Median Price

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Property 101: Victorian residential property valuations issued

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<p class="first-para">GUEST OBSERVER</p>
<p>The median house in Sydney surpassed the million dollar mark in July and is now valued at $1,017,500. In the quarter ending July, the Sydney median house value grew an astonishing 7.58%. The average quarterly growth rate of all other capital city house markets was just 0.92%.</p>
<p><a href="/images/2015/08/31/Graph_1_Capital_Growth_Summary.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></p>
<p><img src="/images/2015/08/31/Graph_1_Capital_Growth_Summary.jpg" alt="" width="723" height="464"></p>
<p>The annual rate of growth for Melbourne houses was 9.07 per cent, bringing the median house value to $683,000. Growth for the month was significantly lower, at just 0.13 per cent. </p>
<p>Brisbane houses performed steadily in the year to July, however performance was down in the unit market due to an overhang of stock. Commencement of the Queens Wharf development in the heart of the Brisbane CBD (a complex which will include 2,000 new apartments) is likely to place further downward pressure on the growth of Brisbane units. </p>
<p>The worst performing areas in the year to July were once again the resource states. Perth houses contracted 4.34 per cent while Darwin unit values dropped 6.41 per cent. </p>
<p>Table 1 presents the market performance summary for July.</p>
<p><a href="/images/2015/08/31/Table_1_July_Stats_Summary2.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></p>
<p><img src="/images/2015/08/31/Table_1_July_Stats_Summary2.jpg" alt="" width="818" height="716"></p>
<p><span><strong>A Note on the Resource Markets</strong></span></p>
<p>A number of commodity prices have tumbled in the last year. The iron ore price averaged just AUD $69 per dry metric tonne over the month of July, which is a 13.88 per cent reduction from the previous month. </p>
<p>Australian Thermal Coal remained steady over the last month, averaging AUD $85.75 per pound. However, this is a significant reduction from the peak price in 2008 when coal averaged over AUD $200. </p>
<p>World Bank data shows that resources boomed in the early 2000’s, following a long period of low valuation between the 1970’s and the 1990’s. While it appears that commodities are in a correction period, values have not fallen so drastically that prices are below what they were a decade ago. </p>
<p>In response to the decline in commodity prices, many suppliers, including BHP Billiton and Rio Tinto, chose to increase efficiency and cost cutting as opposed to reducing supply. This is likely due to larger producers taking advantage of the fall in commodity values to pressure smaller suppliers out of the market. </p>
<p>In line with cost cutting, thousands of mining positions have been terminated across South Australia, the Northern Territory and Western Australia. This, coupled with the completion of mining construction projects, is exacerbating economic downturn in the resource states.</p>
<p>Deterioration may be slightly offset in the short term due to the devaluation of the Yuan, which will make Chinese steel exports more competitive and drive demand for Australian Iron Ore, an input in steel production.</p>
<p>Commodity prices have a strong lead lag effect on dwelling values in the resource state capitals. As commodity prices stabilise at significantly lower levels, the Darwin and Perth dwelling markets are also stabilising.</p>
<p>To put the current growth cycle in perspective, I have provided the historical House Price Index (HPI)<a href="https://blog.residex.com.au/2015/08/28/property-market-update-3/#footnote-1"><span>[1]</span></a>data for Darwin and Perth in Graphs 2 and 3.</p>
<p><a href="/images/2015/08/31/Graph_2_Perth_HPI.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></p>
<p><img src="/images/2015/08/31/Graph_2_Perth_HPI.jpg" alt="" width="816" height="523"></p>
<p> </p>
<p><a href="/images/2015/08/31/Graph_3_Darwin_HPI.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></p>
<p><img src="/images/2015/08/31/Graph_3_Darwin_HPI.jpg" alt=""></p>
<p> </p>
<p>The graphs show that, like commodity values, dwellings in the resource capitals are no longer in a stage of rapid growth as they were between 2000 and 2008. </p>
<p>The Perth and Darwin markets are currently in a correction period, which is indicated by the downward movement of the HPI. However, putting the dwelling positions into a larger historical context shows they have not drastically collapsed. </p>
<p>During the mining boom, the Perth market saw annualised growth rates as high as 40 per cent in 2006. However, these growth rates were met with corrections as large as 10 per cent in 2009. The end of the mining boom has restored growth cycles that are much more subdued than these levels. </p>
<p><span><strong>The New Normal – Ownership and Lifestyle in the Age of Population Convergence</strong></span></p>
<p>Growth in the Sydney and Melbourne markets have concerned lending institution regulators, and hopeful investors and homeowners.</p>
<p>As discussed in previous newsletters, there is little evidence attributing foreign investment and tax structures to the surge in property values. I have not found sufficient data to argue rigorously that these forces are driving up prices. </p>
<p>There is another force that I believe may be attributed to house and unit value increases – particularly in Sydney: the concept of population convergence. </p>
