Slowdown

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<p>Dwelling value growth has slowed as demand from investor’s falls; is this just a coincidence or does it highlight just how reliant the housing market has become on demand from the investor segment?</p>
<p>Over the past five years, dwelling values nationally have increased by 39.3% largely driven by Sydney and Melbourne where values have increased by a much larger amount.  Similarly, over the most recent five years investors have committed to housing finance commitments totaling $695.6 billion.  </p>
<p><img src="https://www.corelogic.com.au/sites/default/files/styles/article_image_570w_/public/2017-11/2017-11-15-img1.png" alt="2017-11-15--img1" width="570" height="288"></p>
<p>At their peak in May 2015, investors accounted for 54.8% of new (excluding refinances) mortgage demand which was an historic high.  With investor demand now slowing, falling a further -6.2% in September 2017 and dwelling values falling in the most investor-centric city (Sydney), what impact is the investor slowdown going to have on the broader housing market?  To try and determine, we shall take a look at investor housing demand across each state and territory.</p>
<h3>NSW </h3>
<p>At their peak in May 2015, investors accounted for 63.6% of new mortgage demand which has since fallen to 50.3% in September 2017, its lowest proportion since December 2015 and well below its five year average of 55.6% of new mortgage commitments.</p>
<p><img src="https://www.corelogic.com.au/sites/default/files/styles/article_image_570w_/public/2017-11/2017-11-15-nsw.png" alt="2017-11-15--nsw" width="570" height="471"></p>
<h3>Vic</h3>
<p>investors currently account for 43.2% of new mortgage demand which is well down from the May 2015 peak of 54.7% and below the five year average of 46.9%.</p>
<p><img src="https://www.corelogic.com.au/sites/default/files/styles/article_image_570w_/public/2017-11/2017-11-15-vic.png" alt="2017-11-15--vic" width="570" height="465"></p>
<h3>Qld</h3>
<p>Investor activity peaked all the way back in 2007 when investors comprised 49.3% of mortgage demand.  Investors currently account for 34.3% of new mortgage lending which is lower than the five year average of 40.8%.</p>
<p><img src="https://www.corelogic.com.au/sites/default/files/styles/article_image_570w_/public/2017-11/2017-11-15-qld.png" alt="2017-11-15--qld" width="570" height="461"></p>
<h3>SA</h3>
<p>Investor activity peaked at 47.5% of new mortgage lending in June 2015 and has reduced to 36.9% in September 2017.  Over the past five years, investors have accounted for an average of 39.8% of new mortgage lending each month.</p>
<p><img src="https://www.corelogic.com.au/sites/default/files/styles/article_image_570w_/public/2017-11/2017-11-15-sa.png" alt="2017-11-15--sa" width="570" height="470"></p>
<h3>WA </h3>
<p>Investor participation peaked all the way back in December 2008 at 49.8% of new mortgage lending.  Over the past five years, investors have averaged 38.1% of new mortgage lending and were recorded at 33.6% in September 2017.</p>
<p><img src="https://www.corelogic.com.au/sites/default/files/styles/article_image_570w_/public/2017-11/2017-11-15-wa.png" alt="2017-11-15--wa" width="570" height="468"></p>
<h3>Tas</h3>
<p>Over the past five years, investors have averaged 30.3% of new mortgage demand in the state while in September 2017 investors accounted for a slightly higher 33.3% of new mortgage demand.</p>
<p><img src="https://www.corelogic.com.au/sites/default/files/styles/article_image_570w_/public/2017-11/2017-11-15-tas.png" alt="2017-11-15--tas" width="570" height="470"></p>
<h3>NT</h3>
<p>After peaking at 61.5% of new mortgage demand in June 2014, investors have slumped to just 34.1% of demand in September 2017 which is much lower than the five year average of 49.2%.</p>
<p><img src="https://www.corelogic.com.au/sites/default/files/styles/article_image_570w_/public/2017-11/2017-11-15-nt.png" alt="2017-11-15--nt" width="570" height="460"></p>
<h3>ACT</h3>
<p>Investors currently account for 38.2% of new mortgage demand which is lower than the five year average of 43.0% and much lower than the historic high of 50.4% all the way back in June 2000.</p>
<p><img src="https://www.corelogic.com.au/sites/default/files/styles/article_image_570w_/public/2017-11/2017-11-15-act.png" alt="2017-11-15--act" width="570" height="464"></p>
<p>The data shows that as mortgage demand from investors, particularly in NSW, has slowed, so too has the rate of value growth.  In fact, Sydney dwelling values are now falling as investor demand continues to fade. Melbourne has also seen value growth slow although not to the same magnitude as Sydney however, investor participation over recent years in Vic has not been as significant as in NSW.  Outside of NSW and Vic, investors have not been the most significant source of new mortgage housing demand over recent years.</p>
<p>A similar trend was evident when credit conditions were tightened after the first round of APRA’s macroprudential policy changes through 2015 and early 2016.</p>
<p>With investor demand continuing to reduce due to tighter credit conditions, low yields and affordability constraints, it is reasonable to expect that this will have the greatest impact on NSW housing markets followed by those in Vic.  Elsewhere, the changing landscape may slow markets a little but other states and territories have largely seen demand over recent years driven by owner occupiers.  If anything, the lack of value growth in these market, superior affordability and less demand from investors may make buying conditions slightly more favourable for owner occupiers.</p>
<p><em>Cameron Kusher is head of research for CoreLogic. You can contact him <a href="https://blog.corelogic.com.au/about/"><span class="s2">here</span></a>.</em></p>
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ckusher-ujnxiKuFQs

Is the market slowdown driven by investors?

