Robert Simeon

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For those predicting housing values to start dropping in the near future you should start rethinking that analysis.
Of course, the newly created investment market is facing severe headwinds and yes, it would be fair to assume that there will be a correction should a large number default on their respective acquisitions.
The mistake many continue to make is that housing affordability is actually about the established markets of households not the investment market.
If you were asked a simple question for those residing in NSW, do you want a second Sydney Airport or high-speed rail connecting Newcastle to Sydney, the Hunter Valley to Sydney and Wollongong/Southern Highlands to Sydney I am pretty sure what the answer would be.
With the second Sydney Airport estimated to cost between $6 and $8 billion it is comical that a second airport is prioritised over high-speed rail networks.
Everybody aside from politicians can see that high-speed rail networks would have an instant effect on housing affordability in NSW.
For those who disagree NSW is facing major problems over the upcoming decade that require immediate attention.
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/06/02/Screen%20Shot%202017-06-02%20at%2010.59.17%20am.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2017/06/02/Screen%20Shot%202017-06-02%20at%2010.59.17%20am.jpg" alt="">
As a direct result of what is happening to Sydney rental markets and housing markets we are now starting to see the exodus of NSW residents to the more affordable Victorian markets.
This is happening to such an extent that Melbourne will surpass Sydney in terms of population to seize the title as Australia’s biggest and number one city.
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/06/02/Screen%20Shot%202017-06-02%20at%2010.59.40%20am.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2017/06/02/Screen%20Shot%202017-06-02%20at%2010.59.40%20am.jpg" alt="">
It has been well documented that since that Sydney 2000 Olympics there has been next to no forward planning which explains exactly why Sydney is now overcrowded with our transport infrastructure at breaking point.
What makes this even worse is that there are no viable solutions – no drawing boards.
This then leads to the population considering alternate solutions to relocate simply because the financial pressures have become untenable.
NSW has had no succession planning where vision has simply been ignored, and now it is starting to pay the price for that ignorance.
In the established property markets we are now at levels never seen before.
Only last week, a garden apartment that was sold in Cremorne in September 2016 for $1,582,000 sold again less than eight months later for $1,970,000.
At a federal level, we are now witnessing the lowest annual growth rates in terms of government spending since the 1960’s.
Federal government overheads keep increasing so we are now witnessing cutbacks that will seriously damage growth as infrastructure continues to be ignored.
There is no collaboration between the states and territories with Canberra and this is fracturing growth given population growth continues to climb to record highs.
If elected politicians started displaying signs that Sydney was full 17 years ago then what do you think they should be displaying now?
With the federal government tightening the spending belts then the states and territories will start cancelling future projects simply because there is no available funding.
The latest Australian Bureau of Statistics figures reveal that approximately 2.3 million Australians earn the lowest legal rate of pay for what they perform.
Recently the Reserve Bank of Australia commented that “wage growth is low.
Although it seems unlikely that wage growth will slow much further, wage pressures are expected to pick up only gradually.”
There has been next to no political commentary about wage growth where one would think that elected politicians would make this a priority to find out exactly why Australia has such weak wage growth?
With record low wage growth how is it possible that we can have record high property rentals?
The Property Council of Australia recently released a five-point plan to assist the NSW government with housing affordability.
<ul>
<li>Turbocharging housing supply through increased land supply and planning reform.</li>
<li>Reforming state property taxes and reducing fees, charges, and red tape.</li>
<li>Better co-operation between all levels of government.</li>
<li>Bridging the deposit gap and supporting first home buyers better.</li>
<li>Supporting the rental market and fostering innovative, affordable rental product.</li>
<li>Whilst fine in principle – this simply won’t happen.</li>
</ul>
Sydney has a massive problem with no clear solutions in the short-term.
Common sense needs to prevail so put the second Sydney Airport on immediate hold and start building fast-train networks.
I am yet to see a better solution to tackle housing affordability. Have you?
MOSMAN – 2088
Number of houses on the market this time last year – 51
Number of houses on the market last week –56
Number of houses on the market this week –57
Number of apartments on the market this time last year – 41
Number of apartments on the market last week – 40
Number of apartments on the market this week –38
CREMORNE
Number of houses on the market this time last year – 10
Number of houses on the market last week – 6
Number of houses on the market this week – 9
Number of apartments on the market this time last year – 18
Number of apartments on the market last week – 16
Number of apartments on the market this week – 18
NEUTRAL BAY – 2089
Number of houses on the market this time last year – 8
Number of houses on the market last week – 2
Number of houses on the market this week – 3
Number of apartments on the market this time last year –23
Number of apartments on the market last week –21
Number of apartments on the market this week – 19
ROBERT SIMEON is a director of <a href="https://www.rwm.com.au/">Richardson Wrench Mosman and Neutral Bay</a> and has been selling residential real estate in Sydney since 1985. He has also been writing real estate blog<a href="https://www.rwm.com.au/"> </a><a href="https://www.rwm.com.au/news/">Virtual Realty News</a> since 2000.
