Moody's Analytics

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Australian real estate investment trusts (A-REITS) have good gearing buffers to withstand the looming property value declines, according to a recent report from Moody's Investors Service.
The predicted downturn is due to weak demand and slowing economic activity caused by the coronavirus pandemic.  
The report found that property values would need to fall significantly for A-REITs to breach gearing and covenant thresholds.
“We expect retail property values to decline in the next 12-18 months because of weak demand and economic activity resulting from coronavirus related disruptions,” saidsenior analyst Saranga Ranasinghe.
“Office property values will fall to a lesser degree, and continued demand will support industrial property values.”
The report futher found that average property values would need to fall 34% to breach the top end of the rated REITs' target gearing (debt/asset) ranges and fall 55% to breach their covenant thresholds.
The REITs came into the downturn with balance-sheet buffers to withstand an increase in gearing. 
According to the report retail A-REITs will experience the largest declines in property values.
“In response to coronavirus disruptions, Vicinity Centres (VCX, A2 negative), Shopping Centres Australasia Property Group (SCP, Baa1 stable) and Charter Hall Retail REIT (CQR, Baa1 stable) raised equity to strengthen their balance sheets,” added Ranasinghe.
CQR's gearing will approach covenant thresholds if property values fall more than 25%. Without debt reduction, Scentre Group's (SCG, A2 negative) gearing will breach its rating tolerance levels if property values fall more than 27%.
But SCG's gearing will remain well within its covenant thresholds.
Diversified A-REITs with retail property are also exposed to devaluations; office value declines are likely to be moderate.
Despite exposure to retail, the risk to diversified A-REITs is mitigated by exposure to industrial as well as office properties.
Stockland Group (SGP, A3 stable) has the largest exposure to retail. SGP has significant buffers within its covenants, but it will approach its rating threshold if its retail property values decline more than 30%.
We expect office property values will decline only moderately over the next 12-18 months and do not see material risks to gearing levels of other diversified A-REITs.
Industrial property values supported by e-commerce penetration and increasing focus on supply chains.
Unlike retail and office, we expect industrial property values will be flat to up slightly over the next 12-18 months.
The pandemic has accelerated e-commerce penetration in Australia and increased focus on supply chains.
The report concluded that Goodman Group (GMG, Baa1 stable), Goodman Australia Industrial Partnership (GAIP, Baa1 stable), and Charter Hall Prime Industrial Fund (CPIF, Baa1 stable) will benefit most.
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Most Australian REITs can withstand property value declines: Moody’s Investors Service

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Housing affordability will deteriorate throughout 2020, according to a report from Moody's Investors Service.
Housing affordability for new mortgage borrowers - measured as the proportion of household income borrowers need to meet repayments on new mortgages – improved on average in Australia over the year to September 2019.
I noted that mortgage interest rate cuts and housing price declines were responsible. 
However, affordability has deteriorated since July 2019 because of a housing price rebound, particularly in Sydney and Melbourne. 
The study predicts that housing affordability will deteriorate over 2020 as housing prices continue to increase. 
The risk of delinquencies and defaults in new mortgages will increase as affordability deteriorates, a credit negative for Australian residential mortgage-backed securities, Moody's said.
On average, Australian households with two income earners needed 24.6% of their monthly income to meet monthly mortgage repayments on new loans in September 2019, down from 26.7% in September 2018 but up from 24.2% in July 2019. 
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2019/11/4/price%20graph.png" alt="">
Australian housing prices decreased an average 1.6% over the year to September 2019, while average household income increased 2.5% and average mortgage interest rates declined by 0.4 percentage point after the Reserve Bank of Australia lowered the official cash rate in June and July 2019. 
The RBA cut the cash rate further in October, which is positive for affordability, however the study predicts that this will be outweighed by rising housing prices over 2020. 
Housing prices increased 1.7% in the two months to September. 
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Moody's Investors Service predicts that housing affordability will deteriorate in 2020

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South Australia’s housing market remains relatively stable, in part because of the avoidance of excessive runup in values that occurred on the eastern seaboard, according to the latest data from Moody's Analytics.
It found house values in Greater Adelaide rose 1.9% in 2018, supported by strong growth in West and North Adelaide, whereas the increase in unit values was more moderate at 0.7%.
There is some expected divergence in South Australia house values. While house values are expected to fall by 0.5% in Greater Adelaide, they are expected to accelerate in regional South Australia and grow by 1.2% in 2019.
The growth in unit values in Greater Adelaide, however, is likely to remain steady and values are expected to rise by 0.7% in 2019, Moody's Analytics forecast.
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2019/10/28/SA%20Moodys.JPG" alt="">
Katrina Ell, Economist at Moody’s Analytics said: "In 2020, house values are predicted to rise by 1.4% in Greater Adelaide, supported by a strong pickup in house prices in North and South Adelaide.
"The weakness in house values in Central and West Adelaide, however, is likely to persist next year, with values projected to decline by 1.2% in both suburbs in 2020. In comparison, house values in regional South Australia are expected to record stronger growth of 2.7% in 2020, driven by a significant increase in home values in South Australia-Outback.
"In contrast, unit values in Greater Adelaide are expected to pick up modestly by 0.8% in 2020, because of weaker prices in West Adelaide, which are likely to fall further by 4.9% through 2020.
"House values are predicted to gain momentum in 2021 and increase by 5.1% and 3.9% in Greater Adelaide and regional South Australia, respectively.
"Unit values, however, are forecast to increase moderately by 1.1% in the Greater Adelaide region."
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Adelaide housing market to leap ahead of apartments in 2021: Moody's Analytics