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<p><span>The Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) released demographic data for the December 2014 quarter yesterday. The data highlighted a continuing slowdown in the rate of national population growth, with the quarterly increase now lower than slump in population growth recorded during the GFC. In particular the mining states and territories are recording the biggest slowdown in population growth fueled by a slowdown in both interstate and overseas migration.</span></p>
<p><a href="/images/2015/06/26/Chart-13.jpg" target="_blank"><span>Click to enlarge</span></a></p>
<p><span><img src="/images/2015/06/26/Chart-13.jpg" alt=""></span></p>
<p> </p>
<p><span>The data showed that throughout 2014 Australia added another 330,202 persons.  Although this is still a relatively high rate of population growth, it is the lowest annual increase in population since the population increased by 327,637 persons over the 12 months to September 2011.  Over the final quarter of the year the national population increased by 64,010 persons which was its lowest quarterly increase since June 2006 (52,834).</span></p>
<p><a href="/images/2015/06/26/Chart-23.jpg" target="_blank"><span>Click to enlarge</span></a></p>
<p><span><img src="/images/2015/06/26/Chart-23.jpg" alt=""></span></p>
<p> </p>
<p><span>At a national level population growth is comprised of overseas migration (arrivals minus departures) and natural increase (births minus deaths), any interstate migration is neutral at a national level.  Over the past year, the country experienced a natural increase of 146,067 persons and net overseas migration of 184,135 persons.  The rate of annual natural increase is at its lowest level since December 2006 (139,793) and annual net overseas migration is at its lowest level since June 2011 (180,372).  On a quarterly basis, natural increase was recorded at 36,517 persons (its lowest level since December 2006) and net overseas migration was recorded at 46,034 persons (its lowest level since June 2011).</span></p>
<p><a href="/images/2015/06/26/Chart-33.jpg" target="_blank"><span>Click to enlarge</span></a></p>
<p><img src="/images/2015/06/26/Chart-33.jpg" alt=""></p>
<p>With the national population increasing by 330,202 persons over the past year, the majority of population growth has taken place in the largest states.  NSW (31.2%) and Vic (30.7%) accounted for a combined 61.9% of national population growth.  If you add Qld (19.4%) and WA (12.1%) the four largest states accounted for 93.5% of national population growth over the year.</p>
<p>As far as the rate of population growth goes, for the first time since September 2006 WA is no longer the state with the most rapid rate of population growth with Vic taking over the mantle. Vic’s population increased by 1.8% over the year followed by: WA (1.6%), NSW and Qld (both 1.4%), ACT (1.1%), SA (0.9%), NT (0.4%) and Tas (0.3%).  Qld, WA and NT in particular are seeing the impact of the mining downturn with fewer workers required in these states as the pipeline of major infrastructure projects winds down translating into slower population growth. Two years ago these states were recording annual population growth of 2.0% in Qld, 3.7% in WA and 2.8% in NT.</p>
<p><a href="/images/2015/06/26/Chart-42.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></p>
<p><img src="/images/2015/06/26/Chart-42.jpg" alt=""></p>
<p><span>Net overseas migration has been slowing at a national level and as the above chart shows, all states are experiencing a fall in net overseas migration.  The full brunt of the slowdown in net overseas migration is once again being felt by the resource states.  Annual net overseas migration is -30.9% lower in Qld, -47.6% lower in WA and -56.0% lower in NT.  All other states except for NSW (+1.9%) and ACT (+4.1%) have recorded a fall in net overseas migration over the year, but nowhere near the extent of the mining states and territories.  The declines in these states were recorded at -4.2% in Vic, -9.0% in SA and -2.9% in Tas.  The data also highlights that overseas migrants have a clear preference to settle in the larger states.  Over the past year, 37.9% of net migration occurred in NSW with a further 30.4% in Vic, 13.2% in Qld and 10.3% in WA.</span></p>
<p><a href="/images/2015/06/26/Chart-53.jpg" target="_blank"><span>Click to enlarge</span></a></p>
<p><span><img src="/images/2015/06/26/Chart-53.jpg" alt=""></span></p>
<p> </p>
<p>At a national level net interstate migration has no impact however, it does have a significant impact across individual states.  Over the 12 months to December 2014, there were 335,256 interstate movements across the Australian states.  Historically Qld has attracted as high number of interstate migrants however; net interstate migration to the state has slowed sharply over recent years.  Across the states, Vic now attracts the most net interstate migrants (9,336) followed by Qld (5,598) and these are the only two states that have recorded a net gain in interstate migration over the year.  Vic’s net gain from interstate migration is a record high while migration to Qld is at its lowest level on record.  The net outflow of residents from the remaining states was recorded at: -5,572 persons in NSW, -2,744 in SA, -400 in WA, -1,278 in Tas, -3,392 in NT and -1,548 in ACT.  Despite the net outflow, the net number of residents leaving NSW is at a record low.  On the other hand the loss of residents from WA is the largest since September 2003 and the outflow from NT is the largest on record.</p>