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robertsimeon-hRNTwJyXkQ

Politicians are doing nothing to fix housing affordability: Robert Simeon

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Negative gearing is safe for the short-term and definitely gone for the long-term simply because we are witnessing housing dynamics that have never been seen before. 
Both federal and state governments know that it’s imperative to drive Australia’s population at rates never seen before because this drives revenue.
Federally, the Abbott government is struggling to get over the mining boom demise, especially when it relates to debt and deficit.
This week I read a comment by Craig James: “Over the last 65 years the federal budget has been in deficit 71% of the time with the average deficit 0.9% of GDP."
Now back to the housing dynamics which is win, win, win for the NSW government and woe, woe, woe for the federal government. Last week <a href="https://www.rwm.com.au/2015/04/17/hold-whats-going/" target="_blank" title=" Hold – on, what’s going on here">I wrote</a>: “Secondly the big property market mover in Sydney especially is the rezoning of high density residential land into new developments. Previously this was a domain dominated by Australian developers who now can’t compete with the Asian developers. Given that it’s legal to buy new off the plan, these developments are then resold exclusively in Asia.”
The NSW government is only too well aware that the booming real estate markets are its “rivers of gold” – these revenues are vital to ensure a budget surplus is maintained and more particularly as the government is about to embark on the greatest infrastructure spend in NSW history.
In order to balance the books and remain the most prosperous state/territory in Australia the NSW government is focussed on two revenue streams – stamp duty and land tax. To make this happen NSW will see a development explosion of apartment developments with the NSW government’s blessing. It knows only too well that Asian developers are all over Sydney developments given they have enormous offshore markets to capitalise on. The business model is quite simple – the government will drive infrastructure predominately from the sale of the wires and poles and the developers will follow Pied Piper-style.
For this to happen the NSW government needs to change the mentality of local councils whom for generations have been anti-development and protective of the suburbs cultural and environmental heritage. So what the NSW government is now doing is trying to entice councils to merge so that it will then be easier to abandon the community mentality and embark on massive highrise developments. It’s all about the revenues from the developers and the ongoing stamp duty and land tax trails.
Now this may be fine for the NSW government which has just been re-elected for another four year term but it spells disaster for the federal government given the concentration is on investors who no doubt will want to remain deeply immersed in negative gearing. It also means that rents will fall although we must not forget that in the background we will see a massive population drive.
Naturally there will be a massive movement from those who were previously employed in the mining sector who will then migrate into the building and construction sector.
By all reports Sydney and surrounding areas are now on the cusp of a massive construction/real estate boom which I might point out is totally different to a property boom. This is a property investor’s boom which is completely different to the household boom which is exactly what we have been witnessing of late. The majority of the investors will come from offshore combined with Australian resident investors who will be all over the high density rezoning that we are currently witnessing.
Now many will be massively against this massive construction boom – although as I see it in the short term there is not much that can be done so we simply have to go with the flow.
In the meantime watch with interest what happens to the local council mergers especially with regard to high density rezoning – which is coming to a suburb near you. If the local councils stymy and delay new construction the government is then likely to step in in typical ‘Big Brother’ style. All I can say is watch these developments with interest given the wheels of motion have started.
Back to the negative gearing debate which I do find somewhat comical given the federal government has advised that there are no intended changes on the horizon. Well that is fair and reasonable given they are working from the 2011/12 tax figures. We all know it’s the 2012/13, 2013/14 and 2014/15 where the property investor boom took off so for some strange reason there has been a delay releasing the 2012/13 and 2013/14 negative gearing results...
Makes one ponder just why that is or possibly just a coincidence? I’m with the former.
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Is negative gearing the sacred cow or sacrificial lamb? Robert Simeon

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The internet has become a fascinating tool; it’s revolutionised how we do business today but it has also caught many governments off guard. Not to mention made them more accountable as strange as that may sound. 
For example, I have been for some time now mystified about how Australia’s house market continues to soar with Sydney prices up nearly 15% just in the past 12 months. Our unemployment rate sits at 6.1% which is the highest rate (or thereabouts) for 13 years, where of all developing countries Australia’s is the only rate increasing. And real wage growth is now at the weakest level for two decades.
