Roy Morgan

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A large majority of Victorians approve of the way Premier Daniel Andrews is handling his job, according to a Roy Morgan Snap SMS survey on Victoria’s Stage 4 restrictions.
However, 76 per cent said the Victorian government should compensate small businesses not forced to close.
The current restrictions will continue until the end of September, with a longer roadmap keeping many businesses closed throughout October.
The survey asked respondents three questions from a pool of six to determine their attitudes towards the current government directives.
According to the results, only 38 per cent of Melbournians say the night-time curfew in Melbourne should end now, compared to only 31 per cent of country Victorians.
Over 80 per cent of respondents who identified with the ALP and Greens parties, supported Andrews’ handling, whilst only 43 per cent of L-NP approving of his leadership.
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/Screen%20Shot%202020-09-10%20at%202.11.03%20pm.png" alt="">
L-NP supporters also favoured ending the restrictions, with 51 per cent saying Melbourne restaurants should be able to provide table services.
Only 26 per cent of ALP supporters agreed, preferring to keep restrictions as they are.
The survey was conducted on Tuesday, September 8, with a Victoria-wide cross-section of 2,325 Victorians.
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Majority of Victorians approve of the Premier's handling of his job: Roy Morgan

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An estimated 828,000 mortgage holders were in ‘mortgage stress’ as Australia entered shutdown in March, according to new research from Roy Morgan.
This equates to roughly 18.2% of all mortgage holders, and  is a significant improvement on those considered to be in mortgage stress 12 months ago and represents the second-lowest level of mortgage stress in over a decade.
The findings were part of Roy Morgan’s latest Single Source Survey, which is based on in-depth interviews conducted with 50,000 Australians each year, including over 10,000 owner-occupied mortgage-holders.
The strong employment market leading up to the COVID-19 related shutdown in mid-March had kept incomes strong while at the same time the decline in interest rates to record lows over the past year has reduced mortgage repayments for many mortgage holders.
A large concern for Australia’s banks will be the impact of COVID-19 on the employment market.
Just over 2-in-3 mortgages rely on more than one income and the mortgage risk is typically very low for these mortgages.
The biggest driver of increased mortgage stress is a sudden drop in income – most often caused by the loss of a job and analysis shows that the impact of the loss of one income quadruples the level of risk for these mortgage holders.
Even a reduction in work caused by being stood down, or cuts to work hours, can have an effect.
A special survey undertaken by Roy Morgan shows that 10.5 million Australians have already reported a change to their employment status caused by COVID-19.
These impacts include having work hours reduced, being stood down, not having any work offered, being made redundant or having pay reduced for working the same number of hours – all of which clearly have a negative impact on income.
The proportion of mortgage holders classified as ‘At Risk’, or ‘Extremely at Risk’, is down on a year ago but those classified as ‘Extremely at Risk’ have increased after hitting a low in October.
In the three months to March 2020, 18.2% of mortgage holders were ‘At Risk’ (828,000), which is down from 21.5% (903,000) in March 2019.
Over the same period those ‘Extremely at Risk’ also decreased from 14.5% (594,000) to 12.6% (559,000), a drop of 35,000.
However, the number ‘Extremely at Risk’ hit a low of only 425,000 (10.7%) in October, following an RBA interest rate cut, and has since increased.
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Almost 20% of all mortgage holders suffered ‘mortgage stress' during March: Roy Morgan

