Prime Minister

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GUEST OBSERVER
Business confidence slipped in October, offsetting most of the gains made in the previous month in response to the new Prime Minister. Although it is still early days for the new government, this is a disappointing result. On the other hand, current business conditions remained at their high level, reflecting the general improvement in the non-mining economy. 
After business confidence rose sharply in September, we noted the importance for both the government and the broader economy of sustaining this increase. Today’s data suggest that this is not going to be a straightforward task. However, the fall is somewhat surprising given solid increases in consumer confidence and in the government’s poll results over the same period.
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 That said, the fall in the NAB measure of business confidence brings it broadly back into line with the Roy Morgan business confidence series, which had been weaker previously.
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 It appears that Australian businesses are still sensitive to overseas conditions. Australian business confidence has tracked the softening in the global PMI which is a good proxy for global growth (Figure 2).
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 In more positive news, current business conditions remained elevated and are supportive of further solid growth in the non-mining economy in the near term (Figures 3 and 4).
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 The details were also encouraging. While profitability has eased a little, it remains at a high level and bodes well for near-term employment growth (Figure 4). Capacity utilisation continued to slowly improve, but our view is that ample spare capacity remains in the economy, limiting upward pressure on inflation, despite the risk that we see some belated pass-through from the lower AUD to tradables inflation (Figure 7). 
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Daniel Gradwell is economist and Justin Fabo is senior economist <a href="https://www.anz.com/corporate/research/" target="_blank">ANZ Research</a>.
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 Australian business confidence unwinds most of the Turnbull bounce: ANZ Research

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GUEST OBSERVER
The Prime Minister’s statement yesterday that there will be no changes to capital gains tax (CGT) on housing has the full support of the residential building industry. 
New housing is one of the most highly taxed commodities in the Australian economy.
In the lead up to last year’s election there were a range of proposals from reducing CGT on investment properties to applying the tax on the family home. Yesterday’s categorical statement by the government provides continued certainty to the industry and to investors.
The housing industry has opposed changes to the way capital gains are currently treated on investment properties. It would mean investors pay even more tax.
Right now, around two dollars out of every five that an individual pays for a new home is tax. 
Buyers pay those taxes. And then they pay taxes on the taxes. They pay stamp duty on top of taxes, including the GST. And when they eventually sell the property, if they make any money, they pay tax on that. 
Housing cannot be asked to pay even more taxes. It would simply have the opposite effect. 
When it comes to improving housing affordability, the focus should be on increasing supply year on year. This won’t happen by removing the incentives to build new homes and placing pressure on existing housing prices to meet demand.
Graham Wolfe is deputy managing director, HIA, and can be contacted <a href="https://hia.com.au" target="_blank">here</a>.
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PM’s capital gains tax decision the right one: HIA's Graham Wolfe

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GUEST OBSERVER
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Incoming Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull should refocus the Federal Government onto the importance of Australia’s cities. 
With over 80% of Australian’s living in cities the Federal Government has a key role to play in how our cities develop. 
Malcolm Turnbull, as the new Prime Minister, has an opportunity to refocus how Federal Government expenditure on infrastructure projects can stimulate the growth of Australia’s cities. 
The Urban Taskforce believes that State Governments must have the major responsibility for managing cities but the Federal Government which collects most of the taxes needs to allocate funds to urban infrastructure projects. This must include public transport projects as well as major road projects.
Sydney is leading the way in urban density driven by preferences for apartment living in cosmopolitan environments and this higher density is ideal for new public transport projects. 
Across Australia all urban areas will be moving towards denser environments related to apartment living. The Federal Government can give incentives to State and Local Governments that support greater densities by funding key infrastructure projects. 
The current review of Federation and the relative roles of State and Federal Governments must have cities and their growth as a key issue.
Malcolm Turnbull has a good understanding of the importance of encouraging density in our cities, supported by infrastructure as outlined in a presentation in 2013. 
Chris Johnson is chief executive officer of property development industry group Urban Taskforce and can be contacted <a href="https://www.urbantaskforce.com.au/index.php?option=com_content&amp;view=article&amp;id=97&amp;Itemid=126#.Vdaart55dFI" target="_blank">here</a>.
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Turnbull can refocus the Federal Government on cities: Urban Taskforce