<p>In 2005, American urban studies theorist Richard Florida built a case for population convergence. Measuring economic production, levels of innovation and population, Florida found that population and economic activity were converging to a few large cities around the world. </p>
<p>Evidence suggests that Sydney could be one of these cities. This would account for the positive returns on Sydney property over the last three years, which according to Residex data has averaged a rapid 3.05 per cent per quarter. </p>
<p>At the time of Florida’s study in 2005, Sydney was one of just 60 cities around the world that had a population of approximately five million or more. Using World Intellectual Property Organization and U.S. Patent and Trademark data, Florida also found that Sydney was one of just 20 cities around the world to be fostering significant levels of innovation. </p>
<p>Population density in Sydney has increased approximately 16 per cent between 2000 and 2012, according to data from Charting Transport. Increased density and the presence of more investors in the property market has led to an increase in the supply of units over houses. From September 2012, unit commencements have regularly outperformed housing builds, which can be seen in Graph 4. This further implies that most development is occurring in urban, densely populated areas.</p>
<p><strong>Graph 4: Sydney Dwelling Commencements</strong></p>
<p><a href="/images/2015/08/31/Graph_4_Dwelling_Commencements_Sydney.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></p>
<p><img src="/images/2015/08/31/Graph_4_Dwelling_Commencements_Sydney.jpg" alt="" width="752" height="479"></p>
<p>Population convergence theory could explain the growth in the house and unit markets, and signal that such growth is likely to continue. This is not unprecedented. Values and rents have skyrocketed in cities around the world, including Singapore, New York, London and Tokyo over the last few decades.</p>
<p>High rates of property growth are not just reflected in a desire to be near amenities, culture and cosmopolitan environments. Density also brings productivity advantages through economies of scale. It increases connectivity and knowledge sharing. In turn, these things create more jobs and attract a higher population, reinforcing population convergence.</p>
<p>In response to higher density living, many people have begun to adjust their standards of living in Sydney. However, a level of development resistance could further increase prices, such as a court ruling earlier this year which will see the minimum approval unit size in Sydney increase by 30 per cent<a href="https://blog.residex.com.au/2015/08/28/property-market-update-3/#footnote-2"><span>[2]</span></a>.</p>
<p>The methods inhibiting development are wide and diverse and therefore difficult to fully quantify; the prevention of new development can come from environmental regulation and community resistance.</p>
<p>These forces prohibit development of popular space and undermine innovations used to adapt to higher density, such as the micro-apartment movement. Resistance to development can also preserve a higher standard of living in Sydney, which – for those who can afford it – is clearly in demand. </p>
<p>Assuming Florida was right in his theory of population convergence, Sydney could see strong house value increases over the next few quarters before stabilising at a level that even the most wealthy and mobile will find excessive. </p>
<p><em>Eliza Owen is market analyst for Onthehouse.com.au and can be contacted <a href="https://investors.onthehouse.com.au/" target="_blank">here</a>.</em><a href="https://investors.onthehouse.com.au/"><br></a></p>
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Sydney house median passes $1 million mark: Onthehouse's Eliza Owen

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<p>Residential listings fell 0.8 percent over March from February according to SQM Research, who found Hobart and Melbourne recording considerable yearly falls.</p>
<p>Canberra recorded the largest monthly fall in stock levels, down 6.1 percent during March 2016.</p>
<p><a href="/images/2016/04/8/10926875-e60c-44d3-8a3a-5e62e8ba69ad.png" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></p>
<p><img src="/images/2016/04/8/10926875-e60c-44d3-8a3a-5e62e8ba69ad.png" alt=""></p>
<p>SQM managing director Louis Christopher said r<span style="line-height: 1.3em;">eal estate listings were very steady over the course of March, with the decline in Canberra noted.</span></p>
<p><span style="line-height: 1.3em;">"Canberra's decline is yet more evidence the market there has now turned the corner.," he said.</span></p>
<p><span style="line-height: 1.3em;">"We also note the ongoing decline in listings in Hobart, which is also reflective of a recovery in the nation’s south. We also note that Hobart recorded rises in asking prices for the month.</span></p>
<p><span style="line-height: 1.3em;">"Over the past month, the capital city average for asking prices has increased 6.2 </span>percent<span style="line-height: 1.3em;"> for houses, and 5.7 percent for units, with year-on- year results revealing Sydney median asking prices have risen 8.0 percent for houses and 9.4 percent for units compared to this time last year. Melbourne also experienced yearly changes with median asking prices for houses climbing 12.4 percent for houses, and 4.0 percent for units."</span></p>