<p>In terms of natural increase the states with the largest overall populations also have the greatest natural increase.  There has been a sharp decline in natural increase in NSW over the past few years while natural increase is trending higher in WA.  The state-by-state shares of natural increase are: 26.5% in NSW, 24.8% in Vic, 23.5% in Qld, 4.9% in SA, 14.8% in WA, 1.0% in Tas, 2.0% in NT and 2.6% in ACT.</p>
<p>The demographic data highlights challenges for the Australian economy and individual states. Gross domestic product has been slowing and is much lower on a per capita basis. With population growth slowing and set to slow further in coming quarters (as foreshadowed in the monthly overseas arrivals and departures data) this poses a challenge for the national economy.  The resource states in particular are being impacted as they are attracting fewer migrants from both interstate and overseas. Conversely, NSW and Vic (which are a proxy for Sydney and Melbourne) are the places that both domestic and international migrants want to head to. </p>
<p>This in turn fuels demand for housing, creates the need for more jobs and requires more spending on infrastructure. To-date it doesn’t look as if the sharp rises in home values in Sydney and to a lesser degree Melbourne over recent years is stopping migrants heading to these areas. You would have to think that at some point this will change but no one has a crystal ball to know exactly when that inflection point will occur. Particularly given how low the cost of debt currently is with interest rates so low, furthermore rental pressures are easing given already high new housing construction and a record high pipeline of approvals to potentially follow.</p>
<p><em>Cameron Kusher is RP Data’s senior research analyst. Follow Cameron on Twitter <a href="https://twitter.com/cmkusher" target="_blank">here</a>. </em></p>
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Australia’s rate of population growth continues to slow: Cameron Kusher

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<p>EXPERT OBSERVATION</p>
<p>There is a bit of economic gloom around with reports of the residential market slowing down and house prices starting to come off and decrease in our major capital cities.</p>
<p>Nobody uses the word “crash” but many commentators hint at a housing market crisis. The retail sector continues its own steep decline and add to this that the Australian dollar has fallen to its lowest level since 2016 and is forecast to continue to fall even lower.</p>
<p>While these conditions make banking and finance types jittery and also make great Page One headlines in newspapers – they also present a perfect opportunity for the next wave of investors in Australian property: Aussie ex-pats.</p>
<p>It is easy to forget about Aussie ex-pats as they are literally not here, and are spread across the globe but mostly concentrated in the United Kingdom and United States of America.</p>
<p>Studies show that there are more than 346,000 Australian ex-pats around the world and most left our shores for their careers with 43% of expatriates citing 'better employment opportunities', 36% 'professional development' and 32% gave 'higher income' as a reason for emigrating.</p>
<p>While the ex-pats pursue successful and fulfilling careers overseas, they become older and start to settle down and inevitably start to either think about or plan when they will return to Australia. For some this is driven by having children and wanting them to have an Australian education and for others it is about ageing family or simply just wanting to come home.</p>
<p>The combination of a slowing residential market and low Australian dollar suddenly makes locking in investment properties back at home much cheaper and more appealing. Put simply, the falling Australian dollar and softening house prices could mean Aussie expat investors could snap up two properties instead of one – or go for a larger house instead of an apartment.</p>
<p>But it isn’t all smooth sailing when parking their hard-earned cash back on home turf and expats will need to do their homework and also seek professional advice as the processes they need to navigate can be a minefield.</p>
<p>Some expats can find the lending process a little arduous – especially if they don’t already own property in Australia.</p>
<p>Banks typically class expats as a non-standard borrower and may require a higher deposit and more stringent proof of income requirements.</p>
<p>It is also critical for expats thinking of building a portfolio of Australian investment properties to consider their individual tax position and whether they are an Australian resident for tax purposes.</p>
<p>Amid the economic gloom our own Aussie expats could be a beacon of light and add significantly to investment sales in coming years.</p>
<p><em>James Nihill is the Managing Director of Patrick Leo</em></p>
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j.ballantyne1990-6AQqhLzZaK

Aussie Expats the next wave of investors: James Nihill

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<p>Dwelling values across the country have slipped a further 0.2 percent over the month of June to be 0.8 percent lower over the year, according to CoreLogic's June Home Value Index.</p>
<p>It's the ninth consecutive month on month fall in national dwelling values, taking them 1.3 percent less than their September peak.</p>