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EXPERT OBSERVER
Yet another new Prime Minister in Canberra. Does this mean it’s time to check our smoke alarms? It’d be comical if it wasn’t so concerning.
The frequent changes in leadership and constant mud-slinging through the media, many people tune out of daily political news.
As prices fall in markets across the country, tuning out of politics is simply not an option for the astute property owner with much at stake in the coming election.
Ignoring Canberra and its politics can be a costly mistake as the various proposed policy changes from both the Australian Labor Party (ALP) and The Liberal Party of Australia (Liberal) camps will make a huge impact on our property landscape – affecting home-owners and investors.
The ALP unleashed a media storm when it burst out of the policy box and promised to abolish negative gearing for all properties except new housing – with a tidal wave of opposition among the investment community.
Any property owner should be very concerned about this proposal and its impact on prices.
There has been considerably less attention to other significant property-related policies that ALP has tabled such as increasing capital gains tax – which could have a monumental impact on all property sales.
Liberal’s policies have been deemed more investor-friendly – particularly keeping negative gearing in its current form and just removing travel expenses as a deduction.
A policy already implemented. So what is best for property investors – ALP or Liberal policy? There is no blanket solution and what is best will vary depending on each individual investor’s age, retirement plans and financial position.
One thing is clear – if Labor implements its new negative gearing regime – the winner will be the new housing market as any investor wanting to minimise their tax burden will snap up to new developments - new houses and new apartments.
Conversely investment in existing properties will take a nosedive as it will be far less appealing with no negative gearing benefits.
Prime Minister Scott Morrison has this week foreshadowed a “housing market crash” as a likely result of Labor’s property policies including abolishing negative gearing and halving the 50 per cent capital gains tax discount.
With an election due by the end of May next year property investors will have greater certainty about any changes to the market.
In the meantime it’s important to continue to monitor what is coming out Canberra to ensure investors are best placed to protect and grow their portfolio.
Keeping up-to-date with the proposed changes is a minefield but is best summarised in this table.
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2018/9/20/Nihilism%20table.JPG" alt="">
James Nihill (pictured above) is the Managing Director at the real estate agency Patrick Leo
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Politics of property, What does it mean for property owners: James Nihill

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Wanda Ridong (Gold Coast) Development today welcomed Australian Prime Minister Tony Abbott to the Jewel development site on the Surfers Paradise beach front.
Mr Abbott’s visit to the site of <a href="/expert-insights/buying/41620-construction-begins-at-gold-coast-s-wanda-ridong-jewel" target="_blank">the $970 million development</a>, backed by China’s largest property developer, comes just weeks after the two nations signed a Free Trade Agreement.
Wanda Ridong managing director, Weimin Xu, said the Prime Minister’s visit was an indication of the significance of the Jewel project to the Queensland and Australian economies.
 
<img src="/images/2015/07/10/700_abbot2.jpg" alt="">
“We’ve said from the start that Jewel is a $1 billion vote of confidence in the Gold Coast, Queensland and Australian economies,” Mr Xu said.
“We were honoured to have the Australian Prime Minister come to our site and gain an insight into how the project will take shape over the next three years.
When completed in the first half of 2018, Jewel will be Australia’s largest beachfront hotel and residential complex, the Gold Coast’s first absolute beachfront location in 30 years. 
Last year Mr Wang, the Wanda China's chief, gifted Prime Minister Tony Abbott with an authentic Auratic china tea set and some Tong Quing Hao tea which is now in use at the Lodge in Canberra. 
Register interest at <a href="https://sasgroup.net.au/index.php?option=com_acymailing&amp;no_html=1&amp;ctrl=url&amp;urlid=120&amp;mailid=548&amp;subid=8737&amp;Itemid=201">www.jewelgc.com</a>
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Surfers Paradise crystal inspired Jewel project gets Tony Abbott visit