Deutsche Bank has just released its fourth annual Mapping the World’s Prices report and for the fourth year in a row Australia sits at the top of the list for being the most expensive. Yes Australia is now into its 24th year of uninterrupted growth – a feat no other developed country has been able to replicate. It must have been release week as the International Monetary Fund also produced its World Economic Outlook which has economic growth still on target at 2.8% for 2015. Before we get too excited they also thought that Greece will be the strongest Eurozone economy over the next few years too.
Whilst businesses and individuals have been using and adapting this online phenomenon the same can’t be said for a government, the best case at hand is that they have no idea just who is buying Australian real estate. In 2014, I and others started writing and probing this actual point about foreign investors in Australia. This brought the treasurer Joe Hockey on 19 March 2014 to announce an inquiry and report on ‘Australia’s foreign investment policy as it applies to residential real estate’. 12 months on nothing has actually happened so it would appear that such a debate might be construed as not being politically correct. Treasurer Hockey did announce to all and sundry that he had sought a divestiture order on the $39 million sale of Villa del Mare in Point Piper – although despite claims of more to come no announcements have been made. One might think that the backlash of sentiment coming from Asia may have seen these forensic investigations put on the back-burner?
Let’s face it – Australia is one very popular destination especially when you look back at what Philip Ruddock as Immigration Minister had to say in a speech back in 2000. Back then official projections suggested that Australia’s population would reach 24 million by 2050. Just 15 years later those population targets have almost been met with the latest projections having our population as now likely to be 40 million by 2050.
I read a report recently that the Master Builders of Australia estimated that overseas buyers make up approximately 5 to 6% of Australia’s housing market. The Foreign Investment Review Board (FIRB) figures show for the year from July 2013, $24.8 billion in foreign investment was approved, 44% higher than the previous year.
It’s now common knowledge that the FIRB have failed miserably in their assigned duties. The problem we have is twofold. Firstly, the government has no way of precisely knowing exactly how many properties are being acquired by foreign investors – I would suggest that realistic estimations should be more than double what the FIRB are suggesting. The only way to know for sure would be to extrapolate the stamp duty data and then run that through the Australian Taxation Office data – and we all know that won’t be happening anytime soon.
Secondly the big property market mover in Sydney especially is the rezoning of high – density residential land into new developments. Previously this was a domain dominated by Australian developers who now can’t compete with the Asian developers. Given that it’s legal to buy new off the plan, these developments are then re-sold exclusively in Asia.
So what we are clearly seeing is the Asian property developers paying much more for the sites given the apartments can be sold for much more to overseas buyers – who are using the buying off the plan incentives to buy Australian real estate which is totally legal.
 When we dart back to populations we see that as of 1 January 2015, the population of China was estimated to be 1,370,811,348 people which is a bit more than our 23,790,582 as at 30 September 2014.
Maybe our federal government could lower our unemployment rate by employing some computer programmers’ to extrapolate all the countries’ stamp duty data and then cross pollinate that with Australian Tax Office data and create their (as promised) National Property Register?
<a href="https://www.rwm.com.au/files/2015/04/16-04-2015-12-10-09-PM.jpg"><img class="aligncenter size-full wp-image-466586" src="https://www.rwm.com.au/files/2015/04/16-04-2015-12-10-09-PM.jpg" alt="16-04-2015 12-10-09 PM" width="614" height="324"></a>
<a href="https://www.rwm.com.au/files/2015/04/16-04-2015-12-10-48-PM.jpg"><img class="aligncenter size-full wp-image-466587" src="https://www.rwm.com.au/files/2015/04/16-04-2015-12-10-48-PM.jpg" alt="16-04-2015 12-10-48 PM" width="616" height="324"></a>
Then again I’m probably spending way too much time on my computer and simply imagining what is happening to Australian residential property prices!
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Hold on, what’s going on here? Robert Simeon

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There are three things missing from Australia’s current economic debate – honesty, bravery and conviction.
We know that the Australian tax system is badly broken however the politicians won’t do a thing to fix it simply because they are only too well aware that any such moves would jeopardise their political wellbeing.
Social media runs amok around every time the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) meets to discuss the cash rate, whilst we all know that monetary policy is failing miserably. We even have competitions to see which economists have the highest success rate by predicting the cash rate outcome.
The reality is that since the global financial crisis (GFC) we can be certain of two things – cash rates are all headed to zero (or close to) and debt and deficits keep climbing. It’s interesting to note that this year marks the fifth anniversary of the Henry Tax Review although each year it re-emerges under a different name – intergenerational report and last month’s tax discussion paper. All sadly are nothing more than public relations exercises that highlight weak governments with an inability to act.