<p>Melbourne was one of the weakest performers over June, with its 0.4 percent declines only being topped by Perth (0.5 percent).</p>
<p>Click here <a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2018/7/2/dwelling%20change.jpg" target="_blank">to enlarge.</a></p>
<p><img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2018/7/2/dwelling%20change.jpg" alt=""></p>
<p>CoreLogic research director Tim Lawless said despite recent and consistent monthly falls, national dwelling values remain 32.4% higher than five years ago.</p>
<p>“This highlights the wealth creation that many home owners have experienced over the recent growth phase, but also the fact that recent home buyers could be facing negative equity.”</p>
<p>“Tighter finance conditions and less investment activity have been the primary drivers of weaker housing market conditions and we don’t see either of these factors relaxing over the second half of 2018, despite APRA’s 10 per cent investment speed limit being lifted this month.”</p>
<p>The June quarter results saw national dwelling values fall by half a percent, driven by a 0.8% drop in values across the combined capital cities.</p>
<p>The capital city decline was partially offset by a 0.6% rise in values across the combined regional markets.</p>
<p>The largest decline amongst the capitals over the June quarter was in Melbourne, with dwelling values down 1.4%, followed by Sydney (-0.9%), Darwin (-0.8%) and Perth (-0.7%).</p>
<p>Hobart continues to show the strongest capital gain trend amongst the capital cities with dwelling values rising a further 2.3% over the past three months. Although housing market trends remain very positive across Hobart, the quarterly pace has eased relative to the March quarter when values were up 3.4%. Values also trended higher across Adelaide (+0.9%), Brisbane (+0.3%) and Canberra (+0.2%) over the second quarter of 2018.</p>
<p>Declines are more pronounced across the most expensive quarter of the market. Based on the CoreLogic stratified hedonic index, values across the most expensive quartile of capital city properties were down 1.5% over the past three months while the least expensive quartile saw values hold firm. Similarly, over the past twelve months, the most expensive end of the market recorded a decline of 3.6%, while the least expensive end of the market recorded a 1.4% gain.</p>
<p>Declines across the most expensive sector of the capital city market is largely attributable to the declines in Sydney and Melbourne, where the upper quartile of property values fell by 7.3% and 2.5% respectively over the past twelve months.</p>
<p>“A surge in first home buyer activity has helped support demand across the more affordable price points in these cities," Lawless said.</p>
<p>Despite its capital city dwelling market cooling, some of the more affordable regions of Melbourne remain in a strong growth position.</p>
<p>Across the capital cities regions, five of the top 10 best performing areas over the last financial year came from across the outer areas of the Melbourne metropolitan area.</p>
<p>Click here<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2018/7/2/regional-declines.jpg" target="_blank"> to enlarge.</a></p>
<p><img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2018/7/2/regional-declines.jpg" alt=""></p>
<p>The Mornington Peninsula showed the highest annual capital gain outside of Hobart.</p>
<p> </p>
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jrobinson-rf4aSBido9

National dwelling values drop for ninth consecutive month led by Melbourne slowdown: CoreLogic

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<p class="p1"><span class="s1">Homeowners re-emerged from the summer break to list their property in a slowing market as listings across the nation rose in February by 4.6 percent to 317,984, according to SQM Research.</span></p>
<p class="p1"><span class="s1">It was the nation's two biggest property markets, Sydney and Melbourne, that recorded the highest rise in listings.</span></p>
<p class="p1"><span class="s1">They had a 19.3 percent jump in listings, closely followed by Melbourne at 19.1 percent.</span></p>
<p class="p1">Sydney’s listings are up by 22.3 percent from the same time last year, reflecting a large increase in properties available for sale as some homeowners seek to take profits given a slowing in the property market.</p>
<p class="p1"><span class="s1">In contrast to other capital cities, listings were down in Hobart by 2.7 percent in February, to be down 31.8 percent from a year earlier, with a deep shortage of homes available for sale. </span></p>
<p class="p1"><span class="s1">Melbourne stock levels also remain down from last year by about 10 percent, though a shortage of properties for sales has eased in that city.<span class="Apple-converted-space"> </span></span></p>
<p class="p1"><span class="s1">Click here<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2018/3/6/sqm1.jpg" target="_blank"> to enlarge.</a></span></p>
<p class="p1"><span class="s1"><img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2018/3/6/sqm1.jpg" alt=""></span></p>
<p class="p1"><span class="s1">In Canberra, listings jumped by 15.5 percent, to be up 5 percent from the same time last year. In Brisbane, stock on market rose by 2.4 percent in February while in Perth listings rose by 2.9 percent. Listings barely changed in Darwin with a rise of just 0.1 percent over the month, to be up by just 0.4 percent over the year.</span></p>
<p class="p1"><span class="s1">Louis Christopher, managing director of SQM Research said the rise was expected.</span></p>
