the state government to manage land-use change. 
Subsequently, this framework evolved into a statutory regional plan in 2005. It is noteworthy that consultation in the lead-up to the 2005 plan included the public release of discussion papers with options for the region’s future.
The initial focus was very much on getting southeast Queensland councils to accept the need for regional planning. At that time, the role of the wider community was relatively minor. 
A 1990 meeting of representatives from government, business, trade unions, professional groups and community organisations was an important impetus for starting the regional planning process. This “stakeholder” model of community engagement has been the dominant form of consultation ever since.
Stakeholders or citizens?
Stakeholders have particular vested interests – such as protecting the environment, promoting a business sector, or advancing a government agency’s agenda. 
Preparation of the 2016 draft plan involved several of these stakeholder “reference groups”. Participants in these groups were there to advocate for the organisation they represent, often making it more difficult to find “outside-the-box” solutions.
Consultation by negotiating with stakeholders is consistent with the dominant view that explicitly pursuing the public interest is less important than growing the economy. Consequently, an “issue management” approach has been taken, with stakeholders “competing” for influence over which development regulations are put in place. Within this worldview, trade-offs between stakeholders usually take place in a “growth first” framework.
An alternative is to promote informed deliberation by citizens who don’t represent particular interests. The Perth Dialogue with the City process shows how this “citizen” approach can work. 
This was a process of engagement with a large group of demographically representative Perth citizens. They were provided with relevant in-depth information before their deliberations about the city’s future.
Wide consultation overdue
It has been at least ten years since there was either an open performance review of southeast Queensland regional planning, or consultation with the wider community on options for the region’s future. Engagement with the wider community is particularly important now for a couple of reasons.
First, the 2016 draft plan claims to have a 50-year vision horizon, compared to the previous plan’s 20 years. Because of this change, the wider community should have been engaged in developing this new vision rather than being presented with a fait accompli in the draft plan. 
Second, the draft plan represents a significant change of focus from the previous 2009 plan. That plan aimed to reduce the region’s ecological footprint and mitigate climate change by reducing greenhouse gas emissions. In contrast, the 2016 draft seems to be adopting a more “growth first” approach. 
It is noteworthy that virtually all references to climate change in this new draft are about adapting to change rather than reducing greenhouse gas emissions. These significant changes should have been widely debated before the draft plan was prepared.
Independent report card needed
For a debate on future directions to be genuine, the community needs an independent, comprehensive report card on how things are tracking. 
The draft plan has ten indicators, some of which show modest improvement. However, other indicators, such as housing affordability and loss of biodiversity, have gone backwards. And koala numbers continue to decline.
The report card should also acknowledge that Australia (including southeast Queensland) has one of the worst records for resource use and greenhouse gas emissions per unit of economic output of any developed country.
Moving beyond ‘predict and provide’
The draft plan largely takes a basic “provide land for the predicted demand” approach, which assumes that regional planning is a type of technical process best left to the experts.
However, regional planning always involves trade-offs between different economic, social and environmental values. These should be openly discussed through genuine community engagement.
By not providing opportunities for such engagement, the draft plan has failed to give the community a real say in the region’s future.
Brian Feeney is urban planning researcher, The University of Queensland and author for The Conversation. He can be contacted <a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/brian-feeney-317083" target="_blank">here</a>.
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Shaping SEQ regional plan gives ‘stakeholders’ a bigger say than citizens