Iron ore prices are collapsing as to the price of oil and the Aussie dollar has fallen about 20% over the last 18 months. Like most governments around the world they are now devoid of an economic conviction and simply don’t know how to start a national debate.
Here’s an idea – stump up $50 million and see which Australian businesses can come up with the best economic reforms, and that would mean stripping all current governments – local, state and federal. Of course we keep getting that old chestnut of raising the GST although the problem Australia has is so much work is done in the cash economy that the GST fails the test miserably. You wouldn’t need to increase the GST if all the loopholes were closed.
We should be looking at the economic models were the principle place of residence is taxed on profits made when sold. It should also be a tax deduction for all expenses too – that way the cash economy is significantly minimised and GST receipts increase significantly. Then the state governments can start shutting down many of their tax rorts like payroll tax, land tax and stamp duties.
There are two other very important points that need raising which highlights another problem Australia has – <a href="https://insidestory.org.au/how-to-bridge-the-infrastructure-gap" target="_blank" title="How to bridge the infrastructure gap">How to bridge the infrastructure gap</a>. “The faster our population grows, the worse our governments are performing in choosing and building the infrastructure we need to cope with that growth.”
“Three statistics issued in recent days reveal the scale of the problem.
<ul>
<li>"On 26 March, the Bureau of Statistics issued the latest population figures. They revealed that Australia has grown by more than three million people in just eight years to last September. We are gaining almost 400,000 people every year. Every two and half years or so we add another million people. 
</li>
<li>"On 31 March, the Bureau released its regional population estimates for the year to last June. They showed that almost half of that rapid population growth is going into just two cities: Melbourne and Sydney. Add Brisbane and Perth, and almost three – quarters of it is going into four cities. 
</li>
<li>"On 1 April, the Bureau released its estimates on engineering construction in 2014. You might wish it was an April Fool’s Day joke, but sadly, that’s not so. It reported that work carried out in the December quarter plunged last year for the second year in a row, falling 12.5% below the 2012 peak. 
</li>
<li>"In every mainland state, infrastructure investment is now in free-fall. In most of them – New South Wales, Victoria, Queensland and South Australia – the work carried out in the December quarter was down between a quarter and a third from its recent peak.”</li>
</ul>
Now it gets even more interesting.
<ul>
<li>“But hang on, you say: isn’t that because the mining investment boom peaked in 2012? That’s true, it is winding down. And our governments have told us that that they’re increasing infrastructure investment to fill the gap, and to help sustain economic activity as the mining boom subsides. 
</li>
<li>“But what they’re doing is the exact opposite. Since 2012, the Bureau’s figures show public sector investment in infrastructure has collapsed even faster than private sector investment. In 2014 alone, it shrank 15%. Since 2012, it has shrunk 20%.”</li>
</ul>
I would think that most would agree that Australia urgently needs a public debate given our elected governments are having a shocker.
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Why our elected governments are having a shocker: Robert Simeon

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In my 30 years of selling real estate I’ve seen some amazing market trends - but what I am seeing now is arguably the most amazing trend that Australian real estate has ever witnessed before. 
The last such event, which happened on a much smaller scale, was the introduction of the capital gains tax on 20 September 1985. I was a real estate agent on my L plates who was just learning the trade and caught the back end of a mad investor rush to buy investment properties before the new legislation was enacted.
It’s called the Grandfather clause or the Grandfather Policy. It's where an old rule continues to apply in certain existing situations, while a new rule is introduced and will apply to all future cases. Cue negative gearing which is now front and centre of Australia’s great tax debate. What we are seeing today is just how smart and savvy Australian property investors are as they vigorously gold-plate their property investment portfolios. The reality of being guaranteed full deductions on your investment property explains exactly why property investors have run amok with Sydney real estate.
The government recently released its tax discussion paper which just so happens to be spruiking debate on negative gearing and capital gains tax. Property investors in Australia are all over the “Grandfather clause” simply because of the sheer weight in numbers of property investors  - in 2011-12 a staggering 883,325 of 1.266 million taxpayers claimed deductions. Negative gearing by property investors reduced personal income tax revenue in Australia by $600 million in the 2001-02 tax year, $3.9 billion in 2004-05 and $13.2 billion in 2010-11. So one can only shudder to think what this year’s deductions will be like given the investor boom.
But let’s now look at what effect this is having on local real estate markets. They reveal (something that I have been alluding to for ages) exactly how household sentiment has radically changed when it comes to buying the principal place of residence today – thanks mainly to the global financial crisis which has re-calibrated how households approach their modern day property folios.