<p class="p1"><span class="s1">“The rise in February listings was expected as homeowners listed their properties with the new year well underway," he said.</span></p>
<p class="p1"><span class="s1">"That helped to take the pressure off asking property prices, which were down in capital cities over the month to 6 March, especially in Sydney.</span></p>
<p class="p1"><span class="s1">“We are also seeing increasing levels of stock hit the market in Melbourne, which may help to ease property price growth over the first half of 2018.<span class="Apple-converted-space"> </span></span></p>
<p class="p1"><span class="s1">“However, in Hobart, home seekers are frustrated by a steep shortfall of properties available for sale as a combination of sharp price rises and the small amount of residential property there keep listings down,” he said.</span></p>
<p class="p2"><span class="s1"><strong>Asking Prices</strong></span></p>
<p class="p1"><span class="s1">Capital city average asking prices fell one percent for houses and 0.7 percent for units for the month to 6 March. The largest monthly fall came in Sydney, where asking house prices fell 1.5 percent and asking unit prices slipped 0.6 percent. Over the year, prices are up by 5.5 percent and 5.9 percent, respectively.</span></p>
<p class="p1"><span class="s1">Gains too have moderated in Hobart, with asking price for units up by just 1.1 percent over the year after falling 1.3 percent over the month. Asking house prices rose by 5.7 percent over the year after falling 0.4 percent over the month despite the shortage of properties for sale.</span></p>
<p class="p1"><span class="s1">Year-on-year, asking prices are up most in Melbourne, with asking prices for houses up 19.9 percent and unit prices up 13.7 percent.<span class="Apple-converted-space">  </span>Canberra too has recorded strong gains, with asking house prices up 16.6 percent over the year and asking unit prices up 7.8 percent.<span class="Apple-converted-space"> </span></span></p>
<p class="p1"><span class="s1">Click here <a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2018/3/6/sqm2.jpg" target="_blank">to enlarge.</a></span></p>
<p class="p1"><span class="s1"><img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2018/3/6/sqm2.jpg" alt=""></span></p>
<p class="p1"><span class="s1"> </span></p>
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Higher listings and lower asking prices in a slowing market: SQM Research

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<div>House prices are likely to rise only modestly across Asia-Pacific (APAC) in 2018, with regulatory tightening, rising interest rates and declining affordability acting as a drag in most markets, says Fitch Ratings in a new report. <br><br>Monetary tightening in the next few years - globally and within the region - will gradually bring to an end the ideal conditions that have supported housing markets over much of the last decade.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Click here <a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2018/1/24/fitch%201.jpg" target="_blank">to enlarge.</a>
</div>
<div> </div>
<div> <img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2018/1/24/fitch%201.jpg" alt="">
</div>
<div> </div>
<div>However, tightening is unlikely to be enough to trigger a sharp correction during 2018, Fitch suggest.<br><br>Regulators have taken steps to contain price rises in most of APAC's major markets in recent years.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>"There were signs of these steps gaining traction in 2017 in the main hotspots - Australia, New Zealand and China - where price growth slowed from the double- to single-digits.<br><br>"Several APAC markets will soon start to feel the impact of China's limits on overseas foreign-currency transfers.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>"Australia and New Zealand have attracted particularly strong Chinese investment.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>"Australia has placed its own limits on foreign, non-resident buyers, while we expect New Zealand to introduce restrictions this year.<br><br>"We forecast house-price growth across Australia's eight capital cities to slow to 2%, from 5% in 2017.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>"Low interest rates and high population growth are likely to support prices, but rising supply, falling rental yields, tighter lending standards, foreign-ownership restrictions, and income growth lagging cost of living increases will dampen price gains.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>"Moreover, stable economic performance and prudent underwriting standards are likely to help contain increases in arrears as mortgage rates rise.'<br><br>Fitch forecast arrears in most APAC markets to remain below 0.5%.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>"The impact is likely to be slightly more pronounced in Australia and New Zealand as house-price growth stabilises, especially in big cities.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>"Household debt is high in both countries and most mortgages have flexible rates, which leaves borrowers more exposed to faster-than-expected interest rate rises." </div>
<div>