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Hobart and Melbourne continue to record yearly falls: SQM

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<p>Median prices and price indexes are very blunt instruments for measuring real estate markets.</p>
<p>When it comes to charting what’s happening in property markets, price data is a long way behind the game and prone to all kinds of statistical absurdities.</p>
<p>Price statistics are part of a chain reaction which means most investors get into markets too late to buy well. After something fundamental changes in a market, causing activity to start rising, it can be six months before it starts to be reflected in prices and even longer before it comes to attention of consumers via the media.</p>
<p>If you’re reading there’s a price boom somewhere, you’ve already missed the best time to purchase by at least 12 months. But that’s the signal that sparks most investors into action.</p>
<p>Fortunately, there’s a better way.</p>
<p>It’s one of clear patterns of real estate that changes in sales activity translates into price reactions, all other things being equal. It’s sounds simplistic but it’s not - it’s merely simple. There’s a correlation between sales volumes and prices rises/falls. But the change in activity comes first and the price reaction follows later.</p>
<p>So there are plenty of lessons to be seen in what’s happening to sales activity in major markets around the country.</p>
<p>Our latest edition of The Price Predictor Index shows quite starkly how much the Sydney and Melbourne markets have declined in terms of activity. </p>
<p>Boom markets seldom extend beyond three years and Sydney’s cycle has inevitably passed its peak and turned south. The vast Sydney metropolitan area, with over 700 suburbs, is bereft of suburbs with forward momentum. Many suburbs now display patterns of sharply declining sales levels – and many of those areas are now experiencing price stagnation or decline.</p>
<p>Melbourne has followed Sydney into the post-boom phase of the property cycle. There has been a marked downturn in the number of growth suburbs in the Greater Melbourne area, down from 105 in our previous quarterly survey to 28. Most of the ranked suburbs now have <em>Plateau</em> markets (sales tapering off at levels below their peak).</p>
<p>While Melbourne generally is fading, one region that continues to pump is the Mornington Peninsula LGA. Bayside suburbs at opposite ends of the price spectrum - Rosebud West (median house price $425,000) and Sorrento ($900,000), and several others in between - have markets where sales activity is rising steadily.</p>
<p>Meanwhile, the City of Greater Geelong is the No.1 market in Victoria. It has plenty of upwardly-mobile suburbs, more than any other LGA in the state and fourth best in the nation (behind three municipalities in South-East Queensland). A standout feature is the growing sales activity in cheaper suburbs such as Norlane, Corio, Belmont and Clifton Springs. This doesn’t surprise, as Geelong thrives on being an affordable alternative to Melbourne.</p>
<p>Torquay on the Surf Coast south of Geelong and the towns of the Bass Coast LGA - including Inverloch, Wonthaggi and Cowes – are also travelling well.</p>
<p>Meanwhile, and this will surprise many people, Adelaide ranks as the leading capital city market now. It has more suburbs with rising sales activity (47) than all other cities. Brisbane is the only serious challenger, with 41 growth suburbs. </p>
<p>Adelaide’s No.1 municipality is the Port Adelaide Enfield LGA. This is one of the largest municipalities in Adelaide, covering the inner north and north-west of the city. Eight suburbs in this LGA have forward momentum, mostly suburbs with median house prices in the range from $380,000 to $510,000. They include Broadview, Northgate, Windsor Gardens and Largs Bay. </p>
<p>Also chugging along nicely is the City of Charles Sturt, one of those solid middle-market areas that have strong property markets amid the steady rise of Adelaide.</p>
<p>The Charles Sturt LGA includes bayside suburbs west of the Adelaide CBD, including rising markets such as Henley Beach (median house price $690,000) and Henley Beach South ($830,000), as well as some more affordable locations such as Findon ($475,000), Kidman Park ($555,000), Semaphore Park ($480,000) and Seaton ($455,000).</p>
<p>Brisbane and South-East Queensland still have good activity happening. The Gold Coast remains the No.1 municipality in the nation in terms of the number of suburbs with growing sales activitity and the No.2 and No.2 LGAs in that regard are found in the Brisbane metropolitan area. </p>
<p>The Greater Brisbane area has a smaller number of growth markets than three months ago, but remains considerably stronger than Sydney and Melbourne. Its leading precincts are two fringe areas on the periphery of the metropolitan area – the Moreton Bay Region in the far north and Logan City in the far south. This suggests the Brisbane cycle is at or close to its peak. But, for now, it remains one of the strongest cities.</p>
<p>The other standout city is Hobart. The last time Hobart captured the national imagination for property investment was in 2003/2004. Most the intervening period has been characterised by economic and population stagnation and an enduring status as the basket case of the national economy.</p>
<p>But all that has changed. Tasmania is a contender again and this has translated into rising performance in the Hobart property market. Sales numbers are up, prices and rents are responding, and investors are starting to take action.</p>
