Australia has quite scary emerging and submerging property markets: Robert Simeon

 Australia has quite scary emerging and submerging property markets: Robert Simeon
Robert SimeonMarch 31, 2015

Without a shadow of a doubt the most asked question in Sydney real estate circles at the moment is – do you try and buy now or wait for ‘that’ market correction?

The simple answer is ‘that’ market correction may be years off, with some niche markets in all probability not even facing a correction. The key factor is the rate of growth over a twelve month period although I must admit some areas are posting capital growth gains that will almost certainly end in pain and significant losses.

I was looking at some CoreLogic RP Data statistics during the week and I found some niche markets are simply defying logic. In NSW Keiraville is presently sitting on 49.49% growth, Seven Hills 46.84% and Hay on 45.45%. In Victoria Portland is running at 47.54% and Caulfield East 45.57%. In South Australia, Wayville at 47.25%, Clayton Bay 45.40% and Paringa 45.24% – that is scary data that strengthens my argument that we should have postcode cash rates in Australia.

Overall there are two market demographics that are driving the Sydney real estate markets at above the acceptable speed limit. The first are the property investors who thus far have been 100% accurate with their market assessment given they have been driving the market now solidly for over three years. Given the Australian bond rates look to be sitting below 3% for the next decade or two, they have been very shrewd to target property and of course the benefits of negative gearing.

When negative gearing was introduced in July 1985 by the Hawke/Keating government the architects would never have calculated the affects it would have in the market when you have a cash rate at 2.25% and going lower. Only when the Liberal and Labor parties agree that they will support a bipartisan inquiry into negative gearing will we see a slowing down of the property investor tsunami.

Not all real estate markets are being drawn in the current whirlpool of real estate euphoria. When I look at the number of houses for sale in Mosman this week we see 69 homes. Twelve months ago there were 93, twenty four months ago there were 93 and forty eight months ago there were 141. So what we are seeing is reduced stock in many suburbs given vendors are simply not that interested in selling given the preference is to pay down debt which is directly attributed to the Global Financial Crisis.

A dominant player in the market today (and growing) is that of the overseas buyer and let’s be honest the government regulators have completely lost control and have absolutely no idea how strong this buyer demographic is or has been. When the Chairman of the Foreign Investment Review Board (FIRB) Brian Wilson openly admits that “The ATO is better set up for coordinating a big data approach than Treasury, which is a policy body.” We then begin to realise that the FIRB has lost this battle and the white flag has now been well and truly raised.

Naturally these comments were ignored by the Treasurer Joe Hockey and mainstream media which I find simply amazing.

Why, Australia? Grainne Gilmore, head of residential research UK at Knight Frank, told The Real Estate Conversation:

“Over the past decade, Australia was positioned fourth in terms of countries with the greatest foreign inflows of High Net Worth Individuals (HNWI) with a gain of 22,000, which represents 14% of Australia’s total HNWI population.

"In 2014, there were 1,734 Ultra High Net Worth Individuals (UHNWI) living in Australia who had a net worth of over US$30 million.

"Sydney accommodates half of these individuals, with Melbourne (26%), Perth (15%) and Brisbane (14%) taking up the balance."

So no matter what happens to property prices in Sydney there will always be greater demand than supply given there is a fast growing line of buyers from China wanting to buy Australian real estate. Although don’t expect to hear any debate on this topic given it’s deemed ‘politically incorrect’.

Although in this day and age the groundswell is started by outside forces given this really is the only way to make politicians accountable for their inactions.

As for the cash rate there is no point in predicting where it will be at the next meeting rather where it will be in a decade’s time given we now know that Australia Treasury bonds won’t be going anywhere until 2030. Unfortunately the same can’t be said for property prices where in 2035 it’s too scary to even contemplate and I’m not talking down.

Robert Simeon

Robert Simeon is a director of Richardson Wrench Mosman and Neutral Bay and has been selling residential real estate in Sydney since 1985. He has also been writing real estate blog Virtual Realty News since 2000.

Editor's Picks

Spyre Group brings successful Queensland blueprint to Melbourne with Hampton Ltd
Saxon Street by Milieu to bring new housing and urban design to Brunswick’s cultural core
Construction begins at Fishermans Bend Innovation Precinct
Gurner reveals new plans for final Jam Factory stage
Tian An launches North Village, Auburn Square second stage