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EXPERT OBSERVER
Strong jobs growth over the last year has helped drive down both unemployment and under-employment, however over 2 million Australians are still looking for work or looking for more work
Our data shows real unemployment and under-employment is at 2.17 million in September, representing 15.7% of the workforce. This marks a significant improvement over the last year with the measure declining 2.1% points following strong full-time jobs growth.
However, despite these positive signs, real unemployment and under-employment has now marked four straight years above 2 million, stretching back to September 2015 (1.99 million – 15.6%).
The interest rate cuts in June and July as well as significant income tax cuts legislated in recent months appear to have stabilised the economy after a rough start to 2019. The RBA’s decision to cut interest rates to a record low of only 0.75% in October will also provide additional stimulus.
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2019/10/15/Roy%20Morgan%20underemployment.jpg" alt="">
It’s also worth noting the RBA doesn’t have much room for further interest rate cuts in the remainder of this year and heading into 2020. There are several candidates to increase economic uncertainty in the next few months include the US-China trade war, a messy Brexit ‘divorce deal’ between the UK and the EU or even a risk of conflict in the Middle East.
If any of these were to escalate over the next year, the RBA, as well as the Federal Government, would have to consider more unconventional means to ensure the Australian economy keeps growing and providing jobs for an increasing population.  
Michele Levine is the CEO of Roy Morgan.
Roy Morgan employment series September highlights
In September 1.2 million Australians were unemployed (8.7% of the workforce) with an additional 970,000 (7.0%) now under-employed.
- The workforce, which comprises employed Australians and those who are unemployed and looking for work, has increased year-on-year by 416,000 to 13,836,000. The increasing workforce was driven entirely by an increase in full-time employment as unemployment and part-time employment fell;
- Employment was up 470,000 to 12,634,000 in September 2019 – the rise in employment was driven by a significant increase in full-time employment of 773,000 to 8,467,000. However, over the past year part-time employment has declined by 303,000 to 4,167,000;
- Unemployment was down 54,000 on a year ago to 1,202,000 Australians and the unemployment rate is down by 0.7% to 8.7%. In addition under-employment is down by 155,000 to 972,000 Australians (down 1.4% to 7% of the workforce) over the past year which includes Australians working part-time and looking for more work;
- Roy Morgan’s unemployment figure of 8.7% for August is higher than the <a href="http://icm-tracking.meltwater.com/link.php?DynEngagement=true&amp;H=FcQ5do3Mtm%2F2JnP%2FxXFcY%2BL9mOkU%2Fad4G7kfqxVfSdkEEq1vNf2gyySaRFEPQL1%2Bi9ipkiUFRCKm00AkHYvGhrLiJHyUZ39UtsXT8roOnEVDSeYCVw9OJsMaR7qoClmuQ7FnqRmFIc4%3D&amp;G=0&amp;R=http%3A%2F%2Fabs.gov.au%2FAUSSTATS%2Fabs%40.nsf%2Fmf%2F6202.0%3Fopendocument&amp;I=20191015051433.0000007b2c8f%40mail6-41-usnbn1&amp;X=MHwxMDQ2NzU4OjVkYTU1MDBkYTM0NmMyNzhmNzA2MTM0Yzs%3D&amp;S=2jyKXPgq0a5bJjyFUSJjaEuGst94S_XP0LIhm9ZcBTo" target="_blank">current ABS estimate for August 2019 of 5.3%</a>, although the gap between the two measures is closer than usual. Roy Morgan’s under-employment estimate of 7% is now slightly below the current <a href="http://icm-tracking.meltwater.com/link.php?DynEngagement=true&amp;H=FcQ5do3Mtm%2F2JnP%2FxXFcY%2BL9mOkU%2Fad4G7kfqxVfSdkEEq1vNf2gyySaRFEPQL1%2Bi9ipkiUFRCKm00AkHYvGhrLiJHyUZ39UtsXT8roOnEVDSeYCVw9OJsMaR7qoClmuQ7FnqRmFIc4%3D&amp;G=0&amp;R=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.abs.gov.au%2Fausstats%2Fabs%40.nsf%2Fmf%2F6202.0%3Fopendocument%26ref%3DHPKI&amp;I=20191015051433.0000007b2c8f%40mail6-41-usnbn1&amp;X=MHwxMDQ2NzU4OjVkYTU1MDBkYTM0NmMyNzhmNzA2MTM0Yzs%3D&amp;S=K2aAgJimDljPFdUm4K9Tzu-E-I2U2LeVVHjAVLbQK5Y" target="_blank">ABS under-employment estimate of 8.6%</a>;
- Roy Morgan’s total unemployment and under-employment of 2,174,000 Australians (15.7% of the workforce) in September, down 209,000 on a year ago, is larger than figures usually proffered, but the biennial ABS survey the ‘<a href="http://icm-tracking.meltwater.com/link.php?DynEngagement=true&amp;H=FcQ5do3Mtm%2F2JnP%2FxXFcY%2BL9mOkU%2Fad4G7kfqxVfSdkEEq1vNf2gyySaRFEPQL1%2Bi9ipkiUFRCKm00AkHYvGhrLiJHyUZ39UtsXT8roOnEVDSeYCVw9OJsMaR7qoClmuQ7FnqRmFIc4%3D&amp;G=0&amp;R=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.abs.gov.au%2Fausstats%2Fabs%40.nsf%2Fmf%2F6239.0&amp;I=20191015051433.0000007b2c8f%40mail6-41-usnbn1&amp;X=MHwxMDQ2NzU4OjVkYTU1MDBkYTM0NmMyNzhmNzA2MTM0Yzs%3D&amp;S=VJo-K5kqz77QZOCYbmpq7jLLG35UQYMJf8Bh1cULqb8" target="_blank">Barriers and Incentives to Labour Force Participation</a>’ last released in 2017 claims a much higher figure of 2.7 million Australians would like a job or to work more hours – including 1.1 million people the ABS said wanted a job but are excluded from the Labour Force.
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Real unemployment and under-employment stuck above two million: Roy Morgan