Trading up is now a thing of the past with households now opting to renovate and then leverage investment properties from their principal place of residence – that’s right, the gold plated guaranteed tax deduction.
Look at how many houses are available today in Neutral Bay - the number is zero. If you look at the number of houses available today in Cremorne the number is also zero. When I go back over our house data for the last five years on a weekly basis Neutral Bay averaged 12 houses on the market each week and Cremorne averaged 15. Mosman houses have averaged 88 houses and today there are just 57 and going lower. What we are seeing is unprecedented given whilst the principal place of residence is tax free, households have decided to stay put and lock in long-term real estate investment property with a locked-in maximum tax deduction. All thanks to the Grandfather clause.
For the record this is the very first time that no houses have ever not been for sale in Cremorne and Neutral Bay. A coincidence? I don’t believe so.
The Sydney Morning Herald ran a piece last week – <a href="https://news.domain.com.au/domain/real-estate-news/property-investors-use-of-negative-gearing-contentious-20150330-1maq16" target="_blank" title="Property investors’ use of negative gearing contentious.">Property investors’ use of negative gearing contentious.</a> 
My commentary: “Given all that’s currently going on with overseas buyers – more particularly, the uncertainty of exactly what’s happening – it would only be reasonable that with all new developments, only Australian citizens can qualify to buy. The Australian government has lost all control for new developments where it is now imperative that the multitude of loopholes are immediately addressed. It’s that serious that our government is only now just starting to understand the debacle we have with overseas buyers who are the driving force behind these booming markets.
"When negative gearing was introduced back in July 1985 by the Hawke/Keating government, the architects would never have calculated the effects it would have in the market when you have a present cash rate of 2.25% and going lower. Only when the Liberal and Labor parties agree that they will support a bipartisan inquiry into negative gearing will we see a (probable) slowing down of the Australian property investor tsunami.
"Having said that, negative gearing is now 30 years old, where only in the last five years has it reached maturity. The fact that after each financial year we have now seen a new Australian record deduction clearly shows how well the system is being manipulated by investors.
"The consensus is not calling for its abolition – rather an intelligent discussion on what is a fair and reasonable outcome that best suits our property industry today. Given we have a record low cash rate that looks to go even lower, we could then see the cash rate at or around this level for well over a decade to come – maybe even longer, if Australian Treasury bonds are any indication.
"Instead of burying the negative gearing debate in that too-hard basket, the time has now arrived for it to be debated warts and all. It would be a fascinating debate.”
The reality of the matter is that Australia is not in one of the worst ever housing bubbles we have ever seen, rather household’s cherry-picking investment properties over trading up simply because we have a record low cash rate and with negative gearing a gold plated tax deduction which won’t be available for much longer if rumor and speculation prove to be correct.
Sydney is also on track to become the first Australian city with a population to hit 5,000,000 with demand consistently outperforming supply.
I’m of the opinion that too many commentators have completely missed the ‘big’ housing picture and are way off the mark with their persistent household debt criticism lecturing.
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The looming demise of negative gearing has triggered a tsunami of investor activity: Robert Simeon

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Without a shadow of a doubt the most asked question in Sydney real estate circles at the moment is – do you try and buy now or wait for ‘that’ market correction?
The simple answer is ‘that’ market correction may be years off, with some niche markets in all probability not even facing a correction. The key factor is the rate of growth over a twelve month period although I must admit some areas are posting capital growth gains that will almost certainly end in pain and significant losses.
I was looking at some CoreLogic RP Data statistics during the week and I found some niche markets are simply defying logic. In NSW Keiraville is presently sitting on 49.49% growth, Seven Hills 46.84% and Hay on 45.45%. In Victoria Portland is running at 47.54% and Caulfield East 45.57%. In South Australia, Wayville at 47.25%, Clayton Bay 45.40% and Paringa 45.24% – that is scary data that strengthens my argument that we should have postcode cash rates in Australia.
Overall there are two market demographics that are driving the Sydney real estate markets at above the acceptable speed limit. The first are the property investors who thus far have been 100% accurate with their market assessment given they have been driving the market now solidly for over three years. Given the Australian bond rates look to be sitting below 3% for the next decade or two, they have been very shrewd to target property and of course the benefits of negative gearing.
When negative gearing was introduced in July 1985 by the Hawke/Keating government the architects would never have calculated the affects it would have in the market when you have a cash rate at 2.25% and going lower. Only when the Liberal and Labor parties agree that they will support a bipartisan inquiry into negative gearing will we see a slowing down of the property investor tsunami.