<p>It helps that Hobart has the lowest prices, high rental yields and lowest vacancies among the eight capital cities.</p>
<p> </p>
<p class="Body"><em>Terry Ryder is the founder of <a href="https://www.hotspotting.com.au/" target="_blank">hotspotting.com.au</a>. You can <a href="https://mailto:ryder@hotspotting.com.au" target="_blank">email him</a> or follow him on <a href="https://twitter.com/hotspotting" target="_blank">Twitter.</a></em></p>
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The correlation between property sales volumes and prices rises: Terry Ryder

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<p>At the end of 2016, 7.6 percent of suburbs nationally had a median house value under $200,000 and 5.9 percent of suburbs had a median unit value below $200,000.</p>
<p>To put these figures into some perspective, 11.4 percent of suburbs had a median house value of at least $1 million and 3.0 percent of suburbs had a median unit value of at least $1 million.</p>
<p>Mr Kusher found that over the five years to the end of 2016, a substantial decline occurred in the proportion of suburbs with a median value below $400,000.</p>
<p>As a comparison, at the end of 2011, 53.5 percent of suburbs had a median house value of less than $400,000 and 69.8 percent of suburbs had a median unit value of less than $400,000. By the end of 2016, the proportion of suburbs with a median value of less than $400,000 fell to 41.0 percent for houses, and 55.3 percent for units.</p>
<p><a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/02/16/Screen%20Shot%202017-02-16%20at%2011.20.39%20am.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></p>
<p><img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2017/02/16/Screen%20Shot%202017-02-16%20at%2011.20.39%20am.jpg" alt=""> </p>
<p>Looking back at the individual capital cities over the past five years highlights a significant shift in the proportion of suburbs with a median value under $400,000, particularly in Sydney and Melbourne.</p>
<p>Today’s analysis revealed that five years ago, with the exception of Darwin and Canberra, every capital city had at least 20 percent of its suburbs with a median house value of less than $400,000.</p>
<p>At the end of last year, it was virtually impossible to find houses for less than $400,000 in Sydney, Darwin and Canberra while less than 7% of suburbs had a median house value below $400,000 in Melbourne.</p>
<p><a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/02/16/Screen%20Shot%202017-02-16%20at%2011.20.46%20am.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></p>
<p><img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2017/02/16/Screen%20Shot%202017-02-16%20at%2011.20.46%20am.jpg" alt=""></p>
<p>We noted that across each city there has been a substantial decline in affordable housing over the past year despite the fact that outside of Sydney and Melbourne there has been only moderate value growth over the period.</p>
<p>Even units recorded a fairly substantial decline in the proportion of suburbs with a median value of less than $400,000 over the past five years.</p>
<p><a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/02/16/Screen%20Shot%202017-02-16%20at%2011.20.54%20am.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></p>
<p><img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2017/02/16/Screen%20Shot%202017-02-16%20at%2011.20.54%20am.jpg" alt=""></p>
<p>For those earning a relatively low income in Sydney and looking to buy a house or unit, they are competing for a rapidly declining pool of housing stock across the city.</p>
<p>The pool is also declining across the remaining capitals, albeit not at the same pace of decline as in Sydney.</p>
<p>Key Findings:</p>
<p>• At the end of 2016, looking at both houses and units, 20.5 percent of Sydney suburbs had a median value of less than $600,000 compared to 38.5 percent of suburbs having a median value of at least $1 million. To further highlight deteriorating housing affordability in Sydney, 34.6 percent of suburbs had a median unit value of less than $600,000 at the end of 2016. In each other capital city, a higher proportion of suburbs had a median house value of less than $600,000 than the proportion of suburbs with a median unit value of less than $600,000.</p>
<p>• In 2011, the proportion of total suburbs with a median house value below $400,000 across each capital city was: 21.2 percent in Sydney, 28.9 percent in Melbourne, 40.9 percent in Brisbane, 40.5 percent in Adelaide, 31.1 percent in Perth, 69.2 percent in Hobart, 2.1 percent in Darwin and 1.1 percent in Canberra.</p>
<p>• Units offered a more affordable option highlighted by the proportions of suburbs values below $400,000 at: 38.8 percent in Sydney, 48.2 percent in Melbourne, 81.7 percent in Brisbane, 94.3 percent in Adelaide, 59.8 percent in Perth, 92.7 percent in Hobart, 53.3 percent in Darwin and 44.6 percent in Canberra.</p>
<p>• The proportion of suburbs with a median house value of less than $400,000 at the end of 2016 was recorded at: 0.1 percent in Sydney, 6.3 percent in Melbourne, 29.2 percent in Brisbane, 28.0 percent in Adelaide, 18.9 percent in Perth, 52.1 percent in Hobart and 0.0 percent in Darwin and Canberra. For units the proportions were recorded at: 6.5 percent in Sydney, 31.8 percent in Melbourne, 62.7 percent in Brisbane, 85.1 percent in Adelaide, 46.4 percent in Perth, 88.4 percent in Hobart, 57.6 percent in Darwin and 45.8 percent in Canberra.</p>