<br>There global report advised in New Zealand, strong population growth and sluggish housing construction - particularly in Auckland - are likely to result in continued supply shortages, despite regulatory tightening. We expect house-price growth to pick up, but only slightly, to 3.0%.<br><br>Fitch's Global Housing and Mortgage Outlook includes analysis of house prices, arrears and mortgage lending volumes for 22 countries, including Australia, China, Japan, Korea, New Zealand and Singapore in APAC.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>National house prices are forecast to rise this year in 19 of 22 markets highlighted by Fitch Ratings in a new report, but growth is expected to slow in most markets and risks are growing as the prospect of gradually rising mortgage rates comes into view this year. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>Click here <a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2018/1/24/fitch%204.jpg" target="_blank">to enlarge.</a>
</div>
<div> </div>
<div><img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2018/1/24/fitch%204.jpg" alt=""></div>
<div> </div>
<div>"Arrears are at very low levels in most markets. They will only move in one direction as mortgage rates rise slowly due to higher policy rates and more expensive bank funding from the gradual unwinding of quantitative easing. Floating-rate loans and borrowers refinancing to new rates will be first affected," said Suzanne Albers, Senior Director, Structured Finance, Fitch Ratings. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>"We expect home prices to stabilise in Sydney and Melbourne. However, if corrections are only limited after several years of very high growth, the risk of large price declines in future downturns remains," added Ms. Albers. </div>
<div><span style="font-family: Georgia, serif;"> </span></div>
<div><span><span style="font-family: Georgia, serif;"><span> </span></span></span></div>
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Australian house price growth to slow to 2 percent: Fitch Ratings

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<p>Rating agency Moody’s has sounded a caveat for banks in Australian, Canada and Sweden, saying they are increasingly sensitive to economic shocks that could result from a slump in house prices after a more than 16-year surge. </p>
<p>In the report, "Banking -- Global; Possible house price drop poses some risk for Canadian, Swedish, Australian banks," Moody's Investors Service compares the rise in house prices and household indebtedness. </p>
<p>Between 2000 and 2016, house prices rose by 144% in Sweden, by 115% in Canada and by 113% in Australia. At the same time, household indebtedness has risen sharply, and mortgages now account for 63% of the banking systems' total loan books in Australia, 48% in Sweden and 39% in Canada. </p>
<p>“Housing market corrections are often triggered by an economic slowdown, but even when they occur without any economic trigger, the attendant uncertainty can weigh on consumer confidence. This can in turn contribute to a slowdown in economic growth, which if severe enough can increase losses across the full range of banks' loan portfolios,” Moody’s said in the report.</p>
<p>“Between May and September 2017, we took rating actions in all three banking systems to reflect this risk, although lenders in these countries remain among our most highly rated globally.” </p>
<p>Moody's base case is that house prices will continue to climb in Canada and Australia, albeit at a slower pace over the next 12 to 18 months, whereas preliminary data suggest that the housing market may already be turning in Sweden. </p>
<p>“If there were a house price correction in any of these countries, the combination of protective features built into their mortgage markets, banks' underwriting practices and full recourse loans would limit mortgage losses,” it said. </p>
<p>"Nonetheless, banks in these countries are exposed to second order effects," said Louise Lundberg, a Vice President and Senior Credit Officer at Moody's. </p>
<p>Lundberg elaborated by saying that an economic slowdown that would likely accompany a substantial house price correction would lead to higher losses on consumer loans, commercial real estate loans, and loans to consumer-exposed corporates.</p>
<p>In most scenarios, Moody's said it expects banks in these three countries to be able to absorb any loan losses through their earnings. </p>
<p>“Any impact on their capital levels, which we currently assess as strong to adequate, would likely be limited,” it said. </p>
<p>Assuming unchanged earnings (although these would likely be negatively impacted in a stressed scenario), loan losses could increase to 2.2% of gross loans in Canada from 0.4% in 2016, to 1.8% in Australia from 0.2%, and to 1.4% in Sweden from 0.1% before eating into capital. </p>
<p>In Australia, macroprudential measures recently announced by the regulator will likely constrain credit growth, particularly growth in loans to property investors, who account for around 35% of all new mortgages. These measures, along with more stringent underwriting criteria, are likely to reduce customers' borrowing capacity. Overall, we expect the rate of house price appreciation over the next 12 months to slow. </p>
<p>Rising house prices have led to a sharp decline in housing affordability in all three countries (see Exhibit 2). </p>
<p><a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/11/21/Exhibit2.png" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></p>
<p><img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2017/11/21/Exhibit2.png" alt=""></p>
<p>Canadian, Swedish and Australian household debt has also risen strongly (see Exhibit 3). Household leverage is highest in Australia, where it reached 212% of net disposable income in 2015, and has risen further since. This compares with 183% in Sweden and 176% in Canada (2016 data). </p>