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The value of assets held by Australians has almost doubled over a 12 year period, a new report has found. 
From 2007 to 2019, asset values are up 96%, while debt has increased by 78.6% over the same period, according to the <a id="LPlnk178519" href="http://icm-tracking.meltwater.com/link.php?DynEngagement=true&amp;H=btYXC68syxmDVppbhVzFoYHdeMNV9070xvOlf%2FNdDQ0wXj6aidRhm%2BU%2B3pvvHdsrpvIIhgT9m2JwAuxVME0Zp2SQWJMw%2Fl0vyvX5XpPY4CpJ8TwkzTJoFeV9rdYJuyfe%2FYEc7gWVJ%2B0%3D&amp;G=0&amp;R=https%3A%2F%2Fstore.roymorgan.com%2Fproduct%2FRoy-Morgan-Wealth-Report-13397&amp;I=20190711015504.00000194d375%40mail6-114-ussnn1&amp;X=MHwxMDQ2NzU4OjVkMjU4OWEyYzVkZmE3ZjMyZjJjYTFiZTs%3D&amp;S=iwIWS64fklsraWL5xgm3auOxsrFdtkaHt3FvSlv0LBQ" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" data-auth="NotApplicable">Roy Morgan Wealth Report</a>. 
Over this period, which covers the period from just before the start of the global financial crisis, net wealth has increased by 98.7%.
Even after accounting for population growth and inflation, the average Australian is better off, the report said. 
The report is drawn from over half a million in-depth face-to-face interviews conducted in Australians’ homes over the period from 2007 to 2019.
The second edition of the Wealth Report focuses how net wealth has changed since just before the onset of the global financial crisis.
Australia performed very strongly over the past 12 years compared with other OECD nations – particularly in Europe where many nations went backwards over the same period, it said. 
Key findings of the report include:
<ul>
<li>The value of assets held by Australians has almost doubled from 2007 to 2019 (up 96.0%). This is faster than the increase in debt of 78.6% over the same period. As a result net wealth is now 98.7% higher in 2019 than it was in 2007. 
</li>
<li>Average per capita net wealth in real terms (adjusted for inflation), is 28.0% higher than it was in 2007 just before the onset of the global financial crisis. 
</li>
<li>Median net worth per capita in 2007 was only $124,000, rising to $135,900, up 8.8% after allowing for inflation. The median value is a more representative metric in such a highly skewed market, as 50% are above it and 50% below, it is the central value. 
</li>
<li>Women have improved their average net wealth position relative to men, with males now holding an average of 12.3% more wealth than women, while in 2007, they had a much higher 27.4% advantage. 
</li>
<li>Roughly half Australia’s personal wealth continues to be held in the form of owner occupied housing (49.8%), down slightly from 51.6% in 2007, while superannuation assets make up an increasingly higher portion, rising from 19.2% to 24.4% of our wealth since 2007. 
</li>
<li>The following chart shows that the average personal assets are now worth 8.1 times average debts, compared with 7.4 times debts in 2007. </li>
</ul>
Assets have grown faster than debt
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2019/7/11/roy%20morgan.png" target="_blank">Click here</a> to enlarge:
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2019/7/11/roy%20morgan.png" alt="">
 
Source: Roy Morgan Single Source (Australia) 12 months to March 2019, n = 51,362; 12 months to December 2007, n = 54,212. Base: Australians 14+.
"We see daily headlines about the risks posed by high levels of debt and falling property values, but when we drill down into the data, a more balanced long term picture emerges," said Michele Levine, the CEO of Roy Morgan.
"Although the last 12 months has seen a marginal decline in household net worth, it is important to understand it in the context of the long term trend. What we have seen here is a very positive long term trend.
"Housing debt has grown considerably since 2007, but not uniformly - Roy Morgan’s data shows wealthier cohorts have shown a much greater propensity to take on debt and those investors have more ability to handle downturns than more marginal borrowers in lower-wealth segments.
"A more detailed understanding of how debt and personal wealth are distributed can help dispel some of the more simplistic fears over debt, and give a more balanced view of its relationship to wealth creation in Australia over the long term."
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Australians’ net wealth has nearly doubled since GFC: Roy Morgan Wealth Report 

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Consumer satisfaction at the four major banks increased marginally during April, taking the current levels well above the long-term average.
The latest Roy Morgan research polled more than 50,000 consumers and found that consumer satisfaction with the big four was at 80.1% in the six months prior to April.
The small increase of 0.3% from the same period in 2016.
It sits above the long-term average of 74.9% recorded since 2005.
However, home loan customers are less satisfied with levels sitting at 78% compared to 80.5% for other types of customers.
Home loan customers at CBA experienced the highest satisfaction levels at 78.8%. This was followed by Westpac (78.5%), NAB (77.3%) and ANZ (77.0%). The biggest improvement in this area was for ANZ (up 1.0%) and NAB (up 0.9%).
Over the past year, the big banks have closed this gap marginally, researchers found.
Amongst the big four banks, consumer satisfaction levels are as follows:
<ul>
<li>Commonwealth Bank of Australia (CBA): 81.4%</li>
<li>National Australia Bank (NAB): 80.2%</li>
<li>Australia &amp; New Zealand Banking Group (ANZ): 78.7%</li>
<li>Westpac: 78.1%</li>
</ul>
Westpac experienced the largest improvement in April, Australian Broker noted, moving up 0.7% as a result of increases in scores for both home loan and non-home loan customers.
For non-home loan customers, CBA again leads at 81.9%. This is followed by NAB (81.0%), ANZ (79.1%) and Westpac (78.0%).
“Roy Morgan data shows that customer satisfaction with the big four banks remains well above their long term average and after trending up strongly for more than a decade, for the last two years it has plateaued rather than showing any real signs of declining,” said Norman Morris, industry communications director at Roy Morgan Research.
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