Natural Disaster

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<img src="https://counter.theconversation.edu.au/content/75287/count.gif?distributor=republish-lightbox-advanced" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1">
GUEST OBSERVER
What happens after Cyclone Debbie is a familiar process. It has been repeated many times in cities around the world. The reason is that our cities are not designed for these types of events.
So we know what comes next. Queenslanders affected by Debbie will complain about the damage, the costs and the need for insurers to act now to compensate their losses. The state and federal governments will extensively discuss who is to blame. 
The shambles will be cleared and life will eventually get back to normal. Billions of dollars will be spent on relocating people and on repairing the damage and public works. A state-level levy may even be necessary to pay for all the extra costs. Two storms, Katrina and Sandy, cost the United States more than US$200 billion between them. 
Yet we know what cyclones do. They bring, for a relatively short time, huge gusty winds. These are inconvenient but have proven not too damaging. 
The greatest risk comes from storm surge and rainfall. Both bring a huge amount of water. And all this water has to find a way to get out of our living environment. 
Despite knowing, approximately, where cyclones tend to occur, we never thought about adjusting our cities to their effects. It would make a huge financial difference if we did. 
So, what can we do to build our cities differently to ensure the impacts of cyclones – and the accompanying rainfall and storm surges – do not disrupt urban life? The answer to all of this is design. 
The usual design of current cities and towns brought us problems in the first place. We need to fundamentally rethink the design of our built-up areas.
<h2>Rethinking coastal and urban design</h2>
It starts with coastal design. We are used to building dams and coastal protection against storm surges happening once in 100 years. For comparison, the protection standards in the low-lying Netherlands are designed to protect the country against a once-in-10,000-years flood. But nature has proven to be stronger than our artificial constructs can handle.
An alternative design approach is to rely on the natural coastal processes of land forming – such as reefs, islands, mangroves, beaches and dunes. Humans can help the formation of these natural protectors by providing the triggers for them to emerge. 
As an example, when we put sand in front of the coast, the currents and waves will transport the sand towards the coast and build up new and larger beaches. This example is realised in front of the Dutch coast and is known as the sand engine. But nature will build them up to form a much stronger system than humans ever could. 
Instead of coasts, beaches and real estate being washed away, new land and larger beaches may be formed as a result of these processes. This requires design thinking, insights into the resilience of the coastal system, and understanding of the natural forces at play.
Second, urban design should reconsider the way we build our cities. Most urban areas do not have the capacity to “welcome” lots of water. And it is about lots of water, not the average shower or two. 
Until cyclones are gone, these enormous amounts of water need to be stored for a short period in dense urban areas. This goes beyond water-sensitive urban design.
Despite the benefits of water-sensitive design in many urban developments, when the going gets tough, this is just not enough. Water-sensitive urban design can barely cope with average rainfall peaks. So, in times of severe weather events, cities need to have additional spaces to store all this water.
The general rule here is to store every raindrop as long as possible where it falls.
<h2>How and where should we redesign our cities?</h2>
So, what can be done to cyclone-proof our cities? We can:
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Create larger green spaces, which are connected in a natural grid, increase the capacity of these green systems by adding eco-zones and wetlands, and redesign river and creek edges. Remove the concrete basins from every creek in the city.
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Use large public spaces, such as parking spaces near shopping centres, ovals and football pitches, for temporarily capturing and storing excess rainwater. Small adjustments at the edges of these places are generally enough to capture the water.
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Turn parking garages into temporary storage basins.
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Redesign street profiles and introduce green and water-zones in streets. Out of every three-lane street, one lane can be transformed into a green lane, which can absorb rainwater. 
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Redesign all impervious, sealed spaces and turn these into areas where the water can infiltrate the soil. Use permeable materials.
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Think in an integrated way about street infrastructure, green and ecological systems, and the water system.
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These design interventions are not new and have been done abroad in cities such as Rotterdam, Hamburg or Stockholm. If we could add to these the redesign of roofs and gardens of industrial and residential estates and turn these into green roofs and rain gardens, the city would start to operate as a huge sponge. 
When it rains, the city absorbs the huge amounts of water and releases it slowly to the creek and river system after the rain has gone. This way, green spaces and water spaces not only play an important role during and just after a cyclone, but they then add quality to people’s immediate living environment. 
And maybe the best of all this: the bill Debbie and other natural disasters would present to government, industries and insurers could be much lower.
Rob Roggema is professor of Sustainable Urban Environments, University of Technology Sydney and author for The Conversation. He can be contacted <a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/rob-roggema-351369" target="_blank">here</a>.
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jchancellor-FAypfDUnLy