Not all real estate markets are being drawn in the current whirlpool of real estate euphoria. When I look at the number of houses for sale in Mosman this week we see 69 homes. Twelve months ago there were 93, twenty four months ago there were 93 and forty eight months ago there were 141. So what we are seeing is reduced stock in many suburbs given vendors are simply not that interested in selling given the preference is to pay down debt which is directly attributed to the Global Financial Crisis.
A dominant player in the market today (and growing) is that of the overseas buyer and let’s be honest the government regulators have completely lost control and have absolutely no idea how strong this buyer demographic is or has been. When the Chairman of the Foreign Investment Review Board (FIRB) Brian Wilson openly admits that “The ATO is better set up for coordinating a big data approach than Treasury, which is a policy body.” We then begin to realise that the FIRB has lost this battle and the white flag has now been well and truly raised.
Naturally these comments were ignored by the Treasurer Joe Hockey and mainstream media which I find simply amazing.
<a href="https://www.therealestateconversation.com.au/news/2015/03/20/why-australia/1426842000#.VQ-irH5zm3M.linkedin" target="_blank" title="Why, Australia? ">Why, Australia?</a> Grainne Gilmore, head of residential research UK at Knight Frank, told The Real Estate Conversation:
“Over the past decade, Australia was positioned fourth in terms of countries with the greatest foreign inflows of High Net Worth Individuals (HNWI) with a gain of 22,000, which represents 14% of Australia’s total HNWI population.
"In 2014, there were 1,734 Ultra High Net Worth Individuals (UHNWI) living in Australia who had a net worth of over US$30 million.
"Sydney accommodates half of these individuals, with Melbourne (26%), Perth (15%) and Brisbane (14%) taking up the balance."
So no matter what happens to property prices in Sydney there will always be greater demand than supply given there is a fast growing line of buyers from China wanting to buy Australian real estate. Although don’t expect to hear any debate on this topic given it’s deemed ‘politically incorrect’.
Although in this day and age the groundswell is started by outside forces given this really is the only way to make politicians accountable for their inactions.
As for the cash rate there is no point in predicting where it will be at the next meeting rather where it will be in a decade’s time given we now know that Australia Treasury bonds won’t be going anywhere until 2030. Unfortunately the same can’t be said for property prices where in 2035 it’s too scary to even contemplate and I’m not talking down.
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 Australia has quite scary emerging and submerging property markets: Robert Simeon

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When Treasurer Joe Hockey announced the divestment order for Villa del Mare with fanfare and hoopla, we were left hanging on the words that there was a high expectation of more to come. 
Well there have been no more ‘big’ announcements on that front which is not that big a surprise given their top end property infatuation will in all probability reveal no further indiscretions.
Of course we are now seeing a different acquisition scenario being painted with the Australian Crime Commission reportedly investigating Melbourne real estate agents with regard to foreign buyers laundering monies in the form of real estate acquisitions. Last December, I wrote <a href="/expert-insights/investing/38502-foreign-buyers-inquiry-leaves-many-questions-unanswered" target="_blank" title="Foreign buyer inquiry leaves many questions">Foreign buyer inquiry leaves many questions</a> – “Of course it is just a mere coincidence that the Chinese government requested a bipartisan arrangement with the Australian government to process the identities of all Chinese buyers who purchase Australian real estate.”
At present China only permits a resident to transfer a maximum of US$50,000 per annum, so the current investigations simply add to the intrigue of how these supposed mystery funds end up on our shores? At the heart of the problem is just how the current and previous governments have been so hopeless in monitoring real estate transactions and that not only applies to residential but commercial and agricultural as well.
Whilst these inquiries are simply a distraction that quite possibly may lead to nothing the Sydney property market today faces an unprecedented challenge.
The latest data from the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) shows home lending is now at $1.43 trillion at the end of January – and steadily climbing. Following last week’s meeting of the RBA where the cash rate remained steady, RateCity calculated that the average standard variable home loan has dropped to 5.07% – which happens to be the lowest in 60 years.
Given the Sydney residential market continues to run amok it is worth noting that when we witnessed these markets previously in 2003 and 2010 the cash rate was rising yet this time around the cash rate is reducing. The Australian economy grew by 0.5% in the December quarter, to then post 2.5% growth for 2014. This week, ANZ chief economist Warren Hogan suggested that a third rate cut in 2015 may be required for the Australian economy.
Last week I read with interest comments made by David Murray, who is also heading – up the Abbott government’s financial systems inquiry. David Murray said: “It is a serious issue and if interest rates continue to fall, there will have to be prudential offsets to limit the risks in the housing market.”
