Mortgage Delinquencies

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S&amp;P Global Ratings has reported that Australia's prime SPIN 30+ day delinquencies declined a little further from 1.08 per cent to 1.04 per cent in October 2017.
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31-60 day prime mortgage arrears have now been tracking at historic lows since June 2017.
There's still a bit happening in the 90+ days space, but arrears have been improving here too since May.
Year-on-year mortgage arrears were comfortably lower.
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<div>Declines were reported in all mainland states and territories. </div>
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 <div>Source: S&amp;P Global Ratings</div>
 <div>Western Australia continued to have the highest rate of 30-day arrears, declining from 2.21 per cent to 2.12 per cent. </div>
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<div>The lowest rate of delinquency was to be found in the ACT at only 0.58 per cent (Canberra has <a href="http://petewargent.blogspot.co.uk/2017/11/drain-swamp" target="_blank">by far the highest incomes</a> on the country). </div>
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<div>In New South Wales 30-day arrears fell from 0.79 per cent to only 0.75 per cent in the month.</div>
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<div>Arrears were also below 1 per cent in Victoria and Tasmania. Over the past year the biggest improvers were the southern states of Tasmania and South Australia (the other ex-mining state jurisdictions had low arrears already). <div><a href="https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-z4KH6mQAhPg/Wjg08TYwYLI/AAAAAAAAnk8/r_3IgizuDq8j_7_DPiwD5DC_iYSh_KyYwCLcBGAs/s1600/S%2526P%2BState.jpg" target="_blank"><img src="https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-z4KH6mQAhPg/Wjg08TYwYLI/AAAAAAAAnk8/r_3IgizuDq8j_7_DPiwD5DC_iYSh_KyYwCLcBGAs/s640/S%2526P%2BState.jpg" width="640" height="386" data-original-height="787" data-original-width="1302"></a></div>
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<div>As at the beginning of 2017, S&amp;P Global had reported: "We believe that the risk of a sharp, disorderly correction in house prices remains relatively low, reflecting our stable economic outlook for Australia." While risks remain, S&amp;P commented this month:</div>
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<div>"We do not expect arrears to increase much above current levels while benign economic conditions persist." </div>
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pwargent-M4siyDbqQY

Mortgage delinquencies decline further: Pete Wargent

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Mortgage delinquencies and defaults are more likely to occur in outer suburbs of Australian cities than inner-city areas, according to Moody's Investor Service.
They suggest that this is because of the lower average incomes and weaker credit characteristics in these suburbs.
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On average across Australian cities, mortgage delinquency rates are lowest in areas within five kilometres of the CBD and highest in areas 30-40 kilometres from CBDs (below).
Moody's suggest this trend is likely to continue into the foreseeable future with little changing in way of incomes and credit characteristics.
Click here <a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2018/10/10/Moodys1.jpg" target="_blank">to enlarge.</a>
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In most Australian capital cities, delinquency rates are highest in areas the furthest away from the CBD (below).
Sydney's delinquency rates grow steadily the further away from the CBD the property is, however in Melbourne, Brisbane, Adelaide and Perth, delinquency rates in suburbs closest to the city centre are slightly higher than those a little further out.
This is due to the high share of mortgages on investment properties in areas closest to the city.
Within five kilometres of the Melbourne CBD, delinquent investment loans account for 57% of all mortgage delinquencies.
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Click here <a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2018/10/10/moodys2.jpg" target="_blank">to enlarge.</a>
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Incomes and socioeconomic conditions are lower in outer suburbs, while credit characteristics are weaker.
Average incomes are lower in outer suburbs than in inner-city areas, while socioeconomic conditions are also typically weaker in outer areas. These factors increase the likelihood of mortgage delinquencies and defaults, particularly in the event of an economic downturn. 
In all Australian capital cities, average incomes decline with distance from the CBD (below), a fact that reflects the higher proportion of people employed in low-skilled jobs in these areas.
Click here <a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2018/10/10/Moodys3.jpg" target="_blank">to enlarge.</a>
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jrobinson-rf4aSBido9

