Property 2019

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<p>It's well known that most <a href="http://petewargent.com/2019/01/10/being-approximately-right-not-precisely-wrong/" target="_blank">market predictions</a> are a <a href="http://petewargent.com/2018/01/04/forecasting-fails/" target="_blank">waste of time</a>: they usually just project <a href="http://petewargent.com/2019/01/02/the-small-numbers-fallacy/" target="_blank">more of what's been happening</a>, and are rarely much chop at picking turning points. </p>
<div>With almost no housing market activity over the long Easter break, this does feel like a potential <a href="http://petewargent.com/2018/01/07/tipping-point/" target="_blank">inflection point</a> - for better or worse - and certainly it's as a good a time as any for a largely baseless opinion piece. </div>
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<div>It's clear that the speculative heat has been well and truly removed from the housing market by the credit squeeze and a range of other factors. </div>
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<div>In fact, the reverse is now the case, with investor credit growth running at the lowest level in Australia's history.</div>
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<div>The stock of interest-only loans has been spectacularly reduced by regulatory tweaks and is also at the lowest share on record: probably down to about 21 per cent of residential loans by value by the end of this quarter, representing an epic decline from 39 per cent in early 2017.</div>
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<p><span>The share of high LVR lending is also tracking at around the lowest level on recent record.</span></p>
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<p><br><span>Low-doc lending, meanwhile, has been all but eliminated over the past decade. </span></p>
<div>Average paper net rental losses (aka. 'negative gearing') claimed are at the lowest level in almost a decade-and-a-half, with further declines in the post on rising yields, lower mortgage rates, and changes to allowable deductions for plant and equipment depreciation and travel. </div>
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<div><span>With loans being tested for serviceability at 7¼ per cent lending metrics have, if anything, become too conservative, and borrowing capacity has in many cases been reduced by 20 to 40 per cent (or simply eliminated entirely for many portfolio investors).  </span></div>
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<div><span>Almost every way you look at it, credit has rarely been so tough to come by. </span></div>
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<div><strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">Prices cooled since early 2017</span></strong></div>
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<div>If the housing market downturn was to end here then I reckon most sober commentators and respected international observers would applaud a job well executed. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>In any event, a lot of the 'bubble' talk is way overdone.</div>
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<div>There's a lot of debt on a gross basis; but mortgage serviceability isn't particularly stretched, while there's also been an unprecedented build-up in cash and cash equivalents, mortgage buffers, and balances in offset accounts.</div>
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<div>In Adelaide it's not all that hard to buy a house for the same price as a decade ago, which given where mortgage rates have gone must represent about a 50 per cent improvement in affordability (without backing this statement up with any hard numbers). </div>
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<div>In Brisbane apartment prices are often seen to be lower than they were almost a dozen years ago, so affordability is now stupendously high compared to where it was. </div>
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<div>Housing prices had already declined for years in Perth; and they've been roundly smashed in Darwin.</div>
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<div>The major house price gains since 2012 were seen in Sydney, where median prices have since declined over a period of more than two years by about 13 per cent, representing a real decline versus incomes nudging about 20 per cent from the peak (much more in parts of Western Sydney, according to a piece in the AFR this week). </div>
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<div>It seems that most of the regulatory actions taken to cool the housing market have all but washed through, but despite the lower fixed mortgage rates on offer lately market activity is still awfully gummed up.</div>