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Property funds manager Clarence Property has further bolstered the portfolio of its unlisted Westlawn Property Trust (WPT), with the $12 million acquisition of a commercial and retail building in the heart of Brisbane's Hamilton.
The fully tenanted 9 Hercules Street Hamilton is Clarence Property's fourth WPT acquisition in the last 12 months, following the purchase of 201 Leichhardt Street Spring Hill for $14.272 million and 48 Bell-Aire Avenue Northgate for $8.475 million in October 2017.
The commercial precinct 183 Varsity Parade, Varsity Lakes, was secured for $11.8 million in March 2017, bringing the total value of WPT acquisitions over the past year to $46.5 million.
Clarence Property recently launched its latest capital raising for WPT.
It is forecasting a 7 per cent cash distribution to investors paid monthly.
WPT has not failed to pay a monthly distribution to unit holders since the Trust's inception in 1994.
Clarence Property managing director Peter Fahey says Hercules Street, located at the doorstep of Brisbane's renowned Portside Wharf precinct (below), offered solid returns and flexibility for further development in the future.
"The Brisbane city and fringe market remains highly competitive in the sub $15 million range, so finding an asset that wasn’t over rented with a WALE above 3.5 years was very attractive," he said.
"The site also has an approved unit development which offers flexibility in the future should we decide to develop when the time is right.
The Hercules Street property is a 2175sqm commercial precinct  currently home to Vystal Property Group, Exercise Sports Science Australia, Corporate Development Mentors and Medi Pro Capital Finance, plus cafe ll Capretto.
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2018/3/21/clar2.jpg" alt="">
The deal was negotiated by Colliers International agents Hunter Higgins and Sam Stubbings. 
Property investment fund manager Clarence Property launched its latest capital raising for its flagship unlisted Westlawn Property Trust on the back of its recently completed seventh offering - which closed over subscribed for $33 million.
WPT is forecasting an 8.6 per cent gross distribution including franking credits.
"Last year, WPT delivered an 18.6 per cent return to investors and has delivered an average return of 12.1 per cent per annum over the past three years, which is a commendable performance," Fahey said adding existing investors are mainly based in northern NSW and South East Queensland.
Many of them are expected to increase their stake in this latest capital raising.
He said there was an appeal to a wide range of investors who are principally seeking regular income, from small  self managed super funds right through to wholesale and sophisticated investors.
WPT was established in 1994 with 13 investors and one property.
It now boasts more than 1,000 investors and nearly $250 million of commercial property under management, together with a 500-lot, $200 million master-planned Epiq community under construction at Lennox Head.
The masterplanned Epiq has realised more than $65 million in land sales in the past two years, with releases two and three, comprising a total 160 lots, both selling out within 24 hours at ballot-style buyer events.
 
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j.ballantyne1990-6AQqhLzZaK

Clarence Property launch latest capital raising for its flagship Westlawn Property Trust

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Now is the time for upgraders to make their move in the southeast Queensland market.
This is according to RiskWise Property Research CEO Doron Peleg, who says the region presents good medium and long-term investment opportunities.
“This is due to a number of factors including good internal migration to the region creating an increase in demand for houses,” Mr Peleg said. 
“Also, the area is very affordable compared to Sydney and Melbourne, particularly when taking a long-term view.
“What we are seeing is a market with good projections. You won’t see a red-hot market with double digit growth, but you will see, overall, a balanced market between buyers and sellers with some small pockets leaning towards sellers in high-demand areas. Usually, you won’t see people paying inflated prices.”
He said with the Queensland Government taking significant steps to grow its economy, the local property market was likely to prosper and as a result, the state continued to attract a high number of interstate migrants in search of affordable housing and employment.
The $5.4 billion Cross River Rail and upgrades to the M1 are just two of the major infrastructure projects expected to have an impact on the economy. The Advance Queensland initiative is also designed to create knowledge-based jobs, drive productivity improvements and help position the state as an attractive investment destination with a strong innovation and entrepreneurial culture.
“When we have significant slowdown and price reductions in Sydney and decelerated prices in Melbourne, as is the case now, this traditionally means southeast Queensland attracts more interstate investments,” Mr Peleg said.
“We have good fundamentals right now. Relatively good housing affordability, population growth and therefore demand for houses, improved jobs and economy, weakness in other markets, and modest capital growth so it’s not an out-of-control market. 
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2018/7/23/Dwelling%20Price%20Growth.jpg" alt="">
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2018/7/23/SEQ_Table.jpg" alt="">
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SEQ upgraders told to 'act now or miss out'