<p><a href="https://www.propertyobserver.com.au/images/2017/02/16/Screen%20Shot%202017-02-16%20at%2011.21.01%20am.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></p>
<p><img src="https://res.cloudinary.com/dz9xllyip/image/fetch/c_scale,w_580,q_auto:good/https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/po.images/2017/02/16/Screen%20Shot%202017-02-16%20at%2011.21.01%20am.jpg" alt=""></p>
<p class="p1"><span class="s1"><em>Cameron Kusher is research analyst for CoreLogic. You can contact him </em><a href="https://blog.corelogic.com.au/about/"><span class="s2"><em>here</em></span></a><em>.</em></span></p>
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The heightened decline in suburbs under the $400,000 median: Cameron Kusher

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<p>Darling Point had a great year. Its 12 sales triggered a $5.6 million best median price place on CoreLogic top list of 2017.</p>
<p>Dawes Point topped the apartments list.</p>
<p>Point Piper was excluded from calculations as it did not see the sale of 10 or more houses, but it did rank third with apartments.</p>
<p>Darling Point house sales included a four bedroom at <a href="https://www.realestate.com.au/sold/property-house-nsw-darling+point-124922942" target="_blank">14 Thornton Street</a> that fetched $7.06 million.</p>
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<p><span>Houses                        Sales Volume Medium Value                                         </span></p>
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</div>
</div>
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<p>NSW Darling Point Woollahra 12 $5,682,520        </p>
<p>NSW Vaucluse Woollahra 86 $5,471,853               </p>
<p>NSW Bellevue Hill Woollahra 68 $5,316,587             </p>
<p>Vic Toorak Stonnington 124 $4,761,631                   </p>
<p>NSW Longueville Lane Cove 37 $4,259,644             </p>
<p>NSW Tamarama Waverley 14 $4,254,666                 </p>
<p>NSW Dover Heights Waverley 36 $4,133,440           </p>
<p>NSW Mosman Mosman 259 $4,041,599                    </p>
<p>NSW Double Bay Woollahra 12 $3,994,114               </p>
<p>NSW Mcmahons Point North Sydney 20 $3,980,169  </p>
<p>Units </p>
<p>NSW Dawes Point Sydney 13 $3,176,621</p>
<p>NSW Barangaroo Sydney 12 $3,119,329</p>
<p>NSW Point Piper Woollahra 25 $2,989,216</p>
<p>NSW Darling Point Woollahra 85 $2,292,686</p>
<p>NSW The Rocks Sydney 30 $2,025,499</p>
<p>NSW Millers Point Sydney 41 $1,810,199</p>
<p>NSW Cabarita Canada Bay 15 $1,766,719</p>
<p>NSW Seaforth Manly 18 $1,672,213</p>
<p>NSW Palm Beach Pittwater 11 $1,626,911</p>
<p>NSW Milsons Point North Sydney 42 $1,620,837</p>
<p> </p>
<p> </p>
<p> </p>
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Darling Point had highest median value in CoreLogic's best list in 2017

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<div>Sydney median house prices were up by 1% in October to be up by 21% over the year to $1,058,500.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Sydney median unit prices were also up by 1% in the month to be up by 15% over the eyar to $684,500.</div>
<div> </div>
<div>There has also been moderate growth over the past year for Brisbane houses (4%) and units (3%).</div>
<div> </div>
<div>Interestingly Melbourne has now picked upp the pace, with house prices in the Victorian capital recording growth of 7% in the last quarter alone to be 11% higher over the year. </div>
<div> </div>
<div>On the other hand, some moderate declines were recorded in other cities and regions. </div>
<div> </div>
<div><a href="/images/2015/12/1/Table_1_October_Statistics_Summary.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></div>
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<div><img src="/images/2015/12/1/Table_1_October_Statistics_Summary.jpg" alt="" width="781" height="579"></div>
<div> </div>
<div><span>In other news, there was a very strong result recorded for the Reserve Bank's Financial Aggregates.</span></div>
<div><span> </span></div>
<div>
<p><span><em>PETE WARGENT is the co-founder of <a href="https://allenwargent.com/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">AllenWargent</a> property buyers (London, Sydney) and a best-selling author and <a href="https://petewargent.blogspot.com/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">blogger</a>.</em><br></span></p>
<p><em>His latest book is <a href="https://www.bigskypublishing.com.au/Books/General-Interest/Four-Green-Houses--and-a-Red-Hotel/1015/productview.aspx" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">Four Green Houses and a Red Hotel</a>.</em></p>
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Residex market update: Pete Wargent

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<p><span>A median price is a commonly used measure of pricing in the housing market. It represents the </span><span>‘middle’ </span><span>sale price in a list of transactions arranged in ascending (or descending) order. </span></p>
<p><span>For example, if there were eleven house sales across a suburb, the median would be the sixth most expensive sale which means that there would be an equal number of more expensive and more affordable properties. </span></p>
<p><span>It is valuable to look at other measures such as quartiles from time-to-time as this methodology provides a reflection of the more affordable and more expensive segments of the housing market in a region. If a region had 21 sales over a period the lower quartile would be the 6th cheapest sale and the upper quartile would be the 6th most expensive sale. </span></p>