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<div>And there's still a non-trivial possibility that the actions taken to promote financial stability, in the end, sink it. </div>
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<div>The economy has been stymied for some time now, with two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth in per capita terms possibly set to be repeated for a third quarter. Consumption and retail are weak. </div>
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<div>It's difficult to get an accurate real-time reading of housing market turnover but many experienced commentators seem to believe it's at the lowest level on record. </div>
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<br>So, what gives?</div>
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<div><strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">Responsible lending: level up</span></strong></div>
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<div>A major part of the challenge for activity in the housing market is some of the breathtaking pedantry related to mortgage applications, which I've experienced a bit of, but often only mortgage brokers have a really good feel for. </div>
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<div>There's always a chance that responsible lending morphs into a nanny state mentality, and this is now almost literally becoming so in some cases.</div>
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<div>When lenders are stress-testing for scenarios incorporating up to the equivalent of a dozen or more rate hikes it defies belief that a homebuyer registering for Netflix or using Uber might be grounds for the refusal of a loan, but the banking Royal Commission brought this level of paranoia to the fore. </div>
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<div>These sometimes amusing and apparently trivial examples are merely the tip of the iceberg in what has been at times a truly Titanic pile of administrative poppycock.</div>
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<div>Everyone involved in mortgage lending knows that consumer behaviour and discretionary spend changes post-purchase, so all this rigmarole is largely fruitless and may now be effectively adding to FS risks rather than reducing them. </div>
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<div><strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">Tipping point</span></strong></div>
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<div>Lower interest rates alone don't fix this; but in truth I don't know what does. </div>
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<div>Maybe it's the simply passage of time.</div>
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<div>Perhaps lenders need some assurance that they aren't going to be hauled over the coals even more than has already been the case. </div>
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<div>By the same token prospective homebuyers would doubtless like to see more certainty given the recent shifting of goalposts (with further changes to market dynamics now proposed by the Labor Party). </div>
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<div>Whatever's the case, something needs to get mortgages flowing dependably again, or else there's a risk that the measures to shore up risks in the housing market will no longer be hailed as a success, but instead blamed for capsizing it.</div>
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<em>PETE WARGENT is the co-founder of AllenWargent property buyers (London, Sydney) and a best-selling author and <a href="https://petewargent.blogspot.com/" target="_blank">blogger</a>.</em><span> </span>
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Speculative heat removed from the housing market by the credit squeeze: Pete Wargent

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<p class="post-title entry-title">EXPERT OBSERVER</p>
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<div>In May 2018, I noted that I didn't think we'd end up with a major housing crunch.</div>
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<div>Part of my reasoning was that 'lenders gonna lend'.</div>
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<div>In other words, just as we've used a knife and fork for more than 800 years, Australia's financial system has been deregulated for decades, and we still have four major banks, all of which need to lend money to make money.</div>
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<div>I felt this would insulate the housing downturn, despite the heavy macroprudential changes.</div>
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<div>What wasn't so clear at that time, at least to me, was the full impact that the Royal Commission would have on the appetite of lenders. </div>