<p><a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/11/21/Exhibit3.png" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></p>
<p><img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2017/11/21/Exhibit3.png" alt=""></p>
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prateek24-ezbwHMbNAk

Australian banks among international lenders exposed to second order housing impact: Moody's

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<p><img src="https://counter.theconversation.edu.au/content/80072/count.gif?distributor=republish-lightbox-advanced" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1"></p>
<p>Looking at data, there is no evidence to support the notion that house prices have <a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/https://www.abc.net.au/news/2017-06-02/have-we-finally-reached-peak-house-prices/8584470" target="_blank" style="font-family: Tahoma, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 12.16px;">peaked</a><span style="color: #333333; font-family: Tahoma, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 12.16px;"> or are on the cusp of a </span><a href="https://www.theaustralian.com.au/news/inquirer/heated-house-market-hits-a-ceiling-in-sydney-and-melbourne/news-story/08a7b3f7cdb2feecfbcb15dd82746358" target="_blank" style="font-family: Tahoma, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 12.16px;">downward trend</a><span style="color: #333333; font-family: Tahoma, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif; font-size: 12.16px;">.</span></p>
<p>House prices in Australian capital cities <a href="https://www.corelogic.com.au/news/capital-city-dwelling-values-rise-0-8-over-june-quarter" target="_blank">rose slightly in June</a> after <a href="https://www.corelogic.com.au/news/multiple-indicators-point-to-softer-housing-market-conditions" target="_blank">falling in May</a>. But <a href="https://www.corelogic.com.au/research/monthly-indices" target="_blank">house price indexes</a> only show what’s happening in the market over a short time frame. Housing markets <a href="https://www.emeraldinsight.com/doi/pdfplus/10.1108/IJHMA-07-2016-0052" target="_blank">are volatile</a> and you could just be looking at a seasonal blip.</p>
<p>Looking at the market fundamentals, there are no signs of a housing market slowdown. These indicators include economic and population growth, the unemployment rate, new housing construction, and auction clearance rates. They give us an idea both of the overall demand in the market, as well as the ability to pay for housing.</p>
<p>As economic and population growth increase, for example, there is both more money to spend as well as more people in need of housing. The rate of new housing construction tells us what will happen to housing supply, and the percentage of housing successfully sold at auctions gives us an idea of where we are in the house price cycle.</p>
<p><iframe src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/ldRPb/7/" frameborder="0" scrolling="no" width="100%" height="600"></iframe></p>
<h2>Market fundamentals and key indicators</h2>
<p>As you can see in the chart below, economic growth has been relatively strong in both New South Wales and Victoria. Growth in Gross State Product for both states was 2.6% in 2014-15, and even stronger in 2015-16; this was higher than the GDP growth rate of Australia overall.</p>
<p>This suggests that the local economies of both Melbourne and Sydney are performing better than the overall Australian economy. And a strong economy feeds into more demand for housing.</p>
<p><iframe src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/yahFE/4/" frameborder="0" scrolling="no" width="100%" height="400"></iframe></p>
<p>The next thing to look at is the unemployment rate. A low unemployment rate means that fewer people are under pressure to sell their houses or default on their mortgages. This means the chance of sharp price correction in the housing market is lower when the unemployment rate is low.</p>
<p>Again, the unemployment rate in both New South Wales and Victoria is relatively low, around 4.8% in NSW and 6% in Victoria, <a href="https://lmip.gov.au/default.aspx?LMIP/Downloads/ABSLabourForceRegion" target="_blank">compared with other states</a>. Unemployment is almost 7% in South Australia, for example.</p>
<p><iframe src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/PYRCD/6/" frameborder="0" scrolling="no" width="100%" height="400"></iframe></p>
<p>The auction clearance rate shows the percentage of housing that was successfully sold out of all the auctions that took place. The clearance rate roughly tracks housing prices - a high rate will normally be observed when house prices are high, and the reverse is also true. For example, the auction clearance rate was around 36-50% in Sydney in 2008.</p>
<p>Although the auction clearance rates in Melbourne and Sydney have dropped in recent months, they are still around 70%. This is comparable with the same period last year, giving no indication of a sudden movement in house prices one way or the other.</p>
<p><iframe src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/ZYdvt/5/" frameborder="0" scrolling="no" width="100%" height="400"></iframe></p>
<p>The next indicator is the proportion of vacant properties in the housing supply, also known as the vacancy rate. This is used as a gauge of whether there is too much or too little supply of housing in the market. Normally, a housing market is cooling if there are many vacant properties.</p>