<p><span>The </span><span>difference across the lower and upper quartiles provides us with more than just a view of range in prices; quartile measures also provide an indication of the diversity of housing stock in a region. A good example of this is the high profile suburb of Point Piper in Sydney which has significantly diverse housing stock due to its harbourside location. The lower quartile price is still hefty at $4,720,000 however, the upper quartile comes in at $30,000,000; more than six times the lower quartile price. </span></p>
<p><span>For </span><span>this analysis we are highlighting the capital city suburbs with the least difference between the bottom and top quartile; or the least amount of diversity in housing </span><span>stock.</span></p>
<p><span>For houses, Strathmore Heights in Melbourne has shown the smallest difference at just 5.6% based on sales over the past year. Across the unit market the suburb with the smallest differential between the lower and upper quartile was Albany Creek in Brisbane at just 1.3%. </span></p>
<p><span>Of surprise is the fact that very few of the suburbs listed for either houses or units are relatively new development areas. </span><span>In </span><span>fact across both product types the areas can generally be classified as established suburbs with relatively few new homes over recent years. This would tend to indicate that at the time of development many of the homes built were fairly similar and since that time relatively little in the way of renovation may have taken place.</span><span><br></span></p>
<p><span>The </span><span>results suggest that these suburbs have very little difference between precincts within the suburb. What this means is there are no areas particularly more or less desirable within these suburbs and this is reflected by the fact there is relatively little price variation throughout the </span><span>suburb</span><span>. </span></p>
<p><span>While using a median price as a measure is common across the property industry, by looking at quartiles it enables us to provide greater insights into the dynamics of a particular market. </span><span>These </span><span>insights simply </span><span>aren’t </span><span>available when medians are the </span><span>focus</span><span>. </span></p>
<p><span>The </span><span>results also reiterate that the median represents the typical housing cost but above and below that figure there can be significant variation in quality and cost or there can be very little </span><span>difference</span><span>. </span></p>
<p><a href="/images/2015/07/30/Screen%20Shot%202015-07-30%20at%201.17.20%20PM.png" target="_blank"><span>Click to enlarge</span></a></p>
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<p><em>Tim Lawless is head of the CoreLogic RP Data research and analytics team and can be contacted <a href="https://blog.corelogic.com.au/author/timlawless/" target="_blank">here</a>.</em></p>
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tlawless-5VLUrbAk9s

Suburbs with the least diversity in housing stock: CoreLogic RP Data's Tim Lawless

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<span style="line-height: 1.3em;">I noted</span><span style="line-height: 1.3em;"> recently that it pays to be wary when studies invariably reveal that the "strongest" property price growth over a carefully specified time period proves to be in a random suburb located somewhere to the west of White Cliffs which you've almost inevitably never heard of.</span>
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<div class="separator">Most likely the sample size for the data series is inappropriately miniscule, and the movements in median price are thus inclined to lurch around accordingly.</div>
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<div class="separator">There was recently some debate, for example, as to whether property prices have actually been soaring even in regional New South Wales towns where the population has been in decline.</div>
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<div>Sure, low interest rates have sparked a boom in Sydney property prices...but out in the sticks and even where the population is declining? <span>I don't believe so - that wouldn't make any sense at all! </span>
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<div class="separator"><strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">Regional median prices</span></strong></div>
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<div>Check out in the two charts below the median price data for Lightning Ridge and Walgett which were two of the quoted suburbs where the median prices have apparently boomed by more than +75 per cent over the past decade despite being home to reportedly declining populations.  </div>
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<div>As you can see there are so few sales in any given month - indeed, there are zero transactions in many instances - that even the smoothed 6mMA average median prices can comfortably more than double (or halve) in the matter of only a few months.<br><br>The median price data is to all intents and purposes meaningless.</div>
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<div><a href="/images/2015/10/06/1%20-%20Lightning%20Ridge%20MEdian%20Prices.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></div>