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<div>In the event, a full seven rounds of public hearings was played out in front the media throng, and the final report wasn't delivered until last month.</div>
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<div>Accordingly there have been some nervous operators over the past year or so, and there was a very noticeable impact on mortgage processing and practices. </div>
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<div><strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">Policy moves</span></strong></div>
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<div>The RC final report being submitted only in February 2019, this is all very much fresh in the memory, so any loosening of the credit taps is likely to be gradual.</div>
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<div>But still, with a smaller mortgage pie to be shared around - lending volumes are down by a fifth from a year earlier - and major banks having lost market share in recent years, I believe there will be some policy moves to win business and get mortgage book growth back into positive territory.</div>
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<div>It's only March, bear in mind, the month after the final RC report, but today we saw the first interesting move of any note, from ANZ Bank:</div>
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<div>90 per cent LVR investment mortgages with a 10-year interest-only term should generate a bit of welcome business for ANZ (not to mention profit, since rates and have tended to be higher on IO mortgages). </div>
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<br>And ANZ has generally been one of the more proactive lenders of late.</div>
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<div>Some context is due.</div>
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<div>Borrowers taking this option on a 10-year IO mortgage will see sundry borrowing capacity hampered, due to the way in which this mortgage debt is assessed.</div>
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<div>And, indeed, most IO loans don't run for 10 years. </div>
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<div>But it's a nice cushion for borrowers seeking IO certainty, and moreover it's the first positive signal of competition returning for investor borrowers. </div>
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<em>PETE WARGENT is the co-founder of AllenWargent property buyers (London, Sydney) and a best-selling author and <a href="https://petewargent.blogspot.com/" target="_blank">blogger</a>.</em><span> </span>
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Credit to loosen a little: Pete Wargent

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<div>EXPERT OBSERVER</div>
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<div>With the blindingly obvious caveat that an index doesn't denote anything meaningful for individual properties, metropolitan housing prices are now rising again. </div>
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<div>Sydney and Melbourne home values both rose over the week for the first time since all the way back in 2017, with a 0.3 per cent gain for Sydney, and a marginal increase in Melbourne. </div>
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<span>Commonwealth Bank CEO Matt Comyn reported the largest volume of loan applications in six months this week, now that the looming threat of wholesale changes to taxation has been extinguished. </span><br><span><br></span><span>Whether or not those loans are approved on a timely basis...let's see. </span>
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<span>The bottom's been 'n' gone in the established housing market, but ne</span><span>w dwelling markets still have a long way to clear. </span>
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<div><span>It was interesting to note during the downturn phase that all those old real estate clichés about there 'always' being a level of competition for A-grade stock did to a large extent hold true.</span></div>
<div><span> </span></div>
<div>In saying that, some investors still got battered by paying wildly inflated prices during the frenzied peak, or through overcapitalising. </div>
<p><em><strong>PETE WARGENT</strong> is the co-founder of AllenWargent property buyers (London, Sydney) and a best-selling author and <a href="https://petewargent.blogspot.com/" target="_blank">blogger</a>.</em><span> </span></p>
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The property rebound is on: Pete Wargent

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<p>It was a tricky year in the property markets last year, with the landscape shifting in some capitals following the Federal election which saw a new FHB initiative.</p>
<p>There were many stories that caught the eye of our readership.</p>