The trouble as I see it at the moment is that we have “too many chiefs and not enough Indians” pontificating about just exactly what is the “best practice” to manage this property dilemma. For quite some time now the RBA have telegraphed their concerns and now we see the Australian Prudential Regulation Authority (APRA) being suggested as the likely weapon to closely look at loan to value ratios. The only problem with all this is that investors have become addicted to negative gearing so any action to slow them down would only increase their tax breaks.
I am a big fan of abolishing the blanket cash rate by then introducing individual suburb cash rates that would be determined by the RBA. Presently all the major lenders analyse data daily on the suburb trends so it would make sense that all new lending be determined by the individual strength of that suburb when applying the suburb cash rate.
Of course the higher the rate for an investor the higher the negative gearing so the Abbott government needs to look at just how many properties can an individual investor have in a property portfolio? We have anecdotal evidence that investors have smashed first home buyers when they are competing against each other – with the investors winning in nearly every instance.
It has been well documented that David Murray is not a fan of negative gearing, which is stated in his report that still sits with the Treasurer Joe Hockey – so don’t expect a release anytime soon.On top of that the government is now pursuing releasing superannuation to first home buyers – which is a dumb idea. How about releasing the Murray Inquiry and let’s see what recommendations are contained within that report. I’ll guarantee a superannuation release does not crack a mention.
In the meantime we can expect the Sydney property juggernaut to surpass all previous records and the federal government to do next to nothing about it due to their galvanisation of popularity polls.
The government will be focused on media distractions as against working to correct the imbalances that are so obvious and confronting to Australia’s residential property markets.
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The Sydney property conundrum: Robert Simeon

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Well, the property is actually named Villa del Mare and I don’t really see the current owners having too much trouble as they correct their divestiture order.
The nightmare is actually faced by treasurer Joe Hockey given he now has to investigate millions and millions of property transactions – which we all know by now that such a task is impossible. First of all they don’t have the manpower nor the most important criteria – the data.
Let’s be honest here, the Abbott government decided to announce their ‘ferocious’ crackdown on foreign buyers simply to distract attention from its decision to back-flip on the Medicare co-payments, and what a smoke screen this proved to be.
Naturally, this was all tied into Foreign Investment Review Board (FIRB) statistics where it was revealed to The House of Representatives Standing Committee on Economics that in the first nine months of 2014 foreign investment had surged 44%. One would seriously have to ask the question is there a hotter real estate market in the world at the moment than Sydney?
For the federal government to forensically investigate all the property transactions and we are talking about millions and millions of transactions the answer is simple – no chance. In 2013-14 alone NSW recorded 860,000 property transactions.
So front and centre we have a $39 million Point Piper mansion that must now find a new buyer within the next 90 days. Well didn’t the media fall for that bait hook, line and sinker. I’m happy to bet that this property will not be offered for sale, rather the present owners will simply transfer the property into another name. At the heart of the problem is that Joe Hockey is totally wrong when he claims that: “Under the Foreign Acquisitions and Takeover Act 1975, foreign investors must notify the treasurer through the Foreign Investment Review Board before purchasing residential real estate.”
Sorry to tell you Joe, but foreign buyers have found much better ways to acquire residential real estate and yes, thanks to your crackdown, you’re about to find out just how. Although I am sure that there will be many cases of foreign buyers who have simply disregarded FIRB regulations and purchased properties without application.
The much preferred method that foreign buyers have pursued is to simply transfer funds to their newly appointed “trustee” who has Australian residency, and they then legally purchase a property. When it suits the foreign buyer they apply for Australian residency and once this is granted they then apply the <a href="https://www.austlii.edu.au/au/legis/nsw/consol_act/da199793/s18" target="_blank" title="Duties Act 1997 – Sect 18">Duties Act 1997 – Sect 18</a> which applies to “no double duty”. Given that they can prove that they actually provided all the funds to acquire the property to their appointed “trustee” they then pay a duty of $50 to have the property transferred into their name. So you see there is absolutely no need to advise the FIRB given this is totally legal in NSW – so Joe Hockey should be looking at all the legally available loopholes first.
At last count the treasurer’s FIRB consisted of just 10 staff, so given the recent announcements we may assume that this department has been increased tenfold so that they can energetically confront these serious concerns. In all probability this too will be placed in the too hard Canberra basket, although I believe everyone would agree that this is a serious problem that requires urgent attention.
The reality of the matter is that the FIRB is, as I have said on many occasions now, “hopeless’’ given they don’t even know where to start to take control of this crisis. For most obvious reasons the states and territories won’t exactly be energetically offering assistance given they are only concerned about protecting their “rivers of gold”, otherwise known as stamp duty.