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The former Kew home of the longest serving prime minister Sir Robert Menzies has been snapped up pre-auction having been listed with $4.5 million hopes. 
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/https://www.jelliscraig.com.au/property-details-74-Charles-Street-Kew/376402">Talgai, the 1890s property on leafy Charles Street</a>, played home to the Menzies family in the early 1920's.  
Their time in the five bedroom, three bathroom property was brief however as by 1924 the family had moved into their newly built Grange Road, Culdares, a reference to the eponymous Scottish seat of the Menzies clan.  
Jellis Craig agents Campbell Ward and Richard Winneke secured the sale of Talgai which last sold in 1985 for $322,000 when bought by the Curtin family.  
The property, which was rented from the printer and engraver, Charles Shugg, was where Bob and Pattie's second son, Robert was born. 
Winneke has also sold other Melbourne houses lived in by Menzies – in nearby Howard Street and in Reid Street in Balwyn. 
After his 1966 retirement, Sir Robert and Dame Patti Menzies famously lived at Haverbrack Avenue, Malvern. Witty Menzies dubbed Haverbrack Avenue "have a look avenue" on taking up residence.
This article was first published in the Weekend Australian Mansion Australia property section.
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 Former Kew home of Sir Robert Menzies sold pre-auction

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The Edgecliff office block - tenanted in part by Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull as his electorate office - has been sold.
It fetched $15.67 million having been bought from Telstra for $3.865 million in 2001. 
The 287-289 New South Head Road building was formerly the Edgecliff Post Office, a landmark building at the busy corner.
It was offered by the Scarf family as a rare opportunity to own a freestanding, mixed use property.
It is a freestanding, four storey, mixed use property, offered fully leased with a NLA 1,405 sqm.
Its net income was $955,144.74 pa.
There was secure car parking for 15 cars plus a large outdoor deck area with harbour views.
The initial marketing by Ray White Double Bay suggested there was future potential for residential conversion.
It was bought by the Spyrides family from Vaucluse. 
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Malcolm Turnbull gets new office landlord in Edgecliff

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Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull and wife Lucy were spotted post-election viewing an apartment in Point Piper, however it was not intended for them.
They were looking for their expat Singapore based son, Alex, a hedge fund manager, his wife, Yvonne Wang and their one year old daughter, Isla.
They dropped by <a href="https://www.belleproperty.com/buying/NSW/Eastern-Suburbs/Point-Piper/Apartment/64P3245-3b-8-st-mervyns-avenue-point-piper-nsw-2027" target="_blank">the unrenovated 1960s apartment</a>, (above) apparently on the spur of the moment, while taking an early afternoon stroll around their blue-ribbon neighbourhood.
They didn't turn up to the auction where 14 parties registered to bid from the 27 potential buyers who took contracts.
Last traded in 1966 at $60,200, it was knocked down to buyers who came from Kangaroo Point.
Lucy later told friends they weren't really in the market for an apartment and certainly not that expensive, as it sold for $4.3 million, some $1.2 million over reserve.
With the highest price in the block previously being $3.8 million next door, Belle Property Double Bay agent Albert Sassoon had marketed it as a 'house-sized apartment'.
It has three bedrooms, two bathrooms and a large balcony with views of the Sydney Harbour.
Alex has recently launched a mobile phone application 'GoCatch' with Seek co-founder Paul Bassat. The taxi booking app has been backed by casino tycoon James Packer.
Alex worked for Goldman Sachs before joining a private equity firm in Singapore.
This article was first published in the Saturday Daily Telegraph.
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Malcolm and Lucy Turnbull walk into pricey Point Piper open for inspection