<p>Property Observer's 19 most popular stories of 2019 including our regular columnist Terry Ryder who endeavoured to point out <a href="https://www.urban.com.au/news/102897-australia-s-top-10-property-price-growth-areas-in-2019-hotspotting-s-terry-ryder" target="_blank">Australia's top 10 property price growth areas</a>.</p>
<p>There was also Ryder's contribution on <a href="https://www.urban.com.au/news/93846-where-is-it-a-good-time-to-be-buying-property-in-2019-hotspotting-s-terry-ryder" target="_blank">Where is it a good time to be buying property in 2019</a>.</p>
<p>There was also strong reader interest in the <a href="https://www.urban.com.au/expert-insights/93975-top-five-suburbs-for-property-investors-in-2019-margaret-lomas" target="_blank">Top five suburbs for property investors in 2019: by Margaret Lomas</a>.</p>
<p>Bad news triggered strong interest especially when <a href="https://www.urban.com.au/news/99143-prestige-melbourne-home-builder-canny-builders-goes-into-voluntary-administration" target="_blank">Prestige Melbourne home builder Canny Builders went into voluntary administration</a>. </p>
<p>In Sydney there was the <a href="https://www.urban.com.au/expert-insights/investing/94759-chinese-epping-developer-collapse-sees-61-gondon-elysee-apartments-for-sale" target="_blank">Chinese Epping developer collapse triggering 61 Gondon Elysee apartments for sale</a>.</p>
<p>We watched after <a href="https://www.urban.com.au/news/95469-landmark-white-shares-fall-10-percent-after-dark-web-data-revelation" target="_blank">LandMark White shares fall 10 percent after dark web data revelation</a>.</p>
<p>A big story was after cracks emerged in the apartment market with concerns over the quality of construction.</p>
<p>The issue extended to legacy builders as evident when <a href="https://www.urban.com.au/news/100847-cracks-see-frasers-property-clemton-park-village-caught-up-in-apartment-building-defect-calamity" target="_blank">Cracks saw Frasers Property Clemton Park Village caught up in widening apartment building defect calamity</a>.</p>
<p>Readers were keen to see the <a href="https://www.urban.com.au/news/95239-nsw-government-to-appoint-building-commissioner-following-industry-reform-report" target="_blank">NSW government appoint Building Commissioner following industry reform report</a>.</p>
<p>There were <a href="https://www.urban.com.au/news/97069-precast-column-movement-concerns-stops-work-at-cbus-447-collins-street-pantscaper-twin-tower-project" target="_blank">Precast column movement concerns that briefly stopped work at CBUS 447 Collins Street, Pantscraper twin tower project</a>.</p>
<p>There were emerging trends including <a href="https://www.urban.com.au/expert-insights/97736-techfin-and-the-technology-battle-of-the-banks" target="_blank">Techfin and the technology battle of the banks</a>. </p>
<p>Along with build to rent. <a href="https://www.urban.com.au/news/94005-nsw-government-shortlists-three-consortia-for-redfern-build-to-rent-development" target="_blank">NSW Government shortlists three consortia for Redfern build-to-rent development</a>.</p>
<p><span>The 19th most popular article was a curiosity story showing the a<a href="https://www.urban.com.au/news/97069-precast-column-movement-concerns-stops-work-at-cbus-447-collins-street-pantscaper-twin-tower-project" target="_blank"> </a>s</span>hift to residency seeing <a href="https://www.urban.com.au/news/96972-shift-to-residency-sees-sydney-s-palm-beach-top-ato-tax-payers-list" target="_blank">Sydney's Palm Beach top ATO tax payers list</a>. </p>
<p>There's no higher profile celebrity than <a href="https://www.urban.com.au/news/94330-selling-houses-australia-s-andrew-winter-lists-his-own-reno" target="_blank">Selling Houses Australia's property guru Andrew Winter who listed his own reno</a>. It did sell eventually.</p>
<p>Readers loved it when <a href="https://www.urban.com.au/news/94708-delta-goodrem-secures-4-8-million-paparazzi-proof-sydney-bolthole2" target="_blank">Delta Goodrem secured a $4.8 million paparazzi-proof Sydney bolthole</a>.</p>
<p>The Block always captures attend and last year it was <a href="https://www.urban.com.au/expert-insights/building/101990-the-agency-s-jesse-raeburn-portrayed-as-cocky-contestant-on-skint-the-block-goldrush-series" target="_blank">The Agency's Jesse Raeburn when portrayed as cocky contestant on skint The Block Goldrush series</a>.</p>
<p>There's no sale yet but readers were interested in <a href="https://www.urban.com.au/news/96476-mortgage-choice-boss-peter-higgins-lists-richmond-polo-farm" target="_blank">Mortgage Choice co-founder Peter Higgins listing Sydney Polo Club</a>.</p>
<p>Development projects always attract interest: we saw strong readership of the <a href="https://www.urban.com.au/expert-insights/buying/95584-development-approval-for-goldfields-project-in-chatswood" target="_blank">Development approval for Goldfields project in Chatswood</a>.</p>