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<strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">Like-for-like sales</span></strong><br><br>If you want to work out what is really happening to house prices in a suburb, you ideally need to look at resales of the same properties.</div>
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<div>And even then you need to find like-for-like sales or else improvements can skew the data viciously higher. </div>
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<div>Take the below 1,000sqm block in Lightning Ridge which according to my sales history database appears at first blush to have increased in value to by an outlandish 1,400 per cent since 2003! </div>
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<div>Until, that is, you realise that the owner has recently developed the block with two brand new homes - a 4 bedroom house and a 2 bedroom home - with a combined rental of $550/week.<br><br>This is fairly typical of price action which skews the median price data upwards, but it is clearly manufactured rather than endogenous growth.</div>
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<div><a href="/images/2015/10/06/Screen%20Shot%202015-10-06%20at%209.47.04%20AM.png" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></div>
<div><img src="/images/2015/10/06/Screen%20Shot%202015-10-06%20at%209.47.04%20AM.png" alt="" width="861" height="655"></div>
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<div><span>If you look at genuinely like-for-like sales in Lightning Ridge, however, such as the below recent sale on a 1,110sqm block, you'll find that capital growth over the past quarter of a century or so has been much closer to zero per cent. </span></div>
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<div><a href="/images/2015/10/06/Screen%20Shot%202015-10-06%20at%209.48.32%20AM.png" target="_blank"><span>Click to enlarge</span></a></div>
<div><span><img src="/images/2015/10/06/Screen%20Shot%202015-10-06%20at%209.48.32%20AM.png" alt="" width="786" height="571"></span></div>
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<div><span>And it's a similar story in nearby Walgett, with the below house having achieved capital 'growth' over the past 25 years of negative $1,000.</span></div>
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<div><a href="/images/2015/10/06/Screen%20Shot%202015-10-06%20at%209.50.55%20AM.png" target="_blank"><span>Click to enlarge</span></a></div>
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<div>As for booming prices in Hay, which was another suburb quoted as having boomed by more than +70 per cent despite a declining population, there also appears to be very little exciting to see here when you look at like-for-like resales over time, with total capital growth since 2006 on this example property of only $1,000.</div>
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<div>Click to enlarge</div>
<div><img src="/images/2015/10/06/Screen%20Shot%202015-10-06%20at%209.52.21%20AM.png" alt="" width="773" height="516"></div>
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<div class="separator">Yet anothern NSW suburb which is quoted as having soared in value by more than +70 per cent despite its declining population was Brewarinna. </div>
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<div class="separator">Over the past year the suburb has recorded median price growth of precisely +25.00 per cent - with the median price having increased to exactly $100,000 - apparently impressive numbers, even if they do appear to be suspiciously round in nature.</div>
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<div class="separator">It's only when you realise that the entire data series is based on the grand total of eleven home sales that you realise how meaningless the median price data really can be.  </div>
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<div class="separator"><strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">The wrap</span></strong></div>
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<div class="separator">Now don't get me wrong, I am very much on board with the argument that easy credit flows can be and is one of the primary drivers of dwelling prices.</div>
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<div class="separator">Indeed, it is the very fact that today folk can borrow money at a 4 per cent cost of capital instead of double digit mortgage rates which is perhaps <em><strong>the</strong> </em>most significant factor in rising dwelling prices. </div>
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<div class="separator">What I am saying, however, is that median dwelling prices in regional towns should be treated with a great deal of caution, if not dispensed with altogether.</div>
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<div class="separator">As a penultimate point, I would also question whether a Sydney suburb where the population has ticked down by -0.2 per cent really has a "declining" population, when this is more likely to be simply a shift in the composition of households.</div>
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<div class="separator"><a href="/images/2015/10/06/Screen%20Shot%202015-10-06%20at%209.53.53%20AM.png" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></div>
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<div class="separator">Indeed, it is the very <a href="https://petewargent.blogspot.co.uk/2015/03/population-growth-and-property-price" target="_blank">l</a>ack of population growth in some landlocked suburbs - reflective of the fact that they are fully built out - which makes them more appealing for investment purposes. </div>