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Former prime minister Paul Keating has joined leading commercial financier MaxCap as a stakeholder and board member, as it looks to fill the gap in commercial lending left by banks' tightening criteria. 
MaxCap, which manages more than $3 billion of commercial real estate mortgages, claims to be leading the charge on super funds investing in lucrative commercial real estate lending.
MaxCap managing director and founding partner Wayne Lasky was cited by Fairfax Media as saying that Keating was providing strategic advice and had invested in the business.
Keating, who was PM from 1991 to 1996, recently said if a decision was taken to allow young Australians to access their superannuation to buy a house, it would “rob them” of savings later in life and called it an “irresponsible idea” in an opinion piece on Fairfax Media.
MaxCap group recently teamed up with Australia’s biggest industry super fund, Australian Super, to offer large $100 million-plus loans direct to developers.
Keating joined MaxCap late last year as a director.
The former PM's government was behind the 1992 creation of Australia's compulsory employer contribution scheme that now looks after $2 trillion in superannuation retirement savings.
"If a former head of state seeks to take an investment in a business, they do even more due diligence than institutional investors. Paul carefully guards his legacy, and rightfully so. Having done that work with us, he wanted to get a stake. We're happy to accommodate it," Lasky said.
"It's a big shot in the arm to the sector. When you've got the big instos [institutional investors] participating and you've got the former prime minister participating, you can see where it's moving to in the future."
MaxCap focuses on filling the gap in commercial lending left by the banks after the Australian Prudential Regulatory Authority tightened rules in the wake of the global financial crisis.
Lasky said Australia's commercial property lending was a $220 billion market, with more than 80 per cent of funding dominated by the big four banks.
APRA's imposition of stricter international Basel banking requirements will shrink the bank's market share and open up a $30 to $40 billion funding gap, he said.
"There's a structural dislocation which has been taking place since the crisis. If you've got the capital, there's pretty good lending to be done," Lasky said.
MaxCap placed $300 million in private funds through first mortgage lending over six months to December last year.
It also raised and placed $50 million in the first tranche of a $100 million first mortgage fund, with another raising expected in the next two months, he said.
A spokesman for Keating said the former PM believed it was the right time to invest into MaxCap's platform which was well placed to take advantage of the structural opportunity as the banks were obliged to withdraw from commercial funding due to Basel III and IV guidelines.
The MaxCap website is <a href="https://www.maxcapgroup.com.au" target="_blank">available here</a>.
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Former PM Paul Keating takes stake, joins board of commercial financier MaxCap

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The former prime minister Julia Gillard has joined the board of Liberman family-backed CVS Lane.
It is a Melbourne-based property finance and investment company established in 2011.
Since inception it has raised over $600 million across 75 transactions with an end value of over $4 billion.
Earlier this year former Prime Minister Paul Keating took a <a href="https://www.urban.com.au/news/67644-former-pm-paul-keating-takes-stake-joins-board-of-commercial-financier-maxcap" target="_blank">similar board role with MaxCap</a>, a rival property finance house, also based in Melbourne.
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Both finance companies are looking for growth beyond being backed by a local wealthy investors in the expanding opportunity of residential development debt which has emerged as the banks curb their exposure under pressure from the regulators.
"I'm intrigued by the work that it does, property financing," the Adelaide-based Ms Gillard told the AFR.
"That is a microcosm of understanding what's happening with the Australian economy and what's happening with global trends.
"I thought I could value-add, not by being a property finance expert – I'm never going to match it with these guys on that depth of knowledge – but by bringing to the table that broader perspective and broader expertise."
Gillard has been on the board for five months having already completed an Asia roadshow.
The former prime minister is the first independent director on the board alongside its founders including Joshua Liberman.
Gillard is also on the board of a New York based educational software group and an adviser to a US venture capital outfit, alongside her philanthropic activity including chair of mental health charity beyondblue. "I'm leading this portfolio life now, which is quite different to my old life of the one big job," she said.
The Collins Street, Melbourne-based investment house manages a range of investments, including a property partnership with Don O'Rorke's Consolidated Properties Group.
Last week CVS Lane Capital Partners and Consolidated Properties Group confirmed settlement of the sale of Casuarina Village Shopping Centre to the Sydney based investor, Whistle Funds Management for $27.4 million which represented a yield of 5.90%.
CVS has provided a first mortgage facility to assist in the acquisition of the Coburg Quarter property.
It also provided a first mortgage facility for <a href="http://www.pamada.com/oslo" target="_blank">Pamada</a> on the Oslo Apartments site, located 5km northeast of the Brisbane CBD, which will comprise 160 apartments and a retail premises upon completion.
Lee Centra is its managing director with Jason Henry, the chief financial officer. Andrew Vasarelli is the head of credit and asset management.
Its directors include Michael Goldman, Nick Pettigrew and Ari Bergman.
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