<p>Plus interest when the <a href="https://www.urban.com.au/expert-insights/investing/103421-historic-cyclops-leichhardt-toy-factory-listed-with-development-potential" target="_blank">Historic Cyclops, Leichhardt toy factory was listed with development potential</a>.</p>
<p>There was interest when the <a href="https://www.urban.com.au/expert-insights/investing/103306-leichhardt-warehouse-with-residential-development-potential-sold-for-3-335-million" target="_blank">Leichhardt warehouse with residential development potential sold for $3.335 million</a>.</p>
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Property Observer's top 19 stories of 2019

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<p>EXPERT OBSERVER</p>
<p>According to ABS housing finance data for August 2019, first home buyers comprised the largest proportion of national owner occupier mortgage activity since early 2012.  </p>
<p>The data showed first home buyers comprised 29.8% of the national market for owner occupier home loans; almost five percentage points above the decade average of 25%.</p>
<p> A similar trend can be seen across every state, with first home buyers a larger proportion of the market relative to the decade average.<br><br>There are a variety of factors that have provided first time buyers with a leg up into the housing market.  Housing affordability has improved through the recent housing downturn, mortgage rates have come down, home loan servicing rules have been relaxed and some states have provided additional incentives for first home buyers in the form of stamp duty exemptions or discounts as well as existing first home buyer grants which generally apply to the purchase of new dwellings across most states.  </p>
<p><img src="https://www.corelogic.com.au/sites/default/files/2019-10/first_home_buyers_as_a_of_all_owner_occupier_mortgage_commitments_nationally.png" width="600" height="251"></p>
<p>First home buyers, as a % of all owner occupier mortgage commitments nationally</p>
<p>There’s also the fact that first home buyers haven’t had to compete as fiercely with investors, with investor activity generally trending lower since peaking in 2015 at 43% of mortgage demand.  The August update shows investors comprised only 26% of mortgage demand which is well below the decade average of 34%.</p>
<p><img src="https://www.corelogic.com.au/sites/default/files/2019-10/first_home_buyers_nsw_and_vic.png" width="600" height="266"></p>
<p>First home buyers are the most active across the Northern Territory and Western Australia where this segment of the market comprises 45% and 37% respectively of owner occupier mortgage demand.  These are also the two regions where housing values have fallen the most, providing a substantial improvement to housing affordability.  Dwelling values are down 27% since peaking across the Northern Territory and 23% lower since peaking across Western Australia.  </p>
<p><img src="https://www.corelogic.com.au/sites/default/files/2019-10/first_home_buyers_qld_and_sa.png" width="600" height="262"></p>
<p><br>The regions where first home buyers are the least active are South Australia and Tasmania where first time buyers comprised 22% and 24% of owner occupier mortgage demand in August.  Despite being the lowest of any state, first home buyer participation remains above the decade average in these regions. </p>
<p><img src="https://www.corelogic.com.au/sites/default/files/2019-10/first_home_buyers_wa_and_tas.png" width="600" height="241"></p>
<p>Looking forward it’s likely first home buyer’s will reduce as a proportion of overall market activity.  Housing prices are once again rising across most regions of the country while growth in household incomes remain sluggish, which will create renewed housing affordability pressures in markets where home values are rising faster than incomes.  </p>
<p><img src="https://www.corelogic.com.au/sites/default/files/2019-10/first_home_buyers_nt_and_act_0.png" width="600" height="246"></p>
<p><br><br>Additionally, investor activity is likely to ramp up as the prospects for capital gain start to become more widespread and the spread between rental yields and mortgage rates remains around record lows.  Capital city gross rental yields are tracking at 3.7% compared with three year fixed rate mortgages for investment purposes tracking around 3.8%.  In the past, rising home values and greater participation from investors has seen first home buyer activity reduce.<br><br>The First Home Loan Deposit Scheme, which goes live in January next year is likely to be oversubscribed, however we aren’t expecting this program to make a substantial difference to overall first home buyer participation rates considering the scheme is capped at 10,000 buyers, which equates to less than 10% of first home buyers numbers over the past year.</p>
<p><em><strong>TIM LAWLESS</strong> is the CoreLogic Head of Research</em></p>