Related Projects

16-22 Maud Street, Newstead QLD 4006
16-22 Maud Street, Newstead QLD 4006
16-22 Maud Street, Newstead QLD 4006
Price
Contact agent
35-37 Mount Street, Prahran VIC 3181
35-37 Mount Street, Prahran VIC 3181
35-37 Mount Street, Prahran VIC 3181
Price
Contact agent
309 Golden Four Drive, Bilinga NSW 4225
Si Bilinga - 309 Golden Four Drive, Bilinga
309 Golden Four Drive, Bilinga NSW 4225
Price
Contact agent
118-124 Benelong Road, Cremorne NSW 2090
118-124 Benelong Road, Cremorne NSW 2090
118-124 Benelong Road, Cremorne NSW 2090
Price
Contact agent
118-120 Matthew Flinders Drive, Cooee Bay QLD 4703
118-120 Matthew Flinders Drive, Cooee Bay QLD 4703
118-120 Matthew Flinders Drive, Cooee Bay QLD 4703
Price
Contact agent
26-62 Kinross Road, Thornlands QLD 4164
26-62 Kinross Road, Thornlands QLD 4164
26-62 Kinross Road, Thornlands QLD 4164
Price
Contact agent
9-11 Baroonba Street, Whitebridge NSW 2290
9-11 Baroonba Street, Whitebridge NSW 2290
9-11 Baroonba Street, Whitebridge NSW 2290
Price
Contact agent
18 Ransley Street, Penrith NSW 2750
Perle, East Side Quarter, Penrith - 18 Ransley Street, Penrith
18 Ransley Street, Penrith NSW 2750
Price
Contact agent
Ernest Cavanagh Street, Gungahlin ACT 2912
Raya, Gungahlin - Ernest Cavanagh Street, Gungahlin
Ernest Cavanagh Street, Gungahlin ACT 2912
Price
Contact agent
39 Browning Street, South Brisbane QLD 4101
39-41 Browning Street, South Brisbane - 39 Browning Street, South Brisbane
39 Browning Street, South Brisbane QLD 4101
Price
Contact agent
675 Gardeners Road, Mascot NSW 2020
Kiara North, Mascot - 675 Gardeners Road, Mascot
675 Gardeners Road, Mascot NSW 2020
Price
Contact agent
187 Salvado Road, Jolimont WA 6014
Jolie, Jolimont - 187 Salvado Road, Jolimont
187 Salvado Road, Jolimont WA 6014
Price
Contact agent
47 Maning Avenue, Sandy Bay TAS 7005
Grace Residences - 47 Maning Avenue, Sandy Bay
47 Maning Avenue, Sandy Bay TAS 7005
Price
Contact agent
Cove Lane, Narooma NSW 2546
Cove, Narooma - Cove Lane, Narooma
Cove Lane, Narooma NSW 2546
Price
Contact agent
52-56 Ramsay Street, Five Dock NSW 2046
Ava, Five Dock - 52-56 Ramsay Street, Five Dock
52-56 Ramsay Street, Five Dock NSW 2046
Price
Contact agent
2375 Gold Coast Highway, Mermaid Beach QLD 4218
The Alfred - 2375 Gold Coast Highway, Mermaid Beach
2375 Gold Coast Highway, Mermaid Beach QLD 4218
Price
Contact agent
129-131 Russell Ave, Dolls Point NSW 2219
ALLURE COLLECTION - 129-131 Russell Ave, Dolls Point
129-131 Russell Ave, Dolls Point NSW 2219
Price
Contact agent
62 Constitution Avenue, Parkes ACT 2600
The Eastbourne on Commonwealth Park - 62 Constitution Avenue, Parkes
62 Constitution Avenue, Parkes ACT 2600
Price
Contact agent
155 Old Burleigh Road, Broadbeach QLD 4218
Sandpiper, Broadbeach - 155 Old Burleigh Road, Broadbeach
155 Old Burleigh Road, Broadbeach QLD 4218
Price
Contact agent
33 Vulture Street, West End QLD 4101
33 Vulture Street, West End QLD 4101
33 Vulture Street, West End QLD 4101
Price
Contact agent
19 Governor Terrace, Murarrie QLD 4172
Park Hill Village Collection, Murarrie - 19 Governor Terrace, Murarrie
19 Governor Terrace, Murarrie QLD 4172
Price
Contact agent
122 Marine Parade, Miami QLD 4220
Nalu, Miami - 122 Marine Parade, Miami
122 Marine Parade, Miami QLD 4220
Price
Contact agent
34 Jacaranda Place, Indooroopilly QLD 4068
34 Jacaranda Place, Indooroopilly QLD 4068
34 Jacaranda Place, Indooroopilly QLD 4068
Price
Contact agent
167 Old Burleigh Road, Broadbeach QLD 4218
167 Old Burleigh Road, Broadbeach QLD 4218
167 Old Burleigh Road, Broadbeach QLD 4218
Price
Contact agent
21 Queens Way, Yeerongpilly QLD 4105
Yeerongpilly Green - 21 Queens Way, Yeerongpilly