The only way that the federal government can get to the bottom of these foreign acquisitions is to somehow get hold of the stamp duty records – which won’t happen anytime soon.
Like a bull at a gate Joe Hockey has opened up his very own house of worms without even realising the sheer magnitude of the job at hand. From past experience we all know only too well what happens next, don’t we.
Nothing happening here folks, move along, we have everything under control. Next question?
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Treasurer Joe’s Villa del Nightmare: Robert Simeon

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As Australia faces the reality of life after its mining boom, now more than ever it’s vital that we embark on a path of prosperity and sound government – just don’t hold your breath (just yet).
First and foremost it’s imperative that NSW embarks on the greatest infrastructure expenditure in the state’s history – at the end of the day the upcoming election is all about economic reform. 
Based on the recent election results in Victoria and Queensland the word ‘privatisation’ has indeed become a dirty word. In the case of the Baird government strategy the proceeds from the sale of state ownership of the electricity network would be directed to the generation of pivotal capital works projects and not state debt reduction.
A 2013 report on the Electricity Network Regulation the Productivity Commission announced that electricity prices had risen 70% in real terms over the previous five years with structural problems most apparent in NSW. The Productivity Commission went on to say: “There are strong arguments for privatisation of those businesses. There is no evidence that the productivity, reliability, quality or cost performance of private – sector electricity network businesses is worse than their public sector equivalents. To the contrary, the evidence in Australia and internationally suggests that such private sector enterprises are more efficient.”
NSW Labor proposes to tax business more then cut and defer major projects whilst doing next to nothing to fix congestion in Sydney. Congestion is exactly what determines property prices in Sydney, which is why I have said if you own real estate within a 10 kilometre radius of the Sydney CBD you have nothing to worry about.
A recent report commissioned by the Property Council of NSW has found that Sydney is facing a housing crisis with an additional 190,000 homes needed to be constructed over the next 10 years. The report identified that since 2005 an average of just 17,002 homes had been approved by Sydney’s 43 councils each year. From a business perspective you’re not going to attract new housing projects unless you are rolling out massive new infrastructure community platforms.
<a href="https://www.rwm.com.au/files/2015/02/23-02-2015-9-11-41-AM.jpg"><img class="aligncenter size-full wp-image-389483" src="https://www.rwm.com.au/files/2015/02/23-02-2015-9-11-41-AM.jpg" alt="23-02-2015 9-11-41 AM" width="463" height="477"></a>
The above graph clearly identifies what happens to property prices when you’re closer to the CBD and highlights what happens when governments drop crucial infrastructure spending – <a href="https://www.businessspectator.com.au/article/2015/2/23/infrastructure/australias-train-nowhere" target="_blank" title="Australia’s train to nowhere. ">Australia’s train to nowhere. </a>More than anything we see glaring highlights as to what happens when governments fail to invest in crucial areas such as public transport. As a result house prices to those areas located within that crucial 10 kilometre radius of the CBD skyrocket.
NSW faces an additional 1.600 million people requiring housing over the next two decades – which in itself explains why now more than ever before infrastructure has to be the key ingredient into guaranteeing NSW’s prosperity into the future. Privatisation should not be a dirty word rather the dirty word clearly is lack of infrastructure spending by past NSW governments.
Sydney must absorb Newcastle, Wollongong and western Sydney into its business model by creating a world class metropolis. Given what’s been achieved in other countries there is no excuse why Sydney does not have a very fast train that connects all the cities.
Given that investors today are getting next to no return given the record low cash rate – investors can purchase syndicates that would allow them to invest in infrastructure projects <a href="https://www.businessspectator.com.au/article/2015/2/25/infrastructure/neat-fix-politics-infrastructure-funding" target="_blank" title="a neat fix to the politics of infrastructure funding.">a neat fix to the politics of infrastructure funding.</a>
Given that the self-managed superannuation funds are driving investment property in NSW due to a lack of choice such a proposal to attract these funds with infrastructure investment is a brilliant and a long overdue alternative. Naturally the big superannuation funds want as much of this pie as they can get so the state governments must offer allocations to ensure that everyone has equal investment opportunities.
From an investment perspective NSW can easily offer thousands and thousands of critical infrastructure investment funds for investors to diversify as against relying solely on the real estate markets.
Of course nothing can happen if we have a change in government given the alternative is simply too scary to contemplate. If NSW had previously had a strong infrastructure platform property prices would be nowhere near as high as they are today.
If the Baird government is successful at next month’s election and they stick to their infrastructure platforms there is a strong possibility they could become the most successful government in NSW history.
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Robert Simeon

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