Mortgage delinquencies are higher in city's outer suburbs: Moody's

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Australian RMBS delinquency rates will rise moderately over coming quarters, with high debt levels and higher interest rates putting pressure on mortgage borrowers, according to the latest RMBS report from Moody's.
This is despite delinquency rates being broadly stable over the three months ended 30 June 2018.
The 30+ day delinquency rate for prime RMBS was 1.52% in June 2018, compared with 1.5% in March 2018 and 1.6% in June 2017.
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2018/9/24/RMBS%20Moodys.JPG" alt="">
For prime RMBS issued by major banks, the 30+ day delinquency rate was 1.58% in June 2018 compared with 1.57% in March.
For regional banks, it remained flat at 1.99%, while for prime RMBS issued by other authorised deposit-taking institutions, the delinquency rate was 0.57% in June, compared with 0.51% in March.
The 30+ day delinquency rate for non-conforming RMBS was 3.16% in June 2018, compared with 3.05% in March 2018 and 3.41% in June 2017.
Moody's noted, "over coming quarters, we expect delinquencies to increases moderately, given Australia's record-high household debt, which amounts to 190% of annual gross disposable income."
High debt increases the risk of delinquencies, especially in a rising interest rate environment.
The report stated, "in late August and September, a number of Australia's major banks raised home loan interest rates, though we do not expect this round of rate rises to result in a significant increase in mortgage delinquencies, given that labour market conditions remain favourable and the rate increases were small compared with buffers built into home loan serviceability assessments."
A large number of interest-only mortgages are due to convert to principal and interest loans over the next two years, which will contribute to an increase in delinquencies over this period, according to Moody's data.
Banks originated a significant volume of interest-only loans in 2014 and 2015.
The five year interest-only period for these mortgages will end in 2019 and 2020.
The report also stated, "when interest-only loans convert to principal and interest, borrowers have to make higher monthly repayments, which can lead to delinquencies."
"On the positive side, economic and labour market conditions in Australia will continue to support borrowers’ ability to meet mortgage repayments over the next year, meaning that the increase in delinquencies will be moderate," they suggested.
Moody's forecasts real GDP growth of around 2.9% for calendar 2018 and 3% for 2019.
Australia's unemployment rate was 5.4% in June and we expect it will remain relatively stable at 5.6% by the end of 2018 and 5.5% at the end of 2019
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j.ballantyne1990-6AQqhLzZaK

Australian RMBS home loan delinquencies to rise moderately over 2018: Moody's

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Westpac's Q3 financial update saw their mortgage delinquencies soar by 55 basis points due to the COVID-19 pandemic.
Delinquencies over 30 days jumped from 188 bps to 243 bps over the three months to June.
There was an equally big jump in 90+ day delinquencies, up from 94 bps to 149 bps.
"Our approach to applying COVID-19 relief meant an increased number of customers entered hardship assistance", Westpac advised.
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The big four bank provided 135,000 home loan customers with mortgage relief up to July 31, accounting for $51 billion of their $446 billion loan book.
64% of the mortgage holders seeking the relief were owner-occupiers, and 79 per cent were paying principal and interest repayments.
The mortgage deferrals primarily came from New South Wales and Victoria, who made up 70 per cent of all mortgages deferred.
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After checking in after three months of the extension, Westpac said that half were expected to return to payment, and the other half requested a further three month extension.
That leaves $30 billion still on pause.
Westpac's total loan portfolio shrunk a touch over the three months to June, down from $445.7 billion to $445.5 billion.
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Owner-occupier numbers continued to grow, as investor loans continued their contraction, as did interest only loans, now below 22 per cent of Westpac's loan book.
More mortgage holders are now fixing their home loans, with record low rates on offer.
Although there's still no suggestion on the variable front that the RBA rates will hike rates for at least three years.
 
 
 
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Westpac's mortgage delinquencies jump due to COVID-19

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Ashcroft is NSW’s worst performing suburb, according to Moody’s latest report.
The area’s delinquency rate has increased to 3.69% compared to last year’s 2.15%.
This is an increase of 1.54%.
<a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/09/19/Screen%20Shot%202017-09-19%20at%2010.27.13%20am.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a>
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Ashcroft was followed by Belgravia at 3.24% and Carnes Hill with 2.37%.
Albury takes the last spot in the worst 10 performing suburb with a delinquency rate of 1.96%, an increase of 0.71%.
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Ashcroft NSW's most mortgage delinquent suburb

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Regions with exposure to the resource and mining sectors dominated the list of areas with the highest delinquencies in November 2017, according to Moody's.
Nine of the 10 regions with the highest 30-plus delinquency rates were in either Western Australia or Queensland, and many of these regions are exposed to employment industries directly or indirectly related to mining and resources.
Click here <a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2018/4/12/WORST%20REGION.jpg" target="_blank">to enlarge.</a>
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Six of the 10 worst regions — Western Australia Outback, Queensland Outback, Mackay, Western Australia Wheat Belt, Mandurah and Fitzroy — have consistently been among the worst performing regions in the country over the last three to four years.
Among these worst performing regions, Fitzroy recorded the biggest increase in delinquencies over the year to November 2017.
The weighted average current loan to value ratios for the worst performing regions were typically higher than the national average of 63.2%.
 