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<div class="separator">On a related note, you'd have a tough time convincing the residents of, say, Orange, Dubbo, Lismore or Parkes of their supposedly declining populations, whatever the suburb level or LGA stats may say...but that's a debate for another day! </div>
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<p><span><em>PETE WARGENT is the co-founder of <a href="https://allenwargent.com/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">AllenWargent</a> property buyers (London, Sydney) and a best-selling author and <a href="https://petewargent.blogspot.com/" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">blogger</a>.</em><br></span></p>
<p><em>His latest book is <a href="https://www.bigskypublishing.com.au/Books/General-Interest/Four-Green-Houses--and-a-Red-Hotel/1015/productview.aspx" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">Four Green Houses and a Red Hotel</a>.</em></p>
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Rubbery suburb median prices: Pete Wargent

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<p>With home values rising across most capital cities, the proportion of home sales below $400,000 continues to trend lower making it harder for price-sensitive buyers to purchase into capital city markets.</p>
<p>Over the 12 months to July 2015, combined capital city home values have increased by 11.1%. Most capital cities also have median prices which are now above $400,000 resulting in fewer more affordable properties available for sale.</p>
<p>37.4% of all home sales nationally were at less than $400,000 compared to 52.0% between $400,000 and $1 million and 10.6% over $1 million over the 12 months to June 2015. Sales below $400,000 were at a record low over the past year and sales above $1 million were at a record high. Focusing just on capital cities, 25.1% of home sales were under $400,000, 60.1% were between $400,000 and $1 million and 14.8% were in excess of $1 million.</p>
<p><a href="/images/2015/08/31/2015-08-30--01--annual-capital-city-home-sales-price-point-over-time.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></p>
<p><img src="/images/2015/08/31/2015-08-30--01--annual-capital-city-home-sales-price-point-over-time.jpg" alt=""></p>
<p><span>Ten years ago, the proportion of sales under $400,000 had fallen sharply relative to 10 years earlier. At this time, 66.2% of houses and 73.8% of units had sold over the year for less than $400,000. In comparison, 4.0% of houses and 2.3% of units across the capital cities sold for more than $1 million.</span></p>
<p><a href="/images/2015/08/31/2015-08-30--03--sales-price-point-year-june-2005.jpg" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></p>
<h3><strong>% of sales by price point – year to June 2005</strong></h3>
<p><img src="/images/2015/08/31/2015-08-30--03--sales-price-point-year-june-2005.jpg" alt=""></p>
<p><span>Five years ago, around a third of all capital city house sales (34.1%) and 46.4% of units sold for less than $400,000. At the same time, 10.1% of capital city houses and 3.8% of units sold for more than $1 million.</span></p>
<p><span>Click to enlarge</span></p>
<h3>% of sales by price point – year to June 2010</h3>
<p><img src="/images/2015/08/31/2015-08-30--04--sales-price-point-year-june-2010.jpg" alt=""></p>
<p><span><span>Over the past year, Canberra (7.4%) and Sydney (7.8%) have recorded the lowest proportion of house sales under $400,000 over the year. Hobart (61.2%) was the only city to have more than half of all house sales over $1 million. The unit market offers more opportunity to purchase below $400,000 however, each of Sydney (16.3%), Melbourne (35.9%), Perth (38.5%), Darwin (29.7%) and Canberra (43.3%) recorded a majority of unit sales above this price point.</span></span></p>
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<p><a href="/images/2015/08/31/Screen%20Shot%202015-08-31%20at%203.35.58%20PM.png" target="_blank">Click to enlarge</a></p>
<h3>% of sales by price point – year to June 2015</h3>
<p><img src="/images/2015/08/31/Screen%20Shot%202015-08-31%20at%203.35.58%20PM.png" alt="" width="763" height="303"></p>
<p>There was a record high proportion of houses and units sold for more than $1 million over the past 12 months. In Sydney, more than a third of all houses (36.8%) sold for more than $1 million. Melbourne had the second highest proportion of sales over $1 million (17.7%). Although Melbourne had a record high proportion of houses sold over $1 million it was less than half the proportion of sales in excess of $1 million recorded in Sydney. For units, Sydney had the highest proportion of sales over $1 million (11.6%) and was the only capital city in which more than 10% of unit sales were in excess of $1 million. In fact, Sydney had a higher proportion of unit sales over $1 million than each of Brisbane, Adelaide, Hobart, Darwin and Canberra had for houses.</p>
<p>Although we anticipate that the rate of capital growth will slow over the coming year we still expect values to generally rise. As a result we would expect a further decline in the proportion of homes selling below $400,000.</p>
<p><em>Tim Lawless is head of the CoreLogic RP Data research and analytics team and can be contacted <a href="https://blog.corelogic.com.au/author/timlawless/" target="_blank">here</a>.</em></p>
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