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First home buyers accounted for largest segment of mortgage activity since 2012: Tim Lawless

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<p>EXPERT OBSERVER</p>
<p>There is a wide-spread belief that Reserve Bank Governor Lowe’s speech on 21 May clearly indicated that the RBA are set to cut official interest rates on Tuesday 4 June when they next meet.</p>
<p>While I (and the interest rate futures market and the overwhelming majority of economic commentators) believe that is still the most likely outcome, I can see a scenario whereby the RBA once again keeps rates on hold.</p>
<p>People love to tell me that housing isn’t the economy, and they’re right it isn’t however, it is the largest single asset class in the country and thereby pretty important to the health of the economy. Over recent weeks there have been a number of changes that have been overall a positive for the housing market going forward:</p>
<p>There was no change of government at the federal election. Whether you believe that changing the rules around negative gearing and the capital gains tax discount would have a big impact on the market or not, those proposed changes did inject a level of uncertainty into the market.</p>
<p>While the Labor Party was expected by most to win the election, the aftermath of a Coalition win seems to have seen a level of confidence returning to the market.</p>
<p>Dwelling value declines were already slowing but now lenders are reporting much higher levels of mortgage demand and auction clearance rates last week lifted to their highest level nationally since mid-May last year and in Sydney they increased to their highest level since April last year. </p>
<p>APRA has signalled they are looking to change serviceability calculations on new mortgages.</p>
<p>Ultimately it will mean that some people that previously weren’t able to borrow will be able to and those that could already borrow will potentially be able to borrow more.</p>
<p>Again, these changes aren’t yet live but once implemented, easier access to a housing loan should support a lift in market activity and help to provide a floor under housing prices.</p>
<p>The RBA flagged that interest rates would be reduced. After official interest rates have remained on hold for 33 months, Governor Lowe dropped his biggest hint yet that interest rates will be reduced in June during his speech on the 21 May.</p>
<p>Interest rate cuts put more cash in mortgage holders pockets, if someone is struggling to repay their mortgage they can contact their banks and ask for a reduction in repayments (assuming lenders pass on a cut which is highly likely) and for those that choose not to reduce their repayments they end up paying back more of the loan principal thereby paying down debt quicker.</p>
<p>Furthermore, a lower cash rate typically means lower interest rates on savings accounts, thereby reducing the incentive to save and increasing the incentive to spend.</p>
<p>All three of those items are overall a positive for the housing market. It is important to note that items two and three have not yet happened so anyone now buying could have bought pre-election but chose not to.</p>
<p>To me that indicates a concern around policy changes proposed by the party perceived as most likely to win the election. So with the largest asset class looking more positive why would the RBA choose to cut now? It’s not a cut about housing it is a cut related to economic growth and inflation.</p>
<p>Headline inflation was unchanged over the March quarter and just 1.3% higher over the year.</p>
<p>The RBA’s preferred measure of underlying inflation was 0.2% over the quarter and 1.4% higher over the year, both drifting further away from the 2% to 3% target range. Underlying inflation has been allowed to sit below the target range since December 2015 and hasn’t hit the midpoint (2.5%) since September 2014.</p>
<p>Gross Domestic Product (GDP) or economic growth was recorded as 0.2% over the December 2018 quarter its lowest growth rate since September 2016. On an annual basis, GDP rose 2.3% which was its slowest rate of growth since June 2017.So we have low inflation and sluggish economic growth, which has been the case for some time but both have weakened further in their recent releases.</p>
<p>The RBA has repeatedly stated the main reason for not cutting interest rates is the strength of the labour market however, it has now also weakened. On a seasonally adjusted basis, the unemployment rate in April 2019 was 5.2% having risen for two consecutive months and the highest unemployment rate since August 2018.</p>
<p>Although the unemployment rate has risen, annual jobs growth has increased to 2.6%, its fastest growth rate since June 2018 and the workforce participation rate at 65.8%, the highest it’s been since January 2018.</p>