21 Queens Way, Yeerongpilly QLD 4105
Price
Contact agent
445-449 River St, Ballina NSW 2478
Solhaven - 445-449 River St, Ballina
445-449 River St, Ballina NSW 2478
Price
Contact agent
52 Sunset Boulevard, Surfers Paradise QLD 4217
52 Sunset Boulevard, Surfers Paradise QLD 4217
52 Sunset Boulevard, Surfers Paradise QLD 4217
Price
Contact agent
6 Jack Brabham Drive, Hurstville NSW
Horizon Hurstville - 6 Jack Brabham Drive, Hurstville
6 Jack Brabham Drive, Hurstville NSW
Price
Contact agent
49 Seena Drive, Edgeworth NSW 2285
49 Seena Drive, Edgeworth NSW 2285
49 Seena Drive, Edgeworth NSW 2285
Price
Contact agent
Lot 118 Ocean Steamers Road, Port Adelaide SA 5015
Lot 118 Ocean Steamers Road, Port Adelaide SA 5015
Lot 118 Ocean Steamers Road, Port Adelaide SA 5015
Price
Contact agent
203 Ashmore Road, Benowa QLD 4217
203 Ashmore Road, Benowa QLD 4217
203 Ashmore Road, Benowa QLD 4217
Price
Contact agent
41 Warrs Road & 7 Horizon Drive, Maribyrnong VIC 3032
41 Warrs Road & 7 Horizon Drive, Maribyrnong VIC 3032
41 Warrs Road & 7 Horizon Drive, Maribyrnong VIC 3032
Price
Contact agent
774 Ripley Road, Ripley QLD 4306
774 Ripley Road, Ripley QLD 4306
774 Ripley Road, Ripley QLD 4306
Price
Contact agent
6 Homelea Court, Rivervale WA 6103
6 Homelea Court, Rivervale WA 6103
6 Homelea Court, Rivervale WA 6103
Price
Contact agent
7002 Ripley Road, Ripley QLD 4306
7002 Ripley Road, Ripley QLD 4306
7002 Ripley Road, Ripley QLD 4306
Price
Contact agent
136-148 Fox Valley Road, Wahroonga NSW 2076
136-148 Fox Valley Road, Wahroonga NSW 2076
136-148 Fox Valley Road, Wahroonga NSW 2076
Price
Contact agent
3 Delos Way, Sorrento WA 6020
3 Delos Way, Sorrento WA 6020
3 Delos Way, Sorrento WA 6020
Price
Contact agent
77 Sutton Street, Redcliffe QLD 4020
77 Sutton Street, Redcliffe QLD 4020
77 Sutton Street, Redcliffe QLD 4020
Price
Contact agent
119 Queen Street & 86 King Street, Bendigo VIC 3550
119 Queen Street & 86 King Street, Bendigo VIC 3550
119 Queen Street & 86 King Street, Bendigo VIC 3550
Price
Contact agent
181 Prospect Road, Prospect SA 5082
181 Prospect Road, Prospect SA 5082
181 Prospect Road, Prospect SA 5082
Price
Contact agent
593-595 Albany Highway, Victoria Park WA 6100
593-595 Albany Highway, Victoria Park WA 6100
593-595 Albany Highway, Victoria Park WA 6100
Price
Contact agent
1-28, 40 Civic Way, Rouse Hill NSW 2155
1-28, 40 Civic Way, Rouse Hill NSW 2155
1-28, 40 Civic Way, Rouse Hill NSW 2155
Price
Contact agent
93-97 Bay Street, Brighton VIC 3186
93-97 Bay Street, Brighton VIC 3186
93-97 Bay Street, Brighton VIC 3186
Price
Contact agent
22-38 & 27-31 The Avenue, Coburg VIC 3058
22-38 & 27-31 The Avenue, Coburg VIC 3058
22-38 & 27-31 The Avenue, Coburg VIC 3058
Price
Contact agent
1F Ashline Street, Wollert VIC 3750
1F Ashline Street, Wollert VIC 3750
1F Ashline Street, Wollert VIC 3750
Price
Contact agent
Lots 100 & 900 Kentucky Court, Cockburn Central WA 6164
Lots 100 & 900 Kentucky Court, Cockburn Central WA 6164
Lots 100 & 900 Kentucky Court, Cockburn Central WA 6164
Price
Contact agent
1260-1272 Malvern Road, Malvern VIC 3144
1260-1272 Malvern Road, Malvern VIC 3144
1260-1272 Malvern Road, Malvern VIC 3144
Price
Contact agent
472 Regency Road, Prospect SA 5082
472 Regency Road, Prospect SA 5082
472 Regency Road, Prospect SA 5082
Price
Contact agent
273A Gorge Road, Paradise SA 5075
273 Gorge Road, Paradise SA 5075 - 273A Gorge Road, Paradise
273A Gorge Road, Paradise SA 5075
Price
Contact agent
426-440 New South Head Road, Double Bay NSW 2028
426-440 New South Head Road, Double Bay NSW 2028
426-440 New South Head Road, Double Bay NSW 2028
Price
Contact agent