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Sydney’s housing market has started to emerge from its correction, according to the latest data from Moody's Analytics.
They found, Sydney apartment values began expanding from June, while house values enjoyed gains from July and, in both cases, modest improvement is forecast to continue.
House values will fall an average of 8.4% in 2019, before a 7.7% expansion in 2020. This follows a 5.5% decline in 2018.
Moody’s Analytics identified previous episodes of corrections over the last three decades (see Chart 11). This shows that the recent correction has been the longest and steepest on record for the Sydney market.
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2019/10/28/NSW%20Moodys%202.JPG" alt="">
The most recent peak in house and unit values was around mid-2017.
Although unit values have corrected, it has not been to the same extent as houses.
Unit values are on track to fall by an average of 5.9% in 2019 after a 3.1% drop in 2018. An improvement of 7.9% is expected in 2020, followed by an improvement of 8.4% by 2021.
Click <a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2019/10/28/NSW%20Moodys.JPG" target="_blank">here</a> to enlarge.
<img src="https://www.urban.com.au/images/2019/10/28/NSW%20Moodys.JPG" alt="">
According to Moody's Analytics economist Katrina Ell, "house values in the City and Inner South area have passed their trough after a sharp decline through 2018."
"The Inner South West is on track to see a 12.9% fall in 2019, after a 5.3% fall in 2018. A 6% expansion is forecast for the Inner South West in 2020."
"The correction in Sydney is forecast to have largely passed by 2020, but home value growth will be far from the lofty gains of recent years. Housing values are forecast to rise by an average of 7.7% for houses and 7.9% for apartments."
"Areas outside metropolitan Sydney are mostly on track to escape the bulk of the correction."
"As potential homebuyers’ incomes have not kept pace with the Sydney housing market, demand has increased for areas outside of Sydney, where affordability is better."
"Areas including the Hunter Valley, excluding Newcastle, have become attractive destinations for those still tied to Sydney for employment but for whom purchasing property would stretch the household budget too far.
"These areas have adequate transport links back to Sydney for frequent commuting."
"House values in the Hunter Valley are forecast to fall by 2.1% in 2019 and rise by 3.6% in 2020, after increasing 6.6% in 2018."
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Sydney housing market emerging from correction: Moody's Analytics

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Brisbane apartment prices are expected to perform better than houses in the medium term, according to Moody's Analytics.
They forecast the Greater Brisbane area's apartment values to increase by 5.6% in 2020 after a 0.7% decline in 2019. 
Moody's said growth in Brisbane apartment market has been crimped by high supply in recent years.
Between 2013 and 2016 apartment approvals outnumbered housing approvals on an average three to one.
Recently approvals have been more aligned which is set to drive apartment prices. 
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2019/6/24/Brisbane%20Apartments%20Recovery%202.jpg" alt="">
The increase is forecast to be led by Ipswich and the Moreton Bay North areas which are expected to see prices increase over eight percent in 2020.
"Apartment prices are expected to perform better than house prices for Brisbane (and Greater Brisbane) in the medium term", Moody's advised.
"We forecast home values to underperform throughout the forecast period, while apartment values are expected to reach a trough in 2018-2019 followed by a pronounced recovery in 2020 
Moody's 2021 forecast for Brisbane apartments is similar to how they expect it to perform in 2020, however there are areas of concern in the inner city areas.
Ipswich and the Moreton Bay regions will remain strong, however Moody's believe there will be declines up to 5.4% for apartments in the inner city. 
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2019/6/24/Brisbane%20Apartments%20recovery.jpg" alt="">
 
 
 
 
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Brisbane’s apartment market forecast to rise 5.6% in 2020: Moody's Analytics

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The national housing market is forecast to trough in the third quarter of 2019, according to Moody's Analytics Second-Quarter 2019 Housing Forecast Report.
A gradual recovery in values has been predicted following the end of the downturn.
The May CoreLogic Hedonic Home Value Index results show the national housing market continuing its correction, led by Sydney and Melbourne.
House values across the country have declined almost 11% from their peak in mid-2017.
Moody's Analytics expect Sydney's housing market to lead the way in the recovery in 2020.
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2019/6/24/Moodys%20Housing%20Correction%20Forecast.jpg" alt="">
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"The correction in Sydney is forecast to have largely passed by 2020, but home value growth will be far from the lofty gains of recent years," Moody's noted.
"Housing values are forecast to rise modestly in 2020, with an average increase of 3.1% forecast for houses and 4% for apartments."
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Moody's have predicted a 7.8% national housing value decline in 2019, with prices to recover in 2020, rising 2.2%. They see a 4.7% increase across the country in 2021. 
<img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2019/6/24/Moodys%20Housing%20Forecast.jpg" alt="">
"Support for the improvement is coming from the RBA cutting the cash rate, alongside expected improvement in credit availability from APRA proposing to ease serviceability requirements," Moody's said.
"A gradual improvement will be the path going forward, with softer macroeconomic conditions at home, including expectations of wage growth remaining subdued working to dampen a stronger recovery."
Moody's forecast improvement in Melbourne's housing market too in 2020, with the inner east and north east leading the recovery.
The housing market around the Brisbane area is likely to see either flat or mildly positive returns in the coming years.
There will be areas with a correction in 2019 according to Moody's with a particular weakness in South Brisbane.
Perth is expected to be hit hard over 2019, with house values likely to decline nearly seven percent. Moody's believe there will be a small recovery in 2020 as the local economy improves thanks to population growth.
Adelaide’s housing market will continue its stable run, with house values forecast to rise 0.4% in 2019 after a 1.9% gain in 2018.
Moody's suggest Hobart's booming housing market bull run is likely at the end. House values are forecast to rise 2.8% in 2019, followed by modest corrections in 2020 and 2021. 
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