<p>So while the unemployment rate has weakened, more people are in work or looking for work and job creation has accelerated. We should note that unemployment is typically a lagging indicator and measures of job advertisements are showing slowdown over recent months.</p>
<p>Given all of this, I still believe than an interest rate cut on June 4 is the most likely scenario but I won’t be surprised if the RBA, which has taken a slow and measured approach to cash rate setting of late, is tempted to wait another month.</p>
<p>Waiting another month will allow the RBA to gather more evidence as to whether the housing market is truly improving and it will afford them the luxury of seeing the March quarter GDP figures which are released the day after their board meeting (June 5).</p>
<p>Another weak quarter of economic growth will surely trigger the need for a 25 basis point or even 50 basis point cut to the cash rate in July. Furthermore, by the time of the RBA’s July board meeting there will be another read on the labour force and if there is another monthly increase in the unemployment rate that surely constitutes a trend.</p>
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What if the RBA doesn't cut rates? Cameron Kusher

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<p>EXPERT OBSERVER</p>
<p>Dwelling value drops of -7.2% over the year to April 2019 highlights just how easy it can be to forget the diversity across property market performance as some regions continue to deliver solid growth conditions while others drag averages lower.</p>
<p>Over the 12 months to April 2019, Adelaide, Hobart and Canberra were the only capital cities in which dwelling values haven’t fallen. Although value declines have been prevalent, there are certain SA2 regions which have significantly outperformed the broad capital city and equally many regions have significantly underperformed.</p>
<p><strong> Sydney:</strong> With dwelling values having fallen by -10.9% over the year to April 2019, only two SA2 regions, both of which are located in the Blue Mountains, have recorded annual growth. A further region of the Blue Mountains has recorded one of the most moderate declines along with two regions on the Northern Beaches. In terms of the Sydney regions with the greatest value declines, SA2 regions in the Inner South West are prevalent on the list.</p>
<p><strong>Melbourne:</strong> Over the 12 months to April 2019, dwelling values have reduced by 10.0%. Only two SA2 regions have recorded a rise in values and the five regions with the strongest annual change were located close to the city centre, demonstrating some strength in the established unit market. On the other hand, the five regions that have recorded the greatest annual fall were all located in Melbourne’s Inner East.</p>
<p><strong> Brisbane:</strong> Dwelling values are down marginally over the past year, having fallen by -1.9%. The top five SA2 regions with the strongest value growth over the past year are all located in the west of the city and are either within or towards Ipswich. The regions with the largest value falls are much more varied with some emphasis around areas with a mix of residential and industrial land uses featuring on the list.</p>
<p><strong>Adelaide:</strong> Over the past year, dwelling values have continued to rise (marginally) up 0.3% over the year. The strongest performing regions are all located either within the Central and Hills region or the North region of the city. The regions with the largest annual value falls are more mixed, with two situated in the Central and Hills region, two in the North and one in the South.</p>
<p><a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2019/5/9/May%209%20Property%20Pulse%202.JPG" target="_blank">Click</a> to enlarge.</p>
<p><img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2019/5/9/May%209%20Property%20Pulse%202.JPG" alt=""></p>
<p><strong>Perth:</strong> Dwelling values have been falling since mid 2014 and have declined by a further -8.3% over the 12 months to April 2019. Given this it is no surprise only one SA2 region of the city has recorded an increase in values over the year. The regions with the most moderate declines were all located in either the North West or North East of the city. Conversely, the 5 regions with the largest value falls over the past year were all in either Perth’s South West or Mandurah highlighting a fairly distinct area in which the largest falls are occurring.</p>
<p><strong>Hobart:</strong> Values have increased by 3.8% over the past year which is the largest annual increase of all capital cities. The areas with the strongest value growth over the year are quite diverse both geographically and based on the value of dwellings however, 3 are situated in the North East. The list includes some of the most affordable and most expensive regions of the city. Four of the five regions with the most moderate value change over the year are located in the city centre and are some of the most expensive regions of the city.</p>