Cyclone Debbie: we can design cities to withstand these natural disasters

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The risks associated with natural disasters for home loans and house prices in Australia are increasing due to the growing frequency of such events, according to the latest report from Moody's Investor Service.
In their report they found this development is credit negative for Australian residential mortgage-backed securities (RMBS) because it can lead to higher delinquencies and losses in the mortgages backing the deals.
However, the extent of mortgage delinquencies and losses caused by each individual natural disaster is likely to be moderate, given the geographic diversity of RMBS mortgage pools, insurance payouts and financial relief offered by lenders and governments.
Frequency of natural disasters is rising, increasing risks for home loans and RMBS.
Natural disasters can disrupt economic activity and therefore reduce borrowers' incomes, which can in turn lead to mortgage delinquencies and losses.
They can also result in significantly lower property values in affected areas.
Click to <a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2019/9/23/Disaster%20RMBS%202.JPG" target="_blank">open in new window</a>:
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2019/9/23/Disaster%20RMBS%202.JPG" alt="">
Natural disasters hurt the home loan sector, but the impact is moderate and temporary. After recent natural disasters, mortgage delinquencies increased by only moderate amounts.
One example they cited was that shortly after cyclone Debbie, which hit Queensland in late March and early April 2017, the 30+ day delinquency rate for home loans that were in disaster-hit areas and part of the mortgage pools of RMBS  rate increased to 2.3% after the disaster from 2.0% before the event, and dropped to 1.9% eight months afterwards.
Click to <a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2019/9/23/Disaster%20RMBS%201.JPG" target="_blank">open in new window</a>:
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2019/9/23/Disaster%20RMBS%201.JPG" alt="">
There are mitigating factors however which help keep home loan delinquencies moderate.
These mitigating factors include the geographic diversity of RMBS mortgage pools, the presence of insurance and the financial relief provided by lenders and government, Moody's Investor Service found.
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j.ballantyne1990-6AQqhLzZaK