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Outback Western Australia and Queensland as highest delinquency locations: Moody's

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Six postcodes had zero mortgage delinquencies in November 2017, making them the best performing in the country.
Ten of the 20 best-performing postcodes in Australia were in Sydney, while six were in Melbourne.
Click here <a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2018/4/12/BEST%20POSTCODE.jpg" target="_blank">to enlarge.</a>
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Most best-performing postcodes were located in capital city regions where employment is concentrated in professional services.
The weighted average current loan to value ratios for the best performing regions were typically lower than the national average of 63.2%.
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Crows Nest, Mosman and Carlingford the best postcodes for mortgage payments: Moody's

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The CBA home loan arrears jumped in WA in the last six months of 2017, triggering the lender's overall bad loan book to the highest level in four years. 
Australia's largest mortgage lender reported home loans 90 or more days in arrears accounted for about 0.6% of its loan book.
The proportion of bad loans in WA rose to about 1.3%, well above Queensland, the next closest mining region in terms of arrears.
Click here <a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2018/2/8/arrears%20wa.jpg" target="_blank">to enlarge.</a>
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"Loan impairment expense was $356 million, an increase of 1% on the prior comparative period," CBA said.
"The result was mainly driven by increased home loan and personal loan collective provisions, which include the impact of slightly higher home loan arrears, predominantly in WA."
The figures show the continuing fallout of the WA housing market with the proportion of bad home loans having more than doubled over the past three years.
CBA reduced its exposure to the WA market over the six-month period.
Click here <a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2018/2/8/arrears.jpg" target="_blank">to enlarge.</a>
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The balance of home loans in the state fell 0.3% to account for 16% of the bank's total home loan book. 
Last August, Western Australia was noted as having <a href="https://www.urban.com.au/expert-insights/finance/74884-wa-home-loan-arrears-twice-of-national-rate-cba" target="_blank">the most problem home loans in Australia</a>.
The Perth property market ended 2017 on a positive note, with December quarter data showing improvements in median prices, sales activity, listing levels and average selling days, according to REIWA President Hayden Groves. 
“The Perth market found its floor and stabilised in the back half of 2017,” Mr Groves said. 
Perth’s preliminary median house price increased 1.2 per cent to $516,000 in the December quarter 2017. 
“Once all sales have settled, we expect the final December quarter median to lift to $520,000, which is a notable improvement on the September quarter median of $510,000. 
“On an annual basis, the Perth market is very stable. We’ve observed consistent price levels between the December 2016 and 2017 quarters which is a strong signifier the market has turned a corner,” Mr Groves said. 
Perth’s median unit price is $405,000 for the December 2017 quarter which is a 1.3 per cent increase on the September quarter. 
“It’s encouraging to see Perth’s house and unit medians increase over the quarter because it suggests one sector hasn’t recovered at the expense of the other,” Mr Groves said. 
There were 4,946 dwelling sales in Perth in the December quarter. 
Mr Groves said this figure was expected to lift to 6,700 once all sales had settled, putting it significantly above the September quarter sales figure.
“Traditionally, the September quarter outperforms the December quarter, but that wasn’t the case in 2017. The December quarter is on track to record 14 per cent more sales than the September quarter,” Mr Groves said. 
REIWA analysis shows the composition of sales shifted in the December quarter in Perth, with more transactions occurring above $700,000. 
“We’ve observed a surge of activity in Perth’s aspirational suburbs, with buyers recognising there is good opportunity to secure a home in these areas which might have previously been considered unattainable by many,” Mr Groves said. 
“This spike in sales above $700,000 has also contributed to Perth’s median house price increasing over the quarter.” 
There were 13,088 properties for sale in Perth at the end of the December quarter. 
Mr Groves said this was on par with the September quarter figure and six per cent less than the December 2016 quarter figure. 
“There were 800 fewer listings in Perth at the end of 2017 than there was in 2016 and some 1,300 less than there were at the same time 2015. We have consistently seen stock levels decline over the last two years as the market trends towards parity,” Mr Groves said. 
“Declining listing levels combined with notable improvements in sales activity has helped restore net-demand. With buyer activity increasing, stock levels are being absorbed faster,” Mr Groves said. 
It was 10 days faster to sell in the December quarter than it was in the September quarter, with it taking on average 60 days to secure a sale. 
“It’s been two years since it was this quick to sell in Perth. The combination of sellers’ preparedness to meet the market and buyer appetite for well-priced property has significantly shortened days-on-market,” Mr Groves said.
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CBA home loan mortgage delinquencies rise in WA

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Lalor Park, Prestons and Casula have been ranked the suburbs with the most distressed listings in New South Wales.
Lalor Park ranked as the nation's most distressed suburb, according to Investar.
It suggests Lalor Park's has discounted listings which accounts for 60 per cent of the total.
The postcode 2147's house listings are typically for sale for 106 days.
The suburb's median house sits at $680,000, with 6.33 per cent growth over the past year.
Its median rent sits at $430 per week, with 2.38 per cent increase over the past year.
The rental yield sits at 3.3 per cent.
The Preston postcode 2170's house listings are typically for sale for 122 days.
The suburb's median house price sits at $880,000, which has grown by 2.3 per cent over the past year.
Its median rent sits at $650 per week, with 4.8 per cent growth over the past year.
The rental yield sits at 3.8 per cent. 
The Casula postcode 2170's house listings are typically for sale for 175 days.
The suburb's median house price sits at $512,500, which has grown by 6.1 per cent over the past year.
Its median rent sits at $395 per week, with 1.3 per cent decrease over the past year.
The rental yield sits at 4 per cent. 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
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