<p><strong>Darwin:</strong> Dwelling values have been falling since mid2015 and have declined by a further -7.1% over the past year. With such weak conditions only one region of the city (Wagaman) recorded an increase in values. The regions with the most moderate value declines were typically amongst the more expensive areas of the city. Conversely, the areas in which value falls were greatest were generally located close to the city centre however, highlighting the ongoing weakness across the inner city apartment sector.</p>
<p><strong>Canberra: </strong>Over the 12 months to April 2019, dwelling values in Canberra have risen by 2.5%. Four of the five regions with the greatest value increase over the past year were located in the northern area of the city around Belconnen and Gungahlin. Meanwhile three of the five weakest markets over the year were also in the north of the city while some of the weakest performers were amongst the most affordable regions of the city. With dwelling values falling broadly across the capital cities, there are still some precincts where values are continuing to trend higher, although the list of positive growth areas has shrunk over the past year.</p>
<p><a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2019/5/9/May%209%20Property%20Pulse.JPG" target="_blank">Click</a> to enlarge.</p>
<p><img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2019/5/9/May%209%20Property%20Pulse.JPG" alt=""></p>
<p>Looking to the data there is some suggestion that in individual cities certain geographic areas and value points are more likely to still be seeing values increase than others.</p>
<p><em><span>CAMERON KUSHER</span> is the head of research for the Australian branch of CoreLogic</em></p>
<p><em>Kusher regularly posts on the <a href="https://www.corelogic.com.au/taxonomy/corelogic-people/cameron-kusher" target="_blank">CoreLogic website</a>.</em></p>
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Capital city dwelling values drop 7.2% in 1 year: Cameron Kusher

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<p>Australian household balance sheets are seeing significant shifts that are likely to restrain demand and are a key risk to the domestic outlook, according to Westpac's latest Red Book.</p>
<p>In particular, a prospective ‘wealth effect’ drag on demand stemming from the decline in house prices is a major area of uncertainty. </p>
<p>Given the importance of this issue, Westpac economists will be providing more regular updates going forward.</p>
<p>For the most part this will be building on previous commentary profiling trends by state, looking at consumer sentiment during previous wealth effect episodes, sizing the current wealth decline, and providing some sensitivity analysis around potential wealth effects.</p>
<p><img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2019/4/18/Redbook%20Wealth%20Effect%201.JPG" alt=""></p>
<p><em>(Source: Westpac)</em></p>
<p>The housing correction is starting to have a clearer impact on the household balance sheet.</p>
<p>The total value of dwelling assets fell $270bn over 2018, reflecting both lower prices and slower dwelling completions.</p>
<p>The decline amounts to 40% of annual income and is about half of the peak to trough falls seen in the GFC and 2011-12 correction.</p>
<p>While the overall decline in net worth, including other assets, is a touch milder than our early estimates it has clearly extended into 2019.</p>
<p>Chart 14 shows Westpac estimates of household net worth and savings rates by state updated to Q4.</p>
<p><em><img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2019/4/18/Redbook%20Wealth%20Effect%202.JPG" alt=""></em></p>
<p><em>(Source: Westpac)</em></p>
<p>Recall that the ‘signature’ of a wealth effect drag is a fall in net worth accompanied by a rise in the savings rate, the latter meaning that spending is growing at a slower pace than incomes.</p>
<p>Also Westpac noted that these estimates are compiled from a range of annual and quarterly benchmarks, and as such should be treated as broadly indicative. </p>
<p>The latest estimates show larger falls in net worth in NSW and Vic where declines are closer to 60% of annual income. That said, they also show the extent of the prior run up with net worth in both states still well above 2015 levels. </p>
<p>On savings, the latest data again points to declines concentrated in NSW and Vic consistent with a wealth effect boost to spending rather than a drag. Any hint of a turn in Q1 will be a key pointer to demand.</p>
<p>The Wealth effect has been seen to have supported demand over 2013-17.</p>
<p>Falls in wealth are less likely to impact when the labour market is strong and income growth is firm.</p>
<p>The latest spending detail shows a clear slowing in wealth-sensitive items, slightly more so in NSW, Vic and WA.</p>
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