Natural disasters are growing risk for home loan sector: Moody's

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The ruins of Nepal’s Gorkha district after the 2015 earthquake that killed nearly 9,000 people and injured 22,000. Tourism helped lead the way back.
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2020/1/8/1_Nepal_Pierre%20Prakash.jpeg" alt="">
Holidaying in a disaster zone might seem crazy, but “volunteer tourism” can actually help communities recover from natural disasters.
And if can offer a unique and rewarding experience for volunteers, if done carefully.
When disaster hits a tourist destination – whether fire, flood, cyclone or earthquake – tourists usually stay away, leaving communities to deal with a loss of income on top of the costs of repair and recovery.
On the other hand, people who feel a natural curiosity, as well as a natural desire to help, are keen for experiences where they can interact with locals and make a difference.
This “volunteer tourism” should not be confused with “disaster tourism” in which tourists immediately travel to a scene not to help but to look.
<h2>Nepal shows what can be done</h2>
We examined volunteer tourism in Nepal in the wake of the April 2015 earthquake that killed nearly 9,000 people and injured nearly 22,000.
We found that when it was done in an ethical manner that considered local conditions and the community, it could aid recovery and resilience.
It is important that the process be controlled locally and that the invitation from locals be genuine. It is also important that volunteer tourists be prepared to engage in work that mainstream tourists would not.
Our study, <a href="https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0160738319301598" target="_blank">Engaging volunteer tourism in post-disaster recovery in Nepal</a>, has just been published in the Annals of Tourism Research.
In the four months that followed the Nepal earthquake, international tourism more than halved.
Initially most relief organisations asked international volunteers not to come unless they had specific expertise, such as medical skills, building skills, or experience responding to emergencies.
Then the Pacific Asia Travel Association and Nepalese tourism industry leaders worked together to produce the report of the <a href="http://pata.org.np/wp-content/uploads/2016/06/A-Report-on-PATA-Nepal-Tourism-Rapid-Recovery-Taskforce.pdf" target="_blank">Nepal Rapid Recovery Task Force</a>, running workshops with more than 200 tourism industry leaders and professionals.
<h2>Volunteer tourism led the way back</h2>
The strategy they came up with prioritised potential tourism regrowth markets, including volunteer tourism.
Nepal relaxed conditions to allow international tourists to volunteer on a wide range of projects including rebuilding homes and schools, interning in hospitals, supporting non-government organisations and reestablishing sustainable agriculture.
It helped that Nepal was set up for it. It had already hosted organisations offering short-term travellers the opportunity to teach English and to work on health projects.
In 2015 and 2016 it hosted three global celebrities whose widely-publicised visits raised the profile and popular appeal of Nepal, especially to volunteer tourists.
<a href="https://images.theconversation.com/files/306944/original/file-20191215-85391-dpl453.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=1000&amp;fit=clip"><img src="https://images.theconversation.com/files/306944/original/file-20191215-85391-dpl453.jpg?ixlib=rb-1.1.0&amp;q=45&amp;auto=format&amp;w=237&amp;fit=clip" alt=""></a>
US actress Susan Sarandon comforts Kanti Maya Tamang, who lost her husband and daughter during the earthquake in Ramkot village on the outskirt of Kathmandu, Nepal in May 2015. NARENDRA SHRESTHA/EPA
In May 2015, Hollywood actress Susan Sarandon visited Nepal and actively promoted volunteer tourism to the North American market.
In mid-2015 Hong Kong based actor Jackie Chan visited and encouraged Chinese tourists and volunteers to come to Nepal.
In March 2016, Prince Harry (the younger son of Prince Charles) spent two weeks in Nepal engaged in volunteer programs.
Nepal’s tourism recovery since then has been remarkable.
In 2015, the year of the earthquake, just under 600,000 international tourists visited.
By 2018 the number had reached an all time record of almost 1.2 million. In 2019 it grew further. Volunteer tourism drove the recovery.
The Nepal Association of Tour and Travel Agents says almost one third of the tours booked to Nepal in the two years after the earthquake comprised groups who combined tourism experiences with volunteering or philanthropy.
<h2>It needs to meet local needs</h2>
In times of national crisis, the priority of a government has to be restoring the welfare of its people. However, the process by which that happens is multifaceted. In destinations that rely on tourism as a primary source of foreign investment, it can make sense to build tourism into the recovery process.
A focus on tourism need not detract from other critical processes such as providing health care and emergency services, clearing debris and construction.
But that’s easier said than done. Natural disasters by their very nature sow confusion, severely damage infrastructure and impose great strains on emergency management and administration.
Volunteer tourism won’t work everywhere, but where conditions are right, international visitors can speed rather than slow recovery.<img src="https://counter.theconversation.com/content/128841/count.gif?distributor=republish-lightbox-basic" alt="The Conversation" width="1" height="1">
<a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/david-beirman-4852" target="_blank">David Beirman</a>, Senior Lecturer, Tourism, <a href="http://theconversation.com/institutions/university-of-technology-sydney-936" target="_blank">University of Technology Sydney</a>; <a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/simone-faulkner-911263" target="_blank">Simone Faulkner</a>, , <a href="http://theconversation.com/institutions/university-of-technology-sydney-936" target="_blank">University of Technology Sydney</a>, and <a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/stephen-wearing-7081" target="_blank">Stephen Wearing</a>, Associate Professor, Management, <a href="http://theconversation.com/institutions/university-of-technology-sydney-936" target="_blank">University of Technology Sydney</a>
This article is republished from <a href="http://theconversation.com" target="_blank">The Conversation</a> under a Creative Commons license. Read the <a href="https://theconversation.com/holidaying-in-a-disaster-zone-isnt-as-crazy-as-it-might-seem-128841" target="_blank">original article</a>.
Main article image credit: Russell Watkins/Department for International Development.
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