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Village Fair Shopping Centre at Regents Park in south east Queensland has been placed on the market for sale. 
Savills’ Peter Tyson and Jon Tyson have been jointly appointed with Shane Sax of Pace Property to sell the centre via an Expressions of Interest campaign.
Village Fair is located in Regents Park and comprises a convenience scale neighbourhood centre anchored by a 2,000 sqm Drake’s supermarket supported by 25 specialty shops.
Regents Park is situated 22 radial kilometres south of the Brisbane CBD on the Mount Lindesay Highway. 
According to Peter Tyson, Village Fair features an annual income stream approaching $1.7million and will provide a rare offering in the tightly-held southern Brisbane shopping centre market. 
“The local market has been dominated by long term owners and the centre is expected to appeal to private investors and syndicates who dominate transactional activity at this price point." 
“Given the scarcity of similar assets in Brisbane’s greater southern region, and the strong ongoing demand for the neighbourhood shopping centre asset class, we expect a very high level of investor interest in this opportunity,” Peter Tyson said.
Village Fair has a gross lettable area of 4,611 sqm and occupies a 12,900 sqm site with exposure to the Mt Lindesay Highway and passing traffic of over 60,000 cars daily.
Jon Tyson said that there has been identifiable and constant demand from investors for neighbourhood retail opportunities. 
“The non-discretionary nature of this asset class is underpinned by food and service oriented tenants, which is exemplified in Village Fair,” Jon Tyson concluded.
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Savills list Village Fair Shopping Centre at Regents Park

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Buyers are flocking to the South East Queensland (SEQ) premium property market due to affordability, when compared to Sydney and Melbourne median prices, according to the latest PRD SEQ premium property report. 
The report suggests the SEQ premium property market shrunk in 2018 and 2019, partly due to a softening in the Sydney and Melbourne property prices, but also as investor confidence declined.
However, SEQ population is projected to increase approximately 49.4% by 2041.
The major increase of property price in Sydney and Melbourne in 2014-2017 shifted buyers toward the SEQ market, capitalising on comparatively lower prices.
During this time, sales transactions in the premium market increased. As the Sydney and Melbourne markets softened, transaction volume in the SEQ premium market also decreased.
The report also analysed interstate migration and vacancy rate trends, to determine future demand and attractiveness of the SEQ premium property market. 
"By 2026, it is expected we will see large population increases for Brisbane, Gold Coast and Sunshine Coast by 8.3%, 24.6% and 23.4% respectively. Further, by 2041, it is expected that Brisbane will grow by 25.9%, Gold Coast by 62.5%, and Sunshine Coast by 61.9%.
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2019/9/25/PRD%201.png" target="_blank">Click here</a> to enlarge: 
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2019/9/25/PRD%201.png" alt="">
Source: PRD SEQ premium property report
"SEQ has experienced healthy decreasing vacancy rates, with Brisbane (2.5%), Gold Coast (2.7%) and Sunshine Coast (1.7%) all recording below the Real Estate Institute of Australia’s healthy rental demand benchmark of 3.0%. An oversupply of rental properties in Sydney Metro led to an increase in vacancy rates of 3.5% and 2.0% for Melbourne Metro," PRD Chief Economist, Dr Diaswati Mardiasmo said.
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2019/9/25/PRD%202.png" target="_blank">Click here</a> to enlarge: 
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2019/9/25/PRD%202.png" alt="">
Source: PRD SEQ premium property report
Other key findings in this report include:
<ol>
<li>
Brisbane, Gold Coast and Sunshine Coast premium unit markets have shown strong buyer activity. The Brisbane premium unit market almost doubled from 4.5% in 2014, to 8.0% in 2019. The Gold Coast grew from 5.5% in 2014, to 7.3% in 2019. The Sunshine Coast grew significantly from 2.8% in 2014, to 5.1% in 2019.
</li>
<li>
Across SEQ, each region saw a significant decline in average days on the market for both premium units and houses. Gold Coast premium units experienced the most significant decline, from an average of 224 days in 2014, to 142 days in 2019.
</li>
</ol>
PRD Research provides expert insight analysis on transaction activity within the SEQ premium property market, particularly to what extent it is influenced by price swings in Sydney and Melbourne.
Data for this report was collected based on the three major Local Government Areas within SEQ: Brisbane City Council, Gold Coast Council and Sunshine Coast Regional.
Find out more about vacancy rate trends and population forecasts by downloading the report at <a href="https://www.prd.com.au/research-hub/" target="_blank">PRD's website</a>.
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