<p>The vacancy rate has remained stable in <a href="https://www.urban.com.au/property-observer" target="_blank">Sydney</a> and <a href="https://www.urban.com.au/property-observer" target="_blank">Melbourne</a> recently, within a range of 1.7-2.2%. This suggests that there is little evidence of an oversupply of housing, and that housing demand is strong in both markets.</p>
<p><iframe src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/AS04o/1/" frameborder="0" scrolling="no" width="100%" height="192"></iframe></p>
<p>Sydney and Melbourne show signs of strong population growth. This is true not just now, but over the past 6 years. As we can see in the following graph, both cities have recorded growth rates ranging between 13,000 and 43,000 people per quarter.</p>
<p>The strong population growth rate reflects that the fundamental demand for housing in both cities are high. Although more new dwellings have been completed in recent years, the levels are <a href="https://www.abs.gov.au/AUSSTATS/abs@.nsf/DetailsPage/8752.0Dec%202016?OpenDocument" target="_blank">far below population growth</a>. This suggests that there is still more demand than supply in the housing markets in Sydney and Melbourne.</p>
<p><iframe src="https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/V70xi/5/" frameborder="0" scrolling="no" width="100%" height="400"></iframe></p>
<p>The discrepancy between <a href="https://www.corelogic.com.au/news/multiple-indicators-point-to-softer-housing-market-conditions" target="_blank">May’s decline in capital city house prices</a>, and the other indicators that show no slow down in demand, illustrate the problem. These other indicators give you a better idea of overall demand for housing, which is what drives prices over the longer term.</p>
<p>Based on the prices alone, it is too early to tell whether the housing markets in Sydney and Melbourne are slowing or if they are on a downward trend. And the other indicators of the wider economy show us that housing demand is strong. It is only when this changes that you will know that house prices are slowing.</p>
<hr>
<p><em>This article included contributions from Mustapha Bangura, a PhD student researching housing affordability in Greater Western Sydney.</em></p>
<p><span><a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/chyi-lin-lee-368009" target="_blank">Chyi Lin Lee</a>, Associate Professor of Property, <em><a href="https://theconversation.com/institutions/western-sydney-university-1092" target="_blank">Western Sydney University</a></em></span></p>
<p>This article was originally published on <a href="https://theconversation.com" target="_blank">The Conversation</a>. Read the <a href="https://theconversation.com/how-to-tell-when-the-housing-market-is-slowing-80072" target="_blank">original article</a>.</p>
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Chyilinlee-JrdcVPxeuK

How to tell when the housing market is slowing

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<p>Sydney’s booming property market may be finally taking a breather from the scorching pace it has grown over the last few years.</p>
<p>The clearest indication comes from a slowdown in suburbs that were once hotbeds of investor activity. </p>
<p>Although property prices continue to grow across the Harbour City, the rate of growth is slowing most significantly in the west and south-west regions, Domain News reported citing new data.</p>
<p>AMP Capital chief economist Shane Oliver said slowing growth in these regions was “a canary in the coal mine in the sense [APRA] measures and a supply surge is starting to bite”.</p>
<p>“We saw this back in 2005, the west and south-west declines followed through to the inner west,” Dr Oliver said.</p>
<p>“And then it starts to show up in the north and east.</p>
<p>Clearance rates are also starting to slow, with a 67.1 percent rate over the Queen’s Birthday long weekend, a sign that the boom may be coming to an end.  </p>
<p>“The debate now is whether prices will fall or whether there is a deceleration this year with price falls next year,” Oliver was cited as saying by Domain.</p>
<p>Growth in asking prices – an indicator of price growth in the real time private treaty market – has started to slow in recent months. In the year to May 2017, asking prices in the south-west were up 2.3 percent, compared to the 11.9 percent growth experienced the year before.</p>
<p>This was the slowest annual growth since the boom began.</p>
<p>The western suburbs saw a similar pattern too, with 5.7 percent growth to May 2017 compared to 12.3 percent the year before. </p>
<p>In these areas there is now a “rush to market”, Domain Group chief economist Andrew Wilson noted.</p>
<p>In the west and south-west regions, the number of auctions rose 50 percent and 75 percent respectively in May 2017 compared to a year before. </p>
<p>“We typically see more sellers at the end of a boom,” Dr Wilson said.</p>
<p>But this has yet to be felt in other areas, where asking prices grew more than 8 per cent, with four areas in double figures.</p>
<p>In the inner west, growth was 11.9 percent over the year to May 2017.</p>
<p>Sydney’s rental yields are now the lowest in the country, at 3.31 percent for houses and 3.99 percent for apartments. This compares to a national average 4.42 percent for houses and 5.01 percent for